neilovan

I think Norrie matches up very well with Jordan Thompson.
Thompson not huge power, and probably gets outplayed by somebody better at the finesse game.
Have not been impressed with Bianca Andreescu. I watched her on clay, and shemoved really badly. Grass will make this lack of moment even more telling. For me she loses to a sneaky good player in Vondrousova. I think the left handed serve gives Andreescu problems all match.
Two longer shots that I like
Avanesyan to beat Blinkova. Avanesyan came back from the dead to beat Kasatkina yesterday. She was buried in the final set, and I couldn't believe it when I saw she won 7-6. Already, she has wins over very good players, and she is just starting out. Someone to keep an eye on.
Zhu to beat Linette (really nothing between them).
Will take the 2 longer shots as two separate bets.

I think Norrie matches up very well with Jordan Thompson.
Thompson not huge power, and probably gets outplayed by somebody better at the finesse game.
Have not been impressed with Bianca Andreescu. I watched her on clay, and shemoved really badly. Grass will make this lack of moment even more telling. For me she loses to a sneaky good player in Vondrousova. I think the left handed serve gives Andreescu problems all match.
Two longer shots that I like
Avanesyan to beat Blinkova. Avanesyan came back from the dead to beat Kasatkina yesterday. She was buried in the final set, and I couldn't believe it when I saw she won 7-6. Already, she has wins over very good players, and she is just starting out. Someone to keep an eye on.
Zhu to beat Linette (really nothing between them).
Will take the 2 longer shots as two separate bets.

Looking at the grass court season.
It is quite difficult to plonk the money down on someone who has not played a match on it this season.
 
Jarry v Moutet I have to go with the underdog here Moutet. He already played at Stuttgart.  Jarry inactive after French Open.
In the Berlin Open two players that I have really been unimpressed with meet. Pliskova v Kvitova. It maybe both players best surface, but they are so hit and miss it is crazy. One way of playing and if it doesn't work, well, err see you in a weeks time. My feeling is that this will be a blowout, one way or the other. Both look unfit, and disinterested, and I think it goes one way. For me the bet is under 22.5 games .

Sakkari was useless. Even had a chance at 5-4 down 2nd set. 0-30 she then played 2 atrocious points. Missed a mid-court forehand long (by a meter) at 15-30 which should have given her 2 break points.

Sakkari was useless. Even had a chance at 5-4 down 2nd set. 0-30 she then played 2 atrocious points. Missed a mid-court forehand long (by a meter) at 15-30 which should have given her 2 break points.

I agree with your analysis of Djoko, but he is very sneaky on the serve. He is bouncing the ball 10+ times on each serve, and this slows the tempo of the game down. Not by a huge amount but cumulatively. It's like having a line-out in rugby, where the team throwing the ball in is just slow to form up and do it. It controls the tempo. 
As for the potential injury Djoko knows how to bend the rules in his favor. He does this all the time. He is certainly not the greatest 'sport' on the court, and it's one of multiple reasons that I can't stand him.
Check out stuff from his early career  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-open-djokovic-idUSTRE50Q3VY20090127
 
 
 

I agree with your analysis of Djoko, but he is very sneaky on the serve. He is bouncing the ball 10+ times on each serve, and this slows the tempo of the game down. Not by a huge amount but cumulatively. It's like having a line-out in rugby, where the team throwing the ball in is just slow to form up and do it. It controls the tempo. 
As for the potential injury Djoko knows how to bend the rules in his favor. He does this all the time. He is certainly not the greatest 'sport' on the court, and it's one of multiple reasons that I can't stand him.
Check out stuff from his early career  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-open-djokovic-idUSTRE50Q3VY20090127
 
 
 

I agree with your analysis of Djoko, but he is very sneaky on the serve. He is bouncing the ball 10+ times on each serve, and this slows the tempo of the game down. Not by a huge amount but cumulatively. It's like having a line-out in rugby, where the team throwing the ball in is just slow to form up and do it. It controls the tempo. 
As for the potential injury Djoko knows how to bend the rules in his favor. He does this all the time. He is certainly not the greatest 'sport' on the court, and it's one of multiple reasons that I can't stand him.
Check out stuff from his early career  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-open-djokovic-idUSTRE50Q3VY20090127
 
