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Fedar

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Everything posted by Fedar

  1. Re: Bundesliga > October 18th - 20th This would not have any effect on the bet. Bet is based on the post-match report from the referee and the decision to replay the game will come afterwards from the Football Union.
  2. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Why do I hate to play correct scores?! :wall
  3. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Wales are clueless up-front on the road and now should be even worse with several important players out, including Bale. They barely created any opportunity against Belgium in the first leg. They scored once in Belgrade - a free-kick from Bale, and didn't approach the goal for the rest of the match. Couldn't create any danger in Croatia, as well as against Serbia at home. Wales is terribly short in creativity and power up-front at the moment. Against them there is one of the teams with best defenses in the world. They conceded just three goals so far, as far as I remember - 2 from Croatia and 1 from Serbia. Belgium to win to nil @ 1.66 (bet 365) is very good option. Also Belgium -2 AH @ 2.05 is very good bet, and I think in the worst case it will be void. I personally don't see any value in Wales +2AH, because their defense has been terrible throughout the qualifiers and Ashley Williams out doesn't help much. Belgium didn't trash any of the opponents so far, but to be honest, most of their score-lines were very surprising and undeserved, as Belgium created countless clear-cut chances in these games and realistically a few of these matches should have finished with a thrashing.
  4. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th Bulgaria-Czech Rep. should be over 2.5. Bulgaria misses a few key defensive players who are suspended - central defender Bodurov (red card vs Armenia), holding midfielder Dyakov (red card), full-back Minev (injury). All of them are regulars. Bulgaria's defense looked terrible against Armenia and even against Malta a month ago (4-5 clean chances for Malta and a goal for them). Bulgaria has slim chances to qualify for play-offs, but to do that, they need to win by 3 goals margin today. Coach Penev declared at press-conference that "the team is going to take more risks than normally today". I don't think they will have any realistic chance to do so, but they will try to play entertaining football for the 30,000 crowd expected on the stands. It is important to note that Bulgarian defense is not good, but so far in the qualifiers it has been protected by the over-defensive tactics, chosen by Penev. It is curious to see how the defense will perform when they are not over-protected from the midfield. I am sure the Czechs will score at least once. Czech Republic changed their coach and this should provide some positive effect on the team at least in the short run. I expect them to play relaxed and open football. They already had one game under new coach - a very good 4:1 win over Malta. Indeed, not a strong opponent, but still very few teams in the last years have managed to score 4 goals in Malta. The Czech should continue their attacking approach now that they have nothing to lose. Over 2.25 @ 1.82 (SBO)
  5. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Follow Brazil very closely and I can say it is not worth trying any handicap. Just remember the game with South Africa, which was btw played at home soil in Brazil. RSA is very similar in style to Zambia and to majority of African nations, which play slow and defensive football. This Brazilian team has serious motivation problems when they play such "unattractive" teams. And the fact that the game is in Asia doesn't help in this respect either. It is worth expecting big Brazil victory against such opponent only when Brazilians have performed badly in their previous match and have been heavily criticized for this - Brazil - China 8-0 (after just 1:0 vs South Africa), Brazil-Iraq 6-0 (after the stadium was shouting for coach Manu Menenzes resignation in the previous friendly with Argentina's reserves), Brazil-Australia 6-0 (few days after loss against Switzerland). From Zambia I expect nothing but defending and being happy to get a decent result (small loss) here. I see this match as 2:0 Brazil victory. Anyway, the win to nil bet might be very good option.
