JuMeSyn

Odds for SL Benfica x Zenit are a joke.
SL Benfica was truly having a great comeback in the Championship, they were on a 11-win streak with lots of goals scored in most of them, but were stopped by FC Porto at home (1-2), even though Casillas did a magic performance. With that, SL Benfica lost the 1st place to Sporting CP and now sits 3 points behind.
SL Benfica was demolishing every bottom tier team they find for the Championship and other national competitions since the start of the season, with regular 3-0, 4-0, 4-1, even 6-0 or 6-1 wins. Their attacking unit is outstanding, easily the best of the championship and one of the best in Europe, playing in 4-4-2 which is a 4-2-4 in attack, with the likes of Gaitan, Pizzi, Mitroglou and Jonas. They now even have Salvio back from a serious injury, and he will probably start playing more from 2/3 weeks. In the middle they also have 18 year old rising star Renato Sanches, which is a big player at his age, but lacks some qualities in terms of defensive quality.
And that is where the weak point of SL Benfica starts. Rui Vitoria (Benfica manager) has all the credit for getting the best to play together and when they are up for it, they create chance after chance, and know how to convert it. But they are not so organized in the middle and in their backline while on their defensive phase. They gets easily exposed to teams that play like a team and know how to exploit Benfica's lack of organization in the defensive phase. In the middle, currently Renato Sanches and Samaris have great work rate but are not the best players in terms of defensive positioning. Fesja usually plays instead of Samaris but is currently doubtful. Then, both wing-backs get upfront regularly, which usually leaves a lot of space in the wings to start the counters. Lisandro and Jardel are your usual defensive line, and are doing a great double but they usually make mistakes against stronger teams and players.
Another BIG stat for you. Against stronger teams, this season, Benfica lost 6 and won 1. Benfica lost 3 times to Sporting Lisbon (including an humiliating 0-3 home loss) this season, two times to FC Porto and against Atlético Madrid at home. They managed to win 2-1 at Atletico Madrid, in a match where Julio Cesar saved them from drawing or even losing. This stat shows what I've said before. For me, they are like Manchester City in the BPL...steamrolling teams below top-10, but when they get a stronger team, they lose. Just happened today against Tottenham, for example. The attack plays by themselves, but lack of defensive organization puts them in their place.
Zenit is not having their best season in the championship, and I'm expecting that they will invest a lot in the Champions League this season. They have a good manager, which usually knows how to win against SL Benfica (managed to win against them in the group phase last season, usually won with FC Porto) and they have a great team.
Sure, they are without competitive matches for a while and that could be a letdown eventually, but I believe they will be ok. They know of the importance of this match, I'm expecting a fully fit team that might need 5/10 initial minutes to get the competitive mentality back in, and they could as well lack fitness for the last 5 minutes. However, in between, their individual quality and team will prove at least enough for Benfica. The attack, especially, will do a lot of damage with Dzyuba, Kokorin and especially Hulk. Moreover, Shatov is also a great player, while Witsel and Javi Garcia could control the midfield at their pleasure against Renato Sanches and Samaris, which still have not convinced me.
As I said before, get Benfica a strong team to play against, and they crumble. For me, Benfica won't win here. If they do, it will be a hard 2-1, 3-2 affair, but I'm predicting a draw, or even a Zenit win. As I said before, SL Benfica could be great upfront, but they don't get to create that many chances against stronger teams and they are awfully organized in the back, hoping that Julio Cesar or an individual tackle saves them.

I would never price Benfica 2.05 here, but 2.40.
However, and maybe expecting Benfica to push a hard win or a draw, I'm not going for Zenit here. But for goals. Zenit could be having some trouble in getting back in the competitive rythm, but their attack is strong enough to score 1 or 2. On the other hand, Benfica's attack is very, very strong and could also score 1 or 2. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.36 is a joke here, should be much lower.

1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, but that was 5 years ago. 1 loss when Villas Boas was an Academica de Coimbra manager (2-1). While at FC Porto one away win (3-0) and home draw in the last match of the season when FC Porto was already the champion (3-3). In all of these encounters, Rui Vitoria was Paços de Ferreira manager.

