dylanphan
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Posts
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Posts posted by dylanphan
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Played Seattle -110 vs Portland. Big rivalry game, Seattle at home is always a strong play and they come in to this one in strong form. Both teams need points here, so a draw could be in the cards, but end of the day I just think Seattle is too solid of a side, have home field and will be a tough team to break down. Under would also be a decent play here.
Charlotte/Nashville I see some value here in o2.25 (Evs). Both teams are about 50/50 to hit the 2.5 goals this year, but Charlotte really struggles for goals at home which is odd. Nashville's games have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, and while Charlotte's only 2 of their last 5, they do create a lot of chances, they just don't finish well. I think we're getting a gift here with the 2.25 line, and I also like BTTS in this one.
May be back later for the late games, but have some errands to run
Pretty good start for the weekend here, LAFC won 3-2 so won both those bets, and NYFC gifted 3 first half PK's and I see they just scored to make it 3-1 so my biggest bet of the week lands.
g'luck
- harry_rag and StevieDay1983
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For tonight, I have two plays that will hopefully pay off.
LAFC -115 to win (1.15 to win 1 unit). Odds have drifted to a point where I think this is now a very playable number. There are a few injury concerns for LAFC with Vela and Rodriguez, but as this is a derby, at home, I do expect both to play (note, both missed last game out). Oh, and Bale will be at the game. Doubt he plays, maybe a late sub on, but this is a premier match for the MLS, in prime time, so expect all the major players to shine. LAFC have scored at least 2x in 9 of their last 10 home games. The only game they didn't, they lost 1-2 vs Austin, but thoroughly dominated statistically. That was their only loss at home on the year, so I think -115 is a great price and worth a full play here.
LAFC/LA Galaxy o3.75 +200 (0.5 unit play)
As mentioned above in detail, LAFC has plenty of scoring punch, in particular at home. I've actually seen more Galaxy games, and they are nowhere near as good, but one thing they do is get plenty of chances as well. And the professional poacher Chicharito always a threat to nick one in (Although he seems to miss more clear cut chances than anyone in the league as well!). I would not try to talk any one off a punt at the o2.5 line, but, if you look at previous head to head matches we have seen at least 2 goals in every match since inception and some barn burners with two 8 goal games, a 6 goal game, and last match out was a 4 goal result. Could be a dud, but I'll take a shot at 2/1 odds in a game where I'm expecting at least a few goals. Just a half unit, maybe we get another 3-1 LAFC victory
g'luck
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Thank you Stevie Day for all of your efforts!
Big weekend ahead in MLS with a few major derbys - LAFC/LA Galaxy and Portland/Seattle.
I'll see if I can swing back here later in the week but I did want to focus my attention on the NYFC/NE Revolution game. As I tend to focus on goals markets, this one is a good spot, imho to see some goals. NYFC's attack, in particular at home, is fantastic. They move the ball swiftly both through the middle and with bombing runs on the flanks, and if Castellanos starts, he always a good bet to get a goal (two this weekend). That said, they are very susceptible on the counter and allow plenty of opportunities against. They are kind of a team in flux here as they have an interim head coach, and big questions about who may be on the move. On the other side you have the Revolution who have made quite a number of moves to solidify this team and honestly I can see them making a late charge to be a contender for the MLS cup. While their last road match at Vancouver (*something like 2,000+ miles away) was a 0-0 draw, most of their away games see plenty of goals, as they score and allow almost 2 per game. NE overall are an over machine with 12/18 getting over 2.5, and 7/8 on the road going over 2.5. As I mentioned, NYFC is very aggressive on the small home field they have this game almost assuredly will get plenty of chances. And while I can't guarantee the goals, I do like o2.75 (-120) for a double unit wager.
g'luck
- harry_rag and StevieDay1983
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I'd expect some goals in Vancouver/LAFC game. LAFC has a great attack, and score pretty much every game. Their defense on the road is mediocre at best. BTTS seems solid, but I also like o2.5 at -140 or so. Vancouver is under some pressure to get a result here so if you can get a first half goal, I think we'll get to 3 with ease with the game opening up.
