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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Litex - Lybimets 2:1 Pick lost. Sorry, I overestimated Litex motivation - they started way too slow, move the ball around for too long and naturally helped the guests play bunker defense. The first half was wasted with few real chances, then Lybimets took surprisingly the lead in the beginning of the second half. Afterwards, Litex were all over them and netted two goals, could have scored a few more, but nevertheless, the slow start was the key to the loss of this bet.
  2. Re: Champions League > 27th & 28th August Basel - Ludogorets After earning good money from last week's encounter between the two, I think the return leg also offers wonderful betting prospects. This time I will focus on the goal market. I am very certain that both teams will score a goal tomorrow in Basel. Ludo is a very brave team and I know their mentality well - they realize that the tie is 99% decided, but nevertheless, they will have a go at Basel for sure. They have very many attacking options and I expect them to play very open football and create enough chances to score at least once. So far in European tournaments they have managed to score at least a goal in each of their visits (Dinamo Zagreb, Partizan and Slovan). I see no reason why they wouldn't do it tomorrow as well. Moreover, Basel's defense and goal-keeper seemed in bad condition in Sofia last week. I expect Basel to play also a relaxed and attacking football in front of their home crowd in an already decided tie. It is not certain whether their attacker Streller will be back for this match, but Saleh is in top form and the new forward signing Giovanni Sno has scored in Sofia last Wednesday and against Luzerne during the weekend. Basel will surely find the visitors' net at least once. All in all, I foresee a very entertaining and open football from both sides. Odds for over 2.5 are 1.70 atm, but I prefer to take both teams to score at higher price - 1.80. Over 3.5 goals can also be tried with smaller stakes. Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 (bet365) 10/10 certainty
  3. Re: Champions League > 27th & 28th August Legia is not a bad team, either, I am not underestimating them, but I definitely think that Steaua has bigger potential than them, and my opinion is not based only the game from last week, but from observing and betting on many games of both teams over the last year. At current odds, I believe Steaua to go through is value. By the way, I think it will be very very hard for Legia not to concede. If the Poles want to go through, they have to be prepared to score goals.
  4. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 My tip for tonight is for the last game of the round, featuring Litex and Lybimets. Lybimets is the big surprise of the league this year - they were at first place before the start of this round. Nevertheless, with all due respect to that team, I think they are more like a relegation material, and their sensational performance will be followed by huge drop and downtrend. Now Lybimets have big disadvantage as they are no longer being underestimated by their opponents and they are taken quite seriously. I think this is the game where Lybimets will be sorted out and shown what their real value is - fighting for survival. Litex is winning with many goals against lower class opponents - they defeated Neftohimik 4-1 at home and Pirin 5-1 on the road. They should score many goals against Lybimets tonight, as well. Litex have only one missing player - Brazilian winger Wander. He is a decent player, but not a key attacker and his absence won't hurt the goal prospects of Litex a lot. Litex have plenty of excellent attacking options which should provide plenty of goals against average defense like Lybimets'. Their Colombian striker Jordan is in hot former, the Albanian international winger Vayushi is playing great and is a constant threat, the Albanian attacking midfielder with Bundesliga experience Jazula is probably the most in-form player of Litex. From the bench they got Miro Manolov who is an established and experienced goal-scorer in A PFG and will be a good option to provide extra goals in the last 20 minutes of the match. I think Litex should score at least 3 goals and I like the odds for this, offered by bet365 - 1.80 at the moment. If you are a more adventurous punter and like to play at higher odds, I can recommend this game to try a higher amount of goals, like over 4.5 for instance. As I play with odds in the range of 1.50-2.00, I will go for: Litex to score 3 goals or more @ 1.80 (bet365)
  5. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 No, it wasn't a fix. I warned here before the game that CSKA has new owners, management and directors, and even if there was some sort of arrangement from last spring, it was done with the previous owners and is not likely that it will hold with the new people that run CSKA. The match was solid battle, but CSKA should have won if it wasn't for the stupid red card in the beginning.
