Posts posted by liquidglass
54 minutes ago, marzipan said:
Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jamue Munar at 1.53 with Bet365
Youngster Alcaraz is flying. He was so good against Casper Ruud. He has a very mature game for his age. His serves were very effective. I dont like Munar's serves. Alcaraz should beat Munar easily.
I half agree with almost all you have said aside from the end where you make what i will consider a sweeping statement "Alcaraz should beat Munar easily" (I wish tennis was that straightforward) I think your emotions are getting in the way here. Alcaraz is not really flying as such, that is if you consider beating Lopez and a rusty Ruud as demonstrable flight. Ruud was short of match practice and just appeared to get a couple of games under his belt for monte carlo so could not be used as any sort of gauge. This really is a local derby with Munar in my opinion having the best credentials to put forward in a bid for the title. Should be fascinating
1 hour ago, AgaRadwanska said:
can't really count a random match from the start of 2017.
It is definitely not random by any means. Beating in 2017 confirmed again in 2020 masters. They both play similar styles where I believe Agut will always have a decent chance against him on a good day. However I will be sticking to Medvedev with Agut carrying a handicap of number of games already played including the last 6sets in 2 matches.
3 hours ago, darko08 said:
Rybakina (-2,5 Games) to beat Sorribes at 1.73 with William Hill
I add this one. Rybakina is starting to play slightly better after some disappointing performances in Australia. In Dubai she already played a pretty decent match against Jabeur after destroying Saisai and now she has beat a really dangerous opponent in her first match here (Kanepi, 6-4, 6-0). Sorribes has beat Pera (6-2, 2-6, 7-5) and Brady (3-6, 6-4, 6-1). I'm not impressed by that win over Brady cause Brady has played horrible since her match against Osaka. She was destroyed in her last match against Kontaveit in Doha (6-1, 6-2) and she played horrible against Sorribes. She did a lot of errors and her numbers on serve were extremely poor. She even had to receive treatment for cramps during the third set. I haven't seen the match but I'm impressed to see that Pera lost against Sorribes when she was leading the third set 5-1. She even wasted some MPs. I don't know how was that but when a player wastes a 5-1 against a player like Sorribes is cause she did something wrong (anyone can tell me how was that?). I also like the fact that Rybakina will be more fresh cause Sorribes has spent 5 hours on court in her 2 matches here.
I guess right thinking would suggest Rybakina on the basis that Sorribes Tormo should finally be running out of steam having played all those matches. Rybakina herself has questionable form and it remains to be seen whether her victory over Kanepi was as good as the score suggested. I think Kanepi imploded from too many matches played as opposed to the thrashing. -2.5 will be deemed a sensible pick if Sorribes Turbo does not turn up. I strongly believe that Sorribes will ram up the turbo and really make this one messy for Rybakina even if she is to end up winning. I have been pondering over the clash of styles all day, Tormo hitting up and Rybakina hitting flat and hard....and missing a few too. I would want to think that Sorribes has already beaten a mixture of players that would already cater for this type of player in Rybakina. Its so very close. Sorribes Turbo for me here!!
Tsitsipas vs Dzumhur
Tsitsipas is one of the subjects of enquiry in this tournament as I continue to look for matches where players have just been priced on ranking and reputation alone. Tsitsipas in my opinion has played way too many matches compared to a fresh Dzumhur who looks eager and ready to swing. Also Tsitsipas has not been known to manage energy levels very well during matches ending up most times playing three sets when he should have played two, or suddenly losing court positioning during long rallies from playing too many flamboyant shots as opposed to sensible. I just cannot see him give Dzumhur a +5.5 start especially when you consider that he is 1-3 in the head to head department. Again, I will have some of that, thank you. Dzumhur +5.5 is the sensible bet here. H2H should still have a loud voice in this one. Good luck all!!!!
I think Sanders is way too fresh to be paraded at 9/2 against Pegula who should really be cooling off now after the amount of tennis already played. The WTA is so vast with talents now that most of the middle - top tier players focus on what part of the year to play well. So it is now not about who is better (maybe to an extent yes) or who is the higher seed, It is more about who is most likely to play well at the current tournament looking back at their season. While Sanders may or may not win, the handicap is way off here @ +5.5 handicap 11/10? I will certainly have some of that. Other players to watch who are in the groove are Stojanovic/Kalinskaya who should be very competitive. They should both be listed as win/to win a set materials. Good luck all!
