real55555

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Agree with you on the luck factor. The thing is luck can work for you and work against you, so like giraldi has said, over long time the luck factor would have no significant effect on the final outcome. 

An uneventful race, with very few overtaking options and only the Grosjean and Perez incidents provided the highlight point. In running betting doesn't yield any winning outcomes as Hamilton basically led from the start till the end but things could've been interesting had Vettel not held up behind Perez, or the tyres went down the hill (as experts said it'll be tight on a one stopper for drivers starting on the hypers). Have got a few bets on Vettel at the start after he pitted for the undercut strategy as well as a few bets on Daniel as he ran very long in his first stint, so anytime after he pitted if there is a safety car and if any of the front runners have to pit again due to tyre issues, he'd be well placed to steal the win as he has made his stop. Got Daniel at x41 and x51 at one time. 
Maybe we can look into races where overtaking on track is extremely difficult, and a one stop strategy is on the borderline in terms of tyre degradation (so teams have to nurse their tyres throughout the race, resulting in poor lap times), then we can look at the fastest lap market for mid-tier teams who started outside the top 10 (normally they'd start on harder tyres so they can run longer as starting on the softer compounds would not help a lot in overtaking due to track characteristics, and switch to the softer compounds in the second stint to aid their overtaking over cars who are on older and harder tyres). I've bet on Ricciardo, Alonso and Magnussen for the fastest lap and very lucky to have Magnussen as the winner at x101.
Reason being if Ric stays 6th, most likely he will have a very big gap to the 7th placed car for him to have a free pitstop to the ultras or hypers and hope for a safety car or just hope someone's tyres to drop off. 
For Alonso, we've seen if he has a bad race, he just doesn't care anymore, he will just switch to softer tyres and try to get the fastest lap.
For Magnussen, the only thing is because the Haas is a top10 car in the field, and starting last means he is most likely to start on the softs before switching to hypers or ultras. But if I'm not mistaken he put on new sets of hypers in the last few laps since he was going to finish last anyway. 
Nevertheless, I am surprised as to how much the front runners are nursing their tyres to the extend the Mclaren and Haas' fastest lap is a sizeable margin to the fastest laps of the top 3 teams.

Agree with you on the luck factor. The thing is luck can work for you and work against you, so like giraldi has said, over long time the luck factor would have no significant effect on the final outcome. 

1. Fulham vs Watford - Watford DNB
The value will lies in the DNB market for Watford. Their first loss came against Manchester United in their previous game but they did not play that poorly. They are one of the in form teams at the moment and I think they are good enough to at least come away with a draw in this game. 
 
2. Burnley vs Bournemouth - Bournemouth DNB
Bournemouth have performed quite well so far this season, dispatching Leicester easily in their previous game, and up against a Burnley side that is seriously lacking form at the moment, I think they'd be able to at least avoid defeat in this game. Value lies in the DNB market for Bournemouth. 
 
3. Arsenal vs Everton - Over 2.5 goals
The value bet in this game probably lies in the over 2.5 goals market. Both teams are very good in their attacks, and both teams have mediocre defending. So either this game will be a goal fest or a trouncing by Arsenal as I feel that they should be able to score at least 3 goals in this game if they perform to their calibre. 

