neilovan

Looking at the days matches, I do find the Rune v Norrie match interesting. The just played recently at the Cincinnati masters. Norrie won in 3 but the handicap gams difference was only one game, They actually have a similar game style. Nobody going to get blow off the court or overpowered. So my feeling is this one is going to be close. Can Rune win? I don't think so. Can he take a set? Definitely. Thus I like him to cover the +5.5 game handicap at about 1.85
Not crazy about the other men's matches. I do think Cilic beats Dan Evans. Cilic is deceptive, and behind that serve is a really tough customer. I feel that he wins a reasonably close match, and am happy to go straight Cilic win here.
I was watching Kvitova playing in one of the warmup tournaments, and she was playing great. A tiny bit inconsistent, but she is a terrific ball striker, and was definitely going for her shots. When that stuff works in the woman's  game, people get over-powered. The patterns of play look like men's 1st strike tennis, and opponents can't handle it. I think Kvitova wins quite easily here. Definitely saw the right signs; Aggression behind good serving, 1st strike tennis, and hitting the ball hard. It's so proactive and atypical of the woman's game. It's essentially what Radacanu did last year in winning the US open and not losing a set.
One person who is just so underrated is Petra Martic. I was very impressed with Martic, as she just demolished Badosa in their 3rd set. She is a very astute, thinking player. Deceptive power, but the ability to adjust, figure things out, and apply the findings. A crafty player, and my feeling is that she beats Azarenka.  Both have not played that much, I think Azarenka pulled out of the Canadian open. Too much money thrown away to do similar at the US... so she may not be 100% here.
 
I will probably go 2 doubles. Grouping the men and the woman together in two separate bets.
 

Looking at the days matches, I do find the Rune v Norrie match interesting. The just played recently at the Cincinnati masters. Norrie won in 3 but the handicap gams difference was only one game, They actually have a similar game style. Nobody going to get blow off the court or overpowered. So my feeling is this one is going to be close. Can Rune win? I don't think so. Can he take a set? Definitely. Thus I like him to cover the +5.5 game handicap at about 1.85
Not crazy about the other men's matches. I do think Cilic beats Dan Evans. Cilic is deceptive, and behind that serve is a really tough customer. I feel that he wins a reasonably close match, and am happy to go straight Cilic win here.
I was watching Kvitova playing in one of the warmup tournaments, and she was playing great. A tiny bit inconsistent, but she is a terrific ball striker, and was definitely going for her shots. When that stuff works in the woman's  game, people get over-powered. The patterns of play look like men's 1st strike tennis, and opponents can't handle it. I think Kvitova wins quite easily here. Definitely saw the right signs; Aggression behind good serving, 1st strike tennis, and hitting the ball hard. It's so proactive and atypical of the woman's game. It's essentially what Radacanu did last year in winning the US open and not losing a set.
One person who is just so underrated is Petra Martic. I was very impressed with Martic, as she just demolished Badosa in their 3rd set. She is a very astute, thinking player. Deceptive power, but the ability to adjust, figure things out, and apply the findings. A crafty player, and my feeling is that she beats Azarenka.  Both have not played that much, I think Azarenka pulled out of the Canadian open. Too much money thrown away to do similar at the US... so she may not be 100% here.
 
I will probably go 2 doubles. Grouping the men and the woman together in two separate bets.
 

If I had to take two long shots today I have to go with Jack Draper to beat Auger Aliassime. I like Draper, and the left hander should give his opponent problems. For me Flelix has got a lot stronger, but the game (strokes/style/ability to figure out things during match) has not improving much (but he still a great player). I just like the 20 year who has a shot to nothing, and that is where players play their best.
The second one would be Daria Snigur to beat Rebecca Marino. Snigur beat Halep and it was no fluke. 2nd set she got blitzed but came back and won the 3rd after a scare (was 5-1 up, then back to 5-4 and 0-30).  She showed some mental fortitude there, and I think she will only get stronger. For me 2.5 is a solid price.
Will take a small 1 unit bet on the double which comes in around 7.7 to 1 . Draper does start at 2am so impossible to watch, and I will not commit big money to something I will sleep through.

If I had to take two long shots today I have to go with Jack Draper to beat Auger Aliassime. I like Draper, and the left hander should give his opponent problems. For me Flelix has got a lot stronger, but the game (strokes/style/ability to figure out things during match) has not improving much (but he still a great player). I just like the 20 year who has a shot to nothing, and that is where players play their best.
The second one would be Daria Snigur to beat Rebecca Marino. Snigur beat Halep and it was no fluke. 2nd set she got blitzed but came back and won the 3rd after a scare (was 5-1 up, then back to 5-4 and 0-30).  She showed some mental fortitude there, and I think she will only get stronger. For me 2.5 is a solid price.
Will take a small 1 unit bet on the double which comes in around 7.7 to 1 . Draper does start at 2am so impossible to watch, and I will not commit big money to something I will sleep through.

Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable. 
For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda.  Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.
I do like a medium sized bet on  low odds favorites.
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven
Khachanov  to beat Thiago Monteiro
Jabeur to beat  Mandlik
Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang
Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.

Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable. 
For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda.  Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.
I do like a medium sized bet on  low odds favorites.
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven
Khachanov  to beat Thiago Monteiro
Jabeur to beat  Mandlik
Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang
Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.

Had the misfortune of wasting time watching a bit of Everton. They are just awful.  Are there 3 worse teams in the league than them? I don't think so. 
That Chelsea want Anthony Gordon for 60 million pounds is insane, in my opinion. This is a youngster that has done very little in the game, that barley stands out in a mediocre team. 
I think Brentford win here. They are a hard working side, with some quality, and a very good atmosphere. Can't see Everton scoring a goal.
Leicester will get nothing at Chelsea, and Arsenal will beat Fulham. For me it is a decent treble. Arsenal, Chelsea and Brentford all to win.

Had the misfortune of wasting time watching a bit of Everton. They are just awful.  Are there 3 worse teams in the league than them? I don't think so. 
That Chelsea want Anthony Gordon for 60 million pounds is insane, in my opinion. This is a youngster that has done very little in the game, that barley stands out in a mediocre team. 
I think Brentford win here. They are a hard working side, with some quality, and a very good atmosphere. Can't see Everton scoring a goal.
Leicester will get nothing at Chelsea, and Arsenal will beat Fulham. For me it is a decent treble. Arsenal, Chelsea and Brentford all to win.

I don't think much of Southampton. Sure, they beat Leicester, but Leicester are rubbish at the moment. Surely Rogers is on borrowed time there.
I am a Man United fan. Loved them as a kid growing up (in the mid 70's), and went through the torture of the 80's and then the glory years, under Fergie where he built 3 amazing sides.  To see Ronaldo in his peak, live at OT was amazing.  Frankly, I'm loving Ten Hag ... no nonsense, no BS, no Cristiano and no Maguire. He is the first one after Fergie that looks like he can go up against Pep and Klopp and possibly triumph.  I think the signings have been very good, probably the only exception is Eriksen (but maybe the free was too good to pass up). For me he is too similar to Fernandez ... not in nature but in game style on the pitch. Maybe you can't start both of them.
The win over Liverpool is huge. Ten Hag is changing the mentality and the expectation and the way they play. But if results are lousy, players check-out. When the results are good (or better), players buy-in. The manager has a limited time, before players will stop listening (ie. Ragnick who lost them pretty quickly). So the win over Liverpool showed them the blueprint and the rewards. Everyone wants to do well, nobody wants the bird from their own fans!
Casimero is a great addition. He plays with Fred in the Brazil national team and they will work well together. I think it is going to give United a much stronger defensive core. Martinez excellent, Malacia reminded me of Paul Parker, Varane excellent, so much better than Maguire it was embarrassing (didn't lose a header the whole match). Their transitional play (which has been non-existent for 3 years) is going to develop, and click as players get more and more used to it.
I think United are going to start keeping clean sheets and controlling games. This theory is very much opposite to what has been happening, where they have been giving up goals, left right and center.
I like the clean sheet for United at odds of 3 and possibly the longshot, United to win and score 3+ goals with clean sheet at 8  (over 2.5 and NO). There are just too many quality players in this squad, that have been under performing for years. Ten hag looks like he already is getting a tune outta them.

