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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Bundesliga > October 18th - 20th This would not have any effect on the bet. Bet is based on the post-match report from the referee and the decision to replay the game will come afterwards from the Football Union.
  2. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Why do I hate to play correct scores?! :wall
  3. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Wales are clueless up-front on the road and now should be even worse with several important players out, including Bale. They barely created any opportunity against Belgium in the first leg. They scored once in Belgrade - a free-kick from Bale, and didn't approach the goal for the rest of the match. Couldn't create any danger in Croatia, as well as against Serbia at home. Wales is terribly short in creativity and power up-front at the moment. Against them there is one of the teams with best defenses in the world. They concede
  4. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Bulgaria-Czech Rep. should be over 2.5. Bulgaria misses a few key defensive players who are suspended - central defender Bodurov (red card vs Armenia), holding midfielder Dyakov (red card), full-back Minev (injury). All of them are regulars. Bulgaria's defense looked terrible against Armenia and even against Malta a month ago (4-5 clean chances for Malta and a goal for them). Bulgaria has slim chances to qualify for play-offs, but to do that, they need to win by 3 goals margin today. Coach Penev declared at press-confer
  5. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Follow Brazil very closely and I can say it is not worth trying any handicap. Just remember the game with South Africa, which was btw played at home soil in Brazil. RSA is very similar in style to Zambia and to majority of African nations, which play slow and defensive football. This Brazilian team has serious motivation problems when they play such "unattractive" teams. And the fact that the game is in Asia doesn't help in this respect either. It is worth expecting big Brazil victory against such opponent only when Brazilians have performed badly
  6. Re: World Cup CONCACAF Qualification > Wednesday October 16th Jamaica - Honduras Honduras needs just one point to secure place for the World Cup. They are the classier team, but Jamaica is hard to beat at home soil. Both teams extremely under-ish. Only one game of Jamaica in the hexagonal finished over 2.5 (1:2 to US). They are a very physical unit, with good defense, but zero creativity up-front - they simply rely on set-pieces and long shots. Honduras have scored in just one out of 4 visits in this WC hexagonal (2:1 in Mexico). They also play very tight on the road and rely on breaks
  7. Re: World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th Aren't the current price on Chile win too big?! Realistically the chances that Chile doesn't qualify this week for WC 2014 are 1-2%, and the chances that they don't qualify at all, with all respect to Jordan, are close to 0%. At the moment, they are 4 goals ahead of Uruguay on goal-difference and they have scored more goals, which make the difference more like 5 goals. I simply don't see any scenario where Uruguay crushes Argentina and Chile loses by more than one at home to Ecuador. I think the market is over-reacting wi
  8. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Today there are Cup games in Bulgaria. I am interested in Pirin-Levski The first game in Sofia finished 4-0 for Levski, so this is more or less a meaningless return leg. The last week has been shocking for Levski Sofia. After they failed once again at home against Loko Sofia last Friday, their coach Jokanovic was fired. Ivaylo Petet - two times title winner with Ludogorets, was appointed as new manager. At his presentation press-conference, a shocking event took place, which was shown in media all over the world. Angry fans of Levski physically
  9. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th They don't count the points earned against the last team in a group of 6. So, if England is 2nd in their group, they make another ranking only of the second teams and in the case of England will remove the 6 points earned against San marino.
  10. Re: World Cup South America Qualification > October 11th & 12th The bet of the day for me in South America is over 2.5 at Venezuela - Paraguay. Bookmakers overreact to the traditional tightness of South American qualifiers by giving away too generous prices on "over 2.5" on teams which don't have anymore any incentive to play cautious and defensive football and have plenty of potential up-front. Last round I profited nicely by taking deliciously priced and very easy "overs" at Venezuela-Peru and Paraguay - Argentina, and now I am very confident in another "over 2.5" in the encounter
  11. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th If you have unrestricted account with Marathonbet (the Russian bookie), I suggest taking the offer on -2.5 Romania against Andorra as soon as possible, because at the moment this price offers huge value which will surely be attacked by bettors in Asia this morning. Although at first sight this looks like a mug bet - Romania is nothing special atm and their attack suffers as the key strikers are not regulars for their teams, while Andorra's defense has tighten lately especially at home. However, here we have a special condition whi
  12. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th Аlso, about Armenia-Bulgaria, since I watched nearly all games of Armenia so far (no need to say that I watched all Bulgarian games), I have to warn anybody not to overestimate too much Armenia. They have more star-players than the Bulgarian team but they can only play counter-attacking football. They are really bad and predictable when they play against dense defense - against Malta they not only lost at home, but they nearly failed to make any good chance. So, if Armenia takes the lead here, they can easily win by 3-4 goal margin
  13. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th I agree with you that betting-wise the value is absolutely with the Armenians. They shouldn't be underdog at home against Bulgaria. However, I don't like to bet against the team I cheer for. So, if I play this one, it will be the cards market for sure, which I consider a very good bet.
