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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. 3.30 Cheltenham - Cheltenham Gold Cup Might Bite is the best horse on Timeform ratings and joint top on RPRs after his astonishing win in the RSA Novices' Chase last year. If he didn't stop when miles clear up the hill he probably would be half a stone clear of a fairly average Gold Cup field and is clearly the best horse in the race. I think the market is afraid of a repeat of his antics but Nico de Boinville knows the horse better now and a repeat is more unlikely. I thought he would be shorter than a 3/1 shot so he looks the clear value in my view. 29pts - Might Bite @ to win @ 7/
  2. 130 Ch: Stormy Ireland210 Ch: Duca De Thaix250 Ch: Santini330 Ch: Might Bite410 Ch: Caid Du Berlais450 Ch: Early Doors530 Ch: Top Gamble
  3. Delta Work won the Pertemps earlier today to put us just about in the black for the festival. Bets: 15 Staked: 141.75pts Returned: 143.48pts Profit: +1.73
  4. 4.10 Cheltenham - Plate Handicap Chase Again going back to the Power taking over to ride for the first time angle with the Irishman winning 87 times when the market expects just 69 under these circumstances. On top of that Viconte Du Noyer is down below his last winning mark and has had a wind op which has revived plenty of Tizzard horses in recent times. He's worth an each-way bet at massive prices. 2pts - Viconte Du Noyer each-way @ 40/1 Bet365 (5 Places) 5.30 Cheltenham - Kim Muir Handicap Chase In the Kim Muir Band Of Blood is ridden by one of the better amateurs who mi
  5. 3.30 Cheltenham - Stayers' Hurdle I don't like Yanworth in the stayers as he's an erratic jumper, King horses are usually overrated by the market and he might not even be good enough. Unowhatimeanharry is exposed now at this level and Bacardys needs to improve a ton. I like Supasundae and he's probably a little big at 8/1 as an improver and the form of the Irish Champion may get underestimated by the market after Faugheen's flop. But at 7/2 Sam Spinner has to be the better value. Great jumper, won't mind conditions, really progressive and O'Keefe does pretty well with his hurdlers (15 win
  6. 2.10 Cheltenham - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Delta Work had been running in smart company before progressing well in handicaps to qualify for today's final. His mark of 139 is the same rating he runs off in Ireland looks very generous as the handicapper usually adds a couple of pounds to Irish hurdlers to even the playing field. With the Elliott and Russell combination teaming up again Delta Work looks to be a bit of value. 8.4pts - Delta Work each-way @ 10/1 SkyBet (6 places)
  7. 130 Ch: Invitation Only210 Ch: Delta Work250 Ch: Balko Des Flos330 Ch: Sam Spinner410 Ch: Viconte Du Noyer450 Ch: Salsaretta530 Ch: Band of Blood
  8. Style De Garde ran close in the Fred Winter to return some place money. Few more bets for tomorrow coming in the morning. Bets: 11 Staked: 75.15pts Returned: 25.88 Profit: -49.27
  9. 5.30 Cheltenham - Champion Bumper Few bets here for me best of which is Didtheyleaveuoutto who has looked a high class bumper horse showing a devastating turn off foot to win twice this season. It's a real surprise that he has been such a drifter but the ground doesn't look too bad at all and he's starting to look a very big price; especially as Gifford has a great record with bumper horses excluding their debuts with 13 wins to 6 expected. Mercy Mercy Me also looks one that has been overlooked by the market coming off a break for Fergal O'Brien who as mentioned earlier has 53 wins t
  10. 4.50 Cheltenham - Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Henderson is probably the man to follow in this race with Style De Garde and top jockey Nico de Boinville on board. Henderson usually leaves a bit more in the tank than the market expects on handicap hurdle with 59 wins to 43 expected and at 14/1 there looks to be a bit of juice in his price. 5.75pts - Style De Garde each-way @ 14/1 William Hill
  11. 2.10 Cheltenham - RSA Novices' Chase I've quite liked Presenting Percy the whole season but he looks nothing better than the right price at 11/4. I also like Monalee but I would have loved to see him in the JLT and use his jumping from the front. Henry's horses are generally quite keen going and don't stay too well (his record over shorter with chasers is much better) so it's a shame to see him line up here. In the end I came down on Allysson Monterg at a massive price. Hobson's runners tend to come on a ton for their first experience over fences so he should take a massive step forw
  12. 1.30 Cheltenham - Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Samcro looks very short on what he has done so far. I would have expected him to be odds against and Next Destination will be stiff opposition particularly with Ruby showing no ill effects following his injury. Like I said at the beginning of this thread I will generally be taking a data driven approach here to betting and my systems have highlighted to good bets at bigger prices. Vision Des Flos was a taking winner last time out and is the third highest rated horse on RPRs just 4lbs off the hot favourite Samcro. However it's the jockey boo
