Snoopdog

A absolute massive loss to the sport most of us love sleep tight and God bless

A very sad day indeed.

The greatest supporter of our wonderful sport. RIP Your Majesty, ?

I too am looking forward to2022 NFL.
My lad usually comes around on Sunday mights and we have a few drinks and a takeaway while watching RedZone.
I've got a new system worked out, so ready to test it, but I need a few weeks of results before I can kick it into action.
B365 already have Week 1 spreads up.

I too am looking forward to2022 NFL.
My lad usually comes around on Sunday mights and we have a few drinks and a takeaway while watching RedZone.
I've got a new system worked out, so ready to test it, but I need a few weeks of results before I can kick it into action.
B365 already have Week 1 spreads up.

That's a stark difference in P/L given such a similar strike rate! Did you play a lot of shorter odds selections last year? Also a lot more bets I notice (not sure if you placed less bets the previous year or just posted less). Possibly an argument for being more selective and seeing if you can weed out anything that didn't work last season that you did less of the year before, if that's possible from looking back over your records.
I've just looked back over my player data from last year. If you'd sold every player's TD minutes you'd have made a profit of 1183 points from 818 bets (1.45 points per bet). Setting a minimum sell price of 16 reduces it to 322 bets returning 930 points (2.89 points per bet). Buyers would have lost 2842 points in total and 1502 points at 16+. I suspect this is a market that would see more buyers than sellers so the price will be skewed such as it's hard to find a value buy but considerably easier to find a value sell. Blindly selling might prove profitable but you'd have to take some big losses along the way. Not an avenue I'll be exploring this year.
From a fixed odds perspective I didn't find this market as "easy" to predict as the anytime goalscorer market in "soccer". Backing at my target back odds ("true" plus edge) would have been loss making. Laying was a potentially profitable avenue but experience suggests it's a lot of hard work trying to get matched and usually not worth the effort. There was a small profit to be had by backing every odds on selection at the best available bookies price so that might be an area to focus on; seeing if you can better odds on the exchange. For my interest angle this season I may try backing a few shorties every week.

Is anybody out there excited by the NFL? I can't wait for the season to start. 
A winning record ATS (against the spread) in 2020/21 was negated by a loss in 2021/22.
So I looking for a successful 2022/23.
Records 
2020/21 W37 D4 L34 profit +217 points - Win record 52.1%
2021/22 W84 D1 L75 loss -141 points - Win Record 52.8%
Combined W121 D5 L109 Profit +76 points - Win Record 52.6% 

If you must do a multiple, here's my approach:
1. Nothing more than doubles
2. Use for bets between about 1/2 and EV
This approach keeps the number of bets down, and it's hard enough getting 2 winners.
NB: A pair of 1/2 chances in a double pays 5/4.   A pait of evens chances in a double pays 3/1.

If you must do a multiple, here's my approach:
1. Nothing more than doubles
2. Use for bets between about 1/2 and EV
This approach keeps the number of bets down, and it's hard enough getting 2 winners.
NB: A pair of 1/2 chances in a double pays 5/4.   A pait of evens chances in a double pays 3/1.

If you must do a multiple, here's my approach:
1. Nothing more than doubles
2. Use for bets between about 1/2 and EV
This approach keeps the number of bets down, and it's hard enough getting 2 winners.
NB: A pair of 1/2 chances in a double pays 5/4.   A pait of evens chances in a double pays 3/1.

Oh dear , another Gold Cup Lost by poor jockey ship by Dettori , great with 2/3 rides on a card , 6/7 way too much for the ol' man  

