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Blazing Bailey

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Posts posted by Blazing Bailey

  1. The last two are the final get out of jail free cards.

    Grand Annual

    Capeland (EW) - I am a little concerned that he hasn't done anything around here but his run in the JLT wasnt a terrible run and in fact, bar one quite bad error it would have be much better and that would have a been a bigger test than today. He has run two mighty handicap races this season at Ascot going up 10lb but his performances deserved it. He has then gone into graded races and whilst he was a bit poor on heavy at Ascot, he was impressive at Kempton in a messy race. Back in handicap company I can see this race being run to suit and then it will be a question as to whether the weight becomes too much for him up the hill.

    Ecclair De Beafeau (W) - This looks an obvious profile from this stable. Not quite good enough in graded races and then goes into a handicap and wins fairly handily. This was apparently the plan before that Leopardstown win, no doubt partly due to his huge run in the County Hurdle last season where he probably hit the front a bit too early and was starting to tire when unseating at the last.

    Croco Bay (Place) - Last years winner has great form in this race with his 4 attempts as follows: W,5,F,3. He is 13 now but his last run at Doncaster was as good his win in this last year and so he must have another great chance of going close. My main bet on him would be for a place only as surely he will find something too good at his age but there are some fancy prices on Betfair for him and I wouldnt put anyone off.

    Martin Pipe

    The final race of the day and I have quite a strong fancy in the form of Column of Fire (W). He stepped up from maiden company to run a big race at Leopardstown, the 2nd running in the Stayers, the 3rd placing yesterday behind Sire Du Berlais and the 5th looking set to go close before falling. That race was over further but a quickly run race over this trip will surely suit and I can see him powering up the hill.

    I do have two others for smaller stakes. The first is Espoir De Romay (EW) and Umbrigado (EW). The former is a horse firmly on the upgrade and the horse he beat has gone on to win a competitive enough handicap readily in the last couple of weeks. The stable have had a win and a place this week from limited runners. The latter is a Pipe horse that has been going up and down in trip and this finally looks right for him. He was impressive at Haydock when looking to run out of steam and then getting caught out for pace when not running that badly behind Not So Sleepy on heavy at Ascot. The last time he ran at this trip he ran less than 10l behind Reserve Tank in a Grade 1. There is a question over what he will find and aids have been applied but he is worth a tickle at current odds.

  2. Gold Cup

    Al Boum Photo            178

    Clan Des Obeaux         178

    Kemboy                      178

    Lostintranslation          175

    Delta Work                  173

    Santini                         173

     

    What a Gold Cup this is going to be. Al Boum Photo is bidding to repeat his win from last year and he would appear to have solid claims to do so. In the back of my mind he is still a horse that will make mistakes, as he showed at Punchestown, and whilst he did it well last season he was 12/1 then and now is a quarter of that price and I think I can let him run at that price. The next three on the list also have question marks over them, CDO needs to show he can be his best on an undulating track, Kemboy needs to jump better and prefers better ground and the Tizzard's aren't firing. That then leaves the 2nd and 3rd from last years RSA who are the up-and-comers in this contest. Santini has always screamed at me as a Gold Cup horse. He had a poor prep for the RSA last season and I think he will improve again for this race. Delta Work has done nothing wrong this season either, dining at every Irish top table and due to how he wins (which isnt by much), his ratings probably don't show his true level of ability. Having won the Pertemps as a 5yo I think he will relish this longer trip and I can see him and the Henderson horse fighting it out at the finish.

  3. Albert Bartlett

    Thyme Hill               152

    Latest Exhibition      150

    Monkfish                 150

    Ramses De Teille    150

    The Cashel Man      150

    Janidil                     150

    Cobbles Way           147

    This is a tough and competitive race and again wouldn't be one that I would be completely confident about. Ramses De Teille has to be hugely respected. He stays, he has plenty of experience, he is tough but he is a Pipe horse and I would like to see more evidence that they are flying. He must be a very solid EW contender. The two I will chance for the win are two very similar horses in Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition. Thyme Hill looks the obvious horse. Champion Bumper placed, and this year he has beaten a range of impressive enough horses being strongest at the finish. My biggest concern with this horse is how badly the Hobbs stable is performing here. He has had winners outside of the festival but his biggest hopes here have flopped. I think the current price takes an element of that into account though. Latest Exhibition looks the strongest of the Irish. He ran 2nd to Abacadabras over 16f, which is some performance when considering the trip they are running over this week, he beat a Grade 2 winner, going away over a stiff 20f and he ran similarly over 22f in a race where the 5th was running a big race in the Supreme. The rest have lofty ratings but have either been beaten by one of these two or havent been tested in a tough enough environment for my liking.