  6. Re: World Cup CONCACAF Qualification > Wednesday October 16th Jamaica - Honduras Honduras needs just one point to secure place for the World Cup. They are the classier team, but Jamaica is hard to beat at home soil. Both teams extremely under-ish. Only one game of Jamaica in the hexagonal finished over 2.5 (1:2 to US). They are a very physical unit, with good defense, but zero creativity up-front - they simply rely on set-pieces and long shots. Honduras have scored in just one out of 4 visits in this WC hexagonal (2:1 in Mexico). They also play very tight on the road and rely on breaks with fast attackers Costly and Bengston. Even if Honduras didn't need just a draw, I would have been extremely surprised to see more than 2 goals in this match. Now I am absolutely confident in such bet. Under 2 goals @ 1.91 (Dafabet) 10/10 Draw @ 3.25 (Bet365) 5/10
  7. Re: World Cup South America Qualification > Wednesday October 16th Aren't the current price on Chile win too big?! Realistically the chances that Chile doesn't qualify this week for WC 2014 are 1-2%, and the chances that they don't qualify at all, with all respect to Jordan, are close to 0%. At the moment, they are 4 goals ahead of Uruguay on goal-difference and they have scored more goals, which make the difference more like 5 goals. I simply don't see any scenario where Uruguay crushes Argentina and Chile loses by more than one at home to Ecuador. I think the market is over-reacting with these draw price. Okay, if it was a do-or-die thing, I would agree, but now the danger for Chile and Ecuador is almost non-existent. And I think Chileans are in tremendous form at the moment and a real powerhouse at home. They will be extra motivated by their huge and amazing crowd at Santiago de Chile. Ecuador is a decent team, but they are a typical home team with poor results as visitors. For me personally, the value here is clearly on Chile Chile @ 2.63 (Pinnacle)
  8. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Today there are Cup games in Bulgaria. I am interested in Pirin-Levski The first game in Sofia finished 4-0 for Levski, so this is more or less a meaningless return leg. The last week has been shocking for Levski Sofia. After they failed once again at home against Loko Sofia last Friday, their coach Jokanovic was fired. Ivaylo Petet - two times title winner with Ludogorets, was appointed as new manager. At his presentation press-conference, a shocking event took place, which was shown in media all over the world. Angry fans of Levski physically attacked the new coach and undressed him. Here is a video from the accident - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m8LVzfD46Y. As a consequence, Ivaylo Petev resigned. The sports director of Levski and club legend Nasko Sirakov also resigned. Three people were appointed to be coaching Levski together on a temporary basis - they are former footballers of the team with little coaching experience. The events from the last days have been shocking for fans and players of Levski. This meaningless match is surely not amongst their priorities at the moment. Next week is the big derby of Bulgaria against CSKA and the Blues won't risk any injury or suspension, and are expected to field a few youngsters. I would have taken Pirin handicap, but I guess they won't treat this game very seriously, as well. They are already out and have more important mission to concentrate on - fighting for survival in the league. Therefore, I predict a boring game with few scoring chances and few goals. The goal-line at the moment is set too high and doesn't take into account the current situation. Under 3.5 @ 1.70 (SBO)
  9. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th They don't count the points earned against the last team in a group of 6. So, if England is 2nd in their group, they make another ranking only of the second teams and in the case of England will remove the 6 points earned against San marino.
  10. Re: World Cup South America Qualification > October 11th & 12th The bet of the day for me in South America is over 2.5 at Venezuela - Paraguay. Bookmakers overreact to the traditional tightness of South American qualifiers by giving away too generous prices on "over 2.5" on teams which don't have anymore any incentive to play cautious and defensive football and have plenty of potential up-front. Last round I profited nicely by taking deliciously priced and very easy "overs" at Venezuela-Peru and Paraguay - Argentina, and now I am very confident in another "over 2.5" in the encounter two of the teams involved in "overs" last time. After watching several matches of Paraguay lately, I rate them as extremely dangerous on the break, where they can score with ease against almost anyone. On the other hand, I disagree with Nicko about their defense - it is a complete joke, and it was once again disclosed by Argentina which scored 5 goals in Asuncion with absolute ease. A very important factor here, which is key for my bet - in the match against Argentina, Paraguay never really seemed to bother about playing tight and containing their mighty guests. Paraguayans attacked non-stop and kept their defense often unguarded. Probably away from home they will a bit more cautious, but anyway, as I said, they are good on the break, and I see no reason why they will be afraid to open up against Venezuela in a meaningless game. For Venezuela this game has some importance, but mainly in theory. Their chance to reach Uruguay for the play-off place is more like science fiction. So, I think they will be very relaxed and will try to play entertaining game for the crowd in their last match in the qualifiers. Like they did against Peru a month ago. The team news also look promising for over 2.5 bets. Oscar Cardozo is finally back in the Paraguay team after long absence, and together with Roque Santa Cruz and Edgar Benitez will provide strong power in visitors' attack. The bad news here is the absence of Venezuela top striker Salomon Rondon. Hence, the home attack is expected to be led by Miku (Al Gharafa, 10 goals for national team) and Josef Martinez (Thun, 2 goals for nat. team). Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO)
