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sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 12th
I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again!
Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets.
Halifax v Boreham Wood
Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price.
AFC Telford v York City
York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal.
Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans
Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds.
Whitby v Warrington
I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing.
Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals
The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories.
Harrow v Truro
Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch.
Oxford City v Dartford
This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them.
Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon
Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor
Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon
Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 6th
Bit of a disappointing opening day of the season with only Dulwich winning although at least they were the Naps. Telford and Boston ought to have won as should the double, but that's the way it goes sometimes. There were some interesting results and I was kicking myself for not opposing Notts County who couldn't even muster a shot on target against Eastleigh. It seems to me they are a long way from having a side being competitive at the right end of the table and as much as I would love to oppose them on Tuesday night they host a Stockport side who looked pretty poor in the live game against Maidenhead so it's hard to want to back them after that even against Notts County. There are 7 teams I do like the look off though.
Solihull Moors v Torquay
As I wrote in my ante-post preview I thought that Torquay were, along with Notts County, the worst value to win the title. They won their first game back at this level when beating Boreham Wood 2-1 on Saturday, but they were up against 10 men for a lot of the game which would clearly made things easier for them. This game will be a much tougher test as they face last year's runners-up. Solihull got off to a solid start at the weekend drawing 2-2 with Harrogate in an exciting game which really should have been the live TV choice. They were really hard to beat at home last season and I fully expect it to be the same this time around. I think they should be closer to even money, to beat a team they should finish above come the end of the season, than they are so at 6/5 they look worth backing.
Woking v Aldershot
Both teams I tipped to go down won on Saturday although that still doesn't mean they won't be in a relegation scrap and I think the odds compliers have over reacted to Woking's win at Dagenham on Saturday. I just wonder if it was a good time to face Dagenham though who have had a big change in players and look like they might take a bit of time to gel. Granted Aldershot have had an even bigger turnover, but they also have a brand new manager which means it is a bit of a different story. They held their own against title favs Fylde on Saturday and that will give them a bit of confidence in this big local derby. I'd imagine both these sides will be in a relegation scrap and therefore the 3/1 on offer about the away side looks big as I wouldn't go any bigger than 2s myself.
Yeovil v Eastleigh
Eastleigh face the other relegated side after beating Notts County on Saturday. It doesn't sound like they played especially well and there is every chance they faced Notts County at the right time, but they could easily be facing Yeovil at the right time as well. Granted it as only a penalty that beat them on Saturday against Barnet. They did start off well, but manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that it was going to be a massive learning curve for a group of players who have been forced together late on. Eastleigh are a more settled side, albeit one who looks weaker on paper than last years, but their experience at this level could prove to be the deciding factor here as it did for them on Saturday. They look a big price at 12/5.
Eastbourne v Tonbridge
I think Eastbourne look the best bet of the night. They held out until injury time against Billericay and although disappointing to lose so late on I would imagine Lee Bradbury was happy enough with the performance. They should be more than capable of picking up the 3 points here as I am happy to continue to take on Tonbridge. Dulwich went down to 10 men early on, but were still able to take the lead and although Tonbridge ended up with their keeper being sent off and had an outfielder in goal, but Dulwich manager Gavin Rose decided to play it safe and just hold on for the 2-1 win rather than go for the 3rd goal. It worked nicely as although Tonbridge tried to find an equaliser Dulwich saw the game out. Eastbourne look capable of improving on their poor season last time around and look an a better side than Tonbridge who may well go straight back down. The home side look a fair price at 11/8.
Dorking v Hemel Hempstead
Hemel were very impressive on Saturday and arguably put in the most impressive performance in the division beating Hungerford 4-1. Sammy Moore has put together a decent side and although Dorking should go well this season they are missing some key players at the moment and that could prove key in a fixture against one of the leagues better sides. Dorking beat Slough thanks to a controversial injury time goal after the linesman put his flag up for offside only to put it down again and the Slough defence had stopped. Slough can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost that and Hemel will be even stronger opposition. Marathon are way overpriced on the away win for me at 93/50.
Concord v Chelmsford
I got Concord wrong on Saturday as they ended up with a very comfortable 3-0 victory over Oxford City, but I am taking them on again here against a Chelmsford side who also had a 3 goal win beating Hampton 4-1. I think my problem with going with Oxford on Saturday was that I was keen to take on Concord and I didn't think Oxford were going to be as bad as they were, but I clearly overrated the Oxford side. Chelmsford are certainly much better than Oxford and I am prepared to back them here to hopefully back up my view that Concord will not do a great deal this season. I would certainly have Chelmsford as favs here and not as big as Marathon's 17/10.
