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Posts posted by GETT1NLOTS

  1. Re: PL v PP v DP STT NOW Guess who just won the tourney of forum champs? GETT1N, Alien, Doc, Jezza, Dave Oh and Tipstar was there for a laugh too :lol :tongue2 The champion in this high stakes game was none other than the 'Great One' himself. ME. :D :D :D :D :D -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Where's this Heniek chap I keep hearing about? Tell him I'm looking for him. These three towns aint big enough for both of us. :@

  2. Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Just to turn this whole thread right on it's head. :loon Ironically the other value bet might be to go against everything I'm saying. :lol If I'm totally wrong in everything I've said and we ignore the last elections turnout as a freak result, then the 12.00 on offer at Corals for a turnout between 71% + might tempt some. If you look at the table I posted earlier you will see that this bet would have won in EVERY General Election between 1922 - 1997!

  3. Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. I wont be voting because I believe that none of the Parties are offering me what I want to hear. Voting for a party that you do not believe in is worse than not voting at all. If you vote for a Party and you only believe in 50% of what they say then you are forever endorsing their policies. If turnout drops (and continues to do so) then Parties will have to take stock of their policies and give the public what we want. For example. If you vote Labour you are voting FOR the war in Iraq. Don't bitch when Blair leads us into the next conflict because your vote in 2005 was an endorsement of his last 8 years in office. Period. And before someone trots out the old cliché that "People died for you to vote" I'll correct them now. WRONG. People died for my right to vote. As for the spoiled papers counting (another waste of time) I'm not sure. Me and a friend were discussing this the other day. I'll go and have a look about the internet.

  4. Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet.

    The 11% drop was because everyone knew Labour would keep a massive majority. This is not quite the case this time round - although Labour will win, they will also in all likelihood face a much reduced majority. The harder to predict election results tend to have higher turnouts.
    Good point - No - Excellent point. But I think everyone knows that Labour are stick on certainties this time also, so I'm not sure if the above quote backs my argument or yours!
    Another factor is that this parliament has seen a lot of people drawn to politics in a way that didn't happen in Labour's first term. There have been so many controversial issues (top up fees, war, fox hunting, id cards) during this parliament that people will be more likely to vote, if only to register a protest.
    Again I think this is a good point but I draw a different conclusion to you accordingly. The issues you state above are all important subjects that give rise to people feeling strongly about things. However the fact that most people see politicians as self serving bastids that NEVER follow up their promises leads to the kind of surrender to the futility of it all that could be reflected in an even lower turnout again. I just think 8.00 is too big.
  5. Re: General Election Turnout. Value Bet. Thanks for the link Dave as I hadn't seen that thread. The difference with betting on turnout and other subjects on the general election (which are more specific) is that the turnout bet is a reflection on the general mood of the people. I can spot value in the 8.00 on offer becuase of what I see, smell and hear on the streets. Trying to guess how many seats labour will win or how big Blairs majority will be will never get me a value bet. Bookies have thousands of number crunchers on those subjects that I can never beat.

  6. SkyBet are offering 8.00 on there being less than 55% turnout to vote at the next general election. I see this as a massive value bet. The lowest ever turnout was in 2001 when 59% voted. However with so many people being fed up of Blair, but not being able to bring themselves to vote for the other alternatives, I can see it dropping by another 4% this time. The war on Iraq is a major reason why so many die hard Labour voters will refuse to turn out. Some people point to the opportunity to postal vote being a big reason why turnout won't drop again but I disagree. Only the 'political class' (people who would have voted ANYWAY) will apply to vote by post. People who couldn't be bothered to get of their arse to vote don't care anyway - so I don't see this making a difference. What do you think? 8.00????

  7. Re: Punters Lounge VIII Tourney I played like shite and my form is terrible. After every mistake I knew I had fcuked up. Inexcusably bad play by me. :( Congrats to Hagerty :ok Big 'well done' to Doddsy who is the Chelsea of this season. Excellent play. :clap

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