Blazing Bailey

Yeah ..have to admit i love getting a big price but ive been burned a few times in recent weeks and had enough now ....ill wait til night before or nrnb ....and yes mullins horses have become unbackable now ....he and other trainers had numerous horses entered for 3-4 races ....what can you do with that ??....makes life very difficult from a punting perspective unless as was stated above you use it to your  advantage and try and speculate where he wont run and youll prob get a better price on another horse....but chelt fest will always be a minefield ...its fab to watch but no matter how much reparation you have or form lines you read ...everyone  is there to win so your left scratching your head half the time ....just a funny  ol game 

Thats a nice result winner and a third so about 100 pts returned to carry over to next week ....shot at the biggy !!!

Unlucky Blue  Come on lift that head, you'll be back another day 
Well done Bailey 

Well Done Blazing Bailey Good Luck in Final
15:55 Carlisle : Scotswell @ 16/1 bet365 e/w thanks

Well done winners!
Appreciate the work as always BH!

Kempton 3.15 - Might Bite 10/1 Hills

Firebird flyer.  99.34
red devil lads 99.28
cogry.   99.25
cogry looks a decent ew bet here but im not sure hes good enough to win a race of this calibre so value pushes me to look elsewhere ...firebird flyer oozes class so no worries there ...might be a touch high in weights but his class will be a big weapon here ...red devil lads has a nice weight and some good form if he can get round ...thats a big if ...but is more than capable of winning thisif getting around which he does sometimes ..lol
Firebird flyer 5 ptsew 14/1 bet365
red devil lads 5 pts ew 25/1 bet365
if non runner cogry ew 14/1

Kemp 2.05 - Valhalla - ew at 25/1 bog wm hill
Novice hurdler
With Authorised Too a NR there's only 3 here in single figures in the market so going for one of the outsiders you need fingers crossed a bit that one or two of them underperform. A couple of them have penalties, a couple haven't run for 3/4 months, and a couple have RPR form that is only a couple of pounds better than my selection.........so there's a hope ! Plus of course there's the usual chaos and bad luck to figure in
My selection won a Point very impressively on good ground last September. Has shown promise in 2 hurdle runs but probably not suited by soft ground. Reappears now that the ground had got better and hopefully can fulfill some of his promise. Does look to be a bit of a stayer so it would help if they went quickly and he could be running on past tiring horses at the finish

A cracking finish to this years competition!
Well done to The Finster who holds on in a photo-finish
JJG and Pankysmooch grab the runners-up prizes
Can all 3 prize winners send their Skrill details plus PL name and prize being claimed to;
[email protected]
 
Many thanks for the support;


 

Kempton 3.15 Townshend @ 3/1 888sports win
Newcastle  4.00 Another Mattie @ 8/1 betvictor e/w
Uttoxeter  4.10 Shotgun Paddy @ 14/1 betvictor e/w
res
Newcastle  2.50 Oscar Lateen @ 9/2 betvictor win
Kempton 3.50 Cernunnos @ 6/1 betvictor e/w
Kempton 4.25 Ballyhenry @ 11/4 bet365 win
Good Luck Blazing Bailiey

Following on from my previous post I have just checked the markets again and I think 8/1 with Hills for Tea In Transvaal without both Limini and Smart Talk is very big.

Very competitive race and there's 3 I like. Bookies going 5 places so I'm not worried about throwing a few darts at this.
First one I like is Mall Dini. Placed in two really good handicaps in Ireland and improving. His latest 3rd looked like one of the hottest handicaps on both sides of the sea and it's already working out well. He stumbled coming down the straight and didn't seem to have the pace for 2m 4f so stepping back up to 3m should suit.
Another one I like is Warrior's Tale. Put in a personal best on his debut over fences but flopped next time when Nicholl's weren't going well. He returned to hurdles when 2nd to Cup Final who is one of the favourites for this and traveled like the winner the whole way around. They might just restrain him a bit more as the yard have suggested changing tactics which might bring more improvement. That being said he's still lightly raced and is the pick of stable jockey Sam Twiston Davies so he should go well at a price.
The last one I like is Rolling Maul. He was balloted out of this last year and was progressive over hurdles last spring. He flopped over fences but was better when 4th in a qualifier behind Flintham. He still needs to improve on that but he would have hated that ground so hindsight it might look a good run and he's been dropped 2lbs. David Noonan takes off a valuable 5lbs too and is a claimer to keep onside so I can see him going well.
Mall Dini e/w @ 20/1 - Bet365
Warrior's Tale e/w @ 25/1 - Bet365
Rolling Maul e/w @ 50/1 - Bet365