Ascot 2.30 Eighteen two year old fillies assemble for the opener on day four of the Royal meeting for the group 3 Albany Stakes run over 6F. I have a strong fancy here in the Saeed Bun Suroor trained Mawj who looked special when blitzing her rivals on her debut at Newmarket last month under today’s rider Ray Dawson. The runner up Believing has won since boosting the form and actually re-opposes here today. The biggest danger may well be the Aidan O’Brien runner Mediate who’s already won in group company at Naas last month. The finish can be fought out by these two promising fillies. Third favourite is Queen Olly who looked good when winning on her debut at York and should be thereabouts but for me this is all about the daughter of Exceed And Excel who will bounce off of this ground and reports of a spectacular gallop recently can be heeded here.   MAWJ 3 points win 10/3 BetVictor   Ascot 3.05 A wide open group 1 Commonwealth Cup is next up. Run over 6F the race is for three year olds only. Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power is dropping back to sprint distances having failed to last out the mile in the 2000 guineas finishing 7th beaten just over 6L. That form looks good now with the 1st and 2nd winning group ones since. He has to be a player here. El Caballo has also to be on the shortlist having won his last six races including the group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes when just out battling rival Flaming Rib. I’m interested in the horse who finished fourth that day beaten 2 3/4L, the David Loughnane trained Go Bears Go. He stumbled at the start there and was always playing catch up afterwards. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts here and just going down by a head to Perfect Power in last years Norfolk Stakes. Fast ground suits and he looks the each way value here to me in a tough contest.   GO BEARS GO 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.40 The class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap is run over 12F and has attracted a maximum field of 19. I have a strong fancy here in the shape of the favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Just Fine who is owned by The Queen and by all accounts has been trained for this contest. He was a real eye catcher on his re-appearance when a running on third to the useful Gaassee in a valuable York handicap where he was slowly out of the stalls. Sure to have tightened up for that run and with Ryan Moore on top he can take this from stall 7. John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman won well on his re-appearance and is up 5lb and holds some fancy future entries whilst the Irish raider Mashoor is another to bear in mind. The best of the outsiders may well be the bottom weight of Kim Bailey’s in Ajero, who’s better known as a decent hurdler. This is his handicap debut and a mark of 89 looks lenient to me. I’ll have a small ew saver on him with the additional places but my main bet has to be Just Fine for The Queen.   JUST FINE 3 points win 4/1 William Hill AJERO 1/2 point each way 25/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345   Ascot 4.20 The one mile group one Coronation Stakes is run on the round course and is for three year old fillies. The best in on official ratings is the John and Thady Gosden trained Inspiral who was unbeaten as a two year old but has had his issues missing the 1000 guineas and is worth opposing here on her seasonal re-appearance. America send over two fillies who will love the fast ground in Spendarella and Pizza Blanca but it’s hard to put a handle on their form and I’m looking at opposing the pair. Also worth being against is the French runner Mangoustine who won the French 1000 guineas last time by a head from the re-opposing Cachet. She’s smart but the problem with her is that she’s yet to race on ground as fast as this. Looking back to our 1000 guineas Cachet had four of her rivals today behind her with the Ralph Beckett trained Prosperous Voyage the closest going down by a neck and the pair of them can be thereabouts today. Back in 7th that day was the Jessie Harrington trained Discoveries beaten 5L. It was a disappointing run from her but Harrington’s horses were out of form at the time and it’s maybe worth giving another chance to her on ground she will love.   DISCOVERIES 1 point each way 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Ascot 5.00 A bumper field of 29 three year old fillies go to post for the one mile Sandringham Handicap Stakes run on the straight course. Richard Hannon’s Heredia did really well to win at York last time over 7F when slowly away and finding trouble in running but eventually getting out and flying home to win by a head from Espresso who re-opposes here today on 2lb better terms. She’s been raised 7lb and with this race mooted by her trainer afterwards looks likely to be very competitive. I can’t understand the discrepancy between her and Espresso mind, who although having had the run of the race really shouldn’t be four times the price of Heredia. David O’Meara has had a good week and his handicap debutant Love Interest makes some appeal at a big price. She’s bumped into some smart sorts in her short career and can also run well along with Archie Watson’s Pink Carnation who’s also making her handicap debut here. A tough race with Heredia the main bet with a couple of small each way savers in Espresso and Love Interest.   HEREDIA 2 points each way 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234567 ESPRESSO 1/2 point each way 28/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456 LOVE INTEREST 1/2 point each way 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Ascot 5.35 A disappointing turnout for the group 2 King Edward VII Stakes run over 12F with just six going to post. The Epsom Derby form is represented here by Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who ran 5th beaten 9 1/4L. The 7th in the race Nahaani hardly franked the form with a disappointing effort on Wednesday in the Queens Prize and I’ll take the Charlie Appleby trained Ottoman Fleet to take this. Only lightly raced the son of Sea The Stars followed up his unlucky second at Newbury when taking a listed race at Newmarket in May. He looks to have bags of potential and to me looks the likeliest winner here. Savvy Victory was only 1 3/4L behind the selection at Newmarket and looks held whilst Lysander has a progressive profile and should run well.   OTTOMAN FLEET 2 points win 9/4 William Hill   Ascot 6.10 A real brain teaser to finish with today. A maximum field of 28 go to post for the 5F Palace Of Holyroadhouse Handicap for three year olds only. The weights are headed by the Wesley Ward trained Ruthin who went off favourite for the Windsor Castle last season when only 7th behind Chipotle. Korker represents the in form Karl Burke stable who is up 9lb for a cosy York handicap victory last time out. That pair both have decent claims. Irish raider Ladies Church trained by Johnny Murtagh has some smart sprinting form to his name and can take a hand in the finish in his first handicap. Sterling Knight is chasing a hat trick though is 12lb higher than when starting his winning spree and the drop back a furlong may not be a bonus. A real hard handicap where stakes should be kept small and I’ll go with Ladies Church each way.   LADIES CHURCH 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456    

Ascot 2.30
We start Royal Ascot with the group one Queen Anne Stakes where William Haggas’s superstar Baaeed has an easy task to take his unbeaten run to eight from eight. He really does look the real deal and I can see him going off a 1/6 chance or even shorter. His recent win at Newbury in the Lockinge has him way ahead of Real World (beaten 3 1/4L), Chindit (5L) and Sir Busker (6 1/4L) and he should have a comfortable victory here under regular rider Jim Crowley. Sit back and enjoy.
 
Ascot 3.05
Seventeen colts go to post for this year’s renewal of the group 2 Coventry Stakes and with the 11th hour defection of Noble Style has the Adrian O’Brien unbeaten Blackbeard and Richard Hannon’s similarly unbeaten Persian Force battling it out for favouritism. Preference of the pair is the latter who has looked a smart prospect winning the Brocklesby at Doncaster and a small field at Newbury. His trainer Richard Hannon has gone in print saying he is comparable to the smart Canford Cliffs whom he trained. He’s the main bet here although one horse who impressed me immensely on his racecourse debut was the Archie Watson trained Bradsell who bolted up at Yorkmon his debut under PJ McDonald who’s replaced today by Hollie Doyle. He is by all accounts held in very high esteem by his trainer and I’ll be backing him each way along with Persian Force.
 
