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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: International Friendlies 1st June - 7th June Good win for us on Chile, guys! :D But to be fair, it was a lucky shot and the -1.5 handi on Chile wasn't good value, especially after starting lineup without Sanchez and Vargas was announced. Before the 65th minute when Valdivia hit the crossbar with a header, Chile couldn't make a single good scoring chances, their game lacked any penetration and urgency, and was showing some poor passing. This NI team is disgustingly frustrating - I watched them against Uruguay as well and I don't remember the last time I saw a team playing so ugly and anti-football in a friendly match. 11 men behind the ball in their penalty area for whole 180 minutes (in both games) with the only thought of guarding the precious "point" in a friendly game. And this guy Roy Carroll was just disgusting - wasting time like crazy every time he was taking a goal kick. A good lesson for us - avoid handicaps against NI bus parkers.
  2. Re: Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Rwanda - Libya 3-0 (1-0) Sierra Leone - Swaziland 1-0 Both picks failed. Rwanda-Libya was close to winning, as the first goal came in 5 mins before half-time, but Sierra Leone seem to have underperformed heavily and only managed to win by a single goal from penalty.
  3. Re: Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Rwanda - Libya First leg finished 0:0 on neutral venue (due to safety concerns) and with little scoring chances according to reports. Libya is one of the most under-ish teams not only in Africa, but in the world. Currently, they are in a series of 4 consecutive 0-0s and 12 "unders" in the last 13 matches. In their group phase for WC 2014, 5 of the 6 games were under 2.5 goals, with two of them 0-0s. Rwanda are not a scoring machine and they will struggle to score a goal against solid Libyan defense, but they are decent at home and will be very hard to be defeated. These two teams played a friendly in Rwanda just an year ago, and it finished with a narrow away win - 1:0. All in all, given the teams' profiles and particularly the Libyan, together with the complexity of a 0:0 score in a two-legged affairs, I believe it will be a very low-scoring game. I was wondering between two options - "under 1.5 goals overall" or "under 0.5 1st half". I will choose the second one, as I expect a very slow and careful start of the game, while later on, if one teams scores, the game might open up and more risks might be taken which could put in danger the over 1.5. Under 0.5 Goals 1st Half @ 2.55 (Unibet)
  4. Re: Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications Sierra Leone - Swaziland Bet of the weekend for me. First match in Swaziland finished 1:1, hence the good odds on home handicap today. Swaziland is one of the weakest teams not only in Africa but in the world. They are 178th in the world ranking and there is only one African team which is behind them - Mauritius. Their teams consists only of local players - they not only don't have any player in European league, but they even don't have any player in any other African league. In March 2013, they lost a friendly against Egypt with 10-0. They play very little official games because they always get eliminated in the first preliminary rounds. In the last qualifications for ACN they were defeated twice by Seychelles with 3:0, and in the last WC qualifications they lost to DR Congo - 5:1 away and 3:1 at home. Sierra Leone are not among the best African teams, but they are a very solid home team. In WC 2014 qualifiers group, they defeated at home the good teams of Cape Verde (2:1) and Equatorial Guinea (3:2) and drew 2:2 with Tunisia. In the qualifications for CAN 2012, they defeated Egypt at home. The last time Sierra Leone lost at home was in 2008 against Nigeria, meanwhile, they played 10 matches - 7 wins and 3 draws. Most of Sierra Leone team plays in Europe and they have players in some of the top leagues. The score in the first leg was surprising, as people were expecting an easy away win. However, there were good reasons for the draw. According to media reports, Sierre Leone had to travel for about 24 hours to reach their destination (including a number of long stays at airports and bus travels). The team collected in Sierra Leone's capital just two days before the game, didn't train at all and flew to Swaziland. They could make just one brief training session 4 hours before the game - that was the only training they had since their last game together several months ago. However, for today's match Sierra Leone is fully prepared as they spent the last two weeks training together. The expectations are for full stadium tonight. Swaziland have to deal with a long journey and the absence of two regular defenders. All in all, for me this is a clear home win with a handicap and high stakes. Unfortunately, the match is not offered yet on Asian bookies, but since I haven't yet played with BetVictor (and haven't limited accordingly), I will place my bet there (and be limited afterwards). Sierra Leone -1 European Handicap @ 1.93 (Bet Victor)
  5. [TABLE=class: table-main] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]Today, 31 May - Qualification[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]B's[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401541200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Uganda - Madagascar [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.24[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.79[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]9.79[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401543000-1-1-0-0]16:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Rwanda - Libya [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.06[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.21[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.59[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401553800-1-1-0-0]19:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Guinea Bissau - Central Africa [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.62[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.66[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.37[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401553800-1-1-0-0]19:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Sierra Leone - Swaziland [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.27[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.52[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]9.65[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]Tomorrow, 01 Jun - Qualification[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH]B's[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401627600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Botswana - Burundi [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.82[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.37[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.28[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401627600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Lesotho - Liberia [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.21[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.31[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.16[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401627600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Zimbabwe - Tanzania [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.50[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.10[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]6.14[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]5[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401634800-1-1-0-0]18:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Benin - São Tomé and Príncipe [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.05[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]10.69[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]29.50[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401634800-1-1-0-0]18:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Chad - Malawi [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.32[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.25[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.03[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1401638400-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Equatorial Guinea - Mauritania [/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.64[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.71[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.07[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value]5[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  6. Re: Serie B > Friday May 30th Bari - Novara 4-1 FT Bet won. It didn't come as easy as the score suggests - Novara took the lead in the beginning of the second half and Bari equalized 25 minutes before the final whistle. However, as it become obvious that Novara has nothing to play for, because their competitors were achieving good results, the visitors totally lowered their guard and got hammered by the home team.
