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Serie A : Genoa vs Sampdoria

Big derby game, neither comes into this match in great shape with just three wins between them in their last 20 (ten each) starts. The Christmas break was probably a god send for Genoa who had lost four league games in a row in build up, failed to score in the last three and had a home cup defeat to a third tier team sandwiched inbetween. The Coppa Italia is treated seriously and the win for Alessandria, was the first time that a Serie C (Lega Pro) team had reached the last eight of the competition in more than 30 years, which highlights the magnitude of the defeat and how poorly Genoa are playing. That loss was an huge embarassment and one not eased by a follow up loss at Roma where the hosts finished with ten men and the 2-0 defeat still flattered Genoa, who sit just two points above the drop zone.

Sampdoria are four points better off and went into the break in far better spirits, comforted by a 2-0 win over Palermo, they had suffered three home defeats in a row (league and cup) before that, which was a real dip after going unbeaten through their first seven starts (five wins) this season at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. The two clubs share the stadium, so whilst this is technically a home game for Genoa and they will have the advantage of support and the home dressing room, the surroundings and build up are certainly not as unfamiliar for Samp as they would be for a normal away fixture.

The "hosts" get a boost today with the return of Goran Pandev and addition of new signings Suso and Luca Rigoni, but the veteran forward has only played some 631 minutes (90 mins only 4 times) in the last two seasons and has not scored  a goal in 20 months, the newbies might need time to make an impact and Suso, who is on loan from Milan, has had even less football than Pandev and is taking a long time to fulfill his early promise. I am not sure that these two are the immediate answers to a squad that did not score a league goal in December and now that Sampdoria have claimed that first win for coach Vincenzo Montella, they look the value today to continue their good derby record in recent seasons, losing just one of the last six meetings and seeking a third straight "away" win today. They are helped considerably by the suspension to Diego Perotti, Genoa have lost 9 of 10 starts when the fiesty wide man plays an hour or less, when he plays 60 mins plus they have lost just one in eight this season and that was away to league leaders Inter

Sampdoria +0.25 ball 2.00 asian line/Sportmarket

 

England Championship: Reading vs Blackburn Rovers

Reading have lost their way and have only beaten basement club Bolton in their last ten starts and have really struggled to hold onto leads in that sequence. Rovers are on an unbetaen run of eight and have only conceded once in four away starts and not at all in closing in on 300 minutes and not lost to the Royals in 11 league meetings. The visitors are suddenly very well organised under Paul Lambert  and could move to within three points of the playoffs with the win this afternoon. Hosts have a new manager to impress in Brian McDermott, but he has only had a couple of days with the squad and he has some big defensive issues with Andrew Taylor , Anton Ferdinand and Chris Gunter major doubts, Gunter is the only recognised right back and a midfielder will probably drop back if he misses out, his eye injury was bad and required a lot of stitches. Seems sure that the Royals will have players out of position, or a very young backline against a well organised team in good form, with a potent Championship striker in Jordan Rhodes. McDermott will also probably not be able to play his preferred formation either and I think he is going to need time to turn this group around.

Blackburn Rovers level ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Champions League Gent - Zenit St Petersburg

Zenit have finally fulfilled their potential in the Champions League and have already secured first place in the group, it has come at a cost domestically and it is no coincidence that the Premier Liga form of both Zenit and CSKA, the two CL teams, has nosedived in recent weeks, anyway, that can wait for another day. Their domestic campaign doesn't restart until March and they need to rest now and come back early to try and get into some sort of match shape for the first round of knockout games in mid February, that process has already started and several players including Hulk (who has already been allowed to return to Brazil) have not made the trip. Head coach Andre Villas-Boas has been open about his thinking and said on the club website earlier this week " In this situation, we have to decide what is more important , this match or the last 16, we should not forget about the dream of the quarter-finals, so we need to be a little more pragmatic." He then went on to give us the all too familiar football talk about "doing our best in every game and loooking for the win", but I think the first comments were the most telling and pertinent.

Gent have already taken four points from home games with Valencia and Lyon and took Zenit closer in St Petersburg than those two and would secure progression today with three points, or if Valencia failed to beat Lyon, but the Spanish club have a new coach to impress and I expect them to win on his official home debut and I am close to certain that Gent will need a maximum return here to progress. Hulk has contributed (goals/assists) to 7 of Zenit's 12 goals in the competition and they obviously lose a lot of offensive threat in his absence, centre back Nicolas Lombaerts started his professional career at Gent and went to University in the city and has spoken about returning to play for the club one day and conspiracy theorists could have a field day if he scores an own goal or makes a couple of errors !

