NoFear

@andrewcalo100 lines "I WILL NEVER IGNORE THE POWER OF THE ELO RATINGS AGAIN"  

Well it will be interesting to see the Leicester lineup today to see how serious they are actually taking the Palace game. Obviously UCL quarter-finals is massive for them and they're still in it. Wes Morgan is out which is a boost for Palace.
1.80 for Palace is not really juicy enough for me to get involved today, Leicester are a good team in good form and they can hurt you when they go full cavalier. It's true that Palace played with great confidence against Arsenal which is encouraging but just because we won 3-0 doesn't mean we're gonna roll over the next team that shows up, football doesn't follow that logic.
Palace seems to be the public bet of the day I hope it works out for everyone  but I am not getting involved as I think markets have priced this one correctly.
 
 

Two interesting developments after the midweek games.
Crystal Palace are going to beat Leicester. Leicester have a real chance in the Champions League, and will probably rest 5 players. Their focus is totally on next week. This game means nothing. They are safe from relegation, and have no motivation here. Leicester in the Champions League NEXT WEEK is their once in a lifetime shot !
 
Having watched the Anderlecht v Man United game on Thurs, I gotta say that Man United are just average. It's just unwatchable !
Everything is wrong. Tactics, intensity, desire, work-rate, players. Valencia must have gone down the right side 25 times, and stopped, turned, kicked the ball backwards 23 times. Fellaini just shuffles along, making these useless sideways passes 20 times a game. Ibrahimovic is so slow, like a petrol tanker in the days of sports cars. Does it help United to have a 35 year old leading the line, to the detriment of Martial and Rashford ? Does it really help to play Carrick when his days are also numbered ?
Which players are doing better than expected ? The whole team, from manager to players look slightly lost.  United underwhelm almost every  time they play.
A couple of interesting stats. In last 13 home league games in EPL Man United have the lowest goals per game average (total goals in game / # of games). Their average of 1.69 compares to the highest (Bournemouth 3.61). In 10 of 13 games United have scored 1 goal or less. Compare this to Liverpool who have scored 2 or more in 11 of 13 home games.
United have won 4 of these games. These include wins over  Watford, Sunderland, Middlesbrough (wow great stuff). Forget blaming the strikers. These stats indicate something is wrong with the style of play and the tactics ? Not once this season has Mourinho really gone after the opposition. Give it a go, get stuck in and beat them 5-2 !!! Sure beats the hell out of watching 1 shot at goal every 25 minutes.
I would be really surprised if United got anything against Chelsea. They are miles of the pace !  
Chelsea away win here  at odds of 2.95
 
 
 

They're absolutely no value though and the motivation is priced in. I honestly don't agree and I've seen countless times, teams that needed to win, were shorter odds than they should have been and absolutely collapse, so I'd be very very careful!

I remember a classic in regards to motivation. Norwich needed to win at Fulham to avoid relegation, were something ridiculous like 5/4 away from home and got absolutely spanked off the pitch, 5-0 - I'll never forget that and everyone and his mum were on Norwich because they "had to win"

I'm not so good a valuing markets that aren't 1X2 or AH. Best price at the time of writing this for BTTS (yes) is 1.68 so they're saying there's a 59.5% chance that both teams will score. I expect Palace to concede here as our defence is fairly makeshift atm. Can we score here? I really don't know. Arsenal are weird and inconsistent, who's gonna show up? 3rd game at the end of a 3 game week. I don't see much value in BTTS odds in this situation but don't let me put you off. If you feel you've got to go with it then go with it.

I'll be out on the sauce again tonight ofcourse but I managed to get on. 
I'll be backing Barney again this week. I don't see how Taylor is a favourite against Barney right now considering Barney has beat the best couple of players in the world over recent weeks. Taylor was 4-0 down over Klaasen and it was only Klaasens injury that set him back to let Phil back in.
I also fancy Wright and Anderson to both win without too much fuss so I'll be taking the handicaps in both. Not been impressed with Lewis and Chisnall not too much to play for and is far too inconsistent.
5pts Barney to beat P.Taylor 8/5 Betbright
2.5pts P.Wright -2.5 to beat Chisnall 11/10 Bet365
2.5pts G.Anderson -2.5 to beat Lewis 6/5 Bet365
 

Bundesliga II
 
Hannover vs Nurnberg
Hannover is the clear favorite for this game, Nurnberg had a good start but now finds itself stuck in the middle of the table. Have no chances of going up nor down so I think will lack motivation for winning such a tight game.
In the last 4 matches against top 5 teams in the league, Nurnberg form is 3 Losses and 1 Drawn.
In the opposite side, Hannover is fighting for the title, Had only 1 loss and on 2 drawns playing at home. 
 
