Kenton Schweppes

There are 2 prices that stand out there Blackburn at 7/5 at Rotherham. Stoke made real light work of Rotherham last weekend and I feel its going to be a long season for Rotherham and their fans. Unless Blackburn have a whole host of injuries I think they get the 3 points here.
Birmingham 3/1, should they be that much? Leeds are much fancied but they are certainly missing a striker and still suspect defensively, I'm not convinced this will be an easier game as the bookies pricing suggests for Leeds. Farke might need a bit of time to get everything as he wishes and to turn that in to results. I certainly think Birmingham are worthy of consideration here even if only at double chance if this can be backed at more than evs.

There are 2 prices that stand out there Blackburn at 7/5 at Rotherham. Stoke made real light work of Rotherham last weekend and I feel its going to be a long season for Rotherham and their fans. Unless Blackburn have a whole host of injuries I think they get the 3 points here.
Birmingham 3/1, should they be that much? Leeds are much fancied but they are certainly missing a striker and still suspect defensively, I'm not convinced this will be an easier game as the bookies pricing suggests for Leeds. Farke might need a bit of time to get everything as he wishes and to turn that in to results. I certainly think Birmingham are worthy of consideration here even if only at double chance if this can be backed at more than evs.

Aldershot v Oxford City I am not surprised that the home side have been backed already for this and I imagine that will continue to happen throughout the week. To be fair these two teams could easily have switched positions as Aldershot probably ought to have gone down, but the late managerial change to bring Tommy Widdrington in just worked. Whilst losing Tyler Cordner to York isn't great, they did get a 6 figure sum for him and whilst I don't expect them to finish any higher than mid-table, I do think Widdrington has done a solid enough job in bringing in new players to improve a struggling squad. The main reason for this bet though is that I think Oxford City are going to really struggle this season and I think they will be this terms Maidstone. They don't have much money, don't have many fans and the squad looks pretty weak for this level. I'd be a bit surprised if Aldershot weren't good enough to get off to a winning start and I reckon they will be nearer 8/11-4/6 come kick off not the odds against they currently are.   Maidenhead v AFC Fylde Because of Alan Devonshire I always think Maidenhead will stay up because he has done an amazing job over the years, but for the first time I actually think they could end up in the bottom 4 this season. They were still capable of putting in very good performances at home to the big clubs and they pushed both Notts County and Wrexham close at home last season and I suspect that might happen again this time around. They still were very close to going down though and were pretty average for most of the season. I don't really see them improving this season and for me that means they could finally go down. AFC Fylde certainly have the better squad and after winning the title last season I think they have the potential to be in and around the play-offs. I think they should be favourites for this even though they are away from home and look good value.   Rochdale v Ebbsfleet The first live National League game on TNT (the new name for BT Sport) is this one and I hope that both Step 2 champions can get off to a winning start. Ebbsfleet played some great football to win the title with ease last term and this is a real tough game for a relegated Rochdale side who haven't been at this level before. I don't think Rochdale are going to do a great deal this season and they might get a shock here. It wouldn't actually surprise me if Ebbsfleet have a bigger budget than their hosts and manager Jimmy McNulty was talking in the paper today that even the likes of Altrincham and Gateshead have been outbidding them for players. Bet365 are out on their own at 7/2 but plenty are bigger than 3/1 and I think this is a game priced up on what leagues they were in last season rather on what both sides might be capable off now they are in the same division.   Solihull Moors v Eastleigh As I mentioned in the Ante-Post preview I think Solihull could well go down this season. Neil Ardley left in the summer and I think it was because the budget was going in the wrong direction. All the key players have left and they look a side way weaker than last season. We are also talking about a side who didn't actually do that well anyway. New manager Andy Whing did a good job at Banbury, but winning a title at Step 3 is very different from managing at this level and to me he strikes me as the cheap option. If they were still going for promotion I don't think he would have got the job. Eastleigh haven't signed as well as I thought they might when it was announced Stewart Donald was coming back as owner, but they will still be going for the play-offs and this does look a very good game for them to get their season off to a winning start. I should add as well that they have still signed well, but I thought they might have spent even more cash than they have. One slight concern is they were poor away from home last season, but hopefully that wont matter here.   Prices from Sunday evening   Aldershot 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes (6/5 with Bet365 and take up to 4/5) AFC Fylde 2pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Boylesports and Ladbrokes (9/5 with Bet365 and take up to 11/8) Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred and Boylesports (Bet365 are 7/2 and take up to 5/2) Eastleigh 2pts @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Bet365 are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