 
 

Yesterday was just a strange day. Would have been better for everyone if Alcaraz just quit in the 3rd set. Watched the 2nd match and the Australian commentator (Mark Woodford) was just so clueless. He wanted Zverev to be more proactive and get to the net.  The simple truth is that Zeverev can't do it. And it boils down to one thing....
He has a very poor transition game. It is the part of the game where a player is trying to get off the baseline and get to the net. The mid-court game.
               - Approach shots off the short/er ball (technique and decision making)
               - Half court low volleys
               - Pick up shots when approaching the net
               - Confidence volleying the ball
Zverev is poor at all of these things (for a professional player).  His big problem is that because he is so tall, his center of gravity is higher ... makes his hitting platform and balance more unstable. A shorter (5 11' to 6 '1) player is more compact.
There is also a big distance to cover (from his head to a low ball at his ankles).  Ultimately he is a baseline grinder, and if the serve comes back, better players just out-grind him. 
For me I don't think much of Ruud's game. I am sure he is a nice person but he is the vanilla grinder for me. Repeat of last year, just a different opponent. His game is too similar (from the baseline) to Djokovic, and he has no chance to win.
I don't really know why, but I don't like Swiatek. Does not have one endearing quality for me (maybe I am wrong, won't be the last). Hopefully Muchova can win, but I am not putting money on it. Maybe it has been 1 gut punch too many this tournament.
 

Every day delivers 1 kick in the stomach. Alcaraz was in charge when he started cramping. Was back to a 4.4 to 10 favorite. I I managed to bail out of most of my bets, but still lost a little. Cannot catch a break in this tournament.
One thing I have found when betting is this. Say you are going to bet 10 units on a match. Take the bet as 4 x 2.5 units. If you wish to cash out, you have more flexibility. You don't have to cash out the whole 10 units. You could leave 1 of the 4 (2.5) units in play, take the hit and see what happens. I find it gives you more scope for movement in a tough situation.

Every day delivers 1 kick in the stomach. Alcaraz was in charge when he started cramping. Was back to a 4.4 to 10 favorite. I I managed to bail out of most of my bets, but still lost a little. Cannot catch a break in this tournament.
One thing I have found when betting is this. Say you are going to bet 10 units on a match. Take the bet as 4 x 2.5 units. If you wish to cash out, you have more flexibility. You don't have to cash out the whole 10 units. You could leave 1 of the 4 (2.5) units in play, take the hit and see what happens. I find it gives you more scope for movement in a tough situation.

Every day delivers 1 kick in the stomach. Alcaraz was in charge when he started cramping. Was back to a 4.4 to 10 favorite. I I managed to bail out of most of my bets, but still lost a little. Cannot catch a break in this tournament.
One thing I have found when betting is this. Say you are going to bet 10 units on a match. Take the bet as 4 x 2.5 units. If you wish to cash out, you have more flexibility. You don't have to cash out the whole 10 units. You could leave 1 of the 4 (2.5) units in play, take the hit and see what happens. I find it gives you more scope for movement in a tough situation.

Can actually add one more to this. Tiafoe losing the match in the 4th set breaker against Khachanov at the Aussie open, after being 6-1 up. At 6-1 he smiled and started celebrating 😬🙄. That one takes the cake (considering it was his birthday).
Sabalenka got everything she deserved her. Running around like a headless 🐔. Probably won't sleep for 4 nights 😵
Can anyone tell me why the tennis commentary is so insufferable. Not sure what feed we get in Southern Africa, but there is a commentator with the surname 'Powers' who is an absolute joke. Awful. He's a score repeater. Just hideous. Who is this  🤡? The second one is Sophie Amaich who is also hopeless, especially in men's matches.

If Jabeur was a chocker, I am not even sure how to start with Sabalenka.
I had 3 of these bombs in a week.
Jarry 1-4 up second set loses the set. 2-4 3rd set loses the set.
Jabeur a set up, 5-5 0-40 with 3 break points. Essentailly 3 match points because at that stage she has lost 3 points on her own serve in the 2nd set.  Loses 5 points in a row and turns into a space cadet.
Sabalenka 5-2 up and wiping the floor with Muchova. Loses 5 straight games and goes to pieces.
 