Gent -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

 

Champions League Gent - Zenit St Petersburg

Zenit have finally fulfilled their potential in the Champions League and have already secured first place in the group, it has come at a cost domestically and it is no coincidence that the Premier Liga form of both Zenit and CSKA, the two CL teams, has nosedived in recent weeks, anyway, that can wait for another day. Their domestic campaign doesn't restart until March and they need to rest now and come back early to try and get into some sort of match shape for the first round of knockout games in mid February, that process has already started and several players including Hulk (who has already been allowed to return to Brazil) have not made the trip. Head coach Andre Villas-Boas has been open about his thinking and said on the club website earlier this week " In this situation, we have to decide what is more important , this match or the last 16, we should not forget about the dream of the quarter-finals, so we need to be a little more pragmatic." He then went on to give us the all too familiar football talk about "doing our best in every game and loooking for the win", but I think the first comments were the most telling and pertinent.

Gent have already taken four points from home games with Valencia and Lyon and took Zenit closer in St Petersburg than those two and would secure progression today with three points, or if Valencia failed to beat Lyon, but the Spanish club have a new coach to impress and I expect them to win on his official home debut and I am close to certain that Gent will need a maximum return here to progress. Hulk has contributed (goals/assists) to 7 of Zenit's 12 goals in the competition and they obviously lose a lot of offensive threat in his absence, centre back Nicolas Lombaerts started his professional career at Gent and went to University in the city and has spoken about returning to play for the club one day and conspiracy theorists could have a field day if he scores an own goal or makes a couple of errors !

Gent -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket

 

World Cup Qualifiers Ecuador- Uruguay

I doubt many would have thought these two would come into this game with six points each on board. Ecuador have posted back to back 2-0 wins over Argentina and Bolivia with all four goals coming after the 82nd minute and given that and the fact that a draw would not be a terrible result for them, plus second top scorer Enner Valencia is missing, they might be content to play a cagey game through the opening period. Uruguay have posted wins over Bolivia in the high altitude of La Paz, which at 3,640 m above sea level makes tonight's game in Quito ( 2,850m) nothing to fear and then a demolition of Columbia, by a combined 5-0.

In addition to their striker, Ecuador will be without his namesake, Antonio Valencia tonight, he was the star man in both opening wins , he played with huge confidence in Buenos Aires and will be sorely missed tonight. The host have a win-able game in Venezuela in midweek and 4 points from these two would be fantastic and two not a disaster, I feel they will be very cautious early and that should allow Uruguay to get a toehold in the game, the visitors would love a point as it would take all the pressure off them ahead of the visit from Chile on Tuesday and I think that Uruguay and the handicap start is the way to go.The fact that they beat Columbia 3-0 without not just Luiz Suarez , but also Edinson Cavani (who returns tonight) is terrific for the future of Uruguayan football and this tiny nation looks to have another fine crop of players coming through with 9-10 youngsters (sub 23 yo ) named in the last two squads, most of whom are already with "big" clubs and they look a potential fast improver .

Uruguay +0.25 ball 2.29 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Champions League Olympiakos - Dinamo Zagreb


Olympiakos have put themselves in a strong position to qualify behind Bayern Munich in this group and if they win tonight, might even be able to do so with a narrow loss a home to Arsenal on Matchday 6. They won on the road against the Gunners and in Zagreb two weeks ago in a hard fought 1-0 win, that has put Dinamo under pressure and they will have to look for the win this evening . I spoke ahead of their maych with Arsenal about how the lack of domestic competition worked against Dinamo in the CL and whilst they won that game, they rode their luck at times and have failed to score, conceding six in two CL starts since. Infact, this is a club in "crisis" having just lost back to back league games, which has had the stats men searching through the record books to find out the last time that happened ! They were unbeaten last season and were 51-19-2 over the previous two years, until the first of those recent defeats . They have a host of injuries to key players and have travelled with confidence at a very low ebb and if they fall behind tonight,  a collapse like we saw in Munich (four goals conceded in 15 minutes) is not out of question.

Olympiakos -1.5 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves – Portland Trailblazers

Recommendation: OVER 203

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Rejuvenated Minny welcomes Portland in Traget Center tonight. I guess Wolves will get a close win and send their fans home happy with a stunning 3-0 start (well, they didn’t meet quite an opposition really). Anyway I much more like OVER here, it’s way ‘’surer’’ call in my humble opinion.

