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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd Hahaha, I know that whenever Dinamo's bosses show arrogance and are "confident in the victory", they fail epically. :-) Like against Austria, which they treated like an amateur team. Well, I am telling you if they underestimate Ludogorets even one bit, they will get huge beating. Anyway, I think that it is very likely that both yours and mine pick are successful. 3:1 home win looks very likely.
  2. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd I also forgot another important detail about Ludo-Dinamo. All home games of Ludo in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals. And 2 of them were first legs of two-legged tie (hence, more cautious approach in general). Also, both Partizan and Slovan (their first two opponents) have much poorer attack than Dinamo Zagreb, which makes the over 2.5 here even more likely. I have no idea what are the bookies and the market arguments for believing this will be under-ish match. I smell good value on the overs.
  3. Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday October 3rd As a Bulgarian, who nonetheless is familiar with Dinamo, I advise caution here and attention not to over-estimate Ludo and underestimate Dinamo. First of all, I compare Ludogorets in class to Austria Wien, against which Dinamo won and dominated on their visit (although they lost dramatically the tie). Take a note - Dinamo have made very convincing games away from home in Europe this season, while they s*ck at Maximir. All their visits were victories, they played well and fully dominated their opponents. Second note and reminder - the match is not played at Ludo's home turf. It will take place in Sofia at the national stadium. I admit Ludo had more fans than I expected against Basel (around 10,000), when they again played in Sofia. But these were mainly clown fans, people who didn't show any real support and were there mainly for the free tickets (there are rumors Ludo actually paid some fans from Sofia to support them). Anyway, playing in Sofia in front of the quiet crowd and in the big pitch is completely different than playing at the small pitch in Razgrad in front of noisy crowd. Third, while Ludo played very defensive and counter-attacking against PSV, now they will be all about attacking football. That's how they played against Basel in Sofia, that's how they naturally play, so no reason to change this attitude against Dinamo Zagreb. The Croatian visitors are also generally more attacking side with weak defense, despite a few recent low-scoring games in their league. Draw is not a good result for them, hence they will try desperately to win this encounter. All in all, goals are much better option in this match. I am not at all sure in Ludo's win, as they don't feel comfortable playing in Sofia, and Dinamo are very good visitors. But there must goals in this one and I have no idea why bookies think the opposite and give such generous price for overs. Over 2.5 @ 2.11 (Pinnacle)
  4. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Simeon, although I am a big CSKA fan, I strongly not recommend such bet. The current price is 1.36 and it is complete joke, given that we (CSKA) have won just one away game so far - 1:0 against the last team Pirin in a very tough and close match. And Lybimets has better defense and more dangerous attackers than Pirin. CSKA struggles to create and to score goals, while Lybimets always parks the bus against big teams and plays on the counter with their fast players. CSKA creates one or two goal chances per game, which is very simply not enough, and if they don't materialize them, it goes easily to 0:0. Not worth the risk at all in my opinion. The way to go here is: BTTS - NO. Mybet gives 1.70 at the moment, and Marathonbet - 1.73 (but their limits suck). This is very good IMO, I wouldn't give more than 1.33-1.36 to such bet. CSKA have the best and most rock-solid defense in the league. CSKA have 6 clean-sheet out of 9 matches. The coach Mladenov is defensive-minded and very pragmatic. If CSKA takes the lead, I am quite sure he will try to ensure that his team doesn't concede and won't go for big score. Against Litex on Monday for instance, after taking the lead he fielded in play 2 holding midfielders which made the total number of defending midfielders on the pitch 4, and the total number of defensive players (without the keeper) - 8.The defense is in full squad and in excellent shape. Also, have in mind that CSKA had an extremely heavy and exhausting game on Monday against Litex. The Reds literally did ran like crazy for whole 90 minutes and they didn't outplay Litex to win - they simply outrun and outfought them. This expenditure of energy must take some toll against Lybimets. I expect a slow and quiet start from CSKA and goal-less first 30-40 minutes. The longer the score is 0-0, the less eager will Lybimets be to try any attacking action. Both teams to score: NO @ 1.70 (mybet)