Bradford Park Avenue v Guiseley
Just the one bet in the National League North on Tuesday. I was tempted to back Hereford to beat Gloucester as I think they will in a game where there are likely to be more away fans than home fans, but I think the price is about right so am leaving it (whilst obviously hoping Gloucester can somehow manage a win). Instead I will back Guislely at just under 6/4 to beat their Yorkshire rivals. As much as I didn't expect BPA to do much this season I certainly would not have thought they would have lost 5-0 to Curzon Ashton. Now granted their could be a positive response to that drubbing, but if you are losing 5-0 to Curzon that suggests you aren't very good. Now I would have had Guiseley as another bottom 6 side ahead of Saturday, but they were impressive in beating Kings Lynn 3-0 and with a performance like that behind them they will be full of confidence going into this. If BPA are every bit as bad as that opening day defeat suggests they are then the away side have to be backed.
Solihull 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon
Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor
Eastbourne 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon
Chelmsford 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Guiseley 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 2nd
So football head back on after a busy few day's on the racing front and hopefully I can bounce back from a disappointing mid-week session. Not much damage done, but it was frustrating all the same given I had left the last two Tuesday's alone. I have 6 bets for Saturday and unusually for me only one of them is bigger than 13/10.
Previews to follow
Barnet v Barrow
Barnet are a strange because they really shouldn't be in a relegation battle because as their FA Cup run shows they have a very good team and on their day are capable of putting in a great performance, but although they have a few games in hand they have to be very careful they don't go down. They have only won 2 of their last 10 league games and haven't won in 6 now. Their home form also seems to be a bit of an issue and it is hard to understand why they are so short to win this. Barrow have only lost one of their last 10 league games although on the other hand they have only won one of their last 7, but I think they have deserved more points than they have got. They drew 0-0 with Ebbsfleet last week and they were unlucky not to win. Their away form has been strong of late and as much as some people might want the draw onside I think the price for them to win the game is at least a point bigger than it should be.
Bromely v Boreham Wood
It has been 8 league games since Boreham Wood last won and they have picked up just 3 points in that spell with just one of those coming in their last 5 games. They have looked poor as well and the only thing that can save them in this game for me is if their week and a half off has seen them improve. Bromley are in 3rd place in the last 10 games form table and their only loss in the last 9 games was against Eastleigh which given they are top of the last 10 games form table shows their was nothing wrong in losing 1-0. They really have turned the corner after a slow first half or so of the season and although the play-offs look out of reach they should be able to carry on their good form here and they are strong at home.
Chippenham Town v Oxford City
Oxford City threw away a 2 goal lead last week to lose 3-2 to Billericay which was good new for us and it obviously meant they continued their poor run of form. I think it is worth opposing them again here and Chippenham look a big price really. They are having a very solid season and have lost just once in their last 7 games. They have won 9 at home, drawn 3 and lost 4 and strangely enough Oxford's away form is the exact opposite. With Oxford looking booked for mid-table obscurity and Chippenham in with a chance of the play-offs that also means the homes side have an advantage.
East Thurrock v Billericay
Fair play to East Thurrock they caused Torquay more problems than I thought they would on Tuesday night and it was only a late goal that meant Torquay came away with a 2-1 victory. I just wonder if that effort may leave a mark though and as much as they would love to get one over their Essex rivals I just don't seem them being able to. Billericay did really well to win last week having been 2 down and then seeing out the game with only 10 men. They also got a good draw at Wealdstone on Monday night as they are flying at the moment and I just don't see them losing to a team who are destined to be playing step 3 football next season. Odds against is a big price.
Harrow v Taunton (Southern Premier South)
To be fair to the home side they a really good 4-0 over Poole last Saturday and if in that form they would have a chance of getting something out of this, but that performance really sticks out like a sore thumb because it is their only win in their last 9 and they have only picked up 3 other points in that time and funnily enough one of those was against Poole. The other 2 came against Basingstoke who are level on points with them and Walton Casuals on Tuesday night who are one point from safety and have a terrible away record. Taunton are top of the table as they look to win their 2nd title on the bounce and although they under performed on Wednesday night in a 1-1 draw against Swindon Supermarine, that was a much tougher game than this and odds against quotes look big on them bouncing back with a win.
Tiverton v Met Police (Southern Premier South)
Met Police are also in the title hunt and again they look big at odds against to win this. They didn't win in 4 prior to thrashing bottom of the table Staines last Saturday, but they had 4 really tough games. The only defeat was to Wimbourne who were bang in form and then they drew with 2nd place Weymouth, 3rd place Salisbury and Farnborough who are the most in form side in the division. Tiverton on the other hand are pretty poor this season after a good campaign last time around and their only two wins in their last 10 games have come against Gosport and Staines. The two draws came against a Hendon side who have only picked up 7 points in their last 10 games and Merthyr who are very in and out. Met Police should be odds on for this and look a cracking bet.