Minnesota showed decent game overall so far, bad opponents or not. They will hardly reach the play-offs of course, too weak defense, but at least offense is running and clicking under fresh Ricky Rubio distribution skills. Their Nr. 1 Draft pick, Karl-Anthony Towns, also showed a lot of promise with a fine display against Denver, shooting 11 from 19 for 28 points and adding 14 rebounds and 4 blocks to his tally!

Portland is a team in transition, I doubt anyone on the upper management levels or among the players believe they have what it takes to reach the play-offs this season, after dumping 4 starters from last year line-up. At least though Damian Lillard is the undisputed franchise player now and he seems delighted with his role on the rebuilding team. C.J. McCollum is a very nice compliment to Lillard in the backcourt too, this young fella definitely can score the ball and I envision bright future ahead of him too.

So what we have, 2 teams with clearly offensive mindsets (and personnel allowance) and total line of 203? Win or lose, I buy that, thank you very much, Vegas!

 

Brazil Serie A Corinthians - Goias

A win for Atletico Mineiro last night saw them close to within two points of Corinthians at the top of the table and the leaders will want to extend that back up to five by following suit this evening. The top two will have clear priorities ahead of their meeting in Belo Horizonte in 17 days time, AMG will be looking to reduce the deficit to three or less, Corinthians will want to make the trip with as big an advantage as possible, but definitely 4 points +, which would take the pressure off that potentially title deciding game.

The hosts have been very solid against bottom ten teams, posting a 7-0-0 record at home with a 16-1 goal difference, winning five by 2+ goals, on the road they are 5-3-0 versus the same teams and remember how difficult it is to win away in Brazil, that means that they have collected 2.6 pts per game when playing any bottom ten side and are keeping a clean sheet in 67% of those meetings. Gois are in trouble, two points from safety, they are not yet a lost cause, as the four teams directly above them are all within three points,  they are going to have to up their game , but I doubt it will be in fixtures like this, or Sunday's trip to Santos which will ultimately decide their fate, but how they fare against the other strugglers and in all home starts from now on in. Corinthians have scored five goals in two of the last three h2h meetings in SP and whilst that might not be possible this evening, I do expect another two goal win . Since early June when Corinthians hit their stride, they are 8-1-0 next time out when coming off a draw or defeat , they get a couple of defenders back tonight who were not available for the 2-2 draw at Ponte Preta last time out and it is difficult to see Goias stopping another bounce back performance. Also returning from international duty and named as starters are Gil and Renato Augusto, they should have been three up at PP before some very sloppy and un-Corinthians like defending let the home side take the lead and we can expect a far more professional and disciplined showing this evening and with so many more options, a comfortable win.

Corinthians -1.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

MLS: FC Dallas- Vancouver Whitecaps

These two met last week in Vancouver, the match was a bit of a bore and ended 0-0 with injury hit Whitecaps earning the point they needed to secure a post season spot and FCD happy to play along. That will not be the case today, the winner will go top of the Western Conference and that has huge, playoff implications. Actually, a point would be enough for Dallas, but they really want that #1 ranking and any advantage they can get over Galaxy, who have beaten them in five straight meetings in LA.Therefore, we can expect them to push for the win and they are a perfect 6-0-0 at home to Whitecaps.

The visitors arrive very short handed, missing attacking midfielders Pedro Morales and Nicolas Mezquida who are both injured, fellow offensive players Mauro Rosales and Cristian Techera and centre back Pa-Modou Kah picked up knocks in the last game and are listed as doubts, with Vancouver having one eye on the playoffs, in addition, Kendall Waston is away with Costa Rica, Darren Mattocks with Jamaica, Marco Bustos, Kianz Froese, and Sam Adekugbe with Canada and Caleb Clarke (Canada U-23 national team) and all six saw game time yesterday. Head coach Carl Robinson talking about who saw available said that "if they could walk, they were on the plane" and this is going to be a very tall order for them.  Seven of the players named above would be termed regulars and have contributed 48% of all goals scored this season, one or two might make it, but they are definitely without much of their creative spark.

FC Dallas -0.75 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

Football League Trophy Crawley Town - Southend United

If United are committed to this tie, they should win and quite possibly with a degree of comfort. Town are struggling after relegation last seaon are yet to win at home and sit in 21st place in League 2, just three points off the bottom of the entire Football League, they have scored just 10 home goals (16 starts) in 2015 and are considered a bit of a soft touch at the Broadfield Stadium currently. They are coming off very lengthy trips to Newport and Plymouth last week and boss Mark Yates admitted that the league is their only priority. The club are now on limited resources, after being big spenders in recent years and it is always an issue when the money finally runs out, they were forced to try and bring in some bargain basement signings in the summer and they were trialling lots of players right through pre season.

