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neilovan

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  1. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Oct 3rd   
    AZ v Man United
    I really like the team that United are putting out.
    Looking forward to seeing Brandon WIlliams, who hopefully has a great start and maybe is the long term replacement for Shaw.
    Also for me Dalot is a huge upgrade on both Lingard and Perreira. I have no problem with Fred in midfield.The guy has a solid engine, and it is simply not easy to shine in a mis-firing team that is lacking confidence. I think Pogba is not missed at all.  He doesn't bring it and hardly influences a game.
     
    It will still be disjointed. Too many new faces together for the 1st time on an old astroturf surface. I would definitely be going more second half goals in this game (odds 2.05) , and possible the HT draw, Man United win FT  (odds 5.5).
    I think United grind out a 0-1 or 0-2 win here.
     
     
  2. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st   
    I think Chelsea will pound Newcastle probably 3 or 4 nil. Man United are just so useless that Newcastle looked reasonably good. 
  3. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from MaliMisko12 in Premier League Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st   
    Aston Villa v Brighton
    Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

    Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
    More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
     
    Man United v Liverpool 
    Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

    Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

    Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

    One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

    Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

    I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

    Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
    Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
    Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
    Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.
  4. Like
    neilovan reacted to KikoCy in Premier League Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st   
    @neilovan
    Great analysis. Villa HT/FT is 3.90, if you're feeling risky.
    I think Leicester is a banker but personally staying away from games post-international break.
  5. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st   
    Aston Villa v Brighton
    Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

    Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
    More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
     
    Man United v Liverpool 
    Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

    Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

    Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

    One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

    Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

    I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

    Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
    Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
    Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
    Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.
  6. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from KikoCy in Premier League Predictions > Oct 19th - 21st   
    Aston Villa v Brighton
    Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

    Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
    More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
     
    Man United v Liverpool 
    Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

    Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

    Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

    One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

    Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

    I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

    Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
    Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
    Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
    Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.
  7. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 28th - 30th   
    That win to NIL bet is just so tricky to win. There is always some stupid goal or weird stuff that  kills it.
  8. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from vicsuna in Premier League Predictions > Sep 28th - 30th   
    Man United v Arsenal
    My feeling is that Man United and Arsenal are just too inconsistent to have a large (MATCH WINNER) bet on at the moment.
    United are hampered by Pogba who is a disruption. He wants away, and they should sell him to Real Madrid for 100million +.  Rather have 2 new 50 million pound midfielders that Poggie, that will give less problems, and cost less, and give more effort. For me it is a no-brainer. If they can get it done in Januray then great. C ya!
    At the moment Pogba is a bad fit  for United. I say this for a number of reasons;
    1) He is no leader. You can't build a team around this guy.
    2) He feels he is bigger than the club. He is definitely putting his own interests first all the time, not helped by Ole bending over to accommodate him 
    3) He has an agent  that causes friction and discontentment 
    4) His attitude is that he does not want to be part of a 3 year Man United rebuilding cycle. He wants to play in the Champions League, and craves the spotlight.  
    OK, NP sell him for the maximum. Seriously, how many really good games has he had for United in his stay there? 5 maybe...
    Rather sell him and get two new midfielders that will give 100% and have a consistent rating of 6.5 to 8 most weeks.
    Both Arsenal and United are conceding goals. United have the problem of not scoring enough, and are definitely a center forward short. Obviously the deal from Inter (for Lukaku sweetend with the Sanchez loan) was to good too turn down. But the injury to Martial has really screwed them. How is it possible that a team of the size of United have no center forward? Quite interesting in that both Morata and Lukaku are gone from the Premier league...
    Arsenal have such a potent threat upfront. This is a team that will score goals. Aubameyang takes his chances well, but Lacazette will be missed. I do feel that Arsenal have more confidence than United at the moment, and it should just give them a slight edge.
    Between these two inconsistent, relatively fairly matched teams, I would definitely be going over 2.5 goals in the game, instead of trying to find a winner.
  9. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from Torque in Premier League Predictions > Sep 28th - 30th   
    That win to NIL bet is just so tricky to win. There is always some stupid goal or weird stuff that  kills it.
  10. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 28th - 30th   
    Man United v Arsenal
    My feeling is that Man United and Arsenal are just too inconsistent to have a large (MATCH WINNER) bet on at the moment.
    United are hampered by Pogba who is a disruption. He wants away, and they should sell him to Real Madrid for 100million +.  Rather have 2 new 50 million pound midfielders that Poggie, that will give less problems, and cost less, and give more effort. For me it is a no-brainer. If they can get it done in Januray then great. C ya!
    At the moment Pogba is a bad fit  for United. I say this for a number of reasons;
    1) He is no leader. You can't build a team around this guy.
    2) He feels he is bigger than the club. He is definitely putting his own interests first all the time, not helped by Ole bending over to accommodate him 
    3) He has an agent  that causes friction and discontentment 
    4) His attitude is that he does not want to be part of a 3 year Man United rebuilding cycle. He wants to play in the Champions League, and craves the spotlight.  
    OK, NP sell him for the maximum. Seriously, how many really good games has he had for United in his stay there? 5 maybe...
    Rather sell him and get two new midfielders that will give 100% and have a consistent rating of 6.5 to 8 most weeks.
    Both Arsenal and United are conceding goals. United have the problem of not scoring enough, and are definitely a center forward short. Obviously the deal from Inter (for Lukaku sweetend with the Sanchez loan) was to good too turn down. But the injury to Martial has really screwed them. How is it possible that a team of the size of United have no center forward? Quite interesting in that both Morata and Lukaku are gone from the Premier league...
    Arsenal have such a potent threat upfront. This is a team that will score goals. Aubameyang takes his chances well, but Lacazette will be missed. I do feel that Arsenal have more confidence than United at the moment, and it should just give them a slight edge.
    Between these two inconsistent, relatively fairly matched teams, I would definitely be going over 2.5 goals in the game, instead of trying to find a winner.
  11. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 20th - 22nd   
    Two interesting games this afternoon.
    West Ham v Man United
    Watching Man United is not even enjoyable anymore. The football is insipid, and they still have no real style of play. Wingers or wing-backs are still stopping, and kicking the balkl backwards and sideways. Nothing much has changed under OGS, except the average age of the team on the field.
    I don't think West Ham can beat them, but I just don't see a clean sheet from Man U, or Man United scoring more than a goal. So another low scoring borefest on the cards here.
    The West Ham double chance bet looks solid.
    Chelsea v Liverpool
    I have a funny feeling Liverpool lose this game. They were not to good against Napoli in the CL midweek. I have a feeling they come out a little flat and get outplayed. CHelsea have been playing decent football, and sometimes not getting the results. But their style of play, and tactics are decent, and they will get better every week.  Home win and over 2.5 goals here.
     
     
  12. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 28th - 30th   
    Everton v Man City
    The Norwich City game against Man CIty was just one of those really weird days. Take nothing away from Norwich, they were great .... but normally a team like City would find a way. Man CIty know they are 5 points behind Liverpool, and one of the ways to catch up 1 extra point is to beat Liverpool on goal difference. So I expect City to be very aggressive in going after goals. There will not be much sitting back and cruising at 3-0. They are going to spank teams 5 and 6, and they will do this surprisingly often.
    Everton are just such a weird team it is crazy.  They go into the game against Shff U with such good home form, and just don't show. Bizarre.
    I think they get an absolute hiding from a Man CIty team that will counter it's defensive woes by banging in bucket loads of goals.
    The away win and over 2.5 goals is about 1.7 and looks as close to a banker that I can find this weekend. 
    I think Man CIty cover the 3.5 goals and win which is at odds of 2.3
     
