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Everything posted by cambroia

  1. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Vitoria guimaraes misses Abdoulaye, centre back on loan from Porto, David addy, left back, regular starter, Maazou...striker, top scorer, their best man. I can see Vitoria struggling a lot against an improved Academica. Would rate Vitoria as favourites around 2.25-2.3, so i see great value on Academica +0.5 at 1.98. My bets: Academica +0.75 1.74 @ 188bet Small bet on Academica straight win 4.9 Betfair and Academica -1 10.00 Bet365. GL
  2. Re: Liverpool v Cardiff City > Saturday December 21st Following the previous idea, i think that Liverpool will try to get the job done and relax. If they get the advantage i think they wont push as much as usual. This being said, and adding the fact that corners stats at Anfield shows: Liverpool: 6.8 vs Oponents: 4.7. Also Cardiff away from home: 4.6 vs Oponents 6.8. I see great value on corner line Cardiff +5 1.92 @ 188bet. GL
  3. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Great match from Porto, corners bet came in easily with 20 corners. Also 4 goals, pretty good night. About Paços - Rio Ave. Stats show an amazing Rio Ave playing away from home and Paços sitting bottom of the table. However from my experience in betting this a tipical match where usually i would mess things up. On paper it looks like a straight win to Rio Ave, but i believe that neither Rio Ave is a team capable of winning so often away from home, nor Paços is a team to be bottom of the table. I expect things to change for both teams so i am definitely out of the 1X2 market. Will read the news later in the day and try to be back to post some info. At first sight i would go with Paços, BTS or overs. For Belenenses - Estoril on sunday, a similar idea. Estoril is a good team, has a great coach, but things change eventually. This is a derby, anything can happen and i wont be surprised with either team to win. In this cases, generally i stay out. However the match is only on Sunday, maybe i change my mind. GL to all.
  4. Re: Liverpool v Cardiff City > Saturday December 21st This year at home, games with the Reds finished over 4.5 goals 5 out of 8 times. the other 3 matches were under 2 goals. Curious fact: not a single game in 8 finished with 2 or 3 goals. Brendan Rodgers praised Makay after the episode with the Cardiff´s owner. Rodgers showed such a respect to the guy that almost made me weep. If this was a friendly match i would even risk a victory for Cardiff :) Anyway, Suarez is on fire, Liverpool is on fire, everything points out to another smash. However any bettor around for a couple of years almost for sure lost money somewhere in the past with a situation like this. The thing is that Brendan Rodgers will have two nightmares to deal with in the next week...the Reds travel to Manchester to face City and then to London to face Chelsea. Two dificult matches around the corner, i can easily see 1-0, 2-0, 2-1. Liverpool gets the job done with no worries, Brendan Rodgers cuts Makay some slack making him the guy that didn´t get smashed at Anfield. Everyone is happy but the bettor. Im with 2-3 goals at 2.25 @ 188bet GL
  5. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 well, have been looking at the odds on Porto-Olhanense. My first thought was something like 3-0, 4-0 to Porto, but as i said before the -2.5 asian under evens doesn´t represent value to me. Though i just found 4-6 goals scored on Lcbet at 2.25. 188bet offers 1.84. Also the over 3.5 goals is set at 2.03. As i dont imagine a result of 6-1, 5-2, 7-0, 4-6 goals at 2.25 represents value compared to the over 3.5 Took 4-6 goals 2.25 @ LCbet
  6. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 As for Setubal - Benfica, history says that Benfica punishes Setubal a lot. However Benfica has been struggling lately, conceding some stupid goals. Jorge Jesus is still absent from the bench. Setubal´s coach is very weak...i hate that guy. Last match against Braga, loosing by 1-0 and his team was still defending. I wont be surprised if today he plays to avoid a slaughter, as i wont be surprised if he tries to do the same as Olhanense did last week scoring two goals, and in that case probably Benfica trashes them. So 0-1 or 0-4...none of them will surprise me. Gun to my head, i would say Under 3 at 1.86. But i never play unders. GL
  7. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Olhanense will park the bus tonight on Dragao. Asian -2.5 seems fair to me. Porto improved last week and think they will easily win tonight. Though im affraid that if Olhanense holds them for the first half hour, the environment will get tense, reminding the last couple of weeks. With 0-0 or even a single 1-0 at halftime things might get messy in the second half as dont trust Paulo Fonseca. wont be surprised with either a 1-0, 2-1 victory or a 6-0. Olhanense parking the bus, Porto with something like 70% possession, using Varela as a winger trying to assist Martinez, Danilo the left back also goes forward a lot. I see a lot of corners for Porto as usual. At home they average 8 corners a match...olhanense away 4.8. that gives 12.8 between both teams. That, plus the fact i mentioned before, i predicted Porto being all over Olhanense tonight and the corners coming all the time. I see value on over 11.5 corners @ 2.02 188bet. GL