Barrow 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor and Boylesports
Bromley 3pts @ Evs with Bet365 and BetVictor
Chippenham 2pts @ 13/10 with Marathon
Billericay 2.5pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
Taunton 2.5pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and BetVictor
Met Police 3pts @ 11/10 with William Hill, BetVictor and Bet365
sap got a reaction from cluelessG in Non-League Predictions > January 26th
I fancy chippenham(who has been good in home turf),spennymoor(in great form) and blyth spartans(consistent team in this division)
@Darrando you have any teams from non-league you think have big possibilities for both to score?
sap got a reaction from yossa6133 in Non-League Predictions > January 26th
I fancy chippenham(who has been good in home turf),spennymoor(in great form) and blyth spartans(consistent team in this division)
@Darrando you have any teams from non-league you think have big possibilities for both to score?
sap got a reaction from Gidds in Non-League Predictions > January 26th
I fancy chippenham(who has been good in home turf),spennymoor(in great form) and blyth spartans(consistent team in this division)
@Darrando you have any teams from non-league you think have big possibilities for both to score?
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 26th
Disappointing that Telford couldn't get the win last week, but at the end of the day I am confident it was the right bet to have and it was just one of those results which defies logic and goes against us. If Blyth had scored an injury time penalty then we would have been in profit for the day as well despite the max bet losing. At the moment I am just putting the one bet up but there will be more to follow tomorrow at some point.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Aldershot
If Gary Waddock can keep Aldershot up I think it will be the biggest achievement of his managerial career because they are awful. It isn't all his fault because there have been budget cuts at the club, but you have to fear that if they go down to Step 2 they won't be coming back in a hurry. It has been 10 games since they last won in the league and they have picked up just 3 points in that spell. That last win also came against bottom of the table Braintree. Scoring goals is a huge problem for them as they have scored just 24 all season and if we narrow that down to the last 10 games then they have only scored 5, 3 of which came in the 4-3 loss to Maidenhead on Boxing Day. Away from home it is a really grim picture as they have won just once, drawn twice and lost 11. Dagenham didn't play well against Maidstone last week, but Maidstone basically gifted them all 3 goals thanks to some shocking defending. Given how much I have written about Dagenham of late there is no real point of repeating myself, but at the very least they should be no bigger than 4/6 for this and probably even shorter than that. I just can't understand how they are only very slightly odds on for this. Dagenham ought to only need 1 goal given how goal shy Aldershot and they look a cracking bet.
Dartford v Concord Rangers
Concord will be keen to get the 3 points they have lost for fielding an illegible player here, but I think the home side offer a bit of value. Dartford's home form has been very impressive as they have lost just twice. Wealdstone beat them early on in the season when they weren't in great form anyway and the only other team to beat them is Torquay and they played well that night despite losing. They have got themselves into play-off contention and it is mainly thanks to their performances at home. Concord's away form has picked up of late having drawn at Bath and won at East Thurrock and Welling before losing their last away game to Hungerford. Take the Welling win away though and the only teams they have beaten on their travels are Dulwich, East Thurrock and Weston all of whom are struggling. Dartford are nearly as big as 6/4 to win this with Marathon and that represents value to me.
Dulwich Hamlet v Chelmsford City
I'm hoping to get to this game on Saturday and it will be my first visit to Champion Hill since Dulwich returned their last month. Usually I want them to win, but given Gloucester are in a relegation battle with them I'm not sure I really do (although I do hope both survive) and I think Chelmsford are worth backing to win. I have only seen Dulwich in the flesh twice this season both when they played Gloucester. Back in August Gloucester beat them 1-0, but I was really impressed with Dulwich and thought there is noway they would struggle this season. Then just before Christmas they looked a completely different side and not a very good one at that. It is hard to know what has gone wrong really, but I suspect that the team had got used to winning games of football and now they aren't they are finding it very tricky to play their usual passing style of football because they don't have the confidence to do so. I thought returning to Champion Hill would see a big improvement in form, but after winning on Boxing Day in their first game back they have picked up just 1 point in their next 5 games and that game in a desperate affair at East Thurrock last Saturday. Having seen East Thurrock earlier this month I can imagine how bad a game it was. Chelmsford are much better than East Thurrock and although their good away form from earlier in the season has left them I would say out of the 4 defeats in their last 6 on the road the only poor loss was to East Thurrock. I'm surprised to see Chelmsford on the drift as Dulwich look really low on confidence at the moment and at just over 6/4 with Marathon the away side look a solid bet.
Southport v AFC Telford
No doubt Telford will go and win now I am taking them on, but Southport are worth a bet despite losing their unbeaten record at Altrincham last week. They certainly played well and I can seem bouncing straight back here. Telford might be very strong at home, but it has been a very different story on their travels. They have only won 3 away games and two of those came against FCUM and Nuneaton and both of those are in the bottom 3. Following Southport has been pretty profitable for us in recent weeks and I am surprised they have drifted out to 121/100 with Marathon as I would have them nearer even money myself.
Whitehawk v Carshalton
Those of you who have been following me for a while may remember that a year or so again backing Whitehawk became a rather profitable system despite the fact they were bottom of the table and still ended up going down and I just wonder if they are about to go on another good run of form. They have improved the side this month and their last two results have been superb. First of all they got a draw against Dorking who are 2nd in the table and then last week they were really impressive in beating Kingstonian last week. If they can repeat those two efforts then they should be more than capable of beating a Carshalton side who have only won 2 of their last 8 league games and have lost 5 on the bounce away from home. Every chance they will have one eye on their FA Trophy match at Barnet next week as well. At 19/10 with BetVictor they are well worth backing.
