[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013 The tips on here are 2-0 in favour of Murray at the moment and I find that baffling. Djokovic was around 1.14 to beat Del Potro and is around 1.6 to beat Murray. Why the massive difference in prices? Is it simply because Murray is a member of the 'Big Four?' To me, the odds on Djokovic should have been around the 1.3 mark in both the Del Potro and Murray matches. Bookies seem reluctant to offer someone from the 'Big Four' at any sort of decent odds - in a game like this I think that provides us with big value on the favourite, ie Djokovic. Murray's record in Grand Slam finals is 1-5. Djokovic's is (I think) 6-4. If you take the 'new Djokovic' (from 2011 onwards) his record is 6-2. What is the Grand Slam record between these two? I can only think of one Murray win. Djokovic is totally dominant in the head-to-heads and the only major win which Murray had between them came with some serious help from the wind anyway. Granted, grass is the one surface Murray COULD compete with Djokovic on. However, I feel Djokovic is on top of his game on grass and Murray is not at his best on grass at the moment. I think Djokovic will match 2011 in terms of the specific Grand Slams he wins this year. 3-2 Djokovic would be my prediction if pushed. I already have big money riding on Djokovic (effectively a free bet, as I get my stake back if Murray wins) from the start of the tournament and I think I'll have bets on the result being either 3-1 Djokovic or 3-2 Djokovic tomorrow.

[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Back N.Djokovic/T.Berdych - Over 3.5 sets for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365 I can't really see Berdych winning this, but, at the same time, I think that he has enough quality to take a set off the world's number one. I have seen plenty of their recent matches and Berdych has been fairly competitive in virtually all of them, so this looks like a good bet at evens in all fairness. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/djokovic-vs-berdych-betting-tomas-berdych-can-take-a-set-off-the-world-s-number-one-20130703 Back J.Janowicz/L.Kubot - Over 3.5 sets for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power A surprising quarter-final to say the least, but there you go. Both can serve big and both can have lapses in concentration, which should be enough for this bet to go through, especially since there is a good chance that there are going to be some nerves involved given the occasion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kubot-vs-janowicz-betting-jerzy-janowicz-might-be-in-for-a-tough-ride-against-lukasz-kubot-20130703 Back A.Murray/F.Verdasco - Over 3.5 sets for a 4/10 stake at 2.37 with Bet365 Verdasco has been playing some outstanding stuff in recent days and, although this will be a massive step up in terms of quality, I can see him doing something against Murray in that sort of form. Murray has not really been tested yet, so it will be interesting to see how well is he going to cope with everything - and you simply cannot rule out a blip or two for him in this match. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/verdasco-vs-murray-betting-the-in-form-spaniard-has-what-it-takes-to-trouble-the-local-hero-on-wednesday-20130703

I think betting on Djokovic, Murray or Janowicz to lose a set is risky, let alone all three! I'd rather be on the 3-0 bets to be honest. We'll see how it pans out though.

[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013 The outright prices on Del Potro in particular and also Berdych to some extent look huge, I'm surprised they haven't been reduced although I suppose in some way their task hasn't changed with Tsonga, Federer, Nadal out inthe other half. I'm on Djokovic with Murray cover from pre-tournament so I think I'll lump some serious cash on Del Potro now. 28/1 is massive, worth an each way look. Also, barring injury Murray will reach the final, do any bookies have odds on this? 1/3 or higher would probably be backable.

[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Marin Cilic vs Kenny de Schepper Cilic to win 3-1 set betting 11/4 skybet he is playing great at the moment and could go far but sometimes loses a set further in the tournament Stephane Robert vs Benoit Paire Paire to win 3-1 set betting 11/4 skybet lost a set in the first round not really his best surface so expect him lose another set Steve Darcis vs Lukasz Kubot Darcis to win 3-1 set betting 3/1 skybet 5 sets 12/5 skybet with an impressive win the last round either he will play great again or play badly i think he has got great game for grass so i think four or five sets

You know there are other possible scores apart from 3-1? Do you feel this is a profitable long term strategy?

