Posts posted by liquidglass
2 hours ago, WinningTipster said:
2 picks for the Wimbledon qualification matches today:
EBDEN-BAEZ 2:0 sets @ 1.8 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies
COPIL-KUZMANOV 2:0 sets @ 1.5 at betfair sportsbook and other bookies
Both Ebden and Copil are excellent grass court players with good serve, many good wins on grass and few good matches this year already. Baez and Kuzmanov prefer clay, and slow surfaces in general.
I would have preferred the win in both cases regardless of odds. Yes both are very good grass-courters who are by no means untouchables. Ebden normally relies on his very powerful serve and I do not think that the serve is really in top working order at this moment, plus he withdrew recently while losing at Nottingham. His price has been fluctuating between 1/5 -2/9 in the last 24hours. Worrying. I think he could drop a set to Baez who is one talent that might just be able to adapt to grass. Some of these clay-courters really do these days as things have really changed a bit with how players respond to surfaces.
6 hours ago, Torque said:
Should be a good watch. Norrie never convinces me, despite his strong season so far and it wouldn't surprise me if Draper beats him. Having said that, it'll be much more difficult to beat Norrie than it was to beat Sinner and Bublik, which is another reminder to be wary of backing players on the basis of ranking and reputation.
You are absolutely right with all you have said. Out of interest I watched Draper/Boblik from beginning to end. I wanted to really see what kind of player that he was. I saw the way he completely pulverized Boblik once ball was in play. He has this very sweet timing on his shots that immediately puts him in charge after two plus hits.. Boblik was never ever able to find his balance to stay in the rallies and always had to revert to lobbing to recover his court positioning. I am not too sure how his game will work out against Norrie as they are both lefties. Norrie is clutch and has a fair amount of grit. Having said that and having considered their only match up in 2020 (7-6 7-6 Draper) it is draper that really looks the value by many miles in terms of the handicap and winning a set. Norrie has already had a superb season even by his own expectations. This Draper will seem another good British prospect in the making for certain. Remember how we suddenly woke up to Norrie after he beat Bautista on clay in a Davis cup tie? Enough said here.
Tsitsipas bewitched by his mental fragility again. To think he lost that 3rd set with Djokovic just managing to throw in 2nd serves is abominable. I am truly thrilled.
For all that tomorrow”s final is worth, only one question really matters here. The question is can Tsitsipas win a set? I am thinking yes especially after Djokovic went to 5 sets with Nadal in that nerve racking pulsating final. I feel Tsitsipas should be fresh enough to secure a set from the first 2 sets that will be played. For him everything has gone magically to plan. Djokovic is the man that he would have wanted in the final. At least it will ensure that his backhand is not put under constant pressure as it would have been under the nadal assault.. Whilst it is obvious that Tsitsipas has improved in leaps and bounds this year, one cannot help admitting that he is still mentally fragile when it comes to digging deep especially against a man like the joker who a few will still fancy to win 3-0.. I strongly believe that both can win a set but I have to be cautious against the popularity of that bet knowing that the bookies never pay everybody. Lol! My suggestion will beTsitsipas to win a set @1/2. Best way to go if you are a heavy investor like me. The very best of luck to you all.
5 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Yeah. And this is the only outcome that could have given Tsitsipas a chance.
12 hours ago, four-leaf said:
Alexander Zverev to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 3.05 with Unibet
I'm not stupid and this is what I will do. I'm gonna place a massive stake on Sascha today 400% larger than the huge stake I've already placed on the treble ending with Stefanos -1.5 sets. If this match goes to 5 sets Stefanos is there for the taking so if Stefanos wants to win he better do it in 3 or 4 otherwise Zverev takes advantage and wins in 4 or 5. I only recommend betting like this if you are guaranteed profit like I am with two of three correct bets on my treble so no matter how the match goes you win big unless Tsitsipas wins in 5 which is the only scenario which would make me a big loser.
Hard luck mate! It never ceases to amaze me how the bookies always constantly pull through even when they have a one in ten chance. I will be shocked if you covered Tsitsipas in 5 ab I know you will never have had the stomach to do it. Crazy game bro!
On 6/10/2021 at 1:30 AM, four-leaf said:
oh no, chances are slim that Zverev cleans up his second serve issues and that will cost him when Tsitsi goes for the shots. The fresher one doesn't always win as you might have learned by now. Sascha has treated his problem with second serve but not cured it.
Unless you are so certain that Djokovic will beat Nadal. It is that simple. What i feel pretty certain about is that Tsitsipas and Nadal cannot both win today. It is not happening. And I have not quickly forgotten that Tsitsipas is the most burnt out player of the four. It is so very very rear for a player to have played as much tennis as Tsitsipas and still be in at the business end of a slam. That fatigue has the potential to be collecting toll today. Zverev to me is looking more like the champion this year. The new twist of aggression to his game will be key here.
