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cambroia

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Posts posted by cambroia

  1. Re: Portugal Segunda Liga > 2013/14

    Penafiel - Farense Over 1.75 1.82 Pinnacle side bet: over 3.5 7 @ Betfair Crazy odds, specially for me that hate to bet unders. Penafiel started the season really well but has been struggling lately. However they beat Maritimo 3-2 from the premier league away for the Cup. Great result that will boost their morale. I rated Farense to be a surprise...they were a good team in the past, then relegated to the regionals divisions for bankruptcy. In the last years they managed to achive promotion every year and they are now in a good spot to fight for promotion again. If they beat Penafiel they equalise them in the table and get closer to the top spots with 34 points. Odds for over 2.5 are 3.1 in Betfair...crazy odds...probably because the weather in the last 10 days has been awful..well today its not raining, weather may help to a good match between two teams that will go for the win. GL
    1 hour...great payout! :D
  2. Re: Portugal Segunda Liga > 2013/14 Penafiel - Farense Over 1.75 1.82 Pinnacle side bet: over 3.5 7 @ Betfair Crazy odds, specially for me that hate to bet unders. Penafiel started the season really well but has been struggling lately. However they beat Maritimo 3-2 from the premier league away for the Cup. Great result that will boost their morale. I rated Farense to be a surprise...they were a good team in the past, then relegated to the regionals divisions for bankruptcy. In the last years they managed to achive promotion every year and they are now in a good spot to fight for promotion again. If they beat Penafiel they equalise them in the table and get closer to the top spots with 34 points. Odds for over 2.5 are 3.1 in Betfair...crazy odds...probably because the weather in the last 10 days has been awful..well today its not raining, weather may help to a good match between two teams that will go for the win. GL

  3. Re: Cardiff City v Sunderland > Saturday December 28th Last match Cardiff - Southampton i thought about playing the over but decided to go with BTS as i predicted that a 1-1 would be the most probable outcome. Well, wrong decision. For this one i will do the opposite, going with the over instead. Cardiff conceded 6 in the last two and were totally outplayed by Southampton. Sunderland on the other hand didnt conced in the last 3 and scored 1 in Goodison Park. However they missed to score twice before Everton with 2 0-0. There´s no more time to Poyet as they desperately need points and following the amazing victory against Everton i think they will fight hard to keep this momentum going. However Cardiff is playing at home and with all the problemas going on lately on the board of directors and the fact they have been underperforming, they need to bounce back. Perfect timing hosting the bottom team. Both teams wanting something from the match, i can easily imagine something like 1-1, 1-2, 3-1. Over 2.25 2.00 188bet

  4. Re: Aston Villa v Swansea City > Saturday December 28th Villa has been awful. 4 defeats in a row, only one goal scored in the last 4. However, last season they were even worst, with one point less. Swansea had a good start, played well on Europa League, but the team needs some rest. Bony, Hernandez and de Guzman will probably start, but Dyer, Vorm and Michu are still out. Villa still miss Vlaar and Benteke, two key players that in part makes a bit easier to understand their poor run. Swansea will have a trip to hell in January playing Man City, Man United and Tottenham in a row, Villa also with a terrible schedule facing Arsenal and Liverpool. Both teams equal in quality, only separated by one point, both hungry for points. I think the lack of home goals for Villa will end eventually and i also think Swansea has quality enough to upset them as they almost did to Chelsea. I agree that Villa has been underperforming, but i dont rate Swansea as favorites, so beside the bet on goals on going with Villa aswell. Over 2.25 1.92 Pinnacle Villa +0.25 1.71 Pinnacle Small punt Villa to win and over 2.5 4.5 Bet365

  5. Re: West Ham v West Bromwich Albion > Saturday December 28th I think the table doesn´t reflect the real value of West Ham. Sam Allardyce is a godd coach and he has good players, unfortunately without Andy Carrol they miss a good striker. Last match against Arsenal they performed well, scored first and almost got the second goal. Curious statistic: West Ham is one of the worst teams scoring goals as they failed to score in 9 out of 18. However, alongside with Everton they are the team with the most clean sheets, 9 in 18 matches, more than the top teams. they drew 0-0 5 times against teams they should have beat. Perhaps they missed a bit of luck. I think they will bounce back and all Allardyce needs to restore the confidence is a win. WBA got lucky against Tottenham and played a very tough match. Home advantage will decide this one. Im with West Ham DNB 1.76 @ 188bet