  5. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Hello, this is my tip for the match Chernomorets - Slavia which starts in one hour. I think the odds for "over" are set way too high at the moment and I believe this game will be more "over"-ish. Both teams are at the same place in the table (divided by goal difference), and they are direct competitors for place among the first seven (hence, play-offs). So, neither of the two teams will be satisfied with a draw here. Slavia is a team which is set to play counter-attacking football. They have fast players, but they are not good in the gradual build-up, that's why they suffer against defensive units. And that's why they score more on the road, when the opposition plays more open football. Their top-scorer Kurdov is in great shape and will be the main danger. They have no important injuries/suspensions. Chernomorets doesn't have very good attacking players, but they create many chances. Against a top team like Levski Sofia last weekend, Chernomorets attacked heavily and had 5-6 great scoring opportunities, although they managed to score only once. On the other hand, Chernomorets central defense is a total mess. Brazilian defender Oliveira was terrible against Levski (stupid own goal and a number of vital mistakes), so he is out of the team today, but his replacement is a reserve guy with little playing experience. The last six games in Bourgas between the two teams featured 5 over 2.5 and only one under 2.5 (2:0). Over 2.25 @ 1.93 (SBO)
  6. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 So, here is the tip for today's match Botev-Cherno More (10/10 confidence) Botev is terribly hit by injury crisis. Their midfield and offense are missing 4 key players! The most important and best player of Botev - Todor Nedelev, just got injured and will be out till Christmas. A heavy blow for "the canaries" - he is the guy that makes work in creative as well as attacking plan for Botev. He is fast, excellent dribbler, a player with "outside the box" moves and thinking, and the one who carves open opposition defenses and brings much speed and cleverness to Botev's attacks. Without him, they are losing 1/3 of their offensive potential. Besides Nedelev, Botev are missing three other very important players. Best scorer and striker from last season Ivan Tzvetkov - long term injury, Marian Ognyanov - important winger with good pace and dribbling, Domovchiyski - a good striker with many years in Bundesliga. So, to sum up - Botev are missing their three best offensive players from last year - Nedelev, Tzvetkov and Ognyanov, and the newly purchased Domovchiyski, who has been also expected to play key role in the team. Surprisingly, the Canaries have no missings in their defense - all the 4 main defenders, the goal-keeper and the holding midfielders are fit. Cherno More is coming with full squad. They are the most under-ish team in the league and they have been such for over a decade. Last round they made one of the only two (out of nine games) "over 2.5" this season. Interestingly, both overs of Cherno More took place in Varna. Away from home they are 100% under 2.5. Last year games finished 0:0 (in Varna) and 3:1 (in Plovdiv), but two of the three goals for Botev were scored by players who are injured and unavailable tomorrow. I have been wondering between the "under 2.5" priced at 1.75 and the "Cherno More +1.25" asian handicap, priced at 1.80. I will go for the first option, as I see a 1:0 home win a very likely correct score here, and such result will eat much of the profit. Under 2.5 @ 1.75 (SBO)
  7. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 I have been showing some poor form lately, but I hope I will catch up, starting now. This is tip for tonight match between CSKA and Litex. I like the handicap for CSKA set by SBO - CSKA 0.00 @ 1.79. First of all, it is very unlikely that CSKA loses this game, hence I consider it a safe bet. CSKA has only one loss so far in the league - against the best team in Bulgaria Ludogorets, away from home. CSKA losing at their own stadium is extremely rare event, which doesn't happen more often than once per year or two years. CSKA indeed lost their last match against Litex in Sofia, but before that they were in a series of 14 home matches without a defeat against Litex Lovech in Sofia (11 wins and just 3 draws). So, as you see, Litex is traditionally very convenient guest for CSKA. CSKA is missing their winger Omar Kossoko (important player, good dribbling and pace), but they will have back in their team after suspension their best defender - central defender Jackson