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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Poland v Russia June 12th Russia were definitely the more solid, more technical and cohesive team. The Poles relied on pure enthusiasm and pace, but they were weak defensively and over-simplistic in attack: make two or three quick passes and shoot from distance. Levandovski was particularly annoying in this respect. I think that Russia would have won if it wasn't a second group-phase game, with all the related calculations and cautiousness. After the surprising shoot from Blazikovsky, the Russians didn't try hard to push for the win. On any other day, in the last 30 minutes we would have seen at least several clear-cut chances for Russia, but not tonight, when Russians were aware that they keep the leading place in the group with a draw.
  2. Re: Spain v Rep of Ireland While I do agree that Ireland is a very similar team to Switzerland, I don't expect any resemblance with the game from WC2010. At that time, it was an opening game in a supposedly easy group. This time it is the second game, just after the Spaniards fail to win against Italy, in a group with at least two other very tough contenders - Italy and Croatia. Spain realizes that failing to win against ROI will put them in a very nasty position. So, I think they will be 100% motivated and will push very hard from the beginning. Having said that, I am still not sure If I see any value in the game. Although I am pretty certain in Spain's victory, the price is not tempting. A "-1.5" handicap could be an option, but in case that Spain misses their opportunities in the first half (and as I've watched so much of them, I noticed that they tend to miss very easily clear-cut chances), a 1:0 scoreline will be very likely. I would wait until the line-ups are released. If Spain once again tries the "light forward" bull**** from the Italy game, I think I will back off. While if they use the likes of Llorente and Soldado, I will go for a "-1.5" handicap.
  3. Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF MPLouis, just to make clear - I never wrote that playing big handicaps on these two games is a good strategy. I said that I was going to pick very low risk/low coefficient events with big money. I took over 2.5 for both games at 1.22 (US) and 1.18 for a combined of 1.43. My bet won easily. However, as I watched both games (simultaneously for some part), I am certain that the bookies underestimated hugely Antigua and Guyana. I think they had almost no info about these teams (such like us - tipsters), and therefore, they decided to play very safe. I think that the bookies are now a bit sorry after they watched the games, because they could have put more attractive and decent values on the handicaps, attract much higher participation rate, and practically win a lot. Indeed, Mexico and US were far superior than their opponents, but Antigua and Guyana showed some quality and they definitely did not deserve to be put in the same pocket with the likes of San Marino and Lichtenstein in Europe by the bookies. Both teams were decent and tight in defense, and showed good organization of their play. If I have to make comparison with European football, I would say that Guyana and Antigua are somehow similar in class to teams like Moldavia and Albania, but definitely not the minnows. And such teams do not deserve a price of 1.16 for a -2 handicap. I would say that Antigua and Guyana are already at the level of the tough CONCACAF teams like Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica and Trinidad.
  4. Re: Euro U21 Qualifiers Portugal - Albania 3:1, bet won. However, not so sure about the value part. I did not watch it, but Portugal have scored two very early goals and if it wasn't for the Albanian goal soon after, the bet might have lost.
  5. Re: World Cup 2014 - Qualifications: CONCACAF Indeed, the bookies try to block any real value in this games in order to tempt more inexperienced player to go for very large handicaps (-4; -5 or so) with lots of money, which I believe is a wrong strategy. Since for me such games between powerful sides and minnows are very profitable betting niche if used reasonably, I have found exactly two ways to extract value from them: 1. Live Betting. It works in the cases where the "Big Favorite" starts very slowly the game, and then intensifies suddenly the tempo after the 30-35th minute. In such case, a really great value can be made. However, this strategy has three flaws: - in most of the cases the Big Favorite scores early which turns the strategy void. - it is difficult to get the "right moment" when the team starts to really increase the pressure. - it is still risky, because after wasting about 30 minutes, it is not unlikely that the Big Favorite does not reach the desired value threshold in the end (3 or more goals for instance). 2. Betting Big Money on a combination of events with a extremely low risk. It is about reaching a low coefficient of about 1.40-1.50 with very low risk. You cannot get it from a single "David-Goliat" game, because the low risk events in such games are priced much lower. But if you combine let's say two such games you can reach the desired 1.40-1.50 coefficients. Of course, in order to make profit on it, you have to play big money. By the way, if you look in retrospective at the HOME games of Barcelona and Real Madrid this season in the Primera and the Cup of Spain, you will see that this strategy would have worked perfectly well. You take account only of home games in Spain of these two mastodons, because away games, as well as Euro tournaments, always involve more risk. Next, you exclude from the list the home games against the toughest other sides in the league, which also involve extra risk. I would put in this list: Atletico Madrid, Atletic Bilbao, Valencia, Malaga and Sevilla. Of course, under you own discretion, you might also exclude other games, given specific circumstances (e.g. Messi and Ronaldo injured). Then, you start two combine in a double column consecutive selected home games of Barca and Real, and play always "over 2.5". As far as I remember (correct me if wrong), the overs in most home games of Barca and Real were priced aroung 1.20-1.22, which in a combination reaches the desired coeff. threshold. And guess what the result of this strategy would have been?! It would have won basically any time this year. Even if you include the games against "the tough sides" in the list, it would have still been successful and profitable strategy.
