tomcody

Saturday yet again showed the fine margins involved in football betting. Gloucester, Barrow and Halifax winning would have been OK, but for the two biggest bets to score winners so late on turned it into a fantastic day. I think it was a deserved change of luck after not having a great deal go right during September. There are a few games on Tuesday night and I like 4 bets at Step 3.
Brightlingsea Regent v Enfield Town
The home side are now without a manger after they blew a 2 goal lead against Lewes on Saturday, losing 3-2. They have now lost 3 on the bounce and they have only won 2 of their 9 league games so far. One of those came against bottom side Corinthian-Casuals although they did manage to be the only team to beat title favs Hornchurch so far this season. Hopefully one of my tips for the title Enfield can give them a 4th defeat on the trot. They are currently in 4th place and the only game they have lost in the league was a horror show against 4th placed Horsham. They have been seeing off the teams lower down in the table and should have too much for their hosts and are 36/25 with Marathon.
Corinthian-Casuals v Horsham
Casuals are really struggling in the league this season having failed to win a game and they featured in a dire game on Saturday against Pitters Bar which ended 0-0. It is amazing they managed to beat Chelmsford in the FA Cup given how badly they have done in the league, but that also means they may not have their full focus on this game given they have their next FA Cup game on Saturday against Kings Langely. For me at this stage of the season that will surely have more significance than this league game. Horsham's only league defeat this season came in a 1-0 loss against Folkestone who are top and undefeated. They have won 4 of their 5 away games and they are out of the Cup so don't have that to worry about. Granted they should have beaten Cheshunt easier on Saturday as they ended up with 9 men and the goal was an own goal, but I think Horsham should really be a shade of odds on so Marathon's 139/100 looks a cracking price.
Merstham v Worthing
Worthing have only played 7 league games so far this season, but they have only lost twice to the current top 2 in the division so the rest of their form looks decent. It does include a crazy 5-5 draw as well. 13 points from 7 games is a decent enough return. Merstham don't look anything special this season and 2 of their 3 wins so far have come against the bottom 2 sides and they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Marathon's 51/25 looks too big about an away win to me.
Scarborough v Basford United
The slight concern here is that Scarborough have drawn all 4 of their home games this term which include bottom side Buxton and top side South Shields. Overall though they have only won once in the league and are currently in 17th place so I am happy enough with the price about Basford being the first team to pick up 3 points at Scarborough this season. Basford are in 4th and have only lost 3 of their 9 league games and they have been against top of the table South Shields, 3rd placed Matlock and 6th placed Grantham. Also key is their game on Saturday was called off and that could well prove crucial given Scarborough had a tough game against Warrington. I think Marathon's 46/25 is worth taking about an away win.
Enfield Town 2pts @ 36/25 with Marathon
Horsham 3pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
Worthing 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon
Basford United 1pt @ 46/25 with Marathon

Tuesday night summed up the last 2/3 weeks really as things didn't quite go our way. Barnet had a stinker and Halifax should have won only to lose to a late goal in the end. Hopefully I can end the month on a high though as I have 7 bets including some strong selections among them.
Previews to follow
Barrow v Maidenhead 
I know Maidenhead have one of the best away records in the league, but I think they have been flattered by their good start and they are beginning to find their natural place in the table. Their last 2 away games have seen a draw at Wrexham and a loss at Barnet and that trend is also in their overall form. They have now not won in 5 games and go to a side in Barrow who are flying at the moment. After beating Yeovil in a live game last month they then failed to win in their next 4 games picking up just a point, but they were playing well and only losing games by the odd goal. They have now won their last 4 and they have scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 games. With Maidenhead only keeping 1 clean sheet in their last 9 games then Barrow will surely be adding to their goals total here. They look a big price at 6/4 to win this.
Dover v Halifax
As mentioned above Halifax should have won on Tuesday night, but in the end a late Harrogate goal meant they didn't even end up with a point. They look a big price though to beat a Dover side who have only managed to pick up 5 points from their 6 home games so far this season. That includes draws against struggling Ebbsfleet and Chorley so Halifax should pose a much stiffer test. It is annoying that the only time I have tipped Dover away from home this season was the one time they haven't won on their travels this season, but it is clear that Dover at home and Dover away from home are two very different sides. Halfiax have looked strong away from home and I just can't see how they can be nearly 3/1 to win this as I would have them around the 7/4 mark myself. This game is the live BT Sport one on Saturday teatime.
Billericay v Dorking
Granted it was very poor from Dorking to lose to a side two leagues below them in the FA Cup last Saturday especially given Tooting ended up with 10 men, but this game looks a decent chance to bounce straight back. They have won their last 3 league games and a 3-1 win over Maidstone was a top effort. I suspect everyone reading this knows what has happened at Billericay so I won't go back over it, but they could only manage 5 subs (allowed 7) in their FA Cup game and they only scraped a 1-0 win. One of those subs was new manager Jamie O'Hara who was meant to have retired. More players have left the club this week and although as I type the likes of Jake Robinson are still there, they have been weakened. Dorking are above Billericay in the table as well and we are dealing with a different Billericay from the side who had won 4 of their 5 home league games so far. At over 3/1 the away side seem a sporting play in the circumstances.
Eastbourne v Chelmsford
Two sides who are under performing so far this season especially the away team whose fans aren't happy with the way things have gone. Their away form has been especially bad as they have only picked up 1 point so far in 5 away games The also lost at Corinthian-Casuals in the FA Cup last weekend and they haven't even managed to win a game in the league below. Including that FA Cup game they have conceded twice 3 times and let in 4 twice. Given all that I just can't understand how bookies can make Chelmsford favs to win this. I accept Eastbourne aren't doing great themselves, but they have only lost one of their last 5 league matches and beat Tonbridge in the FA Cup last weekend. They should be favs to win this so 15/8 is well worth taking.
Gloucester City v Guiseley
I am backing my own team again here as I just don't see how they can be 5/2 to win this. Having seen them in the flesh against Kings Lynn two weeks ago I was impressed with what I saw and they were within seconds of being the first team to win at Kings Lynn for a long time. Granted Kings Lynn deserved the point, but Gloucester held their own against a team who have started the season very strongly and look at this stage to be certain to finish in the play-offs. Beating Guiseley won't be easy as they have done well themselves this season, but their only away wins so far have come against two of the worst sides in the league Bradford Park Avenue and Blyth. That points to Gloucester having a decent chance and I would make them a point shorter to win.
Spennymoor v Kidderminster
My strongest bet of the season so far. I know Kiddie have only lost once away this season in the league, but they have had a very kind fixture list so far. They have beaten Bradford, Curzon and Kettering and drew to Blyth. They are currently the bottom 4 clubs in the division. Now Spennymoor are 5th from bottom, but they have clearly been suffering from a play-off final defeat hangover (like Fylde in the league above) and they are much better than a bottom 5 side for me. They have only lost one of their last 6 league games so the signs are there that they will be rising up the table. Kidderminster look a long way from being a side capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season and I would put a lot of money on Spennymoor finishing above them come the end of April. Losing 3-0 at Stafford in the FA Cup replay on Tuesday was another shocker and of course they have had to play an extra game compared to the home side. I am really strong on the home side here and they should be odds on shots in my view.
Buxton v South Shields
I was very surprised to see South Shields at odds against to win this. The title favourites have only lost won game this season and have won all bar one of the others. Compare this to Buxton who have yet to win and have picked up just 3 points in their first 8 games. Odds against looks a steal to be honest and it will be a surprise if this isn't an away win.
Barrow 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Halifax 1pt @149/50 with Marathon
Dorking 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
Eastbourne 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon
Gloucester 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Spennymoor 4pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
South Shields 3pts @ 59/50 with Marathon

