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Fedar

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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Confederations Cup 2013 http://www.euronews.com/2013/06/13/nigeria-players-strike/
  2. Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Ethiopia - South Africa I can't understand the odds which treat SA as a heavy favorite. So far in the qualifiers, Ethiopia didn't lose a single game, they drew 1:1 away to their opponent. At home they have three victories without even conceding a goal. In all official games in the last two years they didn't lose at home and had two draws - 2:2 with Nigeria and 0:0 with Benin. SA are 2-2-0 so far in the group. Away from home they defeated CAR and drew 1:1 with Botswana. The victory in Central African Rep. was the only away win of SA in official match in the last three years. SA are 60th in the world ranking, while Ethiopia are 106th, however the home team is improving a lot in the last two years and I don't think that the class gap between the two is huge, if any. The last edition of the cup of nations showed that Ethiopia and South Africa are more or less comparable in class. Ethiopia is leading the table with 2 points advantage with two games to go (only group winner qualifies). However, if they draw, then Ethiopia must win against Central African Republic away from home in the last match, which could be a very hard task, so I believe that a strong home team will try to do the job at their stadium. The game will take place in Addis Abbaba, where it is usually very hot during this time of the year, while in South Africa it is winter (of course, still African winter). Accidentally, in the last week weather in Ethiopia have been pretty mild and for the game expected temperatures are about 20 degrees Celsius with light rain. I don't agree at all with current prices. Against such tough home team like Ethiopia, only the top dogs of the continent can deserve such price - Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, but surely SA is not amongst them. In my virtual book, I would give similar chances to the two teams with small advantage for Ethiopia. At current prices, I see a huge value in home win. Ethiopia @ 4.18
  3. Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 12-16 June Sorry, the above table looks very messy, I have no experience opening such table-threads. May some moderator fix this mess?!
  4. [TABLE=class: table-main] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][TABLE=class: table-main] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]12 Jun - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371040200-1-1-0-0]15:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Malawi - Kenya[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.58[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.53[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.88[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371063600-1-1-0-0]22:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Namibia - Nigeria[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.52[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.48[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.61[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]14 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371223800-1-1-0-0]18:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Libya - Togo[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.74[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.39[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]15 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Botswana - Central Africa[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.41[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.06[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.88[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Uganda - Angola[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.36[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.91[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Zambia - Sudan[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]10.22[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371306600-1-1-0-0]17:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Congo - Burkina Faso[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.56[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.04[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.68[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371308400-1-1-0-0]18:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Gabon - Niger[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.99[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.31[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371312000-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Liberia - Senegal[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]5.91[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.64[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.53[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371317400-1-1-0-0]20:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Cape Verde - Sierra Leone[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.84[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.36[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.01[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371326400-1-1-0-0]23:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Morocco - Gambia[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.28[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.88[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]9.66[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3]16 Jun 2013 - Qualification - Second stage[/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371384000-1-1-0-0]15:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Tanzania - Ivory Coast[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.24[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.13[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.40[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Ethiopia - South Africa[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.18[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.42[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.79[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Lesotho - Ghana[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]8.78[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.76[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.30[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0]16:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Mozambique - Egypt[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.35[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.33[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.79[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371389400-1-1-0-0]16:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Rwanda - Algeria[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.74[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.47[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.69[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371393000-1-1-0-0]17:30[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]D.R. Congo - Cameroon[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.51[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.12[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]2.07[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371398400-1-1-0-0]19:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Equatorial Guinea - Tunisia[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.88[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]3.49[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.67[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371402000-1-1-0-0]20:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Guinea - Zimbabwe[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.33[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.38[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]8.69[/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371405600-1-1-0-0]21:00[/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2]Mali - Benin[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]1.41[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]4.11[/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp]7.23[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371040200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371063600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371223800-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371301200-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371306600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371308400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371312000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371317400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371326400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: center nob-border] [TH=class: first2 tl, colspan: 3][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: table-dummyrow] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371384000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371387600-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371389400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371393000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371398400-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: table-time datet t1371402000-1-1-0-0][/TD] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: odds-nowrp][/TD] [TD=class: center info-value][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: name table-participant, colspan: 2][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
  5. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Bet won, but not quite happy with this one. I wouldn't take it again if, let's say, the same match takes place tomorrow. France is just way too negative and impotent. Seems that the negative football of Ligue 1 have spread to the national team. Brasilians were the only ones working for the over 2.5 all the match. The right bet here was surely Brasil Over 1.5 goals, priced at 1.83.
