four-leaf

First thing that comes up in my head is Espanyol to beat Barcelona 

Filip Krajinovic has withdrawn and Matteo Berrettini has takes his spot and at least one more player is out since Peter Polansky comes in as a lucky loser but I don't know who he replaced.

Cedric-Marcel Stebe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.50 with bet365
Gonna have a try on C-MS here. He retired in Doha first round after losing first set to Andrey Rublev and Max lost in the same event in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in qualifiying. None of these guys are big time hardcourt players especially not Max since all he's done is winning a few challengers on clay. I'll regret myself if I don't pick C-M to win if he wins and I didn't pick him so I have to take this bet. Head-to-head it's 1-0 C-MS after he won in straight sets on clay in challenger Sibiu in september last season. C-MS is underdog here because he retired in his last match in Doha and in Antwerp first round in october last season. I'll take my chances with C-MS and hope he is 100% otherwise he'll probably retire.

Bhambri vs. Baghdatis - Bhambri to win @2.10 with Bet365
The first bet I took on this forum lost, so hoping for better luck now. Bhambri has come through qualifying and is very used to the courts and heat which is a big factor in Melbourne. He's a great retriever and decent shot maker. He was former junior number 1 and now he's making his way back up after several injuries, talent level a top 50 in my opinion. He's a pretty cool, casual guy. Against him Grand Old Daddy, who's won a match in the exhibition but I don't count it much. He's very up and down in matches and I don't think can last 5 sets in his first match of the year. Towards the end of last year, his level of play had dropped appreciably and I can't see it getting any better. It may be a long match, but Yuki should prevail in the end.  

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight

2 PICKS FOR WTA AUSTRALIAN OPEN:
KERBER-FRIEDSAM 2:0 SETS @ 1.45 pinnacle
SVITOLINA-JOROVIC 2:0 SETS @ 1.3 pinnacle
expect two easy 1st round wins for the favorites who already showed some great form in 2018.

Cedric-Marcel Stebe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.50 with bet365
Gonna have a try on C-MS here. He retired in Doha first round after losing first set to Andrey Rublev and Max lost in the same event in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in qualifiying. None of these guys are big time hardcourt players especially not Max since all he's done is winning a few challengers on clay. I'll regret myself if I don't pick C-M to win if he wins and I didn't pick him so I have to take this bet. Head-to-head it's 1-0 C-MS after he won in straight sets on clay in challenger Sibiu in september last season. C-MS is underdog here because he retired in his last match in Doha and in Antwerp first round in october last season. I'll take my chances with C-MS and hope he is 100% otherwise he'll probably retire.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with Bet365
Going to follow you on that one, fully agree with what you've said. McDonald also played three tough sets yesterday, while Ymer just two easy ones, which could play a role if this goes to 4/5 sets.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with bet365
Finally Elias gets another chance to win a gs match after 4 previous main draw failures. He's been playing solid throughout the qualifiers and solid enough in Doha qualifiers only losing to in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas. Here's gonna be a another solid performance by Elias and this time he can finally win a gs match. Elias experience in best of 5 sets is superior to Mackies since he's only played one of those in his career losing in 5 sets to Jan Satral in USO first round 2016. Elias is the best swedish player so therefore he's been picked to represent sweden on a number of occasions in Davis cup and has played 4 times in gs main draw after he qualified 4 straight times in 2015. Elias should win this match if he plays as he's been doing since november.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with bet365
Finally Elias gets another chance to win a gs match after 4 previous main draw failures. He's been playing solid throughout the qualifiers and solid enough in Doha qualifiers only losing to in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas. Here's gonna be a another solid performance by Elias and this time he can finally win a gs match. Elias experience in best of 5 sets is superior to Mackies since he's only played one of those in his career losing in 5 sets to Jan Satral in USO first round 2016. Elias is the best swedish player so therefore he's been picked to represent sweden on a number of occasions in Davis cup and has played 4 times in gs main draw after he qualified 4 straight times in 2015. Elias should win this match if he plays as he's been doing since november.

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

Angelique Kerber to win Australian open at 15.00 with Betsson
Kerber is steamrolling right now and should do well in the first grand slam. She had an awful 2017 so she should be better this season if her form keeps rising like it has since the season started.