I don't see a tendency on goals here, so I think the best Bet is on Hannover to win @ 1,61
Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg
I think borussia will take easy in this game because of the next games to come. In four days will face Bayern in Allianz Arena, and after that the semifinals for the Champions League.
Hamburg is trying to stay in Bundesliga I. I think Hamburg will not take risks in this game, they will probably try to go home with a drawn.
 
My bet for this game is Borussia Win + Under3.5 goals -> @ 2,37
Koln vs Frankfurt
For this game the two teams fight for a spot in the classification zone to Europa League. The two teams are having a similar season, Koln had a good start but it fall from his perfomance in the last games.
Frankfurt has failed to score in their last 3 games away, and in the last 7 games in bundesliga scored only once at home.
For this games I was inclined to go BTS, besides the recent form of the teams, but my bet will be Koln DNB @ 1,61
Post comment:
 
In the end was a good day, Also had a bet on BTS Bayern vs Hoffenheim, but lost that one.

Where did that come from?  I deffo didn't say that and i deffo didn't have £20,000 on us to win ...... it was hard enough sticking £10 on us to win lol!  
Have i been hacked? 

@IcongeneI ok I see it ,but It's in a three way handicap,still have to win with more then one .
 

You will find it under 'Points Finish' at any bookmaker @NoFear
Top 10 is same as Points Finish

" Not much separates the two teams in the league table, but surely , for once, well prepared Celta side are the better side.
Celta have played so many games this season and they have mostly been very successful. They went far in the Spanish cup and now they are in the Europa League quarter final.
They all fear Celta in Spain, they know their potential in a single game.
John Guidetti could not play for Sweden during the international break and it remains to be seen if he will be ready for this game, or not.
After some negative results Las Palmas were finally able to win a game again, this time at home to ten man Villarreal 1-0.
Their defender M Lemos will be suspended for this match.
I expect an entertaining affair, as both sides prefer playing attacking football. Although Las Palmas are constantly losing their away fixtures (1-3-9) they keep going for wins on their travels and this will work fine for Celta."
Home winner, both to score and Over game....

I'll keep you updated on William Hill 
EDIT: INTER 1-2 SAMPDORIA 
And William Hill paid me out at 1.83 

Yeah, starting to drift for some reason. Was 1.59 on asian bookie 188bet but 1.63 on 188bet now. 

thanks mate. Thats is a definite arb/error. Appreciate the analysis though. just wanted to get on the price. Wont be risking a ban here but even at 1.59, this bets seems just about value. 

Check WilliamHill. 1.83

leeds have taken a confidence knock in loss against reading and somehow i think they won't bounce back so quickly. i must oppose them here.
i am liking wigan to beat ipswich. ipswich can't win 8 draws in 10 games is ridiculous. i don't know what tactics they are playing but i am pretty sure they are not trying to win games. wigan should not be in relegation zone. they very good against newcastle even though lost. they will beat ipswich
i'd like to back fulham but it's far from certain in my head. they will be happy to in play offs but i just fear they will concede and that always brings a possibility of draw
 
bristol city, blackburn, nottingham forest have a lot to play for. they will all be under pressure to get a results

Allez Nantes! 
Came home too late, so I finished round with 2 wins and 1 half lost pick (Guingamp -0,5, Lorient tt over 1,25 and Nantes-Angers over) . Angers was reaaaally really poor today. They have no chance against Monaco next week.
p.s. What the hell is happening to Montpellier!? 

Maguire's in after all. I should know better than to trust Oxford's own website.

