neilovan

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 
Some bets I do like today
Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3
Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22
Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44
Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3
Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.
On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.
 
 

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 
Some bets I do like today
Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3
Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22
Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44
Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3
Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.
On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.
 
 

and like clockwork the loser retires
Jakupovic, Dalila v Van Uytvanck, Alison 2-Way Odds (12) 12.57 Stake Max. Payout 500.00 1270

and like clockwork the loser retires
Jakupovic, Dalila v Van Uytvanck, Alison 2-Way Odds (12) 12.57 Stake Max. Payout 500.00 1270

There are some players in the WTA that you just can't touch. Two of note for me : Elise Mertens and Caroline Garcia. When they win, they just get over the line and when they lose the performance is beyond belief. Today Mertens played a bog standard opponent in Magda Linette. Should be a simple warm up for the next round. Mertens could simply not work out how to win a point behind her serve on the deuce court.  She was so bad it was pitiful.  3rd set she is 2-1 up and serving first (huge advantage in woman's game). Just disintegrates and loses 5 games in a row. Just awful tennis ... and this is a player ranked 25? 
Some bets I do like today
Munar Clar, Jaume Antoni vs Ymer, Mikael  1.3
Cecchinato, Marco vs Poljicak, Mili  1.22
Daniel, Taro vs Korda, Sebastian   1.44
Nakashima, Brandon vs Thompson, Jordan 1.3
Gives almost 2-1 for the quad. A medium sized bet for me. but I'm not getting involved too heavily.
On a day like this where there is not much happening best to chill and not go looking for trouble.
 
 

Just watching the Jakupovic v van Uytvanck match. Is it so hot in Prague that van Uytvanck can't play?

Some of the things you see  on the ATP/WTA are just a disgrace. That a professional match should start at 10pm (or later) is a joke. Seriously ... which athlete performs best between 10.30 and midnight? It's laughable. I would definitely be going for Sorribes-Tormo later. She is the fav, and she (being Spanish) should be more suited to the late evening. 

Thanks,
I think Cerundolo runs into the same situation. Even if he manages to win the 1st set (which I doubt), it will still be decent to take Musetti at good odds. I think the very hot day (Wed) wiped players out, and put them in a depleted zone. Musetti had an easy win yesterday, while Cerundolo was in the red  zone for 2/3rds of his match.

Musetti off to a very good start. If he takes the 1st set and they are giving odds of 1.5+ to 10 it is worth a big bet. Cerundolo looks beat already. Missing that forehand due to fatigue. 
 
Can actually bet what you like here. Only one winner.

Konteveit v Bernarda Pera should be a petty good match. Konteveit just too hit or miss for me at the moment. Seems to have no patience, and wants to blast the ball (and opponent) off the court. At this level, it won't happen consistently. Players are too good. Pera definitely improved, with a really tricky lefty forehand will give her problems. I expect a very close game here, but I think Konteveit could just blow up when things don't go her way. It takes the games out of the equation. I will take Pera outright on a small bet to win at 2.37
If Konteveit gets off to a flyer, I'll trade out and back her big to win. I'm prepared to take a big low odds bet if I see dominance and momentum.

Cerundolo nearly blew it  ( from a set up and 4-1), against am opponent that had almost given up. He managed to come back from being behind in almost the whole of the 3rd set. For me Karatsev just struggling internally. Looked aggravated with himself, and probably was not great company after yesterdays match. He blew it. Cerundolo looked mentally and physically exhausted at various stages of the 2nd and 3rd sets. My feeling is there is nothing left in the tank today. Playing and winning last week, and going deep here, is not the norm for him. Mentally and physically, he looked fatigued
Musetti is playing well again. I lost a bet on him yesterday, as he was too good for Davidovich- Fokina (I thought games). Over the off court issues and is a hell of a player. Hard to believe he is only 20, and he looks every inch the player who took two sets of Djokovic at the French a few years ago. He is moving very well and hitting the ball really well. 
I think he wins this match. First set is crucial and if Cerundolo loses it, there is simply no way he can win in 3. He is outta juice.  So I'll take Musetti outright, and be prepared to lump it on (even at reduced odds), if he wins the 1st set.

Wow, how good was that. Just so solid from both sides. Cerundolo has incredible fast hands and racquet speed. Hits the ball amazingly for a reasonably small guy. A move from outside the top 100 at the start of the year, to probably # 27 now. Just fantastico !!!
 