An uneventful race, with very few overtaking options and only the Grosjean and Perez incidents provided the highlight point. In running betting doesn't yield any winning outcomes as Hamilton basically led from the start till the end but things could've been interesting had Vettel not held up behind Perez, or the tyres went down the hill (as experts said it'll be tight on a one stopper for drivers starting on the hypers). Have got a few bets on Vettel at the start after he pitted for the undercut strategy as well as a few bets on Daniel as he ran very long in his first stint, so anytime after he pitted if there is a safety car and if any of the front runners have to pit again due to tyre issues, he'd be well placed to steal the win as he has made his stop. Got Daniel at x41 and x51 at one time. 
Maybe we can look into races where overtaking on track is extremely difficult, and a one stop strategy is on the borderline in terms of tyre degradation (so teams have to nurse their tyres throughout the race, resulting in poor lap times), then we can look at the fastest lap market for mid-tier teams who started outside the top 10 (normally they'd start on harder tyres so they can run longer as starting on the softer compounds would not help a lot in overtaking due to track characteristics, and switch to the softer compounds in the second stint to aid their overtaking over cars who are on older and harder tyres). I've bet on Ricciardo, Alonso and Magnussen for the fastest lap and very lucky to have Magnussen as the winner at x101.
Reason being if Ric stays 6th, most likely he will have a very big gap to the 7th placed car for him to have a free pitstop to the ultras or hypers and hope for a safety car or just hope someone's tyres to drop off. 
For Alonso, we've seen if he has a bad race, he just doesn't care anymore, he will just switch to softer tyres and try to get the fastest lap.
For Magnussen, the only thing is because the Haas is a top10 car in the field, and starting last means he is most likely to start on the softs before switching to hypers or ultras. But if I'm not mistaken he put on new sets of hypers in the last few laps since he was going to finish last anyway. 
Nevertheless, I am surprised as to how much the front runners are nursing their tyres to the extend the Mclaren and Haas' fastest lap is a sizeable margin to the fastest laps of the top 3 teams.

Well against all odds Lewis Hamilton produces the lap of the year to snatch pole and put a totally different light on the race. Hamilton is now the 5/6 favourite with bet365.
Its virtually a 3-car race with Vettel and Verstappen in opposition and 25/1 bar. I'm still not convinced Mercedes is the car to be on around here so don't see any value in Hamilton. My first gut feeling was for Red Bull as discussed before so I must row in with Max, he's generally 100/30 and 3/1 in places so the value is to back Red Bull at 3/1 (from 2/1) and we get a token free bet on Ricciardo.
As far as the classified drivers market is concerned i'm going to go with the value and back the overs at 11/10 with bet365. I think if we avoid a pile up on the first lap then we are in with a good chance. The 90% cut off for bets this week is 55 laps so we avoid any of those teams who retire late on to save engines.
My sporting bet this week is going to be on Lance Stroll NOT to finish the race at 2/1 with bet365. He doesn't fare well on street like circuits having retired in Canada, finished last in Monte Carlo and miles behind in Australia. he did well last time out at Monza but that is a quick short lap, this ie very technical compared. The Williams team have been struggling all week and while he could just 'tootle' round at the back of the pack I think he may get a bit ambitious and he will either hit the wall, another car or simply give up late on.
Red Bull 3/1 bet365
Over 15.5 11/10 bet365
Stroll not to finish 21/ bet365
 

Billy, if you enjoy watching F1, you should seriously look at in-running for f1. It is the exact dream of bettors if you know how the sport works in terms of the value the markets offer. A lot of my friends like the winnings but they are not interested in f1 so they cannot sit in front of the tv for 1.5 - 2 hours and they cannot understand pit window, undercut and overcut strategy, how backmarkers affect the pit window and strategy, how teammates are utilized (e.g. bottas and kimi ) etc. When you put all this into the equation that is when you find value during pit windows. This year has been the better year for in-running because ferrari and mercedes are so evenly matched which means more possibility of the second placed car gaining the lead. 
 
With regards to your comment about the safety car, one market that I am interested would be drivers head to head market. I'll probably go for the underdog for markets such as stroll vs sirotkin, hulkenberg vs sainz, grosjean vs magnussen, drivers who are on the same level with each other but it all comes down to form and luck. A racing incident has the same chance of wiping out the favourite as well as the underdog, so the value definitely lies in the underdog in such accident packed circuit. 

1. I think Tottenham will be a good pick in the asian handicap market. Playing at home, I'd think they are in a good chance to at least avoid a defeat against Liverpool, and despite the perfect start made by Liverpool, they have not come up against any top sides in their first 4 games. I think Tottenham will be able to trouble them with the likes of Trippier, Eriksen, Kane, and the rejuvenated Moura. 
 
