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Posts posted by arsenalfh

  1. 3.30 Cheltenham - Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Might Bite is the best horse on Timeform ratings and joint top on RPRs after his astonishing win in the RSA Novices' Chase last year. If he didn't stop when miles clear up the hill he probably would be half a stone clear of a fairly average Gold Cup field and is clearly the best horse in the race. I think the market is afraid of a repeat of his antics but Nico de Boinville knows the horse better now and a repeat is more unlikely. I thought he would be shorter than a 3/1 shot so he looks the clear value in my view.

    29pts - Might Bite @ to win @ 7/2 SkyBet

  2. 4.10 Cheltenham - Plate Handicap Chase

    Again going back to the Power taking over to ride for the first time angle with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69 under these circumstances. On top of that Viconte Du Noyer is down below his last winning mark and has had a wind op which has revived plenty of Tizzard horses in recent times. He's worth an each-way bet at massive prices.

    2pts - Viconte Du Noyer each-way @ 40/1 Bet365 (5 Places)

    5.30 Cheltenham - Kim Muir Handicap Chase

    In the Kim Muir Band Of Blood is ridden by one of the better amateurs who might be underrated (16 wins 12.6 expected in chases) and better trainers (Newland 94 wins 75 expected in handicap chases) so he'll do for me. He's progressed well this season winning on his last two starts and is worth a bet at double figure prices to continue on this run for a duo who are generally underestimated by the market.

    8.4pts - Band Of Blood each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (5 places)

  3. 3.30 Cheltenham - Stayers' Hurdle

    I don't like Yanworth in the stayers as he's an erratic jumper, King horses are usually overrated by the market and he might not even be good enough. Unowhatimeanharry is exposed now at this level and Bacardys needs to improve a ton. I like Supasundae and he's probably a little big at 8/1 as an improver and the form of the Irish Champion may get underestimated by the market after Faugheen's flop. But at 7/2 Sam Spinner has to be the better value. Great jumper, won't mind conditions, really progressive and O'Keefe does pretty well with his hurdlers (15 wins to 13 expected).

    29pts - Sam Spinner to win @ 7/2 BlackType

  4. 2.10 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

    Delta Work had been running in smart company before progressing well in handicaps to qualify for today's final. His mark of 139 is the same rating he runs off in Ireland looks very generous as the handicapper usually adds a couple of pounds to Irish hurdlers to even the playing field. With the Elliott and Russell combination teaming up again Delta Work looks to be a bit of value.

    8.4pts - Delta Work each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (6 places)

  5. 5.30 Cheltenham - Champion Bumper

    Few bets here for me best of which is Didtheyleaveuoutto who has looked a high class bumper horse showing a devastating turn off foot to win twice this season. It's a real surprise that he has been such a drifter but the ground doesn't look too bad at all and he's starting to look a very big price; especially as Gifford has a great record with bumper horses excluding their debuts with 13 wins to 6 expected.

    Mercy Mercy Me also looks one that has been overlooked by the market coming off a break for Fergal O'Brien who as mentioned earlier has 53 wins to 40 expected when horses are coming off breaks of 90 days or more. O'Brien has had a lot of bumper winners this season so the fact he is his only runner here might also be significant.

    6.25pts - Didtheyleaveuotto to win @ 16/1 Betfair

    4pts - Mercy Mercy Me to win @ 25/1 SkyBet

  6. 4.50 Cheltenham - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

    Henderson is probably the man to follow in this race with Style De Garde and top jockey Nico de Boinville on board. Henderson usually leaves a bit more in the tank than the market expects on handicap hurdle with 59 wins to 43 expected and at 14/1 there looks to be a bit of juice in his price.

    5.75pts - Style De Garde each-way @ 14/1 William Hill

  7. 2.10 Cheltenham - RSA Novices' Chase

    I've quite liked Presenting Percy the whole season but he looks nothing better than the right price at 11/4. I also like Monalee but I would have loved to see him in the JLT and use his jumping from the front. Henry's horses are generally quite keen going and don't stay too well (his record over shorter with chasers is much better) so it's a shame to see him line up here.

    In the end I came down on Allysson Monterg at a massive price. Hobson's runners tend to come on a ton for their first experience over fences so he should take a massive step forward here and looks a bit of value.