[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013

Murray won in 5 sets against Federer at the AUS Open this year, I believe. Let's not forget that Federer didn't win against top players last year as well, got to Wimbledon and crushed the opposition. Those facts are irrelevant when one is playing on his best surface. On the top of his game, Federer is still unbeatable on grass. Too bad that for now, Federer is only on top of his game for like, 2/3 games per year :rollin

I'm not sure about this. I'll say it now and I'll repeat it if as I expect Murray and Federer meet in the semis. Murray will beat Federer and probably quite comfortably. I could be wrong but that's the way I see it. You have to remember that Murray was beating Federer in last year's final when it was an outdoor grass match and Murray has demolished Federer several times since then. The match reaching 5 sets in Australia flattered Federer big time, I remember at the time thinking how one-sided a five set match it was (Murray had 4 more breaks of serve than Federer did in the match and Federer managed to win the two tie breaks.) Wimbledon is obviously Federer's best shot at winning yet another Grand Slam but the way Murray destroys Federer's second serve, I just don't see how Federer could beat Murray over 5 sets.

[Wimbledon 2013]

Re: Wimbledon 2013

I recommended Errani -5.5 games in the handicap today against Puig but actually backed the total match games under 19.5 which I though was safer and got lucky. Sorry if I mislead anybody? I also did the overs in the Verdasco/Malisse match but didn't have time to do a proper writeup, sorry. I was shocked at Nadal going out. Don't think the Djoker will win now. Nadal's exit has opened the door for Federer who if he lasts and doesn't have a long match should beat Murray and I'd fancy him against the Djoker on grass. Would even give Murray a great chance if he reaches the final. Anyway tomorrow.... Morita to beat Erakovic 11/5 SportingBet 2 players who can play on grass but havent done that well at Wimbledon so far usually only winning a round. Morita lost both grasscourt matches this year while Erakovic played well on clay and won a few rounds in Birmingham. However the H2H is 7-1 in favour of Morita and the only time Erakovic won was when Morita retired injured when 5-0 down on grass actually. Still there must be a huge hurdle to be overcome by Erakovic who has never beaten her in a completed match 10 points win Morita 11/5 SportingBet 10 point Accum Kerber 4/9 Pironkova 5/6 Hantuchova 4/9 Peng 4/7 Ladbrokes works out 5/1 Peng plays Medina Garrigues and leads the H2H 3-0 and is better on grass than her opponent. Pironkova has shown excellent form at Wimbledon the last 3 years and Pavlyuchenkova hasn't and didnt even play on grass this year. H2H 1-0 Pironkova. Hantuchova won Birmingham and loves grass. Zakopolova is ok on grass but is not long back from injury and still struggling. H2H 3-1 Hantuchova Kerber reached the semis last year while Mattek-Sands did well at the French. H2H 2-0 Mattek-Sands but she has a thigh injury and may struggle. Dolgopolov vs Elias under 29.5 games 5/6 Ladbrokes Dolgopolov although inconsistant sometimes is in a different league to Elias and should cover this line easily. Elias is a clay courter and playing for the first time on grass and I reckon he will struggle at this level 10 Points win Dolgopolov vs Elias total games under 29.5 5/6 Ladbrokes Others to consider tomorrow... Radwanska vs Meusberger - total games under 17.5. They played twice in 05 and 06 when Radwanska was young and inexperienced but won both in three sets. However Radwanska should win easily tomorrow. Meusberger is pretty average and spends most of her time on the challenger circuit and is not really used to the big stage. I think Aga will easily cover this line - odds around 5/6 Good Luck

Federer 'should beat Murray?' Where do you get that from? Murray has Federer's number nowadays and destroys his second serve and to a certain extent his game in general. Granted, grass would probably be Federer's best chance of beating Murray but I've already got their potential semi-final marked down as one of my best money-making chances of the tournament as the bookies will no doubt over-estimate Federer as usual based on his past, leaving us with very decent odds on Murray.