NoFear

The National League have decreed that Concord will not be allowed to participate in the play-offs - hence the seemingly big price.

i had a strange dream about this particular match and toulouse won 2-4. maybe it was nothing

I will try 0:0 at 17/1 betfair in tottenham game. Its 5 game for them in 15 days and brighton stopped wolves from scoring in their last game. worth a punt

Unlucky on the 0-0 was a great call.

I will try 0:0 at 17/1 betfair in tottenham game. Its 5 game for them in 15 days and brighton stopped wolves from scoring in their last game. worth a punt

dawson starts for Wednesday-i'll try a buy of 1st half goals at 1.2 (sporting index)

man city has advantage here as they are hosts and kane will not feature for tottenham but first leg showed tottenham very capable matching the intensity of pep guardiola side but nonetheless man city will win tonight but there will be lots of goals. man city will undoubtedly press tottenham and try to outsource them but tottenham will have to play because if they sit back it's just going to invite man city onto them so we may see open scoring match and possibly 4 or 5 goals.

I go off the prices available. If they are going to offer somebody like Russell prices of 5/6/7/8 to 1 then that is value because he is the power scorer in that team. 
Do I think they are a lottery? sometimes, ofcourse. Are they spot on with odds, no. There are players that fail every game, being an opener and yet they are favourite each time.
one thing i do think though, is these questions will come up after a couple of losers, and never with multiple winners. Also, it's very easier to oppose 6 7 8 to ones and notso odds on shots..

@eros I've given you enough chances, consider this to be the final warning. I've told you enough times that we don't accept criticism that isn't constructive here and yet, you didn't even recognize your fault after I deleted your yesterday's post. You post picks with zero explanations and yet dare to speak against others who actually write something. I don't care that you don't have any time, because you apparently do have enough time to post here and aggravate others. While I might not agree with @vvararu thoughts on what's value, I do appreciate that he/she takes some time and explains the picks.

Opole strikes again with Ocleppo today. If somebody doesn't cage him up .. He's going to tear down the betting walls, and we'll be back to playing chinese checkers for coins on the street. 

hello,
my thoughts;
- sixes/4s should have a lot of value, some bookies have problems getting them right (sportsbet for example). Earlier on we had bets almost hitting the numbers in just the first innings.
- top batsmen has some value, teams might appear stacked with stars but if you pick 2 out of the top order / middle+ order (dre..) consistent ones you can hit it fairly often..
obv picking 2 lowers potential earnings..
head 2 head ive dropped that market, even during live games. retarded.
- over/under runs you can pick some with in plays

Awful tip on the McManus match and 10pts bet. Apoligies for this. Underestimated how crap McManus truly is.

You should just post them. Always interesting to see if someone fancy opposing the fave that you’ve picked.

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.67 with William Hill
I'm psychologically afraid of this bet given how poorly I usually tip my fellow Czechs, but I did well with Vesely today and I hope to do well with Pliskova tomorrow, although I'm going to go against her. Kuznetsova has exactly the type of grit that's required to frustrate Pliskova and she's still somewhat above her in terms of quality as well imo.

Sveta easily  big achievement as usual by Sveta to down Timea in Lugano 

some calls Fader. Nice one

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Timea Bacsinszky at 2.63 with Betfair
Sveta in a 50/50 match like this where the best fighter comes through I think I trust Sveta to battle her way through this. Sveta owns this matchup so far with 4-0 on hardcourt and losing only one set. With Svetas battle qualities the odds look wrong here. It should be 50/50 pricing so 2.63 has to be taken. I honestly don't see what makes Timea the favourite because you can't make her favourite against a player like Sveta only because she's got home advantage.

Nice, that's 4 batsman bets in a row for this thread.
Mumbai Indians Vs Kings.
Mumbai Indians 1 win and 1 loss at home this season. Kings 1 win and 2 losses away from home. Kings look like abit of value today. They won this fixture at home and although Mumbai won this fixture at the Wankhede, it was only by a few runs. I like the chances of Rahul as top batsman again and also going to take a little outside chance on Pollard as top batsman for Mumbai.
4pts Kings to beat Mumbai Indians 5/4 betvictor
2.5pts L.Rahul (Top Kings batsman) 12/5 bet365
1pt K.Pollard (Top MI batsman) 8/1 bet365

Could have been such a good day. I'm kicking myself because I had Steadman to beat Selby planned to tip but I looked at Steadman's form and I thought I would wait for the round. 7/1 ugh
Anyway, a profitable day which would have been better if Maflin could win at 4-2 up and lost on a decider. Baird didn't turn and Williams should be embarrassed by that result. One to lay.
Going to take a look for tomorrow's matches. Outrights looking decent. Bingham winning 6-0. Gilbert through 6-4. Worried about Hawkins against Ning tomorrow. Think he has a game there.
 

