richard-westwood

Finally finished programming a dedicated all weather add on to my computer ratings .....solely dedicated to the all weather which should come in handy as the bad weather draws in .....just need to test it fully now and calibrate the difference in courses then hopefully it will help throw up a few winners ...if I can get some good runs ..even close I'll be happy ...just need to know I'm in right ballpark 
Today's 
405 wolv 
Necoleta  223 +3 
Kybosh   221 +2 
Kybosh could be an improver but computer is saying necoleta is best value ew bet at 7/1 so I'll play 
Necoleta 5pts ew 7/1 bet365

Still on the hunt for a Xmas bonus 
Bit early to back but I've finished the ratings 
Good man pat   243 +5 
Clondaw castle 238 +5 
Brelan das    235 +1 
Interesting results from the computer and not what I was expecting .....good man pat has only run once at chelt and didn't run very well but all other races he's had he looked very talented and has been gifted a low weight here on balance of his form and 16/1 looks very good value if that chelt run was just a blip ...
Clondaw castle is an interesting horse ...has always been raced around 2 mile and looks very talented ....the step up looks well within his range but it's unknown territory ...could well be the making of him ...also nicely weighted priced around 12/1 he looks fair value 
Brelan das isn't that well hccapped but has ew chances for Nicholls but I prefer the top 2 for the win .....I'll keep an eye on prices and back later in week or if prices start to change .....probably 10pts ew on both for a shot at a decent payout.... 
 

Good start ..wins easily ...definitely red 4th

Good start ..wins easily ...definitely red 4th

Good start ..wins easily ...definitely red 4th

Well it's closing on Xmas so time to ramp it up a bit and see if I can get some spending money ....rated this race and top two are clear of rest so a good place to start 
December handicap 
Theos charm  225 +4 
Ashutor 224 +3 
Ashutor 10pts ew 10/1 bet365
Theos charm 10pts ew 12/1 boyles 

Well it's closing on Xmas so time to ramp it up a bit and see if I can get some spending money ....rated this race and top two are clear of rest so a good place to start 
December handicap 
Theos charm  225 +4 
Ashutor 224 +3 
Ashutor 10pts ew 10/1 bet365
Theos charm 10pts ew 12/1 boyles 

Ratings
3 x 3 top 3 rated = 9 EW Doubles
Becher

 
Sefton

 

Becher Chase
9/10 FR or IRE Bred
We lose Regal Flow
8/10 Carried less than 11st
We lose top 5
8/10 Rated below 148
As above
7/10 Aged 9 or below
We lose Vieux Lion Rouge, Abolitionist, Mysteree
7/10 Had a prep run this season
We lose Ballydine, Kimberlite Candy
15/22 Finished in first 5 last time
We lose As De Mee, Walk In The Mill, Minellacelebration, Like The Sound
14/22 Not won beyond 3m1f
We lose Wandrin Star
 
Selections
Vintage Clouds 8/1 Betvictor
Mulcahys Hill 13/2 Hills

Grand Sefton
8/10 Aged 9 0r under
We lose Ultragold, Princeton Royale, Killaro Boy, Federici
9/10 Had a prep run this season
We lose Gold Present, Kimberlite Candy
8/10 FR or IRE Bred
We lose Kayf Adventure, Wishfull Dreaming
7/10 Rated 137 or more
We lose from Number 9 downwards
7/10 Carried 10st 12lbs or more
We lose Touch Kick
 
Selection
Flying Angel 5/1 Hills
Favourites week by the looks of it!!

Won

Ultragold won the Topham Chase twice around here plus a god second in this race in 2017, sure to get round at least

3rd again ...at least he ran his race 

Thought ahluck was gonna win at last ....3rd ew money 14/1 

205 fairy 
Ah littleluck  224
Wrong direction 223
Out sam  223 
Another tricky race so I'll just try 2pt ew all 3 at 13/2  8/1 and 14/1 bet365 

Just a few fun bets today while it's quiet ....
310 fairy ...absolute minefield....I can make a case for half the field ...hearts are trumps looks good value for 10lb pull with fav janidil ...but I'll take a chance on Articulum ew as he has shown vastly improved form over Chase and now returns to hurdles some 16lb or so lower so if he can retain even half his chase improvement he would be well hccapped.....also I can't ignore the complete outsider morga ...priced at 66/1 he has soft ground form ..low weight and decent 7lb claimer..making his price look huge in a 15 runner race ...so a small.ew 
Articulum 2pts ew 8/1 generally 
Morga 2pts ew 66/1 skyb

5th ew money 

225 newb 
Crooks peak   220
Elvis mail   220 
Joint top in this race ...wasn't gonna bother but decent prices considering so I'll play 
2x5pt wins 6/1 and 7/1 generally 

Some key trends:
20/20 had won 2+ times over fences 20/20 had won a class 1 or 2 20/20 had won in a field of 11+ runners 19/19 had won a 15k+ race Some "secondary" trends:
19/20 were aged 6-9 (exception last year - 10) 19/20 had finished 1-3 or failed to complete LTO (exception 2008 - 6th) 19/20 had run 14 times max over fences (exception 2008 - 29) 19/20 had run in a Graded race (exception 2003) 4 "qualifiers":: CABARET QUEEN (9/1) ELEGANT ESCAPE (11/1) DAKLONDIKE (33/1) BEWARE THE BEAR (50/1)

Doncaster off - again!! and probably on Saturday too!
 
Good card at Newbury
Nap: 800 K: Hassaad 7/4 bet365
Nb: 150 Nb: Kalashnikov 100/30 Corals

225 Nb: Black Op 5/2 bet365

Definitely on ice ...about 110 pts returned 

Definitely on ice ...about 110 pts returned 

Definitely on ice ...about 110 pts returned 

335 newb 
Potters hedger  225 
Champers on ice   223
Dolphin square  221 
Open race but top 2 here look overpriced ...dolphin square could run well and can't rule out but price is poor for betting purposes....
Potters hedger   5pts ew 10/1 Willh
Champers on ice 5pts ew 16/1 willh
 
 

335 newb 
Potters hedger  225 
Champers on ice   223
Dolphin square  221 
Open race but top 2 here look overpriced ...dolphin square could run well and can't rule out but price is poor for betting purposes....
Potters hedger   5pts ew 10/1 Willh
Champers on ice 5pts ew 16/1 willh