liquidglass

Harris making me happy twice in a row!
Aryna Sabalenka to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.61 with Pinnacle
As much as I'd like to see Krejcikova win this, she's the underdog and perhaps a bigger one than the odds suggest. She was absolutely tired at the end of the previous match and those fitness problems run deeper. Even if the physios produce a small miracle, she'll have an in-form opponent to beat.

I hear what you say, well...depending on what page you are reading on that winning book. I have always noticed in the past that knowing how a person played in a previous game can sometimes severly impair one's judgement of the next game. Better to just stay with the score minus opinion most times. The Brengle game could really be where she found her mojo. Me thinks!!!

I hear what you say, well...depending on what page you are reading on that winning book. I have always noticed in the past that knowing how a person played in a previous game can sometimes severly impair one's judgement of the next game. Better to just stay with the score minus opinion most times. The Brengle game could really be where she found her mojo. Me thinks!!!

HOPING TO TURN IT UP TODAY ON Spider's Web
Berretini to win and both players to win a set 6/4
Basilashvili to win a set 2/5
Lloyd Harris to win a set 1/3
Sakkari/Kvitova over 21.5 games 8/11  @bet 365 (Advice 8/10) Good luck all

Surprisingly I got off to a good start yester day on my Spiders Web segment with all the picks ending up as outright winners. This really puts me under pressure for a repeat of the dose. I believe that I have done so well in private on this grand slam to be confident of following up. Here we go.
A Popyrin 1/1
Alex Molcan /Schwartzman over 31.5 games 4/7 (Alt handicap)
Sloane Stephens to win a set 2/5
Tiafoe/Rublev over 34.5 (Alternative handicaps) 4/7 @paddypower
 
Good luck All!!!

Surprisingly I got off to a good start yester day on my Spiders Web segment with all the picks ending up as outright winners. This really puts me under pressure for a repeat of the dose. I believe that I have done so well in private on this grand slam to be confident of following up. Here we go.
A Popyrin 1/1
Alex Molcan /Schwartzman over 31.5 games 4/7 (Alt handicap)
Sloane Stephens to win a set 2/5
Tiafoe/Rublev over 34.5 (Alternative handicaps) 4/7 @paddypower
 
Good luck All!!!

I will be starting my daily nap called Spiders Web which will run right through to the final of the US Open. I will not be individually giving reasons for each pick as they will be picks that will come from a mixture of form, matchups and last minute odd movements. I will be chosing these picks with the aim of making some considerable daily profits. We all know that there are no bankers in this game but I can apply mathematical wisdom and clutch perception to eek out a winning corner here. 
Kontaveit to win a set 1/4
Otte to win a set 1/3
Gracheva +5.5 8/11
K. Pliskova 2/5 (Karolina)
@50 staked = 50 x 3.03 @ 201.51 bet365.com
Good Luck all!

I will be starting my daily nap called Spiders Web which will run right through to the final of the US Open. I will not be individually giving reasons for each pick as they will be picks that will come from a mixture of form, matchups and last minute odd movements. I will be chosing these picks with the aim of making some considerable daily profits. We all know that there are no bankers in this game but I can apply mathematical wisdom and clutch perception to eek out a winning corner here. 
Kontaveit to win a set 1/4
Otte to win a set 1/3
Gracheva +5.5 8/11
K. Pliskova 2/5 (Karolina)
@50 staked = 50 x 3.03 @ 201.51 bet365.com
Good Luck all!