On second thoughts, upgraded to permanent ban. Betfair forum awaits you.

I wouldn't get too down about it @eros Two losers, much like two winners, doesn't really mean anything. If you enjoy looking at tennis matches and trying to work out what will happen then carry on with it and see whether you've made or lost money after a few hundred bets. That will give you an idea about whether you're better at judging outcomes than the market and if it turns out you aren't but you've only lost a little but you still enjoy it then carry on anyway. It's not always about making money, if you get enjoyment out of it then it's no different than paying for a gym membership for example - you pay for your membership and you get health benefits out of it. If betting on tennis costs you money then you're 'paying' for it, but if you enjoy it and if the losses are acceptable for you then it doesn't matter 

Sometimes not having a bet can be just as good as winning bet and not backing Always On The Run at odds on turned out to be a good move. It is rare to get a truly run race when there are only 3 runners, but he set a good clip and Ravished ran out a good winner in the end. It was some improvement from his recent form to win his point prior to Wetherby and this was a step up again. It will be interesting to see where they go with him next, but he should add to this win at the right level.
Onto Ascot's race today and they have actually increased the trip from 2m5f to 3m. Virak is the odds on favourite and he should win this. He won two Hunter Chases last year at Ludlow and then the Walrus at Haydock. He then ran down the field at Cheltenham before disappointing at Newton Abbot although he isn't the first horse to now show his form after running in the Foxhunter. He has gone to Rose Loxton this season and he has easily won 3 points. I saw the first of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and he had Arthur's Secret back in 3rd. Now Arthur's has improved since then and needed the run that day, but it is still good form. He might prefer a little bit of cut in the ground, but the point wins have been on good ground this term so it shouldn't be an issue and his form is a cut above the rest for me.
In Arrears didn't beat much in the end at Exeter, but she was impressive in doing so. She is clearly progressing nicely and I under estimated her ahead of the Exeter race. She looks the most likely to follow the favourite home.
If Queen Olivia could repeat the close 2nd to Road To Rome on her seasonal debut then she comes right into this, but the issue is she has gone backwards now. She was a well beaten 3rd behind Arthur's Secret although that wasn't a bad run, but she was then pulled up at Parham. I would imagine there was an issue that day because it was too bad to be true and if she bounces back then she isn't out of this.
Silvergrove was well beaten on his first start for 22 months at Fakenham and there is every chance he will come on for that, but I didn't see enough in that run for me to want to think he has a chance in this. Flaming Charmer was sold for 18k in December and did win at Chepstow off 121 the month before, but he was poor over 3m at Wincanton and he has never won over this far. Every chance he will need this as well against fit rivals.
Virak should win, but the price isn't exactly exciting so I will take a couple of forecasts. I don't fancy Silvergrove or Flying Charmer so I can rule them out. I was initially going to leave Queen Olivia out as she looks to be going backwards after a good run, but even the Ludlow 3rd could well be good enough to finish 2nd and the Parham run was too bad to be true so I will save on her. In Arrears though looks progressive even if the Exeter race wasn't strong and she is most likely to finish 2nd.
Virak to beat In Arrears 1pt fc
Virak to beat Queen Olivia 0.5pts fc

Interesting comment. Yeah not been overly consistent this season sadly but sometimes it goes like that. Last two seasons have been very strong but this season has been tougher for sure. Strange because on the Hunter Chase front it’s been winner after winner but I have always said that making a profit on football is much harder than doing it on horse racing

I would like to mention that Wan Bisaka and Zaha are questionable for the match,because Zaha traveled with injury on international break and other side Wan Bisaka injured on U21 international break so I would suggest that Crystal Palace could get draw or maybe lost because they have problem with building an attack,they are  typical team that play on counter attack or wait some mistake at guest defense

T20th
Chance of a top 10 until a double bogey on 17th hole in the final round