I have a small stake on a fourfold that goes like this...
Fabio Fognini to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80
Fabio can play really good when he wants to and he wants to play really good this week and when he does that he is the better player in this matchup.
Alex de Minaur to beat Benoit Paire at 1.90
Alex de Minaur continues to surprise until no one is surprised anymore. Anyway I got him totally wrong in his previous match. Feli Lopez had no answers at all. Alex beat Benoit last season in Sydney in 3 sets and now he is even more dangerous so I think Alex wins again. 
Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.00
David has nothing to collect here except his bags and ticket to Melbourne. He's played well in Auckland before David winning it 4 times but that doesn't count when J-M is on the other side of the net and he's won Auckland once and should do it a second time.
Angelique Kerber to beat (in 3 sets) Camila Giorgi at 4.00
Angie should have a hard time in this match since Cam is playing so good right now and just blows everyone off the court and she can blow Angie away to for a set at least but Angie should be able to win this matchup for a third time since it's 2-0 head to head with Angie winning in 3 sets last time they played.
Total odds: 27.49 with Paddypower

I have a small stake on a fourfold that goes like this...
Fabio Fognini to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80
Fabio can play really good when he wants to and he wants to play really good this week and when he does that he is the better player in this matchup.
Alex de Minaur to beat Benoit Paire at 1.90
Alex de Minaur continues to surprise until no one is surprised anymore. Anyway I got him totally wrong in his previous match. Feli Lopez had no answers at all. Alex beat Benoit last season in Sydney in 3 sets and now he is even more dangerous so I think Alex wins again. 
Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.00
David has nothing to collect here except his bags and ticket to Melbourne. He's played well in Auckland before David winning it 4 times but that doesn't count when J-M is on the other side of the net and he's won Auckland once and should do it a second time.
Angelique Kerber to beat (in 3 sets) Camila Giorgi at 4.00
Angie should have a hard time in this match since Cam is playing so good right now and just blows everyone off the court and she can blow Angie away to for a set at least but Angie should be able to win this matchup for a third time since it's 2-0 head to head with Angie winning in 3 sets last time they played.
Total odds: 27.49 with Paddypower

We all have our ups and downs and you did so well last week! Like CzechPunter said, chin up!  win or lose, we are (well, most people here) are thankful for your previews, insights, predictions and effort. Thank you and good luck with your bets in the coming weeks. 

Angelique Kerber to win Australian open at 15.00 with Betsson
Kerber is steamrolling right now and should do well in the first grand slam. She had an awful 2017 so she should be better this season if her form keeps rising like it has since the season started.

I wont have any bets now but I'll give some thoughts on some of the matches in Sydney, Hobart and Auckland, challenger Bangkok and Aussie open qualies.
Adrian Mannarino to beat Fabio Fognini
Adrian have a 2-0 lead on hard outdoor without dropping a set to Fabio, he's good enough to take it again.
Feli Lopez to beat Alex de Minaur
Feli is a top 50 player and cruised past Diego Schwartzman so he should win this since I don't consider Alex to be at top50 level yet.
J-M Del potro to beat Karen Khachanov
J-M in 3, Karen have to many issues to deal with here. For example he won't get that many chances to break serve. J-M have played well in Auckland before as he won the tournament in 2009.
Donna Vekic to beat Heather Watson
Donna is a small underdog here and I can't chew on that. She should be the favourite to win.
Elise Mertens to beat Monica Niculescu (rematch from last seasons Hobart final which Elise won)
Elise have had a good start this season and looks set to continue that way.
Alison Riske to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu
Alison is the better player on this particular surface and Mihaela is not experienced enough to win a match like this.
Angelique Kerber to beat Dominica Cibulkova
Angelique will keep on rolling. If she plays as she's done previously she will win this.
Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Yusuke Takahashi
18 year old Emil is on the rise. Has won the junior masters title in China and after that continued to win his first ITF pro title. He was ranked no.4 as a junior. Yusuke was only ranked 32 as a junior. Small underdog currently but it doesn't matter since I think Emil will win.
Irina Bara to beat Sesil Karatantcheva
I rate this as a 60/40 match and Irina as clearly the better player right now.
 

Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365
I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.
Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

John Millman to beat Gilles Muller at 1.72 with bet365
Gilles hasn't been playing good tennis since Wimbledon. John has been playing good tennis since US open and that I saw last week in Brisbane when he took a set in his match v Grigor Dimitrov and crushed Peter Polansky in round 1. Now he's received a wild card for Sydney and it seems as he will make it count. Gilles is the defending champ in Sydney. To start the season he lost to Hyeon Chung in straight sets and if he's not playing well he will have problems against a motivated aussie.