  6. Re: Hull City v Fulham > Saturday December 28th Both teams struggling for points. Hull still above of the relegation spots, Fulham is in the dangerous zone but improved a bit in the last matches collecting 6 points in 4 matches. Defeats with Man City and Everton are not a shame. I predicted over 2.25 on the Hull - Man Utd simply because i thought Hull would give United a hard time. So for this match i think the same will happen...if they scored twice against United they should be able to score agains Fulham aswell. This is the kind of match that Steve Bruce knows that they must win in order to avoid relegation. However, Fulham as been improving lately, and the new coach seems to have changed things little bit. They still miss Hangeland and Senderos, but even without them they managed to beat Norwich in the last match. Berbatov may be back so they will have more power upfront. On the home side, the keeper Mcgregor will miss, also Meyler got a knock and will miss this one. Fulham with only 3 clean sheets out of 18, Hull with 5. Both teams with some missings, both coaches knowing their opposition is the type they should be able to beat...i can imagine an open match and i think any team may win...1-2, 2-1, 2-2... BTS 1.85 @ 188bet

  7. Re: Cardiff City v Southampton > Boxing Day Im going with BTS on this one. Both teams need to improve. Cardiff with all the problems with that episode "coach and fans vs club owner", southampton on a downswing. I think both teams will go "gung-ho" on each other and try to bounce back. I wont be surprised with any team winning, i think both will get something from the match. Maybe 1-1 or 1-2, 2-1. BTS 1.9 188bet

  8. Re: Tottenham Hotspur v West Bromwich Albion > Boxing Day I correctly predicted the Spurs winning with Southampton based on the idea that Spurs is a great despite all the troubles with the sack of AVB. I still dont understand with the guy was sacked. Winning at Southampton would leave them with a great chance to reach top4 after the festive season with two home games yet to be played. I think the victory in the last match created some momentum and we´ll see Tottenham reaching the spot they deserve. Against a poor WBA i cant imagine another result than a easy win. I think Adebayor will be firing up the place again, i predict something like 3-0, 4-0. Tottenham -1 1.83 @ Sbobet

  9. Re: Chelsea v Swansea City > Boxing Day City facing Liverpool, Arsenal with two away games in a row, Chelsea will be aiming to reach the top with two home wins with Swansea and Liverpool. It´s in the big decisions that i like to see Mourinho´s teams, cause usually they deliver. Swansea is begginning string of matches that will probably lead them to hell, cause after Stamford Bridge they "get some rest" agains Villa, before facing City, United and Tottenham. Hard times coming for Laudrup´s troops. I predict and very strong aproach from Chelsea and maybe a job done at halftime. Chelsea -1.25 1.8 @ 188bet

  10. Re: Hull City v Manchester United > Boxing Day True that Hull has a good home record, but as neilovan said, beside Liverpool they played mid-table teams. Also agree TotoSchillacci about the squad rotation, however it is not only the Boxing day and the next match that matters, cause on the 1st January they go to Anfield. Ff Steve Bruce was asked if he would be happy collecting 3 points from this 3 matches i think he would say "No"...but if he was asked if he would be happy to collect 4, then probably he would say "Yes"... So, easy to say from which match would the extra point come from. I think Hull´s home form may be overestimated here and that´s why i believe that Man Utd will win this one, though i hate these odds. Man Utd seems to have created some momentum. Also think Hull City might get something out this match for the reasons i said before so im predicting something like 1-2, 1-3. Will play it safe and go with Over 2.25 1.826 @ Pinnacle

  11. Re: Norwich City v Fulham > Boxing Day I dont like Norwich. Despite reading some people praising their attack, i rate Gary Hooper as good player, Elmander average, Wolfswinkel awful. as for Becchio i cant say much. Fulham as been improving, but Berbatov remains doubtfull, Hangeland and Senderos out. Big trouble for Fulham on defense. Easy No Bet on 1X2 and handicaps. Though im with BTS. Norwich with only 6 clean sheets in 17, Fulham with only 3 in 17. Fulham scored 12 out of 17, Norwich in 11 out of 17. Both teams struggling lately, both teams average in quality, typical match where both coaches think have an hedge over each other.In these cases i like to go with overs or BTS. As i dont rule out a 1-1 final score im with: BTS 1.7 @ Lcbet GL