  4. Yesterday worked out well, albeit some horses I had reservations about won (Samcro & Min) and a couple I thought would be certainties (Frodon EW & Paisely Park) were well beaten. Either way, it was a good day and even if I dont win a penny today I will still be walking away with a few quid in my pocket!

    Triumph Hurdle

    Solo                         145

    Aspire Tower             145

    Allmankind                143

    Goshen                     143

    A Wave of The Sea     140

    Sir Psycho                 140

    There are two I am not keen on for this and they are Goshen and Aspire Tower, the former looking like a dodgy jumper and the other having fallen last time out. They are plenty short enough with those concerns. There is a lot of pace so this could set up for more of a closer like Solo or A Wave of The Sea. The Skelton horse has done nothing but impress me so far and so I will go with him as the pace horse and Solo as the off the pace horse. It's not a race to go big with though.

     

    County Hurdle

    Aramon (W) - Likely to run a big race. Has Cheltenham form, top trainer and jockey and his form makes this mark look workable. You dont see many Grade 1 winners in a race like this, especially when their latest run produced a Grade 1 winner and Grade 1 placed horse at this meeting.

    Embittered (EW) - A horse who hasnt quite made it at the top level who ran with promise despite being slightly hampered in a good race last time out. Price looks a bit big to me.

    Stolen Silver (EW) - I would be keener on this horse if his stable had done a bit better here this week but he placed behind Chantry House, beat the Supreme 6th and then probably got caught out a little for pace on good ground int he Betfair Hurdle where it can be difficult to make ground up from the rear. He has been dropped 2lb for that and he must go closer today.

    Ciel De Neige (W) - I can't believe how much the price has collapsed on this one. Another Betfair Hurdle runner who probably got to the front a little too soon.Only up 4lb, placed in the Fred Winter last season and has the right connections.

  5. Brown Advisory

    Whilst the price is crazily short, it is the only fault I can find with Simply the Betts. The second behind him in his last run bolted up earlier in the week, he has form here, he runs prominently, he jumps well enough and I cant see a way he doesn't go close.

    I have added another in the form of Ben Dundee (EW) who whilst I wouldnt back him to beat STB, if anything does go wrong with the favourite then I can see him picking up the pieces. I also don't see him finishing out of the from so he rates a very solid EW option. Placed in a competitive handicap behind A Plus Tard last season, and close again at Navan this season, he has Davy Russell on board today and just looks right for this race.

    The best bit about today is that you get a little chance to have a lie down or hopefully count your money before the finale.

    Kim Muir

    Everyone knows by now that it is so important to get the best jockeys in these amateur races. Fresh from his win earlier in the week, I will back Jamie Codd to go close again today with Le Brueil. His stable have been out of form most of the season and as a result he hasn't really had the opportunity to build upon his win under the same pilot in the 4 miler last season and whilst his form hasn't actually been as bad as it has looked (clear excuses LTO), the stable are now starting to fire (Kildisart 2nd earlier in the week).

    Sticking with the best jockeys, whilst I don't think he is on the board yet Patrick Mullins rides Fitzhenry (EW) and he too must have a serious chance. I wonder whether he is a horse that is too often the bridesmaid in these type of races and if I am right with my other selection then it may well be the same story again but he runs really well in these big handicaps and where a top jockey can count for that little bit extra, he could go one better today.