  11. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th If you have unrestricted account with Marathonbet (the Russian bookie), I suggest taking the offer on -2.5 Romania against Andorra as soon as possible, because at the moment this price offers huge value which will surely be attacked by bettors in Asia this morning. Although at first sight this looks like a mug bet - Romania is nothing special atm and their attack suffers as the key strikers are not regulars for their teams, while Andorra's defense has tighten lately especially at home. However, here we have a special condition which is very rare in such encounters between decent teams and huge underdogs. Romania needs to score as many goals as possible in order to improve their difference, because they are six goals behind Turkey (level points). Although 6 goals difference seems a lot, Romania plays against Andorra and Estonia at home, which means excellent chance to improve their goal difference. I think this bet needs no more reasoning and explaining. I have watched plenty of such internationals where a minnow nation is involved, and in 90% of the cases the favorite plays in a training tempo with one third of their potential (and nevertheless wins with ease). If it was a normal match, I would have expected Romania to play exactly like this against Andorra and win by 1-2 to nil. That's what happened in Bucuresti - Romania played in a slow training tempo, led by 2:0 by the 90th minute when they got 2 extra goals (not that they were really chasing for them) for a final 4:0 win. Now we got the rare case when the favorite - a decent European team like Romania, will play with nearly 100% of their potential against Andorra. In my view, this means that the chance of covering this -2.5 spread is probably higher than 80-90%, which implies huge value at current odds. It is curious enough that at the moment (17 hours before kick-off) no other bookie besides Marathon have quoted any price on any handicap on this match. This means only one thing - bookies are very confused about determining the correct odds here and prefer to wait for others to quote prices and the market to correct them. To add extra flavor to this bet, Andorra's regular goal-keeper and two regular defenders are missing. Not that it should matter so much - they are all amateurs or semi-amateurs. What will be important here is that the much stronger Romanian will be pushing hard from the first till the last minute to get good scoreline. Romania -2.5 @ 1.72 (Marathon) 10/10
  12. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th Аlso, about Armenia-Bulgaria, since I watched nearly all games of Armenia so far (no need to say that I watched all Bulgarian games), I have to warn anybody not to overestimate too much Armenia. They have more star-players than the Bulgarian team but they can only play counter-attacking football. They are really bad and predictable when they play against dense defense - against Malta they not only lost at home, but they nearly failed to make any good chance. So, if Armenia takes the lead here, they can easily win by 3-4 goal margin. But if Bulgaria scores first, it will be extremely hard for the Armenians to get back in the game.
  13. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th I agree with you that betting-wise the value is absolutely with the Armenians. They shouldn't be underdog at home against Bulgaria. However, I don't like to bet against the team I cheer for. So, if I play this one, it will be the cards market for sure, which I consider a very good bet.
  14. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th Small correction - Armenia are not in a winning streak as they already lost their last match - 0:1 in Erevan to Denmark. Also, Armenia practically has no chance for play-offs after losing to Denmark. Even if they somehow manage to grab 2nd place, which is almost mission impossible (they are behind both Bulgaria and Denmark and they have to visit Italy), they have less than 1% chance to be among top second teams which qualify for play-offs. Otherwise, I like your pick. I also think this should be a nervy match with lots of tackles flying around and maybe some conflicts on the pitch, as in the first game.
  15. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th It is not a good bet in my opinion. What happened in Minsk shouldn't have much to do with what will happen in Spain. We all know for sure that if this was a "do or die" match for Spain, they would have won with a minimum of 3 goals, but the big problem is that it is a more or less meaningless game for the Spaniards. So, nobody outside of their dressing room can guess correctly what their mood will be for this match. Anyways, the odds are terribly deflated at the moment. If Spain decides to play their lazy game (walking tempo, 1 billion passes, Iniesta, Cesc and Xabi annoyingly slowing down every attack), it could easily finish with just a minimal home win. Just remember Spain-Finland 1:1 and Spain-China 1:0 (winner, scored in 86th minute against a terrible team) - both games played within the last 15 months. I would personally recommend only live-betting here. And I feel that if Del Bosque gives chance to guys who are not regulars (Michu, Mata etc.), it will actually strengthen a lot the Spanish team and they could achieve good handicap. But if they start again with the slow, bored and lazy Iniesta, Xabi, Cesc and the tiki-taka, I don't recommend any bets.