Players just snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Hard to overcome this nonsense.

Again, it's easier to see it, and then say 'She's choker' . At 1 set up and 5-5 love 40 you think she has it won.

The exhaustion is more from the aggravation of blowing a match she should win. But next time you are aware of someone who chokes, please tell me before the match. At least I could save some money 😃

LOl, I guess it's easy to figure it out after you know the result

Was very impressed with Alcaraz yesterday. And also with Tsitsipas. Very difficult for a professional sportsman to take such a beating, especially in such an individual sport. There is no hiding behind your teammates. He fought as hard as he could, and his head never went down. Just ran into an awesome youngster who is playing incredible tennis. He lost with a lot of class, and gained my respect.
Alcaraz v Djoko is an interesting one. Djoko not great yesterday, with strange lapses in his game. He can still be brilliant, but I don't think he can sustain the level needed to beat Alcaraz over a long journey. Age catches up with everyone. Yet his tie break record this French is amazing .
Played 5, won 5 and he has been a machine:  (Kovacevic 7-1,  Fucsovics 7-2 in a set that lasted 90 minutes, Davodich-Fokina X2 winning 7-4 and 7-5 and a slaughter of Khachanov yesterday 7-0). So he the ability to turn it on when required.  Probably 1st set is more important for Djoko than it is for Alcaraz, but Alcaraz just looks to have too much. He just flattened the 5th best player in the world!
My feeling is that Zverev could run into an uppercut today. Don't be fooled, Etcheverry can play. He has faced 3 seeded players (Coric, De Minuar and Nishioka) and sent them all packing in straight sets. He is not at this stage by fluke or accident.  You can also see his pedigree from the Bordeaux challenger where he beat Ivashka, Ramos Vinolas and Struff without dropping a set.
Not sure he can win, but is definitely capable of a set. So for me over 36.5 games here.
I know this is the FO thread but will probably add Evans and Kudla (Surbiton:grass thanks 4-leaf) into a treble (>36.5)  whihc gives around 2.75 to 1.
I was watching episode 4 of Break point last night (Netflix). Was really about Jabeur and Badosa, with some insights from Sharapova and Mouratoglou.
Very interesting. Badosa opening up on her mental issues and seeing such a tight unit in Jabeurs corner.
Tennis is just such a beautiful game attached to a double edged sword! 

Was very impressed with Alcaraz yesterday. And also with Tsitsipas. Very difficult for a professional sportsman to take such a beating, especially in such an individual sport. There is no hiding behind your teammates. He fought as hard as he could, and his head never went down. Just ran into an awesome youngster who is playing incredible tennis. He lost with a lot of class, and gained my respect.
Alcaraz v Djoko is an interesting one. Djoko not great yesterday, with strange lapses in his game. He can still be brilliant, but I don't think he can sustain the level needed to beat Alcaraz over a long journey. Age catches up with everyone. Yet his tie break record this French is amazing .
Played 5, won 5 and he has been a machine:  (Kovacevic 7-1,  Fucsovics 7-2 in a set that lasted 90 minutes, Davodich-Fokina X2 winning 7-4 and 7-5 and a slaughter of Khachanov yesterday 7-0). So he the ability to turn it on when required.  Probably 1st set is more important for Djoko than it is for Alcaraz, but Alcaraz just looks to have too much. He just flattened the 5th best player in the world!
My feeling is that Zverev could run into an uppercut today. Don't be fooled, Etcheverry can play. He has faced 3 seeded players (Coric, De Minuar and Nishioka) and sent them all packing in straight sets. He is not at this stage by fluke or accident.  You can also see his pedigree from the Bordeaux challenger where he beat Ivashka, Ramos Vinolas and Struff without dropping a set.
Not sure he can win, but is definitely capable of a set. So for me over 36.5 games here.
I know this is the FO thread but will probably add Evans and Kudla (Surbiton:grass thanks 4-leaf) into a treble (>36.5)  whihc gives around 2.75 to 1.
I was watching episode 4 of Break point last night (Netflix). Was really about Jabeur and Badosa, with some insights from Sharapova and Mouratoglou.
Very interesting. Badosa opening up on her mental issues and seeing such a tight unit in Jabeurs corner.
Tennis is just such a beautiful game attached to a double edged sword! 