    Finally I will also give a small shout to Kilfilum Cross. 2nd in this last year he has had a curious season. He ran at Ayr after that race but that wouldn't be a track he would like, he has then run twice over 19f, doing OK over a trip too short (either side of a PU on heavy ground) before finishing 2nd at Kempton, another less than ideal track, behind a rapid improver who will probably have a big chance on Saturday. That run was 1lb better than his second last season and yet he is 1lb lower. He might have improved this year but we haven't really had the chance to fully see it yet and whilst he looks to be another that is shortening in the market, he too must rate an EW play, with the same jockey as last year.

     

  6. Stayers Hurdle

    Paisely Park wins and then its case of whether or not to have an EW play.

    You could pick from a handful and make a case but I will rule out of a couple of the main ones. Bacardys is best at a shorter trip, Emitom isnt the greatest of jumper, Apples Jade is a bit of an unknown at the moment and connections dont appear confident and I am not convinced that Summerville Boy is true stayer at this trip in a properly run race (although there is a doubt as to whether this will be well run) and City Island will surely need a hurdle prep after returning from chasing. As a result my pin landed on Ronald Pump. He is a quite progressive hurdler and his last run (handicap) was as good as many others have shown this season and only 5lb behind the level Paisely Park has shown this season. It look like others are starting to find him in the market but if he improves again, which is a definite possibility, then he could cause more trouble to the favourite than people may think.

  7. Ryanair Chase

    Frodon                   173

    Aso                        171

    Min                         171

    A Plus Tard             170

    Ridersonthestorm     167

     

    Frodon is massively overlooked in this race in my opinion. A Plus Tard is a worthy favourite, is improving and could well be one of the NAPs of the day but Frodon must be the EW play of the day, if not week. People keep saying how poorly Frodon has ran this season but its bollocks. His Aintree run was rated 1lb better than the previous seasons, he ran really well for a long way in the Betfair Chase against a horse that would be the best horse in training if all races were run over that course and distance and one of the solidest novices from last season and then despite not being the ideal track, he ran and won at Kempton, only 3lb below the form he showed in his prep run in the Cotswold Chase the year before. This horse is at his best around Cheltenham and you can add at least 5lb to what he did last time out, maybe even closer to 10lb. Its not entirely implausible that the horse has actually improved again slightly this season so he really shouldn't be dismissed for all that he is up against a potential star.

    As for the others, Aso would also rate a solid EW bet but I cant see Min staying on up the hill as he has faded each time before and that was over shorter and Ridersonthestorm is surely backing up a bit soon after a grueling race last time out.

  8. Another good day yesterday topping up the coffers again but generally speaking today is always the make or break day for me. Its the most competitive day and filled with races that I like the most and get this right and it should allow me enough money to smuggle in 100 rolls of triple quilted toilet paper just in time for the apocalypse.

    Marsh Novice

    Faugheen           166

    Samcro              161

    Itchy Feet           160

    Mister Fisher       157

     

    This posed me a real problem. I ruled out Samcro pretty quickly because I dont see him finishing his race off. Even when he was throwing down a challenge to Fakir Doudaries in my opinion he was just as likely to fall into a hole just as he did against Faugheen. They have done his wind again but he is way too short and would be one of my lays of the day in all honesty. Faugheen and Itchy Feet are my next two bets. I didnt like the way they were talking about Faugheen after his win at the DRF. It was almost as if that was the day and anything after is a bonus. He didn't jump that well and Easy Game hasn't franked the form and nor has the 4th. Can a horse at his age also come and put in a career best here? I wouldn't want to lay him, but I'm happy to watch him win unbacked. Speaking of iffy jumpers, Itchy Feet must also fall into this category. He was impressive at the business end in that Sandown race and Midnight Shadow is a solid 150 horse and he breezed past him. He ran well here and at Aintree over hurdles last spring and he will cope well with this ground. The problem with him is that he will make mistakes and I am not sure I can see a horse doing a Champ two days in a row. If he minimises the errors then he would have a huge chance. Mister Fisher would also have a chance having beaten another solid enough 150 horse over a shorter than ideal trip but he would be best on better ground. My tentative nod would therefore go to Itchy Feet.