NYFC are very large home favorites, and reasonably so. They've lost just once at home all year. Atlanta on the other hand have just 4 points from 8 road matches all year long and are coming off a crushing loss last night in NY vs Red Bulls, where they allowed 2 goals after the 80 minute mark. They have also lost a number of players all year due various reasons, but have Josef Martinez back in the fold where he has scored 3 of the last 4 games. I would still recommend playing NYFC, HOWEVER with one major caveat as their talisman, Valentin Castellanos was absent last match and is under huge speculation to transfer, possibly to Leeds, possibly soon. NYFC is asking a kings bounty for him, but Leeds coffers have been stuffed with the recent losses of Raphinha and Phillips, and well, you think they may make a play for him soon. If Castellanos plays, I'd recommend playing NYFC at -0.75 for -115 or better as I just don't see them losing.
g'luck
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I'll be up early tomorrow to take a look at lineups, but in my eyes there is absolutely zero chance United do not win tomorrow. United haven't lost at home to Everton in 8 years, and there will be tremendous pressure on them to get a result in this one after a piss poor performance midweek vs. Villareal which they were lucky to come out with a win. United have injury concerns, but this is a big team and someone will without a doubt step up. Everton on the other hand are in dire straits. Richarlson is out, as is Calvert-Lewin. Rodriguez is in the middle east, Coleman, Delph, Gomes out. Hell, Pickford is a doubt. This is a going to be a rag tag Everton side they put out.
United absolutely, desperately need a win, and honestly, I think they win this one comfortably, like a 2-0, 3-0 result. This is the kind of game that United thump their opponent, only to lose next game out. I rarely play United on the handicap, but I think a -1 (-125) is a good bet here.
I think you may find a nice price on ASG on the likes of Lingard or Cavani tomorrow, but I'm also look for cards for AWB and McTominnay. If I find a good price, I'll post it tomorrow.
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Manchester United vs Aston Villa
As a United fan, this game will have my full attention tomorrow morning. United are massive favorites in this one, and very overpriced, imo, but we are going to pick a few winning bets here. I honestly love the way United has played this year. They swarm to the ball, they pressure the opponents, they are confident with the ball. Varane and Maguire are a top pairing at CB both full of confidence, Shaw and AWB are terrific fullbacks. Pogba has been terrific, Fernandes is one of the best players in the league, and the addition of Ronaldo has fit like a key in a lock. But, I simply cannot see paying this kid of price on a handicap to win. Villa has a very very good side, not to be underrated. That midfield is terrific even without Grealish, and surely Bailey will be a miss, but Ings and Watkins are always dangerous on the attack. United needed a pk save at near the death to save the win last weekend vs West Ham. They always seem to let out a goal, be it flukey or on the counter. But United always have goals in them too.
My plays will simply be on the goals line.
o2.5 -145, o2.75 -118 both for 1 unit. I think United get at least 2 goals here, but their team total line is too juiced.
United 3-1 final score at 10/1. Put a small punt in on this one.
Ronaldo any time goal scorer -130. Ehhh, this is not a great bet to be honest, however, Ronaldo has been in top form all season and he'll get plenty of chances. He honestly should have had 2 pks in the last game he played, so I'll pay the juice here.
Fred to be carded +225. This one is kind of a no-brainer. McTomminay is more than likely out, Matic just played midweek so probably will not be in the team, and Villa's mf is pretty solid. Fred will be running all over the place and he's seemingly always jumping in late. AWB is another good bet for card at +300 but he is not nearly as reckless as Fred.
Think that's it. Lots of bets, will be up early here to watch. g'luck
- StevieDay1983 and newteech
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Serie A should be good this year! Champions sold off a lot of key pieces, and due to this I cannot see them repeating. Obviously Juve will be strong again, and adding Locatelli only going to help. Should be favorites to win. But the Special One in Roma is going to be some good drama. And AC Milan has quietly put together a decent side, although losing Donnarumma is a pretty massive loss.
For week one fixtures I'll pretty much just watch, lots of new coaches, not sure how formations will be setup and some players will certainly be rested after the Euro's early on.