PERSIAN FORCE 2 points win 3/1 William Hill
BRADSELL 1 point each way 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 3.40
A decent sized field of 18 go to post for the group 1 Kings Stand Stakes which has a very international look about it this year with Australian, American, Irish and even a Czech runner alongside the usual British contingent. The top rated here is Australian superstar Nature Strip who has plenty of experience as a seven year old in his native country having won eight group ones. This will be his first run outside of Australia although his work according to his trainer Chris Waller has all gone well having been housed at Charlie Hills’ stable in Lambourn. Drawn 10 gives him options and is a fascinating runner. The market suggests that the American trained Golden Pal will be a big threat. A very fast horse who his trainer Wesley Ward has been talking up in the last week has actually been beaten twice in his ventures to this country and I would favour Aussie Nature Strip who is the main bet. Obviously with the travel involved there is the possibility that both the front two could bomb out and at around 8/11 the pair I will all also be playing one of the others small each way. Tim Easterby’s Winter Power totally blew out on his re-appearance at Haydock behind two of today’s rivals in Kings Lynn and Twilight Calls. He was very easy to back that day and let’s not forget he was a group one winner last season and has to be better than that last run so looks each way value with the extra place.
 
NATURE STRIP 2 points win 5/2 bet365
WINTER POWER 1/2 point each way 20/1 Coral/Ladbroke 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 4.20
The group 1 St James Palace Stakes is next up. Run over a mile it’s for three year old colts and has attracted a field of 13. Warm favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Coroebus who had plenty of these behind him when winning the 2000 Guineas. He’s yet to race around a bend although his trainer feels that may actually suit him and he’s fared well with the draw in stall 2. He’s hard to oppose with William Buick in the saddle. William Haggas saddles a brace in his German 2000 Guineas winner Maljoom and Heron Stakes winner My Prospero with preference for the latter. It will be a shock to me if Coroebus can’t win again.
 
Ascot 5.00
A true stamina test with the 2m 4F Ascot Stakes Handicap featuring twenty potential stayers. The two favourites are trained by trainers more associated with Cheltenham than Royal Ascot with Willie Mullin’s Bring On The Night and Gordon Elliott’s Pied Piper. Preference is for the latter who has turned into a smart hurdler since joint Elliott from John Gosden. He’s rated 145 over sticks but only 96 today so may have a bit in hand although like Bring On The Night has to truly prove he stays this stamina sapping trip and with the pair around the 7/4 mark coupled it’s maybe worth looking elsewhere for some each way value especially with the extra places. Another hurdler at a much bigger price who looks well handicapped is Paul Nicholls’ Scaramanga the mount of Hollie Doyle. He has claims but it’s yet another hurdler that catches my eye in the John Queally trained eight year old gelding Arcadian Sunrise. He will stay this trip and there were excuses for his latest credible 4th in the Chester Cup (took a keen hold on his first start for 187 days and may not have been at home on the tight track). At the prices I’ll play him each way with the icing on the cake being the booking of useful 5lb claimer Harry Davies.
 
ARCADIAN SUNRISE 1 point each way 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 5.35
A competitive renewal of the listed Wolverton Stakes run over 10F for four year olds and upwards. Last years winner Juan Elcano is back to defend his crown and has definite claims. Bar outsiders Moving Time and Palavechino there is actually only four pound between the other fourteen runners. Plenty hold chances but the one I like is the Andrew Balding trained Foxes Tales although I must admit the widest draw in 16 is a bit of a concern. A Group 3 winner last season at Haydock he misses a penalty for this contest by a couple of week. He’s run well on both outings this season in group 3 company including last time out when 4th to Ilaraab at Newbury with the horse that finished just ahead of him Without A Fight winning well at the weekend. It’s a tough race with bets best kept to a minimum.
 
FOXES TALES 1 point each way 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 6.10
A maximum field of sixteen go to post for this 1m 6F Copper Horse Handicap, a class 2 handicap for four year olds and upwards. Red hot favourite and sure to be thereabouts at the finish is the Aiden O’Brien trained Cleveland who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. He came from the back to take the half mile further Chester Cup last time and has been raised 5lb for that victory. He’s yet to encounter ground this fast but is the one to beat. The ground may well ride too fast for the likes of Not So Sleepy and Get Shirty. The Gosden’s run an interesting runner here in Stowell who is making his handicap debut under Frankie Dettori and can be competitive. Charlie Appleby saddles Bandinelli in first time blinkers but he ran so bad last time it’s hard to be too confident about him. A tough handicap but they all have to beat Cleveland who has a touch of class about him and a 5lb rise may not be enough to stop him winning again despite his cramped odds.
 
CLEVELAND 2 points win 3/1 bet365
 

I was able to watch it for free on YouTube from 2pm. Simply do a YouTube search for "LIV GOLF" and it's the first hit.
 Picture quality is a bit soft, but decent. Also a couple of freezes lasting a couple of seconds every hour or so. I'm watching YouTube through my VirginMedia V6 box. I don't know if it gets the youTube video from my router (at the far end of the house) or the cable company's head end.
I tend to agree with Rory that these start-up competitors may not make it - think Kerry Packer cricket.