Thankfully for the 2nd time this season my own team won at a decent price to stop it from being a blank matchday and covered most of the losses. I am off to Kings Lynn to watch Gloucester on Saturday and based on the stats I should be seeing a lot of goals, but suspect there might be more for the home side than the away side. I won't be having a bet though, but their are 5 games that catch my eye.
Previews to follow
Eastleigh v Bromley
Bromley remain the only undefeated side in the National League and I am surprised that they are over 2/1 to beat an Eastleigh side who look fairly average so far this season. Granted they have only lost once at home, but their home fixture list hasn't been overly tough so far and Bromley are certainly the better side in my view. I would make them favs myself so the 21/10 makes lots of appeal.
Darlington v York
I opposed Darlington last week and more than happy to do so again this week especially against the best team in the division. Darlington have only won 3 games all season and only 1 of their last 5 games which was against Blyth which as I mentioned last week hardly says much given how bad they are. Like Bromley, York are still unbeaten as well and hopefully both will be picking up 3 points on Saturday.
Kettering v Alfreton
Alfreton are finally having a good season after some disappointing ones and they have won 5 of their last 6 games with the only defeat a 3-2 loss to table toppers Kings Lynn. Given Kettering have lost 7 of their 10 games it is quite impressive that the only 2 times I have opposed them is in 2 of their 3 games where they haven't won. They have only won once on the opening day of the season and they have backed up my view pre-season that they would be relegation candidates. I haven't managed to make it pay so far, but hopefully it will be 3rd time lucky and Alfreton look the best bet of the weekend given how prolific they are in front of goal and how poor Kettering look at the back
Kidderminster v Altrincham
Altrincham will be disappointed with their season so far with only 3 wins, but they were really impressive last weekend when beating Leamington 5-0 and that could be the turning point of their season. They have yet to win away from home, but they do have 2 points from their 5 games on the road compared to Kidderminster who have only managed to pick up 1 point from their 5 home games so far. Granted they haven't had the kindest fixture list, but they did throw away a 2 goal lead against Gloucester and they do look as if they are in for a tough season. I thought just over 2/1 looked a spot of value about an away win.
Lewes v Potters Bar Town
Lewes have really struggled so far this season losing 4 games on the bounce having drawn their opening fixture. They did win 4-1 in their last league game, but that came against bottom club Leatherhead, who they also faced in the FA Cup last weekend. That first game ended in a draw so they had a replay on Wednesday night which ended up going to penalties. They are missing a few players as well as having played 120 minutes on Wednesday and they are going to find that tough going into this game. Potters Bar have had a solid enough season and as much as they look a mid-table side they look capable of taking advantage of Lewes' tiredness.
Bromley 2pts @ 21/10 with Bet365
York 2pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
Alfreton 2.5pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor
Altrincham 1pt @ 51/25 with Marathon
Potters Bar Town 1pt @ 71/50 with Marathon

A small loss on Tuesday night which would have seen a decent profit if Braintree had held on to their 2-1 lead against 10 men. The FA Cup means we only have the 3 National League's to focus on this weekend and I have 4 bets.
Aldershot v Barrow
This match nearly didn't make the cut, but in the end I do think Aldershot are worthy of a bet on Saturday. They haven't won at home yet, but only just lost to Fylde and Bromley and then have picked up points against Halifax and Sutton. Given the way Halifax are playing that was an especially good point. This looks a reasonable opportunity to pick up 3 points at home for the first time this season as Barrow are struggling this term especially on the road where they have only picked up a point. To be fair they have had some tough away games having gone to Wrexham, Stockport and Woking and they have only lost by 1 goal on each occasion. That nearly put me off Aldershot, but I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides and Aldershot had the Tuesday off which will have helped as well. I would have them around 11/8 so the fact they have drifted to 179/100 with Marathon makes them a bet for me.
Boreham Wood v Dover
I am really keen on Dover here and they look the best bet of the weekend for me. I mentioned on Bank Holiday Monday that Boreham Wood haven't won at home since January and they duly lost to Ebbsfleet albeit they did have 10 men for most of the game. They then went to Chorley and won 3-1 in the live game, but Chorley pretty much gifted them the game so I don't think it said much about them and they then went and lost at Eastleigh on Tuesday night. Dover are having a good season and they have won all 4 away games so far. They drew at home to Ebbsfleet on Tuesday but they should have won and they look potential play-off contenders this season. To me this game has been priced up if the teams are of similar ability, but I would make Dover clear favourites for this and the 17/10 with Bet365 is well worth taking in my view.
Chorley v Stockport
As I mentioned above and on Tuesday night, Chorley look a long way short of this level at the moment and it is hard to see them getting anything out of this game. These two sides battled it out for the National League North title last year and Chorley did beat Stockport late on although they did lose the title to them in the end. This season though the two teams look miles apart. Stockport weren't great in their opening day defeat to Maidenhead, but they have done nothing but improve since and have lost just once since. They have had two good wins against Wrexham and AFC Fylde in their last two matches and they really should be beating Chorley on everything both teams have done this season. Stockport have scored in every game bar the Maidenhead one and given how leaky Chorley's defence is they should surely by adding to their goal tally here. I would make them odds on so the 6/5 with William Hill and Betway is well worth taking.
Gloucester City v Darlington
I have written on here this season about my own teams superb away from in recent seasons especially under their current manager although since they beat Kidderminster they have lost their next 3 away games. I do think they are extenuating circumstances though as all those have been on a Tuesday or Bank Holiday Monday when the players have come on the back of a tough home game. Blowing a 2 goal lead at AFC Telford wasn't great on Tuesday night, but there is cause for thinking they are a big price on Saturday. Firstly their home performances have been strong this season despite the fact they have only won one. They played well with 10 and then 9 men against Hereford, drew with Altrincham, beat Boston 3-0 and then pushed York close last week when leading 2-1 at one stage. On paper this is their easiest game so far at home and Darlington come to Evesham struggling for fit and available players. They have only managed to pick up 1 point away from home so far this season and beating bottom of the table Blyth 2-1 on Wednesday night didn't say a lot. I would make Gloucester favourites for this and I really can't understand why they have drifted out to 2/1 with Bet365.
Alderhshot 1pt @ 179/100 with Marathon
Dover 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
Stockport 2.5pts @ 6/5 with William Hill and Betway
Gloucester City 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365

