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Posts posted by GETT1NLOTS

  1. Re: Draw Strategy Grrrrrrrr DRAW YANKEE Stranraer v Forfar @ 12/5 (Monday) POSTPONED :| Shrewsbury v York @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 2-2 :D Margate v Hereford @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 0-2 :( Telford v Dag&Red @ 21/10 (Tuesday) 1- 2 :( Return 3.1 units Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 34 units Current Bank 69.1 units

  2. Re: Eng-Aus I might be wrong but I'm sure Australia are 7/1 at some bookies - maybe more at others - certainly 11/2 is nowhere near the best price. Check out BetBase to see the best odds. (Am I allowed to suggest that? If not please edit Mods and sorry!) Personally I wouldn't touch a bet on this game with a bargepole but I agree I think considering it is just an experiment a bet on the away or draw could be seen by some as value.

  3. Re: NEVER EVER LOSE AGAIN IF U TRY THIS Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We all went through the phase of re-inventing the square wheel at sometime in our lives -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ermmmmm maybe I'm stupid but wouldn't reinventing the square wheel be something that we would WANT to do? I.E. a square wheel is no bloody good? Don't you mean ;) 'We all went through the phase of TRYING to re-invent the wheel at sometime in our lives'? Or am I being stupid? :D

  4. Re: Draw Strategy Valid points - all of them. I will obviously stick with this method until the money runs out or I retire to a private island with a girl called Miss WantItForAFiver on my winnings. After that I will probably try one of the other suggestions made by SecondSight except for the 'weather one' because for an idiot like me it would be to hard to administer / check on.

  5. Midweek Yankee Only 4 possibles during the week if (like me) you dont count stupid international friendlies. Couldn't use the info that Brightboy gave me because these were the only 4 options as I've said DRAW YANKEE Stranraer v Forfar @ 12/5 (Monday) Shrewsbury v York @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Margate v Hereford @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Telford v Dag&Red @ 21/10 (Tuesday) Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 34 units Current Bank 66 units

  6. Joining EZ Just filled out the form and it said it was declined - cheeky buggers!! :eek I think it's gone through now though. :D Mods - I think maybe a help section on what the 'card code' is might help? I did see the little bit of info at the bottom of the form - but thats all it is 'a LITTLE'. On my card two seperate things COULD have applied. :rolleyes Anyway I'm drifting from the point of this thread topic... sorry.

  7. Re: Re:fair play Brightboy - thanx for that data. (Where else could you get this kinda help for free? I must pay my $6 to ezboard as advice like that deserves something). Anyway I shall now make matches that fall into the areas you indicate my first picks in the future (assuming there are lots of games that WOULD have matched my old criteria). I still want to do 2 yankees if possible though. Once again thanks. :D

  8. Ask a silly question - with respect Firstly let me say this. My bets have stunk lately so I am not up my own ass BUT You dont bet on friendly internatioanls because .... ermm ....they are friendlies? Like 2nd teams going out? Players not caring? Managers not really caring? Fans NOT REALLY caring. I am not taking the Piss - just trying to be honest - and hopefully trying to save us all some money.... no offence mate. :D

  9. Re: fair play FIRST YANKEE Fulham V Villa @ 11/5 (2-1 :x ) West Brom v Bolton @ 11/5 (1-1 :D ) Grimsby v Stoke @ 11/5 (2-0 :x ) Preston v Millwall @ 11/5 (2-1 :x ) SECOND YANKEE Shef Weds v Norwich @ 21/10 (2-2 :D ) Brentford v Crewe @ 11/5 (1-2 :x ) Port Vale v Luton @ 11/5 (1-2 :x ) Boston Uts v Scunthorpe @ 21/10 (1-0 :x ) ACCUMULATOR - JUST IN CASE!!! 1 unit - :x :rollin :x :rollin :x - you're 'aving a larf Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 23 units Current Bank 77 units Interesting really seeing as none of these games were picked because I particularly fancied a draw - just trying a system when the 2 win odds are not more than 0.5 odds apart indicating the bookie thinks it's a close game. Wont give up on this until the money has run out or the season is over (ermmm probably the money first!!!). Wonder if the results carry on like this if you could use the selection process for a different kind of bet (i.e 3 goals and above yankees instead? - would have been 5 out of 8?!?!) Anyway far to early to give up OR hypothesise on different kinds of bets. Midweek football - here I come! ;)

  10. Re: Why I choose a Yankee Oops one more point if I may? I know the more experienced (and definately more patient of you) will be sighing at the fact I have laid down some cold hard cash before testing the data that Joe so wisely suggested. :rolleyes It's just that - to be honest - I am crap at trawling through loads of back data and would rather have the fun of collating my own with the added fun of having a flutter.... :D

  11. Why I choose a Yankee Smudge, You might notice from my reply to Joe that I didn't realise he was responding as I was writing out my Yankees for posting. In other words I was doing this devoid of the knowledge Joe had replied. With regards as to why I am doing Yankees are as follows. A double at average odds of 11/5 + 11/5 will return 10.24 units for a 11 unit stake. I think this is an acceptable loss - virtually breaking even for the potential pay offs. If 3 come up the returns on 11/5 + 11/5 + 11/5 would be as follows 10.24 + 10.24 + 10.24 + 32.77 = 63.49 units (a profit of 52.49 units). Therefore I am hoping that small losses of 11 units (if one or less selections come up) or only 0.76 units if two results come up will be easily compensated by profits of 52.49 units if three come up. :D Four would be nice but I won't hold my breath! :eek Only time will tell of course, however I am sure you wish me the best of luck and if anything it should produce some interesting data for the rest of the PL to do with what they will. I intend to run this experiment until the end of the season or until the 100 units run dry!

