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tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 8th
Saturday was a superb day with 5 of the 7 bets winning including the Nap's Spennymoor and Stratford at a big price as well. Tuesday saw two winners and an injury time goal from Horsham stopped us getting 3/3 in midweek. This Saturday I have 8 bets spread across the leagues and the FA Trophy.
Welling v Slough (National League South)
Happy to go in with Welling again after they did us a turn last weekend against St Albans. This is a tougher game for the home side, but as I mentioned last week I think we will continue to see improved performances from them due to the change in manager. Slough are obviously in the play-off picture, but did lose to Oxford City last week and I give Welling a better chance of making it 4 wins on the bounce than the bookies do.
Hednesford v Kings Langley (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Another team to do the business for us in the last week were Kings Langley who came from a goal down to win on Tuesday night. That win continued their great form and they can pick up another 3 points here. I don't think all is right at Hednesford and they have lost their last 3 games and the only wins in their last 10 are against the lesser teams in the division. I nearly opposed them on Tuesday but left Nuneaton alone in the end only for Nuneaton to win 3-0. Kings Langley can go above their hosts with a win here and I would make them favourites to do so.
Buxton v Gainsborough (BetVictor Northern Premier)
Gainsborough were the other team to win for us on Tuesday night and that made it 5 wins on the bounce. We have been on them a few times of late and they are worth backing again here for me. Buxton have only managed 6 wins all season and although they aren't in bad form they are tending to beat the teams around them more than anything else and Trinity are clearly better than a 15th place team at the moment.
Radcliffe v Lancaster (BetVictor Northern Premier)
Radcliffe have picked up just one point in their last 8 games and they have scored 6 goals in their last 10 whilst conceding 23. Lancaster look a good price at odds against to beat them. They are 3rd in the table at the moment and had a good win against Warrington last weekend. They ought to be capable of picking up 3 more points here.
Potters Bar Town v AFC Hornchurch (BetVictor Isthmian Premier)
As I mentioned when I took Potters Bar on a couple of weeks ago they tend to only be capable of beating teams lower in the table than them and struggle against the better teams in the league. Hornchurch are certainly one of those as Folkestone have been the only team to beat them in their last 10 matches. They look full of goals at the moment and have scored 7 in their last 2 matches. Like Lancaster I think they should be odds on to win this.
Aveley v Chelmsford (FA Trophy)
Into the FA Trophy now and I fancy Step 4 Aveley to cause an upset here. I don't think all is well at Chelmsford at the moment with the sacking of Rod Stringer last week and then they were beaten by Dulwich on Saturday. They look vulnerable against an Aveley side who in any other season would be likely title winners having lost just 3 games all season, but they are in the same division as Maldon & Tiptree so they are going to have to try and go up via the play-offs. Maldon are actually the only team to have beaten Aveley in their last 10 league games, but they are clearly better than a Step 4 side. This looks the perfect time to play Chelmsford as well so they are worth a bet.
Barnet v Barrow (FA Trophy)
Barrow suffered their first loss since October on Tuesday night when they went down 2-1 to Dover and I think they can lose again here. The team made their way down to London on Friday morning, but although the exact team isn't known Ian Evatt has said he will be using the fringe players of his squad. That isn't really a surprise given the position they have in the league and the fact they had a long journey on Tuesday night. I suspect we will see a strong Barnet side as they will see this as a good chance to progress to the next round and get a step closer to Wembley. Paul McCallum is a great signing and he should help them get the goals they have sometime been lacking. I would make them favourites myself.
Ebbsfleet v Royston (FA Trophy)
Royston like Aveley have been flying in their league of late and have also only been beaten in their last 10 games by the best side in their division, in this case Tamworth. They beat Chester 3-0 in the previous round and they certainly won't fear an Ebbsfleet side who look like they are going to be relegated back down to Step 2 this season. At 16/5 it looks a value play to me.
Welling 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill
Kings Langley 2pts @ 197/100 with Marathon
Gainsborough 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor
Lancaster 3pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
AFC Hornchurch 3pts @ 23/20 with Marathon
Aveley 1pt @ 69/25 with Marathon
Barnet 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Royston 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 4th/5th
I have taken the last couple of midweek's off as nothing caught my eye enough to want to have a bet, but this week there are 3 bets that I like on Tuesday and Wednesday evening all at step 3.
Kings Langley v Biggleswade (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford were one of my winners on Saturday at a huge price as they beat Biggleswade 1-0 with a late goal. We may have got slightly fortunate as Stratford set themselves up to get a point, but luckily for us the nicked all 3. It does mean though that it is one win in 6 for them with that coming against a poor St Ives side. Kings Langley are bang in form at the moment having lost just one in their last 9 and that was against a very good Royston side. They only drew 1-1 on Saturday against Barwell, but their keeper let the ball slip out of his hands from a routine cross and they otherwise dominated the game. As long as they convert their chances on Tuesday night they will take the 3 points and look a good price to do so.
Stalybridge Celtic v Gainsborough Trinity (BetVictor Northern Premier)
Trinity have been a team I have put up a few times in recent weeks as they continue to improve under their new manager and they are now unbeaten in 9 and have failed to win just one of their last 7 matches. Yes the fixture list has been fairly kind, but they proved on Saturday how much they have improved by beating a Basford side who had won 5 on the bounce and are going for promotion. The home side have not won in 6 now although did get a very good point against likely champions South Shields. Everyone wants to try and beat South Shields though and you couldn't be certain that they will reproduce that performance and with Trinity flying I will take them to bag the 3 points.
Kingstonian v Horsham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier)
Horsham looked potential title contenders at 1 stage, but if they continue in their current form then they won't even keep the play-off spot they are currently in. They have won just 3 of their last 7 games and 2 of those came against clubs in the bottom 6. They lost 2-1 to Cray on Saturday which on the face of it doesn't look bad as Cray are 3rd, but Cray had to play for 77 minutes with just 10 men and yet still had a comfortable enough afternoon. The home side have lost just one of their last 10 although they have drawn half of those games and that does concern me slightly, but they are clearly in better form than Horsham and really ought to be shorter than 38/25 to pick up the 3 points.
Kings Langley 2pts @ 6/5 with Marathon
Gainsborough Trinity 1pt @ 38/25 with Marathon
Kingstonian 1pt @ 38/25 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 25th
A small profit last Saturday thanks to Boston and Hendon winning to keep things ticking over. This Saturday I have just the 4 bets with 3 of them over 2/1.
Chesterfield v AFC Fylde (National League)
Two sides who were favourites for the title and yet find themselves in the relegation zone. Chesterfield do seem to have improved for the change of manager and have won both games since sacking John Sheridan which makes their big price here baffling. Fylde haven't won in 7 league games now and although they have drawn against Yeovil and Barrow in that time. They have lost 3 on the bounce now and although you feel they should get themselves out of the relegation zone they are struggling to do so. Like I say the 5/2 available on a home win is huge and it is the sort of price you would expect if Chesterfield were the away side so I am more than happy to take it.
Chester v Darlington (National League North)
Chester are hard to beat at home and are clearly a side who look destined for a play-off berth, but I do think Darlington are a big price at 3/1 here as I would make them a point shorter myself. They have won 7 of their last 8 league games and they beat Solihull in the FA Trophy. In that spell they beat Chester in the reverse fixture and also beat York. They are clearly flying right now and this game is much closer than the odds compilers think it is.