12 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
My treble for the future based on everything written above: Krejcikova to beat Sakkari at 2.40, Stricker to beat Hurkacz at 2.55, Tsitsi to beat (-1.5 sets) Zverev at 1.80 with Unibet
Total odds: 11.02
Hmmm! Funny enough these are the same three matches that I am seriously drawn to playing at heavy stakes. Past experience has told me that when i see this happen, there is definitely a fly in the ointment 100%. If I had to pick the fly..........even though I do not know much about Hurkacz plans for grass, I will pick Zverev to beat Tsitsipas. He is the fresher one and could really prosper with the new twist of aggression to his game. A real live dog that could bring all the money home to the bookmakers.
4 hours ago, delfino said:
You will lose your money in style. I guess that you have never watched Sakaraki in the tournament. Sakkaraki is is like a female lion, super powerful tennis, she will destroy the innocent barbora more easy than she destroyed Iga today. Where was Iga today? Did anyone see her? Because i haven't seen her sat all.
I am even more tempted to go with Krejikova after reading a comment like this. Losing money in style is the natural default state of a gambler so one will not be doing anything really different going with a favorite like Sakkaraki as you have preferred to call her. Sakkari has always looked like this female Lion that you have described. It certainly did not come into view after her victory over Iga. And by the way Iga had been long overdue for a heavy defeat as players were now beginning to catch up with her game. This is something that every player has to go through till they rediscover themselves a second time, We saw that with players with Muguruza, and recently with Kenin, Vekic, Kerber . Some players never quite make it back like Bouchard. In what has certainly been a very erratic and strange tournament I almost feel the best way forward is to only play with what you can afford to lose then aim to lose it in style to have a chance of winning. I strongly feel that Krejikova is the best on the field left especially with her very convincing 2-0 h2h over Sakkari. the set score in both cases will clearly suggest that Krej is master. Nothing would have changed much. I feel the bookies much have had some balls to make Sakkari favorite. Anyone who beats the tournament favorite should be favorite in their opinion. After all What do they care if such thinking has the potential to drown a few unsuspecting punters.
Top spotlight players for today: Linette and Basilashvili.
3 minutes ago, AgaRadwanska said:
What do we think of Cillic's chances against Federer? 3.40 on most sites. 1.44 to win a set.
This is only Roger's 3rd match on clay this year.
The markets seem to be suddenly taking a u-turn against Cilic now going from 2/1 to 12/5 the win. This is mostly the result of sharp money coming on Federer for some reason. I am strongly believing that if Cilic is going to lose then it will be by a collapse of 0-3. I will be siding with the fed here from all the new pointers.
Tsitsipas vs Paul
I am applying the same theory here backed by the a close scrutiny of the odds movement. I think Tsitsipas should have bagged just enough match practice for Roland Garros and after the major disappointment last week in losing to Djokovic, I see Paul with some kind of realistic chance. Verdict: Paul to win with +5.5 @ 4/6 is real value to me. Good luck all!
3 hours ago, darko08 said:
Norrie to beat Thiem at 3.94 with Pinnacle
Norrie (+1.5 Sets) to beat Thiem at 2.00 with Pinnacle
Norrie never did well on clay but this year his results on this surface has been impressive (11-3). In Barcelona he reached the QFs after beating Caruso, Khachanov and Goffin. In Estoril he reached the Final after beating J.Sousa, Pedro Martinez, Garin and Cilic. In Rome he beat Cuevas, Cecchinato and Carballes. In his first match here he has beat Moutet in straight sets. Norrie has lost against Nadal, Ramos (in a 3 set match decided by a TB) and Fokina. Thiem has not convinced me at all. In Madrid he lost in straight sets against Zverev after beating De Minaur and Isner in 2 tough matches. Then, he lost in his second match in Rome against Sonego in a 3 set match after beating Fucsovics in another 3 set match. I saw the whole match and Fucsovics could have won that match in 2 sets. If he's playing here is cause he knows he's not ready for the FO so I expect Norrie to have some options here.
To put it bluntly, I really believe that your first option Norrie to beat Thiem is kind of very long shottish and unlikely to happen. The second one is probable depending on Thiem's mood. This really seems a tale of two players obviously heading in different directions at the crucial point of the season. Norrie has been in superb form over the last few weeks and I will be expecting him to go off the boil here largely. Thiem definitely will be looking to raise his form and will certainly be needing this tournament as a warm up. It is going to be difficult to see him lose in the early rounds especially after the free gift he gave Sonego last week. Verdict: Thiem to Cruise into next round confidently!