@four-leaf Yes, actually, I think that you've missed the fact that Vondrousova is a potential GS winner, she really is one of the most talented youngsters on the tour at the moment. I'm really not sure that she's that overrated, but the fact that she's so young does mean that she's going to lose matches that she should be winning etc. The odds look fine to me, not sure that there's value on Vekic, but I'll be cheering for her, as I have a pre-season pick on her to do well in 2018. She can definitely win and she's only a small underdog, but that's what the odds are suggesting as well, so there you go. Vekic can out-hit her, but Vondrousova should win most longer rallies, hard to say what's going to happen, it's not as clear-cut as the Flipkens-Pliskova match-up was, for example.

Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365
I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.
Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

Barcelona v Levante; 16:15
Barcelona will miss defender Umtiti, suspended midfielder Busquets, injured Turan and forwards Paco and Deulofeu.
Levante will miss defender Chema, midfielders Morales, Bardhi, and Campaña and forwards Alegria and Marti.
Short preview: as you can see Levante is coming in Barcelona without three important midfielders and regular defender, so on first hand, we could say that their level of creativity will be pretty low, but knowing Levante, the main problem will be that they cannot count on three important players in line whose primary goal was to create a decent block and help defensive line behind them. They conceded only a goal in last three away matches and I expect them to come on Camp Nou with a totally defensive-oriented team. Barcelona will miss suspended Busquets which probably means that buildup will be slower, but Rakitić played solid on this position last time. Anyway, I expect Levante to drop really deep and if Barcelona won't score some silly goals, I think that this match will stay under 4 goals. I've been looking at Barcelona win with clean sheet, but odds are pretty low (1,70) so I suggest under 4,5 at 1,85.

Elise Mertens to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 1.57 with BetVictor
2-2 today, with the doubles bets both losing in TBs/STBs, which is kinda unlucky. There probably was something wrong with Fognini, but Lorenzi/Zverev had a mini-break in their TB and didn't convert, which is a shame. Anyway, I don't see all that much for tomorrow, but I will go for this one. Elise Mertens is defending the title in Hobart and, judging from her current form, she could definitely go for. She was brilliant during both the Hopman Cup and her match against Nara, so I have her as a big favourite against Haddad Maia, who doesn't have any weapons that she could use to beat attacking players that are in the zone. Unless Mertens misfires, this will be hers.

Petra Kvitova - Mirjana Lucic Baroni (+4,5 games) 2 with Betway @2,20
I read an interview with Mirjana Lucic a couple of weeks ago in Croatian papers where she said that she never felt so good at the beginning of the season both physically and mentally.Last week in Brisbane she beat Maria and the lost to Cornet but I think these two matches were just some kind of additional preparation for competitive tennis in the following weeks.She loves to play "Down Under" and will probably do her best to repeat last season`s record at AO.
This is going to be the first match of the season for Kvitova after she retired from the tournament in Brisbane due to a virus (I read that on her twitter page).We all know how good Kvitova can be but taking all the facts into consideration I don`t think this will be a walk in the park for her.I expect Lucic to cover this handicap and I won`t call it a miracle if she takes a set or even wins.
 

ITF USA F1
Christopher Eubanks to beat Karue Sell at 1.61 with bet365
The 21 year old Christopher has been serving really well this week. I backed him against Guillermo Olaso and Alex Sarkissian and now he comes up against the 24 year old brazilian world number 691 and he's ranked 347 himself with only a season as a pro. We will probably see Christopher rise a lot in the rankings this season if he continues the way he's been doing this week. He comes from Atlanta and at home in Atlanta last season he upset Taylor Fritz and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters where he lost to Ryan Harrison who came up short in the final against John Isner. Christopher is 2.01cm tall and serves naturally pretty well not leaving many breakpoints to his opponents and he's been doing just that this week. He did well yesterday by beating Kaichi Uchida who is ranked 351 and Kaichi who served very good only droped serve once in the match at the end of third set which cost him the match. Christopher is a player you don't get many chances to get back against if you get broken and Karue is ranked over 300 places lower in the rankings so I think the Atlanta native should win this in at least 7/10 times on hardcourt in the US. Only a small warning should be issued about Karue who is yet to drop a set this week but Christoper is something entirely different to come up against compared to what he's faced this week. The american to win unless he gets outplayed to mutch in the rallies but I honestly can't see that happening in his own serve so as long as he serves as good as in previous matches this week he should win.