2. I think it'd worth a gamble to pick Newcastle in the asian hdcp market against Arsenal. The Gunners' defence has been very poor in my opinion. I actually felt that it was even worse than the time when Wenger is still the manager. They are playing such a high backline but at the same time unable to cut out through passes that exposes their defence. I'd say their standout performer so far has been Petr Cech for his saves (not his ball distribution though). Some of the saves has been top notch and crucially deciding the outcome of the match. If I'm not mistaken he is the goalkeeper to have made the most saves in the premier league so far this season, so this tells you a lot about how many chances are the Arsenal backline giving their opponents. Unless they showed a good solid defensive performance, I think it'd wise to back their opponents and the both teams to score market. Their attack has been brilliant though., but just that adopting a strategy 'whoever scores more wins the game' will not work most of the times.
 
3. Wolves has been performing above expectations this season, while it has been quite poor for Burnley. I believe the home support will give the upper hand to Wolves in this match up from what we have seen in their match against Man City. The crowd support was superb and we can see how it spurred the Wolves players to keep going. Wolves have played a style where they showed no fear against premier league opponents and able to grind out result if required as shown in their last game. I think it will be a good bet backing them against Burnley.

1. I think Tottenham will be a good pick in the asian handicap market. Playing at home, I'd think they are in a good chance to at least avoid a defeat against Liverpool, and despite the perfect start made by Liverpool, they have not come up against any top sides in their first 4 games. I think Tottenham will be able to trouble them with the likes of Trippier, Eriksen, Kane, and the rejuvenated Moura. 
 
2. I think it'd worth a gamble to pick Newcastle in the asian hdcp market against Arsenal. The Gunners' defence has been very poor in my opinion. I actually felt that it was even worse than the time when Wenger is still the manager. They are playing such a high backline but at the same time unable to cut out through passes that exposes their defence. I'd say their standout performer so far has been Petr Cech for his saves (not his ball distribution though). Some of the saves has been top notch and crucially deciding the outcome of the match. If I'm not mistaken he is the goalkeeper to have made the most saves in the premier league so far this season, so this tells you a lot about how many chances are the Arsenal backline giving their opponents. Unless they showed a good solid defensive performance, I think it'd wise to back their opponents and the both teams to score market. Their attack has been brilliant though., but just that adopting a strategy 'whoever scores more wins the game' will not work most of the times.
 
3. Wolves has been performing above expectations this season, while it has been quite poor for Burnley. I believe the home support will give the upper hand to Wolves in this match up from what we have seen in their match against Man City. The crowd support was superb and we can see how it spurred the Wolves players to keep going. Wolves have played a style where they showed no fear against premier league opponents and able to grind out result if required as shown in their last game. I think it will be a good bet backing them against Burnley.

I always supported the idea of betting based on statistics to eliminate the emotional factor. Yes, sometimes we can have better picks based on our own knowledge of a team or a game, but this can be very abstract and subjective as you do not have a checklist to crosscheck against your pick. An example, say you've probably just watched a video of say Arsenal's best goals this season and instantly. and automatically it will makes you feel Arsenal is a stronger team than they actually are.
 
While for statistical betting, the difficult part is to discover a set of criteria that give you the edge over the bookmakers but of course this is the most difficult part as bookmakers wouldn't exist anymore if it is so easy to beat them. And the second part is, once you've found the edge, it is easier to keep your discipline as mentally you know you can recover your losses (provided you've backtested it with enough sample to give you the confidence) and won't bet erratically in attempt to recover your losses.
 
My advice is maybe try going down the route of odds first before finding your criteria edge. Reason being, we might have better knowledge in one or two match than the bookmakers that gives us the edge, but it is possible to have this 'knowledge edge' over the bookmakers in most of the matches. This is where the bookie have the advantage, not to mention their odds pricing which favour themselves as well. So what I believe is that, through understanding odds you can avoid trying to research that much into the teams, players, weather etc although these are vital but they are mostly priced into the odds unless you have inside information about the match, or you have immediate information that the bookmakers have not updated their odds yet. So maybe try starting with odds and see if it makes any difference to your system or research.
 