  12. Re: Manchester City v Liverpool > Boxing Day This is one of those matches that look so easy to profit from. City wins because o their amazing power at home, scoring tons of goals, etc, etc. Over 3.5 because both teams scores tons of goals, because it seems impossible that a team fails to score. However anyone in this businness for quite a long, also knows that in these kind of matches usually someones screws up. Either the home team that played badly, either the away team striker that missed those chances, or the away team GK that performed amazingly..anyway, so many excuses. IMO Brendan Rodgers will try to avoid defeat...everyone knows it´s very hard to play eye-in-the-eye in the ettihad. Also because there´s a trip to Stamford Bridge on the 28th. Rodgers also knows that Aguero is missing. And both Negredo and Dzeko dont have the argentinian´s hability. They are great players but both prefer to play in the area, a total diferent type of game that Aguero has. Clichy will play left-right probably, so Coutinho may be the man to create chances for Liverpool. I think the game will be tight, Liverpool will try to collect a point, so i will avoid this one because i wont be surprised with something like 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 or even a win from Liverpool. I would go with Under 3.25 1.9 on Sbobet or 2-3 goals on 188bet. But i dont bet unders. GL to all

  13. Re: Aston Villa v Crystal Palace > Boxing Day

    :eek:eek:eek The FA must have ruled our victory at Hull null and void, will contact citizens advice. Despite Villa not having Benteke I agree that this will be tough game for Palace, particularly since Chamakh is out who is really a key force for us. O'Keefe and Dikgacoi are doubts rather than definately out. Certainly on paper a game that can be a rare home win for Villa but prices reflect this and so it's a no bet for me.
    Clearly mistaken. Sorry. Looked at Sunderland record instead. My bad :( Anyway, still confident on Villa! GL
  14. Re: Aston Villa v Crystal Palace > Boxing Day Palace still without Okeefe and Dikgacoi, also Chamakh will miss the match. Villa will have Agbonlahor back. Palace is the only team without a victory on the road this season. I like Tony Pulis and i agree that under his management the team improved but on the other side there will be a team that can climb to the safety spots if they manage to collect 6 points from the two home matches that follows. I think that in this case home advantage will preveil. Interesting facts: - in 8 home matches Villa never reached halftime in a winning position. however they hosted so far: Liverpool, United, City, Everton, Tottenham, Newcastle, Cardiff and Sunderland. - Villa has the most booking points in the league: 38 for 38 yellow cards. In January things will get messy against for Villa, playing Liverpool and Arsenal. Beating Palace tomorrow and then Swansea again at their home ground, will help them climbing up to the safety spots before the busy January. Villa has been better away from home...so that must mean something. I think is a good team and results in front of their fans will appear eventually. I predict a strong and agressive Villa as the card count shows. Villa to win 1.99 Sbobet Small punt: Halftime/Fulltime Villa/Villa 3.25 Betfair GL

  15. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd

    Lastly, to give you an example of what I said earlier about getting an extra 0.1% even out of your bets, here was a question I asked in "The Mug Test" section of my blog: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp B - Back overs 1.98 C - Lay unders 2.02 D - Doesn't matter at all Answer: 7) On Betfair, if you decided to back overs, which market do you opt for? Backing overs at 1.98, or Laying unders at 2.02? A - Derp - 0 points B - Back overs 1.98 - 0 points C - Lay unders 2.02 - 5 points D - Doesn't matter at all - 0 points Some may not know this, presuming 0% commission, backing overs at 1.98 = odds of 1.98, but laying unders of 2.02 = backing overs at 1.9804. Should there be 5% commission, the ratio is still the same. Backing at 1.98 = 1.931, laying 2.02 = backing at 1.9804 = 1.93138 at 5% commission. Though it may seem minor, it is common in Betfair and takes no effort to use the lay market rather than the back market. It may take some maths to work out the actual odds, but you can test it out next time to find such a market on Betfair.
    mate, these maths dont add up to me. care to explain please?
  16. Re: Arsenal v Chelsea > Monday December 23rd at first sight Arsenal - Chelsea has OVER written all over it. Though Mourinho is undefeated in 9 matches against Wenger and most of the matches went under 2.5. Chelsea will keep it tight at the back. I can easily imagine 0-0 at halftime so i will be out of this one. Chelsea´s defense has been shaky and that´s why Mourinho said we would be cautious in the future probably playing in the counter-attack. 1 point for Chelsea will be good enough. If any of the teams scores an early goal maybe we can see a goal fest like i predicted on City-Arsenal match. Will leave it for InPlay. I would say under 1.25 at halftime 1.76 188bet. But i never play unders. Good luck