  6. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 36th minute, score already 2:1, over 2.5 delivered very easily! :D
  7. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Botev-Slavia starts in an hour, and I like a lot the odds for over 2.5 goals at Sbobet - currently 2.04. I see no reason for the bookies to expect a low scoring game. All the games of Botev at home have been over 2.5 so far. H2H for the last year (since Botev returned to A League) have produced 3 over 2.5 out of 4 games. The only "under 2.5" game have been a return leg for the Cup after the tie has already been decided in the first game. Botev lost last home game in a surprising way from Lybimets and now they have big motivation to try to win convincingly and score a few goals. Slavia, on the other hand, won their first victory last week in a very attractive fashion - 3:1 against their Sofia rivals Lokomotiv. I liked a lot Slavia's performance in this game when they missed 6-7 excellent opportunities to make the score very big. I think Slavia has released some pressure after winning for the first time and will play with bigger self-confidence. This will mean Slavia will use more counter-attacking football and will not play cowardly bunker defense. Slavia counter-attacks can be very dangerous as they have very fast and sharp players like winger Galin Ivanov, attacker Kurdov and Brazilian players Diego Neves and Fernando Silva. I expect Slavia to score a goal here. Over 2.5 @ 2.04 (SBO)
  8. Re: Champions League > 27th & 28th August Legia-Steaua I will make an early bet here as I feel the price is incorrect. I happened to see quite a lot matches of both teams this season, and I consider Steaua much better team in much better shape than Legia. Steaua have been in excellent form and winning streak for over an year now. They dominating the completely the local league and they performed excellent so far in CL qualifiers. I watched the first leg with Legia and believe the 1:1 draw was a very unfair result - Steaua were all over Legia for nearly the whole match and missed a plethora of good chances. On a normal day, it would have been a good handicap home win. Steaua is also a very solid visitor, winning both their visits in CL qualifiers and performing very well on the road in Europa League groups. I didn't like Legia's performance in any of their 5 qualifying CL games this summer. Many punters of this forum placed bets on them at their visit to TNS and probably saw how much difficulty they had in both legs. They were very poor against mediocre Molde - they were very heavily outplayed in Norway (again a lucky draw) and were equal with their guests at the return leg (Molde could have even thrown them out with one man less on the pitch). I feel Legia's extreme luck is coming to an end soon. My only worry here is that Steaua will be missing Chiriches - the best defender in Romanian league, and Chipciu - their best midfielder. Chipciu has been a long-term absence and they have been doing well so far without him. Chiriches will be a blow, however, and his absence was probably the main reason for Steaua not to keep clean sheet in the first match. However, despite these two missings, I think Steaua is the big favorite to go through. They will 100% score a goal in Warsaw, and I wouldn't be surprised if they find the net a few times. The big question here will be how their defense will behave. I think that if Steaua manages to score the opener, they will almost certainly go through as they are a better and more experienced team than Legia. Steaua to Qualify @ 2.25 (Paddy)
  9. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Simeon, what you wrote is completely true, but there is one very important detail here. Loko Sofia indeed gifted the win to both Litex and Slavia as a return for the favors from the spring. However, over the summer CSKA switched ownership and now the team has completely new owners, directors and managers. The people who made the deal with Loko Sofia 3 months ago are not in CSKA anymore, hence I am not sure if the deal will hold with the new guys. In any case I don't recommend -1 EH even if the game is arranged, because this would only mean that Loko Sofia will gift the win to their visitors, but it doesn't mean they will have to lose by big margin - one goal will do. Nevertheless, even without arrangement, I feel CSKA is a good bet to win this match. Loko Sofia is missing two key players - best defender Branekov and most creative midfielder Tom. CSKA is a better team overall and they are finally finding their form - they were heavily behind in physical conditioning because they couldn't prepare properly during the summer because of the bankruptcy threat, but now they seem to have improved their fitness a lot. I feel CSKA is going to start some winning streak after their convincing victory over Neftohimik on Saturday. The mood in the team is also good as the first payments have been made by the new owners this week. CSKA to win would be my pick, but I don't recommend going very heavy on this, on the premise that the match will be fixed, because there is some good likelihood that the game will be real. But I still favor CSKA to win.
