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Posts posted by cambroia

  1. Re: Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea > Wednesday April 2nd In the last two seasons PSG played 9 matches at home for the Champions League...only Benfica and Dinamo Zagreb failed to score..Kiev, Porto, Valencia, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Leverkusen, Anderlecht all managed to score...if i can see this, i believe Mourinho also can. PSG´s defense is very good but the Champions League is not League 1. I agree that Mourinho will sit back, keep the game tight, defend and try the counter...that´s what he does on such big games like this...but if Chelsea takes a 1-0 defeat to London, Mourinho knows he´s in trouble, cause PSG has enough power to score in any stadium of the world, and in case they score in Stamford Bridge, Chelsea needs at least 3 goals to go through... I think Mourinho will find it easier to give it a go today...that´s why i dont like the under here. When Chelsea played Arsenal, Man Utd, Man City away from home, Mourinho would be happy with all matches ending 0-0. But even if they suffered and lost 1-0 that would be exaclty the same as if Chelsea tried to attack and lost 2-1. Well, today this is not the case...1-0 for PSG is the worst result Mourinho can get (2-0, 3-0 are even worst, of course), that´s why i think that tonight Chelsea will defend but try to do what almost every teams did in the Champions League agains PSG..score a goal. I think this will end 1-1 or 2-1. I will take over 2.25 2.00 @ Pinnacle. GL

  2. Re: FC Barcelona v Atlético de Madrid > Tuesday April 1st

    There's no way you can deny that Simeone isn't a fantastic coach. Just look at the resources at his disposal and you have to wonder how Atletico are top of La Liga and managed to win the Copa del Rey last season. His transfer record is brilliant as well and just look at how he's managed to get the best out of players like Tiago who looked well past it over 5 years ago not to mention Costa who he has turned from an average striker to one of the world's best. Atletico don't play an expansive possession game but they still create a ton of chances through not only their intense pressing game but through technical players such as Turan' date=' Koke and Diego which is good to watch for me. Another thing to consider is the mess Atletico were before Simeone took charge sitting in the bottom half of La Liga.[/quote'] I agree that Koke, Turan and Diego are great players to see...also Gabi, Garcia, Mario Suarez...i give Simeone the credit for putting the team together..but that´s it...story ends there. I admire Simeone for the confidence and the mentality of sacrifice he brought to the team...the team is agressive, they are amazing defending...but that´s it...like i said before, he relies on a great striker: Diego Costa and last year was Falcao. The match today was proof of that..Diego Costa got injured and since then Atletico had one two shoots on goal... How can you explain that Atlético is 9th in table of ball possession in La Liga? Teams like Granada and Celta de Vigo have more possession than Atlético...weird hein? About the Champions League? In 32 teams there are only 5!!!! worst than Atlético, Austria Vien, CSKA, Celtic, Plzen and Copenhagen...weird hein?? Well, im not making this up...these are the real stats. Porto, in the worst season of the last 6-7 years dominated them in both matches...Zenit in Russia dominated them...Milan also... I respect coaches that gets the best of their teams, coaches that when they need to defend, they defend...but Simeone always aproaches the match defensively, being against Barça or Almeria...and that´s why i think he´ll never be a top coach... We have examples like these all over the world, coaches that like to play "the poor guy"...they make tremendous work in mid table teams, but then when they have a shot at a team that plays for titles, they screw up...that´s what will happen to Simeone..unless he changes his style of play... Anyway...congrats on your bets and keep profiting! Cheers mates
  3. Re: FC Barcelona v Atlético de Madrid > Tuesday April 1st

    i couldn't disagree more with everything you wrote in this topic regarding Atlético. I am suspecting that you are heavily biased against Atlético (or Simeone) in some way. Am I right?
    Yes, indeed...i dont like Atlético, i dont like Simeone...but that doesn´t mean im biased...by the way, i made a nice profit this year with Atlético...but today i just couldn´t see them getting anything out of the game...well, i was wrong. But this doesn´t change the fact that i dont like them...they had tremendous luck by drawing the match..but this is football..things happen.
  4. Re: Manchester United v FC Bayern München > Tuesday April 1st