For me the one long shot that I do like is Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Ostapenko.  She is on a hell of a run, reaching the Canadian Open final last weekend. And it was no fluke. Halep actually played exceptionally well to beat her, hardly missed a ball, and chased everything down.  But Haddad Maia beat some very good players along the way,
Bencic, Swiatek, Pliskova Fernandez is not bad at all.
Sun, 14 Aug Final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 3 6 3   15 S. Halep 6 2 6   Sun, 14 Aug Semi-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 79   14 K. Plíšková 4 67   Sat, 13 Aug Quarter-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 2 6 6   12 B. Bencic 6 3 3   Thu, 11 Aug Round of 16·Centre Court Final 1 I. Świątek 4 6 5     B. Haddad Maia 6 3 7   Wed, 10 Aug Round of 32·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 77 6   13 L. Fernandez 64 1   Mon, 08 Aug Round of 64·Court 1 Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 2 6     M. Trevisan 2 6 2  
The other favorite I really don't like is Anette Konteveit versus Martincova.  Something strange going on with Konteviet who is just so inconsistent at the moment. She lost first match last week (expected as she just flew in from Europe).  Martincova also played through qualifiers, so will have for more match-practice on the courts
Today Round of 32·Court 4 20:15 *   T. Martincová   2 A. Kontaveit   Today Round of 64·Porsche Court Final   T. Martincová 64 6 6     N. Parrizas-Diaz 77 4 3   Sun, 14 Aug Qualifiers·Court 4 Final   T. Martincová 7 6   16 M. Linette 6 3   Sat, 13 Aug Qualifiers·Grandstand Final 1 I. Begu 1 7 6     T. Martincová 6 5 7   I think I will take a small double (1 unit) and then equal stakes ( 4 units each) on each of Martincova and Haddad Maia. 

For me the one long shot that I do like is Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Ostapenko.  She is on a hell of a run, reaching the Canadian Open final last weekend. And it was no fluke. Halep actually played exceptionally well to beat her, hardly missed a ball, and chased everything down.  But Haddad Maia beat some very good players along the way,
Bencic, Swiatek, Pliskova Fernandez is not bad at all.
Sun, 14 Aug Final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 3 6 3   15 S. Halep 6 2 6   Sun, 14 Aug Semi-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 79   14 K. Plíšková 4 67   Sat, 13 Aug Quarter-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 2 6 6   12 B. Bencic 6 3 3   Thu, 11 Aug Round of 16·Centre Court Final 1 I. Świątek 4 6 5     B. Haddad Maia 6 3 7   Wed, 10 Aug Round of 32·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 77 6   13 L. Fernandez 64 1   Mon, 08 Aug Round of 64·Court 1 Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 2 6     M. Trevisan 2 6 2  
The other favorite I really don't like is Anette Konteveit versus Martincova.  Something strange going on with Konteviet who is just so inconsistent at the moment. She lost first match last week (expected as she just flew in from Europe).  Martincova also played through qualifiers, so will have for more match-practice on the courts
Today Round of 32·Court 4 20:15 *   T. Martincová   2 A. Kontaveit   Today Round of 64·Porsche Court Final   T. Martincová 64 6 6     N. Parrizas-Diaz 77 4 3   Sun, 14 Aug Qualifiers·Court 4 Final   T. Martincová 7 6   16 M. Linette 6 3   Sat, 13 Aug Qualifiers·Grandstand Final 1 I. Begu 1 7 6     T. Martincová 6 5 7   I think I will take a small double (1 unit) and then equal stakes ( 4 units each) on each of Martincova and Haddad Maia. 

For me the one long shot that I do like is Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Ostapenko.  She is on a hell of a run, reaching the Canadian Open final last weekend. And it was no fluke. Halep actually played exceptionally well to beat her, hardly missed a ball, and chased everything down.  But Haddad Maia beat some very good players along the way,
Bencic, Swiatek, Pliskova Fernandez is not bad at all.
Sun, 14 Aug Final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 3 6 3   15 S. Halep 6 2 6   Sun, 14 Aug Semi-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 79   14 K. Plíšková 4 67   Sat, 13 Aug Quarter-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 2 6 6   12 B. Bencic 6 3 3   Thu, 11 Aug Round of 16·Centre Court Final 1 I. Świątek 4 6 5     B. Haddad Maia 6 3 7   Wed, 10 Aug Round of 32·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 77 6   13 L. Fernandez 64 1   Mon, 08 Aug Round of 64·Court 1 Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 2 6     M. Trevisan 2 6 2  
The other favorite I really don't like is Anette Konteveit versus Martincova.  Something strange going on with Konteviet who is just so inconsistent at the moment. She lost first match last week (expected as she just flew in from Europe).  Martincova also played through qualifiers, so will have for more match-practice on the courts
Today Round of 32·Court 4 20:15 *   T. Martincová   2 A. Kontaveit   Today Round of 64·Porsche Court Final   T. Martincová 64 6 6     N. Parrizas-Diaz 77 4 3   Sun, 14 Aug Qualifiers·Court 4 Final   T. Martincová 7 6   16 M. Linette 6 3   Sat, 13 Aug Qualifiers·Grandstand Final 1 I. Begu 1 7 6     T. Martincová 6 5 7   I think I will take a small double (1 unit) and then equal stakes ( 4 units each) on each of Martincova and Haddad Maia. 