  8. Re: Ligue 2 > December 19th - 21st IMHO this forum is getting worst everyday. Altough i only have a couple of posts myself, i have been following this forum for awhile. In the last few weeks what i read the most in a couple of threads was the words "fixed match". It is clear that a lot people here dont have a clue about soccer nor about betting. Meatman is a great tipster. Even if you dont wont to follow his predictions you can at least take advantage of his insights, like weather conditions, team form, injuries, squads conditions, etc... Guys like Shima should be banned..if the mods dont want to ban a guy that after taking advantage of a fellow´s work still comes here to insult him...than F*uck this forum aswell. Im a professional punter since 2006...for all you kids complaining about this bad streak and about fixed matches i can tell you this: "get up everyday at 7am...and go to work till the rest of your lives"..cause definitely, you'll never profit with betting in your life.. KEEP UP MEATMAN...
  9. Re: Ligue 2 > December 19th - 21st thank you guys for both your posts. i understand the system, i know that odds drop, i know what makes them to drop. i bet on pinny, sbobet, 188bet, bet365 and betfair...so, the best bookies around. and the fact that lines change is not luck...is always about the money!
  10. Re: Ligue 2 > December 19th - 21st Hi Meatman. Great preview as usual. Thank you. Though i would like to ask you the same question i did last week: Where do you get those odds from? Cant find a single bookie with opening odds for -1 at 2.2. This has been happening for the last weeks. I have been following you almost blindly as i do appreciate you previews but i never bet with the same value as you do...please help! Cheers and keep going!
  11. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 awful benfica, again! :sad
  12. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Also agree on Drac Blau´s preview for Benfica. didnt see the odds yet but i think that 1.97 for the asian wont last longer. Olhanense still "fighting" against their own fans for not playing in their stadium. Paulo Alves, average coach, had an issue with a player this week, sending him of the training session. Rui Duarte and Jander, their most valuable players are out...anyway, a lot of troubles. Paulo Alves said that if they could create 4 or 5 goal opportunities would be great. Benfica will have a lot of fans in the stadium and to be honest i dont really care about Enzo Perez or Cardozo missing the game. Against such a poor team, after dropping points against Arouca, i donr think they will do the same. Benfica wants the title and they will eventually bounce back...good opportunity tomorrow. I predict something like 0-3, 0-4. GL
  13. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting has been fantastic lately. Following the defeat in Dragao, they had some trouble against Maritimo at home, trailing 1-2 at halftime but they managed to win in the second half. Since then 3 victories, 2 away from home with 7-0 in goals. Belenenses has a lot of problems scoring. Since their last victory on the 5th October they only scored once in 5 matches...that was against Porto after an incredible error from Mangala (look on youtube). Last 5 matches, 4 draws, 3 0-0, 1-1 against Porto and a loss by 1-0 away to Paços. Belenenses fights to avoid relegation, they keep it tight at the back and try the counters...thing is that they lack quality in the attack and all forwards hasnt scored a single goal yet. the best scorers are Joao Pedro, a winger, and Miguel Rosa their best player, the former benfica player, their playmaker that will miss the match tonight. I predict Belenenses to park the bus...however sporting has been super lately, a lot of quality and options in their squad. after getting the first place in the league, cant see them loosing in a home game against poor Belenenses. 2-0, 3-0 is my call here. Sporting -1.25 1.78 188bet 10/10
  14. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Im going with -1.25 for Braga. They played really well last match on Dragao against Porto holding them to a draw at halftime and giving the home fans some headache. I think they created some momentum and picking up Setubal at home should be a good oportunity to keep making amends with their fans and start climbing up in the table Setubal is completely overrated following the unbeaten run of 9 matches. though as i said before they performed in 4 of those matches agains lowest divisions teams. Braga -1.25 1.97 @ 188bet 8/10 GL
  15. Re: Chelsea v Crystal Palace > Saturday December 14th well, after this hilarious sentence, i´ll follow aidymac advice. cheers mate
  16. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 In the last 9 matches Setubal played Portimonense from 2nd division, Santa Maria and Alcanenense from the lowest divisions. Unexpected results were tthe victory away to Estoril and the draw away with Nacional. Apart from that Setubal did what they had to do. Dont get fooled by these 9 matches unbeaten. Couceiro is still a poor coach and Setubal is still a team to fight hard to avoid relegation. im not sure yet if i go with Braga on the asian but im predicting something like 2-0, 3-0 today. GL
  17. Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th Goal fest - check!
