Judeksi

Great to see the tennis threads being so active and we have PLENTY of action coming up this week as well!
Sebastian Korda to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 1.75 with Unibet
Kokkinakis had the run of his life back in Australia, despite that loss in the AO singles. Now, though, back on the road, I think his level will drop down a bit and Korda had a very good run in Delray Beach last year. He's also the better player overall and I think these odds would look alright had this match been in Australia, but not in the USA.

Tsitsipas had a bit slower start against Ivashka,but from 4:4 in 1st set,he won six games in a row,i think. He was on fire,very solid performance indeed. H2H with De Minaur stands strongly on Greek's side..so i think another win is on card for him

Tsitsipas to beat (-3,5 games) De MInaur @1.75

Notes from Ruusuvuori-Vesely match: Vesely looks like he has gained some weight and his movement looks heavy. Only his serve can somehow keep him in the match. A potential player to bet against in the near future.

Notes from Ruusuvuori-Vesely match: Vesely looks like he has gained some weight and his movement looks heavy. Only his serve can somehow keep him in the match. A potential player to bet against in the near future.

Notes from Ruusuvuori-Vesely match: Vesely looks like he has gained some weight and his movement looks heavy. Only his serve can somehow keep him in the match. A potential player to bet against in the near future.

J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet
Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.

J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet
Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.

J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet
Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.

Rublev to beat A.Zverev at 1.9 with bet365
Even after his 3 clean wins ,without dropping set, Zverev somehow looks vulnerable to me. In all of his 3 matches the German was serving very well ,in all of the matches he had over 70% first serve, but none of his opponents was good enough to manage to challenge somehow Zverev and to put him in a bad place. I don’s see the German as a solid player right now and I just can’t see him in the semi-finals or in the final.  On the other hand Rublev is on fire, 2 titles for just a month, and not only his tennis skills were exposed during this run , 11 wins out of 11 matches, but his mental ones,  on multiple occasions he had to fight to survive and stay in the match and win a set from a break behind.Right now Rublev seems to be more motivated for me and also we can’t neglect the fact that the momentum is with the Russian.

I like Fucsovics against Federer on sunday. Roger must be tired after that 4-hour match against Millman who fought really hard but in some ways choked in the end. Fucsovics has played his best tennis here in a while and has been liking the conditions too. Best odds around 5.50 @William Hill
 
 

Considering something there as well @Judeksi, I remember Fucsovics playing very decently against Roger in the past and the circumstances look right indeed.

Norwich vs Tottenham
The action doesn't stop coming on Saturday in the Premier League with the games pretty much going on across the whole day and night. This clash between Norwich and Tottenham kicks off at 5:30pm GMT from Carrow Road. It's a huge game for both teams with the home side looking to move off the bottom of the table and the visiting team aiming to move closer to the Champions League qualification spots.
Norwich have shown signs of being one of the promoted sides that could do well this season but too many defeats have prevented the Canaries from building any momentum. Daniel Farke's men are bottom of the table and 7 points adrift of safety. It's becoming a dire situation. 4 losses from their last 5 league games hasn't helped. Just 2 wins from their 9 home league games this season also isn't great reading for their fans.
Tottenham had a slow start before Daniel Levy made the controversial decision to sack Mauricio Pochettino and replace him with Jose Mourinho. The change appears to have worked with Spurs now just 3 points behind 4th placed Chelsea. Winning 5 of their last 7 league games has contributed to this resurgence up the league table. The fact that the away form appears to have been rectified with the club only losing 1 of their last 4 league matches on their travels has also helped.
Head-to-head statistics favour Tottenham coming into this game with Norwich winning just 1 of their 8 home league games against Tottenham in the Premier League era. No win for Norwich in their last 6 home league games makes for depressing reading and I think Tottenham will win this game relatively comfortably as it looks like Norwich will drift closer towards Championship football next season.
Tottenham HT/FT @ 2.70 with BetVictor
Tottenham -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx

Notice that Watford sacked Sanchez Flores after the loss against Southampton, so they are once again in a situation where they are starting with a new coach, for the second(!) time during this season. It will be interesting to see how big of a boost Watford will get from this. Is this second change as effective as the first one? Leicester will give them hard time tomorrow, that's for sure. Watford-Palace is an interesting match on the weekend, I still could see Palace snatching at least a draw there..