Superb day on Monday with only 5/6 winners at some decent prices as well. If only Spennymoor could have won we would have been looking at another hefty payout. Just to remind people that I always suggest they do singles, but I always cover the acca and the one below for 0.5pts every match day and the five fold on Monday has pretty much paid for a whole season of those bets. It has been a bit of a rollercoaster though this month so hopefully we can end August on a high on Saturday where I have 7 bets across 5 leagues.
Torquay v Hartlepool
Hartlepool were one of my ante-post bets for the league and I was beginning to think I had got them wrong, but they got a really good win on Monday when beating Wrexham 4-2. Torquay blew a 2 goal lead at Barnet on Monday and that came on the back of beating Aldershot on BT Sport on Saturday. Torquay did well enough and deserved the win, but I didn't think they had to work all that hard for it. I don't think there is a great deal between these two teams at the moment and the win on Monday should have given Hartlepool a nice confidence boost ahead of this. The 100/30 about an away win looks over priced for me.
Yeovil v Notts County
County continue to improve and although they didn't have to do much to beat Chorley on Monday they did score some very impressive goals. I think they can come out on top in this battle between the two relegated sides. I haven't really been taken by Yeovil so far and they lost their last 3 games after results wise a good start. They have only managed to beat Eastleigh and Ebbsfleet so far though and I think at the time they were two of the poorest teams in the division so it doesn't say much. I would have County as clear favourites and they are certainly looking stronger than they were earlier in the month.
Gloucester City v York City
York are already looking like they could be hard to beat in the National League North and they are unbeaten after 7 games. Away from home they are 3/3 and I think they can make it 4/4 at Evesham on Saturday. Gloucester had a good win last Saturday, but those efforts told when being well beaten by Brackley on Monday. As I have written in the past Gloucester's form at Evesham hasn't been great although they can make it hard for teams to break them down and they drew plenty in the final few months of the season as they tried to stay at this level. I think York have more than enough to break them down though and I thought York would be odds on so odds against is well worth taking.
Hyde v Stafford
It has been a good start to the season for Hyde as after losing to Basford on the opening day of the season they have won their other 3 games including beating South Shields last Saturday. That is clearly strong form and they host a Stafford side who have only picked up 1 point from their first 3 games so Hyde look a decent bet to make it 4 wins on the bounce.
Bognor v Carshalton
Take Bognor's 5-0 win over Worthing out and they have had a shocking start to the season and they lost 3-0 to Worthing last Saturday and they had lost their previous game 6-0! Carshalton lost their first two games, but they have won their next 3 games and should be capable of mounting a play-off challenge this season whereas Bognor might just struggle to get involved. It doesn't really make much sense why the away side are 100/30 and the prices should be much closer together.
Hednesford v Needham Market
The home side are looking like they will be title contenders this season and have won 4 of their first 5 games with the only defeat coming against unbeaten Coalville. On Monday they beat title favourites Tamworth and I think they should have too much in hand over a Needham Market side who have only managed to beat bottom side Leiston so far this term.
St Ives v Coalville
Speaking of Coalville they travel to St Ives side who have only managed to pick up one point on the opening day of the season. As mentioned above Coalville are unbeaten so far and they came out on top in an 8 goal thriller against Nuneaton on Saturday. These two teams should be battling it out at opposite ends of the table come April and Coalville look a big price to pick up 3 more points.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
Notts County 2pts @ 6/4 with Marathon and Bet365
York 2.5pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
Hyde 1pt @ 7/5 with BetVictor
Carshalton 1pt @ 100/30 with Marathon
Hednesford 2pts @ 26/25 with Marathon
Coalville 2pts @ 131/100 with Marathon

Saturday was one of those frustrating days which looked like being a really good day at one point and then ended up showing a loss, albeit small, despite only one team losing. I have 6 bets on Monday although I am not going crazy because it is set to be another very hot afternoon coming on the back of a very hot afternoon on Saturday and that is going to be very tough on the players. I think it is going to make what is already a tough turn around even tougher. It is my birthday so hopefully a profit can be made.
Boreham Wood v Ebbsfleet
Two sides with only 1 win between them and I doubt there is a great deal between the two sides which make the away team a bet at 29/10. Boreham Wood have usually been very strong at home since they got promoted, but they haven't won a home game since January and with Ebbsfleet improving (they could have beaten Notts County in the end on Saturday), they look a sporting play here.
Dover v Woking
Have I got Woking massively wrong? Having put them up to be relegated I am amazed they are top of the table after 6 games, but then they had a similar start in 2017 when I put them up to go down and they did end up being relegated so who knows! Beating Solihull 2-0 was a superb effort on the back of beating Fylde 4-1. Dover have had a good start as well, but they have lost 2 of their 3 home games and Woking have looked especially good away from home. They just shouldn't be 5/2 shots to win this game.
Blyth Spartans v Guiseley
Blyth's woeful start to the season continued on Saturday as they drew 0-0 with Bradford Park Avenue who have looked even worse than Blyth have. Guiseley have already scored 14 goals this season and must fancy their chances of adding to that tally here. I think they should be nearer even money than the 141/100 that they are.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
I can't believe how much Spennymoor have struggled so far and one 1 point in 4 games is not a good return for last season's beaten play-off finalists. They will surely turn it around sooner rather than later though and I think it could be on Monday as they face a Curzon side who had a nightmare trip to Kings Lynn on Saturday and then were well beaten. On paper Spennymoor are the better side and they just shouldn't be 9/4 shots.
Braintree v Dorking
Both sides lost on Saturday, but I thought Dorking's loss to Hampton was worse and Braintree seem to be gelling at last. Prior to Braintree's 2-1 defeat to Dartford on Saturday they had beaten St Albans 3-0 and Eastbourne 5-0. Dorking's only point in their last 3 games came in a draw against St Albans and they might not add to that here. Braintree certainly look over priced at 17/10.
Kingstonian v Bishops Stortford
Not been a great start to the season by the home side although they were unbeaten before Hornchurch beat them on Saturday. The main reason for tipping Stortford up though is the fact they didn't have a game on Saturday and given the conditions that could well have a big part to play in this game and for that reason at 29/10 they look a sporting play and have managed to win a game this season unlike their hosts.
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 29/10 with Bet365
Woking 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
Guiseley 1pt  @ 141/100 with Marathon
Spennymoor 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
Braintree 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
Bishops Stortford 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor

Been a disappointing couple of sessions on the back of a couple of good ones which is annoying as well as the fact the last two Nap's have both been beaten after going 3/3 on that front. It's going to be a busy Bank Holiday weekend with games on Saturday and Monday but hopefully it will be a profitable. I have 8 bets on Saturday.
Previews to follow
Chorley v Hartlepool
Chorley got off to a solid start back at this level, but things have really gone wrong in their last two games conceding 10 goals. It seems that the high of promotion has warn off and the reality has set in. It seems they played well enough against Maidenhead, but to do that and still concede 4 goals is not good. Hartlepool being one of the teams I put up ante-post have done OK so far although their only win came at Maidenhead. They played their part in their 3-2 defeat against Bromley last time and I certainly think they are improving after their first two defeats. If Chorley continue in the same vein they have then they are going to get chances to score and although Hartlepool have been a bit too leaky at the back I am not sure Chorley are going to be up too matching them going forward. I would make Hartlepool slight favourites for this so 19/10 is a nice price.
Eastleigh v Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham were a team I struggled to get right last season and after they beat Harrogate last week I just hope it isn't going to be the same this time around. I wasn't exactly complimentary about them last week and it may surprise to see that I am tipping them up this week, but that was a good performance to put 4 past Harrogate especially as they came from 1 down and 2-1 down. Eastleigh are unbeaten in their two home games so far beating Notts County on day 1 and then drawing with Sutton, but I don't think either of those performances showed they were up too much at the moment and they have lost their 3 away games. I thought they would struggle to reach the play-offs like they did last season, but you have to wonder if they might end up being in a relegation scrap based on performances so far. For me Dagenham look stronger at the moment and at 61/25 they look over priced to me.
Ebbsfleet v Notts County
It's probably surprising as well to see I am so strong on Notts County this weekend, but it is clear that performances have improved having beaten Harrogate and drawing with Wrexham on Sunday. With a 6 day gap between games that should give the management team time to work with the players that would have been tricky with the Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday/Sunday schedule they have been faced with prior to this week. They looked a million miles away in the game against Barnet, but it seems they are making good progress now and they face and Ebbsfleet side who come into this having lost all 5 games so far. To be fair to them they were close at Fylde and Solihull to getting at least a point so they are capable, but their two home performances have been really bad so far and as much as I think Gary Hill will sort things out eventually Notts County should have too much for them here.
Harrogate v Stockport
Having put Harrogate up in their last three games and for them to let me down no doubt they will go and win this now I am opposing them, but Stockport are just too big a price for me. Harrogate might end up suffering from 2nd season syndrome and losing their last 3 is not good. Stockport looked clueless on the opening day against Maidenhead, but they have gone unbeaten since and certainly looked to have improved since then. Granted they have had a fairly kind fixture list, but they shouldn't fear playing Harrogate at the moment and at bigger than 5/2 they look a value play.
Yeovil v Maidenhead
I've tried opposing Yeovil a couple of times without success, but then I did do it with Ebbsfleet and Eastleigh so that was perhaps my mistake. They were really bad against Barrow in a dire game last week and that backed up my view that they aren't anything special. Alan Devonshire continues to work miracles at Maidenhead and they have had a cracking start to the season winning 3 and only losing as mentioned above to Hartlepool. For me Maidenhead will be the sort of team that Yeovil will struggle with this season and like Stockport at bigger than 5/2 they look worth a bet.
Chelmsford v Welling
Chelmsford have scored 4 goals in both their home games so far and it looks like they are going to be very strong at home again this season as they were last term. Away from home it hasn't gone so well although they manage to keep Havant out last week. They have already been well backed, but there is just enough in the price for me to want to get involved. I must admit Welling have done better than I thought they would so far, but Chelmsford at home ought to be too strong for them.
Eastbourne v Dulwich Hamlet
I might have got slightly lucky Napping Eastbourne the other week because that win over Tonbridge is their only one so far and I think they are worth opposing against a Dulwich side who are looking strong this season. They have only lost one game so far at a strong Hemel side and they are the only team to have taken points against Wealdstone so far having beaten them. They did well to come back from 2 down against a Concord side who have started the season strongly last week and they have a good chance of getting back to winning ways against a Eastbourne side struggling to win at the moment.
Wimborne v Taunton Town
I opposed Taunton last week and they finally managed to get a win after two very surprising defeats. That 3-2 win over Chesham was a good effort and that should be them up and running now. Wimborne are fair from the strongest side in the division and Taunton should have too much for them.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Notts County 3pts @ 177/100 with Marathon
Stockport 1pt 133/50 with Marathon
Maidenhead 1pt @ 139/50 with Marathon
Chelmsford 2.5pts @ 51/50 with Marathon
Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 9/5 with BetVictor
Taunton 2pts @ 121/100 with Marathon

Also thinking about BTS in Paok Ajax match. From what i saw against Vitesse that shouldnt be problem. Ajax looked pretty bad in defense and showed some weeknesses. Van Den Beek will be in first eleven despite almost surely going to Madrid. 
Paok always have hot pitch at home. Bought some interesting players and i think they can cause problems to Ajax here.

It seems to come around quicker every year, but it is again that time where I try and predict the winners of 7 leagues from the National League at Step 1 to the 4 leagues now sponsored by BetVictor at Step 3. Last season was just under 20pts profit following on from the previous two seasons which were over 20pts. Only one season in the 11 seasons I have done online has seen me make a loss on the ante-post bets. I feel it right to put a disclaimer at the start. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will probably have seen it hasn't exactly been a great summer wise for me after complications with my new-born son and for obvious reasons I haven't felt quite on top of things as I would be in an ideal summer. Therefore I have to thank former member of this forum Shipsupstreets or Paul as he is also known for providing me with his intensive notes so I could get up to speed. I obviously did have some teams in mind, but certainly Step 3 was one I really needed more research on and he has saved me a lot of time. With that out of the way lets move on to the preview itself.
 
National League
Two things to note when it comes to the National League is that favourites have a pretty rotten record and that teams coming down from League 2 really struggle to go back up at the first time of asking. Cheltenham won the title and Bristol Rovers went up via the play-offs, but that is it. Notts County have to defy both those stats although I just don't understand why they are market leaders. They are a team who have had well documented off the field issues and are lucky to not have been wound up, but fortunately for fans new buyers have been found. The club have been unable to sign any players due to a transfer embargo although they have had players playing in friendlies in the hope of signing when things are sorted out. The problem is though how on earth can any wage budget been set so how does Neil Ardley know what he has got to play with so who knows how many he will be able to sign. On the pitch they have done pretty well in pre-season friendlies which did surprise me I must admit, but I stopped using them as a pointer to the season ahead long ago. They look really poor favourites for me and I just can't see them winning the title as I write this. After that it is hard to be confident about how they will go with so many unknowns, but it would be a hell of an achievement for them to win the title and they help make the market.
 
To be fair Notts County aren't favourites with every bookie (9/1 with Betway and BetVictor who have them as 3rd in the betting) with Chesterfield and AFC Fylde heading some bookies lists although both are also as big as 9/1. Starting with Chesterfield and I can certainly see them going much closer to getting back to the Football League than they did last season. You may remember they became the draw specialists under Marten Allen which became an easy way to make money for a good few weeks. They did improve under John Sheridan and they look to have a solid squad ahead of the season. What you have to ask yourself though is they are basically attempting to do what Leyton Orient did last season and are they actually as good as them? In my view they have a lesser manager and not as strong a squad and for that reason they look play-off hopefuls rather than possible title winners.
 
AFC Fylde were one of my bets for the title last season, but they were really frustrating. They hardly lost a game, but they continually drew games away from home that they needed to win if they were going to win the title. Dave Challinor needs to change that this season. What he also needs to change is the reliance on Danny Rowe. They have been very lucky that he hasn't had a mid-long term injury as without his goals they would struggle. They play-off final and FA Trophy Final highlighted that perfectly for me. To be fair to Challinor he has certainly tried to address that issue so it might not be as big an issue as it has been the last two seasons. The other big issue is how play-off final losers always seem to suffer from a hangover. I thought Tranmere would get away with it two seasons ago and it was their slow start which stopped them from winning the title as they were the best team in the league by a mile that season (something highlighted by the fact they went up again last season whereas Macclesfield were nearly relegated). The interesting thing with Fylde though is that winning the FA Trophy might just help them get over that hangover, because they ended the season winning a trophy rather than losing a play-off final. I will be kicking myself a bit if they did win the title, but in what is a wide open league this year I want to be backing teams at double figures and as much as I think they will be in the play-offs at least I think the juice has gone from the price.
 
Having said I want to be backing a team at a double figure price Wrexham just creep into being 10/1 and they are my idea of the champions this season. I don't need to be telling Wrexham fans that they have been in this division for way too long and they really have had a rollercoaster of emotions trying to get out of the league including bumping in Fleetwood when they probably had their best ever season at this level. What they have really lacked in the last two seasons is goals and to a lesser fact having a manager poached from them during the season. Hopefully this season they will score plenty of goals and Bryan Hughes won't be tempted away from the Racecourse Ground. The fact their leading scorer had six last season tells a story, but Hughes has gone all out to rectify that and I really think he has. What they have been very good at is keeping the goals out at the other end of pitch and their defence has basically stayed intact which is very good news. They clearly haven't been far away from title winners the last two seasons and they now look to have the potential to be champions with the squad they have and they are my main bet.
 