  16. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 You must be joking, right?!
  17. Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th I agree. This can potentially turn into very close 50/50 encounter. Greece usually gets the job done at home, but they struggle a lot, even against much weaker teams. Slovakia are full of good players and they changed their coach recently. I would never back Slovakia at home, because of their inconsistency, but they are not a bad option to back when they are underdogs on a visit, especially against teams who struggle to score goals like Greece.
  18. Re: Norway > Tippeligaen > 2013 Can you give some source?! Sounds very dubious, I just have no idea where such money can come from - from the 2-3,000 people attending the games or from TV rights for a product, which no non-Norwegian will ever watch, except for betting reasons (and then he will still watch it across the internet).
  19. Re: Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham > Sunday October 6th Don't want to spoil the party, but why would simple home win at 1.50 be a gift?! It is a London derby with all its inherent uncertainty, but what is more important here is that last season Tottenham struggled at home exactly against opponents with the profile of WH - defensive and physical units who park the bus nicely. Just remember their games with Fulham, Stoke, WBA, Norwich, plus a number of other home matches taken only through some sparks of genius from Bale. Arguably they improved this season, but still there is not good enough sample of home games to be sure that Tottenham have become more convincing at home, especially against defensive teams like West Ham.
  20. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Slavia - CSKA 0-1 FT 6th consecutive winning tip! :nana Nice response to some bad results two weeks ago.
  21. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 This is my tip for the match Slavia - CSKA which is scheduled for today afternoon. Usually I prefer to attack high (weak) lines, but this time I make an exception and will go for a line that is set low (supposedly stronger line). I think this match will be very under-ish and will go for the under 2.25 Asian goal-line. CSKA has the best defense in the league and manager who has reputation for always building great defenses. At the moment the team is in a series of 5 consecutive clean-sheet games. CSKA has 8 clean sheets in total out of 11 matches. Only 4 of these 11 games have gone over 2.5. Curiously enough, two of them were the last two matches of CSKA - two 3:0 victories away in Lybimets and at home against Chernomorets. I somehow doubt that this very under-ish CSKA will make three over 2.5 in a row, especially when they visit a tough opponent for the "small Sofia derby". Besides, the over 2.5 in Lybimets was achieved mainly because of a red card for the home team, followed immediately by a goal from the free kick, for which the red card was shown. And the over 2.5 in Chernomorets was logical, because the guest team had one of the worst defenses in the whole league. The head-to-head shows that when played at Slavia's venue, this match is very low scoring. The last 4 matches were under 2.5 goals. Moreover, it is interesting to see the personal statistics of CSKA coach Stoycho Mladenov against Slavia at their stadium. He played six matches there over the years with CSKA and 5 of them were under 2.5 goals. Slavia shows mixed performances in relation to goals - sometimes their games feature many goals, sometimes they are goal-less. So, it is hard to determine whether this team is over-ish or under-ish. However, they are clearly a counter-attacking team. They are not good in the gradual build-up. They have excellent forward in the face of Kurdov, but nevertheless, their attacks are very one-dimensional and dull, unless they catch their opponents on the break. However, it will be very hard to surprise CSKA with counter-attacks, because the Reds have excellent defensive midfielders and pressure heavy and deep into opposition's area. CSKA also plays slower football with methodological build-up of their attack, so it is very rare for them to leave dangerously uncovered areas. So, I think it will be very hard for Slavia to score even one goal here. On the other hand, as I mentioned I don't see CSKA scoring 3 goals by themselves for third consecutive match. CSKA's attackers statistics is simply terrible - the best scoring forward is youngster Dolapchiev, who is a substitute player and has about 200 minutes altogether since the start of the season.CSKA relies on midfielders and defenders (from set pieces) to get goals. It is good to remember that next round CSKA plays Levski - their biggest rival and the biggest rivalry in the whole league, known as "the eternal derby". CSKA coach Mladenov is known for being extremely pragmatic. Knowing him very well, I am confident that if CSKA gets 2-0 advantage, he will instruct his players to slow down the rhythm and simply keep possession and defend well till the end. He rarely aims at big score-lines and he will be very aware that none of his players picks up an injury or suspension before the match with Levski. Under 2.25 @ 1.85
  22. Re: Croatia > Prva HNL > 2012-13 I have to warn you, mate - I am not so familiar with Croatian league, but I have read reports from Croatian tipsters in other forums, which declare that Rijeka and Dinamo are "friendly teams" and Rijeka is like the "sister club" of Dinamo. They are constantly getting cheaply young players from Dinamo. The Croats claim that whenever the match is important for Dinamo, Rijeka always plays very light and unmotivated against them and loses easily. And Dinamo really needs a victory at the moment, to build at least a little confidence. As I said, I am not very familiar with this league, but know for sure that when in the Balkans a team is a "sister club" of bigger team, then they lose way too often against this opponent.