And finally,I believe the major factor in incurring major losses in betting is more to discipline than actually finding the winners. You might be winning a small amount every month but a bad week can just trigger you to make irrational bets that wipe out years of profit. This is why I believe in statistical betting. No matter how bad a streak I'm having, I know that I can turn this around if say I have tested this system against the past 1000 matches that fit the criteria, which will end up in profit.
 
Good luck !

I believe this has been discussed before but some of the discussions were outdated and perhaps there has been some changes in how bookmakers determine which accounts to limit. 
 
1. How to avoid bookmakers limitations (resources from internet)?
The usual ones are round up your stake, betting patterns, regularly betting on low tier leagues, avoid withdrawals etc. 
Somehow I have a habit of betting on low tier or foreign leagues especially during off season when all the major leagues havent started yet, and actually I am making small profits from these leagues every week. So how do I overcome this?
If there is profit, there will come a time when we have to do withdrawals. Best way to overcome this? Found a way from internet to avoid multiple withdrawals from same bookmaker is to bet on underdog on the bookmaker u want to transfer from and bet on the favourite on the bookmaker you want to receive the funds. Example you want to transfer funds from Bookmaker A to Bookmaker B then withdraw through Bookmaker B. Bet on Arsenal at 1.20 in Bookmaker B and Stoke City at 5.00 in Bookmaker A. In most cases Arsenal will win and you have your funds 'transferred' to bookmaker B. This only work if you found odds as perfect as this, or if you are willing to forego 1-2% of odds difference to 'aid your withdrawal.'
 
2.Is betting exchange the way to go?
Eventually when there is no way to go around bookmakers limitations,is betting exchange the only way? I've not tried betting exchange before and I am not sure the advantages and disadvantages. Perhaps liquidity in lower tier leagues will be insufficient for punters to place a bet because there is no one taking the other side of the bet?
 
3. Bookmakers' point of view
I would really love to see comments about this issue from maybe a former employee of bookmaker, someone who knows how bookmaker operate, or even experienced punters who have had their way in overcoming bookmakers limitations.
 
Feel free to discuss and thanks for all your inputs.
 

Hi Billy, thanks for the informative write up.  
Never discount rain in the tropical region, and based on weather forecast, rain is expected on sunday few hours before the start of the race, so it can be a start on a damp track. Having said that, weather forecast in this region is rarely accurate. 
These are the kind of races which I like the most for live betting. So the strategy will always to back the second placed or third placed car should there be favourable odds (3.00 and above)during in-race betting depending on the pit stop situation and gap.  Anything can happen because of safety car. Not a lot of run off area, no room for error, and no chance for retrieval of debris means safety car is almost a certainty, and this means no leading driver is guaranteed the win. Having said that, this track is notoriously difficult to overtake, but who can rule out the Red Bull duos who have nothing to lose, as well as Vettel I'd dare to say if Hamilton is in front of him. He has to start taking risks to close the 30 pt gap.
I agree with you the red bull looks good value to snatch the win this weekend, but the favourite is still Vettel. But like you said, he has not capitalise on winning the past 2 races despite being in the front row as well as having the fastest car at the moment. 
 
 

1. I think Tottenham will be a good pick in the asian handicap market. Playing at home, I'd think they are in a good chance to at least avoid a defeat against Liverpool, and despite the perfect start made by Liverpool, they have not come up against any top sides in their first 4 games. I think Tottenham will be able to trouble them with the likes of Trippier, Eriksen, Kane, and the rejuvenated Moura. 
 
2. I think it'd worth a gamble to pick Newcastle in the asian hdcp market against Arsenal. The Gunners' defence has been very poor in my opinion. I actually felt that it was even worse than the time when Wenger is still the manager. They are playing such a high backline but at the same time unable to cut out through passes that exposes their defence. I'd say their standout performer so far has been Petr Cech for his saves (not his ball distribution though). Some of the saves has been top notch and crucially deciding the outcome of the match. If I'm not mistaken he is the goalkeeper to have made the most saves in the premier league so far this season, so this tells you a lot about how many chances are the Arsenal backline giving their opponents. Unless they showed a good solid defensive performance, I think it'd wise to back their opponents and the both teams to score market. Their attack has been brilliant though., but just that adopting a strategy 'whoever scores more wins the game' will not work most of the times.
 
