bartvz

Thanks for your picks during the PDC WC @Fader! Do you also have some picks for the BDO tournament? Maybe some outrights?

Most 180s of the week - Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6. 5 points. Betfred.
I won't bore you with the sums but this is way, way over on PL performance this season.
A lot of the excess probability is held in Lewis' price, which I think is under due to his 9 last week. MvG beats him comfortably over summed 2 game samples and beats the field >90% when 2 plays 1 matchwise.
Biggest bet I've had since the World Matchplay. 
Definitely a price worth having. Hopefully Michael does the business.

Lets try again then. 
6pts P.Wright to beat R.Thornton 4/6 Paddypower
Thornton only really seems to up his game against Van Gerwen. He has had some right stinkers in this Premier League and if he doesn't start well his shoulders soon slump. Wright needs a good result here to keep him in touch of the leaders and dominates the h2h in which Thornton hasn't won in 8 matches. 

3pts P.Taylor -2.5 legs to beat R.Van Barneveld Evens Bet365
Barney just doesn't look at the races to me. He really should of beat Van Gerwen a few weeks back and even last week he was very poor against Wade. Taylor has got his consistency back and he isn't missing the doubles he was a few months back. I fancy him to win this 7-3/7-4 so the handicap looks a nice price at evens.

4pts J.Wade to beat A,Lewis 15/8 Skybet
2pts J.Wade to win and have highest checkout 4/1 Skybet
1pt J.Wade to win the match / Most 180s / Highest Checkout 14/1 Skybet 
Another that looks poor is Adrian Lewis. You never know with Lewis as he can just turn up one week and if he does that he'll win but too many times this year already we have seen him just look very average. I'm going to take a little punt on the treble too for a point you can't go wrong here. I don't expect Lewis to shine and if that's the case then you shouldn't expect too many 180s. Wade also is very good at high checkouts so I will also take that.
4pts Van Gerwen to beat G.Anderson & Highest Checkout 11/8 Skybet
Fancy Van Gerwen to win this one. Andersons form has been sketchy and although he is right up there and don't think he has the game to beat Van Gerwen at the moment. Anderson can hit 180s for fun on his day so I'll leave that alone and go for Van Gerwen with the checkout.
2.5pts R.Thornton to beat R.Van Barneveld 2/1 Skybet
1.5pt R.Thornton to win the match / Over 2.5 180s / checkout over 96.5 7/1 Skybet
Too big a price for Thornton. Van Barneveld will probably lose to Taylor and then at the end of the night has to come back out to play Thornton and that's not Barneys style atall. He isn't used to the way this league is going. He isn't used to losing every week but that's what is happening recently and to be honest, I think Thornton will want it more and will work harder knowing a win could take him above Barney.
 

Luck seems to be well against me now but I'll keep plugging away. -8pts last week. How Van Barneveld didn't win I don't know. Lewis was there for the taking too and Anderson was throwing to win but hey ho. Bank still healthy at +57pts
I'll get my tips in asap for tonight. Busy day at work.

Just wanted to highlight 1 of the points above as i feel if you operate a pay for tipping service you really ought to know a little better.
Kiev aren't out of season nor did they finish second on goal difference.
 
They are simply in a 3 month winter break and have therefore only played friendlies since. They do though sit second currently (on goal difference) but still have 10 games left in their campaign.
Not sure what difference this could make to anybodies betting but feel it should be corrected as it might make some sort of impact on a punters decision as to where to put his hard earned. 
Might seem a small thing but small things matter when betting and as mentioned i noticed the poster provides a paid for service so should be "more professional" when providing statistics and "facts"
Please don't take this the wrong way my intention isnt to offend but i have strong feelings on tipsters...particularly those that charge so would expect accuracy as a minimum.
 
regards

Week 3 of the Premier League and tonight were in Dublin. Big matches tonight as Van Gerwen plays Aidy Lewis and Taylor faces Anderson so it's a hard night to call. Can i also point out the run of not losing a bet in this thread will end very soon lol.. I'm leaving the Wright Vs Wade match alone as Wright has had the same bug going around that Thornton and Anderson have both had and the nonsense with the changing of darts. 
5pts G.Anderson to beat P.Taylor 7/5 Betbright
Anderson fully over the bug now and more importantly, he seems to have the beating of Phil in recent times. Anderson has beaten Phil 4 in the last 5 matches and alot of those have been in high pressure environments like Finals, Quarter-finals etc.. Anderson will be thinking he needs to win this one otherwise it's 2 in 2 and could really harm him with players like Wright already going for his third win tonight. Anderson to edge it.
5pts R Van Barneveld to beat R.Thornton 4/5 Coral
Another player that will see himself having to win tonight is Barney as these are the matches he would be targeting to get himself into that top 4 come end of play. Alot will depend on if Barney gets ahead as we have seen, Roberts shoulders do tend to drop. I wouldn't put anyone off of the handicap here either
2pts three fold (Anderson / Chisnall / Van Barneveld) all to win 8/1 Coral

Tonights picks : 
4pts Thornton Vs Norris (Over 9.5 180s) Evens SkyBet
2pts A.Norris to win the match / score most 180s / highest checkout 10/1 SkyBet
It's a difficult one this match. Norris is a big scorer but can lack on the doubles sometimes and Thornton it just depends which Thornton turns up. I'm going to look to the 180s market instead for this one and a small bet on SkyBets "price boost" on Norris too. Could go either way this match for me, so I'll take the bigger scorer and more value.
4pts M.Smith (-1.0 handicap of 180s) 11/10 SkyBet
Smith should win this, but I'm not sure as easily as the market suggests. I do think he will score the most 180s very easily though so I think this price for him getting more than 1> of his opponent is a gift
 

Back Andy Murray NOT to reach the semi-finals for a 7/10 stake at 3.20 with Paddy Power
Back Novak Djokovic (-5.5) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Back Roger Federer (-3.5) to beat Tomas Berdych for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power
3.20 for Murray not to qualify for the semis given the Davis Cup Finals and everything? Now that's a price that I can't ignore, even though he's obviously the favourite in his group on paper. As far as the Sunday matches are concerned, I think that we're going to see two easy wins for the favourites. The gap between Djokovic and Nishikori is massive at the moment, while I expect Berdych to adopt a defeatist attitude considering his group - the refined playing style Federer has adopted in the second part of the season should also work well against him, as he's never been great when having to play under pressure all the time.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/atp-world-tour-finals-betting-can-anyone-beat-novak-djokovic-in-london-

I feel betrayed.PSG definetely didn't deserve to lose if not to win...Really feel like somebody has taken the money out of my pocket

Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Nicolas Mahut for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power
Back Dominic Thiem to beat Adrian Mannarino  for a 7/10 stake at 1.63 with Unibet
Thiem should be way too strong for Mannarino even despite his average form recently, it's as simple as that and the odds don't look half-bad. Meanwhile, I can't see how Lajovic can be priced at 2.50 against Mahut, who's declined a lot over the last year or so and who isn't going to get much better just because he'll be playing on home soil.
Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/bnp-paribas-masters-betting-can-anyone-stop-novak-djokovic-in-paris-