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sap

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  1. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Weekend Non-League and FA Cup 1st/2nd October   
    Boreham Wood v Wrexham
    Somehow Gary Mills is still in a job despite the fact Macclesfield beat them 3-0 on Tuesday night. Macclesfield dominated the game as well and Wrexham looked desperate. I thought he would be sacked if he lost that, but he gets another chance against Boreham Wood. It doesn't look an easy game though as the home side have only lost two of their 12 games this term and are unbeaten in their last five. Now they have drawn half their matches, including three of their last four, but I think they were good efforts as they drew with Aldershot and Barrow who are both above them in the table. The other draw was against Solihull last Saturday, but they had come of the back of two very good draws themselves. It is also worth pointing out they beat Dagenham five games ago as well. They look a stronger side than Wrexham and the 13/10 about a home win with Marathon is well worth taking. I am sure even Wrexham fans wouldn't mind losing as surely it would be the end of Mills' reign.
     
    Forest Green Rovers v Barrow
    The prices here make little sense given it is 2nd v 3rd. Barrow put in a superb performance to beat Lincoln in their last away game and then landed the Nap bet for us last Saturday against York. They look genuine promotion contenders and there is noway they should be as big as Marathon's 22/5. FGR are obviously a good side and they are unbeaten at home, but some of their performances haven't been that convincing. They only beat Bromley and Braintree 1-0 in their last two matches and both of those are in for a relegation scrap this season. They will have to raise their game against Barrow and although I would still have them as favourites it makes little sense to have them long odds on. Barrow should be around the 15/8 mark so they have to be a play at the prices as they have a good chance of gaining the 3 points.
     
    York v Aldershot
    Granted York’s home form is strong having only lost the once and Aldershot have only won once away, but I have to back Aldershot at just over 2/1 with Marathon. York look low on confidence at the moment and like Wrexham the fans probably wouldn’t be too upset to lose this one as they want their manager to leave as well. Aldershot have drawn half of their away matches, but their win did come at Dover so they can put in a good away performance. The basic stats suggest Aldershot will find this tough to win, but Aldershot have much the better side and York do look there for the taking at the moment. The crucial thing though is the price is big enough to take a chance that Aldershot can bring their home form to an away game as they did against Dover.
     
    Altrincham v Morpeth
    The home side are still to win in the league and just beat Gainsborough in the previous round. Jim Harvey is still struggling to turn the team around since becoming manager and this looks a very tricky FA Cup tie for them. They face last season’s FA Vase winners Morpeth
    who beat Blyth Spartans 4-2 in the previous round. Given Blyth were top of the Evo-Stik Northern Premier at the time and Altrincham are currently bottom of the National League North there isn’t much difference between those two sides. Morpeth come from the strongest Step 5 league in the country and they look worth backing at BetVictor’s 4/1 to cause another upset.
     
    North Leigh v Folkestone
    It is surprising that Folkestone are such big favourites for this game. The Ryman Premier side aren’t in the best of form at the moment and are currently mid-table. North Leigh play at the level below, but are only just outside the play-offs in the Evo-Stik Southern Division One South & West. They have won five of their league nine league games and are unbeaten in their last 5. With home advantage I think they will fancy their chances here and the 85/40 with BetVictor looks on the large side.
     
    Slough v Dartford
    Slough were a massive price to win the Evo-Stik Southern Premier before the season started, but they are making a mockery of those odds as they top the table having won 9 of their 11 league games and only losing once. I think they will be bang their come the end of the season and this could be a league fixture next term. Dartford will be a good test for the home side as they are just outside the play-offs in the National League South, but they are much better at home than they have been away and Slough have the advantage of a 3G pitch. I think Slough are up to winning this and I would have them shorter than BetVictor’s 2/1.
     
    FA Cup acca
    I was unfortunate not to land a decent 6 fold in the previous round and this time I am looking to land a 4 fold which pays just over 5/2 with BetVictor. Burgess Hill should have too much for lowly Cadbury Heath. Eastbourne did us a big favour in the last round and they look to have a gift of a draw against Hadley. I am surprised to see St Albans are only 1/2 to beat Worthing at home as St Albans are going really well in the league compared to Worthing who aren’t. The final team are Hampton & Richmond who are going great guns in the National League South and travel to a Taunton side who are mid-table to levels below.
  2. Like
    sap reacted to bromsgrovegreen in Mid week non-league 27th/28th September   
    I like the optimism on frickley so I'll be having a few quid as well.
    Addpeas Billericay tip looks good as well, they have won the last six in all competitions and at odds against look value
    I also like his Macclesfield and whitehawk tips and will be following him on those as well
    I also fancy Tonbridge at Merstham, leiston at home to sudbury, weymouth at Cinderford and kings lynn home to kings langley, I will be doing doubles and singles and hopefully make some profit
  3. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Mid week non-league 27th/28th September   
    Macclesfield v Wrexham

    The value is starting to go on the home side, but at odds against I think they are worth backing. I wrote on Saturday that if Wrexham lost to Chester than Gary Mills would be out of a job. They managed to get a point although it was basically a game between two very mediocre sides who didn’t even manage a shot on target between them! Mills in his quotes after the game hinted that he knew his time might be up soon and I get the feeling that unless they have gone on a long unbeaten run prior to losing then the next defeat will be his last game in charge. It might well come here at Macclesfield who are having a solid season and are already 5 points in front of their visitors. They have won four of their last five with the defeat coming to Eastleigh where they probably deserved something from the game. It is clear that Wrexham’s problem is scoring goals with only 9 in 11 games so far. On Saturday they could have played all afternoon and they wouldn’t have scored. Away from home they haven’t been great defensively either letting in 11 in 5 games having lost 3 of them. Macclesfield look better and it might well be that one goal will be enough here and Marathon’s 21/20 is the right side of value.

    Hemel Hempstead v Whitehawk

    It is no surprise that Whitehawk are improving fast now Richard Hill is in charge and he has brought massive changes to the squad. It was needed and he has brought good players into the squad. They have won their last two league games and beat East Thurrock in the FA Cup which I tipped up. I was going to put them up again on Saturday, but the price had gone and I must admit I am surprised they are as big as they are to win this. Hemel have also improved of late after a shocking start to the season and they are unbeaten in four league games. They did need a 2nd attempt at getting past Herne Bay who are two levels below them though. There have been an amazing 29 goals in Hemel’s last 6 games (scored 13 conceded 16) and with Whitehawk looking strong up front and solid defensively I think they have a clear edge in that regards. They also blew a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 lead to Bath on Saturday. Marathon are just over 2/1 on an away win and that looks a tasty price.

    Billericay v Folkestone

    The home side only won one of their first six league games, but they have won their last three scoring 10 goals in the process. Folkestone didn’t start too badly back in the Ryman Premier, but they have only won one of their last six games and they lost 6-1 to Dulwich on Saturday after going a goal up as well. With Billericay in good scoring form and Folkestone’s defence looking dodgy I think Betway’s  6/5 looks a solid bet.