Tonight they have Lanre Oyebanjo and Jon Ashton sidelined with injuries, Freddie Woodman (ever present goalkeeper) and Josh Yerworth are on international duty and Rhys Murphy is cup tied . That will mean a backline with probably an average age of 20 yo, with 19 yo goalkeeper Callum Preston making his debut behind them !

Southend are doing well in their first season back in League 1 and sit just two points off the playoff spots, they are coming off a 1-0 defeat at leaders Burton Albion at the weekend where they felt they were the better team and deserving of at least a point, infact, they were very angry that they lost. These are two teams very much heading in opposite directions and as I said at the start of these notes, the visitors should be able to ease home here if they are motivated and the loss at Burton should ensure they are and I simply cannot see Town being strong enough at the back to put up too much resistance.


Southend United -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Ligue 2 Nancy - Ajaccio

Breakthrough win for Ajaccio last round (1-0 vs Auxerre) and it surely provided a massive confidence boost and we get a big price on them to follow up this evening. Nancy are expected to be a big player at this level , but they have not won in four and have dropped points at home to Niort (similar level to Ajaccio) and Auxerre (defeat) in that sequence and goals are proving hard to come by for the home side. They are also without suspended defensive midfielder Diallo Guidileye and with Coulibaly and Aït Bennasser also sidelined, that leaves them weakened across the middle and especially short of options in the holding role. This is my potential upset of the day and I will probably try and take a little on the visitors to win at circa 7.0-7.5 which seems too big , but for my "official bet............... Ajaccio +0.75 at 2.17 at Sportmarket

 

League 1 : Colchester United- Bradford City

Colchester were largely outplayed last round, but won 2-1 with the Gills missing a penalty and a whole host of late chances, defensively the U's have been underfperforming, but they certainly have goals in them , they are battling hard and must be confident after that series of results and they followed up with another three points at Swindon Town with a 2-1 win on Saturday. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a lot went their way in that game with Town suffering a series of injuries both immediately before and early during the match .

Today they hosts Bradford City who were amongst the pre season promotion favourites, but who find themselves nearer the drop zone than playoffs , although a couple of wins will soon address that, they looked to be running into some form before they stalled with a 2-0 home defeat to a surging Peterborough United at the weekend in front of an almost 18,000 crowd ( City are a massive club at this level) and will want to immediately bounce back this evening. They will have to do so without midfielder Paul Anderson who broke his leg against Posh and again fate does seem to be smiling a little on United. However, City have played really well in their last three road starts and they, like every team who has faced United in recent weeks will get chances and probably numerous ones and I would be amazed if there were not goals in this for both teams. City are hard hit by injury and weakened on both flanks and the home side could have a lot of joy out wide and despite all their defensive failings, have scored 14 in their last six starts, two or more in each and a feature of those games has been early goals, with 14 before the half hour mark in their last seven games, two or more in six and that always helps with "overs" !


over 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Leicester City- Aston Villa City have been proving fun to watch, they have yet to keep a cleansheet, or taste defeat, scoring 12 goals themselves , Villa are struggling defensively, conceding 11 in their last four EPL away starts, that includes a 1-0 win at Bournemouth, where they should have conceded at least twice, they also shipped three at home to League 2 Notts County in the Capital One Cup and two at Villa Park to Sunderland and Tim Sherwood has a big ask sorting out his backline. He is a very offensive minded coach anyway and always wants to play on the front foot, it was always going to be tough to replace Christian Benteke, but his team have been creating chances and pose a big aerial threat especially through Rudi Gestede and the crosses of left-back Jordan Amavi and the same is also true of the Foxes who have scored a EPL high three headed goals and Villa showed a weak spot in defending crosses/corners versus Crystal Palace. Therefore, we can surely look for both to be getting the ball into the box at every opportunity and as quickly as possible and neither team looks likely to keep a clean sheet. I can actually see improvement in Villa and when Amavi and Leandro Bacuna do not go quite so gung-ho on the flanks , or get protection, they will look more solid and Sherwood is looking to address this with a change in formation ( but been unable to work on it over the break, with key players away on international duty) and whilst I see the visitors having more than a 20% (5.0) chance of winning this, they are another team who will probably be stronger in 3-4 weeks time. For today, I suspect they will need to score at least once and probably twice to get something out of this, both to score looks solid, but 1.80 is way too short for me, so ..... over 2.75 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket will be my pick and a 2-2 draw my suggestion for any adventurous minded readers.