Was very impressed with Alcaraz yesterday. And also with Tsitsipas. Very difficult for a professional sportsman to take such a beating, especially in such an individual sport. There is no hiding behind your teammates. He fought as hard as he could, and his head never went down. Just ran into an awesome youngster who is playing incredible tennis. He lost with a lot of class, and gained my respect.
Alcaraz v Djoko is an interesting one. Djoko not great yesterday, with strange lapses in his game. He can still be brilliant, but I don't think he can sustain the level needed to beat Alcaraz over a long journey. Age catches up with everyone. Yet his tie break record this French is amazing .
Played 5, won 5 and he has been a machine:  (Kovacevic 7-1,  Fucsovics 7-2 in a set that lasted 90 minutes, Davodich-Fokina X2 winning 7-4 and 7-5 and a slaughter of Khachanov yesterday 7-0). So he the ability to turn it on when required.  Probably 1st set is more important for Djoko than it is for Alcaraz, but Alcaraz just looks to have too much. He just flattened the 5th best player in the world!
My feeling is that Zverev could run into an uppercut today. Don't be fooled, Etcheverry can play. He has faced 3 seeded players (Coric, De Minuar and Nishioka) and sent them all packing in straight sets. He is not at this stage by fluke or accident.  You can also see his pedigree from the Bordeaux challenger where he beat Ivashka, Ramos Vinolas and Struff without dropping a set.
Not sure he can win, but is definitely capable of a set. So for me over 36.5 games here.
I know this is the FO thread but will probably add Evans and Kudla (Surbiton:grass thanks 4-leaf) into a treble (>36.5)  whihc gives around 2.75 to 1.
I was watching episode 4 of Break point last night (Netflix). Was really about Jabeur and Badosa, with some insights from Sharapova and Mouratoglou.
Very interesting. Badosa opening up on her mental issues and seeing such a tight unit in Jabeurs corner.
Tennis is just such a beautiful game attached to a double edged sword! 

Not too impressed with Rune. He wins the 3rd set after a clear double bounce that the umpire misses. It's so obvious that the ball bounced twice. For me it is just shocking/awful sportsmanship, that freaked Cerundolo out and cost him the set. So poor.
A am pretty confident that Alcaraz just wipes Tsitsipas out. Beaten him the last 3 times they played and he is getting better and better. Last year he was so raw, with rough edges and weaknesses in his game ... and he was brilliant. This year he is so much better. Last meeting was 6-3 6-4 in Barcelona.
Tsistipas has had a very easy run so far, playing Carballes, Schwartzman and Ofner. Maybe a close 1st set but 1 way after that for me. That 1 handed backhand is such a handicap. If he could go back and redesign his game he would chuck it out immediately. Against the high kicking ball on clay it is average at best.
I will combine this bet with Jabeur to beat Haddad Mia. Not sure that Haddad Mia will have the legs left after a marathon match against Sorribes Tormo. 3.5 hours  is crazy long for a woman's match and my feeling is that she could be badly handicapped here.
Been very impressed with Jabeur this year. She has been excellent. Shot making terrific, mental strength, and a very sneaky clay court game.
 
The double gives 6 to 10 and I will take it for a big bet.

Not too impressed with Rune. He wins the 3rd set after a clear double bounce that the umpire misses. It's so obvious that the ball bounced twice. For me it is just shocking/awful sportsmanship, that freaked Cerundolo out and cost him the set. So poor.
A am pretty confident that Alcaraz just wipes Tsitsipas out. Beaten him the last 3 times they played and he is getting better and better. Last year he was so raw, with rough edges and weaknesses in his game ... and he was brilliant. This year he is so much better. Last meeting was 6-3 6-4 in Barcelona.
Tsistipas has had a very easy run so far, playing Carballes, Schwartzman and Ofner. Maybe a close 1st set but 1 way after that for me. That 1 handed backhand is such a handicap. If he could go back and redesign his game he would chuck it out immediately. Against the high kicking ball on clay it is average at best.
I will combine this bet with Jabeur to beat Haddad Mia. Not sure that Haddad Mia will have the legs left after a marathon match against Sorribes Tormo. 3.5 hours  is crazy long for a woman's match and my feeling is that she could be badly handicapped here.
Been very impressed with Jabeur this year. She has been excellent. Shot making terrific, mental strength, and a very sneaky clay court game.
 