Potters Bar Town v Bognor Regis Town (BetVictor Isthmian Premier)
I like Bognor here who seem to have picked up after a dodgy spell. Having mentioned them for the league at 20/1 in the ante-post update before Christmas they then duly lost 3 of their next 4. However they have won their last two beating good teams in Leatherhead and Folkestone. Potters Bar are a pretty average side and have won 3 and lost 3 of their last 6, but they are beating the lesser teams in the division and whenever they come up against a better side they tend to struggle. Hopefully Bognor will show their superior class here.
Leiston v Rushall Olympic (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Even I didn't think an improving Leiston would be able to beat Tamworth last week and yet they only went and just that. That was a huge effort to beat the best team in the division and it shows how far they have come. I can't believe that on the back of that and the fact they have lost just twice in their last 7 games that they are still being treated as if they are a bad side by the bookies. 1 of those defeats a lot of the squad was ill and the other was an unfortunate injury time loss to Rushden. Rushall are a decent side and have won 5 of their last 7, but I think Leiston are as good as them now and the 16/5 quote is massive in my view.
Chesterfield 1pt 5/2 with Bet365
Darlington 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred and Betway
Bognor Regis 1pt @ 7/4 with BetVictor
Leiston 1pt @ 16/5 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Toptipsters in Australian Open 2020
WTA Australian Open:
Elise Mertens - Catherine Bellis [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/
Bellis WTA 600 is back after two surgeries and more than a year and half without tennis. She is surely talented player, but after the break, she still needs more time to compete with top players. In Houston last year she played very soft tennis with no power. This year its little better, but still lost easily to Kudermetova and Pegula. Here she had great draw, as Maria is really poor rcently and Muchova lost her form. I would rate her tennis to between 60-70th spot currently.
Mertens WTA 17 is tough player, she is not only great in defence, but started to push as well. She played well in Shenzen and Hobart, despite loosing to Rybakina and Waton, but both matches had high quality. Here she won easily with Kovinic and revenge with Watson.
Both met yesterday in doubles and Elise was clearly better from the baseline. I know its diffrenet game, but I simply expect the same scenario today, with Mertens better in all aspects of the game. GL
tomcody reacted to Toptipsters in Australian Open 2020
WTA Australian Open:
Belinda Bencic - Anett Kontaveit [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/
Bencic (WTA 7) is improving here in every match and slowly reaching her last year form after the average start of the season. In Shenzen she didnt really tried hard, but in Adeleide she did, and after solid wins with Kasatkina and Goerges she had no chance with Collins, and really not played so well there. Here she really played a lot better and especially with Ostapenko I saw many great moments.
I really like Kontaveits (WTA 31) game style, but she is doing too many mistakes this year. I saw both her losses with Bertens and Pavlyuchenkova, and she simply wasnt good enough. Here she had a lot of troubles with Sorribes.
I like this odds a lot, despite it dropped a bit already before I got to the writeup. Still enough value. Bencic is more stable currently with smart game, which will work well against Kontaveit, who really doesnt like the rythm changes. GL
tomcody reacted to ivanhoe in Australian Open 2020
C.C. Bellis - T. Maria 1
I wrote about Bellis before. I like her style and shots - everything she does on the court looks simple and easy. She had been injured and she played only four matches in 2019 and her fitness might be questionable but I believe she posses more than enough quality to beat experienced German. Her motivation shouldn`t be be an issue here. I won`t be surprised if she takes this in straight sets.
Duckworth - Bedene 2
I believe Slovenian will finally make a breakthrough and advance to the 2nd round of AO. He has the skills and experience to do this. Duckworth is a fighter that never gives up and can be unpredictable when playing at home but I simply think Bedene is a better player will prevail in the end.
Hercog - Peterson 2
I know Peterson has had some fitness issues lately but I still think she deserves my support. She likes playing on hard while Hercog doesn`t - hard court has never been her cup of tea. I watched her a couple of times and, at least in my opinion, she didn`t play well. I`m not saying it will be easy but Rebecca should advance to the next round. Low stakes though.
tomcody reacted to Jves in Australian Open 2020
I just cannot help it, but I need to react.
Being a pro-tipster does not mean you need to be able to predict how will the tournament finish. Being a pro tipster, you should know, (as you said you are) means to have a long-term ability to find a “good” price, a value price, a price, where you think the chance of X happening is bigger than the odds on offer and market got it wrong. Calling Halep possible loss a big upset seems to me a bit over the top, when market thinks there is roughly 33% chance of it. I call a big upset Shapovalov’s loss 3:1, mainly a big upset for you assuming you back your tips.
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 18th
Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > January 13th/14th
Not that many games this mid-week but I like 3 bets in the BetVictor Southern Premier Central over the next two nights.
Hitchin v Leiston
This game is tonight (Monday) and I am backing Leiston again here as I have done a few times of late. I thought they were on the short side for Saturday's game against AFC Rushden & Diamonds and they ended up losing 3-2 although they were 2-1 and only lost it in the 90th minute. It was another good performance though and it was more proof that they have improved a hell of a lot in the last 2/3 months. Hitchin should have won on Saturday as their opponents, Needham Market, goalkeeper was given man of the match as the game ended 0-0. I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and Leiston have been the better of late for me. Bet365's 21/10 about an away win looks value for me.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Needham Market
In a strange twist of fate the two teams who played the teams in the above bet also play each other this week and I like the home side here. Granted Needham have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but they have only won twice and as I mention above they ought to have lost on Saturday. In their previous game they only beat Stratford 1-0 and they have picked up only 1 point in their last 9 games. Rushden have won their last 3 and have only failed to win in 3 of their last 10 games. I would make them a shade of odds on myself so 5/4 with Bet365 looks good.
Alvechurch v Kings Langley
This division has got some poor sides in it this season who have been losing plenty of games which is one of the reasons why it has been a profitable section for me this term. The home side are one of those sides having lost 8 of their last 9 games with the win a 3-2 victory over bottom of the table Redditch. Langley are in good form only losing 1 of their last 6 and they played really well on Saturday in a 2-2 with Peterborough Sports. They look a good price at 5/4 with Bet365.
Leiston 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2.5pts @ 5/4 with Bet365
Kings Langley 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 11th January
Given the 3 losers last week had 9pts bet on them between them it was a relief to come out with just a small loss on the day as at one stage it was looking like it was going to be a huge loss. With Darlington winning on Wednesday that covered the loss on Saturday (at best prices available) I will take that going into this Saturday's action. I have 7 bets this week with 6 in the league games and 1 in the FA Trophy.
Previews to follow
Billericay v Slough
Granted they have only played 9 home league games this season because they have had issues with their pitch, but Billericay are yet to lose at home have won 5 and drawn 4. That is some going baring in mind the upheaval they have had this season and the fact they have struggled on the road. Having said that they were much improved at Bath last Saturday despite losing 2-1 and then on Tuesday night they beat the league leaders Wealdstone 3-1 at home. Slough are having a good season and are in 4th, but in their last 6 games they have won just twice and one of those was against Braintree so I think Billericay are more than capable of beating another promotion hopeful here. In my view they shouldn't be as big as 11/5
Hemel Hempstead v Havant & Waterlooville
Havant have still yet to lose away from home and have only lost 3 league games all season which is the fewest in the division. They are the best side in the division, but as they did at Braintree the other week they have dropped silly points. They lost last week at Maidstone when they should have really picked up a point at least and they should be odds on to beat a Hemel side who are struggling. The home side have only managed 1 win in their last 10 games and although they ought to have won at Chippenham on Tuesday night they let in 2 careless goals against a team who were also in poor form. In their last 10 games Havant have scored in all of them and in 7 of them have scored 2 or more goals so Havant don't need any gift wrapped goals to score. This should be an away win
Wealdstone v Welling
Wealdstone are in a bit of a dip at the moment which isn't a surprise as they were always going to struggle to keep up their strong start. As mentioned above they deservedly lost to Billericay on Tuesday and they also lost to Oxford City on Saturday. This game though does look the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and I think they can cover the -1 handicap. Welling have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have been conceding goals for fun as well. They have a new manager, but I am not sure how much difference that is going to make especially as they have been losing players, including two to Glenn Tamplin's Romford this week. The home side really ought to be winning this by at least 2 goals.