Leicester City- Aston Villa City have been proving fun to watch, they have yet to keep a cleansheet, or taste defeat, scoring 12 goals themselves , Villa are struggling defensively, conceding 11 in their last four EPL away starts, that includes a 1-0 win at Bournemouth, where they should have conceded at least twice, they also shipped three at home to League 2 Notts County in the Capital One Cup and two at Villa Park to Sunderland and Tim Sherwood has a big ask sorting out his backline. He is a very offensive minded coach anyway and always wants to play on the front foot, it was always going to be tough to replace Christian Benteke, but his team have been creating chances and pose a big aerial threat especially through Rudi Gestede and the crosses of left-back Jordan Amavi and the same is also true of the Foxes who have scored a EPL high three headed goals and Villa showed a weak spot in defending crosses/corners versus Crystal Palace. Therefore, we can surely look for both to be getting the ball into the box at every opportunity and as quickly as possible and neither team looks likely to keep a clean sheet. I can actually see improvement in Villa and when Amavi and Leandro Bacuna do not go quite so gung-ho on the flanks , or get protection, they will look more solid and Sherwood is looking to address this with a change in formation ( but been unable to work on it over the break, with key players away on international duty) and whilst I see the visitors having more than a 20% (5.0) chance of winning this, they are another team who will probably be stronger in 3-4 weeks time. For today, I suspect they will need to score at least once and probably twice to get something out of this, both to score looks solid, but 1.80 is way too short for me, so ..... over 2.75 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket will be my pick and a 2-2 draw my suggestion for any adventurous minded readers.

Leicester City- Aston Villa City have been proving fun to watch, they have yet to keep a cleansheet, or taste defeat, scoring 12 goals themselves , Villa are struggling defensively, conceding 11 in their last four EPL away starts, that includes a 1-0 win at Bournemouth, where they should have conceded at least twice, they also shipped three at home to League 2 Notts County in the Capital One Cup and two at Villa Park to Sunderland and Tim Sherwood has a big ask sorting out his backline. He is a very offensive minded coach anyway and always wants to play on the front foot, it was always going to be tough to replace Christian Benteke, but his team have been creating chances and pose a big aerial threat especially through Rudi Gestede and the crosses of left-back Jordan Amavi and the same is also true of the Foxes who have scored a EPL high three headed goals and Villa showed a weak spot in defending crosses/corners versus Crystal Palace. Therefore, we can surely look for both to be getting the ball into the box at every opportunity and as quickly as possible and neither team looks likely to keep a clean sheet. I can actually see improvement in Villa and when Amavi and Leandro Bacuna do not go quite so gung-ho on the flanks , or get protection, they will look more solid and Sherwood is looking to address this with a change in formation ( but been unable to work on it over the break, with key players away on international duty) and whilst I see the visitors having more than a 20% (5.0) chance of winning this, they are another team who will probably be stronger in 3-4 weeks time. For today, I suspect they will need to score at least once and probably twice to get something out of this, both to score looks solid, but 1.80 is way too short for me, so ..... over 2.75 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket will be my pick and a 2-2 draw my suggestion for any adventurous minded readers.

Leicester City- Aston Villa City have been proving fun to watch, they have yet to keep a cleansheet, or taste defeat, scoring 12 goals themselves , Villa are struggling defensively, conceding 11 in their last four EPL away starts, that includes a 1-0 win at Bournemouth, where they should have conceded at least twice, they also shipped three at home to League 2 Notts County in the Capital One Cup and two at Villa Park to Sunderland and Tim Sherwood has a big ask sorting out his backline. He is a very offensive minded coach anyway and always wants to play on the front foot, it was always going to be tough to replace Christian Benteke, but his team have been creating chances and pose a big aerial threat especially through Rudi Gestede and the crosses of left-back Jordan Amavi and the same is also true of the Foxes who have scored a EPL high three headed goals and Villa showed a weak spot in defending crosses/corners versus Crystal Palace. Therefore, we can surely look for both to be getting the ball into the box at every opportunity and as quickly as possible and neither team looks likely to keep a clean sheet. I can actually see improvement in Villa and when Amavi and Leandro Bacuna do not go quite so gung-ho on the flanks , or get protection, they will look more solid and Sherwood is looking to address this with a change in formation ( but been unable to work on it over the break, with key players away on international duty) and whilst I see the visitors having more than a 20% (5.0) chance of winning this, they are another team who will probably be stronger in 3-4 weeks time. For today, I suspect they will need to score at least once and probably twice to get something out of this, both to score looks solid, but 1.80 is way too short for me, so ..... over 2.75 goals 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket will be my pick and a 2-2 draw my suggestion for any adventurous minded readers.

