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Snoopdog

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  1. Thanks
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Yalwen in Race start times   
    Better this year, but I used to feel that Ascot felt races could be off at their convenience. Eg it's off time and they are only just thinking about loading the stalls..
  2. Haha
    Snoopdog got a reaction from BillyHills in BBC Teletext racing results   
    21.13 Just checked page 660, and it's back! So we get it for a bit longer.
  3. Like
    Snoopdog reacted to nottingham21 in NFL 2019/20   
    Early leans for week 4...
    PATS -7
    CHIEFS -6.5
    TITANS ML
    JAGUARS +3 (best bet)
    The Patriots and Chiefs do seem like square plays but honestly both have looked so good that I don't mind backing them both to win by a TD; also think the Bills have way too much hype behind them given that they've beat a Jets team lacking any offense whatsoever, a bad looking Bengals team with no AJ Green and a rookie coach who looks out of his depth, and the Giants. 
  4. Sad
    Snoopdog got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2019   
    Sounds like it's on Eurosport, but not "British Eurosport".
  5. Like
    Snoopdog reacted to Torque in Wimbledon 2019   
    Should have been braver and backed the straight sets but I never imagined Serena could be so dismal. As well as Halep played, Serena was terrible - even worse than last year. UE after UE after UE. If that was me I'd be a bit embarrassed, and I'd also be a bit embarrassed if I was one of Serena's previous opponents in this tournament. She is so obviously lacking in fitness and limited in movement that it makes a bit of mockery of the sport that she can just show up for the big tournaments and make the final like she's done in 3 out of the last 5 Slams.
  6. Like
    Snoopdog reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Friday July 12th   
    I think it may be worth pursuing but it could be something to do with the time of year, the early 2yo's have had there time and now we are seeing better animals making their debuts.
    I do think once a 2yo makes the frame on debut they are automatically made very short by the bookies next time out, very poor value. Punters think they are bound to improve for a run but they could have been ready first time out and therefore are unlikely to progress much further. Breeze Up's and Barrier Trial horses are guilty of this, they are fit first time up and will often only then improve for a step up in trip.
    We get very little info on Barrier Trials by the way.
  7. Thanks
    Snoopdog reacted to CzechPunter in Wimbledon 2019   
    Adding Serena Williams (vs. Kvitova) at 1.83 with Bet365. Not thrilled to be backing Williams in any shape or form, but Kvitova isn't in good shape physically.
  8. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from CzechPunter in Wimbledon 2019   
    Women: Barty outright @ 11/2 with PP
    Men: Nadal outright @ 7/1 with PP
    Longshot double is 51/1
    I did read Czech Punter's comments on the mens, but I just have a little feeling that Novak is still not 100% and the years are catching up with Roger.
    Barty to go beyond Pliskova @ EV B365
    Halep to go beyond Konta @ 8/11 B365
     
  9. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from BillyHills in Royal Ascot 2019 - Tips and Trends   
    Billy, Ao'B Top Trainer at 4/7 looks good to me. (Paddy is 4/9.)
  10. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from CzechPunter in progressive betting on tennis? and being banned for it?   
    As an aside:
    I heared a shocking programme on the radio (World Service, I think, and it might still be available) that basically said the lower levels of tennis were fixed - mainly the ITF Tour. Try a Google to " ITF Tour match fixing" or similar. The list of offenders goes on for pages - and it seems to take a few offences to get life banned. Mostly the fixing  will be on spots (number games, sets, etc) rather than the result. Those players are hurting. It tells of sharing hotel rooms, sharing Uber rides or getting the shuttle, washing kit in the bath. Now I'm sure the main ATP Tour is 100% straight. The poor income leads to temptation.
     
  11. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 2019 PGA Championship   
    I've taken Tiger for only one major in 2019 at 1/3 with Paddy. So call that a Tiger lay for the other 3.
  12. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Systemight in Golden Rules..   
    I'd go a bit further and say (example) class 4 chase form at Cheltenham, Aintree, Newbury, etc counts for a lot more than class 4 chase form at Plumpton, Fontwell, Fakenham, etc. Mostly because the lesser  courses can't attract the best horses.
  13. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from richard-westwood in Golden Rules..   
    I'd go a bit further and say (example) class 4 chase form at Cheltenham, Aintree, Newbury, etc counts for a lot more than class 4 chase form at Plumpton, Fontwell, Fakenham, etc. Mostly because the lesser  courses can't attract the best horses.
  14. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Systemight in Golden Rules..   
    I could easily give a dozen here, but here's a quick 3 fer.
    1. Beware those extra bets: If you're like me, you make your pix ~ 9am when the mind is fairly sharp. Think twice about being influenced by the TV when coverage starts at 1.30 (3 drinks later).
    2. Beware "money back specials", eg " Money back all losers if the fav wins". It often means the bookie feels he can get the fav beat . There was a classic a couple of weeks back when the fav was ~ 6/4, and there was co 2,3,4 favs at ~7/2 each. Without checking a Dutching calculator, That's probably shorter than 6/4. The fav failed. That said, in a different race (same offer) Josie's Orders (the fav) won for me on Sunday.
    3. Think twice about each-way and place only. If you do it because you feel it's not good enough to win, it may well finish down the field. Only do if you feel nailed-on for the place. If you've backed the fav to win, to also do each-way on your second choice is backing against yourself, so do place only - or consider the forecast.
  15. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Sportwetten in NFL 2018/19   
    Week 11:
    Cincy +6; Carol -4.5; LAC -7; KC +3.5
    FYI: In recent weeks the Hilton Contest top 5 pix at:
    https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton
    have gone 5-0 twice in recent weeks. That's a  ~ 25/1 acca. They normally do it once per regular season. Maybe that means they wont do it again this season. They have also had a -5 week this year.
  16. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from black rabbit in Greyhound Derby   
    What a mess the sport is in! There's an article in today's Daily Mail.
    Anyway, tonight is Greyhound Derby night from Towcester (9.07pm).
    Sky nights seems to have ended. [I wish VirginMedia would carry RPGTV.]
    To watch go to: You Tube "Towcester TV".
    The 6/4 fav, Droopy's Veve was only 2 yesterday! Only 15 races, 11 wins 4 seconds.
  17. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from WiggoBets in NFL 2018/19   
    You went 2-3 which is much better than my 0-4. Most of my "so called" guides had a bad week. The Top 5 pix in the Hilton Contest went 0-5! (after 4-1 in week 1).
  18. Thanks
    Snoopdog got a reaction from thegeneral55 in NFL 2018/19   
    I use CBS Power Ranking. See:
    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings/
    Then allow 0.5pts per position, eg team #20 is worh 5.5 pts over team #31
    (31-20)/2 = 5.5
    Then award 3 pts for home field advantage.
    I also like to look at the pix for the Hilton Handicapping Contest in Vegas (now Westage). These are shown by Sunday morning at:  https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton
    People have to pay ~ $1500 to enter that contest, so there are some good people in.
    HTH
     