    Buxton v Corby

    I am taking a bit of a flyer with a couple of bets in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier. Corby have had a bit of a nightmare start to life after being relegated from the National League North last season. It took until Saturday for them to register their first win in the league. Now on the face of it you would think I was crazy to want to back them away at top of the table Buxton, but there are two important points. First of all the win was against Blyth Spartans who are 2nd in the table. They looked like they would blow a 3-1 lead as Blyth got it back to 3-3 with goals in the 87th and 89th minute, but fair play to Corby as they found an injury time winner. That takes some doing for a side who had yet to win this season against such a good team. The second point is for some reason the reverse fixture was played on September 17th and Corby put in a very good performance to get a 1-1 draw. On league positions it is easy to see why Buxton are 4/9 shots, but based on their last two games Corby are clearly a much improved outfit and the 31/5 that Marathon are going is way too big. Buxton also lost on Saturday to Ilkeston who had lost 3 of their first 4 league games. Obviously it is going to be a hard game for Corby, but if they play like they have the last twice then they should be around 2/1 shots not over 6/1!

    Matlock v Frickley

    I was kicking myself a bit on Saturday as I had Frickley on my shortlist, but left them out of the bets. They duly won their 3rd game on the bounce having lost their first 6 games. Again we clearly have a side who have improved massively of late, but the bookmakers are still pricing them up on league position and the fact they had 1 point after 8 games. Now the three wins and the draw before it have all come at home so there is a small concern that they won’t continue the run away from home, but given they haven’t had a chance to prove it one way all the other, I am more than happy to take the 7/2 with Betway. Matlock have won 3 drawn 3 and lost 3 and that record pretty much sums them up. I doubt there is much between these two sides and that makes the 7/2 a massive price.

  4. Like
    sap reacted to 4p5p. in Mid week non-league 27th/28th September   
    I agree with addpea regarding Frickley (he beat me to the posting) to get a result at Matlock Town .
    The display against Marine on Saturday was the best for many a while. The way they played the ball around was most impressive considering the position in the      table they are. They controlled Marine from start to finish and the result was never in doubt. The new gaffer Lee Morris ( ex No9 for the club 80+ goals in 230+ games) has only been in place for four games (all at home) and they have won 10points from a possible 12 points including beating high flying Blyth Spartans last week.
    Morris has opened his black book and brought in 4-5 new players and seems to have got rid of the sub-standard players. The incoming players have made a big difference. The forward from Scunthorpe is non stop all game and his fellow new arrival striker Andy Ofosu is an utter pest ( see photo below). Big and strong and turns defenders inside out. Midfielder Luke Hindsley aka 'The Machine' was outstanding Saturday. Scoring a great header and could easily have had three. He is a Frank Lampard type of player. The new right back looks very comfortable in this league and the new centre half Meynall has also played higher. There is renewed optimism up Frickley at the moment. But i am waiting to see how things with the new boss are after a dozen games before forming an opinion. Hence the little 'saver' on the Draw at 3/1 to cover the bet. But based on Saturday's display the 7/2 is very much worth a nibble.
    1.5pts Frickley Win - 7/2  0.5pts Draw 3/1
     

  5. Like
    sap got a reaction from Kunal888 in Non-League 24th September   
    I dont fancy much this weekend.Only on my list is southport
  6. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League 24th September   
    Wrexham v Chester

    Let us start with the live BT Sport game on Saturday lunchtime and a game that is a massive derby. I don’t usually like betting in derby games because I do think form goes out of the window a bit, but there is definite value in backing Chester. If I was able to I would be backing Gary Mills to be the next National League manager to lose his job, because Wrexham look a long way from being a team who will be in play-off contention this season. To be fair they are unbeaten at home and have only conceded one at the Racecourse Ground, but they haven’t been playing well and were fortunate to beat Sutton in their last home game. Last Saturday they were embarrassingly beaten by Woking and I think if they lose this match then Mills will be looking for a new job. A couple of weeks ago I put up Aldershot to beat Chester partly based on the fact Chester’s away form had been shocking. They got a good point though that afternoon and they have won both home games since. Chester go into this game with the pressure off and their players will certainly be up for it. If they can frustrate Wrexham then their fans will get on the players backs and they will be under huge pressure. I don’t think there is a great deal between these two sides either so the fact Chester are 3/1 (various) makes them a value bet.

    Barrow v York

    That Aldershot bet I mentioned above was the obvious bet that weekend and not surprisingly other non-league tipsters did put them up. I am fully expecting Barrow to be popular with the other non-league tipsters this weekend and at odds against they do look a fantastic bet. Even looking at the basic facts it is hard to understand how Barrow aren’t odds on here. Barrow are unbeaten in five home games having won three of them, whilst York have only picked up a point in five away games scoring four and conceding 13. That point also came on the first day of the season at Maidstone. Although their home form has been better, the fans were calling for Jackie McNamara to be sacked after losing 1-0 at home to Dover last weekend. They are probably being a little harsh as I don’t think he has the best side to work with, however they haven’t scored in three games and that has to be a worry. Barrow are quietly putting themselves into play-off contenders and they are now 6 games unbeaten. Drawing to Boreham Wood and Bromley in their last two home games weren’t the best results in the world, but with York being so low on confidence, especially up front, one goal could be enough. They also come into this match on the back of a fantastic win at Lincoln last Saturday. Barrow are 3 points off the top and York are just two points away from the relegation zone and I think the 9 point gap between the two sides is a genuine reflection of where these two sides are at right now. I make Barrow 4/6 chances to win this so make them Nap’s at 11/10 with Paddy Power and Marathon.

    Eastleigh v Sutton

    Eastleigh remain unbeaten since Ronnie Moore took over as boss a run of 7 games. They had defensive issues last season and they are looking a lot more solid at the back this time around. It was a bit disappointing that they only drew with Southport in their last home game, but Southport made it hard for them in what was Steve Burr’s first game in charge of them. Since then they got a very good point at Forest Green Rovers and then beat Macclesfield away last Saturday. I’m not even sure they are playing at their best as well and they should continue to improve under Moore. Sutton got a vital 3 points against Tranmere after 3 defeats. Their problem has been scoring goals and there winner was mainly down to a defensive mistake last week. Tranmere weren’t great either which helped Sutton and I think the result said more about lacklustre Tranmere than the home side. I think Eastleigh should be odds on for this so Paddy Power’s 6/5 is worth a bet.