  12. Re: BETTING ON DRAWS. Right, to make it more interesting I am going to start with the traditional 100 units and place 2 Yankees (nicking part of Tosh's Value Yankee idea) and see how it goes. I'm going to pick games where the teams have no more than 0.5 in odds for the win between them, gamble on the draw result - and see how it goes. All odds will be taken from William Hill as thay are my local bookies. Two yankees for this Saturday. FIRST YANKEE Fulham V Villa @ 11/5 West Brom v Bolton @ 11/5 Grimsby v Stoke @ 11/5 Preston v Millwall @ 11/5 SECOND YANKEE Shef Weds v Norwich @ 21/10 Brentford v Crewe @ 11/5 Port Vale v Luton @ 11/5 Boston Uts v Scunthorpe @ 21/10 ACCUMULATOR - JUST IN CASE!!! :rollin 1 unit Starting Bank 100 units Total Wagered 23 units Current Bank ? units I'll be away for the weekend so I'll log on Sunday night.... Will I return a hero? :lol :D :lol :D Or a Zero? :x :o :x :o

  13. A question for the statistic gurus out there. 8o Has anyone played around with the idea of only betting on draws in matches that the bookies indicate (through the odds they give) are too close to call? For example in matches where both teams are within 0.5 of each other for a win? I suppose in matches like this the draw odds would also be lower as the bookie realises that the chances of a draw are higher as well though...... Anyway 'thinking out loud' again... Bottom line - Has anyone played with a system like this? Someone must have... :rolleyes

  14. Thanx Odds Odds - Once again I thank you for your help. I will go to Betfair as you suggest and self educate where I can although you have explained the principle of lay betting well enough for me to understand the basics. Now I shall try to read that link yougave me again on how the odds are worked and see if I understand more! >D Osesame - thanks for your advice too, although I am puzzled as to why you wouldn't touch X2 betting in the French 1st Division with the cover bet on 2 and the money maker on X? With lots of draws it seems a decent bet if you can take the home bankers out with reasonable success?

  15. Oh Crikey. Ok. Here goes. :o I hate sounding stupid. Firstly Odds and Mick - once again thanx for being unselfish with your time and answering queries. However Before I get into the complexities of calculating the odds / return when laying a bet I need to know the following.. What exactly IS 'laying' a bet. >D I thought the bookies layed bets with us - the punters. If we lay a bet - who do we lay it too? Back to the bookie? I just don't fully understand but would obviously like to, as making seperate bets on draws and aways is more time consuming than just 'laying a bet' instead I would imagine? Can you only lay bets with online bookies? Do any high street bookies let you do this as I haven't opened an online account yet. You also say it is better odds? Does that hold true even if you shop around for the best away and best draw odds with different bookies - generally speaking? Please explain to me as if I was a 3 year old :o Sorry for all the questions.... And no laughing at my 'newbieness' :lol :rollin Stop It!!! :rollin

  16. French League - Division 1 Thanks for the advice Osesame. Noticing as I was kept awake trawling through stats on the internet last night that the French 1st Division seems to have a lot of draws. Might try that one too as the bigger odds seem to be more on the draws than in the away wins. (Well in the games I would consider anyhow).

  17. Ok, even though I am still very new to the forum - those that have read some of my posts know I can go on a bit so please bear with another long winded ramble! :) After looking at a particularly interesting game between Troyes and Nice this midweek where the away team is 6/4 and the draw is 11/5 (see Worldwide League thread I started on this if your interested) I paricularly liked the look of an away result here - or at worst a draw. Noticing (as even a novice can do) that to cover both bets would still get me a nice profit I wondered if those experienced among you could give me the following advice / opinions? 1) Has anyone ever tried a 'cover bet' strat like this over a long time? If so what were the results / downfalls? 2) I am thinking of looking for bets like this where the away team is 'no less' than 5/4 and the draw is around the 2/1 mark (or the other way round I suppose) - as long as these odds are what I conclude, are at worst fair odds, even if not value odds. I want to use my knowledge on football to predict (as best as any of us can reasonably expect to) when a home win is unlikely and cover both other bets BUT a. Is it best to cover both bets to win at least something? Obviously this diminishes the return because of a higher stake on the losing of the two bets though. b. Is it best to break even on the lower odds (of the two results - normally the away win I would think?) so that if the 'big bet' comes in (the draw?) it maximises the winnings? c. Or is it best to break even on the higher odds (of the two results - normally the draw I would think?) so that the cover bet doesn't cost so much to place minimising the losses if the home team comes in? d. Is it just a matter of 'risk preference'? e. Does it depend on the respective odds? In conclusion I have looked at wagering reasonable sums on 'value bets' (value as has been explained to me by the more knowledgeable of you) but I want to look at alternative strats as well. So (God I'm boring myself now! :rollin ) What do you think? Oh and please keep it simple as I must admit that talk of 'overounds' and 'yields' is terminology that can confuse me a bit. (Well 'yield' I THINK is easy enough to understand... but 'overound' sounds like my girlfriend...) :lol

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