  19. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from bookiebasher in NFL 2018/19   
    I'm going to continue with a system I developed last year based on CBS Power Rankings, and selections for the Westgate, Las Vegas (was Hilton) Handicapping Contest. I know things haven't yet settled down, but I'm itching to start.
    Week 1 pix are:
    (all one point at ~ 10/11)
    Balt -7.5
    Pitt -3.5
    Cincy +2
    Minne -6.5
    NO -10
    Carol -2.5
    Denver -3
    Detroit -6.5
    I'll be flipping between the golf and NFL tonight
  20. Like
    Snoopdog reacted to Trotter in Sandown Evening Card on ITV4   
    6.35 Vintage Brut - 5/1 bet365 - plum draw, won maiden by 7 lengths on debut, trainers horses usually improve from debut run
    7.05 Gabr -  EW  11/1 PP - 5th in Racing Post Trophy, highest rated of the runners with marks
    7.35 Mount Moriah - 11/2 PP - won Listed race on reappearance, looks a proper stayer, should relish 2 miles
    8.10 Laraaib - 8/1 PP - only 4yo in the line up, won 3 of 4 last year, hopefully will progress past the older established and more exposed types he's up against
     
    I hope this is a success though I can't see ITV making evening racing a regular feature ....... this is probably the best evening meeting of the year
     
  21. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Decookie in SPREADSHEETS   
    Baracca,  I recall hearing in the early days of PL tips that 3 doubles was working better than 1 treble. I don't know about recently. It should impove the strike rate (if not ROI) which keeps up interest. I'm interested to know myself as I was going to advise this as an automatic system bet for the other half to get into this game.
  22. Like
    Snoopdog reacted to captainlucky in 7 furlong angles   
    Hi everyone, 
    I commented on a thread a few days ago about whether specialising in sprints was a good idea, and the subject of 7 furlong races came up (asking if they're classed as sprints). I said I'd post something if I found any merit in a 7 furlong system. It's a specialist distance and because it's such a specialist trip I thought we could find some good things from it. 
    So could be haphazard but he's what I decided to do and what I found out...
    With the theory of some people are better at their job than others I decided to look at trainers in profit over the last four years at 7 furlongs (flat turf only) and only took runners that had 2 or more races in the last 90 days, as a fitness precaution really.
    Paul Cole: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 21.95%, PL +36.75
    Luca Cumani: BETS 29, WINS 7, SR 24.14%, PL +8.26
    David Loughnane: BETS 49, WINS 9, SR 18.37%, PL +50
    Gary Moss: BETS 22, WINS 6, SR 27.27%, PL +22.88
    Martin Smith: BETS 18, WINS 5, SR 27.78, PL +93
    Mark Walford: BETS 21, WINS 5, SR 23.81, PL +21.25
    And the four years combining every trainers runner under those rules were
    2017: BETS 54, WINS 13, SR 24.07%, PL +56.5
    2016: BETS 56, WINS 11, SR 19.64%, PL +98.25
    2015: BETS 35, WINS 9, SR 25.71%, PL +26.26
    2014: BETS 35, WINS 8, SR 22.86%, PL +51.13
     
    As I say this could turn out to be haphazard, maybe the trainers style of preparing horses suits the 7 furlong runners, or perhaps they are just better at understanding it's a specialist distance and what it takes to win at it. I will continue to add to this thread through the flat season and see where it takes us.
  23. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from BillyHills in Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot?   
    Bob, (some more),
    I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
    You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
    I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?
  24. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Alastair in Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot?   
    Bob, (some more),
    I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
    You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
    I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?
  25. Like
    Snoopdog got a reaction from Valiant Thor in Is there ever any point or sense i n trying for the tote jackpot?   
    Bob, (some more),
    I agree with you that bookies are not stupid.
    You are wrong saying the bet is not allowed.
    I take exception to you calling me an idiot. Was that necessary - even if you were right?