  23. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 Levski - Loko Sofia 0:0 Good start of the weekend!
  24. Re: Bulgaria > A PFG > 2012/13 This is my tip for Levski Sofia - Loko Sofia, which is scheduled for today. I think the Asian line on the home team is set too high and therefore I will back the guests on the handicap. Levski at home managed to cover -1.5 handicap only once - last time against Neftohimik. This game finished 6:0, but I won't read much into it, because Neftohimik are pathetic team, and there are strong and justified doubts that they are losing matches with big results deliberately. It is no accident that Neftohimik's match is the only one not included by any bookie this weekend. Most of the goals of Levski in that game were complete comedy - like for instance, their defensive midfielder Gadzev dribbling past 4 opposition players like Diego Maradona and scoring (and believe me, he has nothing to do with Maradona). So, the conclusion is that Levski struggles a lot at home - in fact they won only once - the above mentioned suspicious match with Neftohimik.If we exclude this match and include also their home game from Europa League against Irtysh Kazakhstan, we will see that Levski scored just 2 goals in 5 home games and the opposition managed whole 3 cleansheets at Levski's stadium. Levski will be missing their key striker Genkov. His replacement is Makriev - a striker with decent reputation, but with very dubious form, as he hasn't been able to find the net yet, and he didn't even manage to score a goal against the comedians from Neftohimik, when a defensive player scored a hat-trick for Levski. This speaks enough for Makriev's current condition - so, Levski with weakened attack. Also, Levski will be without their injured captain Stanislav Angelov (midfielder) - aging player, but still important for his vision and creativity. French midfielder Kevin Bru is expected to be given a rest from the coach, but this is not a big loss, as his form is terrible. As far as I am aware, Loko Sofia's major missing will be attacker Bibishkov, but he anyway doesn't get much playing time this season, so this shouldn't influence much the outcome. There are reports that 4 other players of Loko Sofia picked up some injuries and it will be decided on match day whether they will play, but as far as I am aware, these are mind games and all the dubious players will be available. Loko Sofia are a team of fighters - they have strong physical players, who like to tackle heavy and fight for each ball. Not the best match-up for current Levski team which is very soft in challenges and which prefers playing against more technical sides. I have been betting on Loko Sofia for two months, because I have been forecasting their imminent rise in form and performance - they have good players and coach for Bulgarian League, and they were among the last two teams for long period. Finally, in the recent few weeks the progress in Loko Sofia game is more than obvious. I am a little worried by Loko's propensity to concede goals, especially away from home. They conceded 3 from Slavia and Loko Plovdiv, and 2 from Lybimets and Cherno More. However, most of these matches were in the beginning of the season, when Loko were out of shape, and their new signings haven't joined or haven't adapted yet. Also, Loko played much more offensive and open football against teams like Slavia and Cherno More, for instance, while against Levski I am confident they will park the bus - a tactics which heavily frustrates Levski as have been seen on numerous occasions lately. The H2H doesn't speak in favor of my bet, as Levski won 4 out of 4 of their last home games with Loko (twice covering the handicap), but I rate the current team of Levski weaker than their predecessors, and the present Loko - stronger than before. Another important factor here is the weather and starting time - the game starts at 3 pm on a working day, so there will be very few people on the stands to support the home team. Moreover, weather in Sofia is surprisingly chilly for this time of the year. It feels more like early December. Loko Sofia +1.5 @ 1.92 (SBO)
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