3. Wolves has been performing above expectations this season, while it has been quite poor for Burnley. I believe the home support will give the upper hand to Wolves in this match up from what we have seen in their match against Man City. The crowd support was superb and we can see how it spurred the Wolves players to keep going. Wolves have played a style where they showed no fear against premier league opponents and able to grind out result if required as shown in their last game. I think it will be a good bet backing them against Burnley.

Norway – Cyprus
Posted on September 6, 2018 Footalyct Betting suggestion: Norway first half -0,5 @1,909 Pinnacle
Bet on Norway is practically a public bet today, but I am not that comfortable with taking high handicaps on the Scandinavian team. In my opinion, now in 2018, all countries (or let’s say majority), even if their players aren’t that famous, aren’t playing in top5 leagues, etc… all of them are capable of positioning well and simply make it harder for their opponent. With a bit of daily form and luck, they might have a player or two who will make difference in attack or simply use the mistake of the opponent and when those small teams are 0-1 in front, then it’s extremely hard to overcome the result. Norway is one of the favorites in the group and it’s important for them to start with 3 points, especially as they are playing against the biggest underdog in the group. Truth is, that Norway possesses way more quality, much more experiences, their players have played more tough matches in careers, they are on the excellent run (winning last 4 international matches) and it looks that since they made a change in the leaderboard, they are back on solid track. As they didn’t participate on WC, I think that they will take this league pretty seriously but as I said above… teams like Cyprus can make an upset, and regarding the odds, I prefer to take Norway to win first half here because the longer match will stay at 0-0, more nervous the match will be and everything can happen then… If Norway will beat Cyprus with 2 goals difference as everyone is expecting, then I think that they will be up-front already in the first half.
https://footalyct.com/norway-cyprus/

Very well said Stevie but I think Wales will win this if they start Bale and Ramsay. It'll most likely to be a dull game but at least these two players can produce some moment of brilliance to just win it for Wales. 

Very well said Stevie but I think Wales will win this if they start Bale and Ramsay. It'll most likely to be a dull game but at least these two players can produce some moment of brilliance to just win it for Wales. 

I think the main factor to winning this competition will be team depth. Teams like France, Germany, Spain can afford to field their second string and still win comfortably against lesser opponents or even equal strength opponents, where as teams like Wales, Denmark, Portugal when you take away Bale, Ramsay, Eriksen, Ronaldo then they become very ordinary (just example I don't know if all of these nations are playing). Surely at some point in the competitions, the substitutes or reserves will be given a chance to start the game and show what they can do.

Hi again Billy.
1. Didn't expect there hasn't been any safety car in Monza for the past 6 years. I thought there would be high occurence of safety car on such a high speed track before I saw your statement. Anyway, the over finishers bet looks to be a good bet in most of the races this season. We don't see that much mechanical failures as compared to previous season (especially the mclaren honda era, hehe), and only a first lap chaos in Belgium last week helped to clear the under finishers bet. I'd think if the drivers can avoid the first corner chaos, then the over 15.5 finishers is an almost guaranteed bet, but then again the run from the start to the first corner is quite a long one, and it is a very tight chicane, so I'd expect contacts between cars but whether it will result in retirements. There is chance of a rain as well in the race that will certainly spice things up for the finishers market. I'll skip this bet as I personally do not like to bet on over finishers bet.
2. Good chance for Daniel to finish in the top 6 if he can avoid the first lap chaos. Red Bull again is the best of the rest after Ferrari and Mercedes. On a track where overtaking is quite easy with DRS, I think Daniel should be able to make his way up the field pretty easily until he catches up on the Haas. I'll go with you on this.
3. I'll skip the Alonso bet as well. Just recalling from memory, most of his retirements are from mechanical failures or accident through no fault of his own. Do correct me if I'm wrong as I did not look up any data on this.
 
