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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July This doesn't mean a thing. Estonian football is one of the worst in Europe. Probably only the leagues of San Marino, Malta, Liechtenstein etc. are worse.
  2. Re: Was it worth to bet on World Cup 2014? It was profitable for me as I recorded 5.58 Units profit (all bets and stats were published by me in the forum). This was my first World Cup as a bettor. Actually, the first big international tournament - as I don't consider "Confederation Cup" as important event and I had just several bets on Euro 2012 (several months after I started betting). I have noticed World Cup betting is a completely different experience than any other competition betting, therefore, this being my first such competition as a bettor, I have done many mistakes I would have avoided if I had the experience with World Cup.
  3. Re: Europa League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Wednesday 16th to Thursday 17th J Lisandri, i know you are more into Norwegian football, but since you are Albanian, can you provide some info about Flamurtari?! Petrolul is excellent team and they are performing great in summer prep, and they are full of ambitions to make a break-through in Europe.
  4. Re: Europa League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Wednesday 16th to Thursday 17th J Very difficult call, mate. First, I have absolutely no idea about Hungarian football and about Diosgyori. I am also not sure Bulgarian footie is stronger than Hungarian - the fact is that in the recent years Debreceni eliminated Levski and Litex, in the 1990 MTK eliminated CSKA and I honestly don't remember in my life-time Bulgarian team eliminating Hungarian team. Okay, I agree Ludogorets should be better than any Hungarian team, but not sure about the other Bulgarian teams. Litex simply didn't convince me. First, their coach Balakov was a fantastic player, but I think he is complete joke as a manager and I doubt he changed so much over the past two years (two years ago he was certainly a joke manager). Against Veris, Litex were helped a lot by the red card in the 25th minute. Still, Veris missed absolute sitter to equalize the score in the beginning of the second half, which could have made the task for Litex very very hard. Litex's defense made also several other big mistakes, which went unpunished. These Hungarians should be surely a better team than Veris.
  5. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July About Santa Coloma-Macabi, I don't know if anyone already remarked this, but the game had to be played in Tel Aviv, but was moved to Andorra, because of the Gaza conflict. This means that with very high likelihood, the second leg will be on neutral venue, instead of Tel Aviv. This could affect to some extent MAcabi's attitude, as now they probably won't have any incentive to "decide everything on home soil".
  6. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July About Malmo-Ventspils: I am not much of a follower of the Swedish league, but I am aware Malmo are very solid. But I happened to follow a bit the Latvia league this year, because of some bets, and I am familiar with Ventspils. The team had just recovered from a huge crisis - they were in win-less run of 7-8 games, which is tremendous for such a poor league like the Latvian, where half of the teams at least are amateur levels. Ventspils recorded two big wins against outsiders in the last 2 games and gave some indications they are out of the crisis, but it is a fact that most of the last two months they played incredibly crappy football.
  7. Re: Champions League Second Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 15th & Wed 16th July Ludogorets - Dudelange I know Luxemburg teams have improved and Dudelange stunned RB Salzburg a few years ago, but I simply cannot see anything different than big Ludo win. It is not a bet about the Luxemburg champions, it is entirely about Ludogorets Razgrad. They are at the moment one of the strongest teams in the Balkans. They became champions for the third time in a row and this spring managed a 1/8 final for the Europa League. Now their ambition is to attack a place in Champions League and I think they have great chance to achieve this. For the past three years Ludogorets never sold a key player - they kept all their stars and continuously improved their team by buying new quality signings. Their last new signing was a right full-back (the only position they were vulnerable) from Primera Division for more than 1 million euros. So, you see that when a team from the Balkans buys a right back for such money, than they mean serious business. Ludo team is perfectly balanced in each area - great goal-keeper, solid defense, the best pair of holding midfielders in the league, great pace and trickery on the flanks, high class in attack in the face of their topscorer and Slovenia international Roman Beziak, a big squad and a lot of variety for each position. In the summer prep they won each game with big margin and ease, including a 4:2 win over Romanian champions Steaua (Ludo were leading 4:0 before they let two Romanian goals in the end). The most important reason is that this team simply takes every game seriously. There might be different reasons for this. It could be the fact that Ludo have practically two squads of players with equal class, which makes nobody in the team safe for their place, so they give their best in every match. It could be their owner - a self-obsessed and over-ambitious local oligarh who insists on winning every match and puts big pressure on his team. But the fact is that when Ludogorets are in shape, they are probably the safest dog to back in all of European leagues. They just never underestimate opponents and they play bad in the role of a big dog only when they are in a bad shape (usually happens to them in April/May when they are physically exhausted). In the beginning of the season they normally show their best games and I cannot see past a big Ludo win - 4-5 to nil. Ludo -2 EH @ 1.78 (Bwin)
  8. Re: World Cup 2014 > Outright Betting Messi winning Golden Ball?!! Did I just stopped to understand the game well or there were actually at least several guys who performed better than him and had bigger impact?! What was actually his impact in knock-out phase, besides one assist to Di Maria?! I would say even if we consider only Argentine players, Mascherano had bigger impact on the team, at least in knock-out games.
  9. Re: Third Place Play-Off - Brazil v Netherlands > Saturday July 12th Definitely value on Brazil here in my view. Tremendous motivation gap between these two teams - Netherlands not needing and not caring about this game, while Brazil needing desperately this match to try to at least a little redeem themselves in the eyes of their nation. Netherlands will be missing Robben, Van Persie and Snejder (they don't want to play in this 3rd place game), which is a huge drop in class. The Dutch will use Depay, Lens and Huntelaar in front, and while Huntelaar still got class, Depay and Lens are in my eyes very over-rated and limited players. Particularly Depay is a guy with awful finishing skills. The Dutch defense has been doing excellent work so far, but this was at the price of utmost physical effort. They were running a lot and covering persistently for each other. I don't think that after 2 consecutive extra times, they will keep even close level of physical effort for a meaningless game. A without top physical performance, the Dutch defense might not be as good and stable. Brazil welcomes back Thiago Silva and probably Willian will be a stiker. I expect a relatively easy Brazilian win. Brazil @ 2.15 (bet365)
  10. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju No, no reasons for this. I actually think it is a decent bet, given that the Moldavans showed little action up-front in the first leg. Just don't over-stake it, they are not from San MArino after all.