  10. Re: Champions League > 20th & 21st August Good win, but it didn't come as easy as it seems. Basel scored a quick goal, but were terrible for a long period afterwards - until they got behind on the scoresheet. Ludo didn't surprise me - they played their typical game with lots of pressure and quick passing football, but also with many mistakes in the back. However, before the 50th minute Basel showed very bad football - their first touch was really disappointing, their passes were badly aimed, and they seemed to be very disorganized in the back. Ludo was the better team in the first half and deserved to be in front, but some huge misses kept the score level at half-time. The second half started as terribly for Basel as the first half ended. Ludo pushed them hard and Basel were making silly defensive mistakes and couldn't take the ball out of their penalty area. Logically, Ludo took the lead and then something strange happened - after Ludo's second goal one would think that something happened with Basel and the guys who played for the Swiss team up to this point were secretly replaced by another and much better team. Basel's reaction was deadly - within ten minutes they gained complete control of the game, pushed Ludo back inside their penalty area, missed few good chances and scored two quick goals to regain the lead. Afterwards, the game was practically dead, as Ludo were shocked by the rapid comeback and lost the plot. Basel is indeed at least a class above Ludo and if they had shown more serious attitude from the beginning (during the first half their attitude was very sloppy as if it was some meaningless Europa League game), it would have been a very easy and big win. However, keep in mind for your future bets on Basel in Europe that their defense and goal-keeper is very disorganized and vulnerable. The tie is already decided, so the second leg is surely a no-bet for me, especially with this negligent attitude that Basel showed today.
  11. Re: Champions League > 20th & 21st August Ludogorets - Basel Basel @ 2.20 This is the bet of the week for me and I plan to go heavy on this one - 10/10. Ludo are decent team, certainly the best in my country, and they could have given Basel good fight if the game was played at their home ground in Rasgrad. However, their home stadium is not licensed for play-off rounds of CL (only for 1st and 2nd round). The game will be played at the national stadium in Sofia. This is going to be a big handicap for Basel here for several reasons. First, of course, it is about the supporters. The small stadium in Rasgrad would have been full and this would have given a boost to the home team, as the stands are very close to the ground. In Sofia this is going to be a completely different story. Rasgrad is a poor town, located at 4 hour drive from Sofia. In the best possible scenario, they can bring maximum of 1,000 local fans to Sofia. Therefore, the club has been doing a media campaign to bring more people from Sofia to support them from the stands, however, I don't think it will have any success. The football fans of the big Sofia teams CSKA and Levski really don't like Ludogorets (I can even use the word "hate"), as they are their rival and they are also a team who is enjoying very obvious support from referees and governing bodies of Bulgarian football, and I think the big majority of Sofia football fans will either have no interest in this game or they will want Basel to win. In the best case scenario, I expect 2-3,000 Bulgarian fans at the 40,000 stadium. If the game was in Rasgrad, we would have seen a full 10,000 stadium. Second very important aspect here is the size of the stadium field. Ludogorets Arena is a small pitch-stadium which perfectly suits Ludo style. They pressure very intensely with their midfield and their full-backs play like wingers. This is very good at small pitches (like in Rasgrad), as it helps them close down effectively any free space for the opposition, and allow the full-backs to quickly move back and forth. However, on the big pitch of Vasil Levski stadium it will be too hard for Ludo to press so deep and to close down spaces. Basel will be much more comfortable in possession here. Also, the brand style of Ludogorets to use extensively their full-backs in attack, can prove too dangerous here, as the quick and very technical Basel players will have too much space to exploit. And let's not forget that Ludo is a very inexperienced team at European stage (just 2nd season). They managed to win deservedly over Slovan and Partizan, but both opponents are very low level at the moment and are not even Europa League material. Basel is already several steps above and will be too much for Ludo, especially when they are deprived to great extent of their home advantage. I am sure Basel will win comfortably and with style here and will put an end to Ludo's fairy-tale in Champions League. The value here is big imo, even if we don't consider any other factors apart from the stadium. Even if the game was in Rasgrad, I would have considered anything above 1.80-1.90 on Basel as value. Now, in Sofia, I think the real away price shouldn't be higher than 1.45-1.50.