However, I do like goals so I did do a double here of Lazio/Empoli o2.5/Torino/Atalanta o3 at +240. Lazio has been scoring goals for fun in the preseason, and they brought back Felipe Anderson from West Ham and he really flourished his last spell in Serie A and I'd expect more of that. Newly promoted side was tied for highest scoring team in Serie B last year, and I'd expect them to get into the attack against Lazio as well. Lazio has a number of holes in defense, and is switching formations a bit, I think this game will be plenty open. Atalanta is a relentlessly attacking team and has all of their key pieces back along with some nice additions (maybe Zupata leaves, but still there for now). Torino has a new coach after a pretty disappointing season, but they certainly have a team with goals in them (As well as allowing goals).
It's the first week so just for some fun here.
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Today's game odds are perplexing to me. RBL was a mess in their first match out last week against Mainz. And, frankly Mainz is not good, and had hardly any practices and extra players available due to Covid protocals. RBL lost a number of key pieces in the offseason. Obviously losing a coach of Nagelsmann's quality is going to hurt, but they also lost their CB pairing of Konate and Upamecano and it showed as Mainz not only scored off a corner where RBLcentral defense couldn't clear the ball, they had another called off from a corner, and Mainz had yet another golden chance from a corner. RBL was a disaster in defense against a team that really has nothing going forward. In the attack, Silva was like a man on an island with absolutely no service. He is a completely different striker than they are used to playing with and it's definitely going to take some time, but RBL was very VERY tame in the attack. Angelino who is usually a threat was not good. Sabitzer came on as a sub and really looked disinterested (he didn't have a great Euro either tbh). Forsberg was his usual solid self, and Kampl well, his best days are past him, but the only player that showed to be any decent getting dangerous was Nkunnku. I think RBL's xpg for the game was about 1 and that's being generous. Meanwhile Stuttgart are always looking to press and get into the attack. I'm not going to take too much out of their thrashing of the newly promoted Geuther Freuth side, but they had something like 23+ chances on goal which is a month's worth in a single game. And today you're giving me them at +575?
I try not to overreact after one match, but I'm taking a shot here at the away side at +575 to win and +425 DNB here. Maybe Red Bull comes to life, but I don't think this is anywhere near the same side as they've been the past few years.
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Early weeks of the season are always a bit tricky, but I'm going to tell you all right now, this one is a banker.
I'm a United supporter, and this team is the best they've put together in years. However, they are missing a number of integral parts here for the first few weeks. Varane should be a great partner for Maguire at CB but he's out. Sancho is the class you've been looking for on the wing, but again, will not be there. Rashford is a terrific attacking option, but he'll be out for weeks. That said, United will be fielding a terrific attacking lineup here. Fernandes, Pogba, Cavani, Greenwood will be absolutely hungry for goals, Martial hasn't been on the pitch for months, James is coming off a terrific Euro2020 performance, Donny VanDeBeek is an excellent player, Diallo is an up and coming attacking option, not to mention a number of their kids had a great pre-season, United are going to get some goals here. The issue is, and has been for a while, is they are going to concede as well. Leeds plays a very high pressure game, and they are not going to catch anyone by surprise this year, but this will be a find spot for them to start the season. Perhaps Phillips is not available for them, but either way, United has not shown they have been good enough to keep clean sheets, This is a cracker of an opener and I'm very much looking forward to this year. City looks like they should have the best of it on paper, and Liverpool and Chelsea have very good sides as well, but United really has a strong side here this year, and I'm certainly looking forward to the season.
For this match I'm definitely backing goals and have a big stake on o2.75 at -120. First game of the season doesn't warrant a big bet, but this is as big as I'll place this weekend. This game will get 3 goals almost certainly. g'luck
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Just some quick thoughts here.