  18. Re: Chelsea v Crystal Palace > Saturday December 14th Yeah, you´re right! The coach isnt important. All of those paying 10M a year to coaches like Guardiola, Mourinho, Capello, Pellegrini, Mancini, Eriksson, etc...are all dumbs! You´re the smart one.
  19. Re: Chelsea v Crystal Palace > Saturday December 14th IMO both coache´s words say a lot from what we can expect on this match: Mourinho more than speaking about Crystal Palace, focused on the other oponents: "It's very difficult to predict the way things are going. One thing is if we beat Arsenal, another thing is if Arsenal beat us. We can close the gap or they can open the gap. "This weekend Tottenham-Liverpool, somebody loses points, us against Arsenal, somebody loses points, Arsenal against City, somebody loses points." Chelsea will go for it tomorrow with all their strength, waiting for their oponents to drop points and then travel to the Emirates to keep the game tight and avoid the gap to open before hosting Swansea and Liverpool on the two home matches schedule for the xmas season. Tony Pulis on the other hand said: At Selhurst Park you can make it difficult and you can make it more of a competitive match. When you go away, it can be, in my experience, very, very difficult. "The pressure is off us; I don't think anybody expects us to go to Chelsea and win the game. Palace definitely showed some improvement under Pulis management, but his words clearly show that in order to avoid relegation they need to focus their mind on the home games. Of course this doesn´t mean that Palace will not fight to win the match. Chelsea needs to get back on track before visiting Arsenal. The game tomorrow is crucial and i just cant see Mourinho throwing away any points at home any time sooner.
  20. Re: Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th Keep up Meatman! Looking forward for to make some cash tomorrow! Thank you and regards.
  21. Re: Manchester City v Arsenal > Saturday December 14th Wenger said the main goal is to avoid City to have the ball. Probably a boring game from Arsenal worrying not to concede. In fact they will face Chelsea in Xmas and then they travel two times in a row. Aguero, Toure and Kompany are back after resting in the Champions match...they will be allover the place tomorrow. Last 7 matches, i guess, between both teams were all under 2.5, but streaks come to an end eventually, and if we think about the goals City has been scored lately i think no one can be surprised if this match finishes with something like 2-1, 3-1, 3-2. Arsenal are no push overs, if they concede an early goal maybe we can watch a goal fest here. Odds are not good though, so my call will be to wait for live betting. If in the first 15 minutes no goals are scored i will probably go for the overs as i think that on goal from each of the teams will turn the match into a goal fest. Gl to all
  22. Re: Aston Villa v Manchester United > Sunday December 15th Forget about your favourite players playing for United. Man United needs only one thing: SIR ALEX. End of story.
  23. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Some insight for today´s match Academica - Maritimo. Both teams improving lately. Both draw in points with 14. However Academica fights to avoid relegation, Maritimo fights for Europe. Facts: - Academica beat Braga already this season and Porto two weeks ago. - They like to keep things tight at the back, results are usually 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, always low scoring matches. - After beating Porto, they lost with Setubal away one week ago by 1-0. They clearly played to get a single point. After suffering they were all over the attack. - They miss quality in the attack. - At home they are usually a pain in the ass. - Maritimo scores a lot...20 goals so far, 4th best attack. - Maritimo conceeds a lot...24 goals so far..worst defense. - Maritimo has a lot of power upfront. Great stikers every single year. - Maritimo plays an offensive style. - Both coaches have a conflict with each other after a match in pre-season. H2H clearly favours Maritimo, last 10 matches they won 6, they won the last 3 in Academica stadium, all matches went over 3.5. BTS to score or over 2 @ 1.75. GL
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