    Alfreton v Kidderminster

     A couple of weeks ago I wrote about how many goals there had been in Alfreton games of late only for them to win 1-0! In their last league game they lost to Boston by the odd goal in 5 though to revert to type. Somehow they kept a clean sheet in the FA Cup to beat Fylde last Saturday, but Fylde had numerous chances and just couldn’t score. Alfreton have also lost their best player Dan Bradley to Fylde this week. Kidderminster are in good form and have won four of their last five league games. They beat Tamworth 6-0 in their last league game and then put another 4 past them without reply in the FA Cup on Saturday. They look like they could be capable of bouncing straight back up to the National League and they look value at Marathon’s 21/20.

    AFC Telford v Chorley

    Kidderminster’s only defeat in their last five came surprisingly against Telford, I say surprisingly because Telford have lost their other three of their last four league games. They lost in a replay in the FA Cup to Worcester on Tuesday and to be fair it shouldn’t have even been a replay as Worcester were dominate in the first game. Chorley have started the season really strongly and have only lost once so far this term. They had a comfortable victory in the FA Cup last weekend as well and they look worth backing at 11/8 (Coral) to continue their strong run of form.

  7. Like
    sap reacted to bromsgrovegreen in Non-League 24th September   
    My shortlist comprises of barrow, dagenham, boreham wood, forest green and Macclesfield in the national league.                                               Barrow as mentioned look great value against a very average york side, bromley pull the odd good result out of the bag but dagenham at odds against appeal. Forest green just shy of evens appeal at braintree, boreham wood 11-8 at solihull appeal although Solihull have tightened up and picked up two cracking away points in their last two games both with clean sheets . Macclesfield are odds  against at guiseley, I'm tempted as I think they might nick it by the odd goal, guiseley are quite resilient though. 
    Like I said just a short list and havent done anything concrete yet 
     
  8. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in National League and FA Cup 17th September   
    Altrincham v Gainsborough
    I opposed Altrincham on Tuesday night and Nuneaton had an even easier evening than I thought they would as they won 4-1. That made it 19 goals conceded in their last 6 games and they have still yet to win this season. They are due for a windfall as Duncan Watmore’s 10th appearance for Sunderland triggered a clause in the transfer deal between the two sides. That will be spent on the team, but that isn’t going to come quick enough for this game and I am happy to take 11/8 about a Gainsborough side who have put two good results together as they beat AFC Telford last weekend and Halifax on Tuesday night. I am sure Jim Harvey will sort Altrincham out, especially with that money to spend, but they look a poor side at the moment.
    East Thurrock v Whitehawk
    Another game with two sides from the same division and I fancy Whitehawk to progress. Getting Richard Hill in as boss was a very good move and he should be able to sort out what is a strong Whitehawk team on paper. They put in a very good effort to beat a Hampton & Richmond side who were joint top going into the game. They should continue to improve under Hill. East Thurrock have done better than I thought they would after promotion, but they have still only won one of their last 6 games and Whitehawk certainly have the stronger side. BetVictor’s 19/10 about an away win looks too big in my view.
    Eastbourne v Met Police
    I can’t believe Eastbourne are only 4/6 to win this game. Granted they have only won one of their last 6 games and it was disappointing they lost to Welling 3-1 on Tuesday night, but their home form has been strong so far this season on their new 3G pitch. They have won 3 of 5, drawn with Ebbsfleet and their first defeat came against top of the table Maidenhead last weekend. On the whole they have been playing well this season and certainly well enough to see off a poor Met Police side from the level below. They are currently bottom of the Ryman Premier and have only picked up 2 points from their first 7 games. Eastbourne have only conceded 3 times at home and Met Police are struggling for goals. The 4/6 with Betfred and Stan James looks a big price.
    Sutton Coldfield v Hereford
    On the face of it wanting to back a team away from home at 4/5 (Bet365) when they play in the league below their hosts would seem a crazy decision, but I think Hereford are value even at those odds. They already look like they are going to run away with the Southern League Division One South & West. They are 7 out of 7 having scored 22 and conceded just 3. They clearly have a team that could be competitive in the league above and they will fancy a cup run in their first season in the FA Cup since reforming a couple of years ago. Sutton Coldfield play in the level above (Evo-Stik Northern Premier), but they are in the relegation zone having failed to win so far this season. Blyth Spartans put 5 past them last Saturday and I reckon there probably isn’t a great deal between Blyth and Hereford. If I am right with that last comment then the 4/5 is worth taking.
    FA Cup Acca
    I am not one for tipping up acca’s usually, but when it comes to the early rounds of the FA Cup I always look for a few of the short price teams who look solid and put them in a acca. Last season it proved profitable and hopefully it will again on Saturday. Halifax travel to a side 3 leagues below them in Ashton Athletic and shouldn’t have too many issues in beating them. Rugby Town have only one once in the league this season and travel to an in form Brackley side who are two leagues above them. Indeed I am surprised they aren’t shorter than 1/2. Harrogate are flying high in the National League North and travel to a Bridlington side who are 3 leagues below them. St Albans are doing very well in the National League South this season and they travel to a Dereham Town side who are struggling 2 leagues below. Havant & Waterlooville have a very strong team for the Ryman Premier and have won all their games since losing their first. They host Highworth Town who play 2 leagues below them. Histon caused a massive shock in the FA Cup when beating Leeds on ITV a few years ago, but they are a poor side now having got one point, scoring twice and conceding 18. They have suffered successive relegations and it could be a third. Wealdstone should have way too much for them at home. The acca pays 5.8/1 with Stan James.
  9. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League 10th September   
    Dover v Forest Green Rovers

    Quite why BT Sport thought it was a good idea trying to compete with the Glasgow and Manchester Derbies I don’t know, but this game is live on BT at 12.15pm. I’m really interested to see how Forest Green get on and I think they are worth backing. As I said last week they really have hit their stride now and even though they weren’t impressive in their first three wins, they have looked impressive in their last 3. Granted they only beat Chester 2-1 last weekend, but they were very comfortable and they should have won by more. Dover have shown glimpses of last season’s form when they got to the play-offs (losing to FGR in the semi-finals), but they have also struggled at times, with the 4-1 loss to Boreham Wood being the pick of those. They look just the sort of side who could give any team in the division a strong test at their best, but will end the season in mid-table as they lack consistency. Forest Green should be favourites for this and I was surprised to see 2/1 (Bet 365 and Marathon) available. It certainly isn’t a gimmie for the away side, but that price is just too big not to take advantage of.

    Aldershot v Chester

    I suspect every tipster going will be tipping up Aldershot this week because they are the obvious bet of the week. Aldershot are 4/4 at home having scored 8 and conceded just once with that goal being scored by Tranmere last week. Tranmere were probably a little unlucky not to get something from the game, but to be fair it was still an impressive performance from Aldershot. They now need to follow that up by beating a Chester side who have only managed one point in four away games so far and that came thanks to a wonder goal at Boreham Wood. Indeed apart from Chester’s two big wins at home they have looked pretty poor so far this season. Obvious bets don’t always win and I don’t always like tipping them up, but at the end of the day the 5/6 (Ladbrokes and Bet Victor) looks a massive price and I would have them in the 8/13 area so I have to get involved.