Since United beat Chelsea in week 1 on August 18th, they have failed to score more than a single goal in a match since that time. And save Arsenal & Liverpool, they have played absolute garbage. I'm talking League 1 Rochdale, Partizan, Alkmaar, Newcastle, Palace, Astana, I'm talking competition they should have smashed and at least been able to score multiple goals against. Anyone backing them this week is crazy, imho. United can counter for sure. The likes of James, Martial, Rashford, AWB, they have speed to burn. But, any manager worth their salt understands this and will sit back, and watch United flounder. They cannot create. They are infuriating to support as a fan, and alas this is going to be just another lost season. I'd take a punt on the under here. u2.5 evs seems okay, I prefer u3 at about -160 or so
I like Arsenal at home here and will lay the -1 at -120 or so. Arsenal always play more attacking at home and I just think they have too much fire power for Palace to handle. Palace away is always a good fade too (except when they go to Old Trafford, obvisously) and tend to leak goals. I think this is a comfortable home win, 2-0, 3-1 something like that.
Liverpool/Spurs game is a game to watch, not to get involved in. Pool are way too heavily favored and ordinarily I'd back Spurs DNB or take a handicap, but Spurs is a team in flux here. I don't know wtf is going on behind the scenes, but this is not the same team as the past two years. Pool has a comfortable lead in the table, and is 4-0 at home this year, averaging 3 gpg which is formidable for sure, but Spurs has the talent to hang around. Either way, I'll watch, but if Liverpool wins 2-1, I'm not going to lay -190 or -200 on them so good for them
In the early game, I am most certainly going to be a Wolves fan. Wolves are just a better team, imho. I can get +160 for an away win and -120 for a DNB, sign me up for both here. Newcastle have managed 5 goals TOTAL in their first 9 games. And in the games I've seen them play, they manage very very few chances at all, so that's not deceiving. I can't back a team that can't score.
Wolves, Arsenal (-1) and take a punt on Norwich/United u.2.75
g'luck
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One game I like today is Bayer Leverkusen -1 (-120)
Leverkusen has a fantastic squad and are flying high with 3 goals in each of their first two league games. They have weapons all over the field, and wonderkid Havertz is simply fantastic. Home win seems very likely here.
I will lay the handicap here for a few reasons. Offseason has been very harsh for Hoffenheim. Injuries, attrition and they lost their coach to RB Leipzig and this is a massive loss in my eyes. Still without Kramaric, they lack in the dynamic goal scoring department.
Game should have goals, but I fancy a 2-0, 3-1 home win here.
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Last week was one of my best in a while. I had West Ham at +250 in a number of acca's and my biggest bet was the Liverpool/Arsenal over. Only game that really cost me money was United losing, but that's going to happen. Their expected goals were nearly 3 and the expected goals against was the second lowest for the weekend. It happens.
I've only made one bet for the weekend and its a big one. Man United +110. This is just nuts. I've stated for weeks I have Southampton tipped for the drop. United isn't great, no. But they are miles better here. They've played a very pleasing brand of soccer (yes I'm a yank) the past few weeks, and I just can't imagine how I'm getting +odds in this game. And if for no other reason there is absolutely no way United can afford to drop any more points after this start. I'll be back tomorrow night to post the rest of my thoughts, but this one is just a bad line in my eyes.
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Been a pretty good start to the season for me. Although I've been dead wrong on some teams, the bets I've put in have been so far, so good.
early game, someone up top found Norwich +1 at evs and well, I need that line available to me because I've seen nothing close to that. I like Norwich and put a small play on them at +0.75 at -110. Norwich seem to get goals for fun. They led the championship in goals last year at just over 2gpg and seem to picked up right where they left off. Chelsea a bit of a team in flux imo. Jury still out on Lamps as a manager and it's going to take him a bit to find his best 11. I'll tell you right now, they have major questions at the back. Seen both their games in full and they have issues. Midfield is strong for Chelsea but I'm not convinced they have any finishing power up front to score goals. I think Norwich hangs around and this one has 1-1, 2-2 written on it - I'm very happy taking the home team with +0.75 here.
I'm not getting involved in the Brighton/Southampton game at all, but said it before, I've got Saints tipped for the drop, so I'd again back the home side gun to my head.