Konteviet to beat Teichmann
I do think Konteviet is worth backing to go deep. I watched all her matches in Cleveland. Her ability to take the ball early and redirect, was very very good. Rock solid backhand, which is going to help her nullify the left handed Teichmann. Teichmann had a very good Cinci Masters  (Osaka, Bencic, Pliskova) but I think two of those opponents were under cooked and not ready to play. 
In the Tie break that Konteviet played against Begu in the Cleveland final, she  never dropped a point on her serve, and played the breaker behind (always serving to catch up). Her mental fortitude was that of a Champion, and her decision making and shot exection under pressure ... excellent!
For me the kicker is that Konteviet is 13 of 15 when playing against opponents ranked 50+ in the last 10 months.
Brooksby to beat Fritz
Something not quite clicking with Taylor Fritz at the moment. He lost first match at Citi Open (Kudla 6-4 6-2), Canadian Open (Duckworth 7-6, 6-3) and Western and Southern (Ramos Vinolas 4-6 6-4 6-4) . For me he had a huge drop off in holding serve.  Kudla broke him 5 times in 9, Duckworth 3 in 8 and Vinolas 4 in 15.  At the BB&T Atlanta for example, he lost to Isner in final and held his serve 58 of 59 serve games. So compared to that he's had 3 bad matches (serving) in a row. 
He won his 1st round match against De Minaur which is no big deal for me. The Aussie simply has no weapons to really hurt anyone. So he's fast and fit ... big deal. Everyone is fast and fit! But De Minaur did spank him 6-1 in the 3rd set, which again says his big weapon (serving) is not quite clicking.
Brooksby is on a massive roll. Ranking coming down,  auto qualifying, and going deep at the Citi Open.  His game is rock solid, and at 21 years, is looking like the next star (with Korda) of US tennis. At the Citi Open he held serve 49/52 times.  I would be looking for the straight win, or at least over 33 games here. 
My low priced banker   oh oh !
Hurkacz, Hubert v Seppi, Andreas 2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.09 Pospisil, Vasek v Ivashka, Ilya 2-Way Odds (12) 2    1.26 Harris, Lloyd v Escobedo, Ernesto 2-Way Odds (12) 1    1.24  
Not sure why everything is starting at 6pm (SA time) and 5pm UK time today?
 

We all know pretty much about Nakashima and his potential plus home advantage. But to take him -2.5 sets against a player that is well under the radar cannot be very prudent. Trust me!!

Is this the same Paire that was taking pride in playing like a loser only a few feeks ago? How quickly things can change. His unpredictable character will probably still never change just like Mr Fognini.

Is this the same Paire that was taking pride in playing like a loser only a few feeks ago? How quickly things can change. His unpredictable character will probably still never change just like Mr Fognini.

Interesting stats - however, not relevant to the point I was making. My point was that his break point saved numbers seem lower than they used to be - although as I said I have not checked, it's just a 'feel' I get from watching his matches (which is ironic as you suggested I haven't been watching his matches). 
The stats that would be relevant are a comparison between Nadal's break point saved numbers from two or three years ago and now. Also, not all break points are created equal. Some carry a great deal more pressure than others, for example Nadal failed to save break point against Harris and that break point was also match point and it seems to me that he's losing more 'key' break points than he used to. 
Finally, I never said Nadal's decline would be exclusively on account of declining break point saved numbers - It will be a part of the picture, but only a part and you're right to say that other stats like first serve percentage and break points converted are also important.

Well, you talked about his last 2 matches but you did not mention anything about his foot problems. Without counting his last match he only has been defeated by Rublev, Tsitsipas, Sascha and Djokovic during this year. He won in Barcelona and Rome and only the best Nole I have seen in the last years separated him from winning the FO. That being said, I have to say that I found really odd the reason you gave to explain Nadal's decline (the break points saved thing). When you play against the best players crucial points usually decide the outcome of the match but you only mention the break points saved..., what about the break points converted? Or what about all the other important aspects as 1st serves in play, 1st and 2nd serve points won,etc.? Anyways, let's see how Nadal has done in that aspect (BP's saved) during this year (only against the best players he has played).

Tsitsipas - AO - 3/5 (60%) 
Rublev - Montecarlo - 8/15 (53%) 
Tsitsipas - Barcelona - 11/13 (85%)
Sascha - Madrid - 3/6 (50%)
Sascha - Rome 9/10 (90%)
Nole - Rome 5/8 (63%)
Nole - FO 14/22 (64%)
Honestly, I don't think these stats are bad (and notice that 4 of those 7 matches were matches that Nadal lost). Actually, in ALL those matches his opponent had worse stats than him on BP's saved (except for the match he played against Sascha in Madrid were both players have a 50%).
Nadal's decline will be a matter of age, not " a bad % of BP's saved..."

Pliskova needs her head examined. She is just too mentally fragile to be doing business in the WTA. Maybe she was expecting Barty to give her an arm-chair ride to the victory podium. Gutless turd!!!

Pliskova needs her head examined. She is just too mentally fragile to be doing business in the WTA. Maybe she was expecting Barty to give her an arm-chair ride to the victory podium. Gutless turd!!!

Reading from page 1 of this thread, it becomes so apparent how this indulgence almost seems a complete waste of time. If this forum was a university then most of our parents would have given up paying our school fees from us being too dumb to excel....Always hopeful but never really coming to the knowledge of the truth. It is like trying to catch the wind in the palm of your hand to show someone as evidence. Hahahaha!