1 hour ago, darko08 said:
I haven't seen Sinner against Gaston but he could have lost against Barrere (Barrere was serving for the match but he took very bad decisions on that game and he finally lost). In Montpellier Sinner took a medical timeout in his match against Bedene for some back problems. I remember he said in an interview that his back problems did not affect his game and he said he lost because he did not play well but then he did not play in Rotterdam... I had doubts about Medvedev but he has won easily against Gerasimov. I think Medvedev should win... but still worried about his intentions. I would not like to put money on him and then see him repeating the same pathetic performance he showed against Simon. Opinions on this match..?
Something does not feel right about backing Medvedev regardless of his easy victory over Gerasimov. And since Simov himself had played so much tennis prior, he really could not be used as a yardstick. I do not care about what Sinner played against Gaston or Barrere. I am inclined to rely on his pedigree as a man who is going to eventually reside among the top 5 sooner or later. There will be nothing strange if he does a Djokovic on us and finds real form to push into the later stages. Odds movement is positive.
Francis Tiafoe vs Nicholas Jarry
well, we all know that Tiafoe is not a natural claycourter compared to Jarry who loves to play on the surface. Tiafoe has already had two matches on clay in Buenos Aires where I would say he played okay against Munar who he lost to. Jarry on the other hand has had 4 competitive matches on clay beating Munar in Cordoba in the process. I really believe that Jarry has had just enough matches to set him up well for his home tournament in Santiago. One thing most tournament organizers always do, is to try to schedule their matches in such a way that their best home representative is put in a prime slot to hopefully provide value for money which they do most times. I took Jarry early yesterday to win a set at a very huge stake. I really believe he has what it takes to go further and win here. Verdict: Jarry to beat Tiafoe
3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
We've got way too many tournaments on the cards this week.
Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.61 with Pinnacle
Still a difference in quality and I remember RBA liking the courts in the Middle East most of the time. He looked really good two weeks ago and has had enough time off to be ready for this. Unless Opelka fires big time on serve, he'll be in trouble all around. Slight value on RBA I feel.
I just feel that whatever the quality that is the difference, you could have been better taking any other pick, including from the WTA, but this one. This has the feeling of watching a guy juggling with sword-swallowing. In truth Opelka is not far from the very top when he is serving well and he serves well most times. In fact, I think betwise, Opelka can be considered a more productive player than Bautista. At least I know that I can rely on him to win or cover handicaps than Bautista anytime. It is way too early in the week to be burning emotional energy waiting for a win. Good luck anyways!!
32 minutes ago, Torque said:
I'd say Coric was just being Coric - he's not a consistent player and that's why he's ranked where he is. He's beaten all the best players, but if you're also losing regularly when you shouldn't then it's hard to get established at the very top of the game. Also, the way Fucsovics dealt with him didn't reflect well on Nishikori. If Fucsovics could beat Coric so easily, then Nishikori should have been able to take at least a set. As it was, he squandered a break lead in the first set and that ended up being the key to the match as he lost a tight second.
Well, as you must know with tennis and other sports, match ups matter a lot. On the face of it it certainly looks like not reflecting well on Nishikori. Coric relies heavily on first-strike tennis playing well behind his first serve. Nishikori just could not find a way to deal with the Coric serve and always played second fiddle. Conversely, Fuscovis neutralized Coric's game with chipped returns and was able to continuously take control of the rallies by the second or third shot. Coric knew he was well beaten by the end of the first set and started coming in to the net in the second set in typical suicide fashion. He seemed lost and just could not cope with the variation coming off the Fuscovics racket. It really pisses me off when i see a player being slapped up comprehensively and still showing clenched fists on every odd point they get. Coric was just being Coric as you say. I really cannot see him improving and going any further in his career from the way he plays. His game needs a lot of transformation work.