Mendy. Defensively CSKA is extremely stable - the best defense in the league, record for clean-sheets and very rarely let other teams have good scoring chances. CSKA attack have suffered so far, but I expect improvement with the arrival of Mamady Sidibe - attacker from Mali, who have played many years in Premiership and Championship with Stoke City. Also young forward Dolapchiev is scoring goals every time he plays (unfortunately he doesn't get many minutes usually). Litex is a good and very stable team, but they are desperately missing their major player for the last several seasons - attacking midfielder Georgi Milanov (transferred to CSKA Moscow). Their creativity is hugely reduced now and they have lots of trouble creating chances. Litex have excellent forward - Colombian Jordan, but the midfield fails to provide good balls. Litex can potentially steal a point from CSKA, but I don't give them much chance to win this match. I believe CSKA will win this game, but I don't advise the straight win, because of the problems that CSKA have with scoring goals. But as I said, I don't think CSKA will lose this match and believe they have at least 50% chance of winning it. So, the draw no bet is an excellent and safe option here. I think the game will end with a narrow CSKA win - 1:0. CSKA 0.00 @ 1.79 (SBO)
  8. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September No need to do this, mate. No matter how great and researched a bet is (and yours were outstanding), a price of 4.0-5.0 or more always involves a lot of luck. So, it would be stupid to put them in accumulator or increase the stakes. Heavy stakes are for "San Marino no goal" types of bets (hope after they score, now they stay goal-less for a few years). :D
  9. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September PSV started with different line-up than expected and with most key players on the field. I did as I wrote - waited till the 30th minute and took over 2.5 at very tasty odds. I can't believe what crappy attitude PSV showed - they were totally outplayed by Ludo, if Ludo were a little braver up-front, it would have been close to hammering. This stupid Europa league is still taking our money because of teams who treat the tournament like a friendly,
  10. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September Incredible, maestro!
  11. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September PSV expected line-up: Zoet; Brenet, Bruma, Zanka, Willems; Schaars, Maher, Toivonen, Park, Matavz, Depay. Definitely over 2.5 is the way to go with such line-up. Zanka is a reserve central defender with little practice lately and he is very poor IMO (I just recall a few games from last season when he totally screwed his team with inadequate performance). I like that Toivonen will play in the position of attacking midfielder. He kind of lost his place in the starting eleven to the young guys, although he is one of the most established players in the team. He will be very motivated and will surely not be taking this game easy. Also Matavz doesn't start regularly and has a lot to prove. Both Toivonen and Matavz and physically strong and tall, and will offer good battle to the tall and powerful central defenders of Ludogorets. On the flanks, PSV loses some strength without Bakkali, but the full-backs are the weakest part in Ludo defense, so Park and Depay should do good job. As I said Zanka is poor and I expect Ludogorets' attackers to make use of him. I see this being a very open encounter. Ludo doesn't play defensively away from home - the only exception was the match with Partizan in Belgrade.
  12. Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 19th September It is good to remind that PSV has very important game on Sunday - the big derby with Ajax. They will surely keep an eye with it. Otherwise, I agree with your analysis and I would have gone confidently with handicap bet if it wasn't for the game with Ajax. Now, I personally recommend live betting and over 2.5. Price of 1.60 is not that good, but a live-bet will give you overview of PSV's attitude and tempo, and within 10 minutes I guess that the Over 2.5 will reach satisfactory levels of 1.75-1.80. Ludogorets are more than capable of scoring and I believe they will do.
  13. Re: La Liga > 14th - 16th September Mustafa, Atletico is one of the teams with the most clean sheets in Primera, especially at home games. I wouldn't say they play necessary attacking football - they play very physical and aggressive pressure football, which is the reason why they so often keep clean sheets. The last ten games between the two teams shouldn't mean much, because they were played relatively long time ago, when Diego Simeone wasn't managing Atletico. Atletico with Simeone and without him are completely different teams with different styles.