  7. Re: Serie B > Friday May 30th Bari looks like a solid bet tonight. They are chasing play-off spots and need only the victory. Bari are showing terrific form in the last 2 months and they are very strong at home. Novara is in relegation play-off places, with no chances to go down in the table and some remote chance to reach safety places. For this purpose, they need to win in Bari, while Cittadella loses their match and Varese doesn't win. All this events together are very unlikely and Novara are the 2nd worst visitors in the league with only 10 points collected on the road. I think that visiting will most likely focus on their incoming relegation play-offs. If they play attacking football, which they have to, as they need only 3 points, then they should be easy pray for much stronger Bari in front of their crowd. Bari -1 @ 1.80 (SBO)
  8. Re: Liga Adelante > Sunday June 1st Sorry, wrong copy-paste....I was trying to post something, but the forum seemed not to be functioning well, so I copied it, in order to paste it 20 mins later when the forum starts functioning, but then I copied something else.... I will try briefly to re-write it. I am considering the game Real Madrid B - Sabadell. There should be some goals here, because this is a win-or-die match for both teams. Real is fighting for salvation, they are currently one spot below safety zone with two games to go. However, there are too many teams within a narrow range of 1 point difference and both Deportivo Alaves and Mallorca have games in home (Alaves against Numancia which has nothing to play for anymore). Hence, if Real doesn't get 3 points, this should mean that 99% they will relegate. So, they should go "all-in" tomorrow for the victory. Sabadell is in similar situation, only that they are in the upper end of the table and fighting for promotion play-offs. There are two teams which separate Sabadell from the last available play-off spot (remember that Barcelona B is not eligible to promote, so since they are in play-off places, one more place will be available in the table for play-offs). Once again, we have many teams within very narrow range of 1-2 points with just two games to go. Which means that even a draw will terminate Sabadell's chances to promote to Primera. Hence, they will be going all-in for the 3 points. In addition, Sabadell is 2nd in the "over 2.5" ranking and a huge percentage of their last 10 games were over 2.5. Real Madrid B is 7th. 1.74 (SBO) should be a good price, even if this league is notorious for low-scoring matches.
  9. Re: Liga Adelante > Sunday June 1st Matosinhos
  10. Re: French Open 2014 But isn't actually beating Vesnina and Schiavone an accomplishment for the young Croat?! They are both better ranked than her and if I am not mistaken, Tomljanovic was underdog in both encounters. So, she seems to be doing quite well so far... Also, Radwanska can be a little shaky and unconvincing against lower class opponents. I am not sure if the value here is not on Tomljanovic handicap.
  11. Re: Bulgaria>A PFG>2013-2014 Levski Sofia - Lazio Rome This friday Levski is celebrating their 100 anniversary and for this occasion they have invited Italian team Lazio Rome. Lazio is arriving without their NT players and with many younger players in the squad. Still they should have more quality than Levski it was a competitive game, but it isn't. This is a big holiday for Levski and the stadium has been sold out. Lazio is considered a friendly club for Levski (friendship between the supporters' fractions). Moreover, game is completely meaningless for Lazio as the season is over, the preparation for the next season will start in 6-7 weeks. I don't think they will have any motivation apart from taking the money Levski paid them for this friendly and go back to their summer vacations. I feel Lazio will take this easy and won't spoil the anniversary of their friendly team. Levski DNB @ 2.62 (bet365)
  12. Re: International Friendlies 13th May - 26th May I agree with you guys. I have watched Ecuador several times in SA qualifiers, as well as in one of their last friendlies - against Argentina. A very solid outfit, which is very good defensively. They are strong physically and they prefer to sit deeper and counter-attack. Ecuadorians have strong flanks. Against Argentina (it finished 0:0 as far as I remember) Ecuadorians outplayed the gauchos (they were without Messi) and should have won I think the Dutch may be in trouble here. Moreover, the normally very physical game of Ecuador might disturb them, because they don't want to risk any injuries before WC. Hollands' team at the moment lacks balance and they are amidst gender transition period - many too young and too inexperienced players, and some others who are already old, and very little in between.
