JuMeSyn
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Posts posted by JuMeSyn
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15 hours ago, MPLouis said:
Re. Benfica v Zenit
I watched Benfica v Porto last Friday 11th Feb, expecting Benfica to win. But I saw Benfica struggle and thought Porto deserved their 2-1 win. The online commentators said that Porto's manager had a very good record against Benfica's - I think they said Benfica's manager had never beaten his counterpart. I wondered what Zenit's manager's record is against this Benfica's manager?
1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, but that was 5 years ago. 1 loss when Villas Boas was an Academica de Coimbra manager (2-1). While at FC Porto one away win (3-0) and home draw in the last match of the season when FC Porto was already the champion (3-3). In all of these encounters, Rui Vitoria was Paços de Ferreira manager.
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Odds for SL Benfica x Zenit are a joke.
SL Benfica was truly having a great comeback in the Championship, they were on a 11-win streak with lots of goals scored in most of them, but were stopped by FC Porto at home (1-2), even though Casillas did a magic performance. With that, SL Benfica lost the 1st place to Sporting CP and now sits 3 points behind.
SL Benfica was demolishing every bottom tier team they find for the Championship and other national competitions since the start of the season, with regular 3-0, 4-0, 4-1, even 6-0 or 6-1 wins. Their attacking unit is outstanding, easily the best of the championship and one of the best in Europe, playing in 4-4-2 which is a 4-2-4 in attack, with the likes of Gaitan, Pizzi, Mitroglou and Jonas. They now even have Salvio back from a serious injury, and he will probably start playing more from 2/3 weeks. In the middle they also have 18 year old rising star Renato Sanches, which is a big player at his age, but lacks some qualities in terms of defensive quality.
And that is where the weak point of SL Benfica starts. Rui Vitoria (Benfica manager) has all the credit for getting the best to play together and when they are up for it, they create chance after chance, and know how to convert it. But they are not so organized in the middle and in their backline while on their defensive phase. They gets easily exposed to teams that play like a team and know how to exploit Benfica's lack of organization in the defensive phase. In the middle, currently Renato Sanches and Samaris have great work rate but are not the best players in terms of defensive positioning. Fesja usually plays instead of Samaris but is currently doubtful. Then, both wing-backs get upfront regularly, which usually leaves a lot of space in the wings to start the counters. Lisandro and Jardel are your usual defensive line, and are doing a great double but they usually make mistakes against stronger teams and players.
Another BIG stat for you. Against stronger teams, this season, Benfica lost 6 and won 1. Benfica lost 3 times to Sporting Lisbon (including an humiliating 0-3 home loss) this season, two times to FC Porto and against Atlético Madrid at home. They managed to win 2-1 at Atletico Madrid, in a match where Julio Cesar saved them from drawing or even losing. This stat shows what I've said before. For me, they are like Manchester City in the BPL...steamrolling teams below top-10, but when they get a stronger team, they lose. Just happened today against Tottenham, for example. The attack plays by themselves, but lack of defensive organization puts them in their place.
Zenit is not having their best season in the championship, and I'm expecting that they will invest a lot in the Champions League this season. They have a good manager, which usually knows how to win against SL Benfica (managed to win against them in the group phase last season, usually won with FC Porto) and they have a great team.
Sure, they are without competitive matches for a while and that could be a letdown eventually, but I believe they will be ok. They know of the importance of this match, I'm expecting a fully fit team that might need 5/10 initial minutes to get the competitive mentality back in, and they could as well lack fitness for the last 5 minutes. However, in between, their individual quality and team will prove at least enough for Benfica. The attack, especially, will do a lot of damage with Dzyuba, Kokorin and especially Hulk. Moreover, Shatov is also a great player, while Witsel and Javi Garcia could control the midfield at their pleasure against Renato Sanches and Samaris, which still have not convinced me.
As I said before, get Benfica a strong team to play against, and they crumble. For me, Benfica won't win here. If they do, it will be a hard 2-1, 3-2 affair, but I'm predicting a draw, or even a Zenit win. As I said before, SL Benfica could be great upfront, but they don't get to create that many chances against stronger teams and they are awfully organized in the back, hoping that Julio Cesar or an individual tackle saves them.
