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arsenalfh

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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. 12.20 Sandown - Bardd @ 9/4 SkyBet 2.00 Fairyhouse - Castello Sforza @ 6/4 Bet365 3.40 Fairyhouse - Bon Papa @ 10/11 Bet365
  2. First winner up in this thread with Balko Des Flos chasing home Bellshill clear of Don't Touch It. He was giving Bellshill a right race until messing up the 2nd last and looks another good prospect for De Bromhead. Wouldn't give up on Local Show yet. I don't think big fields suit him and back in a race where he can lead I could see him jumping his rivals into the ground. He never looked comfortable running at that pace and made a bad mistake that finished him near the start.
  3. Never really liked Bellshill but he's solid enough here I'd say. Used to give his hurdles a bit of air and came from the pointing scene so you would imagine he will improve for fences. I want to be against Don't Touch It first time over fences given the stable and my original selection was going to be Elliott's Be The Hero who's now a non runner. Balko Des Flos was a bit of a bridle horse over hurdles so you just worry about him putting it all in but he's moved to De Bromhead who has a terrific record with 1st time out chasers and is available at 4/1 without Bellshill. Some bookies are as shor
  4. In the Hennessey I narrowed it down to Henri Parry Morgan, Smad Place, Theatre Guide , Coologue and Local Show. Native River looks pretty solid but 6/1 is a little tight I'd say. I don't think much of the other 2nd season chasers as I reckon they're a bit exposed. Vyta Du Roc disappointed me last season as I thought he could be a decent chaser. Can't see much scope for Un Temps Pour Tout off 158 and Saphir just has had too many opportunities for me. Smad Place should go well with this his yearly target and although he is 11lbs higher he would have won carrying that weight anyway last year
  5. In the Hennessey I narrowed it down to Henri Parry Morgan, Smad Place, Theatre Guide , Coologue and Local Show. Native River looks pretty solid but 6/1 is a little tight I'd say. I don't think much of the other 2nd season chasers as I reckon they're a bit exposed. Vyta Du Roc disappointed me last season as I thought he could be a decent chaser. Can't see much scope for Un Temps Pour Tout off 158 and Saphir just has had too many opportunities for me. Smad Place should go well with this his yearly target and although he is 11lbs higher he would have won carrying that weight anyway last year
  6. Although the ground is drying I really think Zabana wants proper good ground to show his best. The right favourite but I couldn't back him at 15/8 with that in mind and I don't see much if any improvement in him. I quite liked Kitten Rock's debut over fences but that was no where near this level and he did something to his back on his 2nd start which was meant to be minor. Wasn't seen since so I wonder if that injury proved to be a lot more serious and I can take him on. Ttebobb's form looks pretty average now in hindsight and he lost his way towards the end of last season. Not sure going up i
  7. Two picks tomorrow at Wexford. Toe The Line was 102 rated on the flat but Kiely has a poor record with hurdling debutantes so I can take her on while Lettre De Cachet was 2nd in a poor looking maiden hurdle at Galway. Forge Meadow is 2nd favourite but has very similar bumper form to Bargy Lady and comes here off a break unlike the latter. So at the prices Bargy Lady looks the clear pick with the Mullins first time over hurdles factor another positive. 12.25 Wexford - Bargy Lady @ 4/1 Betfair Sympa Des Flos is another horse making it's hurdling debut for Mullins after finishing 2nd in
  8. 12.25 Wexford - Bargy Lady @ 4/1 Betfair Toe The Line was 102 rated on the flat but Kiely has a poor record with hurdling debutantes so I can take him while Lettre De Cachet was 2nd in a poor looking maiden hurdle at Galway. Forge Meadow is 2nd favourite but has very similar bumper form to Bargy Lady and comes here off a break unlike the latter. So at the prices Bargy Lady looks the clear pick with also the Mullins factor first time over hurdles which is another positive.