     

    Pertemps Handicap

    My first bet will be Sire Du Berlais (EW). He won the race last year after a troubled passage from 7lb lower and whilst I dont expect him to be able to win this race with a similar passage this year, he must surely go close to winning if it goes well. He loves it here, his runs have been the typical style run for a race like this, getting into a place without showing your full hand and with Gerraghty riding out of his skin so far this week he should be bang there.

    I have backed The Storyteller (W). I'm not proud of it but sometimes you just have to look at the obvious signs in front of your eyes. As I mentioned above he is a clear plot job and whilst he is well found in the market, he has the form over hurdles, the form at the track and one of the best trainers and jockeys for this type of challenge.

    Skandiburg (EW) is another I will have a bet on. This horse has abundant stamina and a real test on soft ground looks to be right up his street. I thought he had no chance in the Cheltenham race he won last time out but he found loads under pressure to power away. Why wouldnt you want a horse like that on your side in this race?

    I am also tossing up a 4th bet which is currently between Stoney Mountain and Third Wind. Most of Third Wind's best form has come over shorter and on right handed tracks which raises an alarm bell to me and I think he is short enough given that this will be a big test. His wins at Sandown and Wincanton show that this is a horse to keep on the right side of but I am not sure this is the day. Stoney Mountain won the same race at Haydock Paisely Park did last season and he won it in a similar fashion by powering clear after the final flight when looking well beaten. Despite that connections then sent him chasing where he UR before sending him to the same race SDB placed in to qualify for this race and he received a somewhat similar ride, essentially never threatening the leaders as they were a bit too pacey for him. Like Skandiburg this looks like the right test.

  9. Coral Cup

    Really tough race to call and plenty with chances. In the end I have sided with the following:

    Bachasson 25/1 Bet365 EW

    Top Moon 18/1 Unibet EW

    Dame De Compagne 9/2 Bet365

    Alfa Mix 14/1 Bet365

    I do have to say that the Henderson mare is now very short and I wouldn't touch her at those prices in such a competitive race.

     

    Boodles Juvenile

    I admit that I have a terrible record in this race, my only winner in recent memory being Flying Tiger (albeit at 33/1) but I don't often go that close. I have changed my approach this season and hopefully it will help! Definitely a small stakes job.

    Blacko 6/1 Hills (also now a bit short - Was bigger than 20's in the week)

    Repetitio 16/1 Unibet EW

    Paladium 13/2 Bet365

     

    Champion Bumper

    I like the favourite but he is short enough for me in a race like this. I have backed:

    Israel Champ 12/1 EW Bet365 (really solid form at Ascot and a good figure)

    Queens Brook 7/1 Bet365

     

     

     

  10. Relatively good day yesterday with a decent enough profit so hopefully that can continue into today.

    Ballymore Hurdle

    Envoi Allen         154

    Sporting John      152

    Easywork            147

    Longhouse Poet   147

    The Big Getaway  145

    The Big Breakaway 145

    Decor Irlandais        145

     

    Given how well the form was boosted yesterday is is very hard to see past Envoi Allen in this race. He is somewhat of a bulletproof horse as it is as I can see no way to crab what he has done in his short career. Sporting John is the danger and he too is a very solid horse without too many chinks. I can see him and EA having a right set to up the hill without getting past. The likely improver out of the rest could be the Tizzard horse but his ran disappointingly yesterday and he still has a fair bit to find.I will probably both the first two and maybe even in a forecast.

     

    RSA

    Allaho               164

    Copperhead       160

    Easy Game       160

    Battleoverdoyen 158

    Champ              157

    Slate House       157

    Minella Indo       156 (Hurdles) 149 (Fences)

     

    I'm not a huge fan of this race this year but I can rule a few out. Minella Indo hasn't run to this level over fences yet and is short enough with that in mind. Slate House didnt get the ideal prep when pulling up last time out. Champ and Battleoverdoyen both fell last time out and Easy Game has to prove himself over this trip. I have a slight doubt over Copperheads last run, the race looked to fall apart a bit and also as to whether the stable are fully flying, however I will give him a chance to prove himself with my money on him, as well as Allaho who Ruby admits would have got closer to MI last season with a better ride in the Albert Bartlett. This step up in trip on soft ground is set to suit him and he could get the rest at it off the home turn.