Still early to call it as it is, but Astana have a big chance of upsetting SL Benfica.
SL Benfica may be the first of their group in the CL, but it is nothing short than a big lie. They are first because of the 2-1 win in Vicente Calderon, where they were outplayed for most of the time and Julio Cesar and a very spirited exhibition from them made the win. But tactically speaking, the team is very well below what their real ambitions are and does not play well. They manage to create good plays once in a while, but all are merit from individual skills from Gaitan, Jonas or Mitroglou. Defensively, they are even worst...They are led by Rui Vitória, a very average manager that is starting to be criticised by the fans since the 0-3 home loss against Sporting in October. I seriously think he will be dismissed before the end of the season.
Yesterday, SL Benfica played an ET against Sporting once again for the Portuguese Cup, and lost 1-2, therefore going off the cup. Currently they face 8 points behind the leaders Sporting, next match is against Braga away (where they will possibly lose more points). Many players ended the match with serious physical difficulties, Luisão actually got injured and will be off for 2 months. Gaitan also with physical troubles but he will not be able to play due to suspension. And he is the most important SL Benfica player. Actually most of the attacking dynamics depend on him solely. Adding to that, Mitroglou and Jonas are also doubtful (but will probably play), while Fesja and Semedo are still recovering from injuries.
I should also add that Benfica will also travel to Kazakhstan. It is a very long and tiresome trip. And that adding to the fact that most of the first team players did play 120 minutes yesterday...
On the other hand, Astana already proved well enough in this group. Not the most individually skilled team, but well organized and looked excellent from what I've saw against Benfica away and Atletico home. Managed to stop Atletico at home and until the Benfica 1-0, they actually were the best team and had the best chances. Astana knows that this a crucial moment and will fight hard no matter what, even if for the draw, just for the 500m€ in case of draw.
For me, everything is set for Astana to cause an upset. I actually think that they will win, due to all the circumstances that I've noted, but a draw could also be possible because SL Benfica still has more individual quality. I will go for the Draw or Astana @ 2.33 (Unibet) 70% and Astana @ 6.2 (Marathon Bet) 30%

Still early to call it as it is, but Astana have a big chance of upsetting SL Benfica.
SL Benfica may be the first of their group in the CL, but it is nothing short than a big lie. They are first because of the 2-1 win in Vicente Calderon, where they were outplayed for most of the time and Julio Cesar and a very spirited exhibition from them made the win. But tactically speaking, the team is very well below what their real ambitions are and does not play well. They manage to create good plays once in a while, but all are merit from individual skills from Gaitan, Jonas or Mitroglou. Defensively, they are even worst...They are led by Rui Vitória, a very average manager that is starting to be criticised by the fans since the 0-3 home loss against Sporting in October. I seriously think he will be dismissed before the end of the season.
Yesterday, SL Benfica played an ET against Sporting once again for the Portuguese Cup, and lost 1-2, therefore going off the cup. Currently they face 8 points behind the leaders Sporting, next match is against Braga away (where they will possibly lose more points). Many players ended the match with serious physical difficulties, Luisão actually got injured and will be off for 2 months. Gaitan also with physical troubles but he will not be able to play due to suspension. And he is the most important SL Benfica player. Actually most of the attacking dynamics depend on him solely. Adding to that, Mitroglou and Jonas are also doubtful (but will probably play), while Fesja and Semedo are still recovering from injuries.
I should also add that Benfica will also travel to Kazakhstan. It is a very long and tiresome trip. And that adding to the fact that most of the first team players did play 120 minutes yesterday...
On the other hand, Astana already proved well enough in this group. Not the most individually skilled team, but well organized and looked excellent from what I've saw against Benfica away and Atletico home. Managed to stop Atletico at home and until the Benfica 1-0, they actually were the best team and had the best chances. Astana knows that this a crucial moment and will fight hard no matter what, even if for the draw, just for the 500m€ in case of draw.
For me, everything is set for Astana to cause an upset. I actually think that they will win, due to all the circumstances that I've noted, but a draw could also be possible because SL Benfica still has more individual quality. I will go for the Draw or Astana @ 2.33 (Unibet) 70% and Astana @ 6.2 (Marathon Bet) 30%