    You didn't actually say so' date=' but if you're saying Bayern is an awful bet at 1.55, then backing Man Utd +0.5 at 2.78 (latest Pinnacle odds) must be a good one ... yes?[/quote'] Strange post from such a reputable member...MPLouis you´re such a good tipster, im surprised with that post... I believe you heard about NO BET...does that answer to your question? Not seing value on the away side doesn´t mean i see value on the home side...a lot of times i see value on a team and i simply dont have the guts to on them...this is something similar...i dont see value on Bayern, but going against them is too risky, of course.
  5. Re: Manchester United v FC Bayern München > Tuesday April 1st Im amazed with comments on this thread. A lot of you guys saw great value on Man City to win at Old Trafford...that wasn´t even debatable according to some of you...they won.. Then again a great value according to the same punters on City to beat Arsenal..they would do that easily someone said. Well, they didn't... Now you see value on Bayern at 1.55???!!!! Man Utd has been poor and Bayern has been great???? OF COURSE...but when it comes to betting and you look for value, 1.55 doesn´t represent any value whatsoever...Bayern can smash United 6-0 or 7-0...but from the point of view of the sharp bettor, 1.55 an awful bet! Will anyone be surprised if United manages to score a goal and get a 1-1 draw? Bayern will still be happy with it.. Like i´ve been saying..it is still Old Trafford..

  6. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 A couple of days ago i would stick to Braga +0.5 simply because of the fact that i think Jorge Jesus will try to control the advantage of 7 points. If Benfica wins the 3 remaining mathces at home, which they probably will, they may loose 2 today in Braga, another 2 in Arouca and 3 in Porto in the last round...this would be the worst scenario but would give them the title. Benfica screwed things up in the past because of injuries and tireness of the players...it seems that Jesus finnally learned the lesson and that´s why i think that from now on Jesus will only play to get the job done. However given the fact that Braga has so many injuries i cant go against Benfica. Braga is a place with a lot of Benfica fans...the kind of fans that during the year support Braga and against Benfica they support Benfica... I think Benfica will control the match, try to get things done and relax...wont be surprised with a 0-0 draw but all depends on the approach Benfica has to the game... If Benfica go "gung-ho" which i dont think so for the reasons i stated before, Braga may well be smashed, because if they suffer and try to get back on the game, they will get bullied because today they miss crucial players.. If Benfica approaches it carefully the match may be boring and Benfica get´s the job done in the second half and go home happy with a 1-0 win. If you have the chance to watch the game, i advise you to wait for inplay...the match may be boring, but also become a goal fest if a goal is scored earlier. GL

  7. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Skip it... Porto has improved a bit with the new coach but Benfica also has been playing great football. In previews seasons Benfica failed in the end of the season because Jorge Jesus is a crapy coach...they play 40 games at a high tempo and in the end they are tired and with a lot of injuries...after 4 seasons with this scenario Jesus finnally realised their players are not Supermans, and he has been playing a little more cautious, rotating the squad... Dont get fooled by Benfica´s last matches...they beat Nacional away 4-2 but one minute before de 4th goal, Nacional failed an incredible chance that would give them the 3-3...then with Tottenham at home, after the halftime winning by 1-0, Benfica relaxed to much and gut lucky again to draw the match after two Sigurdsson poor finishes... Porto still lacks quality, Benfica is favourite to reach the final, but this is only the first leg...Jesus usually screws things up in the big moments, so my advice is: NO BET. If you have the chance to watch the game live try to bet inplay...GL