  6. Re: Euro U21 Qualifiers Something I just came upon: Portugal - Albania Albania AH +3 @ 1.55 I admit I have little information on both teams but looking at their stats this bet looks so much value: In the last ten games Albania lost just once with more than 3 goals (0:5 in Holland in a friendly). They got beaten twice "3:0" (a result which would return the bet). On the other hand, the Portuguese, although a very good side, similarly to the senior team are not much into crushing victories: they won only once with more than two goals in their last ten games. I see that the Albanese are prices here as if they are football dwarfs (similar pricing to San Marino and Andorra), which they certainly aren't, as can be seen from their results. Neither Portugal seem so convincing to get such price.
  7. Hey, I have a question addressed to somebody with closer impressions from the football in the region.This weekend there are the qualifiers in this zone and i am interested in two particular games: - USA - Antigua and Barbuda - Mexico - Gayana. I am planning to play them in a combo of handicaps, looking to reach a total coefficient of 1.50 (-1.5 for both Mexico and US will do). And I am planning to put a very big stake on it to make up for the meager coefficients. I know that at first sight these do not seem any value at all. But from my impressions about CONCACAF, I have noticed that both Mexico and the US usually crash their opponents at home (probably with the rare exception of the few decent local sides, such like Honduras, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica etc.). Antigua/Barbuda and Gayana seem to me like football dwarfs who will probably be beaten very badly away from home against the two mastodons of the region for whom this will be the start of the campaign. Of course, given that I plan to put very big stakes on it plus combination of both games, I won't be looking for very large handicaps which sometimes might be risky (dominant side slowing down the tempo after scoring a few quick goals) - just a secure two goal difference. My problem is that the information on both Guyana and Antigua/Barbuda is really scarce. They had very few games against relatively decent sides and the majority of their matches is against other football dwarfs, hence, no conclusion may be drawn. I did not manage to find any games of the two sides against either Mexico and the US. I have made some huge profits with this strategy: solid sides against complete and utter outsiders (San Marino likes), combo of few games, huge stakes, low coefficient, not too big handicaps. But now I am being cautious because of the lack of reliable info. So, I am looking for anybody with more insider info to tip me about it?!!
  8. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 Renton, it is very likely, but it is not absolutely certain. And even if it is fixed, I don't recommend "-1" handicap. I think would rather be a narrow victory for Levski. I think that "live betting" is the better option here. I personally smell two possible scenarios: a) surprising twist (beroe takes the lead and losses the game) b) late over (0:0 around the 60th minute and three quick goals afterwards).
  9. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 Fixed game?!! Between Svetkavitza and Montana?!! Noooo, this cannot happen, i don't believe it! :p:D By the way, on Friday there is a game Levski Sofia against Beroe. Watch it out closely. These two teams have solid history of arranging games in the past few years. The current coach of Beroe who has been managing for the past few years (surprise - just by accident since when they started the suspicious series of matches with Levski), has already signed a contract with Levski to take over in summer. Beroe has nothing to play for and these game is crucial for Levski if they want to qualify for Europe League. Of course, I am not saying "bet your apartment on it". But it is not a bad idea to follow the game live. Especially if Beroe takes the lead at half-time, I think I will go for a "surprising" turn of event in the second half.