I would never price Benfica 2.05 here, but 2.40.However, and maybe expecting Benfica to push a hard win or a draw, I'm not going for Zenit here. But for goals. Zenit could be having some trouble in getting back in the competitive rythm, but their attack is strong enough to score 1 or 2. On the other hand, Benfica's attack is very, very strong and could also score 1 or 2. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.36 is a joke here, should be much lower.
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Astana 2 - SL Benfica 2
And Benfica were very lucky to escape with a win.
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When their manager was not Rafa...which is one of the most overrated managers ever. Moreover, rumours regarding the squad say that the players are not with him and trip to Ukraine is never easy. Great home factor from them.
I can easily see this turn out as a bore 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
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Still early to call it as it is, but Astana have a big chance of upsetting SL Benfica.
SL Benfica may be the first of their group in the CL, but it is nothing short than a big lie. They are first because of the 2-1 win in Vicente Calderon, where they were outplayed for most of the time and Julio Cesar and a very spirited exhibition from them made the win. But tactically speaking, the team is very well below what their real ambitions are and does not play well. They manage to create good plays once in a while, but all are merit from individual skills from Gaitan, Jonas or Mitroglou. Defensively, they are even worst...They are led by Rui Vitória, a very average manager that is starting to be criticised by the fans since the 0-3 home loss against Sporting in October. I seriously think he will be dismissed before the end of the season.
Yesterday, SL Benfica played an ET against Sporting once again for the Portuguese Cup, and lost 1-2, therefore going off the cup. Currently they face 8 points behind the leaders Sporting, next match is against Braga away (where they will possibly lose more points). Many players ended the match with serious physical difficulties, Luisão actually got injured and will be off for 2 months. Gaitan also with physical troubles but he will not be able to play due to suspension. And he is the most important SL Benfica player. Actually most of the attacking dynamics depend on him solely. Adding to that, Mitroglou and Jonas are also doubtful (but will probably play), while Fesja and Semedo are still recovering from injuries.
I should also add that Benfica will also travel to Kazakhstan. It is a very long and tiresome trip. And that adding to the fact that most of the first team players did play 120 minutes yesterday...
On the other hand, Astana already proved well enough in this group. Not the most individually skilled team, but well organized and looked excellent from what I've saw against Benfica away and Atletico home. Managed to stop Atletico at home and until the Benfica 1-0, they actually were the best team and had the best chances. Astana knows that this a crucial moment and will fight hard no matter what, even if for the draw, just for the 500m€ in case of draw.
For me, everything is set for Astana to cause an upset. I actually think that they will win, due to all the circumstances that I've noted, but a draw could also be possible because SL Benfica still has more individual quality. I will go for the Draw or Astana @ 2.33 (Unibet) 70% and Astana @ 6.2 (Marathon Bet) 30%
- sabkisehat and MPLouis
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Been off betting for a while due to restrictions that are being made here in Portugal regarding betting (licensing processes are currently undergoing here), but would like to express my point of view regarding my team's Sporting Portugal match against CSKA Moscow. Sporting Portugal has a big addition for this season: Jorge Jesus. Yes, that manager. After 6 years in big rivals SL Benfica, where he won 3 championships, 4 league cups, 1 Portugal Cup, 1 Supercup and 2 EL finals, a shock move during the pre-season from Sporting Portugal happened. Sporting got some players during the pre-season that will definitely be important players during the season, such as Aquilani, João Pereira and Bryan Ruiz. Other players such as Teofilo Gutierrez and Naldo will also play a role during this season. The objective is to be champion after 14 years of second and third places (and sometimes, even below!) Sporting already won the Supercup against SL Benfica (1-0), where they did a very dominant exhibition against big rivals. We had a few troubles in winning against CD Tondela's (2-1) defensive approach, but their goal was irregular and we just missed too much on the first half (we could have been winning 3-0 by the end of it, honestly). Saw CSKA against Spartak Moscow and they looked very dangerous on the counter. Musa and Doumbia are fast-paced and will definitely cause havoc should Sporting defense be unfocused for a while. Their defensive line is very experienced but seemed to lack pace, and Mário Fernandes leaves a lot of space behind when going up, and Sporting will definitely exploit that. I'm really surprised at the Overs here. 2.2 is just too much for two teams that care a lot about attack. Sure, CSKA has only conceded once in the Russian League but have conceded 4 goals against Sparta Prague, an average teams in CL standards and scored 5. Moreover, I rate Sporting Portugal highly defensively, Jorge Jesus really knows how to organize his teams defensively but it is a high-risk offside trap approach. I can see Musa and Doumbia having 1/2 chances of avoiding the offside trap and maybe scoring. We could definifely see overs here but I'm concerned that a 2-0 or 1-1 is very possible as well. But, if there is one team to score twice here, it is Sporting Portugal. While lacking finishing at certain times during a match, we are looking very impressive on attack and I expect them to hit the gas right at the start (João Mário, Sporting player at the press conference, hinted on that) and to score once or twice against a CSKA that does not look like the team of playing defensively ir order to give a big mental advantage. Even though if that does not happen, I expect Sporting to definitely score at least once during the match, and maybe twice... Therefore, Over 1.5 Sporting Portugal Team Goals @ 2.25 (William Hill) is a great odd and I would definitely give it a go if I could.