  13. Re: Southampton v Everton > Saturday April 26th Southampton without very important Schneiderlin in central midfield, also their left wing seems weak with inexperienced Sam Gallagher replacing Ward Prowse who had very poor game at Villa Park. Everton's lineup looks very offensive and I think they will nick the 3 points here.
  14. Re: Europa League > Thursday March 20th Nobody is arguing that Valencia is the much more class team - they showed in Sofia where they won 3:0, playing with 10 men for most of the match. But I think you are heavily underestimating the motivation factor. We have seen this millions of times in two-leg games: the stronger team destroys the opponent in the first leg and they surprisingly draws/losses in the second. Just remember Uruguay-Jordan (the World Cup playoff) and how many people around the world lost their money on the "secure" home win in the second leg. There are countless similar examples. I mentioned Dinamo Kyiv, because Valencia didn't care at all about this second match at Mestalla, after winning 2:0 in the first. Now they are 3 goals ahead against less reputed team like Ludogorets. I somehow doubt their attitude will be different. Of course, it is possible that they still win and cover handicap, but honestly, Ludogorets are no pushovers to be beaten easily by a team which puts little to no efforts. The bare facts is that you would have got similar price (if not even higher) on Valencia if it was a first leg match, when Valencia would have been fully motivated. Now you get the same (if not lower) for a decided tie, where Valencia very likely will rest most of the regulars and will play with little motivation. This is a bad deal with respect to the prices I think.
  15. Re: Europa League > Thursday March 20th Simeon, I don't agree much. I watched Valencia second leg at home vs Dinamo Kyiv (had X2) and I was glad to see that nobody in Valencia actually cared about winning that match - empty stands, slow football, little attacking. The situation on Thursday is similar - Valencia have sealed the qualification and their thoughts will be completely on the weekend La Liga match. As about Ludogorets, they will surely be very motivated to get a result. From their potential missings there could arise some problems in the center of defense, but if Motsi starts along Alexandrov, they should be balanced there. The other potential missing players have replacements from similar class. Also don't forget that Ludo plays better away from home in Europe - they won all their 4 visits in Europa League so far (beating Lazio, PSV, Chornomorets Odessa and Dinamo Zagreb). Value here is on Ludo +1.5.
  16. Re: Australian Open 2014 But then maybe he should have tried handicaps, not directly heavy upsets, right?! Handicaps for very heavy favorites like Novak are way too low against lower ranked players, and often at such tournaments he might spare energy and make at least one out of the three sets competitive, which in most cases is enough to beat the handicaps. So, in this respect, backing handicaps makes sense. But betting Mayer to bet Djokovic in Grand Slam is just way too lavish and extraordinary.
  17. Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Saturday January 11th Lol, sorry for off-topic, but you are definitely a fervent United supporters. I objectively didn't see any diabolical anti United refereeing, just saw a clueless team with no winning mentality anymore. You better think twice before putting your bets on the team you love so much.
  18. Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Saturday January 11th Are you being serious, mate, or just making fun of United misery? :D
  19. Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Saturday January 11th Do not say that, mate! I think u are too much United fan and this may interfere with your betting judgment.
  20. Re: Placing a high volume of low limit bets at online bookmakers? But doesn't Betfair also limit you if you are winning on their fixed odds market (of course, they don't on the exchange)?!!!
  21. Re: AC Milan v FC Barcelona > Tuesday October 22nd Backing Milan without Balo, Sharaawy, Abbiati, Pazzini, and in poor form, against Barca, is simply not sensible. At the moment they are at the level of Udinese at best. The question is whether it is worth it (it has value) to back Barca at current prices (1.60 at best). Hard to say, if it wasn't for El Classico, I would have no doubts to back visitors, but now probably the price is close to its real value. But I strongly disagree with saying that Barca will be happy with a draw because it would keep them at first place. The only reason Barca might potentially be happy with a draw tonight is the upcoming El Classico. Otherwise, Barca never has any doubts about passing group stages, but they always play 100% motivated in any of these matches, simply because such are their standards. You know failing to win against depleted and poor Milan will certainly guarantee some strong critique in the local media against Tata and probably against some of the star players. Also, comparing this match to Osasuna's from last weekend is not the best strategy imo. Champions League is Champions League, Primera is Primera. And Osasuna is one of the toughest places to visit for the top teams in Spain, because they play very defensive and physically aggressive football, therefore Barca and Real frequently drop points there, it is no big deal. But Milan without their two best players, with some other missings and in poor form, doesn't deserve any support in betting sense. I think probably the best strategy here is to live-bet. I doubt Barca will start fast and furious, it is not their thing this season and in CL in general. Probably it will take them at least 20 minutes to get on.....and this time should be enough for Barca price to reach psychologically acceptable levels for away game in Champions League.