Ramos is really a beast. Never gets tired. I hope he does not come back from the dead here again. He is really getting to piss me off!
4 hours ago, vladisimo2 said:
Went with zverev to beat bublik (1,19)- I think these courts suit zverev better, and the only reason I didn't go with over 19,5 games is bublik's inconsistency.
Rublev to beat murray 2-0(1,42 I think)- I've watched andy lately , he seemed tired against haase and as long as rublev doesn't choke I can't see murray keeping up at this point with the onslaught from andrey.
What appealed to me most from your comment above was (1,42 I think) and (He seemed tired) which really does not sound like the Murray that I know. In fact Murray and Djokovic are two players that are experts at communicating reverse body languages in very strange ways. One minute they may look dead, and next minute they are in the 5th set waxing strong. Murray is also one of the craftiest players on court when it comes down to shot shot selection - against Rublev who up to this point in his career has been hindered by good court wisdom. The other player I must mention is Auger Aliassime, who has hitherto been held back by court craft deficiency. They both lead the brainless ball-bashing department. (sorry).
Do notget me wrong here, Rublev might end up beating Murray 2-0 as you say, but this certainly is the type of match that every punter should want to get on from the multifarious money making angles available. This really in my opinion is similar to the Gerasimov/Tsitsipas match yesterday. Gerasimov was originally priced from suspected tiredness and had ended up negating his price by recovering quickly in the 2 days prior. Murray will remember their only head to head in 2017 and know that he can still beat this guy. I will go the safe route and take Murray @ +5.5 games handicap 1/2. That really seems mouth-watering enough for me. Good luck.
Koepfer vs Tirante
I do not think the rankings of both players is of any importance in this match up as there are a lot of other angles that we can view this from. First koepfer can be very dangerous on clay as can be seen from his record towards the end of 2020. he has only played one match on clay this year and I believe he can be taken on partially or perhaps fully. Tirante is the young home prospect who mainly plies his trade on clay although it has to be said that he is also a very good hard court player, winning over 80% of his matches last year. He is still only 19 in the developmental stage of his career and I really think he is on the right path. He has already played six matches this year with a 3/3 record. However I think his recent loss to Facundo Bagnis can be used as a yardstick to measure what can be expected from him today. Also I feel as a youngster in the same age bracket, he would have noted what Cerundolo did yesterday and aim to draw inspiration from it. While i very much believe that he is a good bet to win the match, I will opt for Tirante to win a set at 4/9 since the object of this exercise is to ensure that your capital stays in tact. Good luck!!!
Cerundolo Vs Ramos
This is a very interesting that I felt I must quickly talk about. I will not waste words here but rather quickly jump to my key points. Cerundolo really looks to be good pedigree on clay. I watched hia match yesterday with Coria and liked what i saw. Ramos gritty and always dogged will be expected to put up a fight. Ramos has now play 3 sets each in his last 4 matches. Cerundolo has played 3 sets in his last three matches. I am going to consider home advantage here especially considering how the south American players always do consistently well at home. I am also going to deduct energy taxes and side with the home player. Finally I will take the 13year age gap into consideration and still favor the home player. It will be hard for Ramos find any consistency especially after that epic of yesterday. I also feel because he is playing a new young player and a lefty like him for that matter, he just might lose very easily. Cerundolo for the win here.
Burel Clara vs Alize Cornet
Burel has won 4 of her last 5 matches compared to Cornet who has lost 3 of her last 5 matches. I can make a case against the quality of players that Burel has beaten so far, but considering that a win is a win and she is a (2001) breed, I feel her form is authentic enough and worthy of notice. On the other side of the net will be Cornet whose form is really bad losing last time out to Birrel easily. Because this will be a local derby I will hate to throw caution to the wind and just declare Burel the winner because I expect Cornet to fight hard at some point. I have always known her to be the sort of dog that you can never take a bone from and get away free. I am believing that bone-chase should take this game over 21.5 total games well into street-fight territory. Burel might just fall over the winning line in the end hopefully. Verdict over 21.5 games
2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Yeah, plenty of strange things going on this week. You can perhaps explain them by some players saving themselves, but at this stage of the event it makes little sense honestly. Cilic not winning today wasn't too surprising, though. I was surprised to see him almost evens against Kwon, but his performances are still too shabby. Don't think he'll rise again either.