  13. 130 Ch: Vision Des Flos210 Ch: Allysson Monterg250 Ch: Diamond King330 Ch: Min410 Ch: Urgent De Gregaine450 Ch: Style De Garde530 Ch: Didtheyleaveuoutto
  14. Still seething at the shocking ride Davy gave Petit Mouchoir but fair play to Ruby who stayed calm and went an even pace on Footpad. Definitely wrong about Ruby not being fully fit as he looks in exceptional form. Bets: 5 Staked: 40.5pts Returned: 0 Profit: -40.5
  15. 4.50 Cheltenham - National Hunt Chase You get a wide range of abilities when looking at jockeys in these amateur races so it's important to have a good pilot on board. Unfortunately the market has the top jockeys covered and there is little value in backing Jamie Codd, Barry O'Neill or Paddy Mullins while the likes of Derek O'Connor are considerably overbet looking at the data. So what jockeys are underrated? The two that strike out in the data are Richard Deegan and James King. The former has 13 wins to 6 expected using Betfair SP when riding over hurdles or fences while the latter
  16. 2.50 Cheltenham - Ultima Handicap Chase Colin Tizzard has an excellent record with handicap chasers in these high class events (24 wins to 12 expected at the Betfair SP) and a great record at getting horses back after some poor runs. He often uses the wind op in these cases which was seen to great success with Cue Card and he's also been responsible for two first time up winners since the new rule about declaring wind ops came into affect. Sizing Codelco has been disappointing this season but is down to a mark of 154 from 160 and comes here after having a wind op. Again I think he mi
  17. 2.10 Cheltenham - Arkle Novices' Chase Cracking race with two high class hurdlers and an upcoming novice chaser. Saint Calvados looks short at the prices as the heavy ground horses get overbet. The Irish horses will be used to ground worse than this and both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir just look more talented individuals as shown by their hurdles form. I think Petit Mouchoir is being underrated here considerably. He was a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles and possibly could have won the Fighting Fifth as well if not for falling at the second last. Even at Cheltenham he beat Footpad com
  18. 1.30 Cheltenham - Supreme Novices' Hurdle I do wonder if Ruby Walsh is at full fitness for this years festival after making his comeback just a few days ago. Will he have the strength in the saddle? Will his judgement of pace be spot on? In no other sport would an athlete be considered in peak condition at the pinnacle event in his sport just a few days after returning for injury but I don't think the market is accounting for this. So I'm happy to take on Getabird who looks a little short on form anyway, as Menghli Khan looked flat when chasing him home the last day. I've come down o
  19. 130 Ch: Sharjah 210 Ch: Petit Mouchoir 250 Ch: Sizing Codelco 330 Ch: Melon 410 Ch: Benie Des Dieux 450 Ch: Reigning Supreme 530 Ch: De Plotting Shed
  20. Unfortunately I've been busy over the winter so couldn't keep this going but on the eve of Cheltenham it's time to get this up a running again. Highlight of the flat campaign was 50/1 winner Bless Him in the Britannia and although the second half of the season was slightly disappointing we still came out with some profit. Bets: 54 Profit: +24.95pts I bet to win a set total so from now on we'll play to win 100 points per selection.
  21. Stadium will be covered and air conditioned. http://www.record.pt/futebol/futebol-nacional/liga-nos/sporting/detalhe/leao-defronta-astana-em-estadio-com-ar-condicionado.html
  22. A lot of the eastern European teams come into this round of games with no competitive football under their belt as the new season hasn't started yet. Anyone have any data as to how they perform under these circumstances?
  23. Overnight prices are just completely inaccurate which is why bookmakers take no money on them. It's very hard to price up a race and as a result opening prices usually are not reflective of a horses chance. As more money is placed the market gets more efficient and minutes before the off the prices are far more reflective of a horse's chance of winning. 11/8 is equivalent to a 42% chance of winning which is hardly a certainty. Movewiththetimes wouldn't have even been expected to win half the time. I'm not saying racing is completely straight but overnight prices are always subject to a lo
  24. 3.50 Musselburgh B Fifty Two was just touched off in an apprentice handicap last time and now that Harrison Shaw can use his claim with the headgear back on he has a good chance today at the prices. B Fifty Two win @ 15/2 William Hill
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