     
  13. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in EFL Cup Predictions > Sep 24th & 25th   
    I really don't fancy Man United against anybody at the moment. After a freak 4-0 win over Chelsea they have managed just 5 goals in 6 games played. I think 2 of those were penalties. I think you see another disjointed performance from United, as all the rusty fringe players get a potential run out. United probably play at least 5 youngsters so I am not expecting much. A scrappy low scoring game on the cards here.
    I would really like to see Axel Taunzebe play, hopefully with Maguire. For me this has potential to be  United's best center back pairing. Get the partnership going !
    United squad :
    Sergio Romero, Lee Grant, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Victor Lindelof, Phil Jones, Axel Tuanzebe, Marcos Rojo, Brandon Williams, Scott McTominay, Andreas Pereira, Paul Pogba, Fred, James Garner, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Mason Greenwood, Daniel James, Tahith Chong.
     would be tempted to take Rochdale on the double chance here. Odds of 7 are decent for a small bet.
     
     
  14. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from CzechPunter in EFL Cup Predictions > Sep 24th & 25th   
    I really don't fancy Man United against anybody at the moment. After a freak 4-0 win over Chelsea they have managed just 5 goals in 6 games played. I think 2 of those were penalties. I think you see another disjointed performance from United, as all the rusty fringe players get a potential run out. United probably play at least 5 youngsters so I am not expecting much. A scrappy low scoring game on the cards here.
    I would really like to see Axel Taunzebe play, hopefully with Maguire. For me this has potential to be  United's best center back pairing. Get the partnership going !
    United squad :
    Sergio Romero, Lee Grant, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Victor Lindelof, Phil Jones, Axel Tuanzebe, Marcos Rojo, Brandon Williams, Scott McTominay, Andreas Pereira, Paul Pogba, Fred, James Garner, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Mason Greenwood, Daniel James, Tahith Chong.
     would be tempted to take Rochdale on the double chance here. Odds of 7 are decent for a small bet.
     
     
  15. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from waynecoyne in EFL Cup Predictions > Sep 24th & 25th   
    I really don't fancy Man United against anybody at the moment. After a freak 4-0 win over Chelsea they have managed just 5 goals in 6 games played. I think 2 of those were penalties. I think you see another disjointed performance from United, as all the rusty fringe players get a potential run out. United probably play at least 5 youngsters so I am not expecting much. A scrappy low scoring game on the cards here.
    I would really like to see Axel Taunzebe play, hopefully with Maguire. For me this has potential to be  United's best center back pairing. Get the partnership going !
    United squad :
    Sergio Romero, Lee Grant, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Victor Lindelof, Phil Jones, Axel Tuanzebe, Marcos Rojo, Brandon Williams, Scott McTominay, Andreas Pereira, Paul Pogba, Fred, James Garner, Juan Mata, Jesse Lingard, Mason Greenwood, Daniel James, Tahith Chong.
     would be tempted to take Rochdale on the double chance here. Odds of 7 are decent for a small bet.
     
     
  16. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 14th - 16th   
    I'm a Man United fan and I think we are as bad as 8th or 9th. There is simply no experienced midfield quality playing today. I think you see a really disjointed game from United, where they are unable to create much/anything. The stats don't lie. This team has won 3 of their last 13 league games. 4-0 Chelsea and 2 fluke wins over West Ham and Watford where they were outplayed for vast periods of the game. A good beating from Leicester could be the start of the end for OGS. Hopefully Potch has a fallout with Levy and become the new manager when Solksjaer gets his marching orders.
    Just a ridiculous kneejerk reaction to appoint the guy in the 1st place, based on a last minute dubious penalty against PSG in the CL. The team has been useless this season. Would any other huge club such as  Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, PSG, Porto, Benfica, Ajax, Dortmund be in such a bad position?
    All very well to go down the youth path, but there has to be a mix and blend. It is not nearly the same as Fergie winning with boys, because those guys had all played along side each other for 6 years. I'll be very surprised if United even score and expect them to get zip from this game.
  17. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Premier League Predictions > Sep 14th - 16th   
    Man United v Leicester
    I don't like United in this game.
    United have no ability to pass the ball forward and move it well. Forget the Chelsea game, it was a fluke result. United scored first, against the run of play, and then caught Chelsea on the break. Pogba seems to want to do too much, and gets caught with the ball often. WHo else can provide any midfield quality ?
    United have just 3 goals in their last 3 games, and 1 is from an out and out winger. Rashford looks ice cold, perhaps over-hyped. Martial is injured, or if back will not be match fit. The  goalthreat  up front looks quite dull. I think getting Dalot back in the team will definitely help United. He is an upgrade on Lingaard (no confidence) and probably Perreira as well. He gives them a decent right sided midifleld balance. I would also like to see Fred have a run of games. Most don't like him, but he has a good engine, and will give them midfield legs. Most of the time he has played in a crappy team, with no real tactics or direction. Even if some of these guys do start, it is unlikely they will be up to match day speed and intensity.
    Leicester look good. Rogers is a solid manager, and there seems to be a healthy synergy at the club.  Do they target Lindelof (who looks suspect under the long ball). I would be taking the Leicester win here and Jamie Vardy to score. The crazy thing is that United will be 10 points behind Liverpool after 5 games of the season.
    Closer to relegation than the top 4. OGS in presser today  "...we don't want to be behind Tottenham or Chelsea or Arsenal" . Lets not even mention Liverpool and Man CIty, and avoid WOlves, Leicester and West Ham. United could finish 8th or 9th this season.
    So injury news is that Pogba will not play (probably a bonus for United). Think Leicester win this 0-2.
     