  8. Re: Chelsea v Arsenal > Saturday March 22nd

    Chelsea with a game in the midweek and have home advantage against Arsenal. Things at the top are very complicated and it`s unclear who is gonna take the championship. Taking a look back in the history during Mourinho`s reign all things points that Arsenal are not going to loose this game. It seems that Chelsea have difficulties playing against Arsenal. Also Mourinho applied defensive aproach in all games against top 4 this season so I do not see any difference now. My bet is Under 2.5@1.75. Brave ones may choose to play Arsenal. [TABLE=width: 640] [TR] [TD]15 Feb 2004[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]L[/TD] [TD=align: center]2-1[/TD] [TD]FA Cup[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]21 Feb 2004[/TD] [TD]Chelsea v Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]L[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-2[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]24 Mar 2004[/TD] [TD]Chelsea v Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-1[/TD] [TD]UEFA Champions League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]06 Apr 2004[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]W[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-2[/TD] [TD]UEFA Champions League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]12 Dec 2004[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]2-2[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]20 Apr 2005[/TD] [TD]Chelsea v Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]0-0[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]07 Aug 2005[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]W[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-2[/TD] [TD]FA Community Shield[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]21 Aug 2005[/TD] [TD]Chelsea v Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]W[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-0[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]18 Dec 2005[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]W[/TD] [TD=align: center]0-2[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]10 Dec 2006[/TD] [TD]Chelsea v Arsenal[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-1[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]25 Feb 2007[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]W[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-2[/TD] [TD]Carling Cup[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]06 May 2007[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]D[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-1[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]16 Dec 2007[/TD] [TD]Arsenal v Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: center]L[/TD] [TD=align: center]1-0[/TD] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
    WTF?????!!!!!!! :eek:eek:eek It´s like saying that Barcelona struggles against Almeria or Vallecano... Dude, seriously! Mourinho is unbeaten against Wenger in 9 matches...5 wins and 4 draws!
  9. Re: Europa League > Thursday March 13th 2.5 for Tottenham represents great value imo. Jorge Jesus said he´ll do what he´s been doing in Europe this year...rotate the squad. In the previous years Benfica took the lead in the Portuguese league and ended up loosing twice for Porto for bad team management. This year they wont make the same mistake..."the priority is the league", said Jorge Jesus...he assumed some changes, though not as much as against PAOK. I think Tottenham at home will deliver...might even consider the handicap -1. GL

  10. Re: International Friendlies > March 5th - 6th Paulo Bento said the players should enjoy the game and not worry about the result. He left some players out, like GK Rui Patricio and CB Bruno Alves. Ronaldo and Varela shouldn´t play the whole match. Cameroon arrived with no simpathy at all..they totally ignored the press. I think Cameroon will take it serious, Portugal will play it slow and avoid injuries. Cameroon as a physical type of play and as Portugal usually screws up in friendly matches im against my country today. I usually dont bet on friendly matches but will take a shot and control the bet in-play if possible Lay Portugal 1.38 Long shot: Cameroon to win 11.5

  11. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 About Porto and Benfica. Wait for in play. Porto as usual will play it slow, also will miss Varela and Jackson. It has been raining all day, the pitch wont be in the perfect conditions...If the odds for Porto reaches 1.9 (probably will) take it...Guimaraes is a hard place to play, all the "big three" usually struggle but end up winning. The same aplies for Benfica...if you like combos, take that low odd for Benfica otherwise wait for in-play, if the price goes up to 1.5-1.6 take it aswell. Cant imagine another result other than a win for Benfica. However i think they will score and control the match. In the last three years, Jorge Jesus messed things up because he thought he could play all season at the high speed he likes. After two matches for Europa League, Benfica will get the job done but will be happy with 1-0. GL

  12. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Sporting without Adrien and Montero, Braga with a new coach. Adrien is big blow for Sporting but Montero even being the top scorer, i dont think so. Slimani proved for more than once, that he is a good striker...Montero is totally overrated.. After Porto defeat last sunday Sporting will be even more confident. Sporting at home with a price around evens, is a pure gift. Take it with high stakes. GL