My bets for this race:
1. Vettel to win @ 1.57 bet365.
I don't think Ferrari will allow Kimi to win unless Vettel retires or Hamilton is in front of Vettel. I think the only threat lies in a clean start and the reliability of the Ferrari. The Ferrari is too quick even if they lose the position to Hamilton at the start, I do not think Hamilton can defend the lead, just like in Belgium where Vettel overtook Hamilton without DRS.
2. Ricciardo to finish in top 6 @ 1.90 bet365
As explained above.
3. Magnussen to finish in the points @ 1.61 bet365
A 'racing incident' ruined both Magnussen and Alonso's qualifying runs, otherwise Magnussen would at least qualify in the top 8 if he is able to get a tidy lap in. Nevertheless, by starting 11th on the grid, he has fresh tyres for the start, as well as a car that is capable of a top 8 finish. At 1.61 is definitely a good value for this bet if he can avoid first lap chaos.
4. Both Red Bulls to finish in the points @ 1.72 bet365 & Both Haas to finish in the points @ 2.25 bet365
In terms of raw pace, the Red Bulls and Haas are the 3rd and 4th ranked teams on the grid. Other than retirements or accidents, I'd expect both cars from these two teams to finish in the points
5. Both cars to be classified - Williams - NO @ 2.37 bet365
We've seen the Williams improved their reliability recently but they've mostly started at the back of the grid, which means they are better placed to avoid first lap incidents. Now, stroll and sirotkin are starting 10th and 12th on the grid in this race, and they are not exactly the sort of drivers which I feel safe to be alongside them going into the first corner when there could be 3-4 drivers squeezing each other into the corner. So I'd expect either one of them to probably retire after the first lap, or otherwise hope for a engine failure due to the time on the throttle for this track
 
 
 

Congrats on the finishers bet as well as Alonso's retirement. All my bets lost, just shows you how unpredictable F1 betting is and how we can find value if the result end up in the right side.
I did made a few in-running bets on Hamilton win though as the odds offered were very kind. All the while above 2.00 (even reaching 3.00 at one stage in the first stint when Kimi pulled a 1.5sec lead) before Hamilton made his pitstop.

Going to start a thread mainly betting on both teams to score.
Selection of bets based on a set of pre-match criteria.
A little bit of info about this thread. This set of criteria has generated over 100 games since July in which I'm doing a paper trial and I'd expect more games to fit into these criteria as the major leagues has started middle of this month. The yield from the paper trial has been positive with only 1 out of the 7 weeks recorded a loss.
I'll be using odds from bet365. In the event that bet365 does not offer odds for btts for certain matches, I'll be using odds from smarket.
Betting bank starts at $100.

hi jtw1,
I believe the correct scores are eroding/deepening the profit or loss of this bet. I'd suggest to only aim for high stakes cs and avoid the low stake cs e.g. 1-0 2-0, as hitting these cs doesn't really recover what you've staked for cs.

Thanks. Based on the practice runs and qualifying yesterday, it seems quite likely that there will be safety car in this race. A few drivers spin and went into the gravel as well as the possibility of rain

Manchester City's odds looked a bit too low for me actually. Wouldn't bet on them with that kind of odds. With the odds shown, I'd go for Liverpool and Arsenal.
We've all see last season when Liverpool played well, they are unbeatable. If they can keep their front three fit throughout the season and have a bit more consistency, I think they have a real shout at the title.
Arsenal at odds of 29 is crazy. They are genuine outsiders, but I think with a new manager and new signings coming in, they could have a chance of challenging for the title. Now that they have signed Leno, Sokratis, Lichsteiner and Torreira, I think there is a chance that they can solve last season's shortcomings which is an error prone keeper, leaky defence and a soft midfield. 

Not sure if this is under the right section but here it goes.
As per title, looking for some books or reading materials related to sports betting. 
Can be knowledge about way to improve chances of winning in sports betting, or even insights into how bookmakers operate, or stories of fixing matches in some fishy leagues or anything that you came across that you enjoyed reading that is related to sports betting.
Thanks.