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Re: Copa America 2015 Football Form Labs are brilliant. Just read it and just got more convinced about my pick for Top Goalscorer. I don't agree with their view for the winner, maybe Chile could steal but Argentina is the main favourites and if their attack works out as it should, they'll be unplayable.
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Re: Copa America 2015 I staked a lot of money on Messi Top Goalscorer @ 4.33. May seem like no value at all, but at least for me there is. Coming on top form from club season, and probably on one of his best moments of his career, this Messi will surely be in the starting eleven ALWAYS, maybe won't play that much in first match because still tired from the CL match. While he reached the Argentina concentration for this competition, he expressed full commitment and looks motivated, while he said that Argentina are full-on favourites, and I agree with that as well. On the other hand, Aguero will surely play as well, but with Tevez and Higuain in the bench, there will probably be some rotation. And if one has to go out, is Aguero and not Messi. Messi does not look that tired, was incredible against Bilbao and Juventus and I'm sure he will appear on his best here. Tata Martino usually employs very offensive formations so Argentina could score a lot of goals here. Moreover, he is the penalty-taker and free-kick taker. Argentina also will have no trouble in getting first place and reaching the semis seems no hard task. Even if they lose in the semis they will always have the 3rd/4th position match which is always goal-friendly. Unless someone scores 4/5 goals in a match, I think Messi will be able to score at least 5 goals here.
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Re: French Open 2015 Over 3.5 in Nishikori x Bellucci @ 2.2 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake No doubt about Nishikori being a big player, and he is a dark horse for me. I think he could go all the way and reach the final. He has that big of a chance. However, and even though he is doing ok in Grand Slams, he usuallys struggles a bit in having 3-setters. He still is not that consistent along the sets and Paul Henri Mathieu could have stolen the second set against him. He had the clutch, but Mathieu was not in that big of a form. On the other hand, Bellucci had a terrific clay season and actually won the ATP Geneva before Roland Garros, where he won against a spirited João Sousa 76 64. I saw the match and Bellucci had a bit of trouble in clutch points but was terrific in return and also doing few errors. He also pushed Djokovic in Rome Masters to his limits and lost 1-2, delivering a good show. I expect the same from him tomorrow. He says he is very motivated, he has nothing to lose and actually looks in big shape and not tired. Matosevic was well disposed in first round and I predict that he can steal a set tomorrow against Nishikori, even though I think Nishikori will eventually win should it go to 4 or 5 sets.