  12. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 It was really unbelievable. I got hit hard on this, too. German defense had this complete black-out in the first half - not only the three goals, but practically every time Paraguay crossed the midfield was danger. I wonder - is this black-out something that happens occasionally to this team - the same thing happened against Sweden?! Upfront, the Germans were missing outrageous chances - I lost their number, they even missed from the small penalty box in the last second of the game (Shurrle). Though, to be honest, in my betting data base I got the following note under "Germany" - "Avoid betting on Germany when Schweinsteiger is missing". I disregarded my own warning this time, thinking that Paraguay should be easy pray. Now, after watching the game, I am pretty sure the Germans wouldn't have been so extremely vulnerable at the back, had Schweini been there as defensive midfielder. Also, despite having created countless chances, it is a fact that against very poor Paraguay defense, German midfield wasn't working very well, especially in the second half, when it would take them too much time to change direction of the attack and often they provided sloppy balls.
  13. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 Brief recap - obviously lost the HT/FT, but the big stakes on FT totally made up for it. Also was able to get excellent in-live odds (2.10 for Bayern win at half-time). About the game - Bayern started with some fringe players in the first half, but nevertheless, they were many classes above Gyori, and it was a miracle they didn't score at least 2 goals before the break. They conceded after a lucky break for Gyori (their only chance). Bayern had some hard time in the first 10 minutes of the second half, when hosts made a bunker defense to protect the lead, but after the equalisier it was all Bayern and was again perfect time for live betting. Unlike teams like United who spare efforts in friendlies, Bayern are machines in such games and excellent money making prospects for punters.
  14. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 Today in Gyor, Hungary, there is an interesting friendly encounter between local Gyori - champions of Hungary, and German super-power Bayern Munich. The game is organized by Audi - sponsor of both teams. Most of you are aware Bayern had a game on Friday evening, however, what is more curious here is that Gyori had their league game tonight against Ferencvaros, which finished at 22:45 CET. So, about 17 hours later they are going to play Bayern Munich. Gyori tried to have the league game postponed, but Ferencvaros refused. Bookies give delicious price to Bayern, mainly because they expect many fringe players to feature for the Bavarians. However, this is the team list of Bayern, published on Gyori Eto official website (http://www.eto.hu/hir/6953/teljes_kerettel_a_bayern_-_itt_a_nevsor/): 1 Manuel NEUER 4 DANTE 5 Daniel Van Buyten 6 Thiago Alcantara 7 Franck Ribery 8 Javi MARTÍNEZ 9 Mario Mandzukic 10th Arjen Robben 11th Xherdan Shaqiri 13th Rafinha 15th Jan KIRCHHOFF 17th Jerome Boateng 19th Mario GÖTZE 21, Philipp LAHM 22, Tom STARKE 23, Mitchell WEISER 25th Thomas Müller 26th Diego Contento 27th David Alaba 30th Luis GUSTAVO 31, Bastian Schweinsteiger This is pretty much the best from Bayern. Even if the players from Friday get just few minutes, these who might feature for most of the friendly are very high class: Shaquiri, Alcantara, Gustavo, Martinez and Gotze (it was announced he is going to make his debut today). All in all, despite the inherent risk in friendlies, I simply cannot see past a comfortable Bayern win. They have been merciless in all their friendlies this summer, they have one more day to rest compared to the ridiculous 17 hours for Gyori, and they are going to field team full of world class players. I wanted to take some handicap, but they are not released yet. By the morning when supposedly handicaps prices will be quoted, I expect Bayern price to fall drastically, as most punters realize Bayern will not play with some youngsters but with most of their top players. Therefore, I take Bayern win at 1.50 with high confidence and stakes, and I also take Bayern HF/FT at 2.10, as I expect Bavarians will try do finish their job quickly in the first half against tired opponents.
  15. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 Mate, how is it that they were signed since Rangers cannot use them?! They can't have signed them just for friendlies, right?!
  16. Re: Bulgaria>A PFG>2013-2014 1.66 is very bad value. Loko Plovdiv is a decent team with plenty of experienced players and some really good strikers. Do you think it is worth it to play double chance against them for the reward of 1.66 coefficient?!
  17. Re: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round 1st Leg > 1st August This sentence should be written in bold, printed out and put at the desk of each bettor!
  18. Re: Club Friendlies 2013 Congrats, mate, but this was one of the luckiest picks I have seen lately. Bayern were all over them from 1st to last minute, it is a miracle they didn't put at least five in their net. I follow Brazilian Serie A and I was curious to see how a Brazilian team will match with Bayern. I should say the level of Sao Paulo is at best similar to this of Greuther Furth.