Weymouth v Dulwich Hamlet
I am hoping Dulwich are now showing the quality they should be showing and did show in August. They have scored 9 goals in their last two games putting 3 past Hampton and 6 past Braintree last Saturday. Travelling to Weymouth is obviously a step up, but Weymouth have lost 2 of their last 3 at home and Dulwich have been strong away from home all season, picking up plenty of draws in their long spell between victories. They also travelled to Havant and beat them in the FA Cup. I think this game is much closer than the bookies suggest as I would have Hamlet around 2/1 so they rate a value bet.
Spennymoor v Kettering
I am backing Kettering again here as they look a big price at 5/1 to win this. I have tipped up Kettering enough of late that I don't really need to repeat about them, but they won for us last Saturday. Spennymoor are in another dodgy spell and have only won 2 of their last 7 games and have lost 3 of their last 4. Granted going to Kings Lynn and having a man sent off is always going to be hard, but in my view there isn't a great deal between these two sides at the moment and given Kettering are clearly in a false league position they just shouldn't be a 5/1 chance. I would have them no bigger than 2/1 myself.
Gainsborough Trinity v Witton
Trinty have improved for their new manager and are now unbeaten in 5 games. Like Kettering I think they are in a false position at the moment and with Witton only picking up 1 point in their last 5 it looks a nice chance for the home side to continue their rise up the table.
Barrow v FCUM
I was hoping Barrow were going to put out the same side they did on Tuesday in the FA Trophy replay, but it seems it will be more like they one they put out against Ebbsfleet last Saturday. They won that game 7-0, but I think in many ways this will be a tougher game for them. For a start Barrow's main task is winning the National League so this Trophy tie is not a priority. FCUM are a much better side than Atherton so they will be in for a tougher game as well. FCUM are also in flying form winning 7 of their last 9 league games and drawing the other two. In that spell they have score 30 goals and although they have only kept one clean sheet in that spell there has to be a chance they can outscore a Barrow side in a game they will be more motivated to win. I still think a price of 21/4 is a value price about an away win.
Billericay 1pt @ 11/5 with BetVictor
Havant & Waterlooville 4pts @ 21/20 with Betfred and BetVictor
Wealdstone -1 2pts @ 17/10 with Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Betway
Dulwich 1pt @ 27/10 with BetVictor
Kettering 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365
Gainsborough 2pts @ 31/20 with BetVictor
FCUM 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 14th December
The FA Trophy steps up another gear this weekend with the National League sides joining the competition, although as usual I suspect some won't want to be staying in the competition for long as they will have other matters on their mind. I am going with 6 bets in the Trophy. In the league's I have 2 singles and a double.
Atherton Colleries V Barrow
Barrow are surprise leaders in the National League at the moment and it isn't hard to think that with the focus being firmly on promotion that they will be putting out a weakened side here. The National League sides have to play 4 games in 9 days over Christmas and with such a busy and crucial period coming up it is easy to imagine that Ian Evatt will rest a few key players for a tie like this. That doesn't mean they won't still win, but I am not sure there is a too much depth in the side and that gives the home team a sporting chance of winning. They managed to upset Boston in the previous round and are unbeaten in their last 3 league games so they are coming into this in decent nick. I'd still make Barrow favourites, but at 6/1 if they face a weakened Barrow side then it is worth an investment.
Dorking v Bromley
Like Barrow I can see Bromley resting players ahead of the busy Christmas period. They got the final a couple of years ago when losing to Brackley, but they now want to get into the Football League and there is every chance this is going to be their best chance of actually winning the title given how weak and open the league looks. Dorking are having a good season in the National League South and are currently unbeaten in 5. They look over priced and even if Bromley were at full strength I wouldn't rule out them causing an upset anyway.
Harrogate v Hartlepool
I know Harrogate's home league form is strong, they are unbeaten in 9 and have won 7 of them, and Hartlepool had to play extra time against Exeter on Tuesday, but I still think Hartlepool are over priced at 31/10 with BetVictor. They should have held on for the win at Woking last week, but maybe Tuesday's night game crept into the players minds. They showed how good they are when beating Exeter and I think they are a better side than Harrogate. Given Dave Challinor won the Trophy with Fylde last season I think there is a strong chance he will want to try and win it again with his new club. Id have preferred if they hadn't gone to extra time on Tuesday, but I still think they are too big a price. If they are this sort of price on Boxing Day for the league version of this fixture then I will be backing them again.
Maidenhead v Hemel Hempstead Town
Alan Devonshire has already raised how annoyed he is with the fact the National League are making them play 4 games in 9 days and survival in the National League is probably more important than winning the FA Trophy. Hemel owe us one after a couple of surprise defeats when I put them up in recent weeks and they have lost 3 league games on the bounce. Even so I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides if Hemel play at their best as they have a good side and thus at 18/5 they are a value play here.
Solihull Moors v Darlington
Again like Barrow and Bromley I can see Tim Flowers resting some of the 1st team here. One line of theory is that he will want the 1st team to bounce back after losing to Wrexham last Saturday, but I think it would be more sensible to give them a longer break ahead of the busy period to come especially after the mentally tough to take loss to Rotherham in the FA Cup. Darlington proved in their FA Cup run they have a strong team on their day and they are more than capable of causing an upset especially if we see a weaker than usual Solihull side.
Sutton v Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham are in terrible form going into this tie with the 6-1 win over Aldershot sticking out like a sore thumb as they have lost their other 7 of their last 8 games. Peter Taylor must be feeling the pressure and they must surely be thinking about a change of manager if results don't improve soon. They have a tough game here though against an improving Sutton whose only defeat in their last 6 was against Bromley and they played well in that defeat. They look the best bet of the weekend to me.
Leiston v Peterborough Sports
The price available on Leiston is way too big for this game. As I mentioned last week they are a side who are now much better than their league position suggests. They duly bolted up against Redditch and although this is game is tougher they just shouldn't be 5/1 shots to win this. I would still make Sports favourites and they are having a good first season at this level, but the market hasn't caught up with Leiston's improved side and I am hopeful that even if we don't collect here we will get more opportunites to back them in the upcoming fixtures.
Weston-Super-Mare v Wimborne Town
Weston have been a bit disappointing this season and they have dropped silly points. They should really be in promotion contention and not near the relegation zone. I like the signing of Vincent Harper in the week as Gloucester had him on loan earlier in the season and I was very impressed with him. He will improve the side for sure and on paper they have a much stronger side than Wimborne. Hopefully they can make it show on the pitch.