And the bookies have also moved strongly to fade Gerasimov which I find very interesting. This looks like sharp money on Goffin from the odds movement unless Gerasimov is injured or something. Experience from situations like these will normally lead to a Gerasimov win or withdrawal. I left it alone because the opening odds were not right. Good luck anyways.
Gauff vs Bencic
I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10
2 hours ago, Torque said:
I like two today in Adelaide. Martic is too big against Gauff, bearing in mind that the American has had two tough three-set wins in a row and also hasn't had much consistency in recent times. I'm also taking a punt on Inglis to beat Swiatek, as I've liked how she's played in the last few weeks and she's had some decent results. I always like to look at fading the top players in the weeks after a Slam, as I always think motivation levels suffer. Swiatek should win, and she should win comfortably, but if she's not entirely focussed then the home player might spring a surprise.
20pts Martic to beat Gauff @ 2.50 Bet365
10pts Inglis to beat Swiatek @ 10.50 Betfair Exchange
Nothing wrong with your thinking. It is the right way to go - fading top seeds just after a slam. It may not always work, but the thinking is right. You do not back players because you know that they are better. You back them because you think that they have the better chance of winning based on the situation and circumstance. Well......unless the player is named Djokovic who can switch to any one of his 9 lives.
Medvedev For The Title
It will be fair to say that as it stands only two men look capable of lifting that trophy come the final. Djokovic or Medvedev - and to be fair it is looking more like Medvedev. Here is my calculation: Medvedev has managed his energy levels well up to this point, winning all his matches in straight sets except the one with Krajinovic where he went to 5. Djokovic conversely has played one 3 setter, 3 four setters and one five setter plus injury worries. Medvedev has won 3 of his last 4 meetings with Tsitsipas and considering Tsitsipas's last 5 setter with Nadal, one can easily see that his chances of beating a seemingly fresh Medvedev hangs between slim and none. Even if by some working of the god's Tsitsipas manages to beat Medvedev, it will certainly require a 4 or 5 setter to accomplish before even thinking of beating Djokovic in the final judging from what could be left from the residue of the Nadal match. Based on that, I do not expect him to beat Djokovic with or without the injury.
Medvedev has also beaten Djokovic three out of the last 4 times that they have played and there is no reason why he should not beat this downgraded version of Djokovic if they ever play. The bookies cut Djokovic from evens to 4/6 as a result of Nadal's exit. I thought that was really an inconsequential move as it did not have any effect on what was left of the draw. I also think that Karatsev may not be disarmed easily causing Djokovic to expend more energy. We have all praised the joker admirably for playing bravely through his injury even to the extent of fooling the bookies. I dare him to repeat the dose this time hoping that he will meet the wonder kid Medvedev who one commentator described yesterday as playing with the accuracy of a video game. I really think Medvedev from here at 11/5 is a huge gift. Come the final he really cannot be more than evens or 5/6 either way with Djokovic. Get on board now before the next men's match takes off. There could never be a better timing.
Ashley Barty Vs Karolina Muchova
As the tournament enters the business end, the matches have suddenly become so close to call hence most tipsters have stayed away. This response is replicated across all the major tennis tipping forums online. I particularly like this match up for what it promises to deliver - exciting and captivating tennis. I feel like Barty and Muchova have similar games especially when it comes to deploying that backhand slice for action.Comparing the two players, I really like the Muchova game more. She is definitely more aggressive and has the better shot selections overall. I expect both to play well behind their first serves to take this total past 19.5 games. The advice is to play on bet365 that has the total at 19.5. Paddy Power always gives you the option of alternative total and handicaps which can give you the opportunity to adjust your totals in case of bigger stakes. One major reason why I have stopped playing on Paddypower is because of their continued involvement in fiddling prices and disrupting the results of market influence, a practice that is truly deceptive and criminal by implementation. I sometimes wonder why there can not be a monitoring body to curtail issues like these. Absolutely disgusting the more I think of it. Away from the momentary deviation, I really feel good about Muchova to the point where I really believe that she could win. A real gutsy player with durable balls. Verdict: over 19.5 games easily
7 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
There’s no need to be disrespectful.