For me the one long shot that I do like is Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Ostapenko.  She is on a hell of a run, reaching the Canadian Open final last weekend. And it was no fluke. Halep actually played exceptionally well to beat her, hardly missed a ball, and chased everything down.  But Haddad Maia beat some very good players along the way,
Bencic, Swiatek, Pliskova Fernandez is not bad at all.
Sun, 14 Aug Final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 3 6 3   15 S. Halep 6 2 6   Sun, 14 Aug Semi-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 79   14 K. Plíšková 4 67   Sat, 13 Aug Quarter-final·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 2 6 6   12 B. Bencic 6 3 3   Thu, 11 Aug Round of 16·Centre Court Final 1 I. Świątek 4 6 5     B. Haddad Maia 6 3 7   Wed, 10 Aug Round of 32·Centre Court Final   B. Haddad Maia 77 6   13 L. Fernandez 64 1   Mon, 08 Aug Round of 64·Court 1 Final   B. Haddad Maia 6 2 6     M. Trevisan 2 6 2  
The other favorite I really don't like is Anette Konteveit versus Martincova.  Something strange going on with Konteviet who is just so inconsistent at the moment. She lost first match last week (expected as she just flew in from Europe).  Martincova also played through qualifiers, so will have for more match-practice on the courts
Today Round of 32·Court 4 20:15 *   T. Martincová   2 A. Kontaveit   Today Round of 64·Porsche Court Final   T. Martincová 64 6 6     N. Parrizas-Diaz 77 4 3   Sun, 14 Aug Qualifiers·Court 4 Final   T. Martincová 7 6   16 M. Linette 6 3   Sat, 13 Aug Qualifiers·Grandstand Final 1 I. Begu 1 7 6     T. Martincová 6 5 7   I think I will take a small double (1 unit) and then equal stakes ( 4 units each) on each of Martincova and Haddad Maia. 

Having watched Murray play Ymer and lose just recently, I simply cannot put 1 cent on Murray. He simply can't beat a 65% match fit Fritz.

Having watched Murray play Ymer and lose just recently, I simply cannot put 1 cent on Murray. He simply can't beat a 65% match fit Fritz.

Not been posting that much. Started a new consulting role, and it's going pretty well, Enjoying myself, but not much time for betting and tennis.
Just taking 45 minutes at lunch to chill a little.
Two low priced matches that I do like are Murray to get beaten by Fritz, and Draper to beat Gaston.   I have seen what Murray has got. He's OK, nothing brilliant, but he looks like a 35 year old. He's solid off the ground. but really has no way of collecting free points. My feeling is that Fritz is gonna serve him off the court. When somebody is serving so well, it sets up the rest of the game, to really have a go at the opponents serve. Essentially Fritz almost has a shot to nothing, every time Murray serves.
The other match involves 2 left handers, so it is a different dynamic for both of them. I think Draper has terrific potential. Very young, strong. I think (am hoping) that his game is technically more sound than Gaston. WIll take these two onto Nishioka to beat Paire. Nishioka has some serious confidence and form (from last week), and I think Paire gets ground down here. For me the -2.5 Nishioka at 1.83 is a steal.
Will just take these three as a treble which works out around 2.4 to 1 for 5 units (or 1/4 of my max stake).
Back to werk......... I go.
 

Having watched Murray play Ymer and lose just recently, I simply cannot put 1 cent on Murray. He simply can't beat a 65% match fit Fritz.

Looking at these North American tournaments, you really have to find a way to bet smart. You have to be able to control some of the outcomes in your bets. Either taking a small loss, or bailing out, or cashing out a couple of legs that have won.  So you have to have bets, and parlays that will conclude before you go to sleep. Otherwise you have no control (and you sleep with 1 eye open), and you can't adjust or have any influence. SO be disciplined and be aware of match starting times. I like to take low staked multi legged bets in these situations. I'll stake at levels, where I won't stress if I lose, and hopefully I find 1 or 2 parlays that work. 
For me I don't see much on the card for ATP Montreal qualifying. These matches look like 50-50 shouts.
In the Washington Final I think that Kyrigos overpowers Kishioka with his serve. Just a dominant weapon. Kyrigos has also been very good from the baseline. I feel that he should cover the -4.5 game handicap at odds of 1.9  Two other bets I do like are Tomljanovic and Lui to both win. The treble works out at 2 to 1 which is fine for me.
 