Not convinced regarding Konteveit today. She is showing no patience on the clay. It is very hit or miss, no crafting of a point or playing to patterns. I think that a very in form opponent will give her a lot of problems, and if this goes to a long 1st set, she is in trouble. Small bet on the up and coming Potapova here for the outright win. I think with 1 close set this match gets over the 20.5 games mark. I like a medium bet on the over 20.5 games which is 8 to 10.
In the other semi in Hamburg, I think Pera just cruises. I am using a slightly different staking strategy.  I am taking 3 separate bets of medium stake, and then holding back with a big bet once I see which way the match is going. If it goes against me, I am able to cash out (for a loss) some of my stake.  If the match is going my way, I am happy for a big bet (at lower odds). It has been working very well (in-play), but I am not sure if that is due to the clay surface (being more predictable than grass/hard).
Definitely going big on both Berretinni and Ruud again today. Will take both to win as a double. Vinolas is shaky, and I'll bet in play if somebody really gets on top. Should be a close one and probably best to stay away. WHo wants to gamble?????
I think Thiem is on his way . A score of 1-3 and odds of 1.21 look OK for me. Happy to plonk it down here.

I know that, made it just because it's indoor

Wow, how good was that. Just so solid from both sides. Cerundolo has incredible fast hands and racquet speed. Hits the ball amazingly for a reasonably small guy. A move from outside the top 100 at the start of the year, to probably # 27 now. Just fantastico !!!
 

Been an interesting year on the ATP as players like Philip Kolschrieber, Kevin Anderson, Lopez, Sam Querry, Fognini fade away.
Their places open up new spots for the likes of Rune, Cerundolo (F), Baez, Cressy, Molcan, Lehecka, Halys , Hueslar etc . It's nice to see some new and very talented players break through.
For me Fognini is on the downslope out of the top 100. Still may take another year or so, but it gets harder as the ranking fades and you meet better players, earlier in tournaments. A matchup against Khachanov is just tough. Khachanov ranked at 26 and Fognini at 61, with Khachanov having almost double Fognini's points.
And the stats don't lie. Fognini has lost 6 of his last 8 clay court matches. He got into main draw of Swedish open as lucky loser, and lost to Baez in straights. His two wins were against Popyrin (102) and Thiem (162).  A relatively comfortable win for Khachanov here.
 
I think the Rublev match against Franscisco Cerundolo is going to be excellent. No doubt the match of the round. A very similar matchup of styles, with Cerundolo coming into it, full of confidence after last weeks tournament win. It was no fluke for him last week. He has a rock solid, terrific backhand, and I think Rublev has all kinds of problems with him today. I would be backing Cerundolo to cover the games spread of +3.5 (odds 1.72) and maybe a small bet on him to win the match.
 
Dominic Thiem v Frederico Delbonis. Quite impressed with Theim who is still on the comback trail. He had two very good wins (Bautista Agut, Ruusuvouri) at the Nordic open before losing to Baez in the quarters.  All three matches were 3 setters, which would have been an excellent test for his recovering injury. My software is undecided on this game, but I think Thiem wins here. Happy to take the straight win.
 
I think there is some value in going for a couple of low priced favorites. I think the Ruud v Lehecka match (1.2) and the Berrettini v Gasquet (1.25)  can only end one way. Will take Ruud and Berrittini  as a double which will give 5 to 10, onto Putintseva to beat Parry (WTA Palermo). Putintseva too good on clay and should be comfortable there. Parry did beat Krejcikova at the French but Babora was injured, so I am discounting that win. She has no clay court form at all. I think @CzechPunter is on a sticky wicket here :).
As a treble this comes out at even money

I backed Cerundolo +1.5 set thanks to @neilovan

The Busta match was on TV here, and he really should have won it. Played so badly on the big points, but it must have been as hot as hell there. But there is so little between the a player ranked 15 and one ranked 85. Just a little luck, good energy and a positive mindset, or someone having a slight off day. Been picking up a lot of good in play bets. 
My feeling is that clay is probably the most accurate surface to predict on. Grass is the trickiest, and then it is not easy to differentiate between indoor and outdoor hard court.
 

Been an interesting year on the ATP as players like Philip Kolschrieber, Kevin Anderson, Lopez, Sam Querry, Fognini fade away.
Their places open up new spots for the likes of Rune, Cerundolo (F), Baez, Cressy, Molcan, Lehecka, Halys , Hueslar etc . It's nice to see some new and very talented players break through.
For me Fognini is on the downslope out of the top 100. Still may take another year or so, but it gets harder as the ranking fades and you meet better players, earlier in tournaments. A matchup against Khachanov is just tough. Khachanov ranked at 26 and Fognini at 61, with Khachanov having almost double Fognini's points.
And the stats don't lie. Fognini has lost 6 of his last 8 clay court matches. He got into main draw of Swedish open as lucky loser, and lost to Baez in straights. His two wins were against Popyrin (102) and Thiem (162).  A relatively comfortable win for Khachanov here.
 
I think the Rublev match against Franscisco Cerundolo is going to be excellent. No doubt the match of the round. A very similar matchup of styles, with Cerundolo coming into it, full of confidence after last weeks tournament win. It was no fluke for him last week. He has a rock solid, terrific backhand, and I think Rublev has all kinds of problems with him today. I would be backing Cerundolo to cover the games spread of +3.5 (odds 1.72) and maybe a small bet on him to win the match.
 
