neilovan

6 break points and 2 match points and somehow he fails to win the second set. Sinner has to win 1 point in any of those 8. 

6 break points and 2 match points and somehow he fails to win the second set. Sinner has to win 1 point in any of those 8. 

Should be very good tennis today in Monte Carlo.
For me I like all 4 matches. Tsitsipas likes the conditions and I think he gets the better of Khachanov.
I think Djokovic will be seriously motivated against De Minaur (wanting revenge for earlier season defeat). Price is not great but I will include him in a small multiplier.
Both Rune and Humbert had long tough matches yesterday. Humbert finished quite late last night, while Rune had a tough match with DImitrov. I don't think either will recover fully for today, and both will be a little flat. So In both matches I am taking the opponents (Sinner and Ruud) to win in straight sets. Ruud 8 to 10 and Sinner 4 to 10.
Gives a 4 legged bet odds of 4.2 which is OK. Not going crazy ... just a little incentive to keep some interest.

Should be very good tennis today in Monte Carlo.
For me I like all 4 matches. Tsitsipas likes the conditions and I think he gets the better of Khachanov.
I think Djokovic will be seriously motivated against De Minaur (wanting revenge for earlier season defeat). Price is not great but I will include him in a small multiplier.
Both Rune and Humbert had long tough matches yesterday. Humbert finished quite late last night, while Rune had a tough match with DImitrov. I don't think either will recover fully for today, and both will be a little flat. So In both matches I am taking the opponents (Sinner and Ruud) to win in straight sets. Ruud 8 to 10 and Sinner 4 to 10.
Gives a 4 legged bet odds of 4.2 which is OK. Not going crazy ... just a little incentive to keep some interest.

Two woman's picks I like today.
First is Sloan Stephens to beat Fernandez. Stephens in great form, while Fernandez is not. Nice odds of around 1.75 which is decent for me.
Second match is Kalinina to beat Kasatkina. Kalinina very on clay. Coming off a demolition job of Wozniaki (6-2  6-3) which is certainly not easy.  Odds of 2.35 make this a a very well priced shot. To see a scoreline of 6-3  0-6  6-1 for Kasatkina in her first match in CHarleston is just bizarre. She should not be losing a 2nd set 6-0. It shows a lack of focus and consistency.
Intersting to see Choinski beating up Hurkacz ATM. He looks strong and has Hurkacz under pressure every game so far. LOL I give him the thumbs up and he disintegrates...

Two woman's picks I like today.
First is Sloan Stephens to beat Fernandez. Stephens in great form, while Fernandez is not. Nice odds of around 1.75 which is decent for me.
Second match is Kalinina to beat Kasatkina. Kalinina very on clay. Coming off a demolition job of Wozniaki (6-2  6-3) which is certainly not easy.  Odds of 2.35 make this a a very well priced shot. To see a scoreline of 6-3  0-6  6-1 for Kasatkina in her first match in CHarleston is just bizarre. She should not be losing a 2nd set 6-0. It shows a lack of focus and consistency.
Intersting to see Choinski beating up Hurkacz ATM. He looks strong and has Hurkacz under pressure every game so far. LOL I give him the thumbs up and he disintegrates...

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.
If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.
It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.
Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..
Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.
In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.
If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.
It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.
Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..
Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.
In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.
If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.
Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.
 
I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.
 

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.
If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.
It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.
Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..
Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.
In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.
If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.
Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.
 
I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.
 

I am loving seeing the end of certain players that have gamed the system and their rankings for years. And it's an art form.
If a player gets automatically into the 9 ATP1000's and the 4 majors they are picking up (9x40K) and 4x75K) or 660 000$ without winning a match. But getting there is the battle, and anyone doing it earned their money. Tennis is just brutal. Not in the top 125, you are struggling.
It is insane money. But players like Fognini, Paire. Opelka, Carballes Beana, Carenno Busta, Rionic,  Wawrinka, Sock, Kyrigos must just give it up and retire.
Free some space up for more of the next gen (Cazaux, Tablio, Arnaldi)..
Two best matches today are probably Dimitrov v. Tabilo and Shapavalov v. Matteo Arnaldi. Grigor is an amazing player. He paints the court, but it is an unbettable match.
In the Arnaldi match I expect Arnaldi to win a close one.

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.
If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.
Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.
 
I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.
 

Two favorites I do like on the woman's side of the draw are Osaka to beat Garcia and Pavlychenkova to beat Alexandrova.
If you get a chance go and look at the highlights from Indian wells in the match between Kostyk and Pavlychenkova. Very high standard match where Kostyk won. There is no better athlete than her on the woman's tour. Olympic athlete quality, with a tennis racquet in her hand. Pavlyochenkova actually played well ... just ran into a buzz saw.  I think she has too much game for Alexandrova here. She is a tough,  physically strong competitor.
Caroline Garcia is not playing well. Lost 1st round of 3 of her last 4 tournaments. Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Dubai and just got over the line at Indian Wells. She is currenlty ranked 27 and that ranking does not lie. Her results in the USA are really poor. For some reason she is not comfortable there. Last season she lost 1st match Miami, Citi Open, Canadian Open, Western & Southern and US Open.  She's getting worse and Osaka is getting better, finding her confidence and fitness.  Garcia beat Osaka a few months ago, but Osaka was early on the comebac path. Will take Osaka and Pavlychenkova as a double. I will also take Osaka as a single in a bigger bet.
 
