cambroia
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Posts posted by cambroia
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Re: Chelsea v Sporting CP > Wednesday December 10th Sporting misses Nani, and both wingers, Cedric and Jefferson. They concedeed in all matches, while Chelsea scored in all of them. Huge task for Sporting with all these missings. Chelsea also misses some players but the gap in quality is still big. I took Chelsea a couple days ago at 1.81. Will maybe go for goals inplay, depending on the Maribor-Schalke match. If both Chelsea and Schalke scores first, we might have a goal fest in Stamford Bridge as Sporting will have to go gung-ho on Mourinho's team. GL to all
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Re: Benfica v Zenit Saint-Petersburg > Tuesday September 16th Odds for Benfica are a joke. I layed them heavily and will wait for live betting to close the trade. Funny facts: Villas Boas is Jesus worst nightmare...a couple os seasons ago, Villas Boas beat Jesus 3-1 in matches with an overall score of 12-4. Porto won 5-0 in the league, then won again 2-1 in Lisbon, where in case of victory they would be champions. Then, after loosing 2-0 in Dragao for the Portuguese Cup, Villas Boas managed to beat Benfica again in Lisbon by 3-1. Porto won Supercup, League, Cup and Europa League. Hulk was Porto's star. Now they also have Garay, Witsel, and Javi Garcia, three of the best players Benfica had in the last decade. I can only understand that the odds are so low because Hulk is doubtfull. Even so, i dont rate Benfica as a 1.9 favourite. Both coaches know each other perfectly...Villas Boas has the edge as he has a better team and because Jesus in the Champions league always screws things up. GL to all
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Re: Ligue 2 > August 8th & 9th Thumbs up for Meatman...amazing as usually!
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Re: Group D - Uruguay v Costa Rica > Saturday June 14th Costa Rica misses Saborio...huge blow in the attack.
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Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Im curious to read more news about Argentina...No Tevez and a defense with Rojo and Demichelis? Easy lay... The portuguese squad is a joke...i hope Portugal doesn´t need to make too much subs...get the starting XIX playing the whole match, otherwise they will get beat by Iran if they face each other! If the starting XIX is fit, with Ronaldo, Pepe, Coentrao in good shape, Portugal might be hard to crack...they will defend, defend, defend, and defend a bit more against Germany...Germany wont be bored with a draw aswell, cause both teams now that winning the group means they might face Brasil in order to reach the final...will be interesting to see how Low and Bento will approach the match. I rate Brasil as top favourites...they won the Confed Cup, they finnally have "magic" in the squad again, with Neymar...Thiago Silva is the CB they missed in the last big tournaments, Paulinho and Willian have an amazing pace and europe experience...big quality, playing at home...i hope they loose cause i hate Scolari, but i think they are favourites. German and Spain should have a word to say...Uruguai, Portugal and Belgium will be tough to break. If both German and Brasil wins the group, only one can reach the final...if Belgium wins the group, they will most probably face Germany or Portugal...interesting to watch this.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 sorry...didn´t have the chance to post again before the matches, but the underdogs delivered well...Arouca conceded at 87' so the loss should have been minimized. Benfica is still putting up a fight... cheers
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 huge value on the underdogs in this final round. i dont usually bet this time of the season, and when i do i use lower stakes...but i see great value on all underdogs mainly Benfica, Setubal and Arouca...will try to post some thoughts around mid-day.