Leicester seems a good play to me at Sheffield, but tbh, I can't get a great read on them at all, and I have to think home team will be doing all it can to scrape for points here. Pass again.
I absolutely think United will win at home vs Palace, but that's a heavy price to pay there. I wouldn't mind a United -1.25 at evs, but I'm not finding it, so I may play ingame with a slow start. United start the season in good form and I just don't think Palace has the pieces to challenge them here. I do like the 2-0 final score prop and may take a poke on that.
West Ham been one of those teams I've been dead wrong on this year, and well, I'm going for it again. It appears to me they should have a full roster to choose from and the talent they have I don't think I can pass them again getting +250 to win at +150 or so for DNB. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me but I'm on West Ham again here. Watford is nothing special and there'll be pressure on both teams here to get a result. More pressure for the home side, I'll take + odds all day long.
Game of the week is the late game Saturday, and unfortunately I'm not going to be around to watch or see lineups. But, to me this game is all about goals and o3 is worth a punt. Liverpool obviously has plenty of gk woes and that will be trouble. VVD can only do so much, and in my eyes, Arsenal are exactly the kind of team that will give Liverpool fits in the back. Massive pace in the likes of PEA and Pepe. Lacazette is a clinical finisher. And Dani Ceballas has been just lights out terrific so far. All that said, Liverpool is always a tough nut to beat at home and well, they still have a few great players in attack. Arsenal's defense is suspect at best. David Luiz certainly not the answer. This one just screams end to end action with plenty of chances.
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- i1_principe, Ulrik, StevieDay1983 and 1 other
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Manchester United
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Usually the second week gives an opportunity or two to take a punt on a team with long odds, however this weeks fixtures are extremely tricky in my eyes. I generally will try to take an overreaction to the market as a chance to make a play, but I'm not seeing it this week at all. I'll go through a few games quickly.
Liverpool should smash Southampton, I to have Southampton tipped for the drop, and Liverpool is obviously a strong side, however with Allison out and now potentially Adrian out well, I'm going to shy away by playing short odds here on the road side. This game screams pass to me so I will not be involved at all.
City/Spurs is the marquis matchup this week and rightfully so. Two top sides. And this is a chance to play a small overreaction. City went to London and stomped West Ham. Spurs at home struggled mightily against newly promoted Aston Villa. So now City at home are at -270 to Spurs? I'm afraid that's too high. You can get Spurs at +0.25 at +150 or so and that seems a pretty good punt. But, I am passing as Spurs still a bit short handed and again, I just think there are better spots to put my money to work.
Arsenal/Burnley could get my interest a bit. Arsenal played a sloppy opening fixture vs Newcastle and squeeked out a 1-0 win. But they played a weakened side. And it was a dreary rainy day at Newcastle. Burnley opened up their slate with a convincing 3-0 win vs a shit Southampton side, but I still think Burnley can make some noise here. Arsenal's defense is nothing to write home about, they play an attacking game and Ashley Barnes seems to score every game. This game has a strong interest to me at over 2.5 and over 2.75 and I'll shop around. I think we get 3-4 goals here pretty easily.
Everton/Watford is a very interesting early fixture. I like both teams quite a bit. I played both last week and was obviously quite disappointed in both results. Now, ordinarily I would come back and hit Everton heavily as they are at home and the odds look quite short as I'm only laying about -135 for a home win. BUT, with Watford losing so badly last week to an inferior Brighton side, I'm simply paring back here as I think the away side will come in with a chip on their shoulders. This is just a small, 1/4 unit play on the home side to win.
Now I know at this point in time I'm putting you to sleep. However, the next two games will have some money in play.
West Ham/Brighton. West Ham got crushed last week by City. This will happen. Brighton won 3-0 last week on the road. That is a bit of an aberration. Now, you are giving me West Ham at about +195 on the road. YES. This will be a play. I'll take them to win as well as DNB in parlays all day long. West Ham has a good side. They struggled last week, sure, but now I'm getting a massive overreaction from last week's results. Brighton in my eyes is a weak side. I'm getting near 2/1 for an away win with a superior side, who will be desperate to rebound and get points. This is exactly a kind of situation I'm hunting.