Crystal Palace- Manchester City I do not want to spend too long on this, I have no issue with City as EPL favourites and they might even run away with the title, but they were not favourites pre season and to be quoted at 1.44-1.50 after four matches is absolutely crazy in my opinion. "Palace are their closest challengers at present and they have made a very solid start to their season and to out bets on them in the outright markets, pre season I wrote .... Palace had a great first season in the Premier league in 2013-14 finishing 11th, the second season is always the tough one and they looked in trouble at the turn of the year, but Alan Pardew arrived at New Year and the favourite son of Palace fans took them on an amazing run, 32 points in the second half of the season which equates to 5th spot over a full campaign and they finished tenth, three points and one spot better than under Tony Pulis. This was not a total surprise, ok maybe the manner or it was, but I know a couple of Palace supporters and was well aware of how much Pardew is loved there and the galvanising effect he could have on the club and when he is supported and backed, he is a good coach. We discussed his arrival in some depth and notes from his first couple of starts are reproduced below and they beat Tottenham in that first home league game. Where can they go from here ? That is the big question and to be honest, for any mid table side and we have to now consider Palace that, it is always easier to fall back and get involved in a relegation scrap, which is obviously easier than the quantum leap required to challenge for a top six spot, but I do not see them heading downwards and there is a bit of leeway in terms of a 7-10th place finish. Pardew took West Ham United to 9th and an FA Cup Final in the same season and Newcastle United into Europe, so has history, but South London is where his heart is being a local lad and he has certainly not lacked for support from the board, who have allowed him to upgrade his squad significantly. He has signed Yohan Cabaye (PSG) a player he had under him at Newcastle, Patrick Bamford (Chelsea) and Connor Wickham ( Sunderland) , without losing anyone he wanted to keep from last season's squad, this is hugely impressive and I see improvement likely for the Eagles. There is certainly room for it in terms of home form, last season they collect 27 of 48 points on the road and lost ten times at Selhurst Park, which was surprising as the atmosphere there is incredibly good, Even if they could just find another 9 points winning three of those ten, that would have been enough for 8th and to within two points of Southampton who had a stunning season. Obviously there is good potential and still room to improve. I am going to suggest we split our stakes and bet them to finish "best of the rest" so without the big 6 clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, United, City, Liverpool and Tottenham, along with a top ten finish bet, they were within a spot in 2013-14, made it last season and have majorly upgraded their squad and odds look too big, for what I make a coin flip." I am full of admiration for the job that Alan Pardew has done and he is the right coach, for the right club (his club) at the right time and I have seen nothing to make me think they will not be competing for a top 6-8 spot, maybe even better and the squad is very strong with Pardew looking to push out on loan, players whom supporters would have been drooling over 18 months ago. Having already beaten Chelsea and Arsenal, City will not have the Eagles quaking in their boots and Palace beat the light blues here just five months ago and a repeat would certainly not surprise, although this has a drawish look to me, regardless of which, the handicap start is too big for me to resist. Crystal Palace +0.75 ball 2.00 asian line/Sportmarket.

ATP: Stanislas Wawrinka- Kevin Anderson We spoke a lot at Roland Garros about how focused Stanislas Wawrinka had been all season about winning the French Open and how he had targeted that above everything else and had even been able to put aside off court issues which have been well documented and have continued, to take the one title he wanted above all others. He has not played a huge amount of tennis since , just four events, seven for his opponent and it must be hard for Wawrinka to not feel that targets for the year have been achieved and in truth, given all the other issues he has had to deal with, he could probably do with a break. Anyway, regardless of that, he will have to be at his best to win today. Kevin Anderson leads the h2h 4-3, but has all the h2h momentum having won the last four meetings, three of which have been played in the last 12 months, including post RG at Queen's and he also took a set in the two losses before that, so continual improvement in those last six match ups. The last five meetings have produced seven tie breaks, with two other sets going to 12 games and with the South African serving as well as anyone with 25 aces versus Andy Murray in R4 and not being broken in R2 or 3, small margins and tie breaks are likely to again decide this and those are Anderson's forte. He came into this tournament on the back of a confidence boosting win in a lower level event and has got winning momentum with nine staright victories and I favour him to reach double digits this evening. Wawrinka is a late developer and took a long while to come from out of the very long shadow cast by countryman Roger Federer, but he has a losing record lifetime versus top 20 players on all surfaces and just a 37% win record against top 20 taller players and I will take that trend to continue and Anderson, who is applying for dual US- South African citizenship to post another "upset" win in his "new" nation. Kevin Anderson to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 2.375 + , there is 2.42 with Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro and 2.46 for low liquidity ( currently) on Betfair.