4.10 - Any Currency 11/1 William Hill

Vautour being redirected to this race makes it a real pain in the arse now. They have said he is only 90% fit so that is enough for me to take him on, at least to an extent.
Al Ferof has to be respected for Dan Skelton but he seems to be at his best on his first run of the season and he is short enough to take a chance on Skelton changing that pattern for all that he has a big chance on his form this year.
Valseur Lido has fallen and unseated on his last two and that is enough for me to pass in a race like this.
Taquin De Seuil could be involved. He has a little to find but ran really well on his first start after injury. He did a similar thing the year before though, putting in the same figure before going off the boil. He is a price to take that chance though.
Josses Hill is more interesting now as a front runner but he has generally been sticky over his fences and given that he has a bit to find anyway, the combination of the two is enough for me not back him in a good race like this.
Dynaste has the profile of a plot for Pipe but given that this isnt a handicap it wouldnt make too much sense and I would have expected to have seen more for all that I had an interest on him AP.
The two I have gone with are Road to Riches and Village Vic.
Road to Riches loves good ground and has run really well over this trip previously at less testing trips. His trainer was confident of another good show in the Gold Cup so in this weaker race he would have a good chance. I will be splitting my stake on him on the nose in the main market and also in the without Vautour market.
Village Vic has been a big improver this year and whilst I have him on a similar rating as TDS, Al Ferof and Dynaste, Village Vic is still improving. My concern regarding the accuracy of my rating is something I am taking into account as he has improved on bad ground this winter so my stake wont be very big, however it is believed by connections that he does prefer better ground so again that could see more improvement from him. He clearly acts well at the track and is of interest EW in the without Vautour market at around 14/1.
 
 
 
 

Thanks Boulder, same to you.
 
Looks like you had a decent day today as well!

Well done BB - some cracking results there, good luck for the next 2 days 

4.50 Cheltenham - Coo Star Sivola e/w @ 22/1 Paddy Power
I don't like the favourites in this. Diego is just hype, Campeador has been given a high mark on what he's done, Missy Tata doesn't look the most genuine and Fixe Le Kap looks slow. My selection finished runner up in a weak Grade 2 on his first start for the yard but it was still a good performance before a below par effort on heavy ground at Chepstow. I think he's going to relish this ground and I like the booking of Lizzie Kelly.

Happy with that

I am going to back Polly Peachum to exact revenge on this race from last year where she was touched off at the line as we know she loves the conditions she will get today.
 
I am also going to follow arsenalfh with Desert Queen. This is a last minute bet but I watched the previous reversal behind VVM and looking back at her form, 3 miles is too far for her given how freely she travels and the shorter trip on better ground is sure to bring improvement and she doesnt have much to find to be a win contender. Furthermore I always consider running from the front to be a big help in this race at Desert Queen will want to try and make it all. She is definitely overpriced.

Well done Blazing Bailey!

Kelso 4.40 - Marlee Missile 9/2 Bet365

15:50 Sandown: Ballycross @ 12/1 bet365 e/w thanks

On the basis that Vautour doesn't run, because let's be honest if he turns up here he would take the world of beating and I wouldn't be in a hurry to take him on. I also highly doubt Vroum Vroum Mag will feature here.
Firstly in my opinion both Road To Riches & Valseur Lido should be in the Gold Cup. They're both 3mile + horses. I think they would be too slow for this race so I'll ruling them out. I would have slight preference for Road to Riches who could make his presence felt if he was to turn up, but he'll be a short price and worth taking on.
Al Ferof is a fairly consistent sort, has run a place in the King George acouple times. But he's certaintly no spring chicken and at 11 I couldn't be backing him. The last 3 renewels have gone to second season chasers and there's better value to be had.
Vibrato Valtat is a consistent horse and often hits the frame. He's been running decent races in some of the top 2mile races without doing anything spectacular. But I think he wants further and should enjoy the extra distance he'll get in the Ryanair. The horse is a big player here for Paul Nicholls.
Josses Hill really interests me here. A decent horse placed in acouple festivals, second in a supreme and third in last years Arkle. He's been campaigning mostly over 2miles like Vibrato Valtat. But I thought he looked really good last time out when beating Gods Own at Kempton over a similar distance and really saw the trip out. Provided his jumping is similar to that last time out he must have a very good chance here. 
Village Vic for Philip Hobbs has been improving all season and just keeps winning. He loves it around Cheltenham and brings the top handicap form to the table. Obviously this is going to be a big step up in class for him but there's nonreason he shouldn't go well once again. Uxizandre won this race last year with a positive ride from McCoy, making all in front and Village Vic loves to race like that. With Richard Johnson in the saddle, in an open looking renewel of the race, I think he's got to have a decent chance.
You couldn't rule Smashing out of the race either, he's ran well at Cheltenham in the past and looks a much improved horse over fences around this sort of trip. But he's been doing all his winning on heavy ground and I can't help but think he might be abit of a small field bully and he won't get his own way here.
There's 3 horses I like here and they're all double figure prices so I'm just going to put them all up. And back them all to win level stakes. 
Verdict:
Vibrato Valtat 10/1 
Josses Hill 12/1
Village Vic 12/1 
All with Boylesports 

What a race this proves to be, one of the best in recent times. It should be a great spectacle and a case can be made for many of the runners making it a fascinating betting heat. But from a betting point of view I'm taking a different approach and almost by process of elimination, I have found myself a very strong selection.
 