Leicester anything above evens consider value. Brighton missing two key defenders including their captain Dunk. 
Vardy will be fully rested after spending the international break also on holidays, that's a great thing. If Brighton also end up missing Trossard who missed both games for Belgium due to an injury scare, then Brighton unlikely to score more than 1
LEICESTER WIN @ evens+
medium stake

Couple points from this gameweek's matches so far: both Southampton and Norwich looked quite awful especially at the back. Southampton had problems getting the possession (numerous misses from the passes) and Norwich keeps on looking vulnerable at the back. Improvements can happen during the international break but I'll definitely keep my eye on betting against these two teams in the near future.

Couple points from this gameweek's matches so far: both Southampton and Norwich looked quite awful especially at the back. Southampton had problems getting the possession (numerous misses from the passes) and Norwich keeps on looking vulnerable at the back. Improvements can happen during the international break but I'll definitely keep my eye on betting against these two teams in the near future.

Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Tour Finals @ 6.00 General
It's ten years now since Davydenko was an unexpected winner of the Tour Finals and as much as that has nothing to do with events this year, I can't help but see the parallels between Davydenko's game and that of Medvedev. Both were excellent servers, both were well suited to indoor conditions and both were capable of beating the best on their day and of course Davydenko had a few of those days ten years ago. As for Medvedev, he couldn't really be in better form coming into this. I'll forgive him the defeat to Chardy in Paris as I don't think he was particularly motivated, but he'll certainly be up for this. He's grouped with Nadal, Tsitsipas and Sascha and I think he finishes in the top two and progresses to the knock-out stages and that's before the possibility of Nadal withdrawing at some point like he did a couple of years ago. From there who knows, but there's nobody in the other group that he can't beat. I'd say he's got Djokovic's number and I'm certain the World No. 2 would like to avoid another meeting with him having come out the wrong side of a couple of meetings with him already this season, and I'm sure he'd fancy his chances against Federer given that the Swiss hasn't won here for a few years now and is in the twilight of his career. In short, based on the season to date I think Medvedev is a Grand Slam champion in-waiting and after Sascha won here last year I can't see why Medvedev can't follow in his footsteps. If Djokovic doesn't justify his status as favourite here - which happened last year - then I can see a Medvedev win.

I think ManU will continue their positive form this weekend. I saw the match Bournemouth played against Norwich 2 weeks ago and they actually looked kinda uninspired, all in all the match was a snoozefest. What is more important is that the expected goals table tells me that Bournemouth should be fighting the relegation battle with the goalscoring form they are having at the moment: https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/
ManU to win @ 2.21 with Pinnacle
 

I think ManU will continue their positive form this weekend. I saw the match Bournemouth played against Norwich 2 weeks ago and they actually looked kinda uninspired, all in all the match was a snoozefest. What is more important is that the expected goals table tells me that Bournemouth should be fighting the relegation battle with the goalscoring form they are having at the moment: https://experimental361.com/2019/10/26/expected-goals-league-tables-25-28-oct-2019/
ManU to win @ 2.21 with Pinnacle
 

Tsitsipas to beat Djokovic @3.50 offered by bet365
Reasons are: Excellent performance by Tsitsipas yesterday, a sign that he is extremely motivated to collect as much more points in this tournament, in order to have stock to defend the semi final points in up coming AO grand slam. Last year here in Paris, Tsitsipas was shot out from the second round
Djokovic and Nadal are using this event as preparation for the last remaining big event of the season, which is the London finals. I predict that Djokovic will save energy for London. Always have in mind that top players are tired in this part of the season.
For me, a good chance to make profit!
Medium stakes, because Djokovic is Djokovic!?
Good luck punters!
 