  14. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th Small correction - Armenia are not in a winning streak as they already lost their last match - 0:1 in Erevan to Denmark. Also, Armenia practically has no chance for play-offs after losing to Denmark. Even if they somehow manage to grab 2nd place, which is almost mission impossible (they are behind both Bulgaria and Denmark and they have to visit Italy), they have less than 1% chance to be among top second teams which qualify for play-offs. Otherwise, I like your pick. I also think this should be a nervy match with lots of tack
  15. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th It is not a good bet in my opinion. What happened in Minsk shouldn't have much to do with what will happen in Spain. We all know for sure that if this was a "do or die" match for Spain, they would have won with a minimum of 3 goals, but the big problem is that it is a more or less meaningless game for the Spaniards. So, nobody outside of their dressing room can guess correctly what their mood will be for this match. Anyways, the odds are terribly deflated at the moment. If Spain decides to play their lazy game (walking tempo, 1
  16. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 You must be joking, right?!
  17. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th I agree. This can potentially turn into very close 50/50 encounter. Greece usually gets the job done at home, but they struggle a lot, even against much weaker teams. Slovakia are full of good players and they changed their coach recently. I would never back Slovakia at home, because of their inconsistency, but they are not a bad option to back when they are underdogs on a visit, especially against teams who struggle to score goals like Greece.
  18. Re: Norway > Tippeligaen > 2013 Can you give some source?! Sounds very dubious, I just have no idea where such money can come from - from the 2-3,000 people attending the games or from TV rights for a product, which no non-Norwegian will ever watch, except for betting reasons (and then he will still watch it across the internet).
  19. Re: Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham > Sunday October 6th Don't want to spoil the party, but why would simple home win at 1.50 be a gift?! It is a London derby with all its inherent uncertainty, but what is more important here is that last season Tottenham struggled at home exactly against opponents with the profile of WH - defensive and physical units who park the bus nicely. Just remember their games with Fulham, Stoke, WBA, Norwich, plus a number of other home matches taken only through some sparks of genius from Bale. Arguably they improved this season, but still there is not good enough
  20. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Slavia - CSKA 0-1 FT 6th consecutive winning tip! :nana Nice response to some bad results two weeks ago.
  21. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 This is my tip for the match Slavia - CSKA which is scheduled for today afternoon. Usually I prefer to attack high (weak) lines, but this time I make an exception and will go for a line that is set low (supposedly stronger line). I think this match will be very under-ish and will go for the under 2.25 Asian goal-line. CSKA has the best defense in the league and manager who has reputation for always building great defenses. At the moment the team is in a series of 5 consecutive clean-sheet games. CSKA has 8 clean sheets in total out of 11 match
  22. Re: Croatia > Prva HNL > 2012-13 I have to warn you, mate - I am not so familiar with Croatian league, but I have read reports from Croatian tipsters in other forums, which declare that Rijeka and Dinamo are "friendly teams" and Rijeka is like the "sister club" of Dinamo. They are constantly getting cheaply young players from Dinamo. The Croats claim that whenever the match is important for Dinamo, Rijeka always plays very light and unmotivated against them and loses easily. And Dinamo really needs a victory at the moment, to build at least a little confidence. As I said, I am no
  23. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Levski - Loko Sofia 0:0 Good start of the weekend!
  24. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 This is my tip for Levski Sofia - Loko Sofia, which is scheduled for today. I think the Asian line on the home team is set too high and therefore I will back the guests on the handicap. Levski at home managed to cover -1.5 handicap only once - last time against Neftohimik. This game finished 6:0, but I won't read much into it, because Neftohimik are pathetic team, and there are strong and justified doubts that they are losing matches with big results deliberately. It is no accident that Neftohimik's match is the only one not included by any book
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