     

     

  11. Just gone through the day 1 handicaps and I must say that I am a bit disappointed that the ones I like the most are quite short in the market, and I actually like both of the current favourites! In the end I sided with the following:

    Ultima

    Vinndication 7/1 Ladbrokes - Improving horse, sound jumper, ran well enough int he Festival last season. No reason he wont run well.

    Kildisart 10/1 Betvictor - Ran well in the JLT and then stepped up to win at Aintree. Back to form last time out and looks set out for this.

    Mister Malarky 14/1 EW Bet365 - Favourite of mine, a tough, good jumping stayer. Back to his best last time out and no reason he wont run well again.

     

    Northern Trust

    Imperial Aura 11/2 Coral - Two brilliant runs at this track behind big improvers. Last time the stable were a bit quiet and more expected tomorrow.

    Hold The Note 15/2 Bet365 - Couldn't hang on in Grade 2 over further. In my mind the drop back looks a plus over this stiff track and he will travel well on the likely fast pace.

    Knight In Dubai 33/1 Bet365 - Good jumper, winning first two easily. Below form at Haydock G2 in bad ground but best can be seen of him here for shrewd yard.

     

  12. I say fill up your sacks for Tuesday instead!

    I am with you on The Two Amigos (Tau 4.40). Finished behind a progressive type at Fontwell before running in two big handicaps at Chepstow and Haydock running admirably both times. In far easier waters now and surely has too much class for the rest of these. Strong stayer, loves the mud and I can see his front running run style putting the rest to the sword.

    5/2 Bet365 looks too big.

     

  13. National Hunt Chase

    Traditionally this is a race I have done quite well in so I am hoping that the drop in distance doesn’t change that! Having said that, I don’t really like this years edition. Furthermore whilst it is in some ways just as important to have a good jockey as well as a good horse in this race. The figures are as follows:

    Carefully Selected           156

    Lord Du Mensil                156

    Newtide                          149

    Springfield Fox                149

    Ravenhill                         148

    The Hollow Ginge            148

     

    The reason I don’t like this race is because I have doubts over the top two. Carefully Selected made some big mistakes when running left handed last time out, the type that would put him on the deck if he did them here. Lord Du Mensil has all his best form on heavy ground at Haydock and generally speaking, I don’t rate that form when transferred anywhere else. I cant back either of these two at the current prices with those doubts.

    That leads us into the next 5 horses are very closely rated. Newtide is probably my favourite of the lot. He was fortunate to win last time but he is a proper stayer and he jumps well. He has one of the better jockeys on board as well so he ticks all the boxes. At 10/1 he is also an EW price. They have also talked about him as a Welsh National horse so if it does get testing it shouldn’t be a problem for him.

    Springfield Fox will run handily which is never a bad thing in a race like this and he won well at Exeter last time out earning him this rating. He made a few mistakes in that race and I could see that being enough to stop him from winning this but again and his price is now probably about right from being much bigger in the past.

    One of the best riders in this race in Jamie Codd gets the leg up on Ravenhill.  He fell last time out and that will be enough to put me off in a race like this.

    The last one on the list is The Hollow Ginge who ran well either side of two below form performances at Haydock. He won a messy handicap last time out with only one other finisher and its hard to see that he will be good enough to win a race like this. I think he is already close to the ceiling of his ability whereas the others have more scope to improve. Saying that he has more experience that the other English runners and he is being earmarked for the National so he is clearly expected to stay. He is a big price too.