Not sure what you're talking about, I think most of us had good two weeks!
Karolina Pliskova (+1.5 sets) to beat Ashleigh Barty at 1.75 with Pinnacle
I usually like to protect my betting a bit in the second GS weeks and this one was no exception. Just didn't have any strong feelings and the first week was so good that there was no need to push things. I'm going to take Pliskova, though, after considering everything. Barty hasn't quite faced anyone with a good serve so far and only one in-form player in Kerber as well. Pliskova took a set off Barty in Stuttgart and now the conditions favor her even more.

Was the breathing problem a result of the home support? I am a bit confused.

Sonego really looks like a novice on grass. Just cannot get his footing right. Maybe it is the speed of the Federer shots messing him up.

I think it is the end for Fed today. I watched all three matches he played. Against Mannarino he struggled. Gasquet was already defeated before he stepped on court. His game was like hitting marshmallows for Fed. Fed played poorly against Norrie, but Norrie actually played worse.He looked a bundle of nerves.
Fed's backhand slice return will just not cut it against a really solid, aggressive opponent. The forehand looks a little flaky, with a lot of unforced errors coming from that side. 
It seems that the new grass at Wimbledon is a little slower, and this definitely helps Sonego. Fed would actually love a fast court, where the sliced serve works well, and the slice return stays down and slides. Also the problem with a slower court is that rallies are a few shots longer, as players get to balls they normally would not.
Longer rallies hurt Fed, and stop him from shortening the points (by coming to the net). Federer at 2.5 to 10 is a sucker bet that should be avoided.
 

Raducanu vs Tomljanovic
I would want to believe that I have taken enough time to watch Raducanu to know where to place her current level. Tomljanovic is just a different variety of the same level of opposition that Raducanu has already conquered. I really cannot think of any potent weapon that Tomljanovic has in her arsenal that could do significant damage to this massive British talent. She just knows how to get herself into rallies with that old school chipped return of serve. Her change of pace and racket head acceleration during rallies is so mesmerizingly breath-taking. Provided the reality of what she is trying to accomplish does not consume her, I see her coming out victorious again. Especially now that she is becoming more popular, I just see the home support being too heavy for Tomljanovic to handle . Raducanu is also very vocal and pumped up during play and could severely distract her opponent with those in-play celebrations. Raducanu to continue her run alongside the English football team.
 

Raducanu vs Tomljanovic
I would want to believe that I have taken enough time to watch Raducanu to know where to place her current level. Tomljanovic is just a different variety of the same level of opposition that Raducanu has already conquered. I really cannot think of any potent weapon that Tomljanovic has in her arsenal that could do significant damage to this massive British talent. She just knows how to get herself into rallies with that old school chipped return of serve. Her change of pace and racket head acceleration during rallies is so mesmerizingly breath-taking. Provided the reality of what she is trying to accomplish does not consume her, I see her coming out victorious again. Especially now that she is becoming more popular, I just see the home support being too heavy for Tomljanovic to handle . Raducanu is also very vocal and pumped up during play and could severely distract her opponent with those in-play celebrations. Raducanu to continue her run alongside the English football team.
 

You have got to remember that Jabeur beat Muguruza who is a former Wimbledon champion from losing the first set which means she has that fighting spirit that you need to win these big matches which probably why she threw up before closing the match. It wlll be tough against her opponent. But Jabeur does have better form on the grass while her opponent has not played a top player at this tournament yet. Also her opponent did struggle against Watson at Eastbourne and grass is not her favourite surface. So the match could go either way

Swiatek to beat Jabeur with at 1.72 with bet365
Swiatek said that she had no expectations for this grass season which obviously was a tactic to remain out of the radar in Wimbledon, and it seems it's working. She only played a couple of matches in Eastbourne, beating Watson and losing against Kasatkina. Here, she has destroyed Hsieh (6-4, 6-4), Zvonareva (6-1, 6-3) and Begu (6-1, 6-0). Jabeur is playing incredibly well, but I'm seeing a lot of similarities between her and Ostapenko. Both players had a lot of success on her preparation tournaments. Jabeur won in Birmingham while Ostapenko won in Eastbourne. Ostapenko destroyed Leylah but then she had a hard battle against Kasatkina (6-1, 3-6, 8-6), and it definitely took its toll on her. She was beating easily Tomljanovic but at the end of the second set her body and her mind said "enough". Jabeur had a hard battle against Muguruza and she even threw up before closing the match. I think Jabeur can follow the same steps than Ostapenko. She can be mentally and physically exhausted after that match. That's something I have seen several times on this sport ("after a big victory comes a big defeat"). These players only have played once before (Washington 2019) and the pole won. I think Swiatek still has a lot to give here, mentally and physically, and that's why I pick her for this match. She will be the fresher player.