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Re: AFC Champions League Tues 5th - Weds 6th May 2015 Was about to say that. If Goulart and Elkeson are on their days, even with Fabio as manager (well, he is simply rubbish), Evergrande are almost unbeatable here. Jeonbuk really surprised in the group phase. Even in the match where they lost 3-2 against Kashiwa and were losing 3-0 they did a brilliant second half. I rate them and Gamba Osaka as possible finalists here. Gamba Osaka is a japanese team and they always have trouble in the ACL but they are such a clutch team. Plus, Usami and Patric on their days are just unstoppable, just like Goulart and Elkeson
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Re: J-League 2015 Yokohama F Marinos x Nagoya Grampus Yokohama F Marinos is currently with 4 losses in their last 5 matches. They are in terrible shape are face a lot of trouble when facing teams of the same quality or higher quality. Erick Mombaerts is starting to be criticized among fans due to their defensive-minded approach. Yokohama have excellent attacking options in Rafinha, Ademilson, Ito and Saito but they just aren't able of scoring more and regularly. The fact of the most influential players of the team are still recovering from their injuries, Nakamura and Kurihara is definitely playing a role here. The team seems to be missing their captains and even though it is possible that they could play tomorrow, it is most likely that they will not play. On the other hand, Nagoya are in excellent form. Nishino's (Nagoya manager) is a very offensive minded manager and their teams play attractive football. The main problem is at the back, and Nagoya were known in last season for knowing how to score, but also for always conceding as well. The start of the season saw the same from them, but they have very consistent in defence lately. Forwards Nagai and Kawamata are very fast and skilled players that deliver a massive amount of damage to defensive lines while on their preferred counter-attacking approach. Moreover, Nagoya also have another excellent attacking options in Novakovic and Yano. And imagine if Leandro Domingues was available. I seriously can see them scoring in more than 90% of their official matches due to their offensive minded and effective approach. And actually, in 13 official matches so far, they only missed to score against Kofu away (0-1), and Kofu will play defensive minded approaches against third division teams if needed due to their lack of good options to fight for J-League 1... While we have a team that is in bad shape with a lot of trouble in scoring goals even with all the great players upfront and will probably play without influential players Nakamura and Kurihara, on the side we have a Nagoya Grampus which has corrected their defensive weaknesses and are just as good as they always were offensively with Nishino as manager. Nagoya Grampus counter-attacking approach is also one thing to point out here. Although they still have only won twice in 6 official matches while playing away, their approach works much better while playing away. Last season this was their playing style and they were the best J-League team playing away from home, with 35 points in 17 matches if I'm not mistaken. Although they already have 3 losses and only 1 win, 2 of these losses were expected (Urawa and Gamba) and I'm pretty sure we will see them getting even better results while playing away. Honestly can't see nothing but a draw or a Nagoya Grampus win, and given the current odds there is definite value in backing the 0.0 option on Unibet. Nagoya Grampus 0.0 @ 2.28 (Unibet) for a 0.60 stake
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Re: J-League 2015 finally! And from what I've heard, I was quite lucky.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2014/15 Haven't came here for a while, but SL Benfica x FC Porto today. Big clash as it could decide the championship. FC Porto lags behind SL Benfica by 3 points so they have to win it here tomorrow. But even winning might not be enough. Benfica won 2-0 the first match of the 13rd matchday in FC Porto. And even if FC Porto wins 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2, Benfica will stay in first place due to positive GD in both matches. FC Porto need to win 2-0, 3-1, 4-2 and so on. Therefore, it is to expect attacking football from FC Porto, and actually they are much better upfront than at the back. The same with Benfica as they have great players overall, but their defensive stability is not the best and against better teams they usually concede. Eliseu in the left is a big liability and I expect FC Porto to do 70% of their attacks on their right-wing. But while they will try to attack and to score, they will leave space behind for SL Benfica to exploit. Therefore, attacking football will be the only way for this match. I don't expect it to be tactic. Even if it is until the first goal, it will stop being tactic from the first goal. Also to point out that FC Porto come from an horrific result against Bayern Munchen, losing 1-6 at the Allianz Arena. However, I don't expect a crushed FC Porto. And coach Lopetegui has already warned that the team will give a very good response and I expect them to do it. Usually this FC Porto of Lopetegui delivers an excellent response after a bad result. Therefore, I have to fully recommend BTTS @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes) and 1.95 in some bookies. Big big value. FC Porto have to score to win it (of course, you can't win if you can't score) and they have the attacking weapons to do it, even without Tello. The fact that they have to score at least for me is enough to assume they will score. On the other hand, SL Benfica will have less pressure for this match and they also have incredibly good players upfront with Jonas, Gaitan and possibly Salvio if he recovers. Plus it is safe to assume they will score as they are scoring at home for the championship for 92 matches in row (!!!). FC Porto also look unstable in the back against powerful team upfront, and I expect them to concede at least once. Risky punters might try the Over 2.5 @ 2.3, but the BTTS is a good enough bet. Would price it 1.80 myself.
