Blazing Bailey

We shall be running a tipsters competition for the Cheltenham Festival starting on March 15th The winner and two runners up will receive cash prizes.
 Please find all the rules below. I will put up the selection threads each day and the table each evening. Anyone wanting to enter in advance due to lack of access let me know via PM. No need to register, just turn up on the day
 
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the 4 days at Cheltenham Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over 4 days wins £50 cash via Skrill (follow link to sign up) 2 x Runner Up wins £25 via >Skrill. No edits allowed in selection posts No losses incurred for losers or Non Runners Replacement selections for NR's can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter all 4 days (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leaderboard posted each evening All welcome 
 
No need to register

Cheers BH
looks like I might be the only person who's posted every day...........
blimey.........I need to get a life ........

Final Table
Well done to Jimmy who swerved all of the bullets in the last race to hold on to the richly deserved win
Arsenalfh, Jediknight and Steve75 collect the place money with excellent totals.
Prizes:
£80 Jimmy2Shoes
£40: Arsenalfh
£20: Jediknight
£10: Steve75
Cup £30: Gbettle 
Winners to notify Skrill details to;
[email protected]
 
Table

 
From next month the following bookies are allowed;
 

 
Thanks for the continued support

another preview that a friend let me share
Panel included David Mullins, Johnny Burke, Ollie Murphy (head lad at Elliott's)

Supreme: 
DM: Was riding him earlier in year, is the real deal, keen at Punchestown last time, better ground and better race to suit.

JB: Huge outside chance in Supasundae, getting the hang of jumping. Min class apart.

OM: Like tombstone a lot on him at big prices, unlucky at Christmas, heard Min best since the fly, but thought he got worked up at Punchestown last time could beat himself. Altior straight forward, main threat.

Arkle:
JB: Can't beat Douvan, broke SJ heart at Christas, can't confirm SJ will go to Arkle but can't really step up to JLT trip for first time at festival. SJ could be closer on better ground couldn't go with Douvan on heavy last time.
DM: Thinks SJ could put it up to Douvan on better ground, said anyone backing Tell Us More take fallers insurance.
OM: Game Changer needs good ground has entry in grand annual but probably goes Arkle as it'll cut up.

Champion:
DM: NC to make it, hard to know where AP fits in, would pick NC as doesn't know where AP fits in race.
JB: AP the one to beat, ruby to use stamina take off in front. If he could pick one would be on IT, had a break and better ground and fresheness will bring improvement. Said anyone backing AP watch out if its sunny in case of shadows.
OM: Like IT, AP too keen, likes NC too but no strong opinion as no entry.

Mares:
DM: If AP goes champion VVM wins, can't see it beat. Ballychorus big one at a price with ew claims.

4m:
DM: RDF takes a lot of beating, jumps, stays, PA lacks a gear but might be race for him, could bring best out.
OM: NE jumps well and stays well but quirky but wouldnt put you off. Lined up for race all season, will like decent ground.
JB: Minnello Rock = Certainty, given "kind" ride to say the least last day and runs as a winner without a penalty.

3m hcap ch:
PP rep: Said Jonjo must have something for it if MR doesnt run as didn't go up in handicap after 2nd the weekend.
JB: Shanahans Turn runs, big chance if back to form.

Neptune:
DM: LD should be jfav with YW. Still gives Danny stick for being beat in a maiden on it. Beat BER who is shorter he wont go there. Busiest horse all summer forgotten about now. 95% sure he runs.
JB: at a price ATP, vigil form boost the weekend. YW visually impressive happy to take on.
OM: YW banker on day 2. doubtful general principal runs but out weekend and should win.

CC:
DM: UDS vulnerable if someone (ST) gets to first before him, will sulk. Would love to be on ST.
JB: UDS wins if stands. ST & UDS to take off break SS heart. Hes on SG and will ride to pick up pieces. Runs well fresh, better ground a plus.
OM: No entries, big negative DB, Nichols aint been champ for running horses unfit. SS doesnt give same vibe.

RSA:
OM: NMH straight forward, stays, not flash. MOT a negative as didnt run when engaged twice. Wouldnt swap NMH. By presenting so better ground a plus.
DM: Can't have MOT. Between NMH & RDF. NMH = Don Poli 2.0.
JB: 2 horse race between NMH MOT, will give him a race.

Bumper:
DM: Castello Sforza nice horse being backed, BG prob be on.
JB: Good vibes about Battleford. Keep eye on Aspen.
OM: No real good bumper horses at GE's. Gigginstown dont like race so.
*managed to catch DM at bar, asked about Augusta Kate, said theyre thinking of switching from Sandown to Cheltenham, pick of Willie's. Mare's allowance, so PM can't do weight ruby will ride. One he would be on if had a choice.

