paparainbow

Posts
80 
Joined

Last visited
Posts posted by paparainbow


Is anyone familiar with simulationg basketball matches playbyplay?
any good resource?


Did you find out anything?

Basketball prices are usually sharper than in soccer, that's why

You can try and bet 1.000$ on 1.02 price everyday.. but i think that if you do so 1 or 2 times every 1000 bets will probably lose...

Google oddsgear

Betano


you have to create a correct score model. keep in mind that expected goals are not the only variables needed. you should need also something like correlation or draw factor.
then you reverse enginer your model based on the true probabilities that come out of bookies' prices

Try to understand what odds are and their connection to implied probabilities and true probabilities.
then check what value bet is

On 12/15/2019 at 12:37 PM, mike1 said:
from all the goals are scored on 2H how many of them are scored (percentage) from teams are tied and how many are score from teams either trailing or leading by a goal
You just repeated your first post, it doesn’t make sense.
in any case i suggest getting raw data and making your cleaning/ wrapping ad hoc

You should get raw data and have some data wrapping yourself.
my dataset of choise is footystats (paid).
with some simple querries you cAn isolate draws of the league you are interested.
from there, for each team you have the time of each goal scored. They offer a column for each team, so for a game ended up draw let's say 22 you would have something like
home/ 13, 33
away/ 35, 88
so you would have to read each like and clean it with some regular expressions in order to get what you want for your modelling.


It's not about market rather than probabilities and margin applied to them.
you have to understand that bookies rely on source markets in order to derive all other markets, hence they are all following the correct probabilities (provided their models are correct).
additionally the most of them
rely on pricing feeds so they all have same odds. You might find an edge for matches proced early, where market (asian) is not yet balanced and bookies copy each other with limited knowledge on what is going on.
avoid top leagues since they usually are well studied.

On 11/28/2019 at 1:37 PM, Tsakiris7 said:
@neutrid Thanks for your reply. I usually chose the second option from the ones you mentioned. I was just waiting for the game to go in about twenty minutes and then I chose not to score two goals until the 45th. That is because until the 20th the score can be 20 then I will choose under 4.5 HT. I've had so much success in this way I'm just trying as I mentioned before to find the best market for these returns. Every advice welcome Thank you again
Avoid liquid markets/ sports/ leagues.
always bet on nom popular leagues and derivative markets!

On 12/4/2019 at 11:28 AM, mike1 said:
does anybody knows how 2H goals are distributed according to the scoreline before the goal, ie what is the percentage of goals that teams are tied score , and what is the percentage that teams trailing by a goal or leading one have scored.
Can u rephrase? It doesn't make sense what u r saying.

On 10/11/2019 at 8:54 PM, Bazman said:
Hi there,
I am confused by Asian Handicap odds:
They are described in the link below as follows:
(https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=62968&d=1386982455)
"Quarter balls actually mean that the stake of the bet will be divided in two separate bets where one is with 0:0 handicap and the other with ½:0 handicap."
This makes it sound like the quarter should simply bet the average of the (0:0) and (½:0) handicap.
However on pages 69 of the link above they show that although the payoffs of the (¼:0) are the simple averages of the payoffs for the (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps for both teams. Only the odds for the team that does not benefit from the handicap has odds that are the simple average of it's (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps. Can someone please explain to me why the odds for the team that receives the ¼ goal advantage has odds which are different to the simple average of the (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps. Given that the payoffs are the same it seems that the probabilities must be different but why are they different?
Thanks Baz
PS(I realise this a similar question has been asked before but the answers given there don't answer my question)
I am not sure i am following your logic, can you give a numerical example?

I am doing my modelling using

On 7/23/2019 at 10:37 PM, harry_rag said:
You might have a chance of getting a reply that meets your approval if you gave us an actual example quoting the differing cash out values!
sure, do you need odds ( the same set of odds applied to draw no bet and over under), stake and cashout offer only?
10 euros bet placed at odd 1.90
case 1:
placement price is over/ uner
current price [1.80 for the selection over, 1.90 for under]
casout offer 9.25
case 2:
placement price is draw no bet
current price [1.80 for draw no bet home  selection , 1.90 for draw no bet away]
cashout offer 9.45


Can someone explain why books offer different cashout amounts for the same stake/ odds when it comes to draw no bet versus other 2way markets?
i mean let’s say 50€ stake at @1.75 draw no bet home, and @1.75 over 2.5 goals.
the cashout offer is different. Can someone explain the logic (apparently draw no bet has refund for fraws, but i meed a more analytic answer than this).
thanks!

you do unserstand that you treat all matches as identical, which is not the case. In the long run, if you lose 1 out of 10 bets, you will lose money, since you have to take into consideration bookies margins.

txodds offer this as a paid service.

Let’s say that someone places a bet:
100€ @4.00
now inplay the odd goes down to @2.00
his potential winnings is 400€
and the fair cashout is: (4/2)*100= 200€
this is not the case though since books apply margin on cashout amount. Does anyone have any idea how to derive this? Assume 8% percentage for the cashout, i know for a fact that margin moves along with the odds. The longer the inplay odd the greater the marginand vice versa. Any idea how to calculate margin?
any Telegram or instagram betting accounts you follow?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
This is legit https://t.me/dubsprematch