  9. Some interesting races with Identity Thief, Nichols Canyon and Disko in action at Punchestown but little appeals from a betting point of view apart from After Rain in the opener at Punchestown. Poor run last time but the race was an absolute mess with nothing getting close to the runaway front runner and he probably needed it anyway given the drift. I had him backed in the big handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last January when he was strongly fancied in a fiercely competitive race and can excuse him for that as he ran very keen and was wandering around at times. With those points in mind he loo
  10. 12.40 Punchestown - After Rain @ 9/2 BetVictor Poor run last time but the race was an absolute mess with nothing getting close to the runaway front runner and he probably needed it anyway given the drift. I had him backed in the big handicap hurdle at Leopardstown last January when he was strongly fancied in a fiercely competitive race and can excuse him for that as he ran very keen and was wandering around at times. With those points in mind he looks well handicapped off 124, 1lb higher than when 3rd behind Blue Hell and Desoto County with Henry Higgins back in 5th at Fairyhouse this tim
  11. Colin Tizzard now has the front 2 in the betting for the Gold Cup. Quite incredible.
  12. What a performance from Cue Card. Some horse and he obviously badly needed it. Coneygree shaped like he retained plenty of ability too travelling with the same zest as when he won the Gold Cup but was still left trailing. Cue Card deserved the Gold Cup last year. Hope he arrives at Cheltenham in the same form.
  13. Betting is a long term game. You can't win all the time. Understand the concept of value. Then know all the horse racing basics such as ground, distance, race type and understand how they effect different horses. A lot of my betting is based on trainer angles. Know what trainers improve horses going chasing, what trainers do well in handicaps and so on. You can do the same with jockeys. There are some great podcasts on betting such as the Final Furlong Podcast with talk on horse racing and how to bet too. Read columns by Tony Calvin, Paul Kealy, Simon Rowlands, Kevin Blake, Tony Keen
  14. I'm very surprised My Tent Or Yours is not well odds on here given the poor opposition. He proved he retains ability when coming off a massive absence to finish 2nd in last years Champion Hurdle and goes incredibly well fresh. He also won the Betfair Hurdle on ground the times suggested was much more testing that the soft description advertised alleviating concerns about the ground. Old Guard is coming back hurdling after a disappointing time novice chasing while Ch'tibello has to find the guts of 20lbs to match the favourites form and Melodic Rendezvous is just not the same horse. 1.50 H
  15. Going to throw my selections up here so I can link my write ups on Twitter and so on. Fingers crossed for a profitable season.
  16. I'm very surprised My Tent Or Yours is not well odds on here given the poor opposition. He proved he retains ability when coming off a massive absence to finish 2nd in last years Champion Hurdle and goes incredibly well fresh. He also won the Betfair Hurdle on ground the times suggested was much more testing that the soft description advertised alleviating concerns about the ground. Old Guard is coming back hurdling after a disappointing time novice chasing while Ch'tibello has to find the guts of 20lbs to match the favourites form and Melodic Rendezvous is just not the same horse. 1.50 H
  17. 2.25 Haydock - Western Cape @ 18/1 Betway Yala Enki is a solid enough favourite in these conditions after being dropped a few pounds and seems to go well off a break. However the price looks about right now and I'm keen to take on the next few in the market. Two Taffs needs to step up, Westren Warrior seems to have stalled in his development and the ground is too testing for Caid Du Berlais. The one that sticks out is the lightly raced Western Cape, an 85k purchase with just 5 runs over hurdles. He was only beaten a neck on his reappearance and the winner of that has franked the form and
  18. 2.10 Clonmel - Alelchi Inois @ 9/4 Paddy Power Alelchi Inois sets the standard here after a 2nd in the Galway Plate and a thrashing of Clarcam so I reckon he should be favourite. Ground is key for this horse but Clonmel seems to have missed a good bit of the rain over here as the ground is still yielding good in places on the chase course which is ideal. Outlander ran well on debut for Elliott but needs to build on that and although a lot of people expect him to improve I'm not so sure as it's incredibly hard to get any improvement out of a former Mullins inmate. Monksland has shown himse
  19. I have Portuguese family that are all Portistas so I went over to the Classico. Went to the game when I was young in Antas but and the game lived up to all expectations. Great football, unbelievable atmosphere and drama at the end. Unfortunately Porto couldn't hold out. Would definitely recommend any football fan going over for the game at some point and there's plenty to do in both Porto and Lisbon which are both beautiful cities. Porto are a funny team. They've looked fantastic at times this season including in the Classico but also completely rubbish going forward. Maybe it's because t
  20. Qualification for international tournaments is boring and predictable. Either spice it up or play them all together at the end of the season or in the new year after the Christmas fixtures.
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