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Re: J-League 2015 Gamba Osaka + Over 2.5 @ 2.5 (bet365) for a 0.75 stake Let me get back on track with one bet that I find quite unavoidable not to bet on. Gamba Osaka are the current J-League champions and a very strong outfit. After a slow start, their offensive players are in a big moment of form, specially Usami, Abe and Patric. They outclassed a chinese team (which japanese teams usually have a lot of trouble) by 5-0 in the ACL and are on a row 6 consecutives wins, with 16 goals scored and only 4 conceded. They are reminding me of the form they had since July 2014 until the end of the last season. It is true that Albirex Niigata are a traditionally defensive team, but they have been leaking goals specially while playing as a visitor. The conceded at least once in all of their away matches in 2015, and in 4/5 away matches they conceded at least twice. Even though they are defensive, their defensive organization while playing as a visitor is not that good. And Sunday, they will be facing one of the best offensive teams of the league. I am frankly expecting a very strong Gamba Osaka, well motivated after their last victory and they are that kind of team that when they score once, they want to score more and more. However, they also look a bit more insecure at the back in comparison with last season and both Albirex brazilians Rafael Silva and Leo Silva could do some damage. I would say a goal from Niigata is possible, but I can't see anything more than Gamba scoring two, three, maybe even four goals here. Therefore, Gamba Osaka + Over 2.5 looks like a top bet for me. Let's just hope it does not end 2-0.
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Re: FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st
you tell me...reports from Germany are saying that he will definitely play. So confused now. But if he plays, Bayern should be on favourites pre-KO to qualify IMO.Wasn't he supposed to be back at the end of May? -
Re: FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st looks like Robben might play.
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Re: Real Madrid v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday April 22nd Tomorrow i will give better insights, but will be more of the same than 1st leg, and now pressure is all over Real. 1-1 for me here.
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Re: FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st Should be a very exciting match. Everyone not only from FC Porto but also from Portugal in general is pumped for this one. FC Porto players look fully motivated here and even more there that piece of Germany x Portugal all over again, because Germany usually always wins against Portugal. FC Porto has some very important injuries here. Jackson Martinez will play 100% sure, but Alex Sandro and Danilo (both starter wing-backs are suspended) and Julen Lopetegui will have to do some changes. It is expected that Bruno Martins Indi starts as a left-back, while Marcano and Maicon will be the centre-backs (the usual). As right-back, chances are midfielder Herrera could do the spot, but youngster Ricardo Pereira could also fill the spot. If Herrera is the chosen one, midfield will be Casemiro, Evandro and Oliver. Upfront will 90% be Brahimi, Jackson Martinez and Quaresma. Brahimi and Quaresma are fast-paced technically gifted players and Jackson Martinez is a panzer. Chances are Hernani could also start instead of Brahimi due to his superior speed but highly unlikely. If FC Porto joins in without no fear and wanting to score at least once, I can see them qualifying here for a shocker. They were awful until December but the team has grown so well. They are excellent in ball recovery (if Bayern is good, FC Porto isn't far behind) and defensive organization, plus their attacking flow is much better now. Bayern had a lot of trouble against fast paced FC Porto counters and intelligence in recovering the ball and even though I expect Bayern to be much better and focused tomorrow, they will still make mistakes because the pressure is all over them. Bayern with a lot of absences. Looks like Lahm and Bastian are fully recovered. Ribery will possibly be on the bench but reports indicate that he will not play at all unless it is needed for a last minute gasp. Reports also indicate that Guardiola will play this one on a 3-4-3 with one/two centre-backs so that means something. He has been testing this model for a while in the Bundesliga matches with mixed results, but attacking flow looks far superior than the usually 4-3-3 variants. However, their defensive cohesion gets worse and that could be a big trouble against such an intelligent side in attack as FC Porto. Still losing 1-3 after first leg and with all those injuries, Bayern is still Bayern. They have a very strong initial eleven