Dagenham & Redbridge 4pts @ 49/50 with Marathon
Dartford 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2pts @ 38/25 with Marathon
Southport 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon
Whitehawk 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor
Not surprisingly the price has come in on Dagenham although I still think the price is on the right side of value.
sap got a reaction from Gidds in Non-League Predictions > New Year's Day
my shortlist for today is:gateshead(being consistent and can overcome this opponent which has been on and off since the start of this season)
afc fylde(home turf has been so good and will try to stay in the play offs.
Bradford PA will try to maintain his top position against guiseley which hasn't been doing well in that league.
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Oct 9th - 11th
A pleasing day on Saturday with Dulwich, Slough and Hednesford all winning to make a nice little profit. We have just step 3 fixtures this mid week, but I like the look of 5 aways.
Marine v Stalybridge I made 3 ante-post tips in the Evo-Stik Premier, Warrington and Altrincham who are 1st and 3rd respectively and Stalybridge. I thought they would go well with Steve Burr in charge, but it was all a bit of disaster to start with as they made a very poor start. Things have turned a corner though and they have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 league games. They were really good when winning 4-1 against Matlock on Saturday. Now strangely all those games have been at home and they have lost all 6 of their away games conceding 19 goals in the process. That is a small concern, but I think they are a different side now so hopefully they can transfer the home form to their travels especially as they face weak opponents here. Marine have only got 4 points, all from draws, in their last 10 games and their only win at home came in their first home game of the season. They lost the next 5 before drawing against Grantham. BetVictor are best about an away win at 31/20. Rushall Olympic v Barwell Barwell come into this on the back of a very good 1-0 win over Shaw Lane on Saturday which was Shaw Lane's first defeat after 5 victories on the bounce. Barwell have won 4 of their last 6 now and are in and around the play-off positions. Rushall are currently bottom of the table and are leaking goals for fun. Their last two games have seen them lose 7-1 and 4-0 and they have conceded 25 in their last 10 games. Barwell look much the stronger team here and BetVictor are biggest at 11/10. Witton Albion v Workington Here we have two sides with very contrasting form at the moment. Workington are rising up the table nicely having won 4 on the bounce and they have won 6 of their last 8. Witton meanwhile have lost 5 on the bounce and 6 of their last 7 with the only win coming against Stalybridge when they were badly out of form. Workington look set for another play-off bid and BetVictor are biggest at 31/20. Biggleswade v Kettering I have opposed Biggleswade in 2 of their last 3 games and they lost both to Kings Lynn and Slough. Those teams are currently in 2nd and 4th in the table. Tuesday they face the team who are top and are finally putting it all together after a couple of disappointing seasons. They have been superb so far winning 9 and losing 1 of their 10 league games. Saturday arguably saw their best performance of the season when thrashing a good Merthyr side 5-0 and they could have scored more. Biggleswade have now lost 3 of their last 4 and as long as Kettering don't get complacent this should be win number 10 of the season. Paddy Power are best at 13/10. Farnborough v Weymouth This game takes place on Wednesday night and Weymouth look a solid bet here. They have won 6 of their last 9 games and are currently in 7th place. Now on the face of it beating Kings Lynn 3-1 was a very good result, but actually the report in the paper suggests they were rather lucky to win the game. Even so they face an easier opponent here and are obviously in good form in general. The home side lost to Dunstable on Saturday in what was that teams first win of the season. They did have a spell recently where they won 3 and drew 1, but either side of those 4 games results have been poor. I think the away side can win this and look a fair price at Marathon's 67/50, Stalybridge 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor Barwell 2pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor Workington 2pts @ 31/20 with BetVictor Kettering 1pt at 13/10 with Paddy Power Weymouth 2pts at 67/50 with Marathon
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Sep 23rd & 24th
Last Saturday saw a small profit and yet another big price Nap going in. The Nap's have certainly been performing very well so far this season. Annoyingly the Billericay bets on Sunday came unstuck which they shouldn't have because they should have been out of sight before Thamesmead scored and then Billericay went down to 10 men. It was no surprise they won the replay 5-0 on Tuesday, but no handicap betting was available. It is quite a busy week for me this week as I like bets in 8 matches.
Chester v Maidenhead
I am hoping to make it 3rd time lucky with Chester on Saturday. I think Chester have made a good managerial signing in Marcus Bignott who did a great job to get Solihull promoted to the National League and will have learnt plenty from his time at Grimsby in League 2. I think Chester are in a bit of a false position as I think they have a decent enough squad and I expect they will climb up the table now. They did get thumped 4-0 by Dover last week, but they didn't play too badly. The big thing for them is to get a win at home given it has been so long since they tasted success at home. I think that was down to the fact Jon McCarthy wasn't up to the job and hopefully Bignott can bring about instant change. This won't be a gimmie by any means as Alan Devonshire's Maidenhead continue to defy the odds. Even without Tarpey they have still been winning games and currently sit in 6th. I just think though that there isn't anywhere near as much difference between these two sides as their league positions or betting suggests. Marathon go 59/25 about a home win and I would make them no bigger than 6/4 shots.