I think that Paolini has a very good chance to beat Navarro. For Paolini, the rise in the rankings has been crazy. I think she is 13 or 14 ranked now, which is an amazing climb. Both players have very good form at the moment so it will be a tough match. But Paolini has beaten 6 players in a row where she was the underdog, winning the WTA1000 in Dubai. She is in the best form/moment of her (tennis) life. I am not sure the 2.23 on Paolini is worth it. For me the slightly better bet is the over 21.5 games at 1.8 as you could win that in a close match that has a breaker.
 

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

Have not posted for a while. I think the Stephems  Cirstea match is really 50-50. Stephens won at Indian wells but Cirstea beat her at the Qatar Open 6-2  6-3. I thought Kerber was quite poor in her match with Stephens. Slow on the court and quite a way from top level fitness ... hitting everything at one pace, with a really poor 2nd serve. Made Stephens look way better than she is. I would be interesting to Know when Cirstea got into the West Coast (how many days before match), but she has probably been in Miami for at least a week getting ready. I expect much more from her this time. Her year has really been defined by a terrible start losing 1st round at Brisbane, Adelaide and the Aussie. 
Cirstea is based in Dubai, and may just be a poor traveller. Australia quite a long flisght - poor results. USA West Coast the same.

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

I think Elina Avanesyan has a very good shot at beating Ons Javeur. Jabuer right off form losing in straight sets to Volynets, Tsurenko and Haddad Maia. In between she won a couple of matches against Starodubtseva, Bronzettie and Krueger, but she was an overwhelming favorite for all 3 of those.
Avanesyan demolished Andreeva. It was a proper spanking after being iced 2nd set (6-0  3-6  6-1)
1st set was literally 18 minutes. Andreeva then went for a bathroom break of 6 minutes which is a joke (impossible to be tired after 18 minutes of tennis).  Avanesyan then squashed her in the 3rd (6-1).  Avanesyan is very good. Physically fit and strong, and mentally tough, with confidence and a level of calmness. 
For me Jabeur looks the opposite. Unfit and at odds with her game, having lost 1st match in Qatar and Indian Wells. Taking the straight win for Avanesyan here but may even go whole hog and go for 2-0 in sets which is 4.5
 
I don't think Murray beats Etcheverry. Etcheverry beat him convincingly at the Aussie open, and Murray just does not have the physical capacity to play the grinding game, like he did in the past. He used to be the "Grinder" and now he is the "Grindee".
OK, he beat Berrettini but Berrettini served poorly (64% 1st serve in). I watched Berrettini at the Aussie open v Kevin Anderson a few years back and he made 15 first serves in a row, so he is some way from his best. If his 1st serve is off, he struggles ...  when it's on he gets endless freebee's.
Murray should be figuring out how to shorten matches, volley and be more aggressive. The older he gets, the more his physical ability diminishes. Quicker matches helps him, and grinding 3 setters don't. But he refuses to try andything different, and the old way will not deliver any more.
 

Have not posted for a while. I think the Stephems  Cirstea match is really 50-50. Stephens won at Indian wells but Cirstea beat her at the Qatar Open 6-2  6-3. I thought Kerber was quite poor in her match with Stephens. Slow on the court and quite a way from top level fitness ... hitting everything at one pace, with a really poor 2nd serve. Made Stephens look way better than she is. I would be interesting to Know when Cirstea got into the West Coast (how many days before match), but she has probably been in Miami for at least a week getting ready. I expect much more from her this time. Her year has really been defined by a terrible start losing 1st round at Brisbane, Adelaide and the Aussie. 
Cirstea is based in Dubai, and may just be a poor traveller. Australia quite a long flisght - poor results. USA West Coast the same.