St Ives v Redditch and Swindon Supermarine v Dorchester
Speaking of Redditch they have to be opposed again. They had quite a few academy players playing against Leiston and they then had another heavy defeat to Evesham in the League Cup. This is the only fixture St Ives will be odds on for all season because they aren't great either and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 9 games. This though is a must win for them and they really ought to be capable of doing so. Dorchester drew 4-4 against Gosport on Tuesday in a crazy game that Gosport were a man down for a lot of. This game is much harder for them as Swindon Supermarine are flying this season and look possible title contenders. This should be a home win and it looks a double well worth having.
Atherton Colleries 1pt @ 6/1 with BetVictor
Dorking 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor
Hartlepool 1pt @ 13/10 BetVictor
Hemel Hempstead Town 1pt @ 18/5 with BetVictor
Darlington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor
Sutton 2pts @ 117/100 with Marathon
Weston-Super Mare 1pt @ 34/25 with Marathon
Leiston 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor
St Ives/Swindon Supermarine 2pts double @ 1.94/1 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 7th December
1 bet in mid-week and it was a losing one which wasn't helped when Hitchin missed a penalty when it was still 0-0. Then on Tuesday night Blyth went and beat Alfreton in the FA Trophy and you may remember I put Blyth up last week when the game was postponed having also put them up in the first game. The fact they lost 6-0 on Saturday put me right off, but obviously still frustrating as that could easily have been a winning bet. Anyway onto Saturday and I have 5 bets.
Dover v Boreham Wood
Dover's poor home form continued in their last league game when they lost 4-3 to Maidenhead. Out of 12 home league games they have won just two against Wrexham and Eastleigh and with Boreham Wood unbeaten in 6 and having lost just twice in their last 10 this will be a tough game for them. The slight concern is they do draw a lot as they have drawn 4 in their unbeaten run, but It was a good win against Woking last Saturday and I think they are over priced to win this game at 12/5 with Marathon given how dodgy Dover are at home.
Woking v Hartlepool
Neither of these sides are losing very much at the moment with Woking losing just 3 of their last 10 league games and Hartlepool losing just 2, but as I mentioned a couple of weeks ago when I put Hartlepool up to beat Chesterfield I think they are a good side who should be higher up the table. They showed their class on Sunday when coming from 2 down to draw with Exeter and I am certain they are a better team than Woking. Like the game above the draw is a slight concern again, but I am happy to take them for the win at 21/10 with Bet365 as for me that is bigger than it ought to be.
Slough v Braintree
Slough are having a cracking season and are currently in 3rd position in the National League South having lost just 4 of their opening 18 games. They have only lost 1 of their last 10 games and their draw last Saturday against Tonbridge was the only other time they have failed to win in that spell. Needless to say I am opposing Braintree again here after Hampton landed the massive odds for us last Saturday with ease. This should be a home win and arguably it isn't priced up short enough at the current odds, but I am going to take them on the -1 handicap with is a 2/1 shot with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betway.
Hednesford v Hitchin
Here we have two teams who have both let us down in the last week with the home side losing on Saturday and as mentioned above Hitchin losing on Monday. Clearly not all is well at Hednesford though as the management team left on Monday to go to Buxton with on the face of it seems an odd move. That's why I can only think that something is going on behind the scenes and a poor performance on Saturday in a game they should have won on paper backs that up. As I wrote on Monday the only game Hitchin had lost in their last 10 was against Leiston who were really bad at the time so losing to a weakened Lowestoft would suggest they have some issues about seeing off the weaker teams at times. This could be a good time to be playing Hednesford and at 12/5 I am happy to beat Hitchin to beat them.
Redditch v Leiston
Speaking of Leiston I am backing them on Saturday. I must admit I was hoping for a bigger price, but in some ways they are still too big for me and the price is under pressure as I type. Since former manger Glen Driver has come back to the club they have gradully improved and although they are yet to win they have drawn their last 2 games against Nuneaton and Royston. This game offers a great chance to get their first win under Driver as they play the worst side in the division Redditch. They have also just changed their manager, but they lost 7-0 against Peterborough Sports in his first game in charge on Saturday. For me Leiston are the stronger side here and the 6/4 is worth taking with BetVictor. They are as short as 11/10 with Bet365.
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 12/5 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365
Slough -1 2pts @ 2/1 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betway
Hitchin 1pt @ 12/5 with Marathon
Leiston 2.5pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
tomcody reacted to Darran in FA Cup Predictions > Nov 29th - Dec 2nd
Maldon & Tiptree v Newport County
I am going to do something very unusual here, but bare with me because I think it will lead to a profit. The tip is going to be to back all 3 results and both teams to score. So that is Newport to win and BTTS (best of 9/4 with Betfred), the draw and BTTS (best of 13/2 with Bet365) and Maldon to win and BTTS (best of 18/1 with Bet365). The reason is I think this is the way to go is because I am fairly confident both teams will get on the score sheet and that Maldon have a fair chance of getting something out of the game so the Newport part of the bet is used as cover. I have already written on here when backing Maldon in their FA Trophy tie the match after they beat Leyton Orient as to how impressed I was with them in that victory and it was clear they are better than a normal Step 4 club. They scored impressive goals and as they have proven in their two FA Trophy ties since that they have plenty of goals in them. What we often see with Non-League sides, especially in the live games this season, is that the Non-League side have not been clinical enough in front of goal and that is where they have been lacking despite often having actually been the better side. I don't think Maldon have that issue and I really do think they will be capable of at least getting one against Newport. County have had plenty of cup upsets themselves in recent seasons, but they won't fancy this game at all. They aren't in the best of form in the league and they have only won twice away from home in the league so far this term. I do think they will however they will score a goal as Maldon have also proven themselves to be more than capable of conceding and Orient eventually put a goal past them despite playing poorly. I considered just tipping up Maldon or just backing BTTS to score which is actually odds against, but I think this way will give us profit it is just a case of how much.
Tranmere v Chichester
The other Step 4 side in Round 2 are Chichester although they of course got the bye which was great given a club like that really need the money. It would have been nice if they had got a home tie, but slightly surprising to me they have managed to get a live TV game despite having no chance of winning at Tranmere. I would even say that the fact it is on BT Sport makes it even harder for them as Tranmere will want to put on a bit of a show for the cameras and the class gap between these two sides is huge. I know Tranmere are finding it tough going in League 1, but that isn't a huge surprise after back to back promotions and this is a chance to actually score a few goals and enjoy the game that will have little pressure on it. I think they have a decent chance of covering the -3 handicap here and win by at least 4 goals which is a 23/10 chance with Betfair and Paddy Power.
FA Cup Acca
This was successful in the previous round so hopefully we can have another winning 5 fold and this one pays just over 11/2 with Betfair. Maldon aside I actually think upsets are going to be in short supply and even then that is a bit of a long shot. Eastleigh and Solihull have probably got the best chances and thus I am going to oppose most of the other Non-League sides who all have to travel. I have already mentioned Tranmere and in the acca I will put them in on the -2 handicap. I can't see Altrincham giving Portsmouth too many problems and given how Notts County are defending at the moment surely Northampton are going to outscore them. Blackpool are having a good season and I can't see National League South side Maidstone giving them too much to worry about and finally Rochdale host another Step 2 side in Boston and again they should have too much for them. Hartlepool and Dover are the other two I have left out who play away from and they could both be capable of causing an upset although they have tough ties on paper so I am happy to leave alone for punting purposes.