     

     

  14. Champion Hurdle

    Another wide open championship race on day one. There are lots of horses rated very similarly but I think we will have to see a horse run to around 165+ to win this. With that in mind, my eye is on the following:

     

    Call Me Lord    158

    Cilaos Emery   160

    Darver Star       160

    Sharjah            163

    Supasundae     159

    Epatante          164

     

    I might as well start with the closest horse to that mark in Epatante. The first concern is Cheltenham based on last seasons run. I don't believe it will be an issue and if anything it will have more to do with the hood. First time hood wearers at the festival have a terrible record and I watched her run up the hill and despite Gerraghty stop riding her up the hill, she wasn't packing it in by any means. What I did see in that race was some frailties with her jumping. Down the back straight she got on the back foot at two or three, losing ground. She did a similar thing to one at Kempton on the far side too, without losing too much ground. The most curious run was at Newbury. Seemingly not fancied as much as her stablemate by Henderson, she actually looked as though she would lose out to another Henderson horse between the last and second last before powering away. Her jump at that last flight was terrible as well. She absolutely winged the final flights at Kempton and the question is whether she can repeat that Christmas Hurdle run at Cheltenham. I think she can, but she cant afford any errors, and even if she does repeat that performance, there will still be others a lot closer than they were at Kempton. I would really like to see her come and blow these boys away, and she does seem to have that potent turn of foot to do so. I see no reason why she shouldn't be bang there but I would like to see her drift a little before I back her.

    The stablemate CML is an interesting enough one. I think he will improve for the better ground but the trip might be a bit trappy at this level. He will need a good pace to go close IMO. I could see him running a race in the low 160's without being good enough.

    The Irish form is interesting. Supasundae is likely to run to around the 160 mark and not be good enough to win but he will give us a good guide to the form. If they beat him (and Ballyandy) well, then it will be a good edition, which on paper it doesn't look to be at the moment. Sharjah is a lottery. Very much capable of running between 165 and 170 but I have no idea whether he will run his race. Cilaos Emery was going to the Champion Chase until February when he fell. He ran well enough last time out back over hurdles, beating the re-opposing Durasso handily but he didnt look like a winner of this. He is another that falls into the likely to run well without winning category. This then leaves Darver Star, who has been tipped up quite a bit by Kevin Blake. I wrote him off until I watched the last two runs back, running OK behind the best Irish novices before going on to better to finish with a rattle behind Honeysuckle. I can really see him flying up the hill. He jumped really quickly over the last two that day and a horse finishing like that always catches my eye. Honeysuckle would be a short price here and DS would have beaten her in another 100-200 yards. He has improved bundles this season already and I wouldnt expect much more but this test looks ideal and I could see him finishing best.

    I can see myself back Epatante on the day when she drifts or with the bookmaker concessions and having a nibble on Darver Star EW.

  15. 37 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

    How does The Conditional rate in The Ultima? He’s in very low in the weights and won at Cheltenham before over CD. 

    No reason why he wouldn't go close. Looks well handicapped, likes the track, trip will suit.

    I would be all over Cepage in that race if I knew he would stay.

  16. The Arkle

    There are plenty in with a realistic chance of winning this race. My outlook on what they have achieved as far from a ratings point of view is as follows:

    Notebook               164

    Espirit Du Large    159

    Brewinupastorm     159

    Cash Back             158

    Rouge Vif               158

    Maire Banrigh        158

    Mister Fisher          157

    Al Dancer               156

    Fakir Doudaries     156

    Global Citizen         156

     

    Firstly I shall start with Cash Back as I think he will be a key part of this race. I have watched both of his last starts and he will frame this race by going off hard in front. He is an extremely slick jumper and whilst I dont think he has the raw ability of some of these, his jumping will sort plenty of them out, especially those that aren't up to this class and those that don't jump well enough. I can certainly see this lad running a huge race but he might just get nabbed on the run in. I will probably back him.

    One horse that will know that his run style wont trouble is Notebook. He too will run up with the pace and aside from jumping slightly right he is just as slick but with slightly more ability. I think Notebook is as bomb-proof as they come as long as he deals with the occasion better than he did at the DRF where he bolted to post. It sounds as though it was unexpected and it someways it is better to do it there for the first time rather than at Cheltenham because now they can prepare to prevent it happening on the big day. It shows how talented he is that he was able to cope with bolting to post and then still have the energy to get up to deny Cash Back last time out. I will be backing this horse, albeit I might wait until I see him safely down at the start.