ATP: Maric Cilic- Jo Wilfried Tsonga I love JWT who is always great fun to watch and he is my youngest daughter's favourite player by far, but I cannot really agree with him being such a short priced favourite today. The French star has never made it beyond the quarters in seven attempts at the US Open and he has underperformed time and time again in slams, at least in relation to his ability and come up short far too often against fellow top ranked players. Since making his one slam final back in 2008, he has failed to go beyond R4 14 times, made ten quarters, where he is 5-5 and is 0-5 in semis, that is not a "bad" record and many tennis players would snatch your hand off for it, but he should have done much better and a two week tournament is more often than not 4-5 days too long for him ! He is 35-68 through his career versus top 10 ranked players and just 50% against those ranked 6-10 which is his peer group, he has a 33% win rate against top 20 players here and at Wimbledon. Against taller players like Cilic, that record is far worse, he is 15-33 through his career versus taller top 20 ranked players, 7-27 versus the top ten and 2-11 in the last three years. Remember that last group doesn't include Djokovic,Federer or Rafa, so is again, very much his peer group. Cilic is defending champion in NY and has a lot of ranking points to defend, he lost the first few months of this season with a shoulder injury, but looks to be coming back to his best now and repeated his quarter final run at Wimbledon from last year and has since played at a similar level in build up events through the hard court season. It was at the quarter final stage last year when he beat Tomas Berdych that he stepped up a level and he must have a better than 42% chance of winning today, but don't tell my daughter ! Marin Cilic to beat Jo Wilfried Tsonga 2.36 Pinnacle Sports/ Sportmarket Pro.

Maccabi Tel Aviv- FC Basel I am very keen on the away win here, Maccabi Tel Aviv forced a 2-2 draw in the first leg, courtesy of a brace from star player Eran Zahavi, who now has six goals in the competition this season, despite creating just five attempts on goal in Basel. That puts them in the driving seat in that a win, or any low scoring draw would see them progress, but there is still a lot of pressure now on the hosts, they have already lost at home to Viktoria Plzen (1-2) in the previous round and also conceded twice here in their domestic opener at the weekend. They did rest a lot of players for that, but still started Zahavi which seemed odd, but he is just so key to everything they do offensively, however, he is surely going to come in for very special attention from the visitors this evening. FC Basel are Champions League veterans, having made that stage in four of the last five seasons, including progressing from a group containing Liverpool and Real Madrid last year. They have got used to the money the competition brings and might even have losely budgeted for it this season, there will definitely be good bonuses on the line. This is far from a trip into the unknown for the Swiss giants, as they knocked Maccabi out of both the Champions and Europa League in 2013-14, which must be some kind of record and so, it will be their third recent visit here, they have yet to lose to the Israeli side in five meetings and in truth, on later reflection, would probably have taken as much confidence out of their domination of the first leg than disappointment at conceding that late equaliser. 85 UEFA ranking places between these two, which is probably flattering to the home side if anything, but an indication of their respective ability and no real "surprise" factor for Maccabi to cling to. Away win. FC Basel -0.5 ball 2.16 asian line/Sportmarket.

England League 1 Outright Gillingham made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons. He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season. He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season. 19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well." Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big. Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus. Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous........... Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money ! Gillingham to finish top six 5.0-5.50 general quote.

England League 1 Outright Gillingham made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons. He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season. He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season. 19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well." Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big. Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus. Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous........... Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money ! Gillingham to finish top six 5.0-5.50 general quote.

England League 1 Outright Gillingham made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons. He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season. He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season. 19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well." Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big. Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus. Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous........... Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money ! Gillingham to finish top six 5.0-5.50 general quote.