  11. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju You can still try it, although tomorrow the weather will be better and it will be played on a better and bigger pitch (national stadium in Sofia). But if you feel uncomfortable without it, you can very easily trade it with another bookie, especially in "live betting".
  12. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju Hi, did you have any problem with the pay-off?! I just made account with these guys just for the purpose of this bet (not offered anywhere else, where players from Bulgaria are eligible to register). Placed 300 euros, the bookie took them all from my account and after the game I checked my account and I see that it have calculated the bet as if I had placed only 9.20 euros on it (thus, getting just peanuts). Of course, if the bet was a loser, I am sure they would have kept all the 300 euros for themselves. Totally gutted about it, wrote more about this case in the "Bookmakers" section.
  13. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju If you are with Bet 365, you can always speak with the customer service and ask them to void the bet, if you want to. They have always done this for me in similar circumstances.
  14. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju Litex-Veris postponed.
  15. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju Important Info for Litex-Veris: Huge rain in Lovech all day long which continues up till this minute. Not sure if the drainage system of the pitch can withstand so much water force. In mid-May Litex played Levski in the local league under similar conditions (huge rain storm) and the field was in disastrous condition during the game (swimming pool). I heard they made some improvements, but not sure how well they worked on this. Probably unders are good value.
  16. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju
  17. Re: Europa League 1st Qualifying Round Second Legs > Tuesday 8th and Thursday 10th Ju
  18. Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July 5:2 final result, bet won! The Faroe team scored three quick goals, but then probably underestimated the game and conceded two in the second half, then two more goals for the home side sealed the deal.
  19. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th After it was 0:5 in the 29th minute, it was clear that such a bet was already just a gamble, but it luckily won in the end. I still believe it was good value, and if the game was more normal, it would have landed. About the game - credit to Germany for finally giving up the boring and predictable Guardiola tiki-taka and going back to Heynkes "blietzkrieg" football, but I still think it was mainly Brazil being terrible, rather than Germany being so outstanding. It was clear before the game to all knowledgeable in football that Germany was better in every line and the only thing that Brazil could offer to this game were set pieces and passion. Hence, the smart thing for Brazil to do was to sit back, try to kill off the game rhythm, keep the full-backs mainly in their zone to protect them (instead, Marcelo was rushing forward as an attacker), play the hardworking and good in defense Willian, instead of the lazy and clumsy Hulk, etc., etc....Brazil did just the opposite and was severely punished. After the second goal, I felt the Brazilians were in complete and utter "zombie" state of mind, and under such conditions, even a team like Algeria could have crushed them. World Cup 2014 Stats: 33 Bets, 21 Wins, 11 Losses, 1 Void + 7.60 Units (1 Unit per bet)
  20. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th Lol, I heard a lot about this back then in my country Bulgaria, but never thought this conspiracy rumor has gone viral all over the world. It was just something that happens on a regular basis in football - the technically better team is being tactically and physically outwitted by the other side, who wins by using counter-pressing football. Just remember Real-Bayern, as well as all the wins of Mourinho against Barcelona.
  21. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th I must agree with you. If I hadn't already placed my bet, I would have probably taken this. Hard to imagine it will finish with 1 yellow for Brazil and 0 for Germany.
  22. Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July HB - Lincoln Red Imps First match finished 1:1 and now the Gibraltaran debutants are set to travel to the Faroe Islands for the return leg. It is hard to judge Gibraltaran teams as there's very little basis for comparison. They certainly showed they are above San Marino levels, but probably not better than Andorrans (and certainly below Malta and Luxemburg). I believe there might be value on HB handicaps. Faroe teams in general and HB in particular are strong at home. For instance, in their last two CL campaigns, HB defeated Malmo with 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Red Bull Salzburg. The first leg in Gibraltar seems to have been equal in terms of performance, but despite the home advantage, Lincoln also had the benefit to play in very hot conditions, which must have troubled the visitors. Weather in Torshavn will be entirely different tomorrow: around 10 degrees and light rain. In similar circumstances, last year Faroe champions Streymur drew in Andorra - 2:2, but then crushed their opponents at home with 5:1. Of course, we speak for different teams, but probably it is a proof of the very solid home advantage of Faroe teams against other minnows. It is an interesting fact that Gibraltar national team played Faroe in Gibraltar several months ago and lost in Gibraltar with 1-4. It is interesting mainly because there are a number of players from HB and Lincoln in both national teams. Even one of the goals was scored by HB topscorer Edmundson. This probably shows the real class difference between the two sides, which was probably mitigated in the heat of Gibraltar. Last but not least, Faroe league is under way, unlike the Gibraltar one which should suggest better fitness. Also, Gibraltar league seems to have been established very recently and they obviously had their first season now. They have played only 14 games for the whole tournament (Faroe league comprises of 27 games per team). HB-1.5 @ 1.98 (Marathon)
  23. Re: Semi-Final - Brazil v Germany > Tuesday July 8th That's what I meant, probably my wording was incorrect. The point is that a yellow card here will bring no punishment for the finals, unlike in all previous games, which could affect both players (being one idea more aggressive) and referees (being less tolerant).
  24. Re: Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July Look at the reaction of Celik goalkeeper.
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