Guiseley v Dover
Having put up Dover last Tuesday night when they drew with Barrow I was cursing not putting them up on Saturday at Wrexham so was pleased when Wrexham got that late equaliser. It was another good performance from them though since Paul Cox took over and performances have certainly improved. Only Hartlepool have beaten them at home so far and although Dover have won 4 out of 5 away games I think this will be a tougher test for them than the bookies prices suggest. Chris Kinnear has done a fine job with what is basically a brand new side this season, but I can't help but think they are a bit flattered by their league position at the moment. If Guiseley can go to Wrexham and Barrow and get draws then they have a good chance of beating Dover at home. Bet 365 are biggest about a home win at 3/1.
Maidstone v Gateshead
Maidstone have 18 points and 17 of them have come in their previous 8 games a run where they have had only had one defeat at Hartlepool. They have won 3 on the bounce as well and were really impressive in beating Macclesfield 4-1 last Saturday. They finished strongly last season and bar the first 3 games of this one they have carried that on this time around. They have yet to taste defeat on their 3G pitch this season and I think they can make it 4 wins on the bounce against Gateshead. The away side have yet to win on their travels this season and although they picked up draws at Ebbsfleet and Sutton they were very much 2nd best in both games. I think there is just enough in Maidstone's price of just over even money with Marathon to get involved.
Tranmere v Wrexham
Whatever result happens in this game the prices for the match are one of the most ludicrous set of prices I have seen. How on earth can anyone have priced up Tranmere as short as 8/15 I will never know. They are a best price of 8/13 and that stinks as well. As much as I still think Tranmere have the potential to win the league, their current form should not make them 8/13 shots to beat a Wrexham side who are 5 points in front of them in the table. In my ante-post preview I wrote how I liked the Wrexham side, but they lacked a goalscorer and that has proven to be the case as they have only scored 9 goals so far. Given the way the league is this season they might well still be able to mount a title challenge even without a proven goal scorer. How on earth they are bigger than 5/1 I don't know, but I am not going to back them in that market. Tranmere have also struggled for goals and have only scored 8 themselves. Both defences have done well as well as Wrexham have conceded 6 and Tranmere 8. Now they will probably play out a 3-3 thriller now, but those stats clearly point towards a very tight game. So I am going to back No Goalscorer which is 17/2 with Bet 365 (just in case you aren't aware if an own goal is scored then you still get paid out on this market whereas you wouldn't obviously if you backed 0-0), I am going to back a Wrexham 1-0 win which is 14/1 with Betfred and finally back Wrexham in the draw no bet market at 73/20 with Marathon.
Kidderminster v Blyth Spartans
Into the National League North where I have 3 bets this week. Blyth have been impressive in their first season back at this level and currently sit in 4th place in the league. They have won their last 4 league matches and their only away defeat came in their first road trip of the season to Alfreton. They have won their other 4 and although they haven't come against clubs who should be troubling the play-offs they have clearly been playing well. The home side on the other-hand have been struggling so far this season and look a fair way off the side who did so well last term. No they have only lost once at home, but this is potentially their toughest home fixture yet and Blyth are too big at 3/1 (Bet 365).
Leamington v Bradford Park Avenue
Bradford landed the Nap selection with ease last Saturday and I am going to make them the Nap's again this weekend. They are unbeaten in 7 in the league and that FA Cup win against Southport continued the superb run. They travel to a Leamington side who have lost all 5 of their home games so far. They struggled in the FA Cup last Saturday as well only beating Westfields with two 90th minute goals. Betway's 17/10 about an away win looks a nice price.
Nuneaton v Southport
It is a shame Southport aren't playing another half decent side so I could continue opposing them, but their shocking run of form continued against BPA last weekend. They were outclassed yet again and they desperately need players back. Now Nuneaton haven't won in 6 league games so they come with risk attached for sure, but they did avoid a Cup upset against a good Kings Lynn side last Saturday. A performance like that should be enough to win this and at just under 6/4 with Marathon I am prepared to back a home win.
Billericay v Tooting & Mitcham
As mentioned at the start the Billericay bets should have been winners on Sunday, but that is football and hopefully we can get some money back here. Against the lesser sides in the Bostik Premier Billericay have been totally dominate and scored plenty of goals. Tooting have yet to win in the league this season and have conceded 19 goals in 7 games. Billericay meanwhile have score 21. Jake Robinson continues to score for fun and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets 50 this season. They should have another comfortable afternoon here and the 19/10 with Betfred to overcome the -2 handicap looks more than fair.