  13. Re: Europa League > Thursday February 27th Well i just spotted what i consider a huge value bet and so im on it with a triple dime. Porto is the still the team with most corners on the Champions League, despite having played only 6 matches...they have 51 corners the same number as Bayern..average 6.5 a match. First leg agains Frankfurt i went on over 9.5 and lost as Porto had only 5 corners but Frankfurt only 1. Porto corners this season in european matches: Austria - Porto: 5-5 Porto - Atl Madrid: 6-3 Porto - Zenit: 7-7 Zenit - Porto: 3-6 Porto - Autria: 14-3 Atl Madrid - Porto: 4-13 Europe League: Porto - Eintracht: 5-1 Only in two matches Porto drew in number of corners. In terms of possesion, Porto had 50-50 in Madrid, lost agains Zenit at home becuse they played with men for one hour, but in the other 5 matches Porto also won in terms of ball possesion. Porto is known for that..they like to control the game, the problem is that this year they play a very slow football and they miss the quality of Moutinho and James Rodriguez...but still...Porto uses to keep the ball. That is a fact. Another fact is that Porto plays with wingers...Varela and Quaresma are in good shape...like i said before i think Porto will dominate the match, control the ball and play by the wings as they use to do...if Frankfurt parks the bus as i expect, we´ll see Porto playing the whole match in the offensive midfield with Varela and Quaresma trying to creat chances. Porto corner handicap -1 2.00 @ Bet365 Good luck

  14. Re: Europa League > Thursday February 27th As a porto fan, i can confirm the disapointment of the fans...this is the worst season in years. Vitor Pereira also screwed things up, but in the end he won 2 leagues. However this season i cant see that happening as Porto keeps playing an awful football and even at home they lost their power. A 5 years streak without a defeat came to an end last sunday agains Estoril...in the champions league where Estadio do Dragao used to be a fortress, 2 defeats and a poor draw agains Austria Viena...this Porto is not the same, the season is a total disgrace, Paulo Fonseca will leave soon or in the end of the season. However i remember Vitor Pereira being in the same position, and all of the sudden he managed to beat Dinamo Kiev in Ukraine and stayed till the end to win the portuguese league. This being said, i think Porto may achieve qualification, but i guess it will be something like 0-1...Frankfurt is missing Rode, they will try to hold on their defense, but Porto has no need to go "gung-ho" as we all know there is a diference in quality and the goal may appear at any moment. Frankfurt had two goal chances in first leg and scored two goals...lucky result. Like someone said before, Porto is used to play against teams that park the bus...i think Frankfurt will try to do this and the game will be boring. I think Porto will dominate the match, try to score but with no rush, as a 0-1 is good enough. My advise would be to leave it for in play. GL

  15. Re: Crystal Palace v Hull City > Tuesday January 28th I have no reasonable argument that supports my bet, im just going with it because i never play unders, so i love to play overs on such high odds. Both teams struggle to score, in fact Palace is the worst attack of the league with only 14 goals scored and only in 2 matches out of 22 they managed to score more than once. At home Palace had 8 unders out of 11, and Hull away another 8 out of 11...so, is statiscally the best option. However my experience in betting tells me this is the type of match that sometimes i screw things up...so, i like to go against the tide, i like to bet when i think the streaks and statistics change. Palace has another "must-win" match, Hull on the other hand started to slow down and it is time to get back on track. With Jelavic and Shane Long they get more power upfront and i believe they will score today. This is just a huntch, i cant say more than this...but im predicting something like 3-2 or 2-3...something totally unexpected. Im going with Over 4.5 12.5 888sport

  16. Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Olhanense - Vitoria Guimarães I rate Olhanense as one of the worst teams in the league. However i do think they have some quality players, they lack a good management. They are with the third coach so far, an italian guy. Olhanense has a lot of foreign players where Per Kroldrup (danish international) is probably their most valuable member. They are finally playing in their own stadium, something that the fans has been asking since the beginning of the league. Last match they beat Setubal after trailing by 0-1. They didn´t play great football but the diference in motivation was highly noticed. Playing again in front of their fans, with new coach, i think they will go for the win. On the other side, Guimarães interrupted a good run of two away victories and 4 clean sheets in a row with a 3-0 defeat against their big rival Braga...Braga were all over the place, totally dominated Guimarães. Today Guimarães will try to bounce back to keep chasing European spots...they know Olhanense is a side they are able to beat, but as i said before i think the game wont be as easy as odds might reflect cause Olhanense will give it a go. I think both teams are able to score and i predict something like 1-2, 1-1, 2-1. OVER 2 1.862 Pinnacle

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