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 mate, i didn´t say you were lying...i just said the odds were wrongly placed by the bookie...on the 1X2 Maritimo openned on Bet365 at 3.00...how do you explain that the DNB is 6.00??? clear mistake...but lets hope maritimo wins and the bet doesn´t get canceled...GL cheers
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14
The odds on Maritimo B is a clear mistake...no way that bet will be valid. Agree with the draw on Arouca - Gil Vicente...is one of my bets for tomorrow...0-0 at 9.00 is worth a shot as the draw suits both teams! GLBack to the Portuguese League betting. Two bets for now. Nacional x Sporting: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 (Unibet) for a 0.75 stake Both Sporting and Nacional achieved outstanding results in terms of expectations. Nacional was expected to perform well and end mid-table, but actually achieved Europa League qualification, while Sporting wanted the 3rd place for CL play-off spot. Instead, Sporting eventually fought hard for the championship, losing to a much better Benfica at the end, but achieving the 2nd place for direct CL qualification is a big achievement for a team that's full of young talent and that surpassed a big financial crisis. However, Leonardo Jardim (Sporting coach) already advised that the team is not on vacations, and revealed that he wants the 3 points. He might do one or two changes, but I expect a good Sporting side, with no pressure at all. Nacional's manager said that still feels motivation within his team while they want to see themselves to other teams for the transfer market beginning. Nacional is a very hard team to beat, and I'm not sure that Sporting could manage to do it. But I can't see them losing as well, so a draw might seem okay. However, I'm not willing to go for that risk but I do believe that both teams will fight hard enough for the win. No pressure at all will help in free-flowing as well. Nacional usually score at home and have some great counter-attacking processes. Sporting plays a very effective football and will surely know how to dismantle Nacional's defensive line. I think Over 2.5 @ 1.85 has a touch of value, so I'm taking it. Arouca x Gil Vicente: Draw @ 3.10 (bet365) for a 0.35 stake This one is just about avoiding relegation. Both teams are with 28 points, way ahead of getting relegated. Still, they are still not safe. Paços de Ferreira winning both of their games while Arouca or Gil Vicente both losing them could see them miserably fail and end up in 15th place, which gives a play-off spot against the 3rd placed team in Second Division. Plus, if Arouca still draws this one and Paços wins both games, they have full disavantadge in direct confrontation (0-0 3-1 for Paços) if Gil Vicente eventually wins on sunday or draws on matchday 30. Then how would both teams save their seasons? That's right...a draw. With a draw, both teams would reach 29 points, making it impossible for Paços to save themselves, as with a 29 points tie, a mini-league between 3 teams is the tie-breaker. And considering a draw, Gil Vicente would have 7 points, Arouca 5, and Paços 4. I do think Arouca will have the edge here, but I wouldn't be surprised if both teams settled for a draw and avoid risking no more for the final matchday in one week. Arouca is actually needing some money as well as rumours also talk about financial problems there...so why not a draw?? -
Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Sunday April 27th
F' cking Mourinho....the guy is not the special nor the happy one..he's the "only one"...Do you really think Mourinho will give up on the premier league??? I dont think so....Mourinho is known for his mind games...and for getting a result when everyone thinks we will fail! Believing in all that has been written about this game it's like assuming that Mourinho will handle the title to Liverpool. He still has a chance...he knows that if he beats Liverpool, they still have a chance..so, why should we assume Mourinho will field a B team? Is he dumb? Does he not want to win the title? Will Mourinho talk with his players and say: "guys, if we beat Liverpool we still have chance to win the title, but the best is to rotate the squad and to think about Atlético as we dont have many chances against Liverpool. Non-sense. Mourinho will rotate as he misses some players, he will give the control to Liverpool like he uses to do in away games against big teams...but then he will try the counter to win the match...simple as that...Liverpool still has to travel to play in-form Crystal Palace and in football anything can happen. Everyone can argue that Liverpool has a better team, plays better, has a fully fit squad, and on the other hand, Chelsea is a weaker team and has some missings...those are some acceptable arguments to justify a win from Liverpool...now assuming Mourinho will give up on the game...imo that is pure non-sense. Anyway...i think Liverpool will win this, but only because they are better than Chelsea...although i wont be surprised if Mourinho pulls a trick and gives Liverpool a bad day...so in this situations i normally avoid betting...i will just enjoy one of the matches that can perfectly become the match of year. Gl to all. -
Re: Sky Bet Championship > April 25th & 26th