Chester 1pt @ 59/25 with Marathon
Guiseley 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Maidstone 1.5pts @ 107/100 with Marathon
Tranmere v Wrexham 1pt no goalscorer @ 17/2 with Bet365. 0.5pts 1-0 Wrexham @ 14/1 with Betfred and 1pt Wrexham draw no bet at 73/20 with Marathon
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Bradford Park Avenue 2pts @ 17/10 with Betway
Nuneaton 1pt @ 6/4 with Marathon
Billericay -2 1.5pts @ 19/10 Betfred
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Sep 2nd
Hartlepool v Maidstone.
Hartlepool may have got their first win of the season on Monday, but I am still keen to take them on. Maidstone have had a cracking start to the season and have carried on their good end of season form from last season. They look big at just over 11/4 with Marathon.
Leyton Orient v Guiseley
Orient are doing much better than I thought they would early doors, although it has to be said they have had a fairly kind fixture list and that continues on Saturday when they face a managerless Guiseley who haven’t even put a caretaker manager in place for this match so they really will be mangerless! I mentioned on Monday about Guiseley’s awful away form and the two added together should mean a fairly comfortable afternoon for Orient. They are 29/20 (various) to make up the -1 handicap.
Torquay v Chester
Torquay look hopeless at the moment and although Chester aren’t that much better they certainly perform better away than at home as proven when they beat Aldershot last Saturday which was their first win of the season. These two sides should be much closer together in the betting and Chester are very much a value play at 12/5 with Bet 365.
Hampton & Richmond v Dartford
Dartford lost their first game of the season on Monday, but that was to an East Thurrock side who are still unbeaten. They can bounce back here against a Hampton side who have yet to really convince so far this season. Marathon go 9/5 about an away win and I would make Dartford favourites.
Billericay v Didcot.
For the 2nd season running bookmakers have left the 1st Qualifying Round of the FA Cup alone, but this game is being streamed on the BBC website at 12.30pm. It is no surprise the BBC have gone with this game given all that is going on there at the moment. It also isn’t surprising that they are bigging this game up as a massive one given the cameras are there. Didcot are doing well so far this season at a step below their hosts, but given what Billericay have done to teams in their own division recently I can’t see anything but an easy home win. They will want to put on a show and prove to everyone how good they are and that makes the 5/4 with Paddy Power that they over come the -2 handicap very attractive and for the 3rd time this season I make them the Naps.
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 28th
On holiday at the moment so just very brief thoughts
AFC Fylde v Barrow
These two sides are liking to draw so far this season, but I think the home team look in better shape and should hopefully build on Saturday's win. Barrow did well enough to get a draw on Saturday in their first game since Paul Cox quit, but it sounds like all is not well there if he wanted to quit and Fylde seem a fair price
Guiseley v Hartlepool
Obviously I didn't see Guiseley's game on BT Sport on Saturday, but it sounded like that was a good thing as they lost in a dull game 2-0. It's early days, but they have lost all 3 away games conceding 9 and scoring 0. At home they have won once and drawn twice in 3 games so it does seem they are focusing on home points. I don't need to add more to what I wrote on Saturday about Hartlepool and 21/10 about a home win is a big price.
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
Going with the same bet as Saturday which won with ease and would have been successful in 4 out of 6 of Maidstone's games. It is even money again with Skybet.
Boston v Nuneaton
Granted Nuneaton's away form hasn't been great to say the least, they have shown glimmers of fair form. Boston aren't anything special and ended Saturday's game with 9 men. These two should be closer in the betting than they are and 61/25 with Marathon is a big price.
Darlington v Spennymoor
Darlington haven't won in 3 now and the last two results will have been especially disappointing. Spennymoor continue to defy their silly 100/1 price for the title that Betway went and very nearly beat Salford on Saturday. 11/5 an away win Marathon looks a spot of value.
Tamworth v Stockport
One point separates these two sides, but I think Stockport look the stronger and I am not surprised they are being backed. 19/10 with Marathon still looks value though.
Farnborough v Slough
Farnbrough won their first game of the season and have lost their next 3, where as Slough have done the complete opposite. Slough are looking good after that defeat to Kettering, who have won all 4 of their games, and they can win again at 6/5.
Thurrock v Billericay
God knows how Kingstonian beat Billericay because they have been terrible since. Glenn's side have won all 3 games since and in the end hammered Burgess Hill 6-1 on Saturday. Thurrock did play on Friday night, but I doubt that will be much of an advantage over Billericay. They won although they had lost their other 3 games and beating pointless Worthing 3-2 doesn't say a great deal. I am amazed Billericay aren't much shorter and a shade of odds on looks a cracking price. They look the Nap of the day.