Torquay are next in the betting and I just don't get it. I know Paul has them as possible play-off contenders and they might be capable of sneaking into 7th especially as they have a superb manager in Gary Johnson who got a Cheltenham team who weren't the best squad in the league to win the title 3 years ago. Maybe he is the reason why they are so short, but I would be amazed if they won the title. Given my own side have been in the National League South the last two seasons I have watched a lot of it and the standard has been shocking especially last season. Havant and Braintree went up two seasons ago and both came straight back down last season which tells you all you need to know. Now I certainly don't think Torquay will be going down and they were certainly the best team in the division over the last two years. For Johnson to take them from where they were when he took over to winning the league in a canter was impressive stuff, but the fact the league was so bad really helped with that. Johnson hasn't added too much to that squad, but for me they are top half/outside play-off hopefuls and no more than that.
 
Harrogate are next in and they had a surprisingly good first ever season at this level reaching the play-offs. They do actually look stronger than last time around and I do think they will be in and around the play-offs again, but they really faded in the 2nd half of the season and I have always had my doubts about Simon Weaver as a manager which for me will stop them from being possible title winners.
 
We then come to Barnet. I was confident of them having a good season last year with them getting 
John Still in as manager and him then building a really promising squad. Still left at Christmas as things hadn't quite gone to plan and Darren Currie took over. What was especially frustrating was their FA Cup run showed they had serious potential in that squad last season and they were superb against Brentford in one of the best games I have seen in a long time. They also went on a decent run towards the back end of the season again showing what might have been. If Currie can get them to be consistent then they could be in for a very good season and I am tempted to go in again, but ultimately I just wonder if they might need another season before being true title candidates so I am passing at this stage. 
 
Can Solihull go one better than last season? In a word no. Fair play to Tim Flowers as although I certainly thought they shouldn't have been relegations favourites, I didn't think they would be capable of finishing 2nd. When they signed Paul McCallum from Eastleigh I thought it was a real sign of intent, but then nothing else really happened as far as really strong signings went so to me they look weaker than last season. Possible play-off contenders again, but hard to see them making that step up to winning the title.
 
Peter Taylor's Dagenham & Redbridge are next in the betting and they certainly look a more promising prospect than at this stage last season when they had no money and looked real relegation candidates. A takeover meant money could be spent and they did enough to comfortably survive. I had them as a possible team to back at the end of last season given money was to be spent, but it then looks like they haven't actually got that much too spend as I am a bit underwhelmed by the signings. I am also doubtful about Peter Taylor being the right man for the job so I am happy to look elsewhere.
 
Stockport finally got themselves out of the National League last season after getting the better of Chorley in a case of the slow starters (they went out to at least 25/1 for the title having been favs) beating the fast starters. They still aren't fully full time and that is always going to be a hindrance in this league. Top half maybe but hard to see anymore than that. Yeovil are also back at this level for the first time in even longer although of course coming in the other direction. Like Notts County they weren't in great shape, but their takeover happened in mid-June which has helped them. I always like a manager to have non-league experience and Darren Sarll doesn't have that. They look solid enough but I think it will be a year of mid-table obscurity for them.
 
That's every team at 20/1 or shorter mentioned and I have two at bigger prices worth backing. First up is Hartlepool who look a massive price at 33/1. They have suffered badly with picking the wrong manager in their first two seasons at this level, but Craig Hignett looks the right man for the job and he certainly improved them when he took over last term. Based on that and the squad he has I think they should be around half that price and I expect them to have a much better season than their last two. I am also having a small investment in Bromley. One of the smaller teams in the league tend to be surprise promotion candidates and it could well be Bromley this year. They just missed out on the play-offs two years ago when a FA Trophy run got in the way a bit and then they went backwards last season finishing 14 points off the play-offs. I have however been really impressed with their signings over the summer and they look a club on the up having just opened up their brand new stand. They look to be building for life as a possible Football League club and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they were that in a years time. They certainly make more appeal at 25/1 than a few teams shorter than them in the betting.
 
Some people might fancy Dover, but I think Hessenthaler needs another season to completely change them around although they maybe sniffing around the play-offs. McCallum choosing Solihull over Eastleigh spoke volumes for me and I find it hard to see them reaching the play-offs again. Gary Hill did  a wonder job when he took over at Ebbsfleet last season given the off the pitch issues. They won't be getting promotion, but they should go better than their outsider tags. I can also see Boreham Wood having a better season. They really struggled last term after losing the play-off final to Tranmere last May and they look stronger this time around.
 
Bet365 have a handicap market and I think Hartlepool getting 18 points and Bromley getting 15 points are worth a small bet e/w at 18/1.
 
I love getting involved with the relegation market and there looks come cracking value again this year. Aldershot are odds on after being reprieved thanks to Gateshead and they will more than likely be in for another season of struggle, but make no appeal at the price. Alan Devonshire continues to defy the odds at Maidenhead and I wouldn't want to back against him doing the same again this season. I mention above that Boreham Wood should improve and I'm surprised to see Dover so short as well. Chorley could struggle, but I think they are capable of getting the right side of the line. We have the bizarre scenario of Notts County not being listed with Paddy's and Betfair and only 5/2 with BetVictor. In my view they will either go bust or be capable of surviving so I certainly wont be backing them. Another team with issues Ebbsfleet are the same price, but like Maidenhead the manager is more than capable of keeping them up.
 
The two teams I like are Woking and Halifax. As I mention above the National League South was very low on quality last season and the bet on Braintree to come straight back down always looked like being a winner last term. Woking could well do exactly the same as them having been relegated and then winning the play-offs at the first time of asking. Granted they finished 2nd to Braintree's 7th, but I don't think there was a great deal of difference between the teams in the play-offs last season. They didn't really push Torquay close as they were only as close for so long because of Torquay's poor start before Johnson came in as manager. They don't look to have a strong side and I will be shocked if they don't struggle. They should be much shorter than 5/2 to go down. The other team I am backing is Halifax at 2/1. Jamie Fullarton resigned as manager a couple of weeks ago in very mysterious circumstances. That suggests something might not be right at the club and it is hardly ideal for your manager to leave so close to the season starting. With August being such a busy month the new manager Pete Wild who is not only going to have missed out on a pre-season, but is going to have little time in between matches to work on things and get new players in. Granted that will still give them plenty of times to sort things around, but they have a weak squad and things might not be right at the club. Also Pete Wild's knowledge of Non-League football is unlikely to be strong and he is very inexperienced. This is going to be a very tough first full time managerial job
 
Finally I usually leave the top goalscorer market alone as it is always tricky and has seen some surprise winners, but if Danny Rowe stays fit it is almost impossible to not see him in the top 4 at the end of the season. If he was ever going to leave Fylde it would have been over the summer and given he hasn't (they don't exactly need the money) he will be there until April. Fylde will be up there and he will be scoring 20+ goals if he stays fit. Not only are BetVictor top price at 6/1, but they are also going 4 places which looks an e/w steal to me. Bet365's 11/2 first 3 is also more than acceptable.
 
NB Notts County take over confirmed on Friday 26th July.
 
National League South
I am writing this on Thursday evening and it is probably a good thing I am as otherwise I would have had to rewrite the preview as big news came out which has changed my view point on the league a bit. I have been very keen on Havant & Waterlooville all summer. Paul Doswell was a good appointment as manager back in May and it is clear from the signings he has made that the club want to be back in the National League at the first time of asking. Given Torquay and Woking managed that last season it is very easy to see them following suit as their squad looks a cut above all bar one team in the division. Doswell has taking some Sutton players with him and I would say they look a stronger side than they did last season. I still think there is some juice in the price at 9/2.
 
