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Everything posted by money44

  1. Indian Wells Atp: Double Chance Tabilo @+800 Millman @ +450 X2 Stake I will post analysis after I win a bet or two here hopefully.
  2. Stake amount 100% total(2 bets) Martina Trevisan 80% to beat Anett Kontaveit @ odds +550 with William Hill Trevisan is one of my favorite players to bet, and in the beginning I lost a couple times on her, and then recovered all loss and large profit after French Open surprises.. I believe she is a good athlete with solid technique and fighting mentality. Hard courts are not her surface at all, but Indian Wells plays different than most hard courts and heavier shots get rewarded nicely by the court. Trevisan won her last match as a small underdog, and it was close.. She worked very hard but was moving very and striking even better. If you look at the past scores for Trevisan and Bouzkova.. I think you would be confused how Martina wins this, but Bouzkova can be tough to beat at times, and I think she wanted to advance in this tournament or atleast take extra payday. So in long story.. Martina is a player that I expect is good to back moving forwards in the future in clay events and maybe some surprise hardcourt wins. Her doubles partner Cocciaretto also goes overlooked and has flawless technique from the few times I've seen her. I looked closely @ Kontaveit's results in this tournament and I don't think the conditions are great for her. In 2019 she did well beating Puig, Sevastova, and losing a close match to Pliskova in R16.. But, I can make a case that this is still not impressive for me if players like Puig and Sevastova were not playing in top form. I think the odds are somewhat reasonable because Trevisan has little history on hardcourts, but I still am going to go with Martina. Tennys Sandgren 20% to beat Cameron Norrie @ odds +425 with William Hill Sandgren the journeyman at 30 years old is a pretty solid all around American player.. I don't think the straight sets win over Monteiro in the first round is a bad look at all.. He also had some competitive matches leading up to this tournament. I'm not sure why Norrie is rated so highly here, and I don't believe he warrants that price.. He's been taken out in the first round each of his times here, and maybe there were some improvements from him in my tennis absence but I still think the odds are exaggerated by a country mile.
  3. Thanks C-Punt.. I really appreciate it .. I'm shelving the Yastremska pick completely.. I watched her doubles match October 8th after her first round match.. She was hitting the ball okay, but had tape on her arm, and I agree with the mental focus part also. This is a problem, and its not a place I want to put money and hope to win a miracle.. So, on to the next possible.. I have something lined up for Sunday that I'll post here later.
  4. Are you guys giving Yastremska chances today.. I just got done watching 15 minute highlights from her last match.. I guess she is coming off injury or something and not playing matches.. For me the fitness level was all there and the baseline shots are fine. Serve might be a big problem but it feels more like rust.. She was in no danger at all in the previous match, and was almost like a practice session... Was missing her serve on the long side with some decent spin on it.. If she serves better vs Badosa... She's going to have a huge confidence to a near deadly baseline attack anyways, and if we're fitter than before.. There's no reason she can't win this match.. I think she's hitting the ball well right now.. @CzechPunter I have a feeling you might be with me on this.. I am giving about 45% chances here, and I'm very tempted to parlay with Angelique Kerber.. This makes nearly 4/1 oddss. All thoughts from anyone are appreciated, and good to see everyone again.
  5. If evans wins, then 2-1 sounds correct.. Nishikori should be able to grab atleast one set.. It makes sense to me. I won't be betting on this match.. good luck brother! 🖖
  6. I'll probably just do some live betting, and watch some of the matches .. Don't think anyone is on board with Olivo , and seems like too big of a risk for now.
  7. Small card this time guys, but it's good to have fights every week if possible. There is a matchup that is a bit of a sleeper for me.. I think the fight will be a banger for sure, and I don't know who wins.. I can tell you that every person I've seen is picking Mattheus Nicolau @-200.. He's good guy.. I bet him last time and won but in reality.. Most of the people were scoring that fight for Manel Kape... Extremely close though.. Kape is legit for sure, and that can only look good for the Nicolau side.. The problem with Elliott is his experience.. I am concerned that Tim might snatch this victory, and showcase some new striking that he's been working on with James Krause... So, for the Mattheus Nicolau bettors.. I understand why you pick him, and my feeling was for him also to win, and maybe by submission.. The fight just seems really close to me, and it might be a surprise.
