DanV89

4.30 HEXAM
BARACALU @ 6/1 Stan James
The only stable in the race with a decent Bumper record (20%) and this one ran well over hurdles after something went a miss on Bumper debut.  Interesting that it returns to a NHF race today.  Ran second on heavy in an Irish point and stays further than this so 2m on heavy should suit.  Claimer takes off a useful 7lb.

Here it is, the first flat meeting of the season! Sun is shining - what a surprise! Ground at Naas after a week of rain is still soft to heavy as the racecourse tweeted this morning. 
My main bet of the day is in the Irish Lincoln: Aussie Valentine at 8/1 e/w, already played this a while ago and feeling confident he's hard to keep out of the money at least. Runner-up the last two seasons, gets in off a very handy mark and loves the ground. 
The first two maidens are quite difficult imo, I let them run without the burden of my money on their shoulders in the first, but think Invincible Ryker (4/1) is sets a fair standard in the second one through his form from last season behind a subsequent Group places horse. Also he handles soft ground.
The sprint handicap might go to one of those lightly raced sorts at the top of the market. With price in mind I fancy a nibble on Dalgleish's raider Dark Defender who at least likes the ground and has a favourable draw off an okay mark. at 16's it seems worth a try. 
The Madrid Handicap is intriguing: smart 2yo form meets race fitness. I stick with potential class and do like despite top weight Bolger's Vociferous Marina (4/1) allot. At second time asking she got off the mark in a competitive Curragh maiden in softish conditions last year and did that in brilliant style. There's Oaks talks so she's clearly thought to be a smart girl. Ger Lyons's Hansian Prince looks worth a small saver at 14's.
Somehow looks hard to beat in the G3 Park Express but Aiden's rarely fit this time in year and his Dubai runners were a big disappointment I prefer the look of Weld's 3yo Queen Anne's Lace (7/1). Not easy against older horses to run this early in the year but she is better than hare bare form suggests, she travels strongly and will relish the ground. 
Good luck whatever you guys bet and enjoy the racing today! 

3.30 Southwell
SHOWBOATING @ 10/1 Stan James
Course and distance record reads 31232 on his last run over CD was beaten less than 2l in a class 3 off a 2lb higher mark. Poor run last time but that was at Newcastle and was too bad to be true. Down to a class 4 and back at his favourite track. Tudhope takes the ride today and is 20% for the trainer and +£13.63 LSP. Should go well at a double figure price.

Won

Just us two wins nicely takes us to +113 points 
 

4.00 Lingfield
AMANTO @ 33/1 Ladbrokes
Only his third run on the flat, would have a chance here on his 3/4L third at the track over 2m, wasn't beaten far on his subsequent run. Rated 124 over hurdles and this is his third run for the stable since being sold out of the Nicholls yard, his first run on boxing day was encouraging behind Divine Spear but slight concern is the reported breathing problems on his next outing. 33/1 shots are always going to have risks attached and now the race has broken up every chance he go well at a big price.

3.55 Wolves
KING ROBERT @ 16/1 Betway
Was thought good enough to run in the Group 2 Mill Reef as a 2yo and was far from disgraced, has only had 6 runs since the best being over CD. Was only beaten 1 1/2l that day despite being hampered. Down to a mark of 89 today and a wide draw and first time visor may help him settle better than his last two outings where his free running has cost him. Ben Curtis takes the ride today having only ridden for the stable twice previously.

Your cool ,invincible ridge 1st and 2nd a neck apart 

Keep them coming Richard!!

Florencio wins ...rock n roll ...34pts returned 

FC Porto v Juventus
The home side have an incredible record at home in the Champions League and have beaten Bayern and Chelsea at home in recent years. They also may have the perfect style to upset this Juventus side with their aggressive press from the front led by Andre Silva particularly with Bonucci missing from the squad. However I wanted bigger than 3.4 to be backing them against a side like Juventus and the value on the win market looks on the side of Juventus if anything at 2.6.
However I've been collecting shot location numbers in Liga NOS this season and Porto's centre half pairing come out incredibly well on shot quantity and quality. Although Porto are usually dominant against most opponents in the domestic league and get lots of set pieces as a result this is not seen in the other members of the "Os Tres Grandes" Benfica and Sporting. Porto are doing something right in the set piece department with quality set piece takers in Telles, Layun and Torres for example and also Marcano and Felipe who are able to attack their deliveries with a lot of success. Incredibly the pair have been involved in 10 shots logged as big chances this season only being beaten by strike partners Andre Silva and Soares.
Juventus have conceded 7 goals from headers this season and are missing key man Bonucci at the back tonight. Some of there problems have stemmed from individual errors and Porto will be hoping to expose Alex Sandro and Lichtsteiner who can be suspect positionally at set plays.
Marcano to score anytime @ 20/1 Bwin
Felipe to score anytime @ 20/1 Bwin

1st and 3rd well done Richard. 