Newport & BTTS 1.5pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Draw & BTTS 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365 and Maldon & Tiptree & BTTS 1pt @ 18/1 with Bet365
Tranmere -3 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Portsmouth, Blackpool, Northampton, Rochdale & Tranmere -2 1pt @ 11/2 with Betfair
tomcody got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Nov 26th & 27th
I'm in a hurry so I will be short. I like:
- Juventus-Atletico Madrid 1X (in Turin is never easy to play against Juve and one point will probably guarantee home team 1st place in Group D)
- Real Madrid-PSG >3,5 goals (should be entairtening game)
- Galatasaray-Club Brugge 1X (playing in Istanbul against Galata with Fatih Terim on bench with depleted squad - his boys will play like for life I smell somehow - it is very tough task for Belgian team I think...)
Here are my thougts. Good luck to all on this great site!
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 26th
Good news is I am feeling better than I was so I can write some previews. Sadly Saturday's bets showed a small loss as although the two National League bets were winners, none of the 7 FA Trophy ones won despite some near misses. There is another Tuesday night with a full National League fixture list and I have 3 bets there with one more coming from the FA Trophy replays.
Chesterfield v Hartlepool
I was never that convinced by Chesterfield even when they were in a good spell of form and some of their defending of late has been schoolboy stuff. They conceded 3 against Chorley and Harrogate in their last two games and prior to that it was a 2-2 draw with Ebbsfleet. Having seen the goals they have been conceding it is no surprise they have been so leaky. I really do think Hartlepool are better than their league position suggests and hopefully Dave Challinor can get them playing a bit more consistently than they have been so far this season. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 league games 2-2 and the other was a 1-0 defeat against Solihull. Challinor should have had a win in his first league game in charge but Ebbsfleet came from 2 down and then on Saturday they had a bit of fortune coming from 2 down themselves against Boreham Wood who did deserve to win. I think Hartlepool are the better side, it is just a case of if they can actually prove it on the pitch. It would certainly seem we will be in for goals and hopefully Chesterfield's defence are feeling every bit as generous as they have been of late. They certainly shouldn't be as big as Betfair's 29/10 for me.
Eastleigh v Torquay
I know it seemed strange to beat putting Chorley up on Saturday especially with no explanation, but Torquay have been struggling with injuries and it showed when Sutton beat them the previous weekend. With Chorley winning at Chesterfield as mentioned above that meant I thought they had a much better chance than the odds suggested and I was proven spot on as Chorley fully deserved their win. They now have to go straight into another away trip at Eastleigh who although I don't think are anything special they are very consistent and have actually only lost one of their last 9 games. They look over priced here to me given Torquay's issues at the moment.
Notts County v Boreham Wood
I mention Chesterfield's shocking defending of late above, but Notts County have hardly been much better and have also been conceding embarrassing goals recently. Yes Barrow are top, but County really did make it quite easy for them at times and then they were poor at Aldershot on Saturday. Granted at home they have been strong in general, but clearly they are a bit shaky at the moment and Boreham Wood have been putting in some good performances recently. They are unbeaten in 4 having drawn 3 of those, but that includes a 1-1 draw with Yeovil as well as that draw with Hartlepool on Saturday. These two teams only have 1pt and 1 place between them at the moment and Wood certainly have the players to punish County if they continue to perform as they have been at the moment. County are the right favs, but I would have the away side around the 2/1 mark so the 100/30 with Betfair is value to me.
Alfreton v Blyth Spartans
We were very unlucky not to collect with Blyth on Saturday and they certainly look value to me at 7/2 to take this at the 2nd time of asking. As I have mentioned of late Blyth are much improved and don't look a side that are at the wrong end of the table as they are after their dreadful start to the season. I am more than happy to back them again.
Hartlepool 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair
Eastleigh 2pts @ 147/100 with Marathon
Boreham Wood 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 23rd
Due to illness not only are the tips up later than usual, but there will be no previews either. At the moment there are 7 FA Trophy bets for Saturday.
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365
Gainsborough 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365
Maldon & Tiptree 1pt @ 16/5 with BetVictor
Dartford 1pt @ 59/25 with Marathon
Hornchurch 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Bognor Regis 1pt @ 29/10 with BetVictor
Workington 1pt @ 4/1 with BetVictor, Betfred and William Hill
Have now had chance to look at the National League and have added 2 bets
Chorley 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
Bromley 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 16th
It has been a very profitable week with a money made last weekend and 3 out of the 4 bets winning in mid-week. Saturday I have 7 bets and a little unusually most of those are at Step 3.
Barnet v Stockport
After the first few games of the season I added Barnet to the list of ante-post bets as I thought they had looked promising early on. Ever since then they have been pretty poor and it sums the league up that despite that fact they are only 8 points of the top of the table. They have won just twice in their last 10 league games and they were against AFC Fylde and Chorley. The 3 draws in that spell weren't bad points, but if I was having an outright bet now it certainly wouldn't be them. It wouldn't be Stockport either, but after their horrid run of form where they lost 5 on the bounce, a run started with a 3-0 loss at Chorley, they have been in very good form on the whole. They have lost just one of their last 6 league games and are clearly back in decent form. They look over priced to me and I am happy to take a chance at 3/1.
Bradford Park Avenue v Leamington
I can't really work out why Bradford are the outsiders here because in my view the prices should be the other way round. With their former manager back in charge they look an improved side. They beat Hereford in his first game back and then I watched them in their 1-0 defeat to Gloucester where I saw enough to think they could well stay up. They then followed that up by conceding 7 without reply in defeats to Southport and Kettering, but they were much better again last week when they were 2-1 up with 7 minutes to go against Kings Lynn and ended up losing 3-2. Kings Lynn are a very good side though and Leamington are not and if they can take that performance into this I think they can pick up 3 points. Leamington have picked up just 1 point in their last 7 games and they have conceded a huge 22 goals in that spell. They even managed to concede 3 in the game they got their point in against Chester. Granted there isn't a great deal in it, but for me Bradford are looking the better side at the moment and with home advantage they certainly should not be over 2/1.
Brightlingsea Regent v Cray Wanderers (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
I don't get the price here either with Cray looking huge at 17/10. Cray have only lost 2 games in the league all season and they are unbeaten in their last 6. The two defeats were against Folkeston and Enfield so two of the best teams in the division. They go to a Brightlingsea side who have picked just 1 point in their last 8 games and that came against a poor Wingate & Finchley side. That was also the only game they didn't concede at least 2 goals in during the spell without a victory. Cray should be odds on for me and at 17/10 look the best bet of the weekend.
Cheshunt v Carshalton (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
3rd time in a week I am having a bet on a Carshalton game. In the end they had a bit too much for Frome in the FA Trophy on Tuesday night although it turned into a bit of a goalfest. They have drawn their last 5 league games, but they really ought to be able to beat a struggling Cheshunt side who have lost their last 6 league games conceding 19 in the process. League wise this is the easiest fixture they have had since before the run of draws and they really ought to get back to winning ways in the league.
East Thurrock United v Leatherhead (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
Granted Leatherhead have had a fairly kind fixture list of late in the league, but they did beat Hornchurch in the run of 5 victories. They look a much improved side and although East Thurrock are a good team and are doing well since their relegation, I think they are over priced at 16/5 to win this. My feeling is there isn't much between these two sides which is why the price is an attractive one from a value perspective.