and with the Bundesliga almost secured players will play the season here and give 120%. Expecting a very focused team, wanting to have > 75% possession and employing much direct play after the first 10 minutes, where they will want to have the ball and secure some emotional stability that lacked in the last match. Pretty sure Guardiola already knows how to bypass that first pressure line of FC Porto, but they will still make mistakes once in a while. And that is where FC Porto can shine! My bet for this one is Bayern + BTTS @ 3.00 for a 4/10 stake on some bookies. Honestly, I can't see anything else than a Bayern win, but that does not make them tie winners, because I can clearly see FC Porto scoring here and 2-1 is enough for the Portuguese side to go through. Even 3-1 gives us an overtime, but pressure will always be against Bayern there and a FC Porto means that they will need 2 to get ahead. FC Porto will be even more cautious than in the first leg but their counter-attacks will be very dangerous as always. Bayern will employ 3-4-3, will sometimes go all out attack and will leave their backline exposed to fierce counterattacking from FC Porto. Jackson Martinez and Quaresma are in big form and I can definitely see Porto scoring at least once. However, Bayern is still Bayern with all those injuries and even if FC Porto scores first I expect Bayern to score at least twice as their attacking flow will be gigantic during some specific moments. They also have the home factor, Champions League experience and FC Porto are without both starter wing-backs. Even with all the motivation and inspiration that I feel the Dragões will have tomorrow, it will still be tough not to lose. But that does not mean they will not qualify...and I hope they do. Let's go FC Porto!
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Re: FC Porto v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 15th Impressive from FC Porto. Their improvement during the season is outstanding. Players were fully focused and motivated to win this, while Bayern players were a bit complacent at the start. That made the difference. Big game from Jackson Martinez, what a striker. However, I still think Bayern will grab this in 2nd leg. Their stadium will be hell for FC Porto which will not have Tello and both wing-backs are suspended. Jose Angel and Ricardo Pereira are not from the same quality as Danilo (great game as well) and Alex Sandro.
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 14th If I did a pick, it would have ended 3-3 :spank
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Re: Juventus v AS Monaco > Tuesday April 14th Big misses for Juventus, would not be surprised of 0-0/1-0 scoreline.
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 14th Yes and actually Simeone's Atletico are phenomenal doing that. I'm pretty sure he will try the same as always: grab an early goal on a set piece or swift counter-attack with Griezmann looking to avoid the offside trap. If yes, perfect, 1-0 and pressure on Real. Or else, they will keep their fighting spirit and try to keep it 0-0. The most important thing in Simeone's mind is not to concede, I'm pretty sure of that.
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 14th Smells like 0-0 all over, or maybe 1-0 in a well studied set piece from Atletico. Wouldn't be surprised of Atletico playing for the 0-0, as it will only add pressure for Real in the 2nd leg.
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Re: FC Porto v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 15th Bayern Munchen with a lot of players out and FC Porto also without 2 of the most important players out, which are Jackson Martinez and Cristian Tello. However, one or two players are in big form such as Danilo (next Real Madrid player, excellent right-back) and Quaresma which is currently on a row of very impressive exhibitions. Usually not the guy who likes the unders, but I think they are at a very reasonable price. Still I could never bet on them as one of my golden rules. If I bet on unders, match will end overs :D But I really like the draw @ 3.85 and under 2.5 and draw @ 4.50. I think 0-0 and 1-1 are very possible results. As I mentioned before I expect a much more dull than exciting match, coaches know themselves well and should be able to counter-attack their best strengths and both teams are without their best attacking players.
Euro 2016 > Outright Betting
in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions
Posted · Edited by JuMeSyn
At first sight, England and Portugal are the best outsider bets. Also like France too, feel 4.5 reckons some value. They usually do not disappoint while playing at home.
Portugal will depend on how well Ronaldo is and if Fernando Santos does play the best players, especially the new youngsters that are showing up more now, such as Danilo, João Mário and Rafa.