traf
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Posts posted by traf
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Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System I have found that quite often it is more profitable to back the favourite and the draw, rather than lay the underdog.
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Re: Melvinh Monday nite dog bets Betfair has prices for the 9.07. T1 is 1.51 at present
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006
Best price currently is 11/1 with bluesqIs that a record? Sporting Odds went from 14/1 to 7/1 on Watch the Dove within four minutes of me posting. Nothing else I can see for this afternoon, but there are a few races this evening that might produce something. -
Re: Melvinh Monday nite dog bets I can't seem to find a market for the 9.37!
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I hadn't really made any plans!:unsure It just appears that to back the favs in small fields is a loss making exercise.
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Re: Needs A Mention I don't think Mrs Thorpe's horses are running at Newton Abbot after all. Cristophe is rebooked for Worcester on friday. Piety goes in the 4.20 at Ripon.
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Spot on SLH: whenever i notice one of these 3 horse races, i tend to have a punt on the outsider. The 13/2 winner on Friday traded at 28 on betfair. I only had £2 on it, but in my eyes: it's a bet for nothing. Secondly, according to Mr. Massey: the fate of favourites in all races of 4 or less runners from 11/01/97 to 04/08/06 is not good! A £100 straight win bet on all the favs would see you £18136 in debt! Surely the strategy is to lay the favs in 4 or less runner races.
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Re: Lay the Tipsters Cheers guys. I got yesterday's pricewise selections from the massively-inferior betfair forum. Am I right in thinking Pricewise only tips on Saturdays?
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Re: Lay the Tipsters OK folks, I stand corrected! It must be these orthopaedic shoes!:rollin
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Re: Lay the Tipsters
If Kibara had won the race, you would have won 80 after commission, but lost 84 on the lay. With my figures you're guaranteed a profit.
Sorry about it being in Portuguese, but I think you get the picture. Best wishes, search google for "trade betfair" and you should get some nice tutorials.Selecção Probabilidades Parada (EUR) Tipo de licitação Colocada Lucro/prejuÃzo (EUR) Kibara 2' date='68 50,00 Apostar a favor 05-Ago-06 12:25 -50,00 Kibara * 2,21 69,32 Apostar contra 69,32 *Média de probabilidades: On Off Sub-total de apostas a favor: -50,00 Sub-total de apostas contra: 69,32 Sub-total do mercado: 19,32 Comissão @ 4.76%: 0,92 Total LÃquido do Mercado: 18,40 
Os Ganhos e Perdas mostrados são valores lÃquidos depois de comissão. Todas as horas sãoUKT ?
excepto indicação em contrário. -
Re: Lay the Tipsters No it's fine , I can get the gist of it despite it being in Portuguese. I just thought if you had backed 50 @ 2.68, the lay would have been 60.63 @ 2.21, guaranteeing a profit of 10.12 after commission whether it won or lost.
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Re: Lay the Tipsters I take it those figures don't take betfair commissions into account?
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Re: Profitable Lay System Cheers Danny. Now that i can understand!:$
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Re: Profitable Lay System I'm obviously missing something here!:wall If I was to lay a 40/1 horse, my minimum liability is £80, is it not? That means I'd need a huge bank, surely. PS I know we're not supposed to mention the £'s, just pts, but it would really help me out here if somebody could explain it to me.:hope
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Re: Lay the Tipsters Results: Palo Verde: Backed 1.82, Layed 1.77 Profit +1.41 Ouija Board: Backed 2.26, Layed 2.35 Profit -1.91 (it actually went down to 2.24 just before the off) Kibara: Backed 2.68, Layed 2.21 Profit +18.40 Granston: Backed 4.2, Layed 3.14 Profit +16.24 Red Rock Canyon: Backed 1.74, Layed 1.61 Profit +3.85 Argentine: Backed 2.8, Layed 2.92 Profit -2.32 (it went down to 2.82 30 seconds after I closed position) I'm obviously missing a trick here, I don't get the figures to tally like that.
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Re: Saturday Placepot.
35.0 to 11.5 on betfair!:loonThis Beckenhems secret is being gambled on like... -
Re: Lay the Tipsters Pricewise / Tom Segal Race For The Stars 2.30 Goodwood 1pt win @ 18-1 with ***** (16-1 B365, Bluebear, Boyles, James & Viktor) Tax Free 3.05 Goodwood 2pts win @ 8-1 with B365, Boyles & James (7-1 Billy, & Bluebear, 13-2 Joe , 6-1 Badblokes) One More Round 3.05 Goodwood 1pt win @ 16-1 generally
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Re: Profitable Lay System What size of bank will I need to start with to follow these lays?
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Re: Half Time Full Time TV SPECIALS I think this could work well, you know. I've seen plenty of games where the away team has scored in the first half and then gone on to lose 2-1, 3-1 etc.
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Re: Needs A Mention
Sorry folks, but I forgot to update this. Mrs Thorpe had has 3 runners out this week: 2 winners and a 4th place. She is sending Faddad and Cristophe to Newton Abbot on Monday: might be worth a look. Her last 8 horses have produced 3 winners, 4 seconds and a fourth.Thorpe had a winner and a 2nd today. From 12 runners this month she has had 6 winners and 4 seconds. One to watch. -
Re: Nottingham 04/08
11/8 winner and about bloody time too. Not aftereventing, but I had an 11/8 winner on the Bangor thread too today! 2 x 2pt singles and the obligatory 1 pt double!:ok Returned 15pts. I'm hoping for a better August than July. I know I don't often put my picks up on here, but trust me: I had a mare in July. Only some excellent tips off you guys have kept me afloat and I aim to repay some of you this month! PL: undoubtedly the best!:nanaLeo McGarry 7.05. Beat 5 or 6 of todays rivals well at beverley recently. An extra 5lbs should matter too much judging by how well he won last time. However i can't pick my nose at the moment.:wall -
Re: Bangor 04/08 At last!;)
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Re: Fridays bankers Eddie Jock should have won comfortably by all accounts. Missed the break and was left a good way behind. Ran really well and went through the field, just not quite getting to the winner Just Dust who was backed from 35.0 to 13.0 on betfair in the last 10 mins before the off.
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Re: Fridays bankers
Ding dong! Another winner!:clapgood aftie, todays nap pick thirsk 15.40 SOMERSAULT Taking on a short priced one but still confident we wont be far away.:hope :hope :gimme :beer g/l silverbuck
Yarmouth 09/08
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Yarmouth 09/08
Leo McGarry was a winner for me in here the other day. Ran well and should go close again: not a great price though.