So by focusing on the main 6 principles that head the market, Djakadam who was a good second in the race last year and would surely have to have a excellent chance now a year older at the age of 7. He ran well first time out this season over 2m4f in the John Durkan at Punchestown, beating Valseur Lido & Gilgamboa easily.  He was then installed at 7/2 favourite for this race after the King George chase had been run. With this horse seemingly having the perfect profile and 'ticking every box'. But the prep race went far from plan when the horse and Walsh took a bad looking fall for no apparent reason, sent off 4/7 fav at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase. It has completely shaken up the market and the prep couldn't have gone much worse. Initially after the fall of Djakadam being 7/2 favourite for the Gold Cup I was expecting a possible overreaction in the betting to make him more of a prospect. Maybe 8/1 or 9/1 but instead he's still strong at 5/1 and I couldn't be backing that at the price. Taking in to account the stats for a horse that has previously failed to win the Gold Cup & trying to comeback and do it after a last time out fall would be a huge negative.
 
Don Cossack is in the warm order at the head of the market and was imperious when slamming a good field in the Melling Chase at Aintree last April. And then again just after when beating Djakadam, Road to Riches & Cue Card impressively in the Punchestown Gold Cup. He seems an awkward horse to me though, I backed him in the King George on Boxing Day. He never seemed to be comfortable in the race and then took a fall at the second last when looking lively. Maybe the track didn't suit him and play to his strengths. For me that was disappointing.  He has won his prep race since then and connections aren't sure whether to use headgear on him or not. But besides from that it's the Cheltenham record that puts me off having been beat in two festivals already, including falling in an RSA. He stayed on strongly in the last years Ryanair to nab third, albeit he was already beaten. On that basis and the fact his jumping can has looked off at Cheltenham before, I can pass on him at the 4/1 mark 
 
Vautour has the perfect record around Cheltenham and is a 'spring horse'. He's obviously better at Cheltenham and going left handed and I do think he'll improve from his narrow King George defeat. In my opinion the horse is almost too quick and flashy for the test of the Gold Cup. I think Vautour is an excellent horse but his distance looks to be between 2m - 3m and he would win the Ryanair Chase and have an outstanding chance in the Champion Chase. But 3 and 1/4 miles and a big hill, I can't see him staying. 
 
Cue Card has come back a new horse this year winning his 3 chase starts along the way. Taking the Betfair Chase & the King George, the form is in the book. He also acts around Cheltenham being a multiple winner here. He comes here with a similar profile to Silviniaco Conti last year who was sent off favourite for the Gold Cup and didn't seem to stay. Now Cue Card has never raced over this extended distance, not saying that's a bad thing, but where stamina really comes to the fore and I just can't see it being a positive to him. I wouldn't take away anything from him if he were to win but from a betting point of view I can't have him.
 
Smad Place must have a decent chance in this unique test having powered away with the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cotswold Chase from the front. But he's never won a grade 1 and has seemingly come up short every time, included this seasons King George VI (4th) and that would be a negative. 
 
That at leaves me with the Willie Mullins trained Don Poli. He's won 5 out of his 6 chase starts, including 3 Grade1 chase wins, he's a good jumper albeit not the flashy type. He basically goes on any ground. He's also got the 100% Cheltenham record similar to stablemate Vautour, having won the Martin Pipe and the RSA Chase. I was impressed by how he won the RSA Chase last year, with his jumping bringing him right into it and then powering up the hill, ears pricked and ran right into the line when others were tiring. Now that race hasn't worked out well in terms of form, but imagine there was an extra furlong that day, he would've absolutely bolted up. He wasn't stopping at the line that day that's for sure. His only defeat came at Punchestown last year where I don't believe he showed his true running, he needs time in-between races and that might have come too soon. He narrowly won the Lexus at Leopardstown at Christmas and on the form that wouldn't be good enough here but he looked to me like he'd only just got going when getting up to win. I think the horse has some engine and having proved his love for Cheltenham and the hill it is a big positive. He's never raced beyond the 3miles before, neither have most of his rivals, but once they turn in for home and it's new territory for the horses. I expect he will be the one to relish the stamina test, and provided he's with them at the turn in at the bottom of the hill, I don't see him being beaten. He will run up the hill while the other horses tire and battle all the way to the line.
 
Of the others at bigger prices, last years third Road To Riches would have an each way chance if the ground came up good. And Valseur Lido could improve for the trip and should be running here but since the owners also have both Dons, they'll likely break them up into the Ryanair.
 
Verdict: Don Poli 6/1 with StanJames rates as a strong 5 star selection. 

Leicester 4.50 - Troika Steppes 11/4 Bet365
Bounced back to form with a front running win over slightly further around this track before running a respectable race against better company over this C&D when probably ridden a little too aggressively. This doesnt look a particularly strong race with the current favourite a candidate for the dreaded bounce running only 19 days after a 22 month absence. Spending Time has pulled up the last twice, Mountain of Morne has enough to prove after an average chase debut and One For The Boss is probably the one I fear most if back to his spring form assuming he is in good health having pulled up over hurdles more than 100 days ago.