Watched the Kalinskaya v Stephens match. Kalinskaya was down 3-4 3rd set, and faced 2 break points. SHe kept her head, survived and landed up winning the last 3 games. She is an excellent athlete. Strong and very well balanced. She has an excellent backhand that she hits up the line, which just kills opponents.  I think she wins against Paolini.
I think tommorow's 4th round mens matches are all in the balance. Medvedev is not convincing. I don't know how he got past Ruusuvouri because its a match he should have lost. Ruusuvouri didn't believe he could win. It was pretty odd. His opponent Nuno Borges was certainly not expected to beat Dimitrov, so I feel this will be a lot closer than people expect. A close match here and I think over 30.5 games is worth a bet at 1.90
I think Hurkacz has his hands fully with Cazaux. For me Rune a much better player, yet Cazaux just put him away easily. I think it will be a relatively long match (both have excellent serves), but I'm taking Cazaux to win here. The kid has that bullet proof confidence of youth and I give him the edge when it comes to serving, which could prove the deciding factor in the breakers.
I gave Norrie no chance to beat Ruud. I didn't see the game. I don't know if Ruud just had a bad day, but it is a surprise result. Norrie is better than he looks. He has this weird style ... like a far more physically capable Mannarino. I think if he gets his tactics right against Zverev he can win. For me, Zverev has a terrible transition game (moving off the baseline, and hitting a midcourt volley or half volley). He can't hit through that ball, and he can't get his tall frame low enough.
On the baseline he looks amazing ... that 2 handed backhand is as good as Djoko's. But in transition play, he can't get his big frame low enough to hit those shots effectively. Its a glaring weakness in his game. Over 38.5 games at 1.83
I have not been impressed with Alcaraz. He has so much talent and physicality, but I don't see the expected improvements in his game. He still looks like an unpolished diamond. I watched the Kecmanovic match against Paul. Paul had 2 match points in the 4th set break, yet still lost it 9-7. 5th set Kecmanovic destroyed him. This is a very strong, underrated opponent who can give plenty of problems.  Over 30.5 games at 1.83
 

Watched the Kalinskaya v Stephens match. Kalinskaya was down 3-4 3rd set, and faced 2 break points. SHe kept her head, survived and landed up winning the last 3 games. She is an excellent athlete. Strong and very well balanced. She has an excellent backhand that she hits up the line, which just kills opponents.  I think she wins against Paolini.
I think tommorow's 4th round mens matches are all in the balance. Medvedev is not convincing. I don't know how he got past Ruusuvouri because its a match he should have lost. Ruusuvouri didn't believe he could win. It was pretty odd. His opponent Nuno Borges was certainly not expected to beat Dimitrov, so I feel this will be a lot closer than people expect. A close match here and I think over 30.5 games is worth a bet at 1.90
I think Hurkacz has his hands fully with Cazaux. For me Rune a much better player, yet Cazaux just put him away easily. I think it will be a relatively long match (both have excellent serves), but I'm taking Cazaux to win here. The kid has that bullet proof confidence of youth and I give him the edge when it comes to serving, which could prove the deciding factor in the breakers.
I gave Norrie no chance to beat Ruud. I didn't see the game. I don't know if Ruud just had a bad day, but it is a surprise result. Norrie is better than he looks. He has this weird style ... like a far more physically capable Mannarino. I think if he gets his tactics right against Zverev he can win. For me, Zverev has a terrible transition game (moving off the baseline, and hitting a midcourt volley or half volley). He can't hit through that ball, and he can't get his tall frame low enough.
On the baseline he looks amazing ... that 2 handed backhand is as good as Djoko's. But in transition play, he can't get his big frame low enough to hit those shots effectively. Its a glaring weakness in his game. Over 38.5 games at 1.83
I have not been impressed with Alcaraz. He has so much talent and physicality, but I don't see the expected improvements in his game. He still looks like an unpolished diamond. I watched the Kecmanovic match against Paul. Paul had 2 match points in the 4th set break, yet still lost it 9-7. 5th set Kecmanovic destroyed him. This is a very strong, underrated opponent who can give plenty of problems.  Over 30.5 games at 1.83
 

For me a very difficult, unpredictable Aussie open.
How many people see Dimitrov losing to Borges, or Norrie beating an in form Ruud?
Regardless of how well Tsitsipas plays, his 1 handed backhand is just such an average shot. Fritz can more than match him, and the key matchup between his 2 handed backhand and Tsitsi's 1 hander may be the difference.  Serving wise, Fritz has the edge, and I think he just comes out on top.
I fancy de Minaur to beat Rublev. Andre is just too emotional. He gets so infuriated on the court, and it distracts and wastes energy. The crowd will largely be against Rublev, and I think this 'Davis Cup' type atmosphere will have an effect. Two very similar players, but for me de Minuar has the edge physically. He has also played 9 sets, dropping more than 3 games in a set just once. So he should be a lot fresher. He cleaned up Arnaldi and Coboli, and was done quickly with Raonic in a W/O in 1st round.
 
 

For me a very difficult, unpredictable Aussie open.
How many people see Dimitrov losing to Borges, or Norrie beating an in form Ruud?
Regardless of how well Tsitsipas plays, his 1 handed backhand is just such an average shot. Fritz can more than match him, and the key matchup between his 2 handed backhand and Tsitsi's 1 hander may be the difference.  Serving wise, Fritz has the edge, and I think he just comes out on top.
I fancy de Minaur to beat Rublev. Andre is just too emotional. He gets so infuriated on the court, and it distracts and wastes energy. The crowd will largely be against Rublev, and I think this 'Davis Cup' type atmosphere will have an effect. Two very similar players, but for me de Minuar has the edge physically. He has also played 9 sets, dropping more than 3 games in a set just once. So he should be a lot fresher. He cleaned up Arnaldi and Coboli, and was done quickly with Raonic in a W/O in 1st round.