    Eastleigh v Southport

    Eastleigh weren’t at their best last weekend against North Ferriby, but then they didn’t really need to be and they covered the -1 handicap for us by winning 2-0. I am putting up the same bet again this weekend as they host a mangerless Southport side who have conceded 15 and scored just twice in losing all 4 away games so far. Southport are now looking for their 9th manager in 3 years and they really need to get the appointment right if they are to survive in this division. In the short term though it is hard to see them getting anything out of this and Eastleigh should cover the -1 handicap again. Paddy Power go 11/10 about them doing so.

    Alfreton v Harrogate

    They have been a staggering 40 goals in Alrefton’s last 6 matches which averages out at nearly 7 goals a game! On those stats I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off betting on goals again in this one, but the bet I am putting up is Harrogate to win at a huge 31/20. Alfreton have lost 4 of those 6 games and they are struggling to fill the bench. They had just two subs last Saturday and only three in their 5-3 defeat at Worcester on Tuesday night. Harrogate are still unbeaten and bar a 94 minute penalty from Curzon last Saturday, they would have won their last 6 games. They have got a very good side this season and look sure to be in the promotion hunt in what is a very tough National League North this season. I make them odds on shots to win this so at the price they look the best bet of the weekend. There will probably be plenty of goals, but I will take a 1-0 away win!

  10. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League 3rd September   
    It is Non-League Day tomorrow so if you get the chance (sadly I am working) go and take in a match. Also no bookie at this stage has priced up the FA Cup matches this weekend and I would be surprised if anyone did at this stage.
    Chester v Forest Green Rovers

    All three bets come in the National League and the first of them is Forest Green. After a tricky start they really have hit their stride winning their last five matches. They weren’t that convincing when winning the first three of them, but their last two performances in scoring a combined 9 goals past Maidstone and Southport were superb. The opening goal at Maidstone last Saturday was a superb team effort and shows how dangerous they can be when they get the passing game right. I tipped Chester up on Monday in the hope that the 4-0 win against Sutton last Saturday kick started their season. It didn’t and they ended up being the first team to lose to Woking this season. That was a poor effort and given how easily Forest Green have swept aside a couple of clubs who will be in and around Chester come the end of the season, I would expect them to do that to Chester. Marathon’s 39/40 on an away win is too big in my view.

    Dagenham & Redbridge v Boreham Wood

    It was disappointing that Dagenham didn’t back up their superb performance against Wrexham when losing to Sutton on Monday. They are a young squad though and it is only natural that their lack of experience is going show at times this season. It is one of the reasons why I think they will struggle to properly contend for the title this season. Whatever happens I do think they will continue to be very strong at home this season and I am surprised they aren’t shorter than Marathon’s 39/40 to pick up another three home points. Granted Boreham Wood have drawn three of their last five games, but they haven’t won in that period and I struggle to see them coping with Dagenham’s class.

    Eastleigh v North Ferriby

    I thought Ronnie Moore was a strange choice of manager for Eastleigh given he has always managed in the north and he doesn’t know this division. He does have a first class squad to manage though and he has got off to a great start winning both their games since he took over. Monday’s 5-0 hammering over Bromley was a top class performance and they play a North Ferriby side that have looked very poor on their travels so far. They have managed just one goal whilst conceding 10 in losing all three of their matches. They really should have picked something up at Aldershot last week as they missed some gilt edged chances, but that was mainly due to Aldershot taking their foot off the gas in the second half after being 2 up at half time. It also proves that scoring goals is going to be very tricky for them this season as they lack a clinical finisher. It wouldn’t surprise me if Eastleigh won this at a canter, but they should win it by at least two and Coral’s even money on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal.

  11. Like
    sap got a reaction from pavlovicbranka7 in Bank Holiday Weekend Non-League 27th-29th August   
    Today I fancy rushall(in great form actually),buxton(saturday they already kicked off can keep up their good form),st neots(can overcome that opponent normally and price is value to take a chance) and bognor(looking to keep their good form,didnt lose their last 4 matches)
     
  12. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Bank Holiday Weekend Non-League 27th-29th August   
    North Ferriby v Barrow I tipped North Ferriby to finish bottom this season and although they have managed to remain unbeaten at home, I still think they have been fairly fortunate to pick up those 7 points. Granted Barrow have yet to win away from home yet, but they were superb in the 2nd half against Braintree on Saturday and if they carry that form into this game then they shouldn't have too many problems here and are worth backing at 6/5 with Marathon.   Sutton v Dagenham & Redbridge I was really impressed with Dagenham on Saturday when they beat Wrexham 3-0 on BT Sport. Some of the passing was top notch and the ball that helped set up the opening goal was one of the best assists I have seen at this level. If anything Sutton's 3G pitch should encourage Dagenham's passing football and given the fact Dagenham have one all bar one game this season it is hard to understand why they are over 2/1 (Marathon) to win this game. Sutton will be looking to bounce back from a 4-0 defeat to Chester on Saturday, but Dagenham look promotion contenders so far and that price is silly.   Woking v Chester Speaking of Chester they have the perfect chance to build on that 4-0 win against Woking. Chester have been pretty inconsistent given their other win was Dagenham's only defeat of the campaign. Woking however have been terrible so far and I don't know how Gary Hill is going to get them out of their current situation. They have one of the lowest budgets in the division and have just one point to their name. Losing 4-1 to York on Saturday after going a goal up was a pretty shocking effort and if Chester do build on that 4-0 win then Bet 365's 2/1 is going to look massive come 4.50pm. Chester should be favourites.   Wrexham v York York haven't exactly convinced so far this season and even though they beat Woking easily as I mention above I don't think that exactly accounts to an awful lot. However I do think a couple of things are important. First of all they were 4-1 up after 25 minutes so the game was basically over from that point, which meant they didn't have a tough 90 minutes ahead of this game just 48 hours later. The 2nd point is that scoring 4 goals should give them a fair bit of confidence. Wrexham looked poor against Dagenham on Saturday and although they have yet to lose or concede a goal at home, they have scored just once. This is obviously a tougher game for York than Woking, but I suspect these two sides are at a pretty similar level right now so that makes the 13/5 worth taking.   Welling v Chelmsford Chelmsford have been a little disappointing so far given I thought they had a promotion chance, but they are still within touching distance after a comfortable 2-0 win over Oxford City on Saturday. Welling have been shocking so far this season after relegation having failed to win a game and they have lost all 3 at home. A long journey to Truro on Saturday won't have helped in regards to this game either. Quite why Marathon have got the away side at 19/10 I don't know as Chelmsford should have the class edge here.   Weston-Super-Mare v St Albans I am a little annoyed I didn't have a little bet on St Albans at the start of the season as Ian Allison really turned their season around last season and they looked like potential improvers. That has been confirmed so far as they currently sit in 3rd place in the table having lost just one of their opening six games. Weston have started fairly well themselves, but were well beaten by Margate on Saturday and I think St Albans are the better team. I am surprised Marathon have them at just over 2/1.   Gloucester v Boston Boston were very lucky to get a point on Saturday against Kidderminster and their away form reads played 3 lost 3 for 1 against 8. They have looked a shadow of the side who did so well last season. Gloucester have got of to a pretty good start with their only defeat coming to Darlington so far. They had a very comfortable 3-1 success against Stalybridge on Saturday and I thought they would be shorter favourites than 17/11 (Marathon) to give Boston their 4th away defeat of the season.   Slough v Hayes & Yeading Slough are beginning to look like they could be potential promotion challengers on the Evo-Stik Southern Premier and they are 2nd after the first 6 games. Monday sees them play at their new home ground for the first time and they will be keen to get 3 more points in front of a sell out crowd. Strangely enough Hayes have also just moved into a new ground, but their first game in their new ground has been their only win so far this season. I make Slough stronger favourites then Marathon's 13/10.   Maidenhead v Truro and Cinderford v Merthyr Town When I saw Maidenhead were 10/11 I could not believe my eyes. They have started the season very strongly having won 5 of their 6 games and currently top the National League South table. Indeed I wouldn't be surprised if they were still there come April. They host a Truro side who have only won once so far and don't look anything special. Sadly other people agreed with me and the price has collapsed. I still think they are worth backing however, but I will add Merthyr Town to make a double which pays around 7/4. For the 2nd time opposing Cinderford proved heart stopping, but ultimately profitable as Basingstoke eventually beat them 3-2. Merthyr have looked pretty good so far this season and also have the benefit of having their game on Saturday called off so they don't even have 90 minutes of football in their legs. It would be surprising if they didn't win this and hopefully more comfortably than Basingtoke or Hitchin did.  
  13. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Bank Holiday Weekend Non-League 27th-29th August   
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham
    This is the live BT Sport game on Saturday and after Dagenham winning for us last week I am backing them again. Bar the blip against Chester Dagenham have looked pretty good albeit against some of the lesser sides in the division. On paper Wrexham will be a tougher test, but they haven't been performing that well and Gary Mills seems to be getting angry with the local press which is always a sign a manager is under pressure. At a shade of odds against they are just the right side of value.
     