I certainly wouldn't disagree with that final table, I think you have that pretty much bob on. I would be happy if we finished 4th bottom but I think it might be a bit higher. 
Cardiff seem to be mentioned a fair bit in terms of relegation but 10th is a huge improvement on last season. I agree on your new manager too, there's a lot of uncertainty around him, but you will know better than anyone else in terms of the squad.
If I were a Rotherham and a QPR fan, I'd be extremely worried, Ainswirth will be out of a job come September if things start badly for them and Rotherham have lost one of their best players, alongside a League One budget. It all adds up to a season of tumult, fair play to Rotherham, they had a relatively good season but you do have to wonder how much longer they can hang on to their Championship status.
There iscertainly no value in backing Leeds or Leicester, if anyone finishes above those 2 it means these 2 have had the seasons from hell or someone has had the season of a lifetime. I do think there is value in backing Sunderland though, Tony Mowbray is a canny manager but I suspect Leicester and Leeds will have this season all their own way with the odd, not too serious, blip along the way.
 
 

Have to disagree on my team to be relegated, Huddersfield, we won't be be troubling the top 10 that's for sure but Neil Warnock does not get relegated and he has only agreed to manage for this season whilst the new owner and chief exec stabilise the club and find their feet, he is not a long term solution. We look pretty solid defensively and highly organised in pre season with a clutch of talented youngsters coming through, sure we are light on quality in midfield and attack but as the window hasn't closed as yet there is still time. If we can carry on from last season we will be more than fine.
Just to add to this I'm surprised there isn't more noise around QPR and Cardiff for the drop as well. Stevie, what's you take on The Bluebirds this time round, I know you've got Karlan Grant in which might be the fine margin that keeps you up, but for me, are you worried?

Yeah, my brother is backing Sunderland to do well but I think losing Amad Diallo is a big one for them. Yes, they have Ross Stewart back and have made some interesting signings but I'm not sure. Agree about no value in Leeds or Leicester. I still can't deny their strong squads and by all accounts their two managers are highly-rated. I can't wait. It's going to be a fascinating season.

It's a weird one to be honest, @Kenton Schweppes. I don't think we'll go down. We've done good business in the transfer window so far. I still have big concerns about the keeper and defence situation. Dimitrios Goutas looks a fine addition but he simply replaces Cedric Kipre from last season. Shame we can't get him back. Puts a lot of pressure on Mark McGuinness to stay fit with Goutas. Currently, it's only those two and then we're down to Perry Ng (who we want to play RB really) and Jack Simpson (I still have no idea how he's a professionally paid player - he looked exposed when we played Cymru Premier teams in pre-season). Ryan Allsop and Jak Alnwick are also League One keepers at best.
I also remain sceptical about this new manager Erol Bulut. Not really heard great things from Turkey and Greece about his previous roles but he's saying the right things and does appear to be aware of the issues that blight us. Tactically, I'm not convinced but it's early days. We are still in the market for a striker, central midfielder, and centre back which is good to hear but it sounds like we simply can't find a keeper that's an upgrade on what we have... and that's alarming.
Relegation shouldn't be a concern this year but it depends on the owners. Their decision-making crippled us last season. There was potential under Steve Morison, we turned down the chance to appoint Rob Edwards and then we appointed Sabri Lamouchi too late after going for the budget options of Mark Hudson and Dean Whitehead. We shall see. Talk amongst some of our fans of top 6 is a little obscene but it's the Championship. It's the toughest one to call that I can remember. Here's my 1-24...

I had initially gone with Middlesbrough to win the league but I've had to turn my back on that after the Chuba Akpom injury and their failure to bring more players in to address those issues up top. I'm still not entirely happy with these predictions but I had to stop somewhere. As you see, Kenton, I agree that I don't think you'll go down either. I think QPR are a mess right now (what on earth have they been doing for the last 18 months to go from promotion contenders to relegation fodder?!), Rotherham just simply don't have enough quality, and Sheffield Wednesday have appointed the wrong manager and made the wrong moves in the transfer market.
   