340 south tues
Lady nayef  89
Dungannon  88
Escalating  99
Escalating has been off for 100 days so can't be guaranteed to run his best race but can't be ignored ...if he fails then lady nayef is most likely to benefit ...
Lacy nayef 4pts win 4/1 bet365
Escalating 4pts win 9/2  lads 

Josie Gordon on fire!!

Good winner, was clear best on my ratings

Wins easily 

145 ling thurs
Seprani    90
Sea tea dea   90
Auric goldfinger  84
Uric goldfinger is a potential improver but he's somewhat behind the top two who are rated highly for this grade so they should make a bold bid ...
Seprani 5pts win 7/1 bet365
Sea tea dea  5pts 6/1 bet365 

Newc 410 
Russian soul  98.99
Realize  98.97
Steel train  98.93
Holiday magic  98.93
Top two are a little in front here ...it's a tough race but they have strong form coming in and should run big races ..worth a punt 
Russian soul 4pts winn9/2 pp
Realize 4pts win 7/1 pp
 

Don't take it personally mate. Maybe I should have used more smileys
All my family are Hibees. Been to plenty games myself and followed plenty times home and away with my uncles in previous championship campaigns, cup finals, semi-defeats against Ayr etc etc. I hope you beat Hearts. I was merely offering an alternative opinion.
Good luck

Nice picks. 4-0 and 2-0 respectively.

I'm struggling to see how Morecambe are 3/1 at home to Cambridge. Morecambe have picked up again recently and are unbeaten in their last 5. 2 of those were draws against Doncaster who are top and Carlisle who are 3rd. Cambridge on the other hand have lost their last 3. In terms of teams news, Morecambe have a full squad to choose from  with no injury worries including midfielder Andy Fleming who is back from suspension. Right back Brad Halliday is out for Cambridge and although Barry Corr is due to return from a long-term injury they wont risk him today I dont think.
Morecambe 3/1 looks good value to me.

I'm struggling to see how Morecambe are 3/1 at home to Cambridge. Morecambe have picked up again recently and are unbeaten in their last 5. 2 of those were draws against Doncaster who are top and Carlisle who are 3rd. Cambridge on the other hand have lost their last 3. In terms of teams news, Morecambe have a full squad to choose from  with no injury worries including midfielder Andy Fleming who is back from suspension. Right back Brad Halliday is out for Cambridge and although Barry Corr is due to return from a long-term injury they wont risk him today I dont think.
Morecambe 3/1 looks good value to me.

15:40 Plumpton - Kings Walk. 0.5 E/w Bet @ 13/2 with Betfair 
Paddy Brennan was down as having two possible rides today, one for Ayr and one for Plumpton, opting for this sole ride at Plumpton might be a little clue, sole runner too for Mr Tizzard 

Yeah.lol...I'm just getting some mileage on the clock making sure everything works etc ....allseems fine so im going to make a strict rule to only concentrate on first 4 betting and to only play on the big differences ...i think that will be its strong point ...obviously horses dont reproduce their best two or three times in a row but i think if i concentrate only on the strongest hands then I think it can do well ....,so I'll start looking from Monday .......bring it on !!
I'll keep a record of bets too so we can see what is going on and whether there's a way it can be improved ....who knows it might surprise us !!
Last night's race was really good in fact that trust the Indian was top rated on other speed ratings I use too ....I noticed that afterwards so I can see the ratings are tuned right so ....I knew he was crap over 7f but it was a crap race anyway ...considering he was 5th and down the field and still came out top rated is fab really just shows the sheet is reading  correctly so all's good 

715 wolv Friday
Eljadaaf  118
Sophisticated heir 116
Plucky dip 110
Very classy race ...ejjadaaf made a big step forward last time and hard to know whether penalty will stop him after the ease of his win ...sophisticated heir has the better draw in 8 and Lewis Edmunds is claiming 7 so overall I think an ew bet on sophisticated heir at 11/2 is my favoured bet 
Sophisticated heir 3pts ew 11/2 bet365