would also to read something about this match..any info, anyone? bournemouth with nothing to play for... nottingham on the other hand has a chance to keep chasing reading and brighton and achieve the playoffs...reading has a tough match against doncaster that still fights to avoid relegation...and last match of the season is nottingham - brighton. nottingham at 3.7 kinda surprises me...Bournemouth - Nottingham why such an advantage. guests do not want to get in the playoffs? -
Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Sunday April 27th
Do you really think Mourinho will give up on the premier league??? I dont think so....Mourinho is known for his mind games...and for getting a result when everyone thinks we will fail! Believing in all that has been written about this game it's like assuming that Mourinho will handle the title to Liverpool. He still has a chance...he knows that if he beats Liverpool, they still have a chance..so, why should we assume Mourinho will field a B team? Is he dumb? Does he not want to win the title? Will Mourinho talk with his players and say: "guys, if we beat Liverpool we still have chance to win the title, but the best is to rotate the squad and to think about Atlético as we dont have many chances against Liverpool. Non-sense. Mourinho will rotate as he misses some players, he will give the control to Liverpool like he uses to do in away games against big teams...but then he will try the counter to win the match...simple as that...Liverpool still has to travel to play in-form Crystal Palace and in football anything can happen. Everyone can argue that Liverpool has a better team, plays better, has a fully fit squad, and on the other hand, Chelsea is a weaker team and has some missings...those are some acceptable arguments to justify a win from Liverpool...now assuming Mourinho will give up on the game...imo that is pure non-sense. Anyway...i think Liverpool will win this, but only because they are better than Chelsea...although i wont be surprised if Mourinho pulls a trick and gives Liverpool a bad day...so in this situations i normally avoid betting...i will just enjoy one of the matches that can perfectly become the match of year. Gl to all.Liverpool focused on the league, Chelsea focused on Champions League. Keeping it simple, Liverpool win @1.7. -
Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th
I guess you found your own answer. :)Chelsea to find the net with that line-up + anaemic Mourinho tactics? But' date=' I understand what you're trying to say. However,[b'] the past tells me not to touch overs in UCL SF's, been burned before. I think both these SF's will be good over two legs, two even ties. We will see if Benfica rises, league is won, two club legends died recently, will that European curse finally break? Juve of course with the added motivation of the final being at home. The other tie is hard to pick, Sevilla on form but Valencia is more than capable (on paper they're very close) and Pizzi is an excellent coach imo. -
Re: Europa League Semi-Finals > Thursday April 24th
I dont know where you got this from...maybe if you consider the the 8 matches he played in Benfica B...or you are probably referring to the goal he scored against Porto in the portuguese cup. Apart from that i cant understand why someone would consider "has done well" a player that played 92 minutes in the first team the whole season for the league. Vs Rio Ave: in at 90+2 vs Maritimo: in at 90 vs Paços: in at 88 vs Maritimo: in at 90 vs Olhanense: played whole match In the cup he played 90 minutes against Penafiel (II league) and 90 minutes against Porto where he scored a great goal. Funny story about André Gomes..he was called up to the national squad by Paulo Bento in February 2013 after playing only 360 minutes for Benfica. All of the sudden Jorge Mendes announces that his big friend Peter Lim (related to the buyin of Valencia) buys Rodrigo and André Gomes for 30M. 15M for a player that played 92 minutes this season. Now i know why he was called up to the national squad...key words are Jorge Mendes. Reminds me of Nelson Oliveira, striker, a couple of minutes for Benfica, no goals scored, called up to the Euro 2012...agent??? i guess you know the answer. As for Maxi Pereira, he is not "a very strong replacement"...he is the strongest...Silvio is not a miss at all...the guy played a couple of matches this season..Maxi Pereira is best right winger of the portuguese league for years. Salvio and Gaitan are huge misses...Sulejmani will probably play. Benfica at home is very strong...they didn't conceed a single goal in the secound half of the season in the portuguese league. Though, european competitions are a total diferent thing..Olympiakos scored, PSG scored, Tottenham scored twice and could have scored some more... Juventus has enough power to score in any stadium but im a bit concerned about the way Conte might approach the game. Jesus said this game wont decide anything as the second leg is the most important match..Conte surely thinks the same and will probably be happy with a draw. I think Juventus will give up on controlling the match and Vidal is a huge miss... Benfica will control but will miss Salvio and Gaitan, Markovic is a great player that can make the difference, but if Juventus defends well things will be complicated. Gun to my head i would say 1-0 to Benfica, but all depends on the first half-hour...if Benfica scores in the first 30 minutes, i think Juventus will go for the goal and will probably get it...1-1, 2-1 also results that i dont rule out. That being said, i see value on Benfica at 2.8 on Betfair...will probably happen the same as yesterday on Real - Bayern...Real price 2.4 went to 2.7 after 20 minutes...if my predictions is correct about Benfica controlling the match, this 2.8 may well go down in the first 20 minutes aswell. GL to allGaitan and Fejsa have been left out of the Benfica squad. Fejsa didn't play at the weekend but Gaitan has gone missing from no where and is a massive loss for Benfica. Andre Gomes has done well over the season and has good physical and technical attributes but can be a little slow around the pitch. He's solid back up for Fejsa but Gaitan on the other hand is irreplaceable. Ruben Amorim is decent all round player and will likely come in here but he lacks those game changing qualities we've seen in Gaitan over the season. The more defensive midfield may have its benefits but more pressure will be on Benfica's forwards to perform now. -