Epsom 2.00 A decent sized field for the start of the two day Derby meeting with a dozen two year olds going to post for the Woodcote Stakes run over 6F. It can be an advantage to be drawn on the rail and two of the more fancied runners have been drawn out wide in starting stalls 11 and 12. That’s Andrew Balding’s Estate and David Loughnane’s Commander Straker who actually met at Bath last time and on 5lb better terms the former may turn the tables on Commander Straker having been beaten only a length and a half although as previously stated the draw is not ideal. Mick Channon’s Legend Of Xanadu and Eve Johnson Houghton’s Blatant are speedy types who can run well but my fancy is the Ralph Beckett trained Keep Bidding who’s well berthed in stall 4 and ran a race full of plenty of promise on her debut at Nottingham when an unfancied 28/1 chance chasing home a well touted Michael Bell newcomer. She stayed on well under hand riding and will love the extra furlong today. Beckett has his horses in decent form and I expect a decent run from her here.   KEEP BIDDING 1 point each way @ 13/2 Bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 2.35 A highly competitive sixteen runner 1m 113 yds class 2 handicap is up next. Archie Watson’s Excel Power heads the weights having won both his starts this season and despite a 6lb rise for his latest win has claims with Hollie Doyle in the saddle. It’ll be hard to win this from a high draw and for that reason alone I’m against last years winner Corazon Espinado (although he would be very much on my short list if drawn in single figures), Variyann and Oh This Is Us. Andrew Balding’s Carolus Magnus looks a player with his latest second at Newmarket boosted by the subsequent wins of the third that day. George Boughey’s Totally Charming has the assistance of William Buick and will no doubt be popular although he has to prove he’s as good on turf as he is on the all weather where his record is 3 from 5 but 0 from 2 on the turf. I’m going to take a swing at a big price one here in bottom weight Larado. Trained by Mick Appleby he made all to win over course and distance last September by a comfortable 6L and although he’s shown little in two starts this season there may have been excuses. With the front runners all drawn high Larado may steel a march on his rivals from stall 2 and under Ciaran Fallon lead them all a merry dance. He’ll be a big price so shop around and look out for those extra places.   LARADO 1 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Epsom 3.10 A small but select field of six assemble for this year’s renewal of the Group 1 Coronation Cup run over the Derby trip of 1m 4F. The best in today is last year’s winner Pyledriver who comes here on the back of a credible 4th in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March (Hukum 3/4L behind him that day). With Martin Dwyer missing Frankie Dettori takes over and he looks sure to go close as the only runner in the field to have any experience of this unique track. Aiden O’Brien has supplemented High Definition after his excellent effort when just going down to Alenquer in the 10F Tattersall Gold Cup at The Curragh 12 days ago and although rated just a pound behind Pyledriver he hasn’t won since his two year old days some seven runs ago. The horse who’s hard to put a handle on is the Charlie Appleby trained Manobo who’s been running over further although his trainer has always been of the opinion that he has plenty of speed. On official ratings he has 7lb to find and will surely attempt to force the pace. I’ll take Dettori and Pyledriver to arrive late and fast and take the spoils.   PYLEDRIVER 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   Epsom 3.45 A decent sized field of fourteen go to post for this class 2 10F handicap with the likely favourite the improving Moktasaab who is owned by Harry Redknapp. He’s chasing a hat trick of wins this year following victories for William Knight at Newbury and Goodwood. He’s a player here but has risen 12lb for those two success’s and this looks a deep contest. David Menuisier trains course specialist Soto Sizzler who’s track figure here read 11221 and although racing off of a career high handicap mark today looks likely to play a part in the finish with Ryan Moore in the saddle. I’ll take him with one other against the field. My other fancy is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Love Is Golden who got no sort of run when third to the aforementioned Soto Sizzler over course and distance at the Spring meeting here finishing off third beaten 5 1/4L but is now 6lb better off. He’s run well in two decent handicaps since and I’ll take him and Soto Sizzler each way against the field.   SOTO SIZZLER 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234 LOVE IS GOLDEN 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 4.30 The 12F Cazoo Oaks is the third classic of the season and we have 11 three year old fillies going to post this year. John and Thady Gosden appear to hold the key here with the front two in the betting in Emily Upjohn, an impressive winner of a Sandown maiden and the Musidora at York and Nashwa who’s looked equally as impressive in winning at Haydock and Newbury this season. She’s yet to race beyond 10F and there’s maybe a slight doubt about her getting this longer trip today. Ideally she wouldn’t want to see any more rain. Emily Upjohn looks smart and should relish the step up 1 1/2F from York today. She was a bit keen early last time and if there is a reason to be against her that may well be it although she certainly has the wow factor especially with Frankie on board. Aiden O’Brien has four in the contest - the hard to fancy The Algarve (9 1/4L behind Emily Upjohn at York), Cheshire Oaks winner Thoughts Of June (runner up won a Group 1 in France since) and the 2nd and 3rd from the Irish 1000 Guineas from 12 days ago in Tuesday and Concert Hall. Both are stepping up in trip and with Ryan Moore presumably choosing Tuesday she maybe the best of the Ballydoyle quartet. Charlie Appleby’s representative With The Moonlight shouldn’t be dismissed as she was very impressive when winning the Pretty Polly at Newmarket on her re-appearance. She looks a different horse to last year and if gallop rumours are correct has come forward again since her trial. It’s a tough race and on a matter of value I’ll play the Godolphin filly each way (if possible look at the firms paying 4 places instead of 3)with a win bet on the favourite who’s the most likely winner.   WITH THE MOONLIGHT 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 EMILY UPJOHN 2 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