Thanks for the mention, but I was way off this weekend.
Sunderland must really rue the day Allardyce became England manager. Trade him in and land up with an overpaid, underskilled manager like David Moyes. Clueless in terms of motivating, or getting a team fired up. The Man United job proved to be way to big for him, but he has shown no ability in the two posts after that. In what kind of sick world does a decent, yet hopelessly out of his depth, man earn 9 million pounds for 8 months work. How F___d up is this world ?  NEWCASTLE will have the last laugh, as they pass SUNDERLAND going in the other direction. I don't think that Sunderland will find an automatic promotion spot next season. In Moyes they have a lead balloon, that could anchor them to the Championship for a few seasons to come...
Jose Mourinho made me laugh today. Every time I see that bushy haired octopus (Fellaini), in the starting line-up, I know they are doomed. Can you name a worse player that played so many games for Man United ? Bebe, or maybe Mark Bosnic ? Fellani just has nothing.  No pace. No Skill. No engine. No clue. 
He is Man United's most consistent player this season. Consistently useless on all levels.
Then Mourinho hauls his only hope of breaking WBA down (Mikatarian) off. WTF is that ? Surely you don't need to play 2 holding midfielders against an average team like WBA, at home ?  What exactly is plan - B ? Is there a plan B ? 
How many goals have United scored from the 500 crosses they have made this season ?  Maybe 5 .... no more than 8. What kind of style is playing at zero speed, shipping the ball sideways, and aimlessly crossing the ball. This style of play is brutal, and boring and fkg dreadful.
Then he makes some ridic remark about how only one team wanted to play. Get real, Fergie had to deal with that for 20 years and he figured out how. Go and ask him for a lesson !!!
 
 
 

Veria has many problems, players are unpaid and this week they did abstain from training. In such a match can not say and write a lot, I will follow the seat and motivation and will suggest the ace
FC LEVADIAKOS vs VEROIA FC @@ FC LEVADIAKOS, odds 1.80
PAS home has only received six goals in 12 games, which accepts one goal every two games. In total has 17 to 25 under 2,5 and 9 to 12 under 2,5 inside seat and 6 to 8 under 2,5 in most recent games. Xanthi total has 17 to 25 under 2,5 and 7 to 12 under 2,5 in home. Both teams are pretty tough and hardly accept the goal, so I'll go with the under 2,5
PAS GIANNINA vs A.O XANTHI @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.44

for Saturday
Liverpool v Everton 12.30 kick off backing Everton @ 23/5 unibet (27/5 available marathon bet)
Hull v West Ham 3pm kick off backing Hull @ 31/20 unibet (best price about)
 
two evening games
Sassoula v Lazio 5pm kick off backing Sassoula @ 51/20 unibet
Southampton v  Bournmouth backing  Bournmouth @ 19/10 unibet  (27/5 available marathon bet)
i have done a few small multi bets but as stated earlyer only singles for this thread(not to myself open up a marathon bet account )
a note for Harry Rag who i know is following this,Sassoula went 2..7 up on corners last game before amazingly loseing 11..7 so if spread betting add a bit of insurance if they do manage to go 2 or 3 corners ahead :-)

Nailed one of those early doors. Love getting the business done early. That's the risk with early kick off bets. Can either kill your afternoon bets or add some extra fire to them. I'm confident you've picked well for the Man Utd game too.
@NoFear, definitely an April Fool's joke. Cardiff City released a statement claiming we'd secured a stadium sponsor for a multi-million pound deal with Sony. Fooled everyone because Sony were rumoured to be interested and have previously held corporate sponsorship before.

Sky Bet

Rosario Central vs Tigre
Hosts' expectations of fighting for the title were scuttled with their poor performance in the first phase of the championship, meaning they will only seek to rebuild in this phase and expect to be more competitive next season. Coach Chacho Coudet paid the price for that poor performance and was replaced by Uruguayan Paulo Montero. They come from a morale-boosting 1-0 away win against Quilmes, a result that has further raised expectations for winning today's match because the team also has to atone for the previous 1-0 home loss to Godoy Cruz. The new coach is still discovering his best eleven; but the fans expect three points from this match.
The visitors are in an unstable situation after Coach Pedro Troglio resigned, following two consecutive defeats in the first two matches of this phase. Pepe Castro will stand in for this match but has not had much time to change things. Home win
Bet won: Rosario Central 1-0 Tigre