  18. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from vicsuna in Premier League Predictions > Sep 14th - 16th   
    I'm a Man United fan and I think we are as bad as 8th or 9th. There is simply no experienced midfield quality playing today. I think you see a really disjointed game from United, where they are unable to create much/anything. The stats don't lie. This team has won 3 of their last 13 league games. 4-0 Chelsea and 2 fluke wins over West Ham and Watford where they were outplayed for vast periods of the game. A good beating from Leicester could be the start of the end for OGS. Hopefully Potch has a fallout with Levy and become the new manager when Solksjaer gets his marching orders.
    Just a ridiculous kneejerk reaction to appoint the guy in the 1st place, based on a last minute dubious penalty against PSG in the CL. The team has been useless this season. Would any other huge club such as  Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, PSG, Porto, Benfica, Ajax, Dortmund be in such a bad position?
    All very well to go down the youth path, but there has to be a mix and blend. It is not nearly the same as Fergie winning with boys, because those guys had all played along side each other for 6 years. I'll be very surprised if United even score and expect them to get zip from this game.
  19. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2019   
    Well, Serena got properly spanked.Forget the slight 2nd set comeback, it was a hiding. Andreescu let her concentration wander at 5-1.
    My favorite next gen player is  Medvedev, but I don't think he is ready to beat Nadal here. His game has really improved, but he needs to up his fitness and workrate. He can take care of Federer in a 3 setter, but the blitzing he got from Nadal at Cincinnati (6-3 6-0) cannot be underestimated. That is a proper  ass kicking.  I think Medvedev is capable of taking a set here, but I can't see him winning it. My feeling is that there will be at least one set that Nadal romps (probably 61 or 62. Would be going for a 4 setter at odds of  2.8
     
  20. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from CzechPunter in US Open 2019   
    Andreescu has just had the most amazing breakout year. If memory serves me correctly, it started before the Aussie open in Auckland, where a couple of freaky results stood out for me. In the round of 16 she beat the #1 seed (Wozniacki  6-4 6-4). In the next match she showed me the mindset of a future star.
    She played Venus WIlliams and lost the 1st set 6-7. Most players on the woman's tour (and quite a few in the mens) fold up in the second after a close, emotionally and physically invested 1st set. This kid took WIlliams to pieces winning 6-7 6-1 6-3.  It was an eye opener. A ridiculous break out season follows, with wins at Indian Wells and in Toronto.
    The seasons record is ridiculously good, winning 34 of 39 matches (87%). This is after stepping up from ITF with a win percentage of 73%.  Come on, get real, stepping up 2 divisions, she starts spanking good players.
    So, can she beat Serena?  I don't think Serena can intimidate her with power, but the trick for Andreescu is to keep it close in the 1st set.  Keep Serena on the court, and her possibilities increase as the match goes on. Two simple tactics will really help her. Make Serena move  ... so don't give her a stable platform to crank the ball. SO more balls down the sides, and get Serena moving forward. In my opinion the woman's game is very 1 dimensional. They hate volleying, and most are baseline hitting machines.  
    Odds of 3.3 for the Andreescu win are not that brilliant, but they suggest no easy ride for Serena here. I think a close match is on the cards, and would rather go 3 sets at better than odds of 2.6
     