Redditch v Hitchin (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Redditch have only won two league games this season with both coming over August Bank Holiday weekend. They have had a run of 8 league defeats on the bounce and Hitchin could well make it 9 on Saturday. Hitchin are only 5 points better off than their hosts, but they are in much better form. Bizarrely their only defeat in their last 6 league games was against Leiston, but they then went and defeated Coalville, the only team to have beaten them in their last 10 games. Redditch have only scored 3 goals in their last 8 games as well so there is every chance 1 will be all that is needed to give Hitchin the 3 points.
Nuneaton v Stratford (BetVictor Southern Premier Central) & Bognor Regis v Merstham (BetVictor Isthmian Premier League)
More than happy to carry on opposing Stratford as I have done twice of late including last Saturday. Nuneaton are looking pretty good at the moment and have won 6 of their 9 home league games, indeed it is away from home where they have struggled. They ought to win as should Bognor who host Merstham. Bognor looked hopeless earlier in the season, but they have now won 6 of their last 7 league games including a 6-1 hammering of Margate on Tuesday night. Merstham look a poor side this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 games including the last 6. It really should be a home win and to get over 2/1 about the both Nuneaton and Bognor winning looks a good price to me.
Stockport 1pt @ 61/20 with Marathon
Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and BetVictor
Cray Wanderers 3pts @ 17/10 with Bet365
Carshalton 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
Leatherhead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
Hitchin 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365
Nuneaton/Bognor Regis 2pts @ 2/1 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in FA Cup Predictions > Nov 8th - 12th
I never understand why tipsters say they won't bet on the FA Cup. I love betting on the FA Cup as it offers the chance to land some lumpy prices as I have done over the years. The 1st Round is my favourite weekend of the season and hopefully I can make it a profitable one. I have 7 singles and a 5 team acca across the weekend.
Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle
Gloucester City might be my main team, but I have been going to Dulwich games for around 10 years now. At that point they were lucky to get 300 people through the turnstiles and now you can sometimes add a 0 on to that figure. This season alone they are averaging nearly 2000 for their league games and not surprisingly Friday night's match is a sell out. Fortunately I have been able to get hold of a ticket so will be there hopefully to witness a upset and Dulwich's first ever visit to the 2nd round. I think there is a fair chance that I might. On the face of it backing a team who haven't won a league game since August 24th two divisions below their opponents might not be wise, but Dulwich are nowhere near as bad as that stat suggests. I put them up in the last round when they beat Havant who are the best team in their division so that was no mean feat. Carlisle come into this having only won 2 away games in the league all season and they were both against teams below them in the table. Their win against Macclesfield last week was their first in 7 and given the troubles with them at the moment that is hardly proof they are in good form again. They will not fancy this one bit. Champion Hill is very compact so the crowd will be very close to the action add into the fact that the game is on the BBC so the Carlisle players will know the pressure is on them. Gavin Rose has always set Dulwich up to play football the right way and if they can be clinical in front of goal I am certain they will get the chances to win the game. I think 16/5 (Bet365 and Betfair) is just on the right side of value and hopefully they can get the weekend off to a profitable start.
Carshalton v Boston
An all Non-League tie here with BetVictor Isthmian Premier Carshalton hosting Natonal League North side Boston. I like the chances of there being an upset here as Carshalton have been hard to beat all season. They have lost just 3 times in the league and only one of those have come in their last 10 although they have drawn their last 5. They have already caused an upset in the previous round having beaten Dagenham & Redbridge so hosting a team from the level below should hold no fears for them. Boston have struggled on their travels in the league and they have only beaten Kettering and AFC Telford away from home. That Telford game was last week, but they clearly have issues away from home given they are unbeaten at home. I think at over 2/1 the home side are value to cause an upset.
Stourbridge v Eastleigh
I opposed Eastleigh last week given the amount of injuries they had and the fact Harrogate were in decent form, but Harrogate had a bit of a stinker and gifted them 3 of their 4 goals. Even though Stourbridge are two levels below it actually wouldn't surprise me if they give them a harder game than they had last week. Also Eastleigh have looked pretty poor on the road at times this season. Stourbridge have only played 11 league games so far given their cup run and they have lost just twice. Chances are they will be fighting it out for promotion again this season and their current position of 11th is a bit misleading. I think this is one game which will be much closer than the odds and leagues positions suggest.
Walsall v Darlington
The biggest price selection is Darlington and obviously backing a National League North side to win at a League 2 side should be a big price, but given Walsall's form at the moment Darlington might just be capable of causing an upset. They have lost 6 games on the bounce now and will be coming into this low on confidence. It was a bit disappointing Darlington couldn't beat a 10 man Hereford last week, but it did continue the unbeaten run and they are better than their league position suggests. A risky bet for sure, but I do think they are overpriced to win the game.
Gateshead v Oldham
Gateshead let me down last Saturday when under performing against Guiseley last week. They hadn't conceded at home for over nine hours and then duly defended badly and let in 3 in one game. They bounced straight back on Tuesday though beating Curzon 3-0. Granted Oldham are going to be at a very different level from Curzon, but they are coming into this game in shocking form and they clearly are one of the worst teams in League 2. They have only won once away all season and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Walsall and Morecombe which doesn't say an awful lot. As long as Gateshead don't defend like they did last week, and the evidence suggests that was a one off, then they have a real chance of causing an upset here in my view.
Macclesfield v Kingstonian
This game might not even go ahead because of the players strike and it is no surprise that some bookies have stopped betting on the game and that the price of the away side has come in from around 8/1. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post bets in their league this season and they have been frustrating as they haven't won as many matches as they ought to have done, but on their day they are a good side and given all that is going on at Macclesfield it looks a sporting play. Even if the players do get paid they aren't going to be in a good place and if they don't then there must be a chance that Macclesfield play the youth team just to get the game on. If that happens then that Kingstonian price will come in plenty more.
Wrexham v Rochdale
Rochdale are in the bottom half of League 1 and have lost their last 3 games, but I think they can beat Wrexham here. 2 of those defeats were against top of the table Ipswich and 4th place Oxford. I opposed Wrexham last week, but they beat Bromley thanks to a cracking goal and I do think Wrexham will improve under Dean Keates, but they still have a little way to go and I think they will struggle to beat a League 1 side at the moment. I am surprised that Rochdale are on the drift and they look a good price at odds against.
FA Cup Acca
I like 5 teams at odds on to win over the weekend. Solihull travel to Oxford City and they ought to have too much for them. Chorley have found life a struggle in the National League and they have started leaking goals again after keeping a few clean sheets. They travel to Mansfield and it would be a surprise if they could get anything out of it. Rotherham's away form is much better than their home form and they can prove to be too strong at Maidenhead. On Sunday Northampton should be more than capable of beating Chippenham and in one of the live games I can see Oxford United easily beating Hayes & Yeading. As an aside it wasn't that long ago I went to watch that game as a league match and now their are 4 levels between them!
Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
Carshalton 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon
Stourbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair
Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365
Gateshead 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
Kingstonian 1pt @ 21/4 with Bet365
Rochdale 2pts @ 13/10 with Betway
Solihull/Mansfield/Northampton/Oxford United/Rotherham 1pt acca @ 6.3/1 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 9th
Not that many league fixtures this weekend with the FA Cup and FA Trophy both taking place this weekend however I have a double and a single.