They were going to be one of my biggest ante-post bets and Billericay were just going to be savers, but all that changed when Matt Rhead was announced on Thursday evening. That is a huge signing at this level and although he isn't a prolific scorer, they have Jake Robinson for that, he will help create plenty of goals and he will be able to boss so many defences in this league. He isn't the only good signing either with the likes of Ronnie Henry also joining. Now I obviously have to mention the owner and as he calls himself joint-manager Glenn Tamplin. I really wish he wasn't anywhere near the dugout as I think he is a hindrance there having witnessed it for myself last season. That was in October before the bizarre actions off the pitch. The Non-League Paper ran a story saying they money had run out and they were up for sale and Jake Robinson left amongst others. I never really believed the story though as they still had a good squad although in the end they couldn't recover from a bad spell and even getting Robinson back wasn't enough to see them in the play-offs. I put them up as my strongest bet last season as I couldn't see them out of the 3 and obviously there is a concern that Tamplin could mess things up again, but they have the best squad in the division in what is still a weak league, Havant aside and I honestly can't see anyone else other than the above two teams winning it so I am having the same amount on both teams.
 
Maidstone are next in the betting, but they don't excite me and I am not sure John Still is the right man for the job. No doubt Chelmsford will be up there again as they nearly always are. One year they will gain promotion, but they are going to have to attempt it via the play-offs for me. Sammy Moore left Concord in mysterious circumstances, but ended up at Hemel and has taken Concords best players with him. Concord finished 7th last season and Hemel should be play-off contenders. Bath look solid enough again and should be in and around the play-offs. Welling lost out in the play-off final, but Steve King has left and the budget cut so I can't see them finishing anywhere near the 3rd place King got them to last season. Braintree have got no chance and quotes of 12-14/1 is ludicrous. They have slashed the wage budget and signed a load of young players from leagues below. They will be nearer the relegation zone than the play-offs. Dartford blew a play-off place with a woeful end to the season, but they will be going for one again this term. I can see Eastbourne going better than their big odds suggest as they seem to be giving new manager Lee Bradbury money to invest.
 
I am going to throw in a 3rd small e/w bet to the Havant and Billericay bets and that is my local team Dulwich Hamlet. I actually think Dulwich would have pipped Billericay to the Ryman Premier title two seasons ago had Dulwich not had to move grounds during the season. They were allowed back home half way through the season and were regularly getting crowds in the high 2000's on their return. I went to one game in January and didn't get into the ground until 30 minutes in because of the queues to get in. I am fully expecting them to be the best supported team in the division and with the off the field issues looking better they clearly have money to spend based on the players they have been signing. Gavin Rose is a superb manager and he got his eye in last season and has said he is wanting a play-off place this time around. He has signed well and although on paper they aren't as strong as Havant or Billericay I think they will be capable of pushing them close and at 20/1 they offer each/way value. 
 
National League North
I have made a right mess of this division the last couple of seasons. Choosing York over Salford two years ago and then getting nowhere near with my 3 picks last season. Hopefully I can do better this time around and having initially thought York were poor favourites I am now tipping them to win the title at 5/1. Steve Watson came in during last season and steadied the ship, but he has made some impressive signings and Steve McNulty is a huge one in defence. I don't think the league looks quite as strong as it has in the last couple of seasons and they look more than capable of making that step-up from their first two disappointing seasons at this level.
 
The main dangers for me are Spennymoor and they look a very fair price at 10/1 to go along side York in the portfolio. They would have been in the play-offs two seasons ago, but for having to play a huge number of games in the last couple of months. Then last season they lost in the play-off final to Chorley in a penalty shoot-out. The squad looks strong again and they really ought to be challenging for the title.
 
Chester are 2nd in the betting, but I am just not sure about them this season. Johnson and Morley had an OK first season in charge, but they seem to be talking down their chances a bit and I'm not sure the squad is strong enough to be going for the title. It could be that the managers need another season to get things right.
 
Altrincham look pretty solid again and they should be in the play-off mix. Brackley might drop back a bit as they look weaker than their last couple of seasons. Hereford have strengthened well and Marc Richards will be hoping they will be in the play-off hunt otherwise he will be out a job. Kidderminster had a poor season last time around and I don't really see it getting much better for them this time either.
 
I backed both Boston and Southport last season and I was tempted by both again as Boston look to be better and Southport showed glimpses of how good they could be last season. They are still full time and I think with another summer behind him Liam Watson has strengthened again. I think at 20/1 they are worth a small e/w bet. Darlington also were half tempting as Alun Armstrong did a superb job at Blyth and I think he will get Darlington in the play-off hunt this time around.
 
BetVictor Northern Premier League
The only step 3 league I didn't get the winner off last season as South Shields' dreadful early away form stopped them from beating Farsley for the title and then they failed in the play-offs. They are the team to beat for sure and the signing of Jason Gilchrest was very eye-catching. The problem is with BetVictor being first up and also heavily promoting (understandably) their prices it has meant some of their big prices have long gone and it has meant that the other two bookies, Hills and 365, who have priced up the Step 3 leagues have had their card marked. South Shields are priced up at 7/4 and as much as I think they will win it I can't put them up as a single bet at that price. I do suggest sticking them in any multiple bets you do which is what I will be doing. 
 
Instead I will be putting up 3 e/w against them looking to get at least some e/w money back. Warrington have been strong the last 2 seasons in this division making the play-offs both times and Paul Carden again looks like he has built a squad that look set to challenge for the top spot. 12/1 is a big price about them.  Ashton look like they have an increased budget this season and have attracted some good players from the league above and at 12/1 they look worth backing as well. The final team is Gainsborough. I thought they disappointed a bit last season, but they look to have built a decent squad and at 16/1 they look overpriced.
 
BetVictor Southern Premier League Central
BetVictor made a massive rick when putting Tamworth in at 16/1 and no I wasn't in a position to take advantage at the time. Still I think they are just about value at 4/1 with Hills and Bet365. They did pretty well in the 2nd half of last season and they have made some really impressive signings over the summer and look to have the best squad in the division. With Kettering and Kings Lynn gone this league looks weak and Tamworth look by far the most likely winners.
 
Nuneaton nearly went bust last season, but have had investment and have signed well. They should be play-off contenders, but last season was so bad I just wonder if winning the title is beyond them and they look a bit short in the betting. Stourbridge have a new manager this season in the first time in a long time. They tried to keep with Kettering last year, but were always going to come up short. They should go well again though. Royston and Peterborough Sports warrant mentions as being possible play-off clubs as well.
 
I am going to back a couple of others though. Now this is one bet that really has been led by Paul as I wouldn't be putting them up without him, but he fancies Bromsgrove Sporting and he has sold me on them as well. They were promoted last season and look capable of going up again this term. 16/1 is on the big side. The other team is Rushall Olympic. I put them up last year and they were a bit disappointing, but were much improved in the 2nd half of the season. I like Liam McDonald as a manger and they have a 3G pitch this term and Liam has built his side around that fact. They could pick up plenty of points at home and at 20/1 they are worth a small bet e/w.
 
BetVictor Southern Premier League South
I think this could be the most competitive section with some strong looking teams going for the title. The main bet for me are Weston-Super-Mare who are looking to bounce straight back up. They were woeful last season and deserved to go down, but they have got Scott Bartlett in as manager which I think is a good move and he has signed really impressively. I actually think they have a stronger squad than last year and would be capable of doing OK in the National League South. 10/1 looks a big price to me.
 