Aston Villa/ Bournemouth. I watched Villas game, did not see much of the Bournemouth fixture, but tbh this game is a simply play. I'm taking u2.75 goals here all day. These teams are both going to not want to give away points early, so a draw will do each well. Villa playing their first home game in the premier league in years will surely be hopping, but with so many new faces in the side, it will take time to gel, Bournemouth will want to play a pragmatic game and keep it close. Honestly I think this game ends at 1-1 but I could see one team held to nil. Either way, Villa played good defense for almost 80 minutes at Spurs and I think they'll do the same here.
Norwich City/Newcastle. Newcastle looked absolutely dreadful week one. And if you can't get up for the opening weekend, at home against a big side like Arsenal, well frankly I feel sorry for your supporters and your season prospects. That being said, I was expecting a bigger price on Norwich at home. But, at +120 or so, that's just not a big enough price for a home win. I do think the canaries will get the win, but I was fully expecting a +150 or so price against a bigger name. At this point I'd put a small punt on the home side, simply because I thought Newcastle was terrible and I don't see much prospect for immediate improvement.
gluck
- Marek76, StevieDay1983 and Mindfulness
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Sundays fixtures:
Leicester is too heavily favored in my eyes. Maguire is going to be a massive loss to the confidence of this team. I don't see why Wolves are so short, I mean they finished ahead of Leicester last year, no? Give me Wolves at +260 and DNB at +160 here all day. I don't think Wolves will finish as high as last year, but see no reason why they can't get a result here tomorrow.
I like Arsenal quite a bit this year. Lacazette/PEA and now Pepe in the attack. Tierney and Luiz should be good gets in defense. It make take a few weeks for this team to find their best 11, but I think they should have no issues vs Newcastle this week. Losing Rafa is going to be a a huge issue for Newcastle. I don't usually put a full unit on a first weekend fixture, but Arsenal are in my eyes the best bet of the weekend.
I will probably make a small bet on ManUnited this weekend, but in all honesty, this is a supporter bet more than anything else. Chelsea is going to feel the loss of Hazard for sure. United was able to keep Pogba which was key, and grabbed Maguire and AWB. They are at home, and I think they need a result. I'm really not sold at all on Ole as boss, but I'm not at all sold with Lampard as a manager either. I don't mind getting +125 here at home opening weekend.
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First week always tricky in my eyes. I try to keep it simple and don't play much early on. Here are my quick thoughts on Saturday's games
West Ham/City - this game is just a huge pass for me. I've got City tipped to win the league and they are just a fantastic side. But, I do like West Ham quite a bit this year. A full year with Lanzini, Anderson hit his form late - and I love the Fornals and Haller pickups. But, will take a while for this team to congeal. Meanwhile, City pretty much the same as last year. Kompany and Delph gone, Rodri on, this team will be fantastic this year. Just the odds aren't right for any play to me. City will be content with a win, West Ham will want to play well, early game, probably a 2-1, 3-1 final but who knows. No play.
Bournemouth/Sheffield United - this will be a small play. Both teams will want to do all they can to pickup points where they can. In my eyes, Sheffield United has not done near enough to improve their side to stay in the premier league. They should be relegated. Bournemouth at home at evs seems a great play here, but, just a small play nonetheless.
Burnley/Southampton - Another game where I like the home side. I have also tipped Southampton to drop. They are a great feeder club, but dont do anything to improve themselves. Burnley at home is strong and Dyche is a great manager. Shop around, get a great price and anything above +175 or so is a good play in my eyes.
Crystal Palace/Everton - CP is a team in flux yet again. Zaha doesn't want to be there and in my eyes, this is a club that just doesn't do enough to improve themselves at all. Sell AWB for a nice profit but who they bring in? Seems to me they are always losing players and never bringing in quality in return. Everton is a team that I absolutely loved their transfer season. Gomes, Delph, Kean and Iwobi in. Only significant loss was Gueye. I mean, this was probably the best business in the premier league this summer. But, this doesn't necessarily equate to immediate results. Either way, I'm all in on Everton this game if I can get +140 or better.