  8. Crazy good call on Gomez @four-leaf Extremely well measured there. I want you guys to know that I have been away from tennis for a long time, and took a couple wrong guesses during Wimbledon this year, and thats about it for the past god knows how long.. So I'm not dialed into these players forms at all or any of the new players really.. I didn't find out Radacanu won the US open until about a month after it happened. I did take a quick look at the lines and tried to find something that might be able to help out.. I'm going to try and post more reliable picks here in my attempt to return here in cooperation... However, this is not one of them just based on the bookmaker odds anyway. I was hoping for some help and opinions what you guys think. Unofficial play: Renzo Olivo to beat Carballes Baena @ 3.24 I just don't believe Baena is doing well in this moment.. I think he has lingering injury of some nature.. I don't know what it is at all.. Hamstring or something.. Can be anything.. He retired in August challenger and has had some long tournaments on clay leading up to this event.. I think the conditions favor Olivo for some reason and he might have the fresher legs or ball striking.. I like the fact that Olivo has taken 4 out of the first 5 sets of his first two matches, and only dropping the remaining set 8-6 in a tiebreaker... I haven't seen any recent live match play from him or Baena.. This is purely based on statistics. Also, I don't think it helps Baena's cause here to come in directly off the claycourts when Olivo already has a couple matches under his belt in these heavier conditions... So, I like the bet, and I'd probably rate it @ around 40% chance to win. This gives around a 10% edge over the implied odds.
  9. Hi All .. Anyone know something about Maya Sherif. She doesn't seem like a hardcourt player to me ? I'm not sure why she is priced as such a big favorite ?
  10. Screaming children outside of an empty stadium during crucial points, and a wandering wild black cat in the stadium .. This match will never be forgotten
  11. Pera came out with tape on her leg .. not expecting to win this. It might take a miracle
  12. Triple stake from my last bet Bernarda Pera +110 to beat Sorribes Tormo (You can hedge this action with a 80%/20% risk on Pera +110/Donald Young +400 if you like) Odds are better this time, ,and I'm more confident with the result.. Tormo had a reasonable match last outing with completely out of form Podoroska. This is a huge step up in quality, as Pera some of her best form physically right now, and a great match already under her belt. This will be the first meeting between the players. I like Pera's confidence as well. I am seeing one of these left handed players put the books to sleep tomorrow if not both of them winning.. Great luck gents! I'm rating Pera's chances at 70%, and Young's chances around 30% - With William Hill
  13. Not a great spot for Ferro anyways .. she needs to get in the gym and rest her body with all that talent .. prepare for a promising career. good to see you guys on here.
  14. Mona Barthel to beat Gasanova @ -115 with William Hill NO reason whatsoever for Gasanova to be favored earlier in the day with this.. Young player with zero quality wins in her career that I saw over the last year, and also have never heard of this player before. Have not been paying close attention of late, but the actual odds are off here by about 60 cents, and Barthel should be -175 because she is not usually a trustworthy player either... So the edge over the book would also be 75 cents minus 15 cents juice.
  15. Kontaveit did not look in good health.. The motivation was not there for one of these smaller events. She has been struggling with injuries, and should eventually return to form.. but I think it's not going to be for atleast a bit here.
  16. Sup guys , Anyone have an opinion on the Kasatkina - Wang match starting in a couple hours here.
  17. Darko probably saved me on Alexandrova.. I don't have anything wagered on her... either way .. she's not playing well, and ferro looks really good to me.. super young talented player. I guess she's the top female prospect in france.
  18. Pliskova/Vekic double @ 1.82 with Pinnacle. I think Paolini is a more dangerous player than Errani, and in this case for some reason I'm trusting Krystyna more. I've seen she is moving well, and ball striking good enough.. I'm not sure how Errani is going to contend with the serving disadvantage, and Pliskova forehand is very powerful.