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 12th
Macclesfield v Bromley
It looks a very tough set of fixtures in the National League this weekend, with quite a few odds on shots and then some tough matches to call. I don't think there is huge value in the home side here, but there is enough at Marathon's 11/10 for me to want to get involved. Macclesfield beat Wrexham on the first day of the season although as I wrote on Tuesday night a draw was probably the fairer result. They then drew against Hartlepool on Tuesday night. That was a couple of tough games to get the season underway so I am sure they will be happy to have picked up 4 points. This game looks to have a good chance for them to pick up another 3 points over another side who have 4 points. Bromley played in a dull 0-0 draw on Saturday with Eastleigh and they didn't even manage a shot on target. They then got a 2-1 victory at Dover on Tuesday. Now on paper that looks like a really good result, but I don't think it told the whole story. By all accounts Dover absolutely battered them and were very unlucky to have lost the game. With Macclesfield looking in solid shape it would be surprising if Bromley were to have as much good fortune for a 2nd game running and the home side are worth backing.
Bath v Chelmsford
Bath have a had a surprisingly poor start to the season. I put them up last week as they looked to be in a much stronger position than Bognor. To be fair they did fight back to 2-2 having been 2 nil down, but they then lost 3-2. Tuesday night was even worse as they lost to another promoted club in Chippenham. Their local rivals soundly beat them 5-2 as well, so it hasn't been an ideal start to the season to say the least. They should come good eventually, but the face title favourites Chelmsford who have won both games so far. They were pretty comfortable last Saturday when beating Gloucester 2-0 and then edged past Welling 1-0 in midweek. There is a danger Bath could have had a wake up call after their shocking effort on Tuesday, but all things being equal Chelmsford are the more likely to pick up the 3 points. Marathon are 27/20 and that looks on the right side of value.
Basingstoke v Frome Town
I'm surprised Basingstoke are as short as they are for their first game of the season. Last season they relied on youth and it didn't really work out and this season it will be the same although mainly because the club just don't have any money. There are various off the field issues in the background which mean they have little money to spend and they have to hope the youngsters they have bought in can do the business. They do have the right man in charge in Terry Brown, but I certainly struggle to see them any higher than mid-table. Frome look pretty solid. They finished 8th in the table last season and have kept the vast majority of last terms squad. 12/5 (Betway) looks a big price and because they look the best value of the 3 bets this week I make them the Nap.
sap reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 5th
Hartlepool v Dover
When looking at the first set of matches all you can really go on is how you think both teams are going to get on during the season. I don't really think friendlies offer much of a guide, because playing for 3 points is very different from playing against some Football League sides U21's or a team from lower in the pyramid. If you have read my ante-post preview then you will know I think Dover are an outside bet for going down this season and Hartlepool really should be looking at the play-offs. Without Ricky Miller you really do wonder where the goals are going to come from at Dover this season, and Hartlepool look to have a very good attacking line-up headed by Padraig Almond. I think the home side would be odds on for this game if it were later in the season so William Hills' 6/5 appeals.
Sutton United v Leyton Orient
The other relegated side Leyton Orient kick the season off as this game is live on BT Sport on Saturday lunchtime. Orient seem to be adding to their squad everyday at the moment as they try and get the strength of depth they need to compete at the top end of the table. They have put a decent looking first 11 together, but it worries me that it has all been a bit of a rush and this is a very tricky game to start their season with. Now I certainly think Sutton have been over-rated in the ante-post markets, but their home form was so good last season. They only lost 4 times and conceded just 25 goals in the process. This will also be Orient's first ever competitive game on a 3G pitch which could be an issue, especially given how strong Sutton were on it last season. Orient are being backed and that means Sutton are drifting and aren't far away from being 2/1 with Marathon which looks a value play.
Spennymoor v Stockport
As mentioned in my ante-post preview I think Spennymoor could go well this season. They would have got closer to Blyth, but for a very busy schedule and they are a well funded side. They kick their first ever season at this level by playing the biggest club (supporter wise) at this level in Stockport. This is the 5th season that County have been at this level and they haven't even been in the play-offs yet. I think they should do this season, but Spennymoor could sneak in there as well and at over 2/1 with Marathon the home side look a value bet.
Bognor Regis v Bath
I think the home side are really going to struggle this season. They were promoted via the play-offs from the Ryman Premier last season, but then their manager left them the next day to join Eastbourne. They then hired one of the players who decided at the end of June that he wasn't able to do the job combined with his everyday job. I think they might be a bit under prepared coming into the season and like I say I think they are set for a season of struggle this season anyway. Bath on the other-hand look set to be at the other end of the table and they look to have their strongest side since being back at this level. The play-offs look a reasonable target and at 33/20 (Marathon) I am happy to take them to get their season off to a flyer.
sap reacted to Darran in Weekend > Apr 29th - May 1st
Barrow v Dover
Two sides who are set to fall sort of the play-offs and I think both will be disappointed not to have made them as both looked like they would be in them at various times in the season. Dover had a great chance to take it down to the final day of the season, but they could only draw 2-2 against Macclesfield on Tuesday which means they need a minor miracle to reach them now. I don’t even fancy them to win here though as they look to have lost their form at the wrong time. They lost the crucial game to Aldershot on Easter Monday and then lost to Torquay last weekend. Barrow have beaten North Ferriby and Braintree in their last two games and having only lost twice at home all season I am sure they will be keen to end on a high note. This was always going to be a tough game for Dover to win anyway, but it is hard to see them being able to pick themselves up to gain 3 points after the disappointments. At around 6/4 the home side look a solid bet.