  21. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from avongirl in How do you find field size affects profit?   
    I think field size is a double edged sword, but in my opinion is not the right question. You need to combine it with buy in and speed of the levels.
    A big field with a low buy in usually attracts plenty of bad players. So you have to be aggressive early and make sure you get your share of their chips.  A fast tournament turns things into a shot-out, where you MUST gamble to get somewhere. This is not an ideal situation, because your ability to stay patient and play premium hands is undermined.
    The biggest problem with a big field is that you will be going 'all-in' more often. Very infrequent that you play a tourn and don't have to risk your life in it a few times. Particularly annoying when you have invested 5 hours in something to be donked out by the village idiot. Not like you can reload (ie cash game).  SO if you are in a tournament like this, you need to take some calculated risks earlier,  and build a helthy stake early. Otherwise, you come to the last 2 tables hanging on in any case.
    I think you need to look at field quality. The easiest way to do this online or live is to play the same tournament regularly. You pick up the vibe. How long does it take, which players to avoid, where is the easy money. If you have a limited amount of time, field size is a big deal. No good starting a tournament at 8pm, and getting to the business end at 2 in the morning. When you need to be your sharpest your batteries are running  low. 
  22. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from kroni in US Open 2019   
    Medvedev v Dimitrov
    For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.
    Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 
    Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 
    So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  
    For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.
    I see a 1 sided bashing here.
    Nadal v Berrittini
    Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.
  23. Thanks
    neilovan got a reaction from Hermes in US Open 2019   
    Medvedev v Dimitrov
    For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.
    Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 
    Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 
    So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  
    For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.
    I see a 1 sided bashing here.
    Nadal v Berrittini
    Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.
  24. Thanks
    neilovan got a reaction from OyA OyA Oya in US Open 2019   
    Medvedev v Dimitrov
    For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.
    Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 
    Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 
    So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  
    For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.
    I see a 1 sided bashing here.
    Nadal v Berrittini
    Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.
  25. Like
    neilovan got a reaction from MaliMisko12 in US Open 2019   
    Medvedev v Dimitrov
    For me this match is a total no contest. Gregor has a terrible match-up here. A clash of very similar styles.
    Medvedev has more than enough to beat him at his own game, and has had  2 days off, to recover from his slight thigh strain. I don't think the win over Federer was spectacular for Gregor. Fed is 38 years old, so he was quite likely to run outta gas in  the latter part of the 4th and 5th set. 
    Look, at this level, players are unbelievably good ... every player can hit the ball. So the game boils down to who makes the right decisions at the right time, and who plays the big points better. In my opinion, Gregor makes bad choices at the worst possible time, while Medvedev does the opposite. Gregor is a great player, but there is some subconcious barrier that stops him from going to the highest level. Medvedev has amazing court craft. He understands what to do and when to do it. You can't teach this stuff. At this stage a player either has it, or doesn't.  It's like a top striker in soccer. He knows, without looking where the goalkeeper is, and what he has to do to score. 
    So how to make money here ? 1st set is critical. I think if Medvedev wins it, he wins very easily in 3.  
    For me taking Medvedev at 4 to 10 is not to good. Maybe the best bet is to essentially lay the match going to 5 sets, by just betting total sets 3 and 4 for an equal stake.
    I see a 1 sided bashing here.
    Nadal v Berrittini
    Never seen Nadal play this well. He is crushing the ball, with an intensity that is almost inhuman. I would be going under 31.5 total games here, in what should be a blow out. I just don't think Berrittini will get those easy service holds, and could get demolished here.