Been off betting for a while due to restrictions that are being made here in Portugal regarding betting (licensing processes are currently undergoing here), but would like to express my point of view regarding my team's Sporting Portugal match against CSKA Moscow. Sporting Portugal has a big addition for this season: Jorge Jesus. Yes, that manager. After 6 years in big rivals SL Benfica, where he won 3 championships, 4 league cups, 1 Portugal Cup, 1 Supercup and 2 EL finals, a shock move during the pre-season from Sporting Portugal happened. Sporting got some players during the pre-season that will definitely be important players during the season, such as Aquilani, João Pereira and Bryan Ruiz. Other players such as Teofilo Gutierrez and Naldo will also play a role during this season. The objective is to be champion after 14 years of second and third places (and sometimes, even below!) Sporting already won the Supercup against SL Benfica (1-0), where they did a very dominant exhibition against big rivals. We had a few troubles in winning against CD Tondela's (2-1) defensive approach, but their goal was irregular and we just missed too much on the first half (we could have been winning 3-0 by the end of it, honestly). Saw CSKA against Spartak Moscow and they looked very dangerous on the counter. Musa and Doumbia are fast-paced and will definitely cause havoc should Sporting defense be unfocused for a while. Their defensive line is very experienced but seemed to lack pace, and Mário Fernandes leaves a lot of space behind when going up, and Sporting will definitely exploit that. I'm really surprised at the Overs here. 2.2 is just too much for two teams that care a lot about attack. Sure, CSKA has only conceded once in the Russian League but have conceded 4 goals against Sparta Prague, an average teams in CL standards and scored 5. Moreover, I rate Sporting Portugal highly defensively, Jorge Jesus really knows how to organize his teams defensively but it is a high-risk offside trap approach. I can see Musa and Doumbia having 1/2 chances of avoiding the offside trap and maybe scoring. We could definifely see overs here but I'm concerned that a 2-0 or 1-1 is very possible as well. But, if there is one team to score twice here, it is Sporting Portugal. While lacking finishing at certain times during a match, we are looking very impressive on attack and I expect them to hit the gas right at the start (João Mário, Sporting player at the press conference, hinted on that) and to score once or twice against a CSKA that does not look like the team of playing defensively ir order to give a big mental advantage. Even though if that does not happen, I expect Sporting to definitely score at least once during the match, and maybe twice... Therefore, Over 1.5 Sporting Portugal Team Goals @ 2.25 (William Hill) is a great odd and I would definitely give it a go if I could.

Been off betting for a while due to restrictions that are being made here in Portugal regarding betting (licensing processes are currently undergoing here), but would like to express my point of view regarding my team's Sporting Portugal match against CSKA Moscow. Sporting Portugal has a big addition for this season: Jorge Jesus. Yes, that manager. After 6 years in big rivals SL Benfica, where he won 3 championships, 4 league cups, 1 Portugal Cup, 1 Supercup and 2 EL finals, a shock move during the pre-season from Sporting Portugal happened. Sporting got some players during the pre-season that will definitely be important players during the season, such as Aquilani, João Pereira and Bryan Ruiz. Other players such as Teofilo Gutierrez and Naldo will also play a role during this season. The objective is to be champion after 14 years of second and third places (and sometimes, even below!) Sporting already won the Supercup against SL Benfica (1-0), where they did a very dominant exhibition against big rivals. We had a few troubles in winning against CD Tondela's (2-1) defensive approach, but their goal was irregular and we just missed too much on the first half (we could have been winning 3-0 by the end of it, honestly). Saw CSKA against Spartak Moscow and they looked very dangerous on the counter. Musa and Doumbia are fast-paced and will definitely cause havoc should Sporting defense be unfocused for a while. Their defensive line is very experienced but seemed to lack pace, and Mário Fernandes leaves a lot of space behind when going up, and Sporting will definitely exploit that. I'm really surprised at the Overs here. 2.2 is just too much for two teams that care a lot about attack. Sure, CSKA has only conceded once in the Russian League but have conceded 4 goals against Sparta Prague, an average teams in CL standards and scored 5. Moreover, I rate Sporting Portugal highly defensively, Jorge Jesus really knows how to organize his teams defensively but it is a high-risk offside trap approach. I can see Musa and Doumbia having 1/2 chances of avoiding the offside trap and maybe scoring. We could definifely see overs here but I'm concerned that a 2-0 or 1-1 is very possible as well. But, if there is one team to score twice here, it is Sporting Portugal. While lacking finishing at certain times during a match, we are looking very impressive on attack and I expect them to hit the gas right at the start (João Mário, Sporting player at the press conference, hinted on that) and to score once or twice against a CSKA that does not look like the team of playing defensively ir order to give a big mental advantage. Even though if that does not happen, I expect Sporting to definitely score at least once during the match, and maybe twice... Therefore, Over 1.5 Sporting Portugal Team Goals @ 2.25 (William Hill) is a great odd and I would definitely give it a go if I could.