Hungerford v Chelmsford and Poole v Dartford
I am grouping these two games together because the reasons for wanting to back the two away sides are the same. Chelmsford and Dartford are locked together on 81 points in 3rd and 4th places. I think both will want to go into the play-offs in good form and both will want that psychological factor of finishing 3rd in the table so I don’t see any resting in their performances. Obviously as we know Hungerford and Poole can’t enter the play-offs and both have had a dip in form. Poole haven’t won in 5 and Hungerford have lost their last two including that very tame performance last week against Wealdstone. Both away sides are the same prices and I think they will both go into the play-offs with a win.
sap reacted to Darran in Weekend Non-League and FA Cup 1st/2nd October
Boreham Wood v Wrexham
Somehow Gary Mills is still in a job despite the fact Macclesfield beat them 3-0 on Tuesday night. Macclesfield dominated the game as well and Wrexham looked desperate. I thought he would be sacked if he lost that, but he gets another chance against Boreham Wood. It doesn't look an easy game though as the home side have only lost two of their 12 games this term and are unbeaten in their last five. Now they have drawn half their matches, including three of their last four, but I think they were good efforts as they drew with Aldershot and Barrow who are both above them in the table. The other draw was against Solihull last Saturday, but they had come of the back of two very good draws themselves. It is also worth pointing out they beat Dagenham five games ago as well. They look a stronger side than Wrexham and the 13/10 about a home win with Marathon is well worth taking. I am sure even Wrexham fans wouldn't mind losing as surely it would be the end of Mills' reign.
Forest Green Rovers v Barrow
The prices here make little sense given it is 2nd v 3rd. Barrow put in a superb performance to beat Lincoln in their last away game and then landed the Nap bet for us last Saturday against York. They look genuine promotion contenders and there is noway they should be as big as Marathon's 22/5. FGR are obviously a good side and they are unbeaten at home, but some of their performances haven't been that convincing. They only beat Bromley and Braintree 1-0 in their last two matches and both of those are in for a relegation scrap this season. They will have to raise their game against Barrow and although I would still have them as favourites it makes little sense to have them long odds on. Barrow should be around the 15/8 mark so they have to be a play at the prices as they have a good chance of gaining the 3 points.
York v Aldershot
Granted York’s home form is strong having only lost the once and Aldershot have only won once away, but I have to back Aldershot at just over 2/1 with Marathon. York look low on confidence at the moment and like Wrexham the fans probably wouldn’t be too upset to lose this one as they want their manager to leave as well. Aldershot have drawn half of their away matches, but their win did come at Dover so they can put in a good away performance. The basic stats suggest Aldershot will find this tough to win, but Aldershot have much the better side and York do look there for the taking at the moment. The crucial thing though is the price is big enough to take a chance that Aldershot can bring their home form to an away game as they did against Dover.
Altrincham v Morpeth
The home side are still to win in the league and just beat Gainsborough in the previous round. Jim Harvey is still struggling to turn the team around since becoming manager and this looks a very tricky FA Cup tie for them. They face last season’s FA Vase winners Morpeth
who beat Blyth Spartans 4-2 in the previous round. Given Blyth were top of the Evo-Stik Northern Premier at the time and Altrincham are currently bottom of the National League North there isn’t much difference between those two sides. Morpeth come from the strongest Step 5 league in the country and they look worth backing at BetVictor’s 4/1 to cause another upset.
North Leigh v Folkestone
It is surprising that Folkestone are such big favourites for this game. The Ryman Premier side aren’t in the best of form at the moment and are currently mid-table. North Leigh play at the level below, but are only just outside the play-offs in the Evo-Stik Southern Division One South & West. They have won five of their league nine league games and are unbeaten in their last 5. With home advantage I think they will fancy their chances here and the 85/40 with BetVictor looks on the large side.
Slough v Dartford
Slough were a massive price to win the Evo-Stik Southern Premier before the season started, but they are making a mockery of those odds as they top the table having won 9 of their 11 league games and only losing once. I think they will be bang their come the end of the season and this could be a league fixture next term. Dartford will be a good test for the home side as they are just outside the play-offs in the National League South, but they are much better at home than they have been away and Slough have the advantage of a 3G pitch. I think Slough are up to winning this and I would have them shorter than BetVictor’s 2/1.
FA Cup acca
I was unfortunate not to land a decent 6 fold in the previous round and this time I am looking to land a 4 fold which pays just over 5/2 with BetVictor. Burgess Hill should have too much for lowly Cadbury Heath. Eastbourne did us a big favour in the last round and they look to have a gift of a draw against Hadley. I am surprised to see St Albans are only 1/2 to beat Worthing at home as St Albans are going really well in the league compared to Worthing who aren’t. The final team are Hampton & Richmond who are going great guns in the National League South and travel to a Taunton side who are mid-table to levels below.