Haydock 1.45 This 5F listed contest revolves around the Roger Varian trained favourite Dragon Symbol who Varian acquired from Archie Watson and is officially rated the best horse here by 7lb but was disappointing on his first start for Varian at York only 17 days ago. He may well win this but at around the 2/1 mark looks poor value to my eyes and I’m happy enough to take him on with Raasel each way. The Horse Watchers consistent five year old gelding is stepping up into listed company for the first time but a mark of 101 puts him in the mix here if the favourite under performs again. James Doyle knows him well having ridden him to success on three of the four times he’s won for the Mick Appleby stable and after just 13 runs he could even still be improving.   RAASEL 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Beverley 2.05 The 5F Hilary Needler conditions stakes is for two year old fillies and has attracted a field of nine this year. The warm favourite is likely to be the David Loughnane trained Absolutelyflawless who will be ridden by William Buick. She has a big chance although her wins have come on the all weather and good to soft ground at Chester so has to prove herself on fast ground. Star Of Lady M may not have enjoyed the twists and turns of Chester when 4 1/2L behind Absolutelyflawless last time and can get closer today whilst an interesting runner is the Richard Hannon trained Distinguished Lady who races in the Amo Racing silks. She finished a 7 3/4L third at Newbury on her debut to a smart sort in Mawj with the runner up that day winning since. I’ll be keeping stakes small by think the most likeliest winner is Absolutelyflawless.   ABSOLUTELYFLAWLESS 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill   Haydock 2.20 A competitive class 2 1m 4F handicap is up next with only a few of the thirteen participants in with a chance in my opinion. The most interesting runner is Mahrajaan from the very much in form William Haggas stable. He’s not been seen for 232 days though fitness could easily be an issue here. That will be no problem for David & Nicola Barron’s Contact, a winner of a valuable 1m 4F Newmarket handicap in April and 5lb higher in the weights now. The horse that stands out to me is bottom weight Forza Orta who ran Mahrajaan’s stable companion Gaassee to a length at York last time out. A 3lb rise may not stop Kevin Ryan’s progressive four year old going one better here and he’s a strong fancy.   FORZA ORTA 3 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   Beverley 2.40 A nine runner class 3 handicap that features one of the best bets of the day. Tim Easterby has brought his six year old Ugo Gregory around steadily this season and looks ready to win now. He adores this track having won three of his six starts here with his latest course and distance success coming off of the same handicap mark as todays last September (he followed up at York off of a 2lb higher mark the following month). He’s had three runs to get him fit and hopefully ready for today’s contest dropping 6lb and with Duran Fentiman in the saddle. The only negative against him is if the ground was to get rattling fast as he does prefer good ground. Top weight Percy’s Lad is chasing a hat trick following wins at Yarmouth and Nottingham this spring but has risen 11lb for that brace of victories. Wobwobwob is back at his favoured trip of 7F and maybe a bigger threat but for me this is all about Ugo Gregory.   UGO GREGORY 3 points win @ 4/1 William Hill   Haydock 2.55 Ten fillies or mares go to post for the Group 3 Pinnacle Stakes run over 1m 4F of the Lancashire track. The best in at these weights is the Irish challenger Climate trained by Jessie Harrington who ran her best ever run when 4th in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last time out. Both Darlectable You and Lady Hayes are in foal to Frankel and hold place chances but the one I like here is Sea La Rosa from the unstoppable William Haggas stable who’s currently operating at a 38% wins to runs ratio. She hasn’t been seen since winning a listed race on the all weather at Lingfield last October but won first time out last season and can take this step up in grade in her stride with Tom Marquand doing the steering.   SEA LA ROSA 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365   Beverley 3.15 Another two year old sprint at the Yorkshire track, this time for colts and geldings over 5F. Warm favourite is likely to be Whistle And Flute who will be hard to beat on the form book. Eve Johnson Houghton’s Dandy Man colt followed up his Bath victory with a credible 2nd to Andrew Balding newcomer Bakeel at Ascot with the horse 3L back in third winning since. That should be good enough to win this. The horse I fear most is the Andrew Balding runner Chateau who was an eye catcher on his debut at Salisbury when third to Remarkable Force who’s won since at Musselburgh. Jm Jungle has also had his Hamilton maiden win franked by the runner up going in again since whilst Rogue Spirit was a course and distance winner on his debut but has surprisingly been gelded since. The value may lie with Chateau here at a bigger price than Whistle And Flute.   CHATEAU 2 points win @ 9/2 William Hill   Haydock 3.30 The John Of Gaunt Stakes is a group 3 contest run over 7F for four year olds and upwards and has attracted a small but select field of eight this year. The best in at the weights is Ralph Beckett’s Kinross who actually won this contest by a comfortable length and a quarter last year and is back to defend his title. He loves to get his toe in and unless the ground dried up dramatically is the one to beat here on his seasonal re-appearance (he won this last year on the back of a 107 day break). There’s actually only 7lb between the whole field and bar the rag Catch Twentytwo a case can be made for all here. Andrew Balding’s Happy Power won well last time at Leicester but this represents a further step up in grade whilst the Gosden’s Sunray Major steps down in class having contested the group one Lockinge Stakes last time. He prefers fast ground however so any cut in the ground may not be ideal. As long as there’s sufficient ease in the ground I’ll take Kinross to win this contest for the second consecutive year.   KINROSS 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill (no bet on good to firm)   Chester 3.45 As with all races here over 5-7F the draw is vitally important and this eleven runner class 2 7F 127 yards handicap is no different. Last years winner Boardman, trained by Tim Easterby is back to defend his title off of a 5lb higher mark and a favourable draw in stall 2 and has a terrific chance. Local trainer Hugo Palmer’s representative Fools Rush In finished just ahead of Boardman here earlier in the month and although 3lb better off may struggle to confirm the form as Boardman had a nightmare run that day. He’s the main bet but I can’t resist a small each way saver on Richard Hannon’s 9 year old Oh This Is Us who has also fared well with the draw in trap 3. Only a length behind Boardman earlier in the season at Haydock he’s 6lb better off now and has track figures of 11213. He can push Boardman all the way.   BOARDMAN 2 points win 5/2 William Hill OH THIS IS US 1 point each way 13/2 Coral 1/5th 123