  10. Re: UEFA Champions League > Semi-Final 2nd Leg > Tuesday 24 April I see the general view here is that the value lies with Chelsea. I have very much the opposite opinion. We will probably never get any time soon such a good coefficient for "must-win" for Barcelona at home. 1.700 for a "-1.5" handicap for Barcelona for a game where they desperately need two-goal difference at Camp Nou against team which is currently not at their best - I am sorry, but I will take this bet any time without a single doubt. This type of bet would have failed only few times in the last years with this dream team of Barcelona. "Barcelona - Chelsea 0:0" and "Barcelona - Inter 0:0" are the two occasions where it did happen. Let's see which factors were present during these two games and check if they exist now: 1. Barcelona were leaders in the Primera and certain winners. Hence, they had already guaranteed one of the two important trophies. - Now Barca have already failed in the Primera. Champions League is a must-win trophy for them or else the season would be considered failure. 2. Barcelona were on a big winning streak just before the game. Indeed, we have a small exception here - Barca had lost the first game in Milan against Inter, however, it was an exceptional loss, while the Catalons had been winning in a big consequence in the Primera. Hence, it is reasonable to assume that the factor "underestimation" was present among Barcelona's ranks. - Tonight, Barca faces Chelsea after two consecutive defeats (sth unheard of during Guardiola s era), one of them against Real at Camp Nou. In my view, this means only one thing: Barcelona will not show even the least sign of underestimation and lack of concentration. 3. On both occasions, Barcelona opposed teams with great defensive strength and which were in their greatest shape in their domestic leagues. Inter were dominating the Serie A, and Chelsea, while they had poor first half of the season (similar to now), they were absolutely outstanding during Hiddink and were smashing their opposition both in Premiership and CL. Indeed, Chelsea are also improving a lot under Di Mateo. But they are not at all dominating against the other sides in the Premiership. They are still outside "top 4" and they are still struggling a lot in their games. Moreover, their defense is far from solid: they concede a lot and regularly. In sum, I don't see how this team of Chelsea will withstand a fully motivated and concentrated Barcelona. It is obvious for everybody what their strategy will be: park the bus in front and hope for the football Gods to be with them. However, neither their defense is solid enough, not they can rely on Barca's loose concentration or under-estimation. In fact, Barcelona will be furious like wild dogs tonight. I will go for the normal handicap (-1.5), but if the home goal comes early, it would not be surprising or speculative to expect something really ugly to happen to Chelsea. Barcelona -1.5 at 1.75
  11. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 CSKA - Cherno More 4:1 Huge misfortune. A fake Man United-like penalty for Cherno More and the bet is lost.
  12. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 CSKA - Cherno More CSKA to Win to Null at 1.95 (bet365) It is usually hard to find any value in CSKA games, because CSKA is winning a lot lately and is the traditional number one team in the country (hence, low coefficients), but they are not very convincing, have many problems with the squad, and the victories are very narrow and tough. However, I think that this particular game presents very good value in the "CSKA to win without conceding a goal" market. CSKA have 7 clean sheets in a row. The mentality of the coach is oriented towards not conceding, and looking for narrow victories (usually 1:0). The opponent - Cherno More - are perfect match for this mentality. They also rely on heavy defense and "underish" football. However, they are missing several key players for this game. Also, it is expected the crowd at the stadium to be very excited and fanatic, given the good prospects for title winning (after five dry years). I think that these two factors will be more than enough for CSKA to score their usual one or two goals, and of course, to keep their regular clean sheet. I am also thinking of trying "CSKA and under 2.5", but the missings in Cherno More squad leave open prospects for possible third goal for CSKA. So, I will stick with my first choice.
  13. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 0-4 at half-time. Easy like Sunday morning...
  14. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2011/12 Minyor-Ludogorez is still on offer at 12bet!!! Minyor once again confirmed that they are playing with the junior squad and most book-makers did not list the game at all. Of course there are some chances that they are bluffing, but at around 15 pm (CET) we will have certain information about the line-ups. I will post here this info around this time. If Minyor indeed plays with the junior formation, than this IS A RISK-FREE MONEY!
  15. Re: Bulgaria, A PFG 2011/12 Other than this doubtful "little Sofia derby", here are some other suggestions for this round, for today's games. 1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Montana Montana +2 AH at 1.475 (bet365) I am very surprised to see such a value for this huge handicap. Montana are a tough nut to crack, and although I guess that in the end they will surrender to the home pressure, I absolutely don't see them losing by more than two goals. It is simply a value bet - I believe the coefficient for this asian handicap should not be more than 1.20 (at least, I would not offer more on betfair). So, the difference is pure value in my opinion. 2. Kaliakra - Vidima under 2.5 at 1.66 or Vidima at 3.00 The first offer is the safe one. These are two clueless teams with very little quality who are going to play on a narrow and rundown pitch. I just don't see the goals coming here. Regarding the second option (Vidima victory), I have to warn that this is simply based on the assumption of another arranged game in the Bulgarian A PFG. Kaliakra are also quite suspicious side regarding their fair play. They have already surrendered in A PFG due to the severe financial pressures on them. On the other hand, Vidima shows some ambition to fight for their lives in the division (currently they are a few points away from salvation). If they want to stay in the group - this is the game to win. They already managed to get a very suspicious away victory against Lokomotiv Sofia two weeks ago, now I expect another one.