The double gives 6 to 10 and I will take it for a big bet.

Two matches that really impressed me yesterday were Cerundolo v Fritz and Jabeur v Danoliovic. Quality of all players was excellent, and both were terrific matches. The Jabeur match surprised me. Did not know that Danilovic was so good. Best woman's match of the tournament for me. Ball striking was very good. So few unforced errors and exceptionally good shot making under big pressure. Jabeur showed formidable mental fortitude.
Going back to my two 'outsiders'. Cerundolo and Jarry. Both have been unbelievable. They are just so good, and they understand the way to play on clay.  I'm not so impressed with Rune, and think Cerundolo has a fair chance to win there. He has a forehand cannon, with a crazy top spin whip, very similar in ball flight/shape to Nadal (obviously right v left hander but the strike point and spin is similar). It is sneaky good. For me Rune drifts. He can be very good, and then drift off. Hopefully Cerundolo can take advantage of this.
I have more confidence in Jarry beating Ruud. For me Ruud is the poor man's Thomas Berdych. Workmanlike, but kind of dull. You don't see the spectacular from him ... in my eye's he is just a grinder. Where can his game improve, or has it already maxed out?
Jarry beat him recently (in Geneva) and I think he repeats the dose here.

Two matches that really impressed me yesterday were Cerundolo v Fritz and Jabeur v Danoliovic. Quality of all players was excellent, and both were terrific matches. The Jabeur match surprised me. Did not know that Danilovic was so good. Best woman's match of the tournament for me. Ball striking was very good. So few unforced errors and exceptionally good shot making under big pressure. Jabeur showed formidable mental fortitude.
Going back to my two 'outsiders'. Cerundolo and Jarry. Both have been unbelievable. They are just so good, and they understand the way to play on clay.  I'm not so impressed with Rune, and think Cerundolo has a fair chance to win there. He has a forehand cannon, with a crazy top spin whip, very similar in ball flight/shape to Nadal (obviously right v left hander but the strike point and spin is similar). It is sneaky good. For me Rune drifts. He can be very good, and then drift off. Hopefully Cerundolo can take advantage of this.
I have more confidence in Jarry beating Ruud. For me Ruud is the poor man's Thomas Berdych. Workmanlike, but kind of dull. You don't see the spectacular from him ... in my eye's he is just a grinder. Where can his game improve, or has it already maxed out?
Jarry beat him recently (in Geneva) and I think he repeats the dose here.

Two matches that really impressed me yesterday were Cerundolo v Fritz and Jabeur v Danoliovic. Quality of all players was excellent, and both were terrific matches. The Jabeur match surprised me. Did not know that Danilovic was so good. Best woman's match of the tournament for me. Ball striking was very good. So few unforced errors and exceptionally good shot making under big pressure. Jabeur showed formidable mental fortitude.
Going back to my two 'outsiders'. Cerundolo and Jarry. Both have been unbelievable. They are just so good, and they understand the way to play on clay.  I'm not so impressed with Rune, and think Cerundolo has a fair chance to win there. He has a forehand cannon, with a crazy top spin whip, very similar in ball flight/shape to Nadal (obviously right v left hander but the strike point and spin is similar). It is sneaky good. For me Rune drifts. He can be very good, and then drift off. Hopefully Cerundolo can take advantage of this.
I have more confidence in Jarry beating Ruud. For me Ruud is the poor man's Thomas Berdych. Workmanlike, but kind of dull. You don't see the spectacular from him ... in my eye's he is just a grinder. Where can his game improve, or has it already maxed out?
Jarry beat him recently (in Geneva) and I think he repeats the dose here.