Watford/Brighton - two years back, Watford finished a point above Brighton in the table. The last year, Watford may significant improvements, while Brighton stayed the same, and well Watford shot up the table, improved nearly 10 points and 5 positions, while Brighton fell to just 2 points above the drop. Watford looks to be about the same, and Brighton took action and brought in a number of players to help improve their side. I think this will take some time to gel so I like the home side here at evs or better.
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13 hours ago, dylanphan said:
Two games have my interest here tomorrow in Germany.
First one, Paderborn vs St Pauli. Paderborn score for fun at home with 36 goals in 12 home matches. I'm not that smart, but that looks to be 3 goals per game. In fact, they've scored at LEAST 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home games. St Pauli no slouches, sitting 4th in the table so I expect this to be a very competitive game. Team that is at home loves to score against another good team? to me that simply means goals.
o1.5 1H +125
o3 -120 BIG BET
The other game looks to be an absolute cracker is Frankfurt/Hoffenheim.
For my money, Rebic/Jovic/Haller is the best attacking force right now in Bundesliga. Jovic top of the table with 15 goals scored and 5 assist, and Haller has chipped in 11 goals and 8 assists and Rebic is a super attacking presence too. This team is fun to watch. Hoffenheim is a super attacking team that seemingly comes at you from all angles. They can posses the ball, hit you on the counter or just play box to box with you, Hoffenheims problem is they are leaky in defense. I think both teams almost assuredly score in this game, and I'll take punts at o3, o3.5, o4 and o4.5. Usually when I anticipate high scoring games like this, they end 1-0 or 1-1 so buyer beware, but if this game gets to 5, Party at Dylanphans house next weekend.
Paderborn game busted, but MY GOD, bless you Franfkfurt. Absolutely made my weekend here.
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Two games have my interest here tomorrow in Germany.
First one, Paderborn vs St Pauli. Paderborn score for fun at home with 36 goals in 12 home matches. I'm not that smart, but that looks to be 3 goals per game. In fact, they've scored at LEAST 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home games. St Pauli no slouches, sitting 4th in the table so I expect this to be a very competitive game. Team that is at home loves to score against another good team? to me that simply means goals.
o1.5 1H +125
o3 -120 BIG BET
The other game looks to be an absolute cracker is Frankfurt/Hoffenheim.
For my money, Rebic/Jovic/Haller is the best attacking force right now in Bundesliga. Jovic top of the table with 15 goals scored and 5 assist, and Haller has chipped in 11 goals and 8 assists and Rebic is a super attacking presence too. This team is fun to watch. Hoffenheim is a super attacking team that seemingly comes at you from all angles. They can posses the ball, hit you on the counter or just play box to box with you, Hoffenheims problem is they are leaky in defense. I think both teams almost assuredly score in this game, and I'll take punts at o3, o3.5, o4 and o4.5. Usually when I anticipate high scoring games like this, they end 1-0 or 1-1 so buyer beware, but if this game gets to 5, Party at Dylanphans house next weekend.
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Going to wake up early, really looking forward to Spurs/Arsenal game. No strong lean in that match, but do feel Arsenal are being undervalued, taking them +0.5 would make sense. Be honest here, I think Poch is overrated as a manager. He has a nice system, has a keen eye for young talent, and gets a lot of his players so something certainly can be said for that, but his in game management is questionable.
Case in point, Kane's first game back in what, 6 weeks against Burnley of all teams, and leaves him in for a full 90? Yeah, he scored a goal, that's well and good, but bigger fish to fry and Burnley tough at home. And then he was outmatched vs a struggling Chelsea side, and again Kane in for full game. Very questionable strikers brought in in the likes of Soldado, Llorente, et al, I'm not overwhelmed.
Anyway, I fully expect Man United to stomp Southampton tomorrow. I'll play them 1H, on the handicap, hell, maybe even a -2 here. Two teams going in exact opposite directions, United's forms been top notch and they are at home, no reason to believe this is even close.