    Maidstone v Forest Green Rovers
    Speaking of teams getting angry with local papers FGR's chairman Dale Vince has banned the local paper from attending their next game after a story he didn't like went in the paper. Given the manager Mark Cooper has already had a go at a journalist they seem under the cosh already. They were lucky to get 3 points against York last week and although they have won their last 3 they haven't convinced at all. Maidstone will be a tough test on the 3G pitch and they put up a good fight against Tranmere last week. At 3/1 with Coral they seem a sporting bet.
     
    Southport v Tranmere
    Southport have been pretty bad so far and it would be a surprise if Tranmere didn't continue their 100% start to the season. They have been impressive and have already gone pretty short for the title. There looks to be decent value in backing them on the -1 handicap at 21/10 with Paddy Power and William Hills.
     
    Torquay v Dover
    I thought Torquay might build on last season's miracle escape, but they haven't really and have looked pretty lacklustre so far this season. Dover on the other-hand are looking like they might repeat last season's exploits and bar a 4-1 defeat to Boreham Wood have a good set of results. At 27/20 they look value to get another 3 points.
     
    Boston v Kidderminster
    Boston have been pretty bad so far this season bar a 3-0 win over Tamworth. I'm surprised they are doing as badly as they are and they were pretty woeful last Saturday. They have a fairly big injury list at the moment which won't be helping and with Kidderminster getting off to a cracking start they look the right side of value at a shade of odds against to win again.
     
    Harrogate v Nuneaton
    The away side have got only a point so far and have been surprisingly bad. I opposed them last week with Salford and given Harrogate have taken 11 points from their first two games they look worth opposing again at a shade of odds on.
     
    Cinderford v Basingstoke
    I was a bit surprised Cinderford managed to win their second game of the season, but they have lost their other 4 including 5-0 to a pretty poor Biggleswade side last week. As I put in the first preview of the season Cinderford are likely to really struggle this season given the lack of money and the lack of players good enough to compete in this division. Basingstoke are full time with mainly a young side under Terry Brown and it looked like the policy wasn't working as they didn't win any of their first four games. However they got an impressive 3-0 victory over Kettering last Saturday and they have every chance of kicking on from that. It would be very disappointing if they didn't outclass Cinderford and they look the best bet of the day at 19/20 with Marathon.
     
     
  14. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Weekend Non-League 20th-21st August   
    Braintree v Aldershot
    I stuck Aldershot up as a bet on Tuesday and at 2-0 up I thought it was bet won given Bromley had yet to score this season. Frustratingly Bromley found two goals to peg them back and hold them to a draw. Even so it has been a cracking start to the season by Gary Waddock’s men and they could be in for their best season since they were relegated. Braintree are set to have their worse since joining this league and they are yet to win in their first four matches. I make Aldershot favourites to win this and the 9/4 with Marathon looks a big price to me.

    Bromley v Gateshead
    Gateshead are one of the teams who have been backed, but 5/4 is still available with Coral and I think there is just enough in that price to get involved. I put them up last week against Forest Green and they were unfortunate to lose to what was a fluky goal. They then stunned York on Tuesday when beating them 6-1! That made it 3 wins from 4 games and if they carry that form into this game then I think they will be hard to beat. Bromley will take some confidence in the fact they got a point against Aldershot, but Gateshead have looked strong in defence so far this season and it might just be a case of getting at least one goal to win the game.

    Sutton United v Macclesfield
    Macclesfield also have a record of 3 wins from their first 4 games and it is rather annoying that the only time I have put them up was their loss too York. Even so they played well that night and they have followed it up with putting three goals past Braintree and Southport. Granted they are likely to be down near the bottom this season, but they were still impressive efforts. Sutton have been one of those teams who have been well backed and that means Macclesfield have drifted to a massive 13/4 with Marathon. To be fair to Sutton they have coped fairly well since gaining promotion and beat Lincoln and Torquay in the last week. Lincoln did go down to ten men though and Torquay arrived at Sutton’s ground in taxis after their coach broke down which is hardly an ideal preparation. They did get a point against Forest Green, but they probably played them at the right time as they are still struggling to get used to Mark Cooper’s system. The price makes no sense to me and they could easily be the other way round and it wouldn’t have surprised me. I make them Nap’s because of that.

    Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Like the above two tips, the only time I have backed Dagenham this season was when they lost to Chester 3-0. That is looking like a blip for both teams as Chester have lost their other three games and Dagenham have won their other three. Woking look like they are going to be in for a long hard season. Manager Gary Hill stated that they have the smallest budget in the league and whilst I am not sure it would be lower than North Ferriby’s, the squad has clearly suffered because of the low budget. Hill is a good manager, but he will have to work very hard to keep them up this season. They are a young squad and inexperience seems to be costing them. Bar that Chester game Dagenham have looked pretty good so far and the 11/8 with Coral is just on the right side of value.

    Nuneaton v Salford
    Just the one bet outside of the National League this weekend and it is Salford. Nuneaton have been pretty disappointing so far with just a draw against Bradford. Granted they have played two of the stronger sides in Halifax and Kidderminster, but worryingly they haven’t been playing all that well. Salford on the other hand could easily be 3 from 3. They outplayed Gloucester when getting a draw on the first day of the season before putting 4 past Stalybridge and then beating local rivals FCUM in midweek. They look like a team who could play a part in the promotion race this season and on form shown so far I would have them shorter than Marathon’s 13/8.
  15. Like
    sap got a reaction from draganblazevski in Mid-week Non League 16th August   
    It was a perfect night.Hope you placed your bets.I try my best but there are ups and downs.
  16. Like
    sap got a reaction from Steelo in Mid-week Non League 16th August   
    Hi all
    I fancy maidstone,fylde and tranmere.Their prices look value and I think worth a bet.
  17. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League 13th August   
    Forest Green Rovers v Gateshead
    It hasn’t been a good start for the National League ante-post favourites and not surprisingly they have drifted out after only picking up one point in their first two games. They were pretty poor in their opener at Boreham Wood and it seems they weren’t much better against Sutton on Tuesday. It seems the formation that Mark Cooper is using isn’t working at the moment and his players are struggling to get used to it. Cooper seems under pressure already as he snapped at a local journalist after Tuesday’s night game. There is still a long way to go to turn things around, but backers must be concerned by the start. It could get worse as well as they host a Gateshead side who have made a superb start to the season. Granted Chester and Southport are unlikely to be finishing the season in the top half of the table, but to beat both 3-0 is a decent effort. On paper this should be a tougher game, but on the basis of the first two matches Gateshead shouldn’t be 31/10 (Marathon) shots and they will fancy their chances of making it 3 from 3. They have to be backed at that price.

    Guiseley v Dagenham & Redbridge
    As I mention above for Dagenham to go from an impressive 3-0 victory on Saturday to losing 3-0 to Chester on Tuesday was rather surprising. Obviously we have limited evidence, but I just wonder if a young Dagenham side might perform better at home than away this season. I think they are probably just about the right favourites here, but I think Guiseley are value at 12/5 (Marathon). Guiseley are yet to pick up a point, but they have had two tough games to start with and have performed with credit in defeats to Eastleigh and Wrexham who scored a very late winner. They look to have a better side than last season and they have a fair chance of surviving. If they continue to put in the performances they have in their first couple of games then they will be winning sooner rather than later and it is worth betting they do it on Saturday.

    York City v Boreham Wood
    Not only did Boreham Wood beat Forest Green in their opening game of the season, but they then went to Dover and beat them 4-1 on Tuesday night. Granted Dover went down to ten men when they were still 1 up, but even so that is still an impressive effort from Boreham Wood. I opposed York on Tuesday and they did manage to beat Macclesfield 1-0 in the end. The goal was rather fortunate though and I am still unconvinced they are going to be much of a force in this division this season. Whatever way you look at it though a price of 29/10 (Marathon) on an away win looks too big on the basis of Wood’s first two performances.

    Alfreton v Curzon Ashton
    Four of my bets are priced over 2/1 this weekend, but the Naps will be Alfreton who are 5/6 with Betway. Curzon have conceded 10 goals in their opening two games which is rather worrying. First up Kidderminster put 6 past them on the opening day of the season and then on Wednesday night they drew 4-4 with Bradford Park Avenue. Clearly they have defensive issues at the moment and given Alfreton have scored 7 goals in their first two matches, it looks ripe for them to add to that tally on Saturday. Now they did lose 4-3 to Stockport on Saturday, but they beat Gainsborough 4-0 on Tuesday night. Given the way these two teams have started you would expect Alfreton to add to their 7 goals and that should be enough to win the match.

    Bradford Park Avenue v Nuneaton
    Bradford have started their season with two draws and as mentioned above they shared 8 goals with Curzon on Wednesday night. That might have taken a bit out of them and it could be crucial that Nuneaton didn’t have a game in mid-week. They lost their first match 3-2 to Halifax and it was a bit worrying that they gifted Halifax a couple of goals, but Halifax are the favourites to win the league and Bradford will be lucky to get into the top half. Nuneaton should be capable of being in the play-off hunt again and I am surprised Marathon have gone 11/5 for them to win this. Given the next biggest price is 15/8, they are also out on a limb. I would still be tempted by 15/8 so the 11/5 has to be worth a punt
  18. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Mid-week Non League 8th-10th August   
    BT Sport have a weekly 30 minute highlights show every Sunday night for the National League. I think it is also available for free on You Tube.
  19. Like
    sap reacted to French in Mid-week Non League 8th-10th August   
    I found it quicly after addpea's written about BT Sport. Here it is: link to YouTube.
  20. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Mid-week Non League 8th-10th August   
    Here is a link to the highlights of the Hitchin game from Saturday. If they hadn't of won I would have felt very hard done by as they could probably have got into double figures on another day. https://vimeo.com/177938653
  21. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Mid-week Non League 8th-10th August   
    Braintree v Eastleigh


     
    Like the Bromley and Tranmere game on Saturday this match sees one side I have tipped for relegation play a team I have tipped for the title. Eastleigh looked good in the first half against Guiseley on Saturday when going 2 up. They weren't as good in the 2nd half though and allowed Guiseley to come back into the game. I think it might have just been a case of Eastleigh thinking the job was done and easing off in the heat. In someways the Guiseley comeback might be a good thing for Eastleigh as it was a reminder that you will get punished in this division if you switch off. It was no surprise to see that pretty much everything positive that Braintree did on Saturday against North Ferriby came through Simeon Akinola. It didn't lead to a goal though and I think the 0-0 draw against the side who I think are potentially the weakest in the division, goes someway to back up what I thought about them pre-season. If Braintree lose Akinola I think they will be in deep trouble and the key for any team playing them will be to keep him quiet. Eastleigh look a big price at William Hills' 19/10 as I make them favourites for this match


     
    Chester v Dagenham & Redbridge

    It can be dangerous to get too carried away with results on the opening day of the season, but here we have a team who lost 3-0 hosting a team who won 3-0. Ironically their two opponents also play each other on Tuesday night, but more on that shortly. From the highlights I saw and from the report I read Dagenham were very impressive on Saturday. Now Southport are likely to be in another relegation battle this season so I wouldn't want to get too carried away with Dagenham just yet, but it did hint that they could be promotion contenders. Chester meanwhile looked disjointed and poor when losing 3-0 to Gateshead and my feeling was they would be in the bottom 8 again looked a fair one. John Still is sure to make his Dagenham side hard to beat on the road and they clearly have the goals in the team to take advantage of the chances that will come their way and the 8/5 with Marathon looks too big. 