England League 1 Outright Gillingham made a managerial change mid season with Justin Edinburgh arriving from Newport County in early February. The former Tottenham player who spent a decade at White Hart Lane, saved County from relegation and took them to the FA Trohy final in his first season in charge and back into the Football League in his second, when he left they were 6th in League 2, they finished in 9th , averaging 0.7 points per game less, after his departure. Gills picked up an additional 0.43 per game after he arrived ( up to 1.61 pts pg) which would have given them 74 over the full season, enough for a playoff spot in each of the last five seasons. He rather quickly identified what was wrong at Priestfield and that was a defence which conceded far too freely, especially on the road and made sorting that out a priority for the off season. He signed left back and Ireland U21 international Bradley Garmston from WBA and central defender Max Ehmer from QPR on permanent deals after the pair spent time at the club on loan in the second half of last season. Gills were 5-3-1 with Garmston in the team and they won 12 of 27 (44%) starts with Ehmer in the back line, just 4 of 19 (21%) otherwise. I understand that both could have joined Championship teams and I really like that they have bought into the Gillingham project. Right back Ryan Jackson has arrived from Edinburgh's former club and is obviously a player he knows well and is said to be very quick, when he played County won 7% more matches and if that doesn't sound too much, that equals 10 points per season. 19 yo Jordan Houghton has signed on loan until Janauary from Chelsea where the defensive midfielder was U21 captain and is well thought of, having signed a three year contract last season. Speaking about this deal Edinburgh said: “Jordan is a very hungry young player who has had an excellent grounding at Chelsea; he won the Youth Cup the season before last, playing an integral part in the process, and has represented his country at three different age groups.“He is a terrific addition to our squad and I look forward to working with him.” Also signed until January is Cardiff City central defender Adedeji Oshilaja who was a big hit at AFC Wimbledon on a lengthy loan last season, he has been very impressed by the young talent at Gillingham and said: " I don’t see why we can’t be going for the play-offs." I am an ambitious person anyway and everyone else is ambitious here as well." Up front, Luke Norris is a player I know well from time time at Brentford, he fell just short of the grade there, but is strong, tall and quick with an eye for goal and having only just turned 22 this month, is still improving and has time on his side, Cody McDonald is a prolific lower league striker with 61 league goals in 134 appearances for the Gills and he has scored at least 16 goals in each of his three full seasons in Kent.They are good options, but Edinburgh has added to them with the signing of Rory Donnelly from Swansea and Ben Williamson who decided to move here instead of signing a new contract at Port Vale. What I really like about all the additions is that they had options, in some cases more attractive looking ones and it just feels this is a team on the fringe of something big. Edinburgh feels he might have found a hidden gem in Emmanuel Osadebe who came from Tottenham Hotspur’s foundation college programme, he was signed late last season , with the idea that he would play a few development games, which he did, impressing everyone in the process, he has been fast tracked to the first team squad and started a couple of pre season games, anyway, anything from him will be a bonus. Gills caught my attention last season not only by their results at the end of the campaign, but how comfortable they looked against the better teams, beating MK Dons ( 2nd) 4-2, Sheffield United (5th) 2-0 and Swindon Town (4th) away 3-0 , also drawing 0-0 with champions Bristol City on the road. They have clearly strengthened significantly and they look certain to step up on last season's 12th placed finish, supporters are getting very excited and believe this is the best squad the club have had since 2000 when they made it to the now Championship for the first time. There is a little 2.50 around to finish top half if you can find it and obviously I feel that is good value, but we can be a little more adventurous........... Gillingham to win League 1 @ 34.0 general quote.....there is a little circa 41.0 around.............this is a "cheap" bet and I think you will get a good run for your money ! Gillingham to finish top six 5.0-5.50 general quote.

MLS: Real Salt Lake- Sporting KC Big rivalry between these two and recent encounters have been "spicy" and are always very physical. To that end alone, I feel that SKC are at a disadvantage given that they have played Saturday-Tuesday- Friday over the last week and due to injury and international call ups, could barely rotate for the midweek US Open Cup game and 13 of the 14 who played against Houston in the last league game, also featured on Tuesday when they took almost an hour to get on top of the ten men of Houston, in what was an incredibly hard fought encounter. The way the match played out meant that head coach Peter Vermes felt unable to make two substitutions until injury time and this must be a team running on empty right now and I doubt a battle against a bitter rival just three days later and on the road is going to suit them. Having said that, there is nothing wrong with the form of Sporting and their only loss in 14 starts was here in Salt Lake just five weeks ago, but nine of those fixtures were at home and of the five on the road they are 1-3-1 and that sole victory aside, it is over a year since they won on the road without a goal from Zusi or Opara who are both absent this evening. RSL are missing key players too, with Olave, Beckerman and Rimando unavailable, but they have had a free midweek to prepare solely for this and have only left Salt Lake once, for the short hop to play Colorado, in the last month and will clearly be the fresher of the two squads. They felt they played their best football of the season in the first half of the last meeting, when they really took the game to SKC and could have been 2-3 up at the break, we might well see a similarly flying start from them this evening and to be honest, I do not feel that the visitors should be favourites for this. Hosts are very strong at home and have lost just once in 26 home starts since early June last year, they pride themselves on the Rio Tinto Stadium being a fortress and with two road games up next and already six points adrift of a post season spot they see as theirs by right, this is a fixture they have to get something from. Real Salt Lake level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.