National League South Double
The last 2 weekends I have backed Hemel Hempstead and they didn't win either. They should have beaten Eastbourne, but the weather got in the way and then they disappointed against Concord last week. Saturday sees them play a Braintree team who aren't in a good shape at the moment. Their manager left in the week as they don't have any money and he claimed they had the smallest budget in the division. To be fair he is likely to be right given the team was mainly made up of players from leagues below. They started poorly then went on a good spell, but it has gone back to them being poor again. Without a manger it is hard to see them putting in a performance good enough to beat a strong Hemel side. Concord travel to Bath this weekend and I think they will go back to losing ways. As I mentioned last week Concord had a point to prove against Hemel and although I thought Hemel wouldn't want to lose, Concord excelled themselves. Things will be very different at a Bath side who are in good form at the moment and looked good when beating Bath last weekend. The double pays 2.2/1 with Marathon
Stratford Town v Coalville
Into Step 3 and the BetVictor Southern Premier Central and I am rather keen on Coalville here. Their last league on the 21st October saw them lose their first league game of the season to Hitchin, but they obviously have been playing well and beat Bromsgrove Sporting in the league cup on Tuesday night. This looks a great chance to pick up 3 points against a struggling Stratford Town side. I tipped Tamworth to beat them last month and they lost 3-1. Then in their next league game last Saturday they lost 6-0 to Peterborough Sports. Their only two wins in their last 9 league games came against Leiston and Alvechurch so that doesn't say much. They did draw against them in the reverse fixture in mid September, but Stratford look a lot weaker now and Coalville should take advantage. It seems quite a few bookies have missed the fact this game is on and I have only seen Marathon and Bet365 with odds, but the away side look a good bet.
Bath/Hemel Hempstead 2pts double @ 2.2/1 with Marathon
Coalville 2.5pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > November 2nd
I often mention about football betting being all about small margins and sometimes things will fall in your favour and sometimes they won't which was the case on Tuesday. Bromley should have beaten Stockport, but despite going close a few times in the 2nd half they couldn't quite manage a goal. So a disappointing end to the month, but November has plenty to look forward to and I can't wait to get stuck into the FA Cup next weekend. First though we have a full set of league fixtures and 5 bets have caught my eye.
Wrexham v Bromley
Two teams who I put up ante-post for the National League face each other on Saturday and it would have been nice if it had been 1st v 2nd, instead its 22nd v 1st as Wrexham have had a disastrous season. Given the way the season has gone Wrexham fans will be especially frustrated that their season has gone so badly because before a ball was kicked it really looked a good opportunity for them to go and get promotion in a wide open division. Dean Keates needs to turn things around fast, but although he has seen them progress in the FA Cup and the Tunnock's Cup the league form continues to be disappointing and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 games. I'm sure Keates will turn them around, but this will be a really tough game for them and Bromley look a very big price to pick up 3 points. Wrexham have been well backed during Thursday (I'm guessing down to the Asian punters) and that has meant a decent drift on the away side. As I mention above Bromley should have won on Tuesday and they continue to look like a side who have every right to be challenging for the title.There is no reason for them to be as big as 13/5 and it is well worth taking.
Blyth Spartans v Farsley Celtic
I mentioned the about Blyth's improved form and they won that game against Curzon which they followed up with a really good 2-2 against Chester. They look a big price at home to Farsley. When I tipped Celtic up to beat Kidderminster a couple of weeks ago I mentioned that despite their good form they had a pretty kind fixture list. They then duly put in a poor performance in defeat. I think this game will be a lot closer than the bookies have it and at 13/5 I will take a chance on the home team continuing their improved form.
Darlington v Hereford
Another team in the North East who are improving are Darlington and they have won 3 on the bounce now including a 1-0 win when they hosted Kidderminster on Wednesday night. I fancy them to beat a Hereford side who aren't doing all that well under Russel Slade. They have won just 3 of their last nine games and only the win against Gateshead is of any value. They lost to Bradford Park Avenue and Southport in their last two games and Dalrington look the better team at the moment.
Gateshead v Guiseley
It is a North East special this week as I am also tipping up Gateshead who look a big price at odds against. They haven't played a league game since they beat Gloucester 1-0 on October 12th and they were completely dominant in that match. Indeed one Gloucester fan mentioned it could easily have been a 7-0 defeat. They have the FA Cup to look forward to next weekend, but I am sure they won't let that get in the way here especially as Guiseley aren't in good form at the moment. Just the one win in their last 6 games and they have lost their last 3 away games 3-1, 3-1 and 4-1. Gateshead look a big price at odds against.
Concord v Hemel Hempstead
I put up Hemel last week and they let the double down, but they should have won and the shocking weather last Saturday also had a part to play. This is an interesting game given the Hemel manager was in charge of Concord last season and he took a few players with him when he changed clubs as well. Not surprisingly given Concord reached the play-offs, Hemel are having a very good season and they are looking very strong as I pointed out last weekend. You can be certain the former Concord people now at Hemel will not be wanting to lose this one. Obviously that also gives Concord incentive as well, but they have dropped away after a good first month or so of the season and they have lost their last 5 league games. If this was a normal game I would have gone bigger on Hemel, but there is that slight difference to it so I am sticking to a point. Even so Hemel are the better team and have to be backed at current odds.
Bromley 1pt @ 27/10 with BetVictor
Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor
Darlington 1pt @ 67/50 with Marathon
Gateshead 3pts @ 109/100 with Marathon
Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 29th
A late winner from Ebbsfleet helped make it a profitable day on Saturday with Fylde also picking up 3 points. Hopefully I can end October on a good note especially as I have my first max bet of the season and there are 4 bets in total.
Bromley v Stockport
Bromley manager Neil Smith said after the 5-0 thumping of Halifax on Saturday that no one fancied them to be at the top of the table challenging for the title. He clearly didn't read my ante-post preview then! They showed how much strength in depth they have in the squad on Saturday as they had a couple of players missing but those coming in were more than up to the task and it was a superb performance especially in the 2nd half. They are very close to being even money and I think that is a hell of a bet. Their only defeat at home came against Barrow and their is no disgrace in that and apart from that they have been seeing off teams. I would have them around the 4/7 to beat a Stockport side who have struggled away from home all season. The win at Dover was only their 2nd away win all season and that doesn't say much because of Dover's terrible record at home. Also the winning goal, as good as it was, was a complete fluke and they also lost at York in the FA Cup. Going to Bromley is a going to be a much tougher test especially as it will be their 2nd long journey in 3 days for the part time County. In my view Betway's 19/20 looks a complete gift.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Barrow
Seems a bit harsh on Barrow to ask them to go to Torquay on Saturday and then to Dagenham on Tuesday, but that is what the fixture list has thrown up. Barrow's run of 7 wins came to an end on Saturday as Torquay beat them 4-2 although they weren't helped by the fact John Rooney was sent off for a handball which may not have been. Clearly they are a good side, but Dagenham are good as well and they have only lost once in their last ten. They have made themselves very hard to beat and won on Saturday beating Wrexham. I think what makes Dagenham value to win the game is the fact its a 2nd long trip for Barrow in such a short space of time and that they are hard to beat.
Dover v Eastleigh
I have to take on Dover at home. Stockport were a big price against them on Saturday, but I doubted Stockport's ability to win away from home. Dover duly lost at home again though and it is hard to see why they are such short priced favourites to win this. Dover aren't especially in good form either with just 2 wins in their last 9 games and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4. Eastleigh are solid if unspectacular and they showed that again on Saturday when drawing with Woking 1-1. That was their 5th draw in their last 10, but they have only lost 1 of those. They look in better shape than Dover at the moment, especially as Dover suffered more injuries on Saturday, and I would make them around 7/4-13/8 so for them to be as big as 61/25 that looks too big for me.