  19. Re: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round 1st Leg > 1st August
  20. Re: CL Third Qualifying Round > 30th - 31st July As a local guy (Bulgarian, but also with good outlook on Serbian league and Partizan) I have to say I totally agree with your analysis. Ludogorets played amazing game against Slovan and the score should have been 5-6 to nil for them, because they humiliated their guests. I should say that Ludogorets were also the better team in Bratislava, and in both games against Dinamo Zagreb last summer, but in all three games stupid mistakes in extra time costed Ludogorets a lot. They have experienced and good players, and many options to chose from in each zone. Partizan is in financial crisis and there is real danger of bankruptcy for the team. Which can be considered from different betting perspectives, as from one hand it should increase the tension upon them, but on the other hand it might be extra motivation to challenge for Cl, whose income may turn vital for Partizan's future. However, Grobari (gravediggers - Partzan nickname) have depleted squad at the moment, and their team is just way too young and lacking experience. They played bad against Shirak, and particularly in Armenia they deserved to lose by a few goals difference. They are unstable in defense, as well, as their key man - Bulgarian Ivan Ivanov, is set to leave for Basel. He may still start against Ludogorets, but he was having tensions with Partizan's management and board of directors over his transfer, so he might be lacking concentration, and this guy is very important for Partizan's defense ( I might argue he is the best defender in the whole Serbian league). Regarding weather conditions and support - it is too hot at the moment, but it should be very good weather on Wednesday - expected 27-28 degrees daily (so, around 25 during the game). Partizan usually brag with amazing support from the stands, however, due to the small capacity of Ludogorets Arena, not more than 400-500 away fans will be let at the stadium, the rest is sold out to the home fans. Should be Ludogorets victory unless they do their typical stupidity (outplay the opponent, miss chance after chance to finish them, and concede in extra time).
  21. Is there such place in the internet with detailed graphs of odds movements of football matches?! So far, I know asianbookie.com, but it shows odds movement only for most popular leagues, and it shows only pre-match movement, not in-play. Oddsportal have very rich archive but they only show the final price just before kick-off (no graph of movement). I guess betradar should do this job, but they are available only for bookies. Any suggestions?!
  22. Re: Facebook accounts/sites with "fixed games, 100%" Because these sites almost exclusively offer fixed half-time/full-time turn-arounds. And most Asian bookies don't even offer such half-time/full-time option, and fixed games money are almost exclusively placed in Asian bookies, because of stake limits. Also very often these sites "promote" the fix much earlier, i.e. "tomorrow we are going to offer you a 100% fixed game". However, in 99% of the cases fixed money bets are placed either within 1-2 hours before kick-off, or in live during the game. But you are right that fixes can be spotted through monitoring the Asian handicap line movement. However, it gives only approximate idea about the end result, not so precise. Like for instance, in Europa League thread I wrote that I suspect a fix between Daugava and Elfsborg two days ago, because of weird movements of the line. However, it was not certain with how many goals exactly Elfsborg will beat them - the line was showing that the market expects 4 goals difference (it indeed ended 0:4), but the price was still not so low - 1.50, which implied some level of hesitation. It was still quite obvious that at least 3 goal difference in favor of Elfsborg was a certainty, given the movements of the line.
  23. Re: UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round 2nd Leg > 23rd / 24th July There are a few very important factors here. First, it is crowd pressure - playing in front of big crowd, full of expectations, in most cases excludes playing in training tempo. Second, Cliftonville are not like these annoying minnow from Luxembourg, Liechtenstein etc., which park the bus regardless of the score in the first game and which celebrate 2:0 losses like victories - the Belfast boys will want to score a goal for sure. Third, Scottish league not under way yet, so it is important for the Hoops to maintain good fitness before their next qualifying round (in 7 days), when they will meet a much tougher opponent. If they had a game during the weekend, this could have affected Celtic's tempo today, but now I believe they will use this as a major preparation for next week. Besides live betting on Celtic goals and Gary Hooper's goals, I think there is decent value in bets that guests will nick a goal. They will surely go for it, and having said about the relationship between the two clubs, I can see Celtic defense being more negligent, especially in the last 20 minutes (and it is not a good defense anyway).
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