  14. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Hello, this is my tip for the match of the Bulgarian football league between Pirin and CSKA which starts in about one and a half hours. I like the odds for away handicap win. CSKA have very big potential, especially after adding new signings in the recent weeks. The big problem of the team has been that they missed the summer preparation and they started their selection few days before the first league match (because of change of ownership). So, the team was lacking basic physical fitness and needed time for the players to stick together. Over the last three games CSKA's performance drastically improved, especially the physical component. Prior to that, CSKA players would fade away in the last 30 minutes, while in the last two matches they first managed with a goal down and man less on the pitch to entirely outperform Loko Sofia at their own stadium and to get a draw, and then they played their best game so far - against one of the two best teams in Bulgaria at the moment - Botev Plovdiv. CSKA dominated them and showed very good and cohesive performance. During the break for international football, CSKA had high intensity mountain camp for further improving physical conditioning. In the end of it, they had a friendly with the leader in Macedonian league Turnovo and CSKA destroyed them by 4:0 and totally dominated them technically and physically. This is a must-win situation for CSKA. Their fans are very demanding and despite the objective difficulties (the lack of summer preparation and late transfers), they already demand results and are dissatisfied with the many draws. CSKA now desperately needs to push on higher gear and accumulate points to improve their position in the table. They play against the weakest team in the group and a certain relegation material - Pirin. Last season CSKA won here by 5:0. CSKA misses only the suspended central defender Jackson Mendy. It should be easy and comfortable away win. CSKA -1.5 @ 1.78 (SBO)
  15. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September Are you sure about that?! I personally don't think so. I remember I had a bet on Shirak (Armenia) to keep clean sheet away at Tre Fiori (San marino). Armenian team conceded after an own goal. If your logic was true, then my bet should have won (Tre Fiori never scored, it was Shirak who scored in their own net). But it didn't. I think all that counts is to which team is the goal registered. So, it may be an own goal, but it is registered as a goal in favor of Netherlands for instance, then it still means that "both to score: no" is a winner.
  16. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September But can they claim it is palpable error?! Outrageous if they are allowed to.
  17. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 6th - 10th September But why would you back an underdog which plays against fully motivated and very high class opponent, when you have similar underdog price for Armenia against Czech Republic, where the class difference between the two teams is much smaller?! Even Iceland is priced 15 against Switzerland, and I feel these two are much closer in class than Portugal and Northern Ireland. I personally don't think H2H are of much importance when considering national teams.
  18. Re: Manchester United v Crystal Palace > Sat 14th September
  19. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 My next tip is for tonight's match between Lokomotiv (Plovdiv) and Lokomotiv (Sofia) The game is played at closed doors (due to punishment for Loko Plovdiv for unrest at the stands). This will hugely reduce the home advantage of Loko Plovdiv. Loko Sofia is just one place before the last, but their quality is much higher. They have some very experienced and class (for A PFG) players like Marquinos, Wellington, Bibishkov, Pisarov, Branekov, Trifonov - all of them have played with top teams in Bulgaria and have plenty of A PFG matches and goals in their records. Their coach Stefan Genov is also a very experienced and good specialist. Loko Plovdiv is close in quality to Loko Sofia in my opinion. All these facts make me believe that sooner or later these two teams will get closer together in the table. Tonight's game is a perfect occasion for the away team to mark their improved performance with some good result away from home. I think Loko Sofia will not lose this match and the handicaps look very generous. Loko Sofia +0.75 @ 2.20 (SBO)
  20. Re: Europa League - Thursday 29th of August I think he means that Besiktas are 99% administratively out of Europe, as it seems almost certain their appeal will be rejected by UEFA commission. So, most likely this game will be just for prestige.
  21. Re: Europa League - Thursday 29th of August My opinion is that this is very bad value. I would take 1.39 for a much bigger and more pronounced class gap than the one between Braga and Panduri. Portuguese Liga Sagres is surely stronger than Romanian Liga 1, but the difference is not so big, and it is made mainly by Porto and Benfica. By the way, last year Braga played in CL group stages against another Romanian outfit, which is similar in class to Panduri - CFR CLuj, and lost both games to the Romanians. Yes, things are different one year later, but my point is that Braga is not so much stronger than Panduri, as to make 1.39 a valuable price.
  22. Re: Champions League > 27th & 28th August You're welcome Waynecoyne. Sorry for the Basel tip. I should avoid betting on already decided second legs in the future. Game was played in a training tempo.
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