Taunton nearly pipped Weymouth to the title and it is no surprise they are in single figures. They should be a play-off team again, but they don't really look like they have progressed as a squad and they might pay for that. Gosport were woeful last year, but suddenly some money seems to have been found as they have signed pretty well. They look rather short to me in the betting though. Hayes & Yeading walked to the title last season and although they have lost some players, they still look strong and should go well as should Poole.
 
I haven't mentioned the favourites Salisbury yet and they are the 2nd team I am going to back at 5/1. They had a good first season back at this level and they look capable of progressing past Taunton who have finished above them the last two seasons. The other bet has been that Paul has pointed me in the direction off and that is Chesham. Had a season very much of two halves last time around, but the 2nd half was good. I know I say I don't pay too much attention to pre-season friendlies, but something about one of their games caught my eye. They thrashed Hampton & Richmond a couple of weeks ago and the Hampton Twitter feed mentioned Chesham were playing the game at the sort of intensity you would expect from a league game. That bodes well for the season ahead and at BetVictor's 16/1 they are worth a small e/w bet.
 
BetVictor Isthmian Premier Division
The scene of the biggest ante-post winner I have ever had as Dorking won in a canter at 33/1. I also put up Margate, Kingstonian and Enfield and they are the same 3 teams I am going to put up again this year.
 
Margate were very average until Jay Saunders came in as manager and they improved massively. They went straight to the top of my teams to back for the following season until he then left. A few weeks later however he was back and that is huge. He has already won this league and really should still be Maidstone manager and don't forget last summer Macclesfield tried to get him. He has signed well and I would have them as favourites so 10/1 is a big price.
 
Kingstonian had a bizarre season last time around. They were terrible, then really good climbing to 2nd and then only got 4 points in 2019 just missing out on being relegated. They have got Merstham manager Hayden Bird in and after he got them to a play-off place last season he has taking 10 of the team with him. That should be to their advantage and they look to have a squad capable of pushing for the title.
 
Enfield also threatened to play a part in the play-offs at least, but disappointed in the end to finish mid-table. Andy Leese has kept the best of the squad though and looks to have added well to it. They really ought to be capable of being in the play-offs at the very least.
 
Hornchurch (they have dropped the AFC now) have been backed into market leaders. They were favourites going into last season as well and looked poor ones at that. It proved to be the case as they were miles off the pace from the start. Mark Stimson came in and improved things a bit to be fair. They seem to have a bit of cash and made some decent signings, but quite why they are as short as 7/2 baffles me as I would have them in double figures myself. Outside of that Bognor, Folkestone, Carshalton and Lewes should be capable of being in the play-off hunt.
 
 
Wrexham 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Hartlepool 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Marathon and Betway
Hartlepool 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1with Bet365
Bromley 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1 with Bet365
Woking to go down 2pts @ 5/2 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfair
Halifax to go down 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
Danny Rowe 1.5pts e/w to be top goalscorer @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places)
 
Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365
Billericay 2.5pts @ 5/1 with Bet365
Dulwich Hamlet 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
 
York 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365
Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Southport 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet 365
 
Warrington 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365
Ashton 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
Gainsborough 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill
 
Tamworth 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and William Hill
Bromsgrove 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor
Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor
 
Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Salisbury 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365
Chesham 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor
 
Margate 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Kingstonian 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor
Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
 
Total points - 41
 
NB price on Rowe now gone with BetVictor but still 11/2 with Bet365

Djere to beat Cilic at 2.38 with Unibet
Cilic won 2 close wins against Klizan and Struff, but his overall shape during the year is not impressive. Jere is making tremendous progress - winning the title in Rio and playing semifinal in São Paulo and Budapest. The Serbian is in better shape and preferred surface give a good chance to win this game.

Attila Balasz to beat Mate Valkusz at 1.75 with BetVictor
Time for me to trust Balasz once again I guess. He didn't care much about Ostrava last week, but I can understand that, he was going there from a bigger tournament and this week's Challenger is bigger as well, so perhaps he was just saving some energy. He's been the much better performer of the two in recent weeks in any case, however, and should take this if he wants it. Valkusz has improved since his two previous losses against Balasz, but I wouldn't say that he's on his level just yet. Was expecting something like 1.50.

Fognini to beat Edmund at 1.93 with Pinnacle
Edmund has played 4 games this year on clay and has lost 3 of them. A few days ago he even lost to Kudla in Munich and that shows us what his level is at the moment. After winning in Monte Carlo, Fognini gave up Barcelona and Estoril and now returns rested. I do not see this as a 50-50 game, I think Fognini should be a solid favorite here, of course there is always a question about Fabio's motivation, but if he has taken it seriously should win this game easily.

Krystina Pliskova to beat Marta Kostyuk at 1.82 with Marathonbet
Im a little bit surprised for these odds, Kostyuk is a player with a great future but she’s only 16 and she has to face an experienced player with one of the best serves of the circuit. Krystina is playing very well now, she comes here after destroying Krunic and Kanepi, both in straight sets. Her W/L record on this surface is 119-108. Kostyuk has a W/L record of 23-10, most of them against low ranked players but with some interesting wins over decent players like Schmiedlova, Pera and Anisimova (in her first match here). She has win here against Anisimova and Irina Bara, both in 3 sets. At this odds I prefer Krystina Pliskova with no doubts.

Hearts v Kilmarnock.
Kilmarnock can virtually end Hibs European hopes with 3 points at Tynecastle today. Hearts are a poor side, I'm still in disbelief that they somehow stole a point at Easter Road last week after being completely outplayed by Hibs. Kilmarnock are a very decent side and the odds on the away win look good to me.
Kilmarnock win @ 2.62.

I somehow believe Naomi Osaka could beat Donna Vekic. It is not really a common sense but more like a feeling, sort of inner me tells me Osaka could win. I perfectly know and understand that Donna is very good clay courter but maybe she might be impressed playing against No. 1 on current WTA ranking. I might try to take Naomi in some double with some Ligue 2 game (like Clermont-Paris FC X2) just for fun and to respect my feeling... Could be tottaly wrong therefore please do not curse me if you follow my thoughts and (I certainly hope not) fall with bet...

I somehow believe Naomi Osaka could beat Donna Vekic. It is not really a common sense but more like a feeling, sort of inner me tells me Osaka could win. I perfectly know and understand that Donna is very good clay courter but maybe she might be impressed playing against No. 1 on current WTA ranking. I might try to take Naomi in some double with some Ligue 2 game (like Clermont-Paris FC X2) just for fun and to respect my feeling... Could be tottaly wrong therefore please do not curse me if you follow my thoughts and (I certainly hope not) fall with bet...