Stormed it easy

York 1.50
Eleven middle distance handicappers go to post for this 12F Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap where the winner gets a free entry into the sponsors Ebor Handicap here in August. Top weight Global Storm is one of just two in the field who hold future group entries and comes here fit from a short but successful stint this winter in Dubai for the top team of Charlie Appleby and 7lb apprentice Harry Davies who looks such good value for his claim. He looks sure to go well although I have slight preference for the other future group entered horse in Gaassee trained at Newmarket by William Haggas who loves to have a winner on the Knavesmire being a Yorkshireman himself. He comes here having won a novice stakes at Chester on soft ground by 15L and all weather events at Newcastle and Kempton when heavily supported and going off odds on. His mark of 94 may still be lenient when you consider that Haggas felt fit to enter this Sea The Stars horse in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes last week. There are some other interesting handicappers in opposition here including Sir Michael Stoute’s Just Fine and Ralph Beckett’s Sam Cooke who are both making their seasonal debuts. I’m all over Gaassee here though and he’s a good bet.
 
GAASSEE 3 points win @ 9/4 William Hill
 
York 2.25
A typical maximum field of 22 for this 6F sprint handicap where stakes are advised to be kept small. It looks a wide open affair with several holding claims. Last years winner Mr Lupton is back to defend his title from a handicap mark 3lb lower this time around although last year he had already had a couple of runs where as this year it’s his seasonal debut. David O’Meara’s Nomadic Empire showed up well on his seasonal re-appearance when third at Ripon and should be thereabouts whilst course specialists Dakota Gold and Mr Wagyu have claims. Especially the latter who hails from the very much in form John Quinn yard and will be ridden by stable number one Jason Hart. His course figures read 171246 and has already had a run to prep him for this race when 8th to Blackrod in a valuable 6F Newmarket handicap eleven days ago. The handicapper actually dropped him a pound for that run and I expect a big run from stall 9.
 
MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5th 123456
 
York 3.00
Eleven go to post for the Group 2 Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes run over 6F of the Knavesmire. Emaraaty Ana has to carry a 5lb penalty for his Group 1 victory at Haydock last September and has shown little in two outings at Meydan this Winter and is overlooked. Dragon Symbol has left Archie Watson and starts out for his new stable of Roger Varian’s. He was a smart sprinter last year and should be thereabouts. Any rain would suit Charlie Fellowes’ Vadream whilst the Hannon runner Happy Romance is yet another that can be competitive. It’s an open sprint but my eye is drawn to the Owen Burrows trained Minzaal. The Gimcrack winner over course and distance as a juvenile he wasn’t seen till the Autumn of his three year old career due to injury and ran two excellent races in defeat at Ascot. Burrow’s, who has won with 3 of his last 4 runners, stated last week that he felt this Mehmas colt can be his flag bearer this season. He looks the likeliest winner to me.
 
MINZAAL 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365
 
York 3.35
A small but select field of five assemble for this year’s renewal of the Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes run over 1m 2F 56yds. Aidan O’Brien has sprung into form over the last week and saddles The Algarve although with a official rating of just 88 she will need to have improved considerably to be taking a hand in the finish here, which with this trainer is quite possible. The short price favourite is Emily Upjohn who impressed everyone including his rider Frankie Dettori when literally scooting up in a Sandown novices stakes in April coming home 9 1/2L clear of her rivals. The runner up that day has been beaten 8 1/2L in an Ascot maiden since so it’s hard to know what the form amounts to (although the only other horse to have run from the race has been the the well beaten stable mate of Emily Upjohn’s Emotion who won at Kempton by 16L last week!). The boys in blue have the big danger to the favourite in the regally bred Life Of Dreams who looked way above average when winning on her debut at Newbury although there are mixed messages regarding those that have run since from that race. Both fillies were impressive on their debuts and it’s a race to savour with slight preference at the likely prices for the Godolphin runner Life Of Dreams.
 
LIFE OF DREAMS 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill
 
York 4.10
An eleven runner three year old 7F handicap is next up and features a warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained unbeaten Kingman colt Samburu who was entered in the Group 1 St James Palce Stakes only last week by his sharp connections. This will be his handicap debut following victories at Newmarket last Autumn and at Salisbury last month. He has to give weight all round here and the horse he beat by 3/4L last time has been beaten since in a Ascot handicap. He’s the most likely winner here but is a very short price and so its maybe best to look for some each way value against him. Kevin Ryan’s handicap debutant Fast And Loose steps up a furlong and is a possible whilst David Loughnane’s Mojomaker just failed to get up at Doncaster last time but is now 3lb higher in the handicap. Loughnane also saddles Dayman, an Amo Racing owned colt who showed promise last time out at Newbury and might be the one to be with each way to small stakes.
 