Re: Real Madrid v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 23rd
Since they won the title Guardiola often played with Starke, Contento, Van Buyten, Martinez (rotating, like i said)...and Hojbjerg, Salahhi, Weiser and Raeder (kids like i said). So, i dont see where the misleading is...i just stated a fact! Anyway...will take a break from posting around here as it feels i just say crap... Be back soon..GL to all!Isn't that really misleading though? I don't see how Bayern have been playing the kids etc ... Unless its lost in translation :unsure either way I think its wrong to suggest they've been fielding kids. -
Re: Real Madrid v FC Bayern München > Wednesday April 23rd Bayern has been playing in slow motion since they won the title...their main focus is the Champions League...Guardiola has been rotating the squad fielding a bunch of kids...Bayern should be fresh.. On the other hand Real with a lot of troubles...Bale and Ronaldo not in the perfect shape, La Liga is still to be discussed... In Old Trafford i was with Man Utd as i predicted Guardiola would be happy with a 0-0...well, today Guardiola knows they are facing a powerfull attack and most probably wont be able to get a 0-0...also Guardiola knows how to beat Real, as he did big time in the past seasons...i think Bayern will have a go and score and the match will be open. Agree with the over so i took it yesterday at 1.75...as for the handicap, yesterday Bayern +0.25 was 1.79, today is 1.86...can see some value here as i dont rate Real such favourites at 2.46. GL
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd
Aydi said this: If you gave me even money on a team that had 62% possession and 26 attempts on goals every day I just replied saying Atletico is to far away from that...i would be glad either to take a team that has 62% possession.. we were talking about Atletico here, so why speaking in general now?!! Anyway, im done with this...GL with your bets! Will keep following your insights closely... CheersYou totally misunderstood Aidymac's point with this reply. He's saying if you say to him a team is going to have 62% possession and 26 shots on goal at even money. He will take that bet every time it is presented to him. He said nothing about Atletico having 62% possession in their matches. It has nothing to do with Atletico. It's just a general example. -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd
I agree that Atlético is in a good shape...i never said the opposite. They are definitely one of the best teams at the moment...the only thing i say, and that seems to bother people around here is that they have been lucky and their style of playing doesn´t fit a TOP team. I said this before: i give Simeone a lot of credit for the good job...he look like Mourinho, putting the team together and getting the best of his players...the guy is amazing doing that...but the mentality of Atletico doesn´t fit a top team. Before both matches against Barcelona there were only 5 teams worst than Atlético in terms of possession...how can you explain that Granada and Celta de Vigo has more possession than Atlético???? I made a nice quid this year with them using a scoring system...but i saw a lot of matches with Atletico struggling a lot...Zenit - Atletico, Porto - Atletico, Atletico -Porto, Milan- Atletico...all lucky matches...If Milan had the luck Atletico had in Barcelona, in Madrid they would play like Chelsea, and Atletico wouldn´t probably be here anymore....in Barcelona, tremendous luck with that amazing shot by Diego...well, football is a bit about luck, but only a bit! I give credit to Simeone cause he doesn´t have a great team but achieves results like one...but usually that doesn´t last longer. IMO Bayern, Barcelona, Real, Chelsea, Juventus, Liverpool, all of those are a level above them...but as we know in football what counts is what happens in the field... Atletico can perfectly win the Champions, Porto did so in 2004...the achievement will be exactly the same: one in a million!They will probably win La Liga, and in my opinion will be in the Champions League final. Have the best defence in La Liga and in the Champions League. Completely dominated the parked bus tonight and we all know it is extremely hard to score against a side that have 10 men behind the ball. As I said, Chelsea now have to come out and attack at Stamford Bridge, THEN we'll see how good Atletico are and I'll put my neck on the line and say they will definitely get to the champions league final against a very poor Chelsea outfit. I don't see how Atletico are over-rated when they were never really rated in the first place? What they have done this season has exceeded expectations a million fold. I never said anything about Atletico being "great", I simply said Atletico at Evens was the correct bet tonight as they completely dominated and if that game was played under those circumstances 10 times, Mourinho would probably only get his 0-0 twice if he was lucky. One question: Name 3 teams in Europe better than Atletico? -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd
Atletico was still the correct bet' date=' don't care what anybody else says after the event. If you gave me even money on a team that had 62% possession and 26 attempts on goals every day, I'd take it happily every day. In fact, Chelsea's line up made the Atletico bet an even better bet in my opinion as they were clearly not there to try to win the game. Mourinho got his 0-0, fair play to him, but he now has to come out and try to attack an Atletico side that are extremely physical and defend really well, and I still personally make Atletico favourites to qualify.[/quote'] Ok..now give me 10 games of atlético with 62% of possession under Simeone management! Said thi against milan, Barcelona and now chelsea..atlético is tottally overrated..Simeone is a good coach, atlético is a good team..they are not great imo -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Chelsea > Tuesday April 22nd Both coaches will give up on controlling the match. Simeone does it even against Osasuna, Mourinho does it in this kind of matches. In France Chelsea was unlucky conceding an early goal and then controlled first half. I think they are perfectly capable of doing the same. However Atlético today needs to attack, unlike the previous round that they played first leg in Barcelona. Today Simeone knows they need to score and Mourinho will be pleased enough to give Atletico the control of the match and go for the counter-attack. Ivanovic is huge blow, also Hazard, however Diego Costa wont be in the perfect shape. At first sight i would go with 0-0...but if a goal is scored in the first half this can also turn into a goal fest. Either way i think Mourinho will do another trick and get the job done, as usual....in the big games, Mourinho´s players always raises their performance to another level... The odds for Atletico are a joke...im amazed that in a forum like this, where most users look for value, most of the people are going with such low odds.. GL to all
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Great call on Belenense JumeSyn. Cant imagine another result other than a victory of Benfica...they will have 30.000 fans...arouca is giving up of the game to get a big revenue...just a shame that this kind of things still happen in Portugal...anyway...Benfica will have a walk in the park today...of course the odds are a joke, so you better skip it! As for Braga - Porto...another NO BET...no result will ever surprise me...didn´t even look at odds but my call would be Over 2.5...will follow it inplay. GL
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Cant see valeu on the Nacional - Maritimo match. I think it will be a low scoring affair..both coaches trying to avoid defeat more than trying to win. On Belenenses - Guimarães im with Guimarães. Belenenses improved with the new coach, but they are still one of worst teams in the league and will get relegated imo...guimaraes with no winnings in the last 7 matches, only two points...two teams in different trends..normally i screw things up in occasions like this..so my experience tells me to go with the opposite..Guimarães playing with no stress, dont agree with Belenenses being favourite here. Guimaraes DNB at evens seems good to me. Rio Ave - Olhanense Skip it... Sporting - Gil Vicente...i think Sporting will trash Gil..be back later after taking a look at odds closely
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 Going with Over 2 today on Academica - Setubal...both teams safe from relegation, perfect match for a show off from coaches and players. Both coaches have "vanity" written on their foreheads...i can imagine a good game, with both teams attacking and looking to get a result... If this game was played on the 10th round or something...it would scream 0-0...but under these conditions...worth a shot. GL
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Re: Portugal > Liga ZON Sagres > 2013/14 I see no value on Braga..they have a lot of influent players injured, Eder, Alan, Rafa, Micael...ridiculous odds...but i have the feeling they will beat Olhanense. Anyway..skip it. As for Paços, they are very motivated, as Sporting is. Bebe is in such an amazing moment and still dreaming with the World Cup and the return to Man Utd or a jump to a big team. Both teams motivated but i think both will be happy with a draw. Sporting will try to win but Jorge Costa know´s how to get a team organised and defend well. I advise you to skip it or bet inplay if you have the chance to follow the match. Gun to my head: Olhanense 0 - Braga 1 Paços 0 - Sporting 0 Regards
FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk > Wednesday December 10th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk > Wednesday December 10th Porto has been rotating the team every single match. Im a Porto fan, and the biggest concern we feel about Lopetegui is the fact that is taking so long to define the starting 11. At this time Porto has 6-7 regulars, in which 5 of them might not play today: danilo, casemiro and brahimi definitely out, martinez and tello maybe on bench. My prediction is goals. Over 2.5 2.10 and over 2.75 2.48. GL