  16. Re: Bulgaria, A PFG 2011/12 I know it is a bit of a late notice, but I am spotting a possible chance for a risk-free win in an likely arranged game - Lokomotiv Sofia - Slavia Sofia. The two teams are known for being probably the most doubtful sides regarding fair play. Number of their games each season are considered suspicious and are removed by the bookies. Lastly, in the "little Sofia derby" from several months ago, when Slavia was facing Loko (and was needing the victory much more), this was the only game from the round in Bulgaria which was not included at all in the books, despite being considered a local derby and rivalry. Of course, the game ended with a narrow home victory. Today, Lokomotiv needs the victory much more cause they face a relegation threat. Slavia are comfortable in the mid-table, and might be looking to cash in on the big coefficients for their loss. Yesterday in the evening it was 5.0 for a home win. I put a small stake. Today I just checked bet365, and saw that the coefficients for home win have fallen to 3.75. I do think it is worth a try betting on Lokomotiv victory. Of course, this is all just my logical reasoning. I don't want to mislead anyone - i have no insider info. But arranged games do exist a lot in A PFG, and this one is absolutely suspicious.
  17. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6 March Mate, you come from Eastern Europe, don't you?! ;)
  18. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6 March No, seriously, I don't want to be bitching, but this is a betting forum, not an Arsenal supporters pub (or any other team's supporters). How did you come to the conclusion that Milan is "poor", and Arsenal are "a lot better", but just lost by accident?!! :wall Look, I have no personal feelings towards neither of the two teams. But it is beyond any reason and any logic to claim things like this. AC Milan are currently one of the teams in the best shape in Europe. Excelling both domestically and abroad. Having world-class players. Being extremely consistent and stable (hardly ever allowing for surprise results). And they smashed the living shit of Arsenal in the first game. Against them you got a good but very inconsistent team, reliant on one single player - Robin Van Persie. A team without much experience and with generally low morals. A team which, except for last London derby, very rarely outplays the opponents by more than one goal...
  19. Re: UEFA Champions League > Tuesday 6 March You do think that "no way in the world are they a better side" is a good and sufficient reasoning?!! How, on earth, you justify "a must" like that?!
  20. Re: Man City v Blackburn > Sat 25th Feb Paul, I know what u mean, I do agree with you. That's the only reason which still makes me think between relying on this single bet, or backing it up with some other bets. The big risk with this bets is that often the favorite totally slows down the tempo after the second/third goal. Regarding, this game, I rely on two things. The first one I already mentioned - Blackburn's contribution to this bet with a goal. And the second - the fierce competition of four top strikers in City's attack, which now become even five with Tevez' return. In this way, the substitutes (who are players of great value and class) are very motivated to push for goals even when the game is dead already.
  21. Re: Man City v Blackburn > Sat 25th Feb Although I support Liverpool, the team that this year I love most in the Premiership for the good and stable return on bets is Manchester City (especially for their home shape). This afternoon, I see another chance for big cash-in on City's game at Etihad. At first, i was thinking about going for a AH, given the great defense at home for Man City. However, I think that City&Over3.5 is somehow more tempting, because in this case Blackburn's goal(s) will be also working for my cause. And Blackburn do love scoring goals (as well as conceding). I expect something like 3:1 or 4:1 as a result from this encounter. Manchester City over 3.5 goals @ 2.7 Paddypower
  22. Re: Chelsea v Bolton > Sat 25th Feb I surely support the colleagues who believe that Chelsea's odds are complete joke! Chelsea are in a terrible situation, not only regarding their sports shape, but mostly their mentality and internal climate. I barely remember them defeating an opponent with more than one goal difference in the last three months. And they haven't been really convincing at home. Bolton are shite, too, but they do show some improvement since the beginning of January. They are performing very well in the FA Cup, and they had decent games against Arsenal and Liverpool. And the major factor that I consider here, is that actually Bolton's harsh destiny at the moment is very much due to their devastating home performance. I am checking the table, and I see that they hold the last place with respect to home form, while when u consider away performance, they raise whole six places ahead. Last, it might sound paranoid, but I have a feeling that some players in Chelsea's dressing room are working against AVB. If this is the case, then they would be pretty much aware that a failure today will be the last nail in the coffin for the Portuguese specialist. Bolton AH +1.5,+2 at 1.975 with Bet365 (оdds going down since yesterday!)
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