Have to disagree on my team to be relegated, Huddersfield, we won't be be troubling the top 10 that's for sure but Neil Warnock does not get relegated and he has only agreed to manage for this season whilst the new owner and chief exec stabilise the club and find their feet, he is not a long term solution. We look pretty solid defensively and highly organised in pre season with a clutch of talented youngsters coming through, sure we are light on quality in midfield and attack but as the window hasn't closed as yet there is still time. If we can carry on from last season we will be more than fine.
Just to add to this I'm surprised there isn't more noise around QPR and Cardiff for the drop as well. Stevie, what's you take on The Bluebirds this time round, I know you've got Karlan Grant in which might be the fine margin that keeps you up, but for me, are you worried?

Halifax are priced up at decent odds for the 2nd week running, 23/20, at home to Bromley. This is no doubt a big promotion clash and Halifax could do with winning it to try and reduce it to a 3 horse race for the title. A minor blip of 2 consecutive defeats seem to have been put behind them with a good win at Dagenham. Again a think they are worth backing today.

Great call mate. Left it late but got the job done. You must be buzzing with that one.

I'm fairly confident we'll win this, Burnley seem hit by a few covid cases, are in pretty wretched form with only 2 wins all season, one of those against Rochdale in the League Cup. If we are a decent price I'd say we were worth backing today.

Salford v Chesterfield
Salford have done well in the league since they beat Dagenham in the previous round, but they were really lucky to beat Dagenham that night as Dagenham were the better side. That gives me hope that Chesterfield can beat their hosts on Sunday teatime. We all know how well Tshimanga is doing and if Dagenham had him in their side I think they would have beaten Salford as they lacked that clinical finisher. He could easily be the difference here and I just don't think the prices should be as far apart as they are.   Chesterfield 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365

Dulwich Hamlet v Ebbsfleet 4th play 3rd here and I just can't have Dulwich as such big outsiders especially at home. Dulwich have only lost two of their last 10 and played well in a draw against Havant on Wednesday night. Ebbsfleet won 6 on the bounce, but have lost their last two in the league to Maidstone and Oxford City. I'd make Ebbsfleet marginal favourites still, but Dulwich are very much over priced in my view.   Kettering v Boston Boston's away form in the league has been pretty awful, but they managed to win at Brackley in the FA Trophy last week which was a good effort and I am going to give them a chance of beating a Kettering side who have been woeful in their last 2 games. Gloucester beat them easily 3-0 in the Trophy last Saturday and then Hereford beat them by the same score line in the league on Tuesday night. Boston have the better team and I think they should be a bit shorter in the betting.   Biggleswade v Alvechurch Alvechurch are having a great season and have only lost once in their last 10 league games. Last week they beat Peterborough Sports 1-0 and then on Tuesday night they thumped Stourbridge 5-1. They look true play-off contenders and they should be able to pick up another 3 points here. Biggleswade are a solid mid-table side, but they have only won once in their last 7 and I would have the away side shorter in the betting.   Dulwich Hamet 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 15/8) Boston 1pt @ 13/8 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/4) Alvechurch 3pts @ 7/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/10)

Ended up taking a Halifax, Notts County, Bromley treble but Bromley's bolt was shot after 9 minutes with the red card.

Equally Halifax away at Torquay, long slog but they are priced up at 17/10, given Halifax's away form is pretty decent only 2 defeats on the road both 1-0, although I was surprised to see them lose at home midweek to Wrexham, after going in front. Wild has them punching way above their weight with the squad they have but certainly worth a considerstion today I think. Torquay lost the last 2, both away mind but they're not immune to losing at home.