     
    Southport v Gateshead

    As mentioned above these were the two sides who played Chester and Dagenham on Saturday. I did mention in my ante-post preview that I nearly tipped Gateshead up as they had looked like they had improved their squad from last season and they got off to a flying start on Saturday. Last season they lacked consistency, but hopefully they won't be like that this season as on paper they have a much stronger side than Southport. Marathon are biggest at 6/4 and that looks value as I would make them clear favourites to win.


     
    York v Macclesfield

    York were very disappointing on Saturday when held to a 1-1 draw with Maidstone on BT Sport. Granted in the first half it looked like they struggled on the 3G pitch a little, but even so they must consider themselves fortunate to have got a point as they were pretty poor. Macclesfield on the other hand were the complete opposite in beating Torquay 2-0. Now it seems Torquay didn't perform at all on Saturday and were very disappointing, but Macclesfield should take plenty of confidence from their performance. With York looking they might need a bit of time to gel it could be a good time to be playing them and Macclesfield look very over priced at 2.3/1 with Marathon. At that price I make them the best bet of the evening.


     
    Hayes & Yeading v Hitchin

    Fair to say it was a rather dramatic afternoon following the Hitchin game on Saturday. First of all we had the massive gamble which meant having been odds against when I put the preview up on Thursday night, they were no bigger than 2/5 before Friday lunchtime. When Cinderford took a 3 goal lead I thought the bookies were going to keep the money, but having seen the Cinderford side I knew that if Hitchin could get one they might be in with a chance. The comeback started in the 76th minute and apparently after that first goal you could see the Cinderford players start to look nervy. Hitchin got a penalty in injury time to win the game and duly scored it to land the money for us. They hit the woodwork five times during the game so I think it was a bit of a fluke that Cinderford took a 3 goal lead. That should give Hitchin plenty of confidence going into this game though. This is the first league game at Hayes' new ground and they will be keen to win, but they lost 2-1 to Froome on Saturday and I am not sure the bookies have priced this up right in making them such short favourites. The 21/10 with Skybet and BetVictor looks worth chancing.

  22. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non league season bets   
    National League 

    Usually I have a team in mind who I want to back to win the National League around April, but this year has been different and it hasn’t been until recently where I have made my mind about who I want to back. The main reason for that is I think it looks a very competitive division this year and if any one of about half a dozen sides won the league it wouldn’t surprise me. 
    Tranmere came down with Cheltenham and I am hoping they can do what Cheltenham did last season and win the National League title. I suspected Gray Brabin’s side would need a season at this level to find their feet and although I am sure their fans were disappointed not to reach the play-offs, I think they had a solid enough season to finish just two points shy of the top 5. In my view that has built a solid foundation to build on this time around. They only lost 3 games away from home all season which was the lowest in the division, but the problem was at home where they lost 9 and just 7 teams lost more. That could be down to the fact players felt more pressure in front of their demanding home fans. Hopefully this season that won’t be so much of a factor and crucially for me their side looks stronger. I especially like their set of strikers as the trio of Andy Cook, James Norwood and Connor Jennings looks the strongest in the division in my view and they could do with scoring a few more goals than they did last season as only 3 teams scored fewer in the top half. Clearly Gary Brabin saw this as a weak point and has acted accordingly. I would be amazed if they didn’t improve on last season and they look a solid e/w bet at 7/1 (Coral and SkyBet). 

    Forest Green Rovers are favourites with only Boylesports going as big as 4/1 and they have been backed in from Betway’s opening 6/1 quote. They should finish in the play-offs again, but they look shocking value at their current odds. I think getting a manager who knows this level was a good move and it is interesting that Mark Cooper seems to have gone down the route of getting younger players in like Ethan Pinnock from Dulwich. It will be interesting to see how Rhys Murphy gets on down at this level, but he has only scored 34 goals in 125 games so you wonder if he is going to be someone who goes and gets 20 goals in a season. Matt Tubbs has also arrived from Portsmouth via Eastleigh. He obviously had a superb scoring record at this level for Salisbury and Crawley, but he only got 2 in 16 for Eastleigh last season and that worries me. Maybe there were other reasons behind it, but I am sure Eastleigh would have gone for him if they thought he was still up to scoring 20+ goals a season. I think Cooper has taken a few gambles and he hasn’t always been that impressed with his team’s efforts in pre-season. Those gambles might well pay off, but I am more than happy to oppose them at the prices. 

    Eastleigh are next in the betting after the above two and they were very costly to me last year given how strongly I backed them. I am loathed to blame the FA Cup run because I don’t think in got in the way all that much. They just weren’t good enough at the back and failed to score enough at the other end. Now initially I wasn’t going to back them this time around as I was a bit worried they still looked light weight up front. I am not someone who reads that much into pre-season form, but when you take a look at how many goals Eastleigh have scored in pre-season it does make you sit up and take notice. They scored 25 in 8 games and most of the opposition was of a decent standard. Constable got 15 goals last season and they need someone to come in and match that at least and they may well have found him in Mikael Mandron who Chris Todd was raving about after he scored twice against Northampton on Saturday. They look to have a stronger squad than last season and if they can carry on scoring the goals when the season starts then they should get a top 3 place at the very least. Paddy Power are best about them at 17/2. 

    Dagenham & Redbridge have been the other side for money over the summer and I can understand why some people would want to take a chance at double figure odds. John Still knows non-league inside out and getting the manager right is crucial at this level. He has brought some interesting looking players in and if they click then they should be in for a good season. There are some of the field issues though which might end up seeing more money injected in the club, but until they are sorted I don’t fancy them at the current price. It is even harder to fancy the other relegated side, York, who look like this will be more a rebuilding season than one of attempting to gain promotion. 

    Wrexham played some nice football last season and they put in one of the best performances I saw when they beat Cheltenham on BT Sport. The problem was consistency and I am not sure Gary Mills has actually managed to improve last season’s squad. They could easily miss out on the play-offs again. 

    It will be interesting to see how the Cowley brothers get on at Lincoln given how well they did at Braintree last season. They need to find a fair bit of improvement to win the title though and I think they will be happy with a top 10 finish this season before looking at a proper promotion bid the season after. They might be a team to back when the season gets going though if they are going well. 

    Dover have lost some key players, although to be fair they have kept some as well so they should still be capable of doing well, but I would be very surprised if they matched last season’s exploits. Barrow were one team I was considering backing at one stage. They have a manager who has won the league before and they finished the season pretty strongly last term. Getting Ross Hannah from Chester looks a decent signing, but on the other-hand they have lost Cook to Tranmere and you can’t help but think Cook must have felt that Tranmere have a better chance of gaining promotion. At this stage I will leave them alone, but they are ones to keep an eye on. 