I also do like Wolves here at home quite a bit, Cardiff on the road a bit of a horror show with just 9 goals scored in 13 matches. Wolves play a nice attacking style. I really do like Wolves to bounce back here after two disappointing performances, home cooking, I'll lay -0.75 here.
Lastly, I really think Burnley getting a great price at home, seeing close to 2/1 for home win vs Palace. How soon we forget how great Burnley were at home last year? Burnley won 3 of their last 4 at home with the other a draw, including a win vs Spurs. This is a good price, definitely worth a punt.
:cheers:
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Well done Neubs. Between you and me we wiped clean on the early slate of games
Premier League Ante Post Predictions 2022/23
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Some quick thoughts here.....
In my eyes, the quality gap between the top two and the rest is massive. Man City should run away and hide with the title this year as they are just too much too handle, too deep. The only possible distraction will be their failure to win the CL and Pep will certainly put a large emphasis on winning that title. Don't sleep in Alvarez on this squad, he's really good.
Liverpool lose Mane, sure, but there is still talent to burn and they bring in 23 year old Nunez and Luis Diaz will now have a full year under his belt. Got to be careful to manage Salah's workload as he tends to get the niggly injury from time to time, but still Klopp is a top manager so I would trust in him to do fine with this squad.
After that I'd back Chelsea for 3rd. I really like Tuchel's approach and I know they've lost a few cb's and missed out on Konde, but they did bring in Koulibaly from Napoli and I think you'll see this team attack a lot, which may hide some of their defensive flaws.
4th-5th-6th I'm guessing some variation of Spurs, Arsenal and United. I support United, but this team is a mess. BEST case scenario, Rashford comes back in full health and has found his scoring boots, Martial compliments him, Ronaldo stops pouting, and Ericksen/Fernandes create tons of chances. They still lack a great holding/defensive MF but McTomminay is good enough and a CB tandem of Varane and MArtinez are very capable with the ball at their feet (Something that you can't say for the likes of Maguire and Lindelof). Team still has a lot of youth, we'll see what EtH can do here. Arsenal up and coming squad who i think will be a bit uneven at times. Weakest manager of the top 6, imho will hinder some performances. If they can take care of business against teams they should beat and not have any lapses, I can see a 4th place finish. Conte is a hired gun, who if he can't win trophies will move on to his next position. I'm not 100% sold on Spurs here, BUT, talent is there. Bringing in Kuluveski last year from Serie A was a great move and now with Richarlson, you will have a ton of threats on the counter and the wings, and not need to rely on getting the ball to Kane or relying on a piece of Son brilliance. They'll need it though because I don't rate their back line all that much and a few of their offensive guys never really known for getting back after it on defense. Can beat any team on any given day, but I don't see the overall depth there to make it much higher than 4th, tbh.
Teams I think could challenge for Europe:
Newcastle - throwing around cash like nobodies business, we'll just have to see how this team meshes though. I think they are top 10 for sure, and could they be this year's Leicester and really challenge for a title? Not sure they are that good, but I think they could get up to 3rd if things break just right. Howe always gets the most out of his players for sure, but they just lack the top end talent the clubs above them have.
West Ham - Moyes is a really good manager, except when he was at Old Trafford where he just shit the proverbial bed, in my eyes. And right now he has a very talented Hammers side. Rice staying is huge. Can't expect Soucek to have the season he had last year, but Antonio fully healthy, Bowen, Benrahma and they bring in Scamacca from Serie A where he created tons of chances last year. I think Hammers can surprise and if they can find a way to defend and not need rely on their gk's who aren't the best, they will be a fun team.
Teams I think will get relegated
Bournemouth I think the weakest of them all.
Leeds, gonna be tough for them to stay up with all they lost. As an American of course this team I'm familiar with their coach and a number of players, this Aaronson kid is going to be good, but this is an absolute terrible spot for him. I'm sure these guys will run around like chickens with their heads cut off and be annoying to play against at times, but not deep enough or good enough to stay up.
Fulham would be the other obvious choice, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Wolves go down as they have had their cupboard picked pretty bare there over the past year or two.