Been off betting for a while due to restrictions that are being made here in Portugal regarding betting (licensing processes are currently undergoing here), but would like to express my point of view regarding my team's Sporting Portugal match against CSKA Moscow. Sporting Portugal has a big addition for this season: Jorge Jesus. Yes, that manager. After 6 years in big rivals SL Benfica, where he won 3 championships, 4 league cups, 1 Portugal Cup, 1 Supercup and 2 EL finals, a shock move during the pre-season from Sporting Portugal happened. Sporting got some players during the pre-season that will definitely be important players during the season, such as Aquilani, João Pereira and Bryan Ruiz. Other players such as Teofilo Gutierrez and Naldo will also play a role during this season. The objective is to be champion after 14 years of second and third places (and sometimes, even below!) Sporting already won the Supercup against SL Benfica (1-0), where they did a very dominant exhibition against big rivals. We had a few troubles in winning against CD Tondela's (2-1) defensive approach, but their goal was irregular and we just missed too much on the first half (we could have been winning 3-0 by the end of it, honestly). Saw CSKA against Spartak Moscow and they looked very dangerous on the counter. Musa and Doumbia are fast-paced and will definitely cause havoc should Sporting defense be unfocused for a while. Their defensive line is very experienced but seemed to lack pace, and Mário Fernandes leaves a lot of space behind when going up, and Sporting will definitely exploit that. I'm really surprised at the Overs here. 2.2 is just too much for two teams that care a lot about attack. Sure, CSKA has only conceded once in the Russian League but have conceded 4 goals against Sparta Prague, an average teams in CL standards and scored 5. Moreover, I rate Sporting Portugal highly defensively, Jorge Jesus really knows how to organize his teams defensively but it is a high-risk offside trap approach. I can see Musa and Doumbia having 1/2 chances of avoiding the offside trap and maybe scoring. We could definifely see overs here but I'm concerned that a 2-0 or 1-1 is very possible as well. But, if there is one team to score twice here, it is Sporting Portugal. While lacking finishing at certain times during a match, we are looking very impressive on attack and I expect them to hit the gas right at the start (João Mário, Sporting player at the press conference, hinted on that) and to score once or twice against a CSKA that does not look like the team of playing defensively ir order to give a big mental advantage. Even though if that does not happen, I expect Sporting to definitely score at least once during the match, and maybe twice... Therefore, Over 1.5 Sporting Portugal Team Goals @ 2.25 (William Hill) is a great odd and I would definitely give it a go if I could.

Been off betting for a while due to restrictions that are being made here in Portugal regarding betting (licensing processes are currently undergoing here), but would like to express my point of view regarding my team's Sporting Portugal match against CSKA Moscow. Sporting Portugal has a big addition for this season: Jorge Jesus. Yes, that manager. After 6 years in big rivals SL Benfica, where he won 3 championships, 4 league cups, 1 Portugal Cup, 1 Supercup and 2 EL finals, a shock move during the pre-season from Sporting Portugal happened. Sporting got some players during the pre-season that will definitely be important players during the season, such as Aquilani, João Pereira and Bryan Ruiz. Other players such as Teofilo Gutierrez and Naldo will also play a role during this season. The objective is to be champion after 14 years of second and third places (and sometimes, even below!) Sporting already won the Supercup against SL Benfica (1-0), where they did a very dominant exhibition against big rivals. We had a few troubles in winning against CD Tondela's (2-1) defensive approach, but their goal was irregular and we just missed too much on the first half (we could have been winning 3-0 by the end of it, honestly). Saw CSKA against Spartak Moscow and they looked very dangerous on the counter. Musa and Doumbia are fast-paced and will definitely cause havoc should Sporting defense be unfocused for a while. Their defensive line is very experienced but seemed to lack pace, and Mário Fernandes leaves a lot of space behind when going up, and Sporting will definitely exploit that. I'm really surprised at the Overs here. 2.2 is just too much for two teams that care a lot about attack. Sure, CSKA has only conceded once in the Russian League but have conceded 4 goals against Sparta Prague, an average teams in CL standards and scored 5. Moreover, I rate Sporting Portugal highly defensively, Jorge Jesus really knows how to organize his teams defensively but it is a high-risk offside trap approach. I can see Musa and Doumbia having 1/2 chances of avoiding the offside trap and maybe scoring. We could definifely see overs here but I'm concerned that a 2-0 or 1-1 is very possible as well. But, if there is one team to score twice here, it is Sporting Portugal. While lacking finishing at certain times during a match, we are looking very impressive on attack and I expect them to hit the gas right at the start (João Mário, Sporting player at the press conference, hinted on that) and to score once or twice against a CSKA that does not look like the team of playing defensively ir order to give a big mental advantage. Even though if that does not happen, I expect Sporting to definitely score at least once during the match, and maybe twice... Therefore, Over 1.5 Sporting Portugal Team Goals @ 2.25 (William Hill) is a great odd and I would definitely give it a go if I could.