  22. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Final Score: CSKA - Levski 3:0 :nana:cigar It seems I have overestimated Levski pathetic mugs by expecting just a small loss - they are actually relegation material at the moment, KZL!
  23. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Today there is the big match in our league. The derby of Sofia and Bulgaria, the match between the two fierce enemies - CSKA against Levski This is the big derby of Bulgaria and although the teams are yet far away from the first places this is the game that everybody is looking for. The Crisis in Levski Levski have been doing their worst start in the whole history and it is happening in a very special season - their 100 anniversary. The team is seriously threatened of falling below the first seven at the end of the regular season. They already changed three coaches - Nikolay Mitov after elimination from Europa League and Slavisha Yokanovich after another win-less home game two weeks ago. The third changed coach, however, made the headlines all over the world - Ivaylo Petev - twice champion with Ludogorets, was offered and accepted the job, but at his official presentation press-conference, angry ultra supporters of Levski physically attacked him and undressed him, which of course made Ivaylo Petev resign only few hours after taking the job. Now Levski is coached by Antoni Zdravkov - their own cadre, but with poor coaching CV and little experience. The Coaches Here the advantage of CSKA is huge. Their coach Stoycho Mladenov is one of the best and most experienced in the country. He is known as amazing motivator and a master of tactical games. Against him there is the ambitious but very inexperienced Zdravkov. In my opinion he is not a match for Mladenov and has nothing to offer against him besides pure motivation. Psychological Advantage Levski's new manager made announced that his team is the favorite in the derby. A very poor move from him imo, which only shows his lack of experience. Levski cannot be the favorite, because they play very poor since the start of the season and they struggle against almost anyone. So, it is not an exaggeration to say that Levski can afford the role of favorite only against 3-4 teams in the whole league. Now coach Zdravkov only enforced extra psychological burden on his already very fragile and fickle psychologically players. The psychological advantage is 100% on the side of CSKA. They are on a long winning streak - 5 consecutive clean-sheet victories, they got 4 points advantage before Levski. They should feel much more comfortable, as failing to win will not hurt them drastically. In contrast, if Levski loses this game, it could be potentially disastrous for the team and can bring the whole club into disarray and chaos. They have a series of very hard games afterwards and it won't be surprising if they even approach the relegation places - something totally shocking and unheard of. If Levski loses, the extreme sections among the fans can turn against the players and probably the owner, and other shameful events, similar to the undressing of Ivaylo Petev, might happen. The Moral of the Teams Another strong advantage of CSKA. Although technically the two teams are relatively close in terms of class, the current team of CSKA is composed of players with very strong fighting spirit. They fight hard, play aggressive and together with Ludogorets are the team which is best in man-to-man challenges, tackling, and pressure. Against them, they have a Levski team which possesses some quality players, but on overall they play too soft and in my opinion are too fragile mentally. If the game doesn't go their way, they frequently break down. This is a very important aspect, as CSKA-:Levski is the biggest derby in the country and it is full of tension and intensity. According to my observation, most often it is won by the more aggressive and tough mentally team, even if it is inferior technically. CSKA Defense This is the strongest weapon of CSKA. The best defense in the league with record of clean sheets - 9 out of 12 games!!! If CSKA takes the lead, i think it will be almost impossible for Levski to come back, as coach Mladenov has built a team which has mastered closing down games after taking the lead. In contrast, Levski's defense is their biggest shortcoming. Very fragile and giving gifts nearly every game. The Outcome I think CSKA will win this one and will deepen the crisis in Levski. They are just way too solid in the back and it will be extremely hard for Levski to score a goal agaisnt them. Meanwhile, Levski's defense will sooner or later in the game give one of their usual "presents", which CSKA attack should make use of. As I wrote, coach Mladenov is a specialist in closing down games after taking the lead. He would feel the midfield with aggressive defensive midfielders and lock any space in the defense, thus minimizing any chance for comeback. Levski's main threat should be Dutch winger Rodriguez, but while he was very good in the first months after his arrival, in the last 1-2 months it has become evident that opposition coaches have discovered the cure against him - they simply put more people in his zone, and since Levski doesn't have good full-backs, Rodriguez gets isolated from the game. I am sure that experienced coach like Mladenov will neutralize him CSKA @ 2.45 (SBO) Levski goals Under 0.5 (i.e. CSKA to keep clean sheet) @ 2.80 (Marathon) Correct Score: CSKA-Levski 1:0 @ 7.50 (Coral)
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