  17. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Estoril has no missings as far as i know, aside the fact that Luis Leal left to Arabia. Carlitos back in the squad, probably directly to the start XI. Belenenses lost Diakite, strong midfielder, great header, 3 goals this season. He will be missed in the midfield. However, Miguel Rosa is back in the team. Rosa arrived from Benfica, twice the most valuable player in the second league, worked with Benfica in the two last pre-seasons and was always on the verge to be part of the team. He his a good playermaker and will cause impact again compensating for the lack of power in the attack. Estoril has been irregular. They are in good form, but they lost 3 in a row at home and won 3 in a row away from home...this is really odd. Belenenses after a terrible beginning with 4 defeats was then undefeated in 5 matches. they drew with Porto, Benfica and beat Maritimo..quite impressive. They lack power upfront, so they try to keep the game tight. Without the last match against Sporting with a 3-0 defeat they played 9 games all with under 2.5 goals and 2 0-0 draws. Today´s match is a derby...Belenenses will try to keep it tight as Estoril plays an offensive style, but with Miguel Rosa they will be able to create more chances also because he is good in set pieces. I think this match has DRAW written all over it. Estoril amazing run away from home will end eventually. I like them but not enough to be 2.2 favourites here. Will go with Belenenses +0.5 1.78 Pinnacle.

  18. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 No way i cant miss this one: Gil Vicente -0.25 2.12 @ 188bet Both teams struggling lately with only a point in their last 4 matches. The fact is that Gil Vicente had a good run in the first 9 matches, but lately they lost against Maritimo and Estoril away, and with Sporting at home. No big deal, no surprises. Arouca on the other hand lost twice at home with Guimaraes and Maritimo, and away with Setubal. They picked up 1 point away with Benfica but that was tremendous luck. Gil Vicente will get back on track, they have a lot more quality than Arouca. I rate Arouca with Olhanense to be the worst teams of the league. Will take a look at the news in the morning to decide if i also go with the straight win. GL

  19. Re: Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur > Sunday December 22nd If betting is finding value on odds, then i cant miss Tottenham at 3.15 this time. Southampton was great in the first 10 matches, but i think they are at the right spot at the moment. the 9th place fits them properly. On the other hand, Tottenham will keep fighting for the top 4 no matter what. I still dont understand why Villas Boas was sacked, spurs fans dont understand. Tottenham lost two games at home that probably shouldn´t, against Newcastle and West Ham. But on the other hand they drew against Chelsea and Man Utd. Next week they host WBA and Stoke before the travel to Old Trafford. If they win tomorrow and the next two matches at home, as City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea all play each other in the next week, Spurs can easily climb to the place where they belong. I think bookies are biased by the sack of Villas Boas, the fact that Southampton created a huge impact for being promoted last season and for the likes of Lallana, Rodriguez and Lambert being capped for England. Southampton has been great? Yes.. But Tottenham is still one of the best 3 teams away from home with 5 victories. I predict an open match. Southampton will try to take advantage of this so called bad period of Tottenham. But if Spurs plays at their level, no way Southampton can upset them. The Saints only failed to score twice this season, but i cant see Tottenham failing to score tomorrow. I think there will be goals for both teams and a Spurs win. Im with: Tottenham +0.25 1.86 Pinnacle Over 2.5 2.06 Pinnacle Small punts on Tottenham to win 3.16 Pinnacle Tottenham -1.5 6.25 888sport GL

  20. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Such an awful night :( Academica´s centre back Halliche was sent off after suffering an agression and responding to a provocation..unbeliavable. Even so Academica gave Guimaraes a hard time till halftime, even with 10 players. Nacional played well like predicted, Sporting suffered a bit. Diego Barcellos from Nacional missed an incredible chance face to face with the keeper. The ref disallowed a clean goal to Sporting. :(

  21. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting - Nacional BTS 1.96 Betfair Nacional scored in 5 out of 6 matches away from home this year. Manuel Machado likes to play it tight and go on the counter. Today i predict the same to happen. Sporting will take control, but Nacional has great wingers and they wont just sit back. As i said before i think Sporting will break eventually and as Nacional are no pushovers i wont be surprised if Sporting dont deliver today. Of course they are clear favourites but i think the match wont be easy and Nacional will give them a hard time just like they gave to Porto. I predict 2-1 for Sporting.

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