  6. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 I propose a different bet here. Over 2.5 is at 1.95 which is just way too high, considering that huge percentage Brazil team go over 2.5. I think that punters here are backing heavily unders because of H2H, which suggests very tight and goal-less match-up. However, apart from a friendly in 2011, the last game between the two was back at the World cup finals in Germany in 2006. Hardly relevant in my opinion. And the friendly they played in 2011 took place in February in Paris and finished 1:0. We know that in February and November there is a Wednesday, dedicated only to friendlies, which is amidst the football season, and which - unlike other official dates - does not involve a pause in the European leagues (meaning that international players play during the weekend, then travel to have a friendly with their national team in mid-week, and immediately return to play for their clubs few days later). For these reasons, these November and February friendlies are notoriously dull and boring, and rarely feature goal-fests. Therefore, I think that even the friendly in 2011 is not relevant in this respect. Home team is under immense pressure to finally get a decent win. However, no matter what they try, their defense is always too shaky and unstable. Even against England team which barely tried to attack (you know the typical Roy's style of parking the bus) they easily conceded twice. It will be very unlikely for them to keep a clean sheet tonight.I must take the overs, because I think they are a huge over-reaction of the market to data which is not so relevant. Over 2.5 @ 1.95
  7. Re: WC>Asia Qualifiers June 4th But aren't both teams more or less happy with a draw?! This will surely guarantee Japan a place at the Mondial and will also put Australia in a favorable position to decide everything at home against supposedly inferior opponents. If this is the case, I see rather dull and boring game.
  8. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Don't agree with these points. Actually I think for Mexico it is much more important to win this one, while for Nigeria it is just a friendly they probably don't care much. Mexicans had a surprisingly bad start of their campaign which brought huge media and public uproar in the country, which is used to be undisputable super-power in CONCACAF football. Mexicans really need to win this one to rebuild confidence before qualifications and to release a little pressure. Nigerians, on the other hands, are not comfortable at all in their qualification group. As a matter of fact, I think Nigeria is under much more risk of failing to qualify than Mexico. While in CONCACAF whole 3 places give direct promotion and one gives a play-off, Nigeria must win their group to proceed further. After they failed to win at home against Kenya (Nigeria equalised in the last minute), now they travel in Nairobi and if they lose, they will drastically reduce their chances of going through, as Kenya will have much easier games till the end.
  9. Re: Turkey > Super Lig > 2012-13 Wait, wait, wait......First, Besiktas have no chance for CL. The tie-breaker in Turkey is direct games and Fenerbahce have advantage, hence they are qualified already. Second, how did you come up with "Fenerbahce won the cup"?! The cup final is the following week. Third, Kayserispor have no chance for EL. The last spot will be given to Trabsonspor, regardless of how the final ends. Please, do some research before giving tips.
  10. Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May Definitely this is the better choice in such circumstances than going for a draw at 1.25. You have to over-stake at such low price and there is always the chance of the odd goal. And I still think that these games are not pre-arranged: it is just natural for both teams not to attack when they know a draw is good for them and when they see the opponent reaction on the pitch.
  11. Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May Anybody surprised with that score?! Still not sure if 1.25 was value or not. But what was the coefficient for 0-0?! Surely this could have been good value.
  12. Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May I would personally stay away from this match and I will surely not rely on "authorities monitoring the game". Here you got a game just an year ago from Spanish Segunda last round - Celta Vigo vs. Cordoba. Absolutely similar situation - both teams need a draw, one of them for direct promotion, the other for play-offs. Just have a brief look: Nobody gives a damn about authorities monitoring the game. Unless they intercept phone calls with direct proof of arrangement, they cannot do absolutely anything.