  19. I really don't like this bet .. but I won't be on the other side of the handicap .. good luck .. I think Vekic wins in straight sets quite easily.. something like 6-2 6-2
  20. I agree ... I'm not super confident with Alexandrova... Ferro is a wildcard, but I'm sure Ekaterina's serve is 100 times better, and also she is playing well enough form what I saw.. I did watch some of the end Giorgi and Peterson.. I was leaning Giorgi.. but i saw no evidence of her current form, and I've lost on her too many times in the past to feel comfortable.. I did see some of the Juvan - Vondrousova match as I mentioned earlier.. I am thinking Marketa going to win that match, and i missed most of the second half of it.. I think Marketa's form was probably bad, and slipping.. Javan really looked slow and hobbling around.. To sum things up.. Giorgi seemed with incredible shape, and Italy is supporting her here.. I think she wants to advance in her country.. and I'm dialing her up as the winner in the next round.. I think the odds are going to slightly favor Giorgi around -125, but I'm hoping for a better price than that.. Nonetheless .. I feel more comfortable with this bet than Alexandrova, but I will still consider Ekaterina, and have some thinking to do about that because I don't believe she should be the underdog.. If Ferro beats Podoroska .. thats fine but Nadia was coming off two tough three set matches, and she's not comparable to the talent she'll be facing in the next round.
  21. Well Gentleman.. the zombies have risen today.. Ferro has opened up as the favorite against the most underrated player on tour Ekaterina Alexandrova. Having said that.. I"m still not confident Alexandrova wins , but she looked good in the highlights I saw from her match. Probably will have to auto-bet this tomorrow, and i'm already a little bit excited about it .. the problem is I have other matches that I'm much more confident such as Vekic.. Italians might be on thin ice soon as Giorgi seems to be in some trouble vs Peterson. So fading all the italians tomorrow makes perfect sense to me.. I think Errani has some chances and maybe Paolini, but as I've said Sasnovich played quite well, and she seems healthy enough.. I have no idea how well Paolini is playing but certainly this girl is some future clay court specialist with alot of potential.
  22. @darko08 1. Javan looks slow and worn down to me -- I think Peterson or Giorgi can win that match in the next round 2. Yastremska should beat Dodin who also is not impressing me, but less confident with that one 3. Sasnovich should be able to beat Paolini.. She looked good form to me today beating Mertens 4. Samsonova is a very talented player.. I don't know what her status is physically.. have not seen her recent matches. 5. Alexandrova should advance past Ferro or Podoroska in the next round. 6. Siegemund has potential for an upset in the next round.. I'm uncertain with this matchup, and her opponent is still unknown.
  23. The little bit that I've seen from Donna Vekic practice.. She's hitting the ball clean, and in primo form for Palermo.. Dusting Rus in the first round is another good sign, but I have no idea how Cocciaretto is going to compete with the firepower and experience of Vekic.. I'd be pretty shocked if there was n upset with this match. Home Italians have made their waves already.. Path is now paved for Vekic, and certainly one of the top four contenders to win the tournament alongside Mertens, Vondrousova, and Kontaveit. Krystyna Pliskova is a dark horse.. I'm not sure how good she is playing.. The win over Sakkari hasn't sold me yet. The tournament feels pretty wide open, so there could be a chance for someone to sneak in there and grab the trophy, but out of those four players I prefer Vekic. So, this makes me believe that she'll make quick work of the young italian in straight sets. I actually completely forgot about Alexandrova and Yastremska as Title contenders... whom i might rate as greater chances than Vekic or atleast the same level.. Donna Vekic -286 to beat Cocciaretto with Pinnacle
  24. Pliskova was a banker bet.. Good pick on that +1.5 sets.. I wish i pulled that trigger.. I seen Sakkari didn't look in form especially for a clay court match vs a big hitter.. Great call though Czech.. Just another tally on a outright win for your handicap pick. Pure gold... Then Errani was the other value play.. They'll matchup against each other, and Pliskova is a good size favorite.. I feel its warranted, and won't be betting on Errani. I'm giving czech player 75% chances.
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