Sutton United v Halifax
To a certain extent I think I got away with the Ebbsfleet bet on Saturday as not only did they have to play with an outfield player in goal for the last 15 minutes, but Sutton were the better side in the 2nd half. I know it sounds daft saying that this looks a good opportunity for them to win again given they are bottom of the last 10 form table with just 1 win in that time, but I think it does. That improved performance on Saturday sets them up for this and Halifax have to travel to South London for the 2nd time in 3 days and for a part-time side that is going to be pretty tough, especially given the drubbing they got on Saturday. They aren't in the best of form either with no win in 3 in the league having drawn with Chorley and lost to Boreham Wood and they also lost to Harrogate in the FA Cup. This game just strikes me as one that could be one of those strange looking Tuesday night results on paper, but in theory there is hope for Sutton in my view and at 2/1 they look a spot of value.
Bromley 5pts @ 19/20 with Betway
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon
Eastleigh 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
Sutton 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway
tomcody reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 26th
A good night on Tuesday with Royston winning 4-0 at 3/1 and the Nap's Tamworth also landing the spoils. With the FA Trophy this weekend the only league games are in the 3 National League's and I have 6 bets.
Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde
I am not surprised Fylde made a change of manager a couple of weeks ago as things just haven't been right there this season after their play-off Final defeat in May. The thing is though they have a good squad that should be challenging at the right end of the table and I am going to take a chance on them on Saturday on the back of a hammering of Peterborough Sports on Saturday in the FA Cup. Danny Rowe hasn't done a great deal so far this season, but he scored a hat-trick on Saturday and that might well see him kick on now and start scoring goals in the league. To be fair to Boreham Wood they have been in decent nick winning 3 of their last 4 games, but Fylde for me are the better team and if Saturday has given them a massive confidence boost then I think they can win this.
Sutton United v Ebbsfleet United
Taking a bit of a flyer here as Ebbsfleet are bottom and have only won two league games, but they do seem to have improved since sacking Gary Hill. They lost 2-1 against Maidenhead in their only league game since, but it was an improved performance and then they beat Woking in a replay in the FA Cup on Tuesday night. The other reason for thinking they could get 3 points here is the fact Sutton are in poor form as well. In their last 10 games they have only picked up 1 more point than Ebbsfleet and they then got hammered 5-2 in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday night at Billericay. Granted they were a bit unlucky to not win the first game given it need a late goal from the keeper to send it to a replay, but Tuesday was especially poor. Coming off the back of the win Ebbsfleet might just give them edge here and I think they are worth taking a chance with.
Woking v Eastleigh
Given Woking haven't won since the final day of August it is amazing they are still as high in the table as they are, but they have picked up 6 draws in their following 9 games which has helped. Obviously that means the draw is a slight worry and if Eastleigh perform like they did when they lost at Fylde on BT Sport a month ago then they wont be winning this, but that is their only defeat away from home in their last 5 away league games. That loss is their only defeat in their last 9 away games as well. They have drawn half of the other 8 and they did cost me last week when only drawing at Welling, but I think they are over priced still to win the game. As mentioned above Woking lost their replay whereas Eastleigh had little trouble in getting past Welling at the 2nd attempt.
Curzon Ashton v Kettering
I took on Curzon in their last game and Blyth beat them 1-0 and that made it just one point in their last 9 league games now. They look the worst side in the division at the moment and although it might seem odd to want to back the bottom side to beat them that is exactly what I am doing. Kettering aren't great either, but getting Paul Cox in as manager is a huge coup given his track record and I am slightly surprised he has wanted to take on the job. This looks the perfect first game for him and the only way it could have been better is if it was a home tie. Even without Cox I would make these two the same sort of price so add Cox into the mix and the over 2/1 quotes look on the big side in my view
Farsley Celtic v Brackley
Obviously Farsley cost us on Tuesday night, but I did point out that their run of wins wasn't as good once you dug deeper than the bare facts suggested. They offered little against Kidderminster and although arriving to the ground late would not have helped, they couldn't cope with an improved Kidderminster side. Brackley are having another good season and performed with great credit in the FA Cup against Hartlepool last weekend despite losing 1-0. They have only won 2 of their 7 away league games this season and they came against Kidderminster (who had lost every home game at the time) and Curzon so it doesn't say a great deal. That is the concern for me, but they are a better side than Celtic so hopefully that will win the day. They have continued to be well backed since I put them up and clearly the Asian punters agree with me on this one, but I wouldn't want to chase the price down much more than it is as I think the value has almost gone now.
Hemel Hempstead v Eastbourne Borough/Wealdstone v Tonbridge Angels
I most admit Hemel are getting close to a price I would just have a single bet on as they bafflingly continue to drift. The only game Hemel have lost at home in the league this season was to Wealdstone and they had a few injuries at the time which didn't help matters. They are looking very strong this season and did very well to overcome Havant late on in their last game a couple of weeks ago. This week Eastbourne announced that they needed £40k desperately and that meant they let their manager go. One player has already left because of a need to slash the wage budget and they have only won 2 of their last 10 games. For me Hemel should be at least 4/6 so the 10/11 is big. Wealdstone lost in an FA Cup replay to Maidenhead, but they did well in the two games and were in front in the first game. The only game they haven't won in their last 10 league games was a 4-1 defeat to Havant and Tonbridge are nowhere near that level. Tonbridge did surprisingly beat Braintree 5-1 2 games ago, but the other 4 of their last 5 games have all been defeats. Wealdstone do look home bankers.
AFC Fylde 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
Ebbsfleet 1pt @ 47/20 with Marathon
Eastleigh 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Betfred
Kettering 1pt @ 58/25 with Marathon
Brackley 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor (price now gone 19/10 best currently)
Hemel/Wealdstone 2pts double @ 1.57/1 with Marathon
tomcody reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - September 30 - October 6
Dominic Thiem (-2.5) to beat Andy Murray at 1.81 with Pinnacle
Should be the end of Murray honestly, Thiem is a giant step up from Norrie and Murray shouldn't have the fitness to fight against one of the fittest players on the tour. Could be somewhat similar to the match with De Minaur from last week in many ways, but Thiem is obviously even better and (hopefully) isn't going to choke like Berretini did.
tomcody got a reaction from sammydubs in Champions League Predictions > Oct 1st & 2nd
I don't fancy Bayern at all against Tottenham. Spurs at home will be a tough nut to crack for Bavarian team by my opinion. I believe somehow Tottenham can even beat them as Bayern defence is a bit shaky for me. Well neither Tottenham defence is solid as a rock therefore maybe today a logical proposal for bet in this match would be BTTS and over 2,5 goals but odds are (put any indecent word you like here)... I like also Tottenham 1X as it looks somehow quite decent price. And please do not crusify me if Pochettino's squad will fail after 90 minutes...
tomcody got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Champions League Predictions > Oct 1st & 2nd
I don't fancy Bayern at all against Tottenham. Spurs at home will be a tough nut to crack for Bavarian team by my opinion. I believe somehow Tottenham can even beat them as Bayern defence is a bit shaky for me. Well neither Tottenham defence is solid as a rock therefore maybe today a logical proposal for bet in this match would be BTTS and over 2,5 goals but odds are (put any indecent word you like here)... I like also Tottenham 1X as it looks somehow quite decent price. And please do not crusify me if Pochettino's squad will fail after 90 minutes...