DAYMAN 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

Sandown 1.50
Sandown brings down the curtain to the 2021/22 NH season with the meeting kicking off with a competitive two mile novices’ handicap hurdle. Knappers Hill bounced back to form in a weak Newton Abbot novice hurdle last week after getting bogged down in the mud at the last Sandown meeting but looks skinny enough under top weight at around the 3/1 mark. Jonjo O’Neill’s Head Law is very progressive and is chasing a four timer today. He’s been shunted up 10lb mind for his latest easy victory in a much lesser contest at Southwell. He has to be on the short list mind. Dr Richard Newland is a particular favourite trainer of mine and he saddles Whizz Kid under Sam Twiston-Davies. He made his handicap debut in a highly competitive handicap hurdle at the National meeting at Aintree and ran with credit when 4th beaten under 3L to Hacker Des Places. He made plenty of the running that day and having won his two previous starts from the front expect Twiston-Davies to ride him positively again today. He’s my idea of the winner. 
WHIZZ KID 2 points each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5 1234
 
Haydock 2.05
A dozen handicappers go to battle here for this class 2 7F handicap. Alrehb has yet to race on the turf but is a useful all weather performer who’s won three of his six starts in that discipline. John Butler has his small string in excellent shape currently and has taken over the training of today’s top weight Sir Dancealot. He’ll probably need this, his first run for 634 days but is worth keeping an eye on (especially if backed). Andrew Balding saddles Oo De Lally who won has won when fresh and has been gelded since last seen. He has claims along with Boardman, who is the main play here. He’s fallen down to his last winning handicap mark of 90 and showed up really well on his re-appearance in a Redcar handicap that has already thrown up a winner. He could ideally do with a shower or two although genuine good ground shouldn’t be an Issue and this Tim Easterby trained six year old should be competitive. An outsider I can’t resist a small ew saver on is the veteran Oh This Is Us who is tumbling down the handicap and can actually race today off of his lowest ever handicap mark. Rated as high as 113 in his pomp he now races off of 93 and showed enough in a better contest than this last time to suggest there may still be another race in the nine year old. 
BOARDMAN 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5 1234
OH THIS IS US 1/4 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5 1234
 
Sandown 2.25
Only four go to post for the 2m 6F 164yds Grade 2 bet365 Oaksey Chase. The best in on official ratings at these weights is the Paul Nicholls runner Saint Calvados who is a smart chaser who’s yet to really show it for Nicholls in his three starts for the Ditcheat trainer since joining from Harry Whittington at the start of the season. I feel this trip will be ideal for him and he is my idea of the most likely winner. 6lb behind on official ratings is the Henderson runner Mister Fisher who was runner up in this contest last year. He’s more than capable as he shows when winning a four runner Grade 2 contest at Kempton in January but has been well beaten twice since and is extremely inconsistent. Scottish raider Nuts Well will be ridden by champion jockey elect Brian Hughes and is not out of it whilst Erne River was very disappointing at Aintree and has the best part of a stone to find with Saint Calvados on official ratings. 
SAINT CALVADOS 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365
 
Leicester 2.45
A disappointing turnout of only three (Edraak was pulled out on Thursday afternoon)go to post for this 7F listed EBF Stallions King Richard lll Stakes. With the Charlie Appleby Godolphin operation in full swing it’s hard not to like their Path Of Thunder who is back from Dubai having run with credit on all three starts over there. Andrew Balding’s Happy Power is officially rated a pound better horse but he’s hard to win with although did run well in a listed contest on the all weather behind Tinker Toy last time out last month. The third member of the field is Clive Cox’s Aratus who was a progressive animal last season winning all three of his starts culminating in a valuable Goodwood handicap in August. He’s been gelded since last seen and looks the biggest threat to Path Of Thunder. 
PATH OF THUNDER 2 points win @ 5/4 bet365
 
Sandown 3.00
Five have declared for the 1m 7F 119yds Grade 1 bet365 Celebration Chase and it’s hard to split Greaneteen and Nube Negra at the top of the market. There’s only 2lb between them on official ratings in favour of the latter who’s trained by Dan Skelton. He’s had a 140 day break since finishing 12L behind Greaneteen in the Tingle Creek here in December and will come here a fresh horse. Having won the Tingle Creek Paul Nicholl’s Greaneteen chased home Shishkin at Kempton over Christmas before bombing out at Leopardstown over Christmas. There were excuses for him that day (he came back with a grazed stifle and Bryony Frost raced on what appeared to be the worst of the ground). He beat Altior in this race last year (Sceau Royal well beaten in third) and looks the one to beat today. It’d hard to give the two outsiders Sky Pirate (17lb to find) and Rouge Vif (14lb) chances but Alan King’s Sceau Royal has claims on ground that will suit and only 5lb to find with top rated Nube Negra. Greaneteen comprehensively beat Nube Negra in the Tingle Creek, won this last year in good fashion and must have a winning chance. 
GREANETEEN 3 points win @ 13/8 William Hill
 
Sandown 3.32
This years bet365 Gold Cup (the Whitbread for us oldies!) is run over 3m 4F 166yds and has attracted a decent sized field of fifteen. Last years race looks the key piece of collateral form with the first three plus the fifth all re-opposing on similar terms. Paul Nicholl’s Enrilo was first past the post that day but was thrown out and the race awarded to Alan King’s Potterman whom he crossed on the run in. Enrilo is a pound better off now and although he appears to have been trained for this race seems short enough in the market at around 7/2. On the other hand Potterman looks overpriced when you consider the conditions will suit and he comes here on the back of a Kelso win. He too has been trained for this and at three times the price of Enrilo is the main selection here. Staying handicap maestro Christian Williams saddles three including last years 3rd and 5th Kitty’s Light and Cap Du Nord and Scottish National winner Win My Wings. The latter was ultra impressive last time but it’s hard to do the double and he’s been raised a stone for that victory. There’s a stamina doubt about Dan Skelton’s Flegmatik who arrives chasing a hat trick whilst the best handicapped horse in the field is probably Philip Hobb’s Musical Slave who has no penalty to carry for his Haydock win so is 7lb well in here. The problem with him is the drying ground and he’s unproven at the longer trip. The best outsider may well be the John Joseph Hanlon raider Hewick. He sounded quite bullish on RacingTV in the week when discussing his chances stating that the faster the ground the better (forget his last run in the Midlands National where he didn’t go a tap on soft ground). From a point of value it’s Potterman for me with a small each way saver on Hewick. 
POTTERMAN 1 point each way 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345
HEWICK 1/4 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5 1234
 