So we finally reach the last day of the regular season. It was nice to get a profit on Monday with Weston, Dover and Dorking all landing at big odds. This season has been very up and down although still be a decent enough season. The ante-post stuff will show a nice profit and we are basically waiting on who wins the Evo-Stik Southern Premier as Weymouth and Taunton were both covered. I really need it to be Weymouth to help land a lumpy mid-season acca I put on (although Farsley aren't home and hosed yet either), but at least I have Taunton covered. Hopefully it can be a profitable end of the season on the match betting front where I have some big prices again.
AFC Fylde v Halifax
It doesn't really matter if Fylde come 4th or 5th and I reckon they might rest a few players in this match with the play-off matches coming thick and fast next week. They are guaranteed a home tie in the first round of matches and will be away in the next tie if they get through anyway so with that in mind Halifax are worth a bet here at 11/2. They beat Wrexham 2-1 on Easter Monday who are the team in 5th at the moment so there is no reason why they can't repeat the same sort of performance here.
Boreham Wood v Eastleigh
The home side gave it a good go at Chesterfield for us on Monday, but ended up going down 3-2 after having a man sent off. Eastleigh made sure of their play-off spot by beating Maidenhead and like Fylde it doesn't really matter if they finish 6th or 7th because they will be away in both the possible games anyway and I can imagine that they will rest key players. This gives Wood a chance especially as they have performed well in recent weeks so are worth backing at just over 2/1.
Bromley v Ebbsfleet
God knows what is happening behind the scenes at Ebbsfleet, but the players still haven't been paid and it is hard to see how they are going to be overly motivated to put in a performance here for a club that is in a right mess off the pitch. The loss to Dover on Monday meant they can no longer finish in the play-offs so there really is nothing to play for and they were poor in that game as it was. Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 4 so still seem to be trying and they beat Leyton Orient 5 games ago. They should be favs for this and 7/4 looks a huge price.
Hartlepool v Salford
Taking a bit of a chance here, but I am backing the home side. I just wonder if Salford will decide to concentrate on the play-offs given they are highly unlikely to catch Leyton Orient. If Orient go in front early on then Salford will know their number is really up and they wont want to be risking injuries ahead of the play-offs. Hartlepool aren't exactly ending the season in great form but they did beat Halifax on Good Friday. Team news could be key, but it might just pay to be ahead of the game here and have a small investment at a big price in the hope Salford have one eye on the play-offs.
Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
Not that long ago Spennymoor were in poor form, but they have won 4 of their last 5 games and are setting themselves up nicely for the play-offs. They got a huge win against at the time league leaders Chorley on Easter Monday and they will be trying here as if they can overtake Brackley then they will have one less game in the play-offs. As I have mentioned a few times of late Curzon have stopped for the season based on their performances and odds against on the away side picking up another win is a big price.
Eastbourne v Concord
I really don't get the price of Concord here. I think the bookies are basing it on the fact they are basically certain of a play-off spot, but what they have missed is the fact that they can finish 4th or 5th and that would mean a home tie in the first round of the play-offs. Given how strong they have been at home this season that would be huge if they could overtake Bath and or Chelmsford. God knows where Eastbourne's 6-0 drubbing of Dartford came from given it had been a very long time since they last won prior to that. They then drew with Slough 1-1 on Monday which was a decent effort as well. They are safe now though and with Concord still having something to play for they just should be 9/2.
Woking v Gloucester City
I suspect if Gloucester had not come from 2 down to beat Chippenham 3-2 on Monday then Gloucester would not have been such a big price for this because they still would have been fighting for their survival. Fortunately for me and my fellow City supporters we are now safe for another season, but I think we can go out on a win. Our away form has been much stronger than our home form this term, but the key point is that Woking have nothing to play for. They can only finish 2nd now and I really can't believe that they won't be resting players ahead of the play-offs. Why would Alan Dowson risk his key players in a meaningless game a few days ahead of trying to win promotion? 21/5 looks a big price on an away win to me.
Halifax 1pt @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
Bromley 2pts @ 7/4 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred
Gloucester 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor

Getafe v Real Madrid- Real to win at 2.03 with Pinnacle
Getafe has a real chance for a Champions League places, but for me this team does not have the class to play even in Europa League. I have watched several of their games in the past weeks and I am far from being impressed by their performance. Last round they won 3-0 against Sevilla, but 2 of their goals were controversial, and even when they stayed with a man more on the pitch did not manage to create a goal opportunities.  Real does not play for anything, and that's what makes them very dangerous. For me the real odds here for the guests should be around 1.6 and at the odds around 2 I have an easy decision.
Sociedad v Villarreal- Villarreal (0 AH) to win at 2.02 with Pinnacle
Villarreal needs points to stay away from the danger zone. They are a good team and their place in La Liga does not fit their class. In recent weeks, they have improved their performance and I expect that they will be far away from relegation zone at the end of the season. Sociedad are in the middle of the table and playing for nothing, this is visible from their results - only 1 win in the last 9 games.

I also think that Ramos has a good chance here.  OK, Medvedev had a great week in Monte Carlo but eventually failed at the most important moment against Layovic. We know poor Medvedev's performance on clay, it seems to me that his good game last week is rather an exception and I expect to lose in the first rounds.  I expect victory for Grigor Dimitrov, Verdasco is not in good shape and I do not think he has a chance here.  Dimitrov played awesome 1st set against Nadal and would win against any player other than Rafa. The Bulgarian already lost a lot of points last week, and now has to defend the quarterfinals from last year.

Please, guys, do not argue here. We should share our views and understanding about tennis and tennis players and help each other to win some money from bookies. Bookies are our enemies, not forum members. The power of argument is our weapon. That is my view. Keep coming with good arguments and information and we will all much lighter decide where to put our money.
BTW, Milojevic grabed a life line and plays now 3rd Set but he is already broken...

Please, guys, do not argue here. We should share our views and understanding about tennis and tennis players and help each other to win some money from bookies. Bookies are our enemies, not forum members. The power of argument is our weapon. That is my view. Keep coming with good arguments and information and we will all much lighter decide where to put our money.
BTW, Milojevic grabed a life line and plays now 3rd Set but he is already broken...

Please, guys, do not argue here. We should share our views and understanding about tennis and tennis players and help each other to win some money from bookies. Bookies are our enemies, not forum members. The power of argument is our weapon. That is my view. Keep coming with good arguments and information and we will all much lighter decide where to put our money.
BTW, Milojevic grabed a life line and plays now 3rd Set but he is already broken...

Please, guys, do not argue here. We should share our views and understanding about tennis and tennis players and help each other to win some money from bookies. Bookies are our enemies, not forum members. The power of argument is our weapon. That is my view. Keep coming with good arguments and information and we will all much lighter decide where to put our money.
BTW, Milojevic grabed a life line and plays now 3rd Set but he is already broken...

Nikola Milojevic to beat Gianluca Mager @ odds 2.76 with Pinnacle
Mager will get dusted from the baseline in this match. Nikola is the fitter, and better technical player. Its not party out there for him.. It's serbian fighter who will see the finals through properly, and get the recognition, prize money, and most importantly the accomplishment of playing his best, and enjoying the sport. I've watched Mager recently, and seen some extra video of him.. This type of player will revert to defensive slices, and they aren't very sharp either.. Yes, he has alot of skills on the challenger tour. But, Milojevic is on the rise right now.. I've been evaluating the serbian younger players, and I think he has more potential than Kecmanovic and Djere. His serve is more potent, and he plays with intangibles like clever net play and timely shots.  So the match is in Italy.. This does not matter a single ounce for this match in my mind, and it may even make MIlojevic more determined. Its a banker bet for me.  I watched Milojevic vs Andrea Arnaboldi, and he is in form right now. He also took care of business in his last three matches in straight sets. If you bet this match: Do not expect to lose. I'm rating this as 85% win rate. Good luck everyone.

If Astra Sharma will play in final in Bogota against Amanda Anisimova like she played in semifinal against Lara Arruabarrena, she will demolish her... Anisimova was against Beatriz Haddad Maia already on course to go home but Brazilian destroyed herself somehow with poor service and double faults and stupid mistakes. I see Sharma way better with service and in game as Beatriz was and Sharma is also more explosive and way faster to catch the ball. I believe with her game plan she can find a right answer for Anisimova and beat her. Only issue against Sharma for me is a fact, that she could be fascinated playing in the final of WTA tournament as this is not common thing for her at this level. Odds 2.75 or higher are definately worth a try I think.