    The rest of the horses on the list are ones that I have tried to anticipate who will and who will not cope with the test posed by those two above. Espirit Du Large and Rouge Vif have a common foe in Nube Negra to rate their races through. I thought EDL got first run on that rival at Sandown as the Skelton horse had to switch off the bend and then try and make up ground on EDL which is hard to do at that track. I am not sure that form would stick if they ran the race again. RV has then beaten the same horse by several lengths at Warwick, producing an assured jumping display and bounding clear at the finish. RV is likely to run handier and therefore be more affected by the two Irish horses whereas EDL is more likely to hunt around and then come with a challenge. I couldn't rule either of them out from an EW perspective.

    The rest I have concerns about. Brewinupastorm's form is weak enough for me and he has a tendency to put in a slow one. I am also not a fan of a horse coming back from a niggle in such a big race. Mister Fisher might get caught out by the pace of the race, but if not he jumps well enough, he will stay further and he could be seen putting down a challenge up the hill. Al Dancer is surely not going to be good enough having been beaten by several rivals and Maire Banrigh again doesnt look to have raced against decent enough horses to truely assess how good she is but she can clearly jump and she has travelled well in her races so far. Doing so in this, may just prove too much for her. Global Citizen is a flat sharp track bully and isnt one that interests me.

    This leaves the well tipped Fakir Doudaries. I don't see him reversing the form with the favourite based on their previous running. He is worse off at the weights and every perceived benefit he might enjoy (the test, the ground, the pace) and I also see benefiting the favourite too.

     

  17. Supreme Hurdle

    I think this comes down to 5 horses and my ratings of them are as follows:

    Asterion Forlonge   156

    Envoi Allen             154

    Shishkin                 154

    Fiddlerontheroof       152

    Abaracadabras        151

    I am still expecting EA to head to the Neptune and which ever race he ends up in he will be a huge threat as he travels like a dream, he jumps well and he has a potent turn of foot too. AF looks to have a massive engine but I would definitely doubt his ability to jump well enough to win a race like this. He jumps to his right and really stickily at times and whilst he got away with that last time out and still managed to post a quick time, I don't see him being able to get away with it in this field. His chance increases with slower ground in my opinion.

    Shishkin is another that looks to have it all. There is no obvious reason to doubt his ability other than he hasn't been properly tested. Henderson's relatively poor record in this race is curious because he has had a lot of talented horses run in this and fail to win. The one doubt I have is whether is battle hardened enough and then when I think of Henderson's other recent high profile losers in this race they seem to have a similar profile. When I say battle hardened, I mean at  true top class pace. All the other horses in this list have been tested.

    The one I most like out of this list is Fiddlerontheroof. I loved the way he stayed on Sandown up the hill and how he attacked his hurdles. He drew effortless clear in the final stages and if he is in the race as they turn in, I doubt any of the others will jump as well as he does under pressure. He is a much bigger price than he should be in my opinion and had he been trained by Mullins or Henderson I bet he would be at least a couple of points shorter.

    The final horse is Abaracadbras who has been the only horse to put it up to EA. It wasn't too much of a contest in the end but for a National Hunt horse he looks a slick mover who will appreciate the anticipated better ground at Cheltenham. He is a real hardy horse too, with plenty of runs and I couldn't rule him out.

  18. 10 hours ago, Darran said:

    It’s all about making a profit. There is nothing wrong with backing 2, 3 or sometimes 4 in a race if the prices allow. I was reasonably confident one of them would win but didn’t favour one over the other which is why I had the same amount on both. Obviously completely up to the individual on what they do but I certainly wouldn’t be afraid of backing more than one in a race.

    Couldn't agree more. As long as it pays then it's a good way of hedging your bets especially when there are pace /draw uncertainties. I also find its good in large field jumps races because if one falls or blunders, the other horse is still live. Unless of course one brings the other down which has happened a few times!

  19. The 3.05 at Ayr looks a competitive enough race for a small field on bad ground but The Con Man at 3/1 looks a but big. Improving horse, back in much calmer waters than last time and the 2nd has placed in another competitive race since. 

    The fav is definitely respected also dropping back in grade, and one I have had my eye on as well but they both look well enough treated off their respective marks but I just fancy the selection a little more in these conditions and at the price.

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