    1.5pts - Allysson Monterg to win @ 66/1 Bet365

  8. 1.30 Cheltenham - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

    Samcro looks very short on what he has done so far. I would have expected him to be odds against and Next Destination will be stiff opposition particularly with Ruby showing no ill effects following his injury.

    Like I said at the beginning of this thread I will generally be taking a data driven approach here to betting and my systems have highlighted to good bets at bigger prices. Vision Des Flos was a taking winner last time out and is the third highest rated horse on RPRs just 4lbs off the hot favourite Samcro. However it's the jockey booking that really catches the eye as the market really underrates Power when he takes over a horse for the first time with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69. He's worth an each-way bet against the favourite as is Coolanly who runs for a trainer who's horses are underrated fresh. O'Brien has racked up 53 wins to just 40 expected when his horses run after a 90 day or longer break.

    5pts - Vision Des Flos eacy-way @ 16/1 Bet365

    0.7pts - Coolanly each-way @ 125/1 Betfred

  9. Still seething at the shocking ride Davy gave Petit Mouchoir but fair play to Ruby who stayed calm and went an even pace on Footpad. Definitely wrong about Ruby not being fully fit as he looks in exceptional form.

    Bets: 5

    Staked: 40.5pts

    Returned: 0

    Profit: -40.5

  10. 4.50 Cheltenham - National Hunt Chase

    You get a wide range of abilities when looking at jockeys in these amateur races so it's important to have a good pilot on board. Unfortunately the market has the top jockeys covered and there is little value in backing Jamie Codd, Barry O'Neill or Paddy Mullins while the likes of Derek O'Connor are considerably overbet looking at the data. So what jockeys are underrated?

    The two that strike out in the data are Richard Deegan and James King. The former has 13 wins to 6 expected using Betfair SP when riding over hurdles or fences while the latter has 9 winners to 5 expected. Both Keepers Hill and Reigning Supreme are completely unexposed and with these two pilots jocked up, should run better than their odds suggest where you can get around 30 on the exchanges.

    5pts - Keeper Hill to win @ 20/1 SportingBet

    3.5pts - Reigning Supreme to win @ 28/1 SkyBet

  11. 2.50 Cheltenham - Ultima Handicap Chase

    Colin Tizzard has an excellent record with handicap chasers in these high class events (24 wins to 12 expected at the Betfair SP) and a great record at getting horses back after some poor runs. He often uses the wind op in these cases which was seen to great success with Cue Card and he's also been responsible for two first time up winners since the new rule about declaring wind ops came into affect.

    Sizing Codelco has been disappointing this season but is down to a mark of 154 from 160 and comes here after having a wind op. Again I think he might be underrated as his best form in Britain has come in good conditions but he has form from Ireland in soft ground which is usually much worse than what you would experience at Cheltenham in March. On top of that Robbie Power takes the ride who is one of the most underappreciated jockeys by the market so there's enough here to believe this horse should be shorter than 40/1.

    2pts - Sizing Codelco each-way @ 40/1 William Hill (4 Places)

  12. 2.10 Cheltenham - Arkle Novices' Chase

    Cracking race with two high class hurdlers and an upcoming novice chaser. Saint Calvados looks short at the prices as the heavy ground horses get overbet. The Irish horses will be used to ground worse than this and both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir just look more talented individuals as shown by their hurdles form.

    I think Petit Mouchoir is being underrated here considerably. He was a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles and possibly could have won the Fighting Fifth as well if not for falling at the second last. Even at Cheltenham he beat Footpad comfortably despite jumping poorly and going too hard in front. Footpad did beat him by 5L last time at Leopardstown but Petit Mouchoir hit the first two flights and was given a tame ride coming back off a setback so I expect him to improve considerably for the run. There are no signs that he will be worse over the larger obstacles and de Bromhead has a terrific record at the festival with a 30% strike rate at hitting the frame, which is higher than Mullins and second only to Elliott out of the big trainers.