PROP BETS:
I've already done LAR -4.
My son and I picked these out to add a little extra interest (all with PP):
Cooper Kupp 1+ TD @ 6/4 (enhanced special)
Opening KO NOT a touchback @ 8/11
Either team, to score TD on opening dive = NO @ 4/6
Fumble in first half = YES @ 5/4
Fumble in second half = YES @ 5/4
Under 5.5 sacks in game @ 8/11
 
Enjoy
 

Typical race planning, 3 jump meetings yesterday and no all weather, today 0 jump meetings and 3 all weather.
AW selection
Wolverhampton 8.00
SCARBOROUGH CASTLE 11/4

Percy.
76-68 is good with the extreme unpredictability we have seen this year. A level stakes single strategy would have had you about even.
FYI: The top 5 weekly picks at the Hilton Contest were 35-39-1 after week 15. The leader is 51-32-1 (excellent).

This week there are a number of further games which interest me.
Jags +7.5 we might see the true Lawrence tonight @ 10/11.
Browns -2 @ 20/23.
Giants +7.5 @ 20/23. The giants strength is stopping the run.
Washington -1.5 @ 10/11, their defence will scare the Falcons.
and Colts +2 @ 10/11 need to win to prevent going 0 - 4.
0.5 point Canadian plus 2 point roll up. 15 point staked.
All prices Bet365 
 
 

The Packers won for me this week, however they do not like a battle. That's exactly what the 49 Ers will give them. San Fran -3.5 @ 10/11
The Ravens will love the easier game against Detroit. Baltimore -7.5 @ 10/11 
The G Men are 0-2, but I expect them to beat the Falcons. NYG -3 @ Evens
The Eagles do well when games are low scoring but Dallas are capable of high scoring. Dallas -4 @ 10/11
The Cardinals should see off the Jags (but I do expect Trevor Lawrence to improve). Cardinals - 7 @ 5/6
All prices Sky Bet (Against The Spread)
Standard Bet 1 point Canadian plus 4 point roll up = 30 points staked.
Season Record
W6 D1 L 3 Profit +15.54 
 

Bar Mishriff it was tough finding winners on day one but here’s my thoughts on Day 2 :-
 
York 150
Eleven go to post for the Group 2 Lowther Stakes with Sandrine a warm favourite. Andrew Balding’s filly is hard to oppose here despite a 3lb penalty for her Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes victory at the Newmarket July meeting when defeating Her main rival today Desert Dreamer by 1 3/4L. David Probert is having his best ever season and retains his association with this Bobby’s Kitten juvenile who has winning form 8n both heavy and fast ground. Desert Dreamer is closely matched with Zain Claudette on their Princess Margaret Stakes form from Ascot last month and could hit the frame. Sandrine looks smart and should be winning this in my opinion. 
SANDRINE 3 points win @ 13/8 Bet Victor
 
York 2.25
A maximum bumper field of 22 go to post here for the Geoff’s UK Premier Yearling Stakes run over 6F. There’s plenty of dead wood here and only a handful can seriously be fancied. The best in on official ratings is Richard Hannon’s System who looks the likeliest  winner. Pat Dobbs rides this son of Galileo Gold who beat the smart Desert Dreamer in a listed race at Newmarket in June and wasn’t beaten far when 5th in a  Group 3 at Ascot last time. That form should be good enough to take this for Hannon who has farmed this race over the years, winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Tom Dascombe’s  Ever Given and Clive Cox’s Wings Of War can also be competitive although the biggest threat to the selection may actually come from his stable mate Oh Herberts Reign who improved to run a promising newcomer of the Gosden’s close in a Newbury maiden only last weekend. 
SYSTEM 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet 365
 
York 3.00
A bumper turnout for the Clipper Logistics Handicap run over  1m  of the Knavesmire where it pays to be drawn low as those drawn high can be thrown out wide or forced to drop in and forfeit ground. All the main fancies are drawn out wide with the likes of Magical Morning (stall 18), Astro Boy (17), La Trinidad (20) and Ametist (19) and although you can win from there it certainly doesn’t make it easy. Maydanny likes to press forward and is nicely drawn in stall 3 to front run and looks sure to run well although a 6lb penalty for his Golden Mile Handicap win at Goodwood won’t make things easy here although he gets my selection here. The other Shadwell Stud owned runner Basshir, ridden by stable number two Dane O’Neill can also run well. 
MAYDANNY 1 point each way @ 7/1 1/5th 123456
 
York 3.35
This season’s Darley Yorkshire Oaks has attracted 7 runners and looks at the mercy of the odds on favourite Snowfall who should really be winning this. The last four winners of this Group 1 contest have been Enable, Sea Of Class, Enable and Love and Aidan O’Brien’s super mare can join that illustrious group by comfortably winning this. She’s won the Musidora , Epsom and Irish Oaks this season by a staggering aggregate of 28 1/4 lengths. The two four year olds up against her Albaflora and Wonderful Tonight would both much prefer softer ground and it wouldn’t be a shock if one or both were pulled out due to the drying conditions. John Gosden’s Loving Dream had Eshaada 3/4L behind her in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot last time but the latter is reportedly smart and can turn the tables here and chase the favourite home. She can be backed in the ‘without the favourite’ market. 
ESHAADA 2 points win 10/3 Bet365 (without Snowfall)