    One team that might go well at big odds are Gateshead. They have signed a lot of players in the close season and they look to be giving promotion a good go this time around. Given they changed manager during the season they didn’t do too badly to finish 10th and a better squad this time around can hopefully give them better consistency. I was tempted by the 20/1 but at the same time they look more a team who might sneak into the play-offs rather than actually win the league. 

    At the other end North Ferriby are likely to find things very tough, but then they are priced up accordingly to go down. I think the other three promoted teams, Solihull, Sutton and Maidstone all have good chances of surviving though, indeed at least one might even sneak into the top half. Guiseley just survived last season and are likely to be in another relegation battle this time around. There are two teams I think are worth backing. The first is Bromley at 3/1 with BetVictor. They were very strong in the first half of last season, but then could barely pick up a point even under the new manager. I think they are going to find things very tough this time around. 

    The second bet is a team I backed to go down last season, Braintree. Obviously I couldn’t have been more wrong as they finished 3rd in the end, but they have lost the vast majority of last season’s team. It is surprising that Simeon Akinola is still there given the interest he has had from Football League clubs and I would be amazed if someone doesn’t buy him at some point. Jamie Day isn’t a bad manager by any means, but he is having to restart again on one of the smallest budgets in the division and to me they look a spot of value at 6/1 to end up in the bottom 4 at the end of the season. 

    National League North 

    This looks a very tough league to try and sort out this season with some big teams in the division as well as big spending ones as well. Halifax have been backed into favouritism probably on the back of a good pre season. New manager Billy Heath will be trying to gain promotion from the division for the 2nd year running after winning the play-offs with North Ferriby last season. They should be in contention, but in a league where so many teams have a chance they look poor value at 9/2. The other two relegated sides are both 14/1 and Kidderminster make more appeal, but at the same time not enough to make me want to back them. The two promoted sides, Darlington and Salford, should be capable of doing well and the latter not surprisingly have cash to spend. You have to think Stockport will get back up at some point although not sure it will be this season. Nuneaton, Harrogate and Boston will no doubt be competitive again and Alfreton and AFC Telford can do better than they did last term. 

    That is 11 teams I have mentioned and that shows you how much strength and depth there is in the division and I haven’t mentioned the two I am putting up. For the 3rd year running I am putting up AFC Fylde. They have gone full time this season and are just about to move to a brand new stadium. Yes winning the title this season will be harder than the last two, but given they have gone close the last twice the move to full time should see the improvement needed to see them land the title. bet365 are a top price of 13/2. At a bigger price Tamworth interest me. They had a solid season last term and I think they can build on that this time around. They now have a 3g pitch and I think that could be an advantage especially if the winter brings lots of postponements. Loius Briscoe looks a good signing and at 16/1 they are worth an e/w bet. 

    National League South 

    Ebbsfleet cost favourite backers for the 2nd year running as they blew a massive lead to lost out to Sutton. They then blew the play-off final as well so that means they are short price favourites for the 3rd year running. They are running at a reduced budget this term, but I suspect it will still be the biggest in the division. They might finally land the title, but they are no value and there are 3 teams who look good e/w value against them. 

    First up is Whitehawk who somehow made the play-offs last season despite looking to have no chance at half way. They have some real quality in their squad and I don’t think they should be as big as 9/1 (bet365). Chelmsford have just had a takeover approved and that will mean an increased budget which will see them much more competitive than they have been in recent seasons. They have a manager in Rod Stringer who has won the league before and at BetVictor’s 12/1 they look a fair Each Way price. 

    The final bet is Margate. Now that might seem odd on the face of it as not only have they had a massive budget reduction, but they only just survived last season. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Nikki Bull took over as manager during last season the team’s results improved massively and they had an outside shot of the play-offs. When things went wrong off the field though things also went wrong on it. Bull announced he was leaving at the end of the season and the players knowing the same just seemed to give up and opposing them became a money making system. The new owners then persuaded Bull to stay and he managed to get his squad to perform well enough to just stay up. I have been very impressed with the squad that Bull has put together and he showed he can manage with the way the team improved when he took over last season. I actually think having less money to spend will help them and Bull can clearly get players playing for him. Betway went 50/1 and I was hoping that was going to stay, but clearly others have seen what I have seen as they are now into 33s. I still rate that a big price though and they have a much better squad than that price suggests. 

    Ryman Premier 

    Only bet365 and SkyBet have priced Step 3 up this year. I really like Dulwich Hamlet again for this division. They are my local team so I see them a fair bit and they should be a National League South side by now. They massively under performed in the play-off final in May, but manager Gavin Rose has recruited well and getting Danny Carr back in can only be a good thing for both player and club. When I started watching them they were getting around 300 people turn up, but now they regularly get crowds of over 1000 and on occasions get over 2000. That is a big support at this level and is a big advantage. They look a solid e/w play at 7/1 with bet365. 

    I am amazed Lee Bradbury is still in a job at Havant as they were awful on a big budget last season and deserved to go down. I do think they are worth backing at 4/1 with SkyBet though because they have recruited very well and look to have a very good squad for this level and if they gel for the manager then that price is a fair one. 

    I am also having a small e/w play on Merstham at 28/1 (SkyBet). They seem to spending a bit of cash and have recruited well over the summer. They could certainly outperform those big odds. 

    Evo-Stik Premier 

    I put Spennymoor up on Twitter last week as when bet365 went up with the prices they looked over priced at 12s and I didn’t think the price would last. They had been 16s on the first show and are now only half those odds, but they still look a good bet. They may only have come up last season, but they have shown plenty of intent on going straight up again and have signed some very good players. They should go close. I also think Blyth Spartans are worth having on side. They went close last year before losing out to Darlington and I would be amazed if they didn’t go close yet again with the side they have. bet365 have them at 13/2. 

    Southern Premier 

    Not a league I have a strong view about. Basingstoke are favourites and should go well although they don’t look great value. Kettering look a team set to build on a solid season last time around and they look worth backing at 8/1. It is also hard not to see Leamington finishing there or thereabouts again and a 12/1 quote about them looks a tad big. 
  23. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League May National League play-offs   
    Ideal first leg from a Braintree point of view. 
  24. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League April matches   
    Hayes was the opposing Gosport play which has been profitable all month although hard to be as strong today because of how bad Hayes have been themselves but even so it was still a massive price. Wrexham have nothing to play for now and Barrow been strong at home all season. Barrow should have been favourites.
  25. Like
    sap reacted to Darran in Non-League April matches   
    My bets for tomorrow are Barrow (Naps), Torquay, Margate, Hayes & Yeading and FCUM.
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