 

Great points by @shrewd., I saw the midweek match where ManU played against Partizan away and it looked like a good preparation for the match against Norwich. Partizan tried their best to attack but United basically took the pace out of the game. I think ManU will try to do the same today and then probably score one or two. This could turn out to be another low scoring away match for ManU.
ManU to win @ 1.97 with Pinnacle
Under 2,5 goals @ 2.03 with Pinnale
 

Hey guys! New to the site. Haven't regularly punted in quite a while, but the taste for a little weekend flutter has returned again. Felt I needed to sign up to a forum, as if I'm not articulating & putting my thoughts into black and white, I can be a little lazy/loose - and if I'm a little lazy/loose, then the bookies are sure to win - and we don't want that to happen, do we? ?   So my first post is hardly much of a "tip", but I think Manchester United are nailed on to brush aside Norwich on tomorrow afternoon, and seeing them quoted around 4/5 looks generous to me.   Ole's side have seen their best performances this season come when playing possession based teams; when the emphasis isn't so much on trying to unlock a stubborn deep-block, but just having a compact settled-shape off the ball & pressing aggressively. They beat Leicester & Chelsea this season with less of the ball, and put in, what I thought, was a very good performance vs. Liverpool last weekend with around 35% possession.   Norwich execute a patient, position-play focused possession game with strong emphasis on building from the back (it's naive, if you ask me, but anyway). Only the "big 6", Leicester & Graham Potter's Brighton pass the ball more on average than Norwich, and only 6 sides (City, Chelsea, Leicester, Spurs, Liverpool & Brighton) average more passes-per-min-of-possession; so they're zipping it around at a brisk tempo - the  only issue is, they predominantly do it in risky, almost Louis van Gaal-esque deep areas:     And to add to that, they're playing against a side who before the Liverpool game, only allowed opponents on average to construct ~8 passes before forcing a possession turnover. United have a lot of effective/capable pressing players in D.James, Rashford, Lingard, Pereira, Fred, McTominay, Wan-Bissaka (his pressing intensity really impressed me vs. Andy Robertson), etc., most of whom, are expected to start, and will be licking their lips at conceding territorial possession and waiting to pounce on an error; specific pressing trigger(s), a lazy pass, etc.   I just think it's a match made in heaven for United. With the recent mood lift courtesy of the solid Liverpool performance, followed by their first away win in a long time on Thursday, on top of the plus of the returning Martial, who may lack the pressing intensity of most of the aforementioned, but brings much missed quality in and around the box;  and against a side who are foot of the table, low on confidence, and despite their "philosophy" playing right into United's hands stylistically, they're likely to be too stubborn to change -  so I'm more than happy to have a substantial single on some of that just-shy-of-evens price floating about.   Good luck if you play or add to your accas.   Hope I can contribute positively in the future. Used to contribute to a forum called Racecaller a few years back.

Bournemouth home win might be the bet of the weekend. Maybe Bournemouth with -1 asian handicap too. There's always the fear that Norwich might have finally sorted out their defence, but on the other hand Norwich hasn't been able to score many goals on away matches either. Moreover, I think Pukki might be a bit tired after two EURO 2020 qualification matches (and plenty of travelling that comes with it) even though he scored 2 goals against defensively quite weak Armenia.

Spoiler alert! Norwich haven’t sorted out the defence. ?

Manchester United vs Arsenal
Arsenal +0 @ 2.16 with Pinnacle looks tasty to me. Like said before, I don't feel like Pogba wants to be in ManU anymore and that's a big drawback for them. Also ManU has already dropped plenty of points to weaker sides like Palace, West Ham and Southampton. Arsenal has only lost once and that was against Liverpool so I don't consider that a huge blow for them. Arsenal has had some problems at the back but to me ManU just doesn't feel like the team which could comfortably win matches against the bigger teams in PL. My gut says OGS just isn't the right kind of a manager for the team.