JLT: 
DM: Rode SH this morning over whatever was wrong at Donnie last ime.
JB: Trip wont bother SJ cant guarantee he will run.
OM: Big Zabanna fan, thinks hed be half price if trained by WM/GE.

Ryanair
JB: Smashing def goes, loves heavy, handles good.

WH:
All: Thistlecrack class apart
OM: POS good ew on bad ground.
DM: LC 2 time G1 winner, come on massively for run, and trip and better ground and pace, thats 4 things that'll improve him.

Mares Nv:
All like Limini.
JB: Jespers Dream the value.
DM: Cant see past Limini, improve for better ground, jumps ok.

Triumph:
Average bunch all said would forgive AG.
DM: said danny rode sensible last day, likes AJ. Doesnt know if FP best of willies just got best ride.
JB: Keep beating one and other.

AB:
DM: Gangster more impressive beating a horse than Bellshill, confident he'll stay.
JB: Cornered him and said he can't see past BH, has it all and cant get passed, sets standard. Between SV n BH.
OM: SV come on for better ground.

GC:
OM: Everything went wrong in KG for DC, still in shout 2 out. Thinks hed have won. big DA fan, if DP misses one beat race over. Cant have Vautour.
JB: If DC was ridden like V in KG wouldnt have been like Kauto Star's win. Like DA & DP. VL got into deceiving position last time went too hard in front.
DM: Likes DC. Said last race was confidence boost. Excited to ride VL.

Others:
OM: Keep an eye on Jet Stream Jack off 134. Diamond King, Diamond King, Diamond King. Russell to ride. Desoto County bad ride last time off Kennedy. Our Father, goes well fresh, Kim muir, codd to ride. Campeador (FW) face lit up, didn't want to say anything as JP horse, heard from MC after he got in trouble for time cause of causes few years back, JP wasnt happy. The less he said the more confident you felt. Squouateor also mentioned not sure what race.
JB: Sizing Codelco in GA. Aupcharlie in FH (Codd to ride).
DM: Feather Player (I think) beat Diamond king last time good shout in county.

3 winners and a nice place, happy-ish with that 

Great shout BH, shame they didnt finish the other way around!

1.50 Ascot: Reynoldstown Novice Chase
 
Verdict:
I’m keen on Minella Rocco at the prices and think one day he will show us what he is made of over fences. He may leave that for Cheltenham where he’s entered for both the National Hunt Chase and the RSA. Of the top three in the market I think Drumacoo needs to repeat his debut effort and looks a bit skinny to me. Vyta Du Roc has the best hurdling form and for whatever reason he didn’t show up at Doncaster last time. He has it to prove now but is the value bet in my eyes over his market rivals on this occasion.
Selections:
Minella Rocco 14/1 Skybet
Vyta Du Roc 3/1 Paddy Power
 

I think the difference there was that the winner was more battle hardened.

Yeh I would agree with all of them but would say that Venetia's are a but like Jonjo's but they are better on bad ground instead. 
For me, Pipes yard has been going down steadily over the last couple of years and his best horses haven't fired for a long time. 
Donald Mccain is another trainer I would almost certainly avoid too albeit he looks to be starting to get a grip again. 

I refuse to get involved anymore in Anti Post betting, reason being i have a kitchen drawer full of various burns creams, it took almost 30 years for the penny to drop, but it did drop.
It's just not worth the risk, anything can happen OFF the course.

Paid £91 Thankfully was on the right fav in the 1st leg after mine was a NR, got 2 in the last leg for 2 winning lines and the Nap hosed up for a change

2.10 Exe - Bound Hill - EW at 50/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdle, heavy ground, 18.5 furlongs
Only 3 appear to be fancied here so it might be worth taking an EW chance on one of the outsiders
My selection ran OK on hurdles debut last time. Although well beaten he stuck to his task and ran on at the finish. The trip that day looked a bit sharp for him and he should be suited by this stamina test, a testing track, a couple of extra furlongs, heavier ground
Of the 3 fancied ones.....
Brelan D'as makes his British debut and carries a penalty for winning a race in France about 4 months ago. He looks pretty good but Nicholls runners can need a run after a break and we don't know how he's settled in, if he'll act on heavy ground
Rolling Dylan was just beaten on the nod last time so is almost a winner without a penalty. But he was hard driven on heavy ground and that could have taken a toll on him. Had 4 weeks to recover
Overturn Express was going Ok when he fell 2 out in a race won by Yanworth, the hottest novice hurdler in the UK. However he was begiining to tire when he fell so I'm not sure this stiffer test of stamina will suit, though he could be the class horse in the field
I'm hoping 2 or 3 of them flop leaving places for my horse to run in to !