Barnet v Aldershot (Live on BT Sport) Barnet were played off the park by Wrexham last Saturday and then went and beat Stockport on Tuesday night whilst Wrexham lost to Maidenhead. Proof that football will always throw up seemingly random results. That was Barnet's worse performance since Dean Brennan took over as manager though and I think it was just unfortunate it came against a Wrexham side who were at their best. I think they have a decent chance of beating an Aldershot side who are struggling for wins even if they do seem to be improving. They were heavily backed to beat Weymouth on Tuesday night and although the price ended up way too short I could see why people thought they would win as the Weymouth manager complained about how tired his players were after the draw against Wealdstone last Saturday. For Aldershot to fail to score against them wasn't great and their xG was low as well. What I will say is they have lost all 6 home league games now and they have performed better away from home, but even so there is no way they should be favourites for this game and Barnet are a massive price.   Weymouth v Kings Lynn Although Weymouth have only won once at home against Maidenhead their 2 defeats came against Boreham Wood and Stockport and they have managed a draw against Notts County as well. I mentioned above that they were looking tired last Saturday, but they rested some key players on Tuesday night so they were able to freshen some players up whilst also managing to win. I think they should be slightly shorter in the betting here. Amazingly Kings Lynn have had more possession in 10 of their 12 league games, but their problem is they often don't have enough quality in the final 3rd to take advantage of seeing so much of the ball. They had nearly 70% of the ball against Boreham Wood on Tuesday night yet could only manage an xG of 0.9 compared to Wood's 1.79 and they lost 1-0. Only 3 times this season has their xG been higher than their opponents and that for me puts things in Weymouth's favour here.   Hungerford v Maidstone (National League South) Just the one bet at Step 2 this weekend and I think the home side are overpriced here. I put Maidstone up last week and they lost 2-0 to Dorking and after a 0-0 draw at Dulwich on Tuesday night that meant they haven't scored in their last 3 league games now. You just get the sense they are in a bit of a sticky patch and this will be a tough game. Hungerford were having a cracking season last time around and they have been able to pretty much carry that into this one as well. 3 of their 4 league wins have come against the weaker sides in the league, but they have beaten Dorking and drew against Havant on Tuesday night. At home I just can't make them anywhere near as big as they are to win this and look fair value.   Barnet 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (take up to 11/10) Weymouth 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/4) Hungerford 2pts @ 11/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill (take up to 6/4)

I genuinely thought Bournemouth would breeze to 3 points in that, thats 2 weeks in a row I've backed them and they've disappointed.
The other surprise result was Forest Green losing at home to Port Vale, I had them in a 4 fold, the other 3 legs came in, only Forest Green were odds on too, sickener really.
You're coming to us soon (Huddersfield), I'm surprised as to how much we've picked up in the last week or so, we've a good home record against you historically, I can't remember the last time you won at our place. Anyway, we're not serious ay off or promotion contenders. I am surprised that you're struggling so badly this time round, Hughton has a good track record at this level.

Also a Derby for us, and if we don't win I think we will need a new manager! I do think we'll win but not quite a bet a 2/1 given our dreadful start to the season.
Done another little treble with the big guns. Fulham to beat Stoke, great start for Stoke but Fulham are better and have home advantage. Bournemouth let a 2 goal lead slip against Blackpool, but I'll give them another chance against Hull, who looked so bad at home to Derby. WBA another team to hit the ground running and should out gun Posh.
Small stakes treble pays around 6.5/1 with SBK.

I'd certainly say that the way to go with these games is over 2.5 goals due to uncertain nature of the team selections from the bigger clubs.

2 2-2's! Poor day for me, especially with Forest losing yet again!
Sounds like a bit of a smash and grab from Huddersfield, Sheffield not really up and running yet.

Sorry mate, I put you off backing us but that is a real shock is that win for us, I'm chuffed to bits but we were trash again by all accounts, no shot on target until taking the lead. Sheffield United must be in a real bad way that's all I can say. Soz mate.
 

There is absolutely no value in backing us mate, we are absolutely dog shit. We couldn't even muster a shot on target midweek and had the rely on a Preston player to shank it in yo his own net. Its desperate stuff from us at the minute. Sheffield United will win this at a canter.
I can't argue with your treble though. I backed QPR at evens earlier, they were 11/10 earlier but, as expected, have drifted.

Yeah, two of them played on Tuesday but there is some mystery shrouded around Toffolo, he might be being sold.

If that's the case, that's a licence to print money. Fulham are flying and they should have run in 5 or 6 at Millwall on Tuesday. Despite Hull's opening day 4-1 rampage they look like a struggler this time round. I would certainly say you'd have every reason to be optimistic about that wager.

In the end, Preston and Wycombe let me down.