    22pts - Petit Mouchoir to win @ 9/2 Coral

  13. 1.30 Cheltenham - Supreme Novices' Hurdle

    I do wonder if Ruby Walsh is at full fitness for this years festival after making his comeback just a few days ago. Will he have the strength in the saddle? Will his judgement of pace be spot on? In no other sport would an athlete be considered in peak condition at the pinnacle event in his sport just a few days after returning for injury but I don't think the market is accounting for this. So I'm happy to take on Getabird who looks a little short on form anyway, as Menghli Khan looked flat when chasing him home the last day.

    I've come down on Sharjah as the value in this race. Interestingly Patrick Mullins said in a preview that he wasn't very impressed by Kalashnikov's Betfair Hurdle win as they have five novice hurdlers who would beat Bleu Et Rouge with ease. As second string in the Supreme, one of those must be Sharjah. He looked like he was going to win a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Leopardstown with ease before falling at the last and that run puts him just 6lbs off Getabird on RPRs, which doesn't account for how easily he was travelling approaching the finish.

    He disappointed the last time and the ground was put down as the reason for the poor performance. But I actually think the belief that he needs good ground will be a benefit for him here. There's no doubt that you need to be wide on the hurdles track on the Old Course to have a chance in these conditions and Townend might just travel widest of all as he will be desperate to get the best ground possible for this horse. This could be a massive advantage for him in a big field and I really think the heavy ground horses will be overbet today as the track is always in great condition at Cheltenham. Despite their belief that he needs good ground, Sharjah actually won on heavy ground at Gowran Park which is one of the most testing tracks around when it gets wet.

    Given the form of his Leopardstown run, the number of heavy ground horses being overbet and the likelihood of Sharjah being well placed out wide there looks to be some good value in his price today.

    4pts - Sharjah each-way @ 20/1 Bet365 (4 Places)

  14. Unfortunately I've been busy over the winter so couldn't keep this going but on the eve of Cheltenham it's time to get this up a running again.

    Highlight of the flat campaign was 50/1 winner Bless Him in the Britannia and although the second half of the season was slightly disappointing we still came out with some profit.

    Bets: 54

    Profit: +24.95pts

    I bet to win a set total so from now on we'll play to win 100 points per selection.

  15. On 2/13/2018 at 7:29 AM, BJO said:
    The weather forecast in FC ASTANA - SPORTING LISABON should be considered a major factor in this match. Prediction says -20°, but if the game is played with roof at Astana Arena, then of course it wont mean that much. Can anyone provide info?

    Stadium will be covered and air conditioned.


  16. On 12/16/2017 at 2:36 PM, Jimmy2shoes said:

    RIGHT about time some of these price drifts were put forward and questions asked, YIPP sure sure it's the BOOKMAKERS that price horses up not the yard but So Many times prices are short in the evening before race day, then hours and minutes before said race the price drifts like a BARGE!

    Surely this is never a coincidence and when a horse in question does drift ''bookmakers shoving out with confidence'' it's on information received,  YES a member or two will come back with.......What about when it drifts and wins, fair point i say BUT for every drift and WIN - you will find 20 that flop exactly as the market hinted it would.

    Talking out my pocket on this one but i backed Movewiththetimes today in the 12:45 at Cheltenham, last night he was mostly 10/11 - 4/5

    Wasn't a penny for him and he was sent off 11/8 - He ran exactly to his drifting price suggested.

    To quote Gambler Harry Findlay..............................When a fancied horse drifts in price it's like the bookmakers have found out the horse has stood on glass.

    I'll be having my moan and grown on this thread over such blatant ''Horse not even at the start BUT you won't be winning'' Coincidental drifts.

    And that wasn't Barry Geraghty's best ride, he's looking past it these days, YEH i said it, PAST IT,  a blind man could see he was too far back 70% of the race.

    Overnight prices are just completely inaccurate which is why bookmakers take no money on them. It's very hard to price up a race and as a result opening prices usually are not reflective of a horses chance. As more money is placed the market gets more efficient and minutes before the off the prices are far more reflective of a horse's chance of winning.

    11/8 is equivalent to a 42% chance of winning which is hardly a certainty. Movewiththetimes wouldn't have even been expected to win half the time. I'm not saying racing is completely straight but overnight prices are always subject to a lot of movement the next day as the money comes down because it is very difficult to price up a race.

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