Also, I have access to Eurosport. I hope you aren’t encouraging any illegal ways to view the match! Please don’t do that.
Again, you’re painting a narrative of that match which isn’t what actually happened. Williams took the lead, and the match, with a break of serve in the 28th game. The match was evenly-poised after 26 games.
Sabalenka had 11 break points to Serena’s 9. You could argue that Serena deserved the win, but either way, it was a really close match, by any measure. To say Sabalenka was ‘well-beaten’ is ridiculous. There aren’t many scenarios where someone is well-beaten, with a break of serve, for 4-6 in the deciding set. This wasn’t one of them.
I guess there are many ways to interpret types of defeat. You are quite free within your rights to lean unto your own understanding of what happened in that match. All I know is that within the context of the street fight that it was, Sabalenka was soundly beaten by the older woman. And breakpoints were not my yardstick for calculation. I do not think there was anything disrespectful in what I said to you on the assumption that I was not having a conversation with a boy. I am not aware of what constitutes an illegal way of watching. Again you are free to define that within the confines of your bubble.
3 hours ago, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
I feel like we were both watching a different Sabalenka and Williams match?!
(I didn’t see Serena’s first three matches, as I don’t like to see her win, so I only watch matches where I think there is a reasonable chance of her losing.)
I thought that Sabalenka deserved to win the match. Even if I’ve got that wrong, Serena won the final two games of the match, to make it 14 games each, overall. That is not the result you get when one prayer ‘comprehensively outplays’ the other ‘in every department.’ Maybe you think Serena shaded it, but what you have written about how much better she was is a big exaggeration.
Also, to say that Serena displayed the ‘best retrieving skills’ of her whole career in that match is ludicrous as well, and clearly shows a great deal of recency bias. Serena has won 23 Grand Slams. Her career is therefore full of great performances. Winning in 3 sets, with a break in the 28th game of the match, does not indicate the level of amazing performance that you are suggesting.
She has blown many great players off the court in her career, so I’m not sure why you think that 6-4 2-6 6-4 performance the other night, which nudged her over the line ahead of her opponent, was so special?
Which is why I specifically asked whether you watched the match. I do not think you did or was either falling asleep in-between. Serena won the match and rightly. Sometimes scorelines do not rightly depict what happened in a match. A person can lose a very closely fought match with a scoreline of 6-1 6-2 where almost every game had gone to deuce amidst numerous pendulum swings. I did a write up before the Serena/Sabalenka match on what to expect during the match and all the points made were spot on. The match as expected was billed as a heavy weight clash where we all expected both to come to the court with similar strategies.- to continue to hit the ball harder in the hope that they could beat their opponents into submission. At the end of the second set Serena was on the ropes seemingly hanging on for dear life, in actual fact she was taking a breather waiting for Sabalenka to come on to her. She certainly came off the ropes to beat Sabalenka well in that match. I remember Sabalenka looking frustrated and spent as she played the match-point shot right into the middle of the net. Even as they toughed rackets at the end, you could see from Sabalenka's body language that she acknowledged that she was well beaten. I am surprised that you actually watched that match without taking note of Serena's physical shape. Just in case you do not have sky or IPTV at home, I have several online links where you can watch the match later on. Please open your eyes this time. lol!!
On 2/14/2021 at 4:09 PM, SteffiSteffiGraf said:
I would think that most of them, if not all of them, were long enough ago to be rather irrelevant.
In terms of 2021 Halep and 2021 Serena Williams, Williams doesn’t have anywhere near the movement or all-round game to go toe-to-toe with Halep. I’m happy to lump on Halep and if need be, and it goes wrong, lump on even bigger on Osaka to beat Williams in the next round.
I think we’re in a nice little sweet spot for betting, when the Federer/S. Williams/Nadal/Djokovic eras are starting to wind down, but the bookies still insist on pricing them up based on their previous glories. There’s decent money to be made in opposing these players, when the time is right. I could have gone in on Sabalenka to beat Williams, but I decided to hold off, as I thought that Sabalenka’s game might suit Serena a bit more than Halep’s. I think Sabalenka probably deserved to win the match just about.