Dominic Thiem v Frederico Delbonis. Quite impressed with Theim who is still on the comback trail. He had two very good wins (Bautista Agut, Ruusuvouri) at the Nordic open before losing to Baez in the quarters.  All three matches were 3 setters, which would have been an excellent test for his recovering injury. My software is undecided on this game, but I think Thiem wins here. Happy to take the straight win.
 
I think there is some value in going for a couple of low priced favorites. I think the Ruud v Lehecka match (1.2) and the Berrettini v Gasquet (1.25)  can only end one way. Will take Ruud and Berrittini  as a double which will give 5 to 10, onto Putintseva to beat Parry (WTA Palermo). Putintseva too good on clay and should be comfortable there. Parry did beat Krejcikova at the French but Babora was injured, so I am discounting that win. She has no clay court form at all. I think @CzechPunter is on a sticky wicket here :).
As a treble this comes out at even money

Been an interesting year on the ATP as players like Philip Kolschrieber, Kevin Anderson, Lopez, Sam Querry, Fognini fade away.
Their places open up new spots for the likes of Rune, Cerundolo (F), Baez, Cressy, Molcan, Lehecka, Halys , Hueslar etc . It's nice to see some new and very talented players break through.
For me Fognini is on the downslope out of the top 100. Still may take another year or so, but it gets harder as the ranking fades and you meet better players, earlier in tournaments. A matchup against Khachanov is just tough. Khachanov ranked at 26 and Fognini at 61, with Khachanov having almost double Fognini's points.
And the stats don't lie. Fognini has lost 6 of his last 8 clay court matches. He got into main draw of Swedish open as lucky loser, and lost to Baez in straights. His two wins were against Popyrin (102) and Thiem (162).  A relatively comfortable win for Khachanov here.
 
I think the Rublev match against Franscisco Cerundolo is going to be excellent. No doubt the match of the round. A very similar matchup of styles, with Cerundolo coming into it, full of confidence after last weeks tournament win. It was no fluke for him last week. He has a rock solid, terrific backhand, and I think Rublev has all kinds of problems with him today. I would be backing Cerundolo to cover the games spread of +3.5 (odds 1.72) and maybe a small bet on him to win the match.
 
Dominic Thiem v Frederico Delbonis. Quite impressed with Theim who is still on the comback trail. He had two very good wins (Bautista Agut, Ruusuvouri) at the Nordic open before losing to Baez in the quarters.  All three matches were 3 setters, which would have been an excellent test for his recovering injury. My software is undecided on this game, but I think Thiem wins here. Happy to take the straight win.
 
I think there is some value in going for a couple of low priced favorites. I think the Ruud v Lehecka match (1.2) and the Berrettini v Gasquet (1.25)  can only end one way. Will take Ruud and Berrittini  as a double which will give 5 to 10, onto Putintseva to beat Parry (WTA Palermo). Putintseva too good on clay and should be comfortable there. Parry did beat Krejcikova at the French but Babora was injured, so I am discounting that win. She has no clay court form at all. I think @CzechPunter is on a sticky wicket here :).
As a treble this comes out at even money

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.
Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.
I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 
Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

I do like a couple of upsets today. Both involve Spanish players.
Bautista Agut not playing particularly well at the moment, and has hardly played on grass. Up against a decent player in Jaun Pablo Varillas. This could be pretty close, as I don't think Agut is 100% fit.
I think Carreno Busta loses to ALex Molcan. Busta not playing great, against an up and coming 24 year old, who has good clay court form. 
Two low priced favorites I do like today are Begu and Bondar both to win. I'll take them as a double,

So finally back from the USA.
Quite strange to watch Wimbledon and the French Open from there, with the time difference. 
For me , Lajovic should be well beaten by Musetti in Hamburg. Musetti just too good on clay, while Lajovic has lost 10 of his last 12 clay court matches.  Will take it onto two low priced favorites.  Molcan to beat Topo and Krecikova to beat Lamens.  The 3 legged parlay should give about 12 to 10 which is a decent medium staked bet for me.
 
In play I do like Peterson who is a set and a break up and is 1.7 to 10.

Just looking at the ATP hamburg. Kovalik was a 16 to 100 favorite and seems to be finding his feet at the backend of the 2nd set against a wildcard, Hans Rehberg. Now at 1.36 I think he is a decent bet, even though if he wins the 2nd set (serves out now) he won't be serving 1st in the 3rd, but he should have too much experience.

Just looking at the ATP hamburg. Kovalik was a 16 to 100 favorite and seems to be finding his feet at the backend of the 2nd set against a wildcard, Hans Rehberg. Now at 1.36 I think he is a decent bet, even though if he wins the 2nd set (serves out now) he won't be serving 1st in the 3rd, but he should have too much experience.