 

Looking at these North American tournaments, you really have to find a way to bet smart. You have to be able to control some of the outcomes in your bets. Either taking a small loss, or bailing out, or cashing out a couple of legs that have won.  So you have to have bets, and parlays that will conclude before you go to sleep. Otherwise you have no control (and you sleep with 1 eye open), and you can't adjust or have any influence. SO be disciplined and be aware of match starting times. I like to take low staked multi legged bets in these situations. I'll stake at levels, where I won't stress if I lose, and hopefully I find 1 or 2 parlays that work. 
For me I don't see much on the card for ATP Montreal qualifying. These matches look like 50-50 shouts.
In the Washington Final I think that Kyrigos overpowers Kishioka with his serve. Just a dominant weapon. Kyrigos has also been very good from the baseline. I feel that he should cover the -4.5 game handicap at odds of 1.9  Two other bets I do like are Tomljanovic and Lui to both win. The treble works out at 2 to 1 which is fine for me.
 
 

I agree. The 3rd set would really have favored Tiafoe. Now it is anyone's game.

I looked at the Washington weather forecast, and it is going to be a brutal 36C. Just very tough to play in.  The really hot weather does not favor big, heavier body types. For me Botic van de Zandschulp fits the bill here. AT 85kg, 6.3' he is gonna feel it today. His match with Gojo yesterday was also very long (3hours 9 min), and I think he may just be out on his feet.
His opponent (Francis Tiafoe won yesterday, in a quick match (1hour 24), so should be much fresher. I expect Tiafoe to win here and will take a medium bet here.
If they do split the first two sets, I will be all over him to win in 3, simply being way fresher.

One guy I'm not impressed with is Karatsev. Have not seen him look good on the court in ages. Seems to be battling against internal demons, and does not look happy on the court.
This year the stats (?) indicate that is is struggling. Played 33 matches lost 19 for a win rate of 42%. Last year he was miles better played 55 lost 19 for a win rate of  65%. SO it's a big drop off, especially on hard court (2022: W8L7) (2021: W26L11). But it is kind of to be expected. Coaches figure out players quickly, and a keen eye picks up a weakness. I think he's been found out.
Again a very hot day (33C) expected in Washington, but San Jose is much cooler (18C). Ymer really surprised me against Murray. He showed no effects of jetlag or a long flight, and seemed very energized. Really not sure why Karatsev should be favorite here, because his form is lousy.  Ymer for the straight win here, with a 2 unit bet (20 being my max stake.)
 

One guy I'm not impressed with is Karatsev. Have not seen him look good on the court in ages. Seems to be battling against internal demons, and does not look happy on the court.
This year the stats (?) indicate that is is struggling. Played 33 matches lost 19 for a win rate of 42%. Last year he was miles better played 55 lost 19 for a win rate of  65%. SO it's a big drop off, especially on hard court (2022: W8L7) (2021: W26L11). But it is kind of to be expected. Coaches figure out players quickly, and a keen eye picks up a weakness. I think he's been found out.
Again a very hot day (33C) expected in Washington, but San Jose is much cooler (18C). Ymer really surprised me against Murray. He showed no effects of jetlag or a long flight, and seemed very energized. Really not sure why Karatsev should be favorite here, because his form is lousy.  Ymer for the straight win here, with a 2 unit bet (20 being my max stake.)
 

One guy I'm not impressed with is Karatsev. Have not seen him look good on the court in ages. Seems to be battling against internal demons, and does not look happy on the court.
This year the stats (?) indicate that is is struggling. Played 33 matches lost 19 for a win rate of 42%. Last year he was miles better played 55 lost 19 for a win rate of  65%. SO it's a big drop off, especially on hard court (2022: W8L7) (2021: W26L11). But it is kind of to be expected. Coaches figure out players quickly, and a keen eye picks up a weakness. I think he's been found out.
Again a very hot day (33C) expected in Washington, but San Jose is much cooler (18C). Ymer really surprised me against Murray. He showed no effects of jetlag or a long flight, and seemed very energized. Really not sure why Karatsev should be favorite here, because his form is lousy.  Ymer for the straight win here, with a 2 unit bet (20 being my max stake.)
 

In your rambling post (which sounds like something you semi plagiarized from a gambling book) you state;
"Firstly, I want you to know that I did not set out to have a go at you in anyway"  and yet you hit a bullseye in that department ?
"I would feel very inadequate ..." is actually personal, condescending and insulting.
So thanks for the advice, but frankly,  I really would not like to have you as a 'mentor' ! ? However, if you can put your money where your mouth is, and point me in the direction of 5 straight winners I may consider it  ?
I second @Simeon Borisof in awaiting your learned opinion on todays card ....