binomial
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Posts posted by binomial
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thanks. hasn't been often this season unfortunately.
going with
perth -7.5 1u
over 168.5 2u
talk gibson and petrie may not play and knight is out for perth i believe. gibson has looked terrible and disinterested most games so the back of him may see a lift from others.
perth will want to tune up for finals versus couldn't care less allstar like intensity, i think more of the latter.
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WNBL preview said Swords wasn't playing, but not sure they would know.
played Adelaide 2u, Melbourne missing at least 6 players supposedly and Adelaide have gotten the job done against the weaker teams since Standish.
thinking that losing to Canberra could jolt Perth in to action despite b2b, but havent played yet.
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Townsville v Sydney over 173.5
Jett should get 50+ layups and hopefully Childress turns it on in what could be his final game.
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Canberra +11.5
Seems a spot where they will come close to winning and blow it late.
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going with:
NZ -4
Illawarra -6.5
Illawarra over 185.5
Adelaide should bring the defence which usually leads to 20+ open dunks for the opposition. Illawarra should come to play with no game for about a week.
Whereas, not sure Melbourne will match NZ intensity with the Sunday game.
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going with Townsville and over.
Townsville are going the better for mine and Cairns are poor on the road. Seems a reasonable chance Townsville come to play as they nearly always have and Cairns are half hearted as they often are.
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Sydney -1.5
under 169.5
sydney know how to give up alot of points but just don't see alot of points in the depleted perth lineup.
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agree odds in tonight's game don't seem to factor in Penney out. playing adelaide +7.
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melbourne +2
hellish heat in adelaide may be a factor with short turnaround.
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taking sydney +4.5 seems too many.
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going with adeliade -9.5. they are far from someone to rely upon to cover as a big favourite, but Sydney are 8-14 against a line of -9.5 on the season and appear to have little motivation or ability at this point.
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seems a decent chance of a bounceback for nz and complacency/getting ahead of themselves for hawks, but +2.5 seems to much to resist the way they both teams have been going in recent weeks.
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nice call.
playing
Sydney +3
Melbourne +7
Sydney won at Melbourne and Bendigo in December and I think the extra days rest is pretty big here,.
Melbourne have been keeping it close and have beaten Bendigo twice so could go ok.
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Sydney look comfortably third but have no games against the bottom three remaining. This could easily be the start of the slide out of the four.
You got good prices as usual. Not sure I can play at 1.5.
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resurfacing of the million dollar fiasco could have them in poor spirits. although maybe jackson was the cancer and her leaving could lead to a new lease on...
my leans are sydney, seq and adelaide.
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i like those two also, but a bit concerned Canberra may quit after several close ones for no result.
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total didn't deserve to get their after the start but tough to lose due to them fouling when down 14 i think it was, was a bit harsh.
nice call on sydney. regret not seeing it.
going with:
perth -3
over 166
Assuming Prather is good to go, as I think he is pretty much there most important player now.
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Played under 175.5.
Sydney probably less impressive though. Both Perth and NZ only needed to wake up for about 5 minutes to win comfortably.
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Canberra +13.5
Melbourne game over 145
No real confidence in these two, but Canberra appear to be on the improve from very low place and dandenong have been variable.
Bendigo have been scoring well albeit against uptempo teams and feel melbourne due for an ouburst of competence.
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actually not correct i had illawarra -1.5 so that was 3.5 points.
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i lost 4 of 5 bets last night all by less than a basket
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Can't decide whether SEQ is a knife catch or smart play.
Leaning to the over.
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i think the low continuity/lack of long term players has a bit to do with it. the blow ins from gold coast have been their the longest bar creek without doing the research, and creek trys to sell himself to afl so isn't exactly heart and soul. NZ and Perth are pretty strong arguments for stability, plus their appears little interest or commitment. the half assed double team back court trap they were trying continually was giving townsville 4 on 3 and easy baskets.
also i think they have too many ordinary players and would be better off with a one or two better ones. getting rid of some of ebe, walker, petrie, creek and teys for a couple of better players would be better.
several of the wnbl sides seem to be doing fine with pretty much 7 player rotations.
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32/38 FT, 46 FG%, 3P% 42% but lose tot the mighty townsville??
NZ -13.5 $2
NZ over 170.5 1.5u
thinking this will be a fairly relaxed up and down affair with NZ around 100 and Sydney not around 100.
Illawarra -1.5 this feels a bit inflated but feel ok being on the team with Lisch, Penny and Ogilvy they way they are all playing a the moment.
NBL 2015/16
in NBA & Basketball Predictions
Posted
NZ +4.5 2u
Melbourne v NZ under 166.5 1.5u
NZ to win it $5.50
Not sure why Melbourne are a strong favourite. NZ lost by 1 in Melbourne on the flop and won the other 3, 2 of which were pretty meaningless the other Warrick was out.
If it is a finals grind tempo I think this clearly favours NZ.
Average scores for each team on the season 168 and 166 by my calc, so not much of a stretch for it to go under.