Betfair Hurdle
 
Verdict:
Lots in with a chance as you would expect, I’m going with the trends and supporting a couple of 5yo’s who are rated below 140. The first is Zarib from the Dan Skelton yard, he was 4th at Wincanton in good company before running on when it was all too late last time out at Ascot. This track will suit better and is a C/D winner and I think he’s still well handicapped on 134. I saw Agrapart win easily at Aintree in December and was really impressed by the way he handled the very soft ground that day. His third in the Tolworth could turn out to be a fair run and is nicely handicapped on that run. I respect the chances of Blazer if he turns up so soon after his win last week but is poor value at the moment.
Selections:
Zarib EW 20/1Skybet
Agrapart EW 25/1 Bet365
 

Great shout fellas.

Jeezus Jimmy, give the rest of us a chance!

Hope no one minds but thought it might be a good idea to open a general chat thread where we could put up anything within reason regarding the festival,like stats trends,whispers ect:
 
I was sent an email containing a pdf for cheltenham,In the email it states that its 100% free to share with others,The link is below
 
http://festivaltrends.co.uk/chelt2016/bunchoffivers.pdf

Good point and I just went and watched that race back. A couple of horses tried to take him on early but couldn't cope and by the time he was turning away from the cheap seats he was comfortably on his own in the lead. To me he seems to just run his own race regardless of who comes alongside.
 
 
Yeh that's the conundrum in that will Special Tiara pose more of a threat than any of those from last year which he realistically should. The two things I would add to the debate are that even if it was a poor Arkle last year, it is probably as almost as bad of a Champion Chase this year. Last years was bad too and Special Tiara had the run of the race but still got beaten by Dodging Bullets and more worryingly Somersby. Gods Own does jump to the right some of the time but two of his best performances (at least on ratings) have come at Cheltenham and Aintree.
I would definitely agree that UDS is better on soft ground however it was pretty quick on day 1 of last seasons festival (good or possibly better) and it didnt seem to bother him at all. He jumped with zest, travelled great and powered up the hill so its not conclusive.
In regards to the Sandown run, looking back at the replay, I didnt think that Special Tiara jumped as well when Sire De Grugy took him on. Normally Special Tiara doesnt touch a twig but he was untidy at a couple and outjumped by Sire De Grugy. Furthermore he was also taken on in the Champion Chase the year before and beaten more readily.
On the evidence we have, I believe that Special Tiara will be more affected than Un De Sceaux.
 
 

Traffic Fluide will miss the race having suffered a setback in preparation for this weekend’s Game Spirit Chase at Newbury.

Well that makes him more interesting to me, because his form on better ground isn't as good as his form on soft however he has had less opportunity to show his best form on better ground.
You make a good point about running styles as I completely agree that Nicholls Canyon would be best from the front (I can't underestimate how gutted I was when he took a lead in last year's Neptune) but like you say it won't happen and if he stayed alongside Faugheen I again think it would tee things up for a closer to pick up the pieces once more. 

@Blazing Bailey
Identity Thief travels like a horse who will appreciate quicker ground I think.
I never liked Faugheen and thought he was beating nothing so I had Nichols Canyon backed e/w from the start of the season. I thought he would be dodgy under pressure but he really swatted aside Nichols Canyon the last day when he came upsides at the 2nd last. It was a fantastic display but you could argue Nichols Canyon was still feeling his run at Christmas and Arctic Fire also scoped bad at Christmas so he also possibly wasn't at his best. I also didn't like the way Townend never even attempted to make the running when Nichols Canyon clearly is a horse who jumps superbly and can put his rivals under pressure from the front.
I think I put it up in the Cheltenham chat thread but I also backed Identity Thief e/w after the Ryanair at Christmas. He traveled all over Nichols Canyon and will appreciate the sounder surface more than him. Also he's massively progressive having only hitting the track for the first time just over a year ago and could well improve past him.
I don't think Faugheen really has a chance of being beaten unless Nichols Canyon makes the running like he did in the Morgiana. Unfortunately the yard won't allow the pair to fight for the lead and Nichols Canyon will likely be forced to track Faugheen which clearly doesn't suit the horse when he jumps so well from the front. My win bets aren't looking good but I think Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief are the two next best and hopefully will fill the places. With the potential for more improvement Identity Thief still looks a good e/w bet or a nice price in the w/o Faugheen market.

Nice one mate, welcome back