  13. Re: Newcastle United V Arsenal > Sunday 19th May Very much looks like under 2.5 to me. First of all, both Arsenal away and Newcastle in general (home and away) tend to be "unders" teams. Arsenal are solid in the back, but don't impress when going forward on the road - they rather try to nick "economic" results. Newcastle used to be one of the most "over"-prone teams in the league till January, when Ba was sold, several French players were brought in, who stabilised defensive performance, and a few of the injured players in the back returned. Focusing on the particular match, Newcastle is the team with little motivation here. Sure, they will play for their pride and great supporters, but I don't see them keeping high tempo and attacking much. I think they will try to upset Arsenal and will therefore be more defense-minded and looking for surprises on the break. Arsenal, on the other hand, are in a do-or-die situation. They must win and all that matters for them is the 3 points, no matter how they gain them. So, I expect Arsenal to be solid in the back once again and if they take the lead in this match, they will be much more concerned about keeping it than trying to score more. Anyway, I don't see how "unders" deserve 2.35 here. Any logical reason why "overs" will be considered so much more likely here?! I personally don't find any such reason in teams' stats, formations and motivation. In the best case "over" and "under" should be at par, but I would even price "over" slightly higher. Under 2.5 @ 2.35
  14. Re: Arsenal v Wigan Athletic > Tue 14th May The last two games?! The game last spring finished 1:2 for Wigan at Emirates and they obviously looked like scoring a goal. The last game was a December game in Wigan and I don't see what relevance it has to a decisive match in the end of the season where both teams need only victory and nothing else?! Of course Wigan will play defensive against Arsenal in a normal mid-season game, where draw is not a bad score for them. Now a draw automatically relegates them. Of course Arsenal will not attack wildly from the first minute away from home in a normal December game, where a draw still won't be a bad result. Now a draw will mean end to CL dream for Arsenal. I personally see no way that either team will keep a clean sheet here.
  15. Re: Manchester United v Swansea City > Sun 12th May I don't agree about comparing this match with usual title celebration games. Yes, if it was just for the title celebration, I wouldn't back United, because teams tend to be not very concentrated in such games. But this one is tremendous match for United - the last Old Trafford match of the legendary SAF. Even if SAF himself doesn't care so much, the players will surely want to fight like warriors from the first minute, to pay tribute and honor their boss. I wouldn't be surprised if I see Giggs running like a 20-year-old and the whole team chasing every ball and fighting for every inch of the ground. I don't think that an already "in holiday mod" and depleted Swansea can handle such attitude. United -1.5 United -2.5
  16. Re: Do you think this is a good bet? At least in my view, doing accumulators with high individual odds is the worst strategy. Such bets carry higher risk and should be taken only individually. Thus, if your selections are good, you will most likely be better off in total, while if you put them in combo, you can easily lose everything, because of one simple loss. And I see no point to look for additional bets, when you got already a single with 1.70-1.80. Of course, such combos with high odds are the only way for recreational players, who bet very small amounts. But this is just for fun and they can never be profitable.
  17. Re: Do you think this is a good bet? I absolutely agree with you. And combos in particular trigger the inherent and destroying human feature called greed. As you said, you tend to include more "certain bets" in your combo, and end up losing everything. Still, my experience shows that combos can be very efficient, but only if you play in the low price range and carefully select teams and games you are very well informed of (not like "Hey look, I never bet or watched Danish league in my life, but I see that the first plays the last, so this should be a clear win and I should take it"). But some rules must be obeyed: - never pick more than three selections, preferably two. - don't aim at total combo coefficient higher than 2. 1.70-1.80 is an optimal level.
  18. Re: Do you think this is a good bet? The main problem with combos is that the uncontrolled risk factor becomes much more significant in comparison with singles. By uncontrolled risk factor I mean something very unexpected and non-logical in the context of the game, which goes against your bet. For instance - a foolish referee mistake, a red card out of nowhere, one or two extremely lucky and undeserved goals. Such events might ruin your bet even if you perfectly analyzed and predicted the game development. When you play a single at coefficient 2.50, the chances that something very unexpected happen are relatively small, as they pertain strictly to this game. However, when you put three or four games in a combo, priced at the same 2.50, then there are several games in which something unexpected and out of the ordinary might happen in your disadvantage. In my experience, combos can be good in the cases where you discover value selections at low prices. For instance, many people believe that a Man City win over Wigan priced above 1.30 is good value, despite the low price. Supposedly, a Bayern win over Augsburg on Saturday, priced at 1.25, might also be considered not a bad value, as usually Bayern gets about 1.12 at home. If we assume that both picks are value, them by combining them, you get a good value pick at the decent price of 1.70.
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