58 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
Somewhere around the corner Pablo is gonna start turning his fortunes around and he usually does that in smaller tournaments like this one. I'm not convinced Cazaux has what it takes to consistently outrally the former top 30 veteran claygrinder who thrives on the red stuff. The youngsters results before Madrid doesn't really impress either. Like losing the final in a clayfutures tourney to 23 year old german Erler. But still it's about time this veteran starts dropping in the ranks and for Cazaux I can understand his loss to Erler who isn't a bad player anyway and the final was played in Germany in April.
I'm feeling Cazaux might have the edge after all. The loss in the final in April is a long time ago for an 18 year old talent progressing forward rapidly so he probably has improved since then.
After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value
Cilic Vs Stricker
Cilic is not in any kind of real form but classwise should be able to beat Stricker easily which really should be the default reasoning here - that is if you are too blind to notice the other hidden factors.. Cilic 4/3 on clay this year and Stricker 0/1. The question is who is this Stricker? Do not expect me to have an answer for you as I have only seen as much as you have probably seen about him. However there are some very import things that stand out about this match that I just cannot overlook. Stricker is only 18 and has a very impressive hard court record under him. He has only played the one match on clay yet the tournament organizers have deemed it fit to slot this match into the prime time slot. Most times they do this for reason. (Saving the best for last)This boy must have some real potential especially with the way the odds have moved in the last 2 days. Verdict: Stricker to win a set @ evens . Sprinkling a few euros on Stricker to win 3/1 is also strongly advised. Good luck!!!
Alexandrova vs Pegula
Pegula really looks the top breed here especially with regards to current form. I think she will take some stopping after the Osaka spanking. The odds speak well . Banker material. Good luck!
4 hours ago, Stanimal said:
So your bet is Fokina?
The answer to your question was very clear in the wording of my post that the pick was clearly Fokina.
C. Norrie vs D. Fokina
Cameron Norrie has really been in good form and earns my respect. However with the stakes going much higher in the person of Fokina, I will have to overlook him here confidently. The odds have been screaming Davidoch Fokina all night and I have no reason to think otherwise. Good luck all.
38 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:
Marton Fucsovics (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.09 with Pinnacle
As much as I like Thiem, I have to oppose him here in some capacity. Something looked wrong with him in his match against Zverev, not sure if it was physical or mental, but he didn't look good out there. Fucsovics has been on a rise lately and has an easy match under his belt here already, so he should have the initiative going into this one. He also has a lot of belief after some big wins in 2021. At odds against, I have to pick him to take a set.
I did not think that there was anything wrong with Thiem as you have pointed out. He just was not motivated enough and may have just used that as entry level practice. On the other hand Zverev seemed to have bought a new bottle of mustard for his game. The new level of aggression was well welcomed with the groans of defiance at times. I noticed that he was almost breaking down at one point with the Berretini constant pressure. I feel Berretini lost the game from not holding on one or two games further. I still believe with a bit of mental tenacity, Zverev takes the French open as well!. Thiem still has time to rise to the challenge ahead.
6 hours ago, darko08 said:
Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.
I just think this tournament will kickstart a different part of the tennis calendar that will bring a few more new players into focus in line with their overall expectations . I do not care whether hard court or clay, I should be expecting more out of FAA at this time of the year looking ahead to a grand slam. He has played Schwartzman once in 2020 cologne indoors where Schwartzman won 6/4 5/7 6/4. He will know the Schwartzman game enough to move in for a surprise arrest. I think considering Schwartzman's current form FAA at 6/4 is a must play. I expect him to be clutch here and overpower Schwartzman in a straight exchange of firepower. Good luck
Should Ramos not be slapping up Rublev in Barcelona? +5.5 Ramos and the win @ 7/2 look good.. Ramos should be tired as well. But.........I think he has the better presence of mind. Barcelona and first meeting on clay strong factors.
17 minutes ago, darko08 said:
Barthel to beat Siegemund at 2.62 with bet365
Last one for tomorrow. I have been thinking a lot about this one and finally I have decided to take it cause the odds have raised. First of all, I have to say that Siegemund has reached the Final here 2 times (2016 and 2017). Despite that, there are some reasons that make me think she can lost tomorrow. She will play her first match on clay this year. Her last match played was 1 month ago against McHale in Miami, where she had to withdraw due to a knee injury. Barthel has already played 5 matches on clay this month. She has played the qualification in which she has won against Gracheva as the underdog (2.30). They played only once before. It was in 2011 in RG and Barthel won in straight sets. Siegemund is better player but considering that she has not played in the last month due to a knee injury I think the value is on Barthel, who has already played 5 matches on clay in April and she has beat Gracheva on her last match here.
You took a real easy one there. gl!!!
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