I trust Halep - and Osaka - hugely though, the best two players in the world by a bit of a margin, so I’m happy to lump on them both to beat Serena, if they both end up playing her.
I don’t think it will get that far though, as Halep is the one player that I’d back to demolish Serena. I can’t believe that I’m getting 13/10 on that, because I would happily take a far shorter price, and still think it was a gift! I was expecting somewhere around 1/2 or 4/9.
I am sick and tired of hearing references to Serena's age and lack of movement as if the Serena that I have been watching during this tournament is different from the one that is being talked about. Well......unless you have not yet watched Serena live this tournament . What does a regressing player look like? Like the player who comprehensively outplayed Sabalenka in every department including physicality and endurance? I would think not. In fact, it was quite surprising to see Serena do a Halep on Sabalenka, constantly chasing down and retrieving every ball always giving Sabalenka one more shot to deal with throughout the match. It was the best retrieving skills that Serena had displayed all through her career with her hunger and desire being overwhelmingly unmissable through every shot.
Serena really has to fancy herself from here onward taking confidence that she already beat Osaka just before this tournament. I am confident about her getting past Halep somehow especially considering the Head to Head. All this talk of 2021 Halep vs 2021 Serena is all speculative and empty and can only serve the cosmetic purpose of spicing up conversations. Nothing in terms of competitive tennis has really happened since 2019 and I think Serena has managed her energy levels quite well focusing mainly on the Grand Slams. Kimiko Date at 50 was still flogging young and upcoming players how much more Serena who comparably is a much better physical specimen.
Serena owns Halep and looks to be in much better form at this time. She must know deep down that she might never get a better shot at this record-breaking slam than now. I think her biggest problem will be Osaka who still has time to find form. Time will definitely tell.
Two games to talk about quickly before the off. Williams/Sabalenka and Aliassime/Karatsev. I would have had no problems with Sabalenka winning if the pricing did not look suspiciously wrong. Sabalenka has no reason to be favorite in this match up. That really constitures the first red flag of this match up. Secondly is Sabalenka, Ms Inconsistent really going to blow Serena off the court with her power? I think the match up in strength will favor Serena. She she be able to hit flat back at Sabalenka and return with interest. I am leaning towards Serena strongly.
In the second match very really do you see a consistent price drop as that of karatsev turning out successful. Karatsev's chances now look to be over-influenced by the public factor and the injection of sharp money. Head to head stands at 1-1 with Karatsev winning the most recent 2-0 in a challenger a few years ago. Forget all the hype, I think I know my markets well enough to decline the bate here. Way to obvious. I do not know how or where Alissiame will find the bottle to win this. I just know the stakes are too high to count him out here. Aliassime win.
22 minutes ago, darko08 said:
In my humble opinion backing Ferro against Swiatek is a dumb move. Swiatek has proved that her game is made for clay and hard courts. When she was 17/18 years old she was already beating on this surface some of the best players of the circuit, as Jabeur, Vekic, Rogers, Wozniacki, Caroline García,... Ferro is a clay court player and she barely has a positive record on this surface, built in part from ITF matches. I only have watched the highlights from her match against Rybakina but when I saw her losing against Krejcikova I knew something was happening there. It will shock me a lot if Swiatek is not in the next round, especially after watching how she has won against Rus and Giorgi. IMO there better underdogs out there than Ferro.
You may be right in your assertion. However we know in this game that the best player does not always win. Sometimes it might just require a dumb move to acquire success. I think Ferro is a valid dumb move here!
Tennis Tips - April 12 - April 18
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
These are typical no bets for anyone. You find that you will always end up picking the wrong one 90% of the time. That is just the way this game is especially if the pick is for betting purposes. Regardless of the h2h score at 4-0 Rublev. Ruud is the play here or no bet. I would not suggest win, I think the route should be alternative handicaps. I will go Ruud @+4